Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

Bishop_Donal

oterra wrote: »

I'd also like to point out that my Milkman ALWAYS delivers milk the morning before it snows without fail. Its incredible really!

Interesting observation. I've often heard it said you should keep an eye on the milkman!!

screamer

oterra wrote: »

I'd also like to point out that my Milkman ALWAYS delivers milk the morning before it snows without fail. Its incredible really!

OMG, loike really?

Wild Bill

Forget those models, charts and graphs.

I can now definitively state that on Friday 20th January and easterly blizzard will cover Ireland NE of a line from Arklow to Galway.

It will persist for 36 hours and dump 44cm of snow near the east coast and on high ground with falls in excess of 20cm even in western coastal areas north of Galway Bay.

It will be followed by several days of sub-zero temperatures and initially, streamer snow along the east coast.

There will follow several more days more of clear anticyclonic weather which will bring the first ever recorded -20C to Ireland on the morning of Friday 28th at Ballyhaise in County Cavan.

After the 30th there is a risk the cold spell will break down but a 50% chance that several days of heavy snow will be followed by a prolonged period of northerly to easterly winds - at least till mid-February.

novarock

Wild Bill wrote: »

Forget those models, charts and graphs.

I can now definitively state that on Friday 20th January and easterly blizzard will cover Ireland NE of a line from Arklow to Galway.

It will persist for 36 hours and dump 44cm of snow near the east coast and on high ground with falls in excess of 20cm even in western coastal areas north of Galway Bay.

It will be followed by several days of sub-zero temperatures and initially, streamer snow along the east coast.

There will follow several more days more of clear anticyclonic weather which will bring the first ever recorded -20C to Ireland on the morning of Friday 28th at Ballyhaise in County Cavan.

After the 30th there is a risk the cold spell will break down but a 50% chance that several days of heavy snow will be followed by a prolonged period of northerly to easterly winds - at least till mid-February.

Sud-zero - like zero but extra soapy.

eskimocat

Wild Bill wrote: »

Forget those models, charts and graphs.

I can now definitively state that on Friday 20th January and easterly blizzard will cover Ireland NE of a line from Arklow to Galway.

It will persist for 36 hours and dump 44cm of snow near the east coast and on high ground with falls in excess of 20cm even in western coastal areas north of Galway Bay.

It will be followed by several days of sub-zero temperatures and initially, streamer snow along the east coast.

There will follow several more days more of clear anticyclonic weather which will bring the first ever recorded -20C to Ireland on the morning of Friday 28th at Ballyhaise in County Cavan.

After the 30th there is a risk the cold spell will break down but a 50% chance that several days of heavy snow will be followed by a prolonged period of northerly to easterly winds - at least till mid-February.

Wild Bill, If this comes true I will be the first in line congratulate you... on the other hand if it doesn't I suggest you had better hire that snow machine mentioned on some thread... cause I ain't gonna be happy.... and when I aint happy.... well, lets just leave it at that.... for now....;)

Lucreto

Wild Bill wrote: »

Forget those models, charts and graphs.

I can now definitively state that on Friday 20th January and easterly blizzard will cover Ireland NE of a line from Arklow to Galway.

It will persist for 36 hours and dump 44cm of snow near the east coast and on high ground with falls in excess of 20cm even in western coastal areas north of Galway Bay.

It will be followed by several days of sub-zero temperatures and initially, streamer snow along the east coast.

There will follow several more days more of clear anticyclonic weather which will bring the first ever recorded -20C to Ireland on the morning of Friday 28th at Ballyhaise in County Cavan.

After the 30th there is a risk the cold spell will break down but a 50% chance that several days of heavy snow will be followed by a prolonged period of northerly to easterly winds - at least till mid-February.

I hope so. If is lasts a week or two I will be happy. I would love to see some of that Alaskan snow from the other thread and compare it to how we would handle it.

Bishop_Donal

Wild Bill wrote: »

Forget those models, charts and graphs.

I can now definitively state that on Friday 20th January and easterly blizzard will cover Ireland NE of a line from Arklow to Galway.

It will persist for 36 hours and dump 44cm of snow near the east coast and on high ground with falls in excess of 20cm even in western coastal areas north of Galway Bay.

It will be followed by several days of sub-zero temperatures and initially, streamer snow along the east coast.

There will follow several more days more of clear anticyclonic weather which will bring the first ever recorded -20C to Ireland on the morning of Friday 28th at Ballyhaise in County Cavan.

After the 30th there is a risk the cold spell will break down but a 50% chance that several days of heavy snow will be followed by a prolonged period of northerly to easterly winds - at least till mid-February.

I think Ballyhaise might hit -20.5C

davidsr20

Wild Bill wrote: »

Forget those models, charts and graphs.

I can now definitively state that on Friday 20th January and easterly blizzard will cover Ireland NE of a line from Arklow to Galway.

It will persist for 36 hours and dump 44cm of snow near the east coast and on high ground with falls in excess of 20cm even in western coastal areas north of Galway Bay.

It will be followed by several days of sub-zero temperatures and initially, streamer snow along the east coast.

