LongShotValue "Flat" 100 Bets to Broke AGAIN

smelltheglove

crap i was watching that race aswell didint have a bet but my phone was stuffed down the side of the couch took it out and saw your tweet!! 12's on the place would have been nice great stuff again mate!

Kod-box

when the fave was taken out it went into 7.6 for a place, maybe higher but thats all i got.

longshotvalue

jeez it came from miles back, very fast in the finish, probably worth watching next time of this mark.. My 12.5 ended up being reduced to 10.5..

scopper

aidankkk wrote: »

jeez it came from miles back, very fast in the finish, probably worth watching next time of this mark.. My 12.5 ended up being reduced to 10.5..

One to watch for sure. Great pick by the way. If I'd have had more time to think about I'd have placed as well, but thems the breaks but I have to give you props for picking that one out.

longshotvalue

3:10 Newmarket - Mata Keranjan
This horse has been one to avoid trying to break his maiden on a number of occasions, but gets in here on a very decent mark, taking into consideration that he finally won a race (albeit a very poor maiden a few days ago) that may bring him on. He ran a very decent race over the C&D earlier on this year off a far higher mark, and the odds of him improving are better than his current odds of 24.0 win 4.8 place
Bet: 1 Point Win 1 Point Place

4:35 Haydock - Fullandby
His last race looked like a return to some form after previous very poor runs. The softer going and his current mark should give him an excellent chance considering he won and ran well of higher marks last year, once there was some cut in the going. Currently 15.0 win 3.5 place
Bet: 1 Point Win 1 Point Place

4:30 Ascot: Macarthur
His last run was eye-catching in that he passed a lot of horses from a very poor position over a longer trip, but the combination of his mark here and very decent jockey up should see him in with a chance at a good price to recapture some of his old form. Currently 10 to win.
Bet: 1 Point Win

3:25 Haydock: Dream Lodge
In a very difficult race, the top weight he has to carry is helped by excellent 5lbs claimer and the fact that he has come down a few pounds this year while running well. His run at York off 3 lbs higher with no claimer on boards reads well for this race, as he stayed on well and the extra two furlongs might just suit. Currently 24.0 to win 4.7 place
Bet: 1 Point Win 1 Point Place

TheMilkyPirate

aidankkk wrote: »

3:10 Newmarket - Mata Keranjan
This horse has been one to avoid trying to break his maiden on a number of occasions, but gets in here on a very decent mark, taking into consideration that he finally won a race (albeit a very poor maiden a few days ago) that may bring him on. He ran a very decent race over the C&D earlier on this year off a far higher mark, and the odds of him improving are better than his current odds of 24.0 win 4.8 place
Bet: 1 Point Win 1 Point Place]

N/R aidan.

Verance

Most bookies going 1/4 odds for places on those, can get some tasty e/w prices!

longshotvalue

Grean Manalishi, 3:45 Beverley. Last few runs have been poor over 6f, but has come back suddenly from poor runs numerous times in the past, he is dropped back to 5f here and is of a very good mark.

1 Point Each way 14/1 Generally.

longshotvalue

Fatanah 4:05 Salisbury, overpriced because Hills chosen the wrong one, last run was poor enough , but in a far superiour race, and run before would be enough to take this race, looks overpriced.

1 Point Each Way 12/1

longshotvalue

4th, but this got hampered badly a few times, and looks ready to win of this mark, hope im looking the day he runs next..

longshotvalue

Woodford Belle, Newbury 3:10, altough up 3 lbs for last 2nd place, the conditions of this race should really suit, getting all the allowences and she may be difficult to kick out of the places here.

1 Point win 2 Points Place

Currently 18.0 win 4.5 place 18/1 With Skybet

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Woodford Belle, Newbury 3:10, altough up 3 lbs for last 2nd place, the conditions of this race should really suit, getting all the allowences and she may be difficult to kick out of the places here.

1 Point win 2 Points Place

Currently 18.0 win 4.5 place 18/1 With Skybet

Non Runner:(

longshotvalue

After 45 Bets

Betfair Starting Price + 50.80 - 7.04 Comm + 43.76 Points
Advised Price + 48.9 - 6.95 Comm +41.96 Points

longshotvalue

3.30 Ripon - Advanced - 1 point win, 2 point place
I've been following this horse for the last few years and he always seems to pop up in a decent handicap. His form has been a bit below his best this year, but his last run in the Stewarts' Cup looked decent as he finished well and may just be coming into form again. He has got a decent draw wide in 17 which should suit his front running style. He has been coming down the weights this year and is now back to below his winning mark of last year. The sight ease in the going won't be a disadvantage as he stays 7f and looks value. Currently 17.5 to win 4.6 to place


3.30 Ripon - Noverre To Go - 2 point win, 2 point place
Has been unlucky in his last two races with the draw and looks to have the best form in the race. He is drawn in 11 which is in the middle and is the stall with the best record around here. Looks overpriced at 16 win 3.75 place


Newmarket 3:20 - Jira - 1 point win, 1 point place
This one looks to be the outsider of the field, but at current odds of 46w/9.5pl and the prospect of it going out further, she represents value to come back to some form over a shorter trip with a tongue-tie tried. She had two very decent runs earlier this year, and was very good over 6f as a 2yo winning a listed race.

longshotvalue

Have to look for a few Soft Ground Horses for Today.

