Cheltenham Ante Post Pick

Harry Angstrom

Anyone else think that 7/4 Oscar Whisky in the betting without Big Bucks market looks a decent enough bet? I think he's the only serious danger to the fav. I'll be amazed if he's not the one closest to Big Bucks jumping the final flight. 7/4 looks very tempting.

kfallon

Fists Of Fury is very doubtful to line up in the 4 miler now, there goes my score at 16's

hucklebuck

Huntley wrote: »

McCain is contemplating the Jewson for Peddlers Cross.

Comical.

You can't be serious. Any chance of a link.

If it's true I am going to punch Paddy Power in about an hour..:mad:

kfallon

hucklebuck wrote: »

You can't be serious. Any chance of a link.

If it's true I am going to punch Paddy Power in about an hour..:mad:

I think he's just leaving him in there as a precaution tbh

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/12/02/29/RACING_Arkle.html&BID=465

premierstone

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Anyone else think that 7/4 Oscar Whisky in the betting without Big Bucks market looks a decent enough bet? I think he's the only serious danger to the fav. I'll be amazed if he's not the one closest to Big Bucks jumping the final flight. 7/4 looks very tempting.

Its about right I would say, its by no means a good thing, the problem is Oscar will we persume be ridden to win the race and BB's will see him as the main danger its quite likely that something that just runs their own race will sail past Oscar Whisky once BB has broke him!

judgethemoment

kfallon wrote: »

I think he's just leaving him in there as a precaution tbh

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/12/02/29/RACING_Arkle.html&BID=465

sounds like he is admitting defeat already

Rhinestone Cowboy

If you are backing Peddlers now Bet365 NRNB sounds like the safest option.

Colonel Sanders

Peddlers was still 4.7 to lay around 6pm. Bigger now. SS hasn't really shortened but Al Ferof has

Huntley

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Peddlers was still 4.7 to lay around 6pm. Bigger now. SS hasn't really shortened but Al Ferof has

I think he will still go for the Arkle but the fact connections are even contemplating the Jewson says it all really.

mdwexford

No hope PC goes for the Jewson, some sort of strange mind games from McCain imo.

OW looks a stonking bet at 7/4 woBB, the rest of the field suck a fat one. OW is very very good, at all distances.

Slattsy

No chance PC goes for the Jewson.

MoscowFlyer

Just did my first bet for the Festival.

Long Run 9/4 - This track is perfect for him, uphill finish will hurt Kauto and we have all witnessed how good Long Run stays. Bet of the festival IMO

Doubling him with Sivola De Sivola 6/1 in the Pertemps, obv a wide open race but I really like his chances here so getting in now before his price drops!

The double is just over 20/1

mccarte2

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Just did my first bet for the Festival.

Long Run 9/4 - This track is perfect for him, uphill finish will hurt Kauto and we have all witnessed how good Long Run stays. Bet of the festival IMO

Doubling him with Sivola De Sivola 6/1 in the Pertemps, obv a wide open race but I really like his chances here so getting in now before his price drops!

The double is just over 20/1

Tom George mentioned something today about being worried if he'll get into the race or not. Has another race as a backup option.

mccarte2

A few I've backed over last few days

Alfie Spinner in the 4m chase. Nick Williams has confirmed that SWC will ride him. Impressive run behind Invictus lto. On at 12 or 14s.
Swincombe Flame in mares hurdle. Nick Williams again confirmed that she'll go for this ahead of Coral Cup. Good winner of Lanzarote Hurdle. Unaccompanied being entered has thrown the spanner in the mix but she prob won't run. I see it as a free each way bet at 12s.
Merchant Royal in the Foxhunters. Horse has apparently been primed for this all season. Good ground won't be an issue. Been kept lightly raced all year. Robbie Mac aboard is a big positive given some of the jokers who'll be riding. Salsify looks good but couldn't touch at current price.
Alan King top trainer at 33/1. Took a look through his entries and couldn't believe the price. 33s dried up now and generally 20s or 25s. Horses bang in form and would look to lay some off if he has a winner on day 1 which is a possibility through Montbazon or Hold On Julio. Willie could have 3 winners after day 1 but the rest of the week will be difficult for him.

