Cheltenham Ante Post Pick

ste2010

UrbanSea wrote: »

Al Ferof is probably the best each way bet in the race. His form is the best in the race, even if he hasn't been visually as impressive as Sprinter Sacre.


People seem to be basing their opinion on Peddlers' Cross purely on his hurdles form, because he has shown nothing over fences that'd warrant his position as being second favourite.

I would of thought Minnella class was handy enough..but it's hard to know after his flop at the weekend and his fall when cue card won at in the goals galore bla bla chase in ref to peddlers cross....ACTUALLY you can disregard that comment about Minnella class...that is based on his hurdle form :-) and was a stupid point...

I agree what your saying about alot of people going on his hUrdles form urban but aside from the race against SS can you fault peddlers chasing performance in the other races in any way other than what's put in from of him ?

UrbanSea

newuser89 wrote: »

Peddlers jumps well
He will be fine
He hasn't raced against gd fields over fences yet but he has more potential than most the arkle field judged on his hurdle form.
We haven't seen the best of him yet

Backing him based on the hope that he improves is fine, but I still don't think it warrants a position as second favourite.

newuser89

Its based on what he is possibly capable of as he hasn't had his form exposed as a chaser yet.two wins against nothing and then injured in his last race
Line through his last run.

Huntley

UrbanSea wrote: »

Al Ferof is probably the best each way bet in the race. His form is the best in the race, even if he hasn't been visually as impressive as Sprinter Sacre.

All we have learned about Al Ferof this season is that he needs more than 2 miles.

newuser89 wrote: »

Peddlers jumps well

How do you make that out?

newuser89 wrote: »

Its based on what he is possibly capable of as he hasn't had his form exposed as a chaser yet.two wins against nothing and then injured in his last race
Line through his last run.

I wouldn't be so quick to say he was injured. Two hack arounds and a mauling at Christmas and somehow he is circa 3/1?

The bookies might aswell be wearing balaclavas offering that price.

NaiveMelodies

Huntley wrote: »

I wouldn't be so quick to say he was injured. Two hack arounds and a mauling at Christmas and somehow he is circa 3/1?

The bookies might aswell be wearing balaclavas offering that price.

I agree to an extent that 3/1 about Peddlers is crazy. But any insinuation that there was not something wrong with him when he lost to SS is a little naive.

Baby Mix, for example, 27 lengths behind Grumeti in Jan, "wasn't right" according to Trainer. Win's on saturday, as does Grumeti, and now there is very little difference in price between the two at the head of the triumph market.

newuser89

He jumped well in his 2 previous chases and he pulled muscles in his back at kempton that day

UrbanSea

Huntley wrote: »

All we have learned about Al Ferof this season is that he needs more than 2 miles.



How do you make that out?



I wouldn't be so quick to say he was injured. Two hack arounds and a mauling at Christmas and somehow he is circa 3/1?

The bookies might aswell be wearing balaclavas offering that price.

Something a lot of Arkle winners have in common. He'll be staying on all day, wouldn't necessarily write him off based on that.

premierstone

newuser89 wrote: »

He jumped well in his 2 previous chases and he pulled muscles in his back at kempton that day

He's jumping is nowhere near as slick or as stylish as Sprinter Sacre, Cheltenham will suit Peddlars but Sprinter is different gravy - Sprinter, Hurricane and Quevega it will be a bloodbath on Day one

Huntley

only1stevo wrote: »

But any insinuation that there was not something wrong with him when he lost to SS is a little naive.

How so? Have we any solid evidence to suggest he was physically unwell apart from being outpaced and jumped into the ground?

I think PC could be closer at Cheltenham because of the track and he was eased down, but this theory that he was definitely under par is just that, a theory.

The naive ones are the people willing to back Peddlers Cross, a horse who has done nothing significant over fences and should be double figures.

only1stevo wrote: »

Baby Mix, for example, 27 lengths behind Grumeti in Jan, "wasn't right" according to Trainer. Win's on saturday, as does Grumeti, and now there is very little difference in price between the two at the head of the triumph market.

This bears little relevance.

Gordon Elliot said Mount Benbulben definitely "wasn't right" when he got beat by Boston Bob, but a line through Jetson only put him slightly below his previous Grade 2 win.

Trainers are biased and not everything they say is correct.

NaiveMelodies

Huntley wrote: »

How so? Have we any solid evidence to suggest he was physically unwell apart from being outpaced and jumped into the ground?

I think PC could be closer at Cheltenham because of the track and he was eased down, but this theory that he was definitely under par is just that, a theory.

The naive ones are the people willing to back Peddlers Cross, a horse who has done nothing significant over fences and should be double figures.



This bears little relevance.

Gordon Elliot said Mount Benbulben definitely "wasn't right" when he got beat by Boston Bob, but a line through Jetson only put him slightly below his previous Grade 2 win.

Trainers are biased and not everything they say is correct.

Moreso trying to make the point that I'm not as shocked at the price as you seem to be, while it is pretty measly. Double figures though is just silly however. What price would you have Peddlers, say If he hadn't run vs. SS and maybe had an easier prep, winning handily against nothing of note?

Baby Mix anecdote, again just acknowledging how one shocking run from a horse can often be ignored as an "off day" by the bookies and punters.

Huntley

UrbanSea wrote: »

Something a lot of Arkle winners have in common. He'll be staying on all day, wouldn't necessarily write him off based on that.

Something a lot of Arkle winners have in common when there hasn't been a genuine top 2 miler in the race.

A Ferof will stay all day but he won't be coming up against immature horses who will be stopping this time around.

Even his current top speed of 132 is shocking, there is faster 3 milers. I would need to go back over figures but I would be pretty sure nobody has ever won an Arkle off that figure. To put it simply, Al Ferof isn't quick enough to win.

FWIW the term "stay" and "Arkle" shouldn't even be mentioned together.

Huntley

only1stevo wrote: »

Double figures though is just silly however.

He hasn't done anything over fences to justify a single figure price. Therefore, he should be double figures.

Pretty straightforward but most logical analysis is.

NaiveMelodies

Huntley wrote: »

He hasn't done anything over fences to justify a single figure price. Therefore, he should be double figures.

Pretty straightforward but most logical analysis is.

If we was double figures, would you back him? I'd be all over him, more than willing to take the risk that the he's been schooled over fences since his last run with improvements being made, and of the belief that his ability to fly up that hill would see him place at the very least.

UrbanSea

Huntley wrote: »

Something a lot of Arkle winners have in common when there hasn't been a genuine top 2 miler in the race.

A Ferof will stay all day but he won't be coming up against immature horses who will be stopping this time around.

Even his current top speed of 132 is shocking, there is faster 3 milers. I would need to go back over figures but I would be pretty sure nobody has ever won an Arkle off that figure. To put it simply, Al Ferof isn't quick enough to win.

FWIW the term "stay" and "Arkle" shouldn't even be mentioned together.

He was quick enough to win the Supreme, it wouldn't be an impossible scenario that Sprinter Sacre fails to get up the hill again, though I personally wouldn't be too worried about that if I had backed him.

And I disagree regarding the last part. The Arkle may be ran over two miles, but there's no denying a horse needs to stay up the hill. The quickest horse in training may fail to win the Arkle due to its inability to get up the hill.

premierstone

Huntley wrote: »

The naive ones are the people willing to back Peddlers Cross, a horse who has done nothing significant over fences and should be double figures.

Double figures is just absurd tbh, can we assume so considering he can be layed at just under 4/1 on Betfair you have taken a serious stand against on the machine??

You reckon he is a >10/1 shot and he can be layed at 4/1, you must be having wet dreams about this

Huntley

only1stevo wrote: »

If we was double figures, would you back him? I'd be all over him, more than willing to take the risk that the he's been schooled over fences since his last run with improvements being made, and of the belief that his ability to fly up that hill would see him place at the very least.

I tend not to make a habit of backing horses that won't win so no I wouldn't.

UrbanSea wrote: »

He was quick enough to win the Supreme, it wouldn't be an impossible scenario that Sprinter Sacre fails to get up the hill again, though I personally wouldn't be too worried about that if I had backed him.

As I said he came up against immature horses who simply had had enough at that stage. That won't be happening in the Arkle.

I'm not sure are you in touch with top speed ratings but 132? Do you realise how brutally slow that is for a two mile chaser?

I am reluctant to debate the hill theory because it is a total non-issue for me. I'm aware you have said as much but it smacks of desperation from those who have done their money on PC and AF.

UrbanSea wrote: »

And I disagree regarding the last part. The Arkle may be ran over two miles, but there's no denying a horse needs to stay up the hill. The quickest horse in training may fail to win the Arkle due to its inability to get up the hill.

The Arkle is all about speed and always will be. These staying types only win when there is no genuine two miler in the field.

The hill is more to do with maturity then staying ability.

premierstone wrote: »

Double figures is just absurd tbh

This is the second occasion that someone has suggested it is silly/absurd but hasn't supplied any evidence to support it.

Can you show me anything to suggest that PC has done enough over fences to be single figures?

mccarte2

Huntley wrote: »

Can you show me anything to suggest that PC has done enough over fences to be single figures?

Most of the discussion on here has already said his price is short due to his form over hurdles, getting HF off the bridle in the CH last year, the slickness of his jumping in first 2 runs (ignore who he beat) and willingness to put a line through his last run due to injury & inability to go right handed.

The last 2 are excuses more than anything else. Everytime he's been pushed out in price he's been backed by people that I would assume know more than you or I. Fwiw, I've an AP docket with him at 7's which I'm happy with. I would struggle to back him now at 3/1. However, I couldn't touch any even money fav in the Arkle either.

It must be remembered that SS is still a novice too and while he's been very impressive, we've no idea how he'll respond to pressure. Leave the hill argument aside and look through his previous runs. If he's allowed to cruise to the front and gallop them into the ground then he'll win at a canter. But I don't see this field letting that happen. He's yet to prove he can find anything under pressure (apart from doing his best to throw the race away in his first bumper). Maybe the wind op will have helped that but it's still an unknown for me.

newuser89

I got another mark Howard update
And in it he confirmed Peddlers pulled his back muscles that day.
Say the trainer is making things up all ya want.
That excuse explains why he didn't jump with any real fluency that day.
Peddlers was 2nd in champ hurdle he didnt come from out of the pack staying on.
He is a very gd 2 miler but his best will be over further
But for now he is quick enough to be a 2 miler

AngryBollix

Was considering a bet on montbazon in the Supreme Novices at about 12\1

UrbanSea

@huntey: I don't know how to just quote the bit directed at me.

I hadn't realised his speed rating was so low, and surprised that he could win a grade 1 with that. No doubt that just shows why his competitors will be going for the Jewson.

I'm not too pushed on a debate on getting up the hill either. I only worry about that when backing a horse in the Supreme mostly, but I wouldn't deny that a horse does need to stay to get it, but we will agree to disagree.

premierstone

Huntley wrote: »

The naive ones are the people willing to back Peddlers Cross, a horse who has done nothing significant over fences and should be double figures.

Huntley wrote: »

Even his current top speed of 132 is shocking, there is faster 3 milers. I would need to go back over figures but I would be pretty sure nobody has ever won an Arkle off that figure. To put it simply, Al Ferof isn't quick enough to win.

Huntley wrote: »

This is the second occasion that someone has suggested it is silly/absurd but hasn't supplied any evidence to support it.

Can you show me anything to suggest that PC has done enough over fences to be single figures?

Ok Huntley can you price up the race for me, I'd love to see your over round considering you have so readily dismissed the two main rivals to the market leader, oh and I did try to tell you a few weeks ago that the money would come for Peddlars

pugw

Will thousand stars run in the champion or the World hurdle??

Nulty

premierstone wrote: »

Ok Huntley can you price up the race for me, I'd love to see your over round considering you have so readily dismissed the two main rivals to the market leader, oh and I did try to tell you a few weeks ago that the money would come for Peddlars

The only way he can make up the over round to something that wouldn't ruin him if he was a bookmaker is to have SS at 2/7 by the sounds of things. At this stage I would rather back SS at 5/4 than Peddlers at 3/1, thats just me though and I won't be backing wither of them. I have my own no-hoper in Blackstairmountain.

Huntley

premierstone wrote: »

Double figures is just absurd tbh

Huntley wrote: »

This is the second occasion that someone has suggested it is silly/absurd but hasn't supplied any evidence to support it.

Can you show me anything to suggest that PC has done enough over fences to be single figures?

premierstone wrote: »

Ok Huntley can you price up the race for me, I'd love to see your over round considering you have so readily dismissed the two main rivals to the market leader, oh and I did try to tell you a few weeks ago that the money would come for Peddlars

Considering you would love to see me price it up I will have to decline that request. I don't do favours for people I don't like.

You suggested that the money will come and it was possible that PC could go off favourite. That was an idiotic theory a few weeks ago and it still is now. (This is where I add one of them stupid wink faces that further degrade your ridiculous posts)

I am now refusing to debate with you further until you provide a reasoned response to your original post, which is what I had the courtesy of doing when I suggested PC should be double figures.

mccarte2 wrote: »

It must be remembered that SS is still a novice too and while he's been very impressive, we've no idea how he'll respond to pressure. Leave the hill argument aside and look through his previous runs. If he's allowed to cruise to the front and gallop them into the ground then he'll win at a canter. But I don't see this field letting that happen. He's yet to prove he can find anything under pressure (apart from doing his best to throw the race away in his first bumper). Maybe the wind op will have helped that but it's still an unknown for me.

The reason we haven't seen him under pressure yet is because nothing is good enough to get near him, that is a positive in my book when you consider the ease with which he swept a 160 rated animal aside.

I understand your reservations but I think SS has far less to answer than the rest of this field.

Goldcupfav

pugw wrote: »

Will thousand stars run in the champion or the World hurdle??

According to Mullins stable tour on the rp website it will be decided very late which race he goes for.

hucklebuck

Lads its quite simple:

100 win - Peddlers @ 11/4 - Powers
200 win - Sprinter Sacre @ 11/10 - Boyles

Its a two horse race for me and a no brainer betting market.

pugw

Goldcupfav wrote: »

According to Mullins stable tour on the rp website it will be decided very late which race he goes for.

Thanks! Might be worth an e/w @ 25's if run in the champion hurdle

d-gal

Did a couple of e/w lucky 15s this morning..NRNB

Sous les cieux (Neptune)
Colour Squadron (Supreme)
Kentford Grey Lady (Mares hurdle)
Clonbanan lad (Champion Bumper)

Thousand Stars (World Hurdle)
First Lieutenant (RSA)
Sadler's Risk (Triumph)
Noble Prince (Ryanair)

NaiveMelodies

Really fancy Rubi Light in the Ryanair, jumping has improved impressively this season, and I really think he might have won last year bar a very bad error 3 out. At 5s I think it could be an each way bet to nothing.
Will put serious pressure on Somersbys jumping which might be the key on the day.
As for Noble Prince, lacklustre this season, despite bigs gambles being laid down, which suggests to me he hasn't improved as much as the stable thinks.

newuser89

What's boylesports special offer on the arkle