LongShotValue "Flat" 100 Bets to Broke AGAIN

longshotvalue

Equiano, 4/1 Paddy Power , certainly overpriced, should be 5/2 at most.. 5 Furlongs, best form this year, somewhat poor enough draw, but hopefuly never sees another horse... 5 Points win 4/1

longshotvalue

Mith Hill York 4:40, i like the look of his last run, and with the additional of a 7lbs claimer, may just be able to get competative here. looks overpriced

Betfair 44 win 7 place

1 Point Win 2 Points Place

Verance

aidankkk wrote: »

Equiano, 4/1 Paddy Power , certainly overpriced, should be 5/2 at most.. 5 Furlongs, best form this year, somewhat poor enough draw, but hopefuly never sees another horse... 5 Points win 4/1

5s now on Stan James for their happy hour!

longshotvalue

Verance wrote: »

5s now on Stan James for their happy hour!

i saw it and had what is for me a max bet on it, (probably an average bet for most), but it really does look value.. for me its at most 5/2 or 2/1

POINTBREAK

I don't like them when they drift, but good luck with it.

Nulty

It is a worry about the drift but they are often just trying to balance their books. The support for SSB is probably very strong due to the draw and the rest. A few people have spoken of Barry Hills in bad form but Ransom Note was in pretty good form yesterday.

longshotvalue

Nulty wrote: »

It is a worry about the drift but they are often just trying to balance their books. The support for SSB is probably very strong due to the draw and the rest. A few people have spoken of Barry Hills in bad form but Ransom Note was in pretty good form yesterday.

i generally dont mind drifters in group 1 races, but he has been in super form all season and they were bullish enough this morning.., really there is nothing beween both horses and its possible that equiano is better over 5f..

Nulty

I'm with you on this. Equiano is far too big a price. Franny Norton just told RUK that "It's like a ploughed field" on the stands side.

longshotvalue

never in with a shout, never jumped out and seemed amiss near the end.. ahh well such is racing, now to get the 40/1 placed

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Mith Hill York 4:40, i like the look of his last run, and with the additional of a 7lbs claimer, may just be able to get competative here. looks overpriced

Betfair 44 win 7 place

1 Point Win 2 Points Place

4th making up for equiano flop..

longshotvalue

Sandown 3:10 - Submariner - 1pt win, 1pt place
I liked the look of his latest run where he was hampered when just about to get going; and he is now of the mark of his last win. With Frankie up he looks overpriced at 14.5. He may be less exposed than a lot of the field and should be able to get competitive here.


Sandown 3:45 - Drawnfromthepast - 1pt win, 1pt place
His second last run was very good in the context of this race, he is drawn well in 11 - and should be a bit of value to catch on a going day. Currently 20.0 to win and 4.0 to place.


Ripon 4:10 - Sonny Red - 1pt win, 1pt place
His last run in the Stewarts Cup looks a bit better than the bare form reads, finishing well on the wrong side - and that might signal a return to some kind of form. Of this current mark and return to form would make his current price seems value around 22 win 5.3 place

makhally

just got on at the prices quoted .:)cheers

longshotvalue

Everymanforhimself, tiny EW on this one as hes been running in hot 6f handicaps all year, and the slower pace of this race might help

.5 Point each way 40/1

8-10

aidankkk wrote: »

Everymanforhimself, tiny EW on this one as hes been running in hot 6f handicaps all year, and the slower pace of this race might help

.5 Point each way 40/1

FYI, 3.25 @ Chester

longshotvalue

Acambo, Newtown Abbot, 3:30, ticks a lot of boxes for me today, The sudden appearance of a 7lbs claimer, step up in trip, and last time he ran on one of these summer hurdles he was suported, so hopefuly he is fit today, any return to form at all would put him in with asuperb shout. He has a few times in the past followed up very poor runs with vastly improved ones..

36win 7.2 Place Betfair

1 Point win 2 Points Place.

longshotvalue

After 67 Bets

Betfair Starting Price + 32.00 - 7.98 Comm + 24.62 Points
Advised Price + 31.7 - 7.94 Comm +23.77 Points

Bit of a shocking bad run..

longshotvalue

Yossi, 3:20