Slattsy

Struggling to get my head around the Supreme lads. I've ruled out Steps to Freedom as I dont think his form is good enough. Simonsig wont run. Darlan has to get over a bad fall which is hardly an ideal prep. Cinders and Ashes in my opinion wants further and won't have the speed. Galileos Choice is hard to gauge but I dont think it should should be as short, I'm guessing the price is down to Weld training it. Midnight Game seems to have a huge rep and Russell prefers him over Trifolium. Montbazon seems to be improving with every race so has a great chance but something just tells me a shock is on the cards!! Ah i dunno, hard race to call. Could be safest to go with something each way like Cash and Go... 20/1.

Thoughts on it lads?

Huntley

Dylan Ross's price is far too big in the Supreme. He has a massive e/w chance, will travel like a dream and love the conditions but has a touch of Harchi syndrome.

UnitedIrishman

Slattsy wrote: »

Struggling to get my head around the Supreme lads. I've ruled out Steps to Freedom as I dont think his form is good enough. Simonsig wont run. Darlan has to get over a bad fall which is hardly an ideal prep. Cinders and Ashes in my opinion wants further and won't have the speed. Galileos Choice is hard to gauge but I dont think it should should be as short, I'm guessing the price is down to Weld training it. Midnight Game seems to have a huge rep and Russell prefers him over Trifolium. Montbazon seems to be improving with every race so has a great chance but something just tells me a shock is on the cards!! Ah i dunno, hard race to call. Could be safest to go with something each way like Cash and Go... 20/1.

Thoughts on it lads?

Very hard race to decipher and I'm going with relatively small stakes on it, with Montbazon and Trifolium backed in it. Nothing standing out like Cue Card did last year (and look how that turned out) so it's hard enough to gauge. Darlan travelled like the winner in the Betfair hurdle and had almost convinced myself to go with it (McCoy riding it another bonus given, well it's McCoy, and he's been his last four years in the race reads 1202). Looks like Simonsig is going over further according to what is being said by Henderson and Geraghty.

Don't think there's an awful lot to seperate these this year but went with Montbazon because he was impressive enough at Newbury beating Vulcanite and didn't seem to take to the soft against Colour Squadron. As for Trifolium, liked his run beating Simenon last time out and the one before that behind So Young despite the winner getting up handy enough. He'll like a bit of better ground according to Byrnes so I'm going on that.

As I said, it's a tough race to go on and I'll be keeping stakes low enough because there's a lot at the same level - as the markets show.

Goldcupfav

Slattsy wrote: »

Struggling to get my head around the Supreme lads. I've ruled out Steps to Freedom as I dont think his form is good enough. Simonsig wont run. Darlan has to get over a bad fall which is hardly an ideal prep. Cinders and Ashes in my opinion wants further and won't have the speed. Galileos Choice is hard to gauge but I dont think it should should be as short, I'm guessing the price is down to Weld training it. Midnight Game seems to have a huge rep and Russell prefers him over Trifolium. Montbazon seems to be improving with every race so has a great chance but something just tells me a shock is on the cards!! Ah i dunno, hard race to call. Could be safest to go with something each way like Cash and Go... 20/1.

Thoughts on it lads?

Id be careful backing Cash and Go couple of rumour's going round the BF forum that he may not run.

RACE TRENDS: (copied from BF forum)

■13 of the last 15 winners won last time out
■8 of the last 20 winners had one or two previous starts over hurdles
■11 of the last 12 winners ran in the previous 45 days
■33 of the last 37 winners were aged five or six
■Only one four-year-old winner since 1973
■The Irish have won 7 of the last 11 renewals
■Only 3 favourites won in the last 20 renewals
■3 of the last 16 horses to start at 3/1 or shorter have won
■6 of the last 14 winners started in the front two of the betting

Very tough race to call ive a nice bit on Tetlami at 25, 20, and 16. Barry will ride him if Simonsig doesnt run. Darlan did travel well before his fall in the Betfair but at 7/1 wouldnt be for me. Plus dont really like backing horses that have taking a tumble the time before. Will most likely have abit ew on Vulcanite at 20's. Trainer has said that he wasnt 100% at Newbury the last day.

