Cheltenham Ante Post Pick

premierstone

ste2010 wrote: »

Really is that for sure. I was expecting the opposite :-( and had simonsig lined up for bet number 2 in the supreme

Betfair markets have been leaning this way for the last few days alright, I was on Simonsig for the Supreme aswell Its ironic that the Supreme is a race that has left me playing catch up for the last 3 years and at this stage Im thinking I might not get involved at all, it looks trickier than some of the handicaps tbh.

ste2010

premierstone wrote: »

ste2010 wrote: »

Really is that for sure. I was expecting the opposite :-( and had simonsig lined up for bet number 2 in the supreme

Betfair markets have been leaning this way for the last few days alright, I was on Simonsig for the Supreme aswell Its ironic that the Supreme is a race that has left me playing catch up for the last 3 years and at this stage Im thinking I might not get involved at all, it looks trickier than some of the handicaps tbh.

It's hard to know alright it's more open to speculation than some of te others. Is his odds heavily leaning to the Neptune on betfair? Still surprised...his run over the shorter distance was a cracker!

UrbanSea

I would avoid the Supreme like the plague. It's also the most open one in years

RichieLawlor

The Sup Nov needs a Sweet Wake in there

hucklebuck

UrbanSea wrote: »

I would avoid the Supreme like the plague. It's also the most open one in years

The last two werent punter friendly either. Midnight Game for me in that one.

mdwexford

RichieLawlor wrote: »

The Sup Nov needs a Sweet Wake in there

Definitely, punters need a banker to latch onto in the first.

Wont be the same without a Sup Nov hotpot who duly gets turned over.

El Ninotorres

I'm on Darlan, have him backed for a while at 18/1 but not so sure how he will react after that fall. I won't be touching anythnig else as it can and usally is a mine field.

premierstone

ste2010 wrote: »

Is his odds heavily leaning to the Neptune on betfair?

Yep, 13/1 for the supreme having been 6/1 after last win and now as short as 5/1 for the Neptune.

premierstone

El Ninotorres wrote: »

I'm on Darlan, have him backed for a while at 18/1 but not so sure how he will react after that fall. I won't be touching anythnig else as it can and usally is a mine field.

Thats the big question as to what mark the fall has left and of course could very well be a bridle horse but if he does pick up, considering how well he travelled in Newbury and in light of the fact that the handicapper has re-assessed Zarkandar's rating to 160 then Darlan has to be a major major player here.

Darlan was receiving 5lbs from Zarkandar, so if we think he would have finished upside Zarkandar, no real way of knowing but I actually think he would have won, and Zarkandar has been risen to 160, that would put Darlan around the 155 mark, Al Ferof won this wth a 154 rated performance last year.

LOL I think I have just talked myself into another Supreme Novice fiasco

UrbanSea

I'd love to see Darlan bypass this, maybe not run until the Greatwood. He raced off 148 the last day, but he was due to go down to 145 the following weekend cos the handicapper reassessed him cos he overrated that horse of Nicholls he beat. 3 pound lower mark and a break after that fall could equal $$$$

El Ninotorres

premierstone wrote: »

Thats the big question as to what mark the fall has left and of course could very well be a bridle horse but if he does pick up, considering how well he travelled in Newbury and in light of the fact that the handicapper has re-assessed Zarkandar's rating to 160 then Darlan has to be a major major player here.

Darlan was receiving 5lbs from Zarkandar, so if we think he would have finished upside Zarkandar, no real way of knowing but I actually think he would have won, and Zarkandar has been risen to 160, that would put Darlan around the 155 mark, Al Ferof won this wth a 154 rated performance last year.

LOL I think I have just talked myself into another Supreme Novice fiasco

Haha.. It's always the way. The truth be known we'll never know if he would have won that race but he was crusing and looked like he had every chance. I've noticed in the last day or two his odds have been drifting (he's available at 10's now) which may be an indicator as to wheter he'll run or not . If he does great if he doesn't I still won't be touching anything else in the race.

Goldcupfav

UrbanSea wrote: »

I would avoid the Supreme like the plague. It's also the most open one in years

Really liking Tetlami for this. Ive been topping up weekly since he was 25's then 20's and 16's still available now.

ste2010

premierstone wrote: »

ste2010 wrote: »

Is his odds heavily leaning to the Neptune on betfair?

Yep, 13/1 for the supreme having been 6/1 after last win and now as short as 5/1 for the Neptune.