2:30 Newbury, Golden Sword, Altough his last run was poor, he should improve on the softer going, and any kind of a return to form makes him decent value at 33/1 EW Boylesports. He has also this year run poorly followed by a much better run.

1 Point Each Way

2:45 Newmarket, Sunshine Always, bit of a shot in the dark here as he hasnt run on turf for a long time, but a number of alarm bells, in that he has been campaigned on AW, his mark has gone down considerably, and suddenly appears in a 6furlong Handicap on the Turf, he has run really well on soft before and should be worth a shot. 25/1 ew

1 Point Each Way

longshotvalue

3.30 Ripon - Noverre To Go - 2 point win, 2 point place
Has been unlucky in his last two races with the draw and looks to have the best form in the race. He is drawn in 11 which is in the middle and is the stall with the best record around here. Looks overpriced at 16 win 3.75 place


Non Runner

thesandeman

^ Suits me. Makes the L15 easier to sort out. Fingers crossed.

POINTBREAK

aidankkk wrote: »

3.30 Ripon - Noverre To Go - 2 point win, 2 point place
Has been unlucky in his last two races with the draw and looks to have the best form in the race. He is drawn in 11 which is in the middle and is the stall with the best record around here. Looks overpriced at 16 win 3.75 place


Non Runner

I thought you might have given Fullandby another chance?

longshotvalue

POINTBREAK wrote: »

I thought you might have given Fullandby another chance?

I'm probably going to put up another for this race in a while, torn between a few including fullandby.. The ground will certainly suit.. I'll wait to see what the value is.. Tom segal has selected him and it will probably effect the value on him..

longshotvalue

3:30 Ripon, im going to go with one low drawn to cover both sides as there is a lot of decent horses low and the high draw may not be as much of an advantage as it usually is... Knot in Wood, @ 25win 5 place, may represent value here, he has run well on soft and it looks significant to me that Hanagan choses him, as you would think a few pounds off might have helped..

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

Going to put in a GAA bet for the laugh really here, Waterford look underrated to me, and Tipp seem overrated on the strength of one good display last year.. The odds for Waterford to win by a few points looks overpriced, as they seem more capable of maybe getting a few goals and have what looks a stronger bench, id go for small bet Like this

1 Point Paddypower Waterford to win 4-6 Points 10/1
1 Point Ladbrokes Waterford to win 7-9 Points 20/1

the alternative for some might be Padddypower Waterford -4 6/1..

longshotvalue

Look Busy Ponte 3:40, looks way overpriced to come back to form, has some excuses last 2 runs and isnt a 40/1 chance here. Betfair 42 win 9.2 Place

1 Point win 2 Points Place.

longshotvalue

York 1:45 Old Joe Said, 28/1 EW, not sure why i think today could be the day for this one, good run at the course a few runs ago, and vastly down in handicap from his best, mostly gut feeling here.

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

York 3:25, Cutlass Bay, if his last run can be ignored, and take into account stable form, he may just have a better that 5.1 chance of placing . Currently 6.2 to place on betfair. Any rain would help

1 Point Place

longshotvalue

York 1:45 Strike Up the Band, Really hasnt been running well this year, but needs to lead early and this hasnt happened yet, no surpirse if he bolts out in front and may be hard to pass of current mark. Nichols relys on him here which is significant. 19.5 Win 4.6 Place (4 places on betfair), also has form on softer going

1 Point win 2 Points Place

longshotvalue

Markazzi, York 4:40, going to give this one a chance, obviously well enough tought of, got hampered numerous times last run, and a mark of 88 might just be generous. Stable has decent record in race.. Betfair 27win 5.9 place

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

Tote Ebor at York (15:25)

Desert Sea looks to be underestimated here - he ran a very good race behind Overturn to be 3rd in Newcastle and has a 6lbs turnaround for a 3 lengths beating. He made up a lot of ground to get competitive and ran out of steam near the end, but that run should bring him on more. With Overturn at 6.4 and Desert Sea at 45 to win 7.2 to place, it's clearly a bit of value (to place especially) as he should be staying on at the end.
1 point win, 2 point place.


Ajaan - this one has threatened in the past a number of times, but hopefully has been aimed at this. The best of his form would put him in with a good chance here, and looks a value bet at win 44.0 Place 7.8
1 point win 1 point plac

Nulty

aidankkk wrote: »

Tote Ebor at York (15:25)

Desert Sea looks to be underestimated here - he ran a very good race behind Overturn to be 3rd in Newcastle and has a 6lbs turnaround for a 3 lengths beating. He made up a lot of ground to get competitive and ran out of steam near the end, but that run should bring him on more. With Overturn at 6.4 and Desert Sea at 45 to win 7.2 to place, it's clearly a bit of value (to place especially) as he should be staying on at the end.
1 point win, 2 point place.


Ajaan - this one has threatened in the past a number of times, but hopefully has been aimed at this. The best of his form would put him in with a good chance here, and looks a value bet at win 44.0 Place 7.8
1 point win 1 point plac

Exactly what I was thinking Aidan. Desert Sea is my second choice after Demolition. struggled between the two.

Nulty

5th and 6th Aidan. Unlucky, the pace was strong enough but other just better treated.

longshotvalue

Nulty wrote: »

5th and 6th Aidan. Unlucky, the pace was strong enough but other just better treated.

yeah dam talk about hitting the crossbar:(, especially at those prices.. .