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Cheltenham Ante Post Pick

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    #842
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Where do i start

    Huntley wrote: »
    I tend not to make a habit of backing horses that won't win so no I wouldn't. Must be great being able to pick winners all the time and if i could do that i wouldnt be wasting my time posting on boards

    As I said he came up against immature horses who simply had had enough at that stage. That won't be happening in the Arkle.

    I'm not sure are you in touch with top speed ratings but 132? Do you realise how brutally slow that is for a two mile chaser?

    I am reluctant to debate the hill theory because it is a total non-issue for me. I'm aware you have said as much but it smacks of desperation from those who have done their money on PC and AF. Course form and ability to get up the hill is a proven fact at the festival and ignoring it is a simple way to the poorhouse

    The Arkle is all about speed and always will be. These staying types only win when there is no genuine two miler in the field. 2 Miles around cheltenham needs just that bit more than the bare 2 miles form, its a tougher course and championship races are run at a crazy pace

    The hill is more to do with maturity then staying ability. Thats just silly have you stood at the bottom of the hill and looked up, its not as flat as it looks on telly and you can be sure plenty of horses simply cant be bothered as soon as they see it..

    This is the second occasion that someone has suggested it is silly/absurd but hasn't supplied any evidence to support it.

    Can you show me anything to suggest that PC has done enough over fences to be single figures? Feck sake , Peddlers cross is probably the best hurdler to go novice chasing in a long time, some of the price is related to potential more than bare form (and very good festival form). I wouldnt back him now at 3/1 but im on earlier at 9.0 on betfair and that looks a decent bet now.

    Sprinter Sacre is definatly the most likely winner after his performance last time and a worthy Favourite (He is possibly even value at the current odds), BUT running too free in the Arkle will be risky, and if by chance he doesnt fancy the hill, Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof will both get their heads down and fight. Im also somewhat impressed with Cue Card this year and he may be a bit underated.


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    #843
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Ladbrokes have a great Special on at the moment.

    11/4 Peddlers Cross to Place and Sizing Europe to win. Peddlers is a tough horse who will fight to the finish and in reality he is long odds on to place here, making the 11/4 look a great price, considering also that Sizing Europe doesnt have to be at his best to win this renewal, im having great difficulty picking out one that can beat him on form..


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    #844
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users Posts: 6,014 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Ladbrokes have a great Special on at the moment.

    11/4 Peddlers Cross to Place and Sizing Europe to win. Peddlers is a tough horse who will fight to the finish and in reality he is long odds on to place here, making the 11/4 look a great price, considering also that Sizing Europe doesnt have to be at his best to win this renewal, im having great difficulty picking out one that can beat him on form..

    Peddlers is 1.56 to place on Betfair before the market is even formed properly with a massive overround for Betfair. He'll be at least 1.7 to place on the day, which coupled with the 2.2 available on Sizing Europe gives 11/4, and you don't have to go tying yourself into a double, you can have as much as suits on each.

    That's backing on the day too. I'm fairly sure that special is ante post rules. Them specials always look like good value until you go on odds checker and calculate it. That one is fair but only if you really fancy it and would be backing something similar anyway


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    #845
    kiers47
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    This Arkle debate is really starting to drive me insane. Everyone knows where huntey stands with his opinion and he clearly aint budging on it. Can we leave it off and have a bit more of a constructive discussion.

    Have people changed opinions on the GC since Long Runs fairly average win a few weeks back? I personally think it blew it wide open as he looks a shadow of the horse from last year and this surely blows holes in kauto's form.


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    #846
    Huntley
    Registered Users Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Huntley


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Must be great being able to pick winners all the time and if i could do that i wouldnt be wasting my time posting on boards

    I said I don't tend to make a habit of picking losers, the same as everyone else that puts money on a horse. Did I mention winners? Maybe you should have started by reading my post correctly.
    aidankkk wrote: »
    Thats just silly have you stood at the bottom of the hill and looked up, its not as flat as it looks on telly and you can be sure plenty of horses simply cant be bothered as soon as they see it..

    Yes have you?

    I said it has more to do with maturity then staying ability. Do you think a horse needs to be a stayer to get up the hill?
    aidankkk wrote: »
    Course form and ability to get up the hill is a proven fact at the festival and ignoring it is a simple way to the poorhouse

    I didn't ignore it. I said it will be a non-issue for SS. That will be proven correct in two weeks. Come back and mention it to me then.
    aidankkk wrote: »
    Feck sake , Peddlers cross is probably the best hurdler to go novice chasing in a long time, some of the price is related to potential more than bare form (and very good festival form). I wouldnt back him now at 3/1 but im on earlier at 9.0 on betfair and that looks a decent bet now.