Thats that so I guess! Back to the drawing board. Like darlan but the fall is turning me off . still waiting to see what sous les cieux is doing

ste2010

After thrawling through entries for the Neptune i've convinced myself to back monksland @ 14-1. He made easy work of lyreen legend in his last race beating him by 4 1/2 l's barely coming out of a canter, could have easily added 3-4ls more i reckon if he was shaken up. Boston bob on heavy ground fair enough giving 10lbs to lyreen legend made hard work of his win is heading the market. Ruby fancies boston bob as his best chance of the festival outside of the usuals however Noel Meade reckons monskland will be even more impressive on better ground. Nice break and aimed specifically at the festival I'm happy to take 14's instead of 5's for Boston bob. The potential addition to this race of simonsig with the likes of fingal bay and batonnier aswell will make for a cracking race!

ste2010

After thrawling through entries for the Neptune i've convinced myself to back monksland @ 14-1. He made easy work of lyreen legend in his last race beating him by 4 1/2 l's barely coming out of a canter, could have easily added 3-4ls more i reckon if he was shaken up. Boston bob on heavy ground fair enough giving 10lbs to lyreen legend made hard work of his win is heading the market. Ruby fancies boston bob as his best chance of the festival outside of the usuals however Noel Meade reckons monskland will be even more impressive on better ground. Nice break and aimed specifically at the festival I'm happy to take 14's instead of 5's for Boston bob. The potential addition to this race of simonsig with the likes of fingal bay and batonnier aswell will make for a cracking race!

Denners.ie

Ste2010; there is no 14's left. Fingal Bay is basically out.

ste2010

Denners.ie wrote: »

Ste2010; there is no 14's left. Fingal Bay is basically out.

Great stuff-I executed that bet like a credit default swap trader in the housing crash!

d-gal

Denners.ie wrote: »

Ste2010; there is no 14's left. Fingal Bay is basically out.

what gave you this impression that Fingal is out of the Neptune?

Denners.ie

I'm not sure exactly what that means Ste2010 ( )but unlucky on missing the price.

Fingal Bay has a near-hind hamstring injury, that is why he is basically out.

UrbanSea

I think ste means that he just backed it today at 14's before the price went Denners

Denners.ie

UrbanSea wrote: »

I think ste means that he just backed it today at 14's before the price went Denners

Cool, his post gave the impression he hadn't backed it yet and the price was gone for 2 hours at that stage so thought he missed it.

Races falling apart by the day.

UrbanSea

He probably did mean that haha.


As a spectator it's annoying, but not if you've backed a horse in the same race

ste2010

UrbanSea wrote: »

He probably did mean that haha.


As a spectator it's annoying, but not if you've backed a horse in the same race

I backed it at about 4bells

d-gal

Denners.ie wrote: »

I'm not sure exactly what that means Ste2010 ( )but unlucky on missing the price.

Fingal Bay has a near-hind hamstring injury, that is why he is basically out.

Just saw article, Hobbs is usually fairly straightforward so I say it is 50/50. Hope he runs, will be a cracking race

Slattsy

Noel Meade's festival record is atrocious, be wary backing any of his horses.

RichieLawlor

Slattsy wrote: »

Noel Meade's festival record is atrocious, be wary backing any of his horses.

Yes but getting beat by a Noel Meade horse at the festival is the best thing that can happen to a horse.

It's the opposite to a blight.

ste2010

Slattsy wrote: »

Noel Meade's festival record is atrocious, be wary backing any of his horses.

Thanks a bit too late now though :-(

Hulk Hands

What do people think about Synchronised as an outsider for the Gold Cup? Hardly the best Lexus field he beat over xmas but he did it very impressively nonetheless. He'll certainly stay the trip and good ground seemed to suit him fine the last day. A friend took some special offer 20/1 e/w the other day but has since changed his mind and offered to swap the slip for stake. I think i'll take it. Think he has a good chance of placing

UrbanSea

Yeah, that special was in Boyles. Every day they have a new one e.g 20 days to go they had 20/1 Synchronized, the odds are the same as the days left. It'd have to be a poor renewal for him to place, but it isn't entirely implausible.


Look at me using big words -''be''

mccarte2

2 I've had a nibble at this morning at what I think are value prices. Both Nick Williams horses.

He's confirmed Swincombe Flame will run in the mares hurdle and not the Coral Cup. Only a few have priced her up for the mares but I've had a nibble e/w at 14's as I think it's a free e/w bet behind Quevega. I'd expect her to go off at less than 10's once VLV is pulled out of the market.

The other is Alfie Spinner in the 4m Novice Chase. NW has confirmed Sam Waley Cohen will ride him. While SWC usually sends shudders up my spine he's not the worst to be on in an all amateurs race, particularly as he knows his way around Cheltenham well. Alfie Spinner was also a decent 3rd last Friday behind Invictus and Bobs Worth and is will be a confirmed runner in the race. Had a nibble at 12's e/w.