Harry Angstrom

Slattsy wrote: »

Struggling to get my head around the Supreme lads. I've ruled out Steps to Freedom as I dont think his form is good enough. Simonsig wont run. Darlan has to get over a bad fall which is hardly an ideal prep. Cinders and Ashes in my opinion wants further and won't have the speed. Galileos Choice is hard to gauge but I dont think it should should be as short, I'm guessing the price is down to Weld training it. Midnight Game seems to have a huge rep and Russell prefers him over Trifolium. Montbazon seems to be improving with every race so has a great chance but something just tells me a shock is on the cards!! Ah i dunno, hard race to call. Could be safest to go with something each way like Cash and Go... 20/1.

Thoughts on it lads?

Galileo's Choice will do for me. Group 3 winner over 10 furlongs on the Flat. Nice run behind Sous Les Cieux on heavy ground before Christmas. Beat nothing last time but won easily and that should put him spot on for the Festival. Should like the decent ground at Cheltenham. 8/1 now but will probably be a bit shorter on the day if the Irish punters get stuck into him.

Hulk Hands

Boylesports refunding all losing win bets in their shops if an Irish horse wins the supreme . Rather good offer that seems to have been forgotten about. Id say an Irish winner is about a 6/4 shot, so not too different from pp's offer

Slattsy

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Boylesports refunding all losing win bets in their shops if an Irish horse wins the supreme . Rather good offer that seems to have been forgotten about. Id say an Irish winner is about a 6/4 shot, so not too different from pp's offer

Ai tis not bad to be sure to be sure.
I don't fancy an Irish winner myself but if whoever I back is last coming down the hill I'll sure be shouting for an Irish winner

UrbanSea

Supreme has no bet written all over it for me, but great value to be had if you're strong on something.


I've backed Binocular for the CH and backed Champion Court at 10/1 for the Jewson yesterday. Can see Solix as the main danger

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Supreme has no bet written all over it for me, but great value to be had if you're strong on something.


I've backed Binocular for the CH and backed Champion Court at 10/1 for the Jewson yesterday. Can see Solix as the main danger

Agreed on Champion Court. If he gets his jumping together he will go close.

UrbanSea

I wouldn't have thought he was a particularly poor jumper but maybe I need to look again. Has course form which is a big plus

longshotvalue

UrbanSea wrote: »

Supreme has no bet written all over it for me, but great value to be had if you're strong on something.


I've backed Binocular for the CH and backed Champion Court at 10/1 for the Jewson yesterday. Can see Solix as the main danger

Your right about the supreme, i have a bet at 17.0 on Betfair about Welds one, but even tough its shorter now id say that price is about right..

Im on Solix for the Jewson, and it could be a close race as they are top 2 in my opinion..

UrbanSea

That's a good price you have on him aidan, are you going to lay at a lower price or keep the bet?

Solix has very little to find with Champion Court, was thinking of throwing a small bet on him too

longshotvalue

UrbanSea wrote: »

That's a good price you have on him aidan, are you going to lay at a lower price or keep the bet?

Solix has very little to find with Champion Court, was thinking of throwing a small bet on him too

Its a decent price, but i think he is well underpriced now. I never lay off bets, id prefer to let it ride as i think its better longterm. (i have to say i never even tough about laying until last week, i had a 240/1 shot backed on betfair for a staying chase and it went down to 5 in running, but i didnt have enough in my account to lay it off for a decent amount anyway:o)

UrbanSea

Would have been a nice winner

longshotvalue

UrbanSea wrote: »

Would have been a nice winner

Just missed out on the place as well, which was also massive..

El Ninotorres

What do people make of ScottIrish chances?