    Can you give me a reason to suggest that PC deserves to be single figures considering what he has done over fences? Your previous comment on it suggests no.


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    #847
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users Posts: 6,014 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    I don't think PC should be double figures but he does look like a lay to me at the prices. Was a very exciting horse but I think he's on a downward curve since last years CH


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    #848
    Huntley
    Registered Users Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Huntley


    kiers47 wrote: »
    Have people changed opinions on the GC since Long Runs fairly average win a few weeks back? I personally think it blew it wide open as he looks a shadow of the horse from last year and this surely blows holes in kauto's form.

    I thought it was a very good performance Kiers. LR was going around a track that wouldn't have played to his strengths and gave 10lbs to the field. He probably hit the front too soon and it looked like he was going to be caught when idling, but when Burton Port got to his hinds he quickened away again nicely.

    Someone mentioned that he doesn't look the same horse this year but that performance actually puts him better off than last years GC win. The extra 2½ will be a massive advantage on a track that will suit better, off level weights.

    Personally I think Long Run will outstay Kauto like last year. He doesn't have the toe to match Kauto so he starts to paddle through his fences when the screw is turned, but I'm not sure will the King have enough left to put the race to bed.

    The flip side is that he probably won't have something with him at the top of the hill hounding him along and Ruby might be able to dictate it a little better.

    I don't think the race is wide open but there is plenty of value in the w/o market, but you have to be sure that your selection will be aiming to pick up the pieces.


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    #849
    kiers47
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    Huntley wrote: »
    I thought it was a very good performance Kiers. LR was going around a track that wouldn't have played to his strengths and gave 10lbs to the field. He probably hit the front too soon and it looked like he was going to be caught when idling, but when Burton Port got to his hinds he quickened away again nicely.

    Someone mentioned that he doesn't look the same horse this year but that performance actually puts him better off than last years GC win. The extra 2½ will be a massive advantage on a track that will suit better, off level weights.

    Personally I think Long Run will outstay Kauto like last year. He doesn't have the toe to match Kauto so he starts to paddle through his fences when the screw is turned, but I'm not sure will the King have enough left to put the race to bed.

    The flip side is that he probably won't have something with him at the top of the hill hounding him along and Ruby might be able to dictate it a little better.

    I don't think the race is wide open but there is plenty of value in the w/o market, but you have to be sure that your selection will be aiming to pick up the pieces.

    Ya a couple of fair points. Im not sure there is any value in the top 2 though. I have a smallish bet e/w at big odds on Quel Esprit since well before christmas apart from that i think its a watching brief. You gonna back LR huntey or what do you think of his price?


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    #850
    ste2010
    Registered Users Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭ste2010


    only1stevo wrote: »
    Really fancy Rubi Light in the Ryanair, jumping has improved impressively this season, and I really think he might have won last year bar a very bad error 3 out. At 5s I think it could be an each way bet to nothing.
    Will put serious pressure on Somersbys jumping which might be the key on the day.
    As for Noble Prince, lacklustre this season, despite bigs gambles being laid down, which suggests to me he hasn't improved as much as the stable thinks.

    Absolutely agree! Rubi is a class act, I was on the cusp of a few hundred quid there had he won in leopardstown over the xmas...surprised what synchronised did to him to be honest..Have him @ 8's for the ryanair and I also like somersby as a bit of security. somersby was going very strongly in the champion chase last year until he milled one of the fences...I fancy both to be in the mix come the final 2 furlongs!


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    #851
    hucklebuck
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    kiers47 wrote: »
    This Arkle debate is really starting to drive me insane. Everyone knows where huntey stands with his opinion and he clearly aint budging on it. Can we leave it off and have a bit more of a constructive discussion.

    Have people changed opinions on the GC since Long Runs fairly average win a few weeks back? I personally think it blew it wide open as he looks a shadow of the horse from last year and this surely blows holes in kauto's form.

    Welcome back Huntey by the way.

    I said my piece on the Arkle and must say since the last race I have certainly being thinking long and hard about what to do, honestly the two options I mentioned have saved me a serious headache!!

    I don't feel Long Run is as good as last year, not much in it but slighly worse for me. Kauto has been a revelation but and I know its odd but I am not convinced he fully gets the trip, Long Run hit plenty of fences early on last year and finds loads for pressure. Of the two its Long Run for me.

    Grands Crus will be my bet if he runs, otherwise I will be all over Burton Port, he was very impressive. Mr Geraghty gave him a very easy time of it towards the end and even looked like a pull or two at the last couple of fences. On the run to the line Wahley Cohen was all out and that was never a proper Geraghty drive, sure he has 11 lbs to find but he has a better jockey and that may well tell on the day.


