Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

H2UMrsRobinson

My sciatica is at me again lately. Last time it was bad was November 2010. I'm only saying - make of it what you will. :-)

Deep Easterly

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Think everyone missed the memo that charts will flip flop before settling into a pattern , its obvious to see that there still all over the place ,

The model charts have always and always will flip flop in FI, be it in winter, spring, summer or autumn. We only notice how much they actually do so when they teasingly hint at a pattern we long to see.

Outdated news at this stage but this evening's ECMWF had only one slightly cooler than average day for Ireland in its 10 day projection, the rest were much pretty much above. Maybe the 00z runs will be more positive.

Redsunset

Just to wet the appetite, 17 of the 51 ECM ENS members have a quality Greenland/N Atlantic block beyond 264hrs.
Matt Hugo

TheMilkyPirate

00z looking better so far..

TheMilkyPirate

Probably talking to myself at this hour.. But the svalbard high has returned on the 06z. Difference from run to run is ridiculous at this stage and cements the fact that they haven't a clue what's going on. The GFS at least.

whiteandlight

Not quite yourself. Sick so just woke myself up coughing. Nice to hear ts back

WolfeIRE

0Z ECM now picking up on colder air pushing west from the continent by the 21st as the jetstream sinks further south. High pressure in the Atlantic appears to be successful in cutting off the endless series of low pressure systems pushing east toward Ireland and the UK.


Will be interesting to see if the GFS starts to pick up on this trend.

munsterlegend

WolfeIRE wrote: »

0Z ECM now picking up on colder air pushing west from the continent by the 21st as the jetstream sinks further south. High pressure in the Atlantic appears to be successful in cutting off the endless series of low pressure systems pushing east toward Ireland and the UK.


Will be interesting to see if the GFS starts to pick up on this trend.

Yeah all getting excited again over in NW.

WolfeIRE

By next Monday we are stuck between two much colder airmasses, one over the mid north Atlantic and the other over Continental Europe. Temperatures here will be around average.

It is interesting to note a link all the way from Siberia into eastern and central Europe.




Also of note is how far the cold air reaches in SE Europe. Crete and the other Greek islands will not be used to such cold uppers and resultant low surface temps.



Towards midweek high pressure does build toward Scandinavia with colder air continuing to push west.

While the jetstream will bring some unsettled weather to Ireland on Tue/Wed, high pressure in the Atlantic cuts off the supply come Thursday (19).

I think this is a great run from the GFS and builds on the lead set by the ECM at 0z in relation to blocking to our west and NE and cold weather becoming entrenched throughout much of continental Europe into NE Russia. While all key building blocks, consistency is required in future model runs.

Wild Bill

So, we're still go for the Great Wild Bill Blizzard of Jan 20th?

kstand

Sponge Bob - any update on what the crows are at this morning? I feel this should become an integral part of this thread as we try to predict what will happen with this potentail cold spell in 10 or so days time. It may well provide useful pointers for future forecasts.

Wild Bill

Indeed. The rooks are saying...

high in Biscay
'tis here to stay
will keep us warm
and the snow away

but they are always wrong - so this is an excellent sign.

WolfeIRE

LATEST GEFS ensembles continue downward trend





AO trending negative and becoming negative for the first time since November next week

NAO trending lower later next week signalling a less dominant jetstream setup

weatherfiend

I swore I was not going to look at this thread today!!! Glad I did but caaaaan't get excited jic

Iancar29

And if this chart becomes reality then ur previous title of the thread would of been just about correct Wolfey :pac:

blackius

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Also of note is how far the cold air reaches in SE Europe. Crete and the other Greek islands will not be used to such cold uppers and resultant low surface temps.



Towards midweek high pressure does build toward Scandinavia with colder air continuing to push west.

While the jetstream will bring some unsettled weather to Ireland on Tue/Wed, high pressure in the Atlantic cuts off the supply come Thursday (19).

I think this is a great run from the GFS and builds on the lead set by the ECM at 0z in relation to blocking to our west and NE and cold weather becoming entrenched throughout much of continental Europe into NE Russia. While all key building blocks, consistency is required in future model runs.

I'm of the opposite view.
I do accept, the if this does this and that does that we'll get the other analysis but it's all still hopecasting untill something more concrete starts trending closer.
Also through a lot of the decade of the noughties,the cold regularly spilled down to Greece bringing snow to Athens.Thats more common than you would think-heres an example
I don't see the cold getting much further west than Berlin or at best amsterdam to be honest.

The finger,wider than usual actually of green above of atlantic influence that is our average UK and Ireland winter is what we are looking at there.

I'm not buying the "of the models are confused" mullarkey so there must be cold coming... because it was being wheeled out 2 weeks ago,3 weeks ago etc etc and the weather is still mild.
It's showing no intention to go sub 3c by daytime within the next 2 or 3 weeks despite the cold hopecasting.

