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Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)
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MTs thoughts from NW
I think we may see improvements or trends closer to current outlier GFS pert 13, in large part because the low developing in eastern North America may not be as fast to develop or move northeast after 72h. There is already a weakening trend in the Greenland PV and a stronger vortex near Baffin Island. It would not take much from the current starting point to throw the balance back towards blocking and Scandinavian high building. Watch for this trend to appear in the next 24-36h of model runs.0 -
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Sponge Bob wrote: »
Wild Bill, do your local crows as well so we can get to quasi mesocscale on the crows as soon as.
My locals are all rooks....
The ole Corvus frugilegus (L) ...and frankly they are not a patch on the hooded crow when it comes to forecasting; but their hindsight is 20/20/20/20 - which is even better than some of the punters on these weather threads :cool:0 -
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Just what the local rooks are indicating by their flight patterns and other secret signs.
But that's good!
They are hopeless at telling weather going forward.
Snow on 20th January - remember where you heard it first - and it wasn't in the damn rookery 0 -
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Just what the local rooks are indicating by their flight patterns and other secret signs.
But that's good!
They are hopeless at telling weather going forward.
Snow on 20th January - remember where you heard it first - and it wasn't in the damn rookery
Ok Wild Bill, I am going to hold you to that so! Snow boots out on the 20th January!!:D
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The best we have expected would be frost over the weekend. I have not seen anything suggesting snow was planned this weekend. I think the 21st we might seen some more indication of colder conditions. I see from the weather the winds are from the south east over the weekend.
Hi Lucreto, predicting any decent cold spell is like the proverbial donkey and carrot. We never seem to get the carrot (snow) as its always just out of reach (ie the following weekend etc...). Oh why do we torture ourselves with these weather charts?!!:D
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Hi Lucreto, predicting any decent cold spell is like the proverbial donkey and carrot. We never seem to get the carrot (snow) as its always just out of reach (ie the following weekend etc...). Oh why do we torture ourselves with these weather charts?!!:D
D
True but like Wild Bill said next week might be more likely for wintery conditions. That is where I am placing my flag and if it doesn't happen it doesn't happen and I will be writing off the winter at that point.
I skimmed through the previous pages and I have not seen many serious posts on cold this weekend. Most people see this weekend a starting point for cold conditions and according to the weather on 9.30 there will be frost this weekend.0 -
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I think we have missed the chance of that easterly occuring inside the next 10 days- I know FI is +96hrs at the moment but given all the model output and the fact that we need certain things to happen inside this timeframe I am 90% sure we have missed the boat. (the first one anyway
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**There are still a few ens members that give us the undercutting low inside +120hrs and deliver an easterly soon after-The chance of this happening is about 5% I reckon**
BUT I am sure we will get another chance at a pattern change at around day 10- as the PV moves out of greenland ala 18z GFS-and it also shows the Jet heading much further south than the 12z, I suppose that just proves how volatile model output is at the moment. But the Jet has to move south eventually so why not now? (or in 10 days) Also the Aleutian high will start rebuilding accross the pole from about day 10, giving us another chance at High pressure linking up accross the arctic and keeping the PV somewhat split/building heights around svalbard.
Overall I expected things to happen quicker than they appear to be happening, it seems its going to be a slow process but I am sure we will atleast get another few chances of a pattern change to colder weather before its too late. Someone mentioned this winter being over- Maybe you are right but who's to say february wont be a repeat of last december? Or even feb 1933/47/56/63/mid-80's/1991 or 2009??
I think that we are more likely to experience a Feb of that vintage rather than a record mild Feb-Given repeated minor stratosphere warmings/-AO/Southerly tracking jet And the fact thet the last 3 winters have brought memorable cold spell's to our shores.
Thats it from me tonight- Models to continue to chop and change until this time next week, then they will settle on a pattern change to the mother of all Blocks to our North.
Dan :cool:0
This discussion has been closed.
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