LongShotValue "Flat" 100 Bets to Broke AGAIN

longshotvalue

12 Star Rover, Chester 3:20, Reasonably well drawn, and around here, if he can get out in front, which he is liable to do, he may be difficult to knock out of the places on the short run in..

1 Point EW 33/1 Paddy Power

longshotvalue

13 Courageous York 2:00.. Visor tried, second run this year was good, and has dropped to a very good mark. Might be capable of performing here Betfair 30win 8.6 Place

1 point win 1 point Place

longshotvalue

14 Billy Dane York 2:30, well drawn for a front runner, is down to a good mark, and showed some decent toughness in the past.. Drop in weights and draw bound to help him stay on . Betfair 25 win 6.4

1 pt win 1 pt place

longshotvalue

15 Layline 4:30 Lingfield, only 2 unexposed 3yos in the field, and very interesting that this one ran first time out in big handicap altough never really got i a blow. With the 3yo allowence and a run behind him, looks value at 11/1.. 13.5 on Betfair

2 Points Win.

POINTBREAK

That does look to be between the two 3 years olds when you look at the weights and Official ratings . They are getting 9lb and 12lb from horses that are rated much the same as they are. The filly is 6/4 and Layline is around 10/1 -12/1 so its an easy decision as to which one to back.
Really interesting targeting the Britannia with Layline first time out. They must think very highly of it, or maybe the owner just wanted another runner at the meeting. She also owns Swingkeel.

longshotvalue

Have to admit i ended up getting 12/1 with Ladbrokes, and went for EW then as 12/1 is my min price for e/w betting.. Dont usually look at poor midweek racing but this looks a half decent race.. Id say odds of more like 7/1 are more realistic for this ones chance..

longshotvalue

Ended up 6/1, traded at 1.07 :eek: in running but finished 2nd:(.

longshotvalue

16. Looking Lovely 8:55 Leop, 20/1 EW. Of the 3 obrien fillies, in this , there may not be that much between them, this one had a poor run last time, but her maiden looked the best performance of the 3, good value to come back to form.

1 Point EW..

colly54

aidankkk wrote: »

16. Looking Lovely 8:55 Leop, 20/1 EW. Of the 3 obrien fillies, in this , there may not be that much between them, this one had a poor run last time, but her maiden looked the best performance of the 3, good value to come back to form.

1 Point EW..

Is that not 6:55?

longshotvalue

17. Famous, Curragh 3:05 this should be the ideal Trip, and has looked decent enough in other G1 races and that form might be enough here, with any improvement, and racing more prominantly.

2 Point Win 7/1

18 Awe Inspiring, 100/1, Curragh 3:40 altough well held last time, got badly hampered, and wouldnt be that surprising to see a good bit of improvement here, worth a tiny EW.

.5 points EW..

19 Masta Plasta , 6/1 . Curragh 4:45, has been running well this year, and to me it looks a 2 horse race, altough he is drawn badly, his form is good enough this year to take this

2 Point win 6/1

longshotvalue

20 FULLANDBY 4:30 AYR, has been out of form this year, but this race raises a few alarm bells, the ground today has eased a bit from recent weeks, he is really carrying nothing, and a 7lbs claimer has been booked who is on a very decent run of form.. If he gets away well at all, he may be able to do something of this mark..

2pts Each Way 22/1 Skybet

longshotvalue

21 .Nawaaff 33/1 EW 2:45 Yarmouth, had a look at his last few races, and to me he looks like he needs the extra furlong, and has stuck reasonable decent in a few races, might be overpriced to place 33/1 EW Ladbrokes.. Betfair 50 win 12 Place.

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

22 Hypnosis , came up against a decent improver last time out and hung left last furlong, but still ran well, that form looks good in the context of 9/1 in this race, and mark.. Looks more of a 5/1 Shot to me.. 3:40 Catterick

2 Points Win 9/1 10.0 betfair.

longshotvalue

23 Fardyieh Ling 3:00. looks overpriced at 12/1 Ladbrokes, back to best trip and down in class

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

24 Whistleinthewind , Sandown 3:55, ticks a lot of boxes today, recent run over course at shorter was somewhat eyecatching, up in trip down in mark, very good claimer suddenly appears. Very Good 2yo form, sure to be doing something soon i feel so could be worth following.