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    #852
    newuser89
    Closed Accounts Posts: 713 ✭✭✭newuser89


    Was just goin to post about burton port myself
    Geraghty was very easy on him he really should of beat long run
    It was his first run for well over a year he was just saving the horse for bigger days this season.
    I'd say there's 10 pounds improvement in him
    Should be placed


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    #853
    NaiveMelodies
    Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    hucklebuck wrote: »
    Mr Geraghty gave him a very easy time of it towards the end and even looked like a pull or two at the last couple of fences. On the run to the line Wahley Cohen was all out and that was never a proper Geraghty drive, sure he has 11 lbs to find but he has a better jockey and that may well tell on the day.

    This. My Friend had a sizeable bet on Sprinter Sacre and Long Run, watched the LR race with him, and we both had a laugh and agreed at the time that maybe it wasn't Barry's most forceful ride ever. After 18 months off though I do think he was probably under instruction not too overdo it....
    Burton Port simply has to come on for that run, but in all honesty I think they'll probably need a catalogue of errors from Long Run and SWC to beat him off level weights.
    If Grand Crus runs, he's my bet too, for the fact he will probably be on the bridle the longest, and then it's just a case of whether he'll have the same response up the hill as he had behind Big Buck's. If he's ridden to perfection he could feasibly win it.


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    #854
    hucklebuck
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    You can be sure it was probably a case of not being overly hard, the whole yard probably had the forecast.

    This was the quote from Andy Mc at the preview Nulty posted in the "Cheltenham preview nights"


    "AMc - thinks "Burton Port was tenderly handled by Barry" on the last day BUT Two horse Race - Long Run"


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    #855
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Huntley wrote: »
    I said I don't tend to make a habit of picking losers, the same as everyone else that puts money on a horse. Did I mention winners? Maybe you should have started by reading my post correctly.



    Yes have you? Yes

    I said it has more to do with maturity then staying ability. Do you think a horse needs to be a stayer to get up the hill? Not really but a horse needs to stay further than he does at another track, as the fast pace and uphill finish will find out non stayers.



    I didn't ignore it. I said it will be a non-issue for SS. That will be proven correct in two weeks. Come back and mention it to me then. It wont be an issue for ss if he is miles clear which in fairness he could be. But he has yet to fly up the hill like some of his oponents, and experiance has tought me that cheltenham and almost more importantly, festival form is a huge factor.



    Can you give me a reason to suggest that PC deserves to be single figures considering what he has done over fences? Your previous comment on it suggests no. I Did it is the potential he has, which in fairness is not as much as SS now but that good a hurdler obviously has a lot of potential over fences, particulary as he did jump well on his first 2 wins.
    ....


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    #856
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    I think the 40/1 EW about What a Friend is miles too big, as he looks a certantity to be in the first 5 and much lower that 10/1 to be in the first 3. I can see him staying on at the finish as he did last year, and he was sort of the forgotton horse in his last race, where he also finished well to close on Long Run. He looks more of a 25/1 shot to me..


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    #857
    sq_forever
    Registered Users Posts: 55 ✭✭sq_forever


    Sir Des Champs 111111. Really like this horse. Made for Davy Russell. This is my banker for the week. Still 6/1 with Boyles. Really impressed the way he got up to beat the much loved Hidden Cyclone at Leopardstown. Hidden Cyclone scoped badly after the race if i remember right, but just thought it was an impressive finish. Think this one will shorten after NRNB and start even shorter:eek: This one will make my week.


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    #858
    Rhinestone Cowboy
    Registered Users Posts: 55 ✭✭Rhinestone Cowboy


    What race for Sir Des Champs ? is the Jewson confirmed ?


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    #859
    Rhinestone Cowboy
    Registered Users Posts: 55 ✭✭Rhinestone Cowboy


    hucklebuck wrote: »
    You can be sure it was probably a case of not being overly hard, the whole yard probably had the forecast.

    This was the quote from Andy Mc at the preview Nulty posted in the "Cheltenham preview nights"


    "AMc - thinks "Burton Port was tenderly handled by Barry" on the last day BUT Two horse Race - Long Run"

    Nicky was talking about a fear of Burton Port bouncing at his media day yesterday. Wasnt BJG's most animated rideat Newbury but considering previous one left horse of track for 18 months was never going to be throwing sink at BP.

    NJH seemed smitten with Simonsig, Sprinter Sacre " aeroplane" and Binocular. Said something about Bino winning three champion hurdles.


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    #860
    mccarte2
    Registered Users Posts: 295 ✭✭mccarte2


    sq_forever wrote: »
    Sir Des Champs 111111. Really like this horse. Made for Davy Russell. This is my banker for the week. Still 6/1 with Boyles. Really impressed the way he got up to beat the much loved Hidden Cyclone at Leopardstown. Hidden Cyclone scoped badly after the race if i remember right, but just thought it was an impressive finish. Think this one will shorten after NRNB and start even shorter:eek: This one will make my week.