My own view now is that the cold snap,a decent one that is won't arrive before mid February if at all.
There seems to be too much work ahead for the atmosphere were it to be so inclined.

blackius

Ian,a -5 850 temp does not bring snow in Ireland even from the east,(it needs to be -7 or lower and preferably -8 or lower) below a 1000ft asl unless there is already a decent snow cover and a few weeks of surface cold bedded in.
-2c 850's was cold enough for snow almost to the beach last december but in current circumstances,it would hardly be enough for the top of kippure!

WolfeIRE

blackius wrote: »

My own view now is that the cold snap,a decent one that is won't arrive before mid February if at all.

Evidence of such a claim? Secondly, what is a 'decent' cold spell?

blackius

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Evidence of such a claim? Secondly, what is a 'decent' cold spell?

Experience of the decade of the 2000's wolf.
This looks no different.
A decent cold spell is february 2009,ie one where at least everyone in populated urban areas see's snow not just high ground or well inland.

Iancar29

blackius wrote: »

Ian,a -5 850 temp does not bring snow in Ireland even from the east,(it needs to be -7 or lower and preferably -8 or lower) below a 1000ft asl unless there is already a decent snow cover and a few weeks of surface cold bedded in.
-2c 850's was cold enough for snow almost to the beach last december but in current circumstances,it would hardly be enough for the top of kippure!

Eh i know that :rolleyes: ... think u might wanna have a looks at that chart again there pal

WolfeIRE

Update from Simon Keeling of weatheronline.co.uk.

A very good assessment of the next few weeks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOilimG3OZo

Elmer Blooker

I can remember how frustrated I used to get during those snowless days when Greece was more likely to a snowfall than us. Snow fell even at sea level as far south as Crete in February 2004.
http://www.uk.digiserve.com/mentor/crete/snow.htm

esposito

weatherfiend wrote: »

I swore I was not going to look at this thread today!!! Glad I did but caaaaan't get excited jic

I'm the exact same! I keep telling myself 'today will be the last day I look at this forum for a while' but it never happens. I just can't resist. My iphone makes it all too convienient. It's just too easy. Damn smart phones :rolleyes:

WolfeIRE

Iancar29 wrote: »

Best one of the winter so far, Ian.

blackius

Iancar29 wrote: »

Eh i know that :rolleyes: ... think u might wanna have a looks at that chart again there pal

Why does the alternative view attract a snipe like that?
It seems pervasive.

Thats an 850 chart you posted right? A mean of -5c does not a snowman make except in fluke circumstances or the highest ground in Ireland.

@Wolf I'm not disavowing assessments or hopecasts,I'm just saying,it's all a bit dangerous because it depends on chaos theory.

Historically,we see good charts creep closer to current time and then all of a sudden a shortwave appears from nowhere and mucks the beautifull chart up.
Worse the beautiful fades away totally sub 96hrs-jan 2007 is a perfect example.
And I can recall from memory that the charts were a lot sweeter looking in mid january 07 than they are now.

Do you see where I'm coming from?
I appreciate it's not a popular caution to be adding.

And it's in no way meant as a diss to your analysis,it's a counter point.
I might add,I could go away if you like,I am pretty annoyed with the attitude that unpopular counter points must be sniped at.

Iancar29

blackius wrote: »

Why does the alternative view attract a snipe like that?
It seems pervasive.

Thats an 850 chart you posted right? A mean of -5c does not a snowman make except in fluke circumstances or the highest ground in Ireland.

Ah no no, i do agree with you on ur statement above on 850 hp temps , though we did get the snow here on Dec 16th with -4 850s But ye , not widespread "EPIC SNOW" that alot of us want ha .

And the chart is a Minimum 2m temp chart for Dublin.

Villain

Umm not much to get excited about, charts are a bit all over the place but not much for Snow lovers to look to. Some of the signals are there though so who knows

drquirky

My models are predicting a double helix front wave which, when active will sweep across the westerly passing front line and double drop a hook wind on the country. Suffice to say I think all those who purchased winter tyres will be pleased in the coming weeks.

blackius

Iancar29 wrote: »

Ah no no, i do agree with you on ur statement above on 850 hp temps , though we did get the snow here on Dec 16th with -4 850s

Lol,I'd already explained how you can get snow,as in dec 16th with -4 850's.
The answer is cold pooling had already happened at surface level.
There was lying snow through a lot of Northern Britain and still in a lot of Eastern Ireland so the snow up at the 850 level could not melt as it fell through the air down to ground level as the air from there to ground was near enough to or below freezing for enough of the way.

Thats was unusual though.We'd need a repeat of those circumstances.
For example if the 850 temps at the end of november 10 were only -4c we would have had cold rain and not snow and possibly only light showers at that because it's the really cold sub -8 850 air that brought on the convection travelling over the irish sea.

Sometimes a lot of these things are quickly forgotten.

P.s it's exchanges like this I think why su campu left despite the crocodile tears by some :mad:

Iancar29

Yep i totally agree... low pressure dragging down cooler levels of air compared to an easterly slowly bring temps down before its cold enough for percip to fall as snow.

Ye november 10 was definetly below -8s when we had some of the epic snowfalls.

My apologises if i sounded on the offence , me no likely that sort of behaviour around here.



Ps... i still am gonna beat ur snowy videos from whistler though! .. :P