There will follow several more days more of clear anticyclonic weather which will bring the first ever recorded -20C to Ireland on the morning of Friday 28th at Ballyhaise in County Cavan.

After the 30th there is a risk the cold spell will break down but a 50% chance that several days of heavy snow will be followed by a prolonged period of northerly to easterly winds - at least till mid-February.

I presume this is a piss take ;(

friendlylady

Wild Bill wrote: »

Forget those models, charts and graphs.

I can now definitively state that on Friday 20th January and easterly blizzard will cover Ireland NE of a line from Arklow to Galway.

It will persist for 36 hours and dump 44cm of snow near the east coast and on high ground with falls in excess of 20cm even in western coastal areas north of Galway Bay.

It will be followed by several days of sub-zero temperatures and initially, streamer snow along the east coast.

There will follow several more days more of clear anticyclonic weather which will bring the first ever recorded -20C to Ireland on the morning of Friday 28th at Ballyhaise in County Cavan.

After the 30th there is a risk the cold spell will break down but a 50% chance that several days of heavy snow will be followed by a prolonged period of northerly to easterly winds - at least till mid-February.

Now Bill tell me is it possible to reveal your sources for this weather forecast? Or would you have to kill me :eek:. I find this really interesting and you have been very precise, so we shall wait and see, no offense but I hope you're wrong (I hate the snow). But as I say I'd like to know where you got this info

John.Icy

That latest update by Brian Gaze is poor form IMO. I remember at the start of November he called for cold, similar starting time to last year, and pulled out about a week later when charts went dire. Ever since, he's been preaching about how correct he's been, as if he had never predicted cold. A good forecaster should always man up, and admit he got it wrong!

Wild Bill

John.Icy wrote: »

A good forecaster should always man up, and admit he got it wrong!

Agree 100%.

Expect some manning-up from this quarter :cool:

davidsr20

It's looking like all models are coming in poor lately,is this a bad sign?

Wild Bill

davidsr20 wrote: »

It's looking like all models are coming in poor lately,is this a bad sign?

Well...it's not a good sign.....

pistolpetes11

davidsr20 wrote: »

It's looking like all models are coming in poor lately,is this a bad sign?

Which models have being giving poor runs ?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

18z time

After Henry scoring a stellar run is on the cards !! :pac:

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Poor 12Z ECM out to 168 anyway.

And not particularly encouraging thereafter.

850 hPa temps at 216hrs:



The opposite of an easterly with murk and drizzle. This model really sticking to its guns over the last while.

12z En mean 850 temps at 240hrs:



showing a relative consistency as of late but not to worry, 'tis only one model afterall.

ninebeanrows

The first real model rollercoaster of the winter! There was the phantom storm in December mind you.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

The first real model rollercoaster of the winter! There was the phantom storm in December mind you.

That was fun but this is better !! :pac:

ninebeanrows

Deep Easterly wrote: »

And not particularly encouraging thereafter.

850 hPa temps at 192hrs:



The opposite of an easterly with murk and drizzle. This model really sticking to its guns over the last while.

12z En mean 850 temps at 240hrs:


showing a relative consistency as of late but not to worry, 'tis only one model afterall.

I don't think any model has been consistent! Not least the ECM!

Deep Easterly

Weathercheck wrote: »

I don't think any model has been consistent! Not least the ECM!

Ensembles have though, though that doesn't mean anything in itself..

maquiladora

Next up, 18Z GFS. Let's see what youve got. :cool:

Wild Bill

Look folks - when you get a blocking high in the Bay of Biscay you get prolonged meh.

Well known fact.

I shouldn't have to remind anyone here of the Great Biscay Meh from mid-December 1975 to late January 1976.

jimmy.d

maquiladora wrote: »

Next up, 18Z GFS. Let's see what youve got. :cool:

hopefully some good ones

cml387

Wild Bill wrote: »

Look folks - when you get a blocking high in the Bay of Biscay you get prolonged meh.

Well known fact.

I shouldn't have to remind anyone here of the Great Biscay Meh from mid-December 1975 to late January 1976.

Indeed.


Down our way they speak of nothing else.

Sponge Bob

Tis the Great Meh of De Bishcay when we mentions it in the Wesht.

Great summer the following year though, the very best of all summers and only 25c a pint for beer when the thirst hit as it did every day without fail.

K_1

FI 18z GFS is beautiful!




Edit: It gets better!

TheMilkyPirate

18z is interesting to say the least.

Like a rollercoaster all in one run!

FI is nothing short of amazing. But that's what it is FI.

NIALL D

^^
these are more like it , hopefully more of them type charts keep popping up , and show the start of a proper trend which actually comes true........:)

Harps

18z sticking with a meridional flow from next weekend and pumps a high right up to Svalbard keeping us with a south westerly. The vortex is all over the place which is promising, still stuck right over Greenland though unfortunately



Plenty of promise later in the run again but it looks like everything after the 14th is still up in the air (pardon the pun) considering the ECMWF runs today

Iancar29

ITS GONNA BE A BUMPY RIDE FOLKS!!!