    I think he's completely underpriced. Can't have him for either race. He would have beaten by Knockfierna in Limerick only for Knockfierna to run out. Hidden Cyclone was 10 lengths short of his best that day so SDC should have been hammering him into the ground. The close presence of Fists of Fury to the 2 shows how poor the race was (in my opinion). The form of the horses he's beat doesn't stand up for me. I'm guessing he'll be aimed at the Jewson but I'd want double his current odds before even considering him. Champion Court is my pick at the moment.


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    #861
    kfallon
    Registered Users Posts: 25,775 ✭✭✭✭kfallon


    Rhinestone Cowboy wrote: »
    What race for Sir Des Champs ? is the Jewson confirmed ?

    Well Mouse Morris says he wants to run First Lieutenant in the RSA Chase so that would mean Sir Des Champs will go in the Jewson as they said it was a case of whichever one FL goes in SDC will go in the other!


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    #862
    sq_forever
    Registered Users Posts: 55 ✭✭sq_forever


    Rhinestone Cowboy wrote: »
    What race for Sir Des Champs ? is the Jewson confirmed ?

    No confirmation yet. Think it depends on Grand Cruz. If he goes to the RSA I doubt they would want to take him on. Hopefully Pipe sees the light and goes for the RSA. First Lieutenant will take him on.
    Think the Jewson is there for SDC.


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    #863
    mccarte2
    Registered Users Posts: 295 ✭✭mccarte2


    Handicaps weights and entries here

    http://www.theirishfield.ie/site/images/articlefiles/1330517924CHELT-WEIGHTS.pdf


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    #864
    hucklebuck
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Just backed Hunt Ball @ 8/1 in the Pulteney Land Investment Novices Handicap Chase.

    Will probably shoulder top weight but looks well ahead of the handicapper.


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    #865
    kfallon
    Registered Users Posts: 25,775 ✭✭✭✭kfallon


    hucklebuck wrote: »
    Just backed Hunt Ball @ 8/1 in the Pulteney Land Investment Novices Handicap Chase.

    Will probably shoulder top weight but looks well ahead of the handicapper.

    Going Wrong has 11-11 which I think is a bit too much weight for those competitive handicaps. I was immediately attracted to Grey Soldier at 10-3 for some reason!


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    #866
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    aidankkk wrote: »
    I think the 40/1 EW about What a Friend is miles too big, as he looks a certantity to be in the first 5 and much lower that 10/1 to be in the first 3. I can see him staying on at the finish as he did last year, and he was sort of the forgotton horse in his last race, where he also finished well to close on Long Run. He looks more of a 25/1 shot to me..

    Technically 10/2 with the win part of the bet....5/1. but your probably not wrong, he ought to go close to the places off last years effort


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    #867
    UnitedIrishman
    Registered Users Posts: 5,369 ✭✭✭UnitedIrishman


    In the Supreme Novices gone for Montbazon @ 13.5 and Trifolium @ 17.5 after much deliberation and scanning through form. Needed to pick and stick with one/two after wrecking my head looking at about 7-8 selections in the race over the last week! Hopefully both run now.

    Think I'll go for Al Ferof in the Arkle with PP aswell in the next couple of days with their moneyback special, and then a decent sized treble of SS, HF and Quevega @ 4/1 NRNB with Bet365.

    Only focusing on the first day at the minute to see how I'm fixed money wise for the rest of the week and given the large fields still entered for the handicaps, will leave it until closer to the day to do anymore betting.


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    #868
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    I'm not blown away by the price but Cinders and Ashes is my pick for the Supreme. The Irish form is hard to assess but Cinders and Ashes was going so well in the bumper last year and jumps hurdles very slickly. His form this year is nothing to shout about but he does it very easily and his seasonal return showed he has battling qualities. Most likely winner IMO


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    #869
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Nulty wrote: »
    I'm not blown away by the price but Cinders and Ashes is my pick for the Supreme. The Irish form is hard to assess but Cinders and Ashes was going so well in the bumper last year and jumps hurdles very slickly. His form this year is nothing to shout about but he does it very easily and his seasonal return showed he has battling qualities. Most likely winner IMO

    Hey Nulty. I'm on my phone so can't check form really but what was Cinders and Ashes behind last time out?


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    #870
    UnitedIrishman
    Registered Users Posts: 5,369 ✭✭✭UnitedIrishman


    Finished ahead of Double Ross and Oscar Nominee.


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    #871
    Huntley
    Registered Users Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Huntley


    McCain is contemplating the Jewson for Peddlers Cross.

    Comical.


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