2 Pts Each Way 25/1 SkyBet Betfair 29win 7.8 pl

mike65

Be helpful if you posted the results, so we can see like...:)

smelltheglove

N/R now Adrian,i have to say like the look of both harlestone times 12/1 and also flying destination 10/1 love to have a flutter on the Knight yard not big stakes but the yard is flying at the moment and have won me a nice few bob over the past few months,also harlestone times seems to be good E/W value on its seasonal return but may just need this run but again small stakes at a big price

smelltheglove

BOOOMM!

longshotvalue

25 York 3:40 SkyBet Dash

Sea Of Leaves , Has run some decent races this year, and looks underestimated in this race, he is drawn beside another 2 of the main fancies, and looks to be ready to have a decent race. Thing have not gone quite her way this year, particulary last race, but if shes recovered from that slipup could represent value here.. 33/1 EW Generally. I would hope that both selections may be available EW at 12345 placed tomorrow.

2 Points EW



26 Ascot Victoria Racing Club International Stakes 3:50

Advanced, I’ve been following this horse again this year after having some success last year, he has got the plum draw in the middle, which has the best record in this type of race in Ascot, and today the ground was described as best down the middle by the clerk of the course.. Although he hasn’t place yet in this type of race this year, he has only been a length or 2 away and has come down to the same mark he won a similar race last year over C&D. Betfair’s price of 47win 6 place may improve tomorrow particularly the place price, and he is available at 33/1 StanJames and 28/1 elsewhere. I feel he’s an excellent each way bet and looks sure to give a decent run for your money..



2 Points EW

longshotvalue

Shocking run so far, better end soon....:o:o

longshotvalue

Sky BET paying 12345 both above races...

longshotvalue

27 Methally ASCOT 1:30 , back to half decent mark, and 7f, won ladies race this year, and may be priomed again for this, value at 50/1 EW

1 Point EW

longshotvalue

28 Musaafar, Ascot 3:15. Hint that he is persisted with over 1m, in a muddling race, he was obviously highly tough of and wouldnt be a 25/1 surprise if he came back to some form here.

1 Point Each way 25/1

winslow

aidankkk wrote: »

27 Methally ASCOT 1:30 , back to half decent mark, and 7f, won ladies race this year, and may be priomed again for this, value at 50/1 EW

1 Point EW

Thanks to this post, I had Rosko, Methally and Abbondanza in combination forecasts and tricasts. Unfortunately, I placed the larger wagers on the tricasts instead of the forecasts. Still a nice little win.

Thanks Aidan!!

deewhy

winslow wrote: »

Thanks to this post, I had Rosko, Methally and Abbondanza in combination forecasts and tricasts. Unfortunately, I placed the larger wagers on the tricasts instead of the forecasts. Still a nice little win.

Thanks Aidan!!

more than a nice little win f/cast paid £424 - exacta £561!!

winslow

deewhy wrote: »

more than a nice little win f/cast paid £424 - exacta £561!!

Yes, the problem is that I usually play the forecast at 50c a line and the tricast at 25c a line - they hardly ever come in. Unfortunately, in my rush I reversed the order so I put 27c on each line of the combination forecast.

So for a 27c bet, it returned CAD $114.74 ( On that site I wager in Canadian dollars)

longshotvalue

had to have a tiny bet on star rover at 140/16 on betfair in the sprint, old fav of mine...

smelltheglove

also had a nibble at star rover on betfair...cheers for methally earlier on mate had a 35 quid free bet and stuck 17.50 e/w on methally in the first!!! big fuppin boooooom thanks man!

longshotvalue

Beethoven, 33/1 EW, Sussex, just looks Epic Value to be placed here, may not be much between him and Premio Loco but he's 4 times the price. Good Tough animal that might Mustle his way into a place.

2 Points Each WAY

Caun Na Grai, 14/1 Galway Plate. His record on good ground is really top class, and could easily be the best horse in the race, looks well in to me in this field. Loves the course won the galway hurdle a few years back

3 Points Win

longshotvalue

Issabella Gem Goodwood 4:00, might just have a few pounds in hand on the handicapper here in a difficult looking race, and looks overpriced and has looked like the step up in trip would help.

1 Point Each Way 33/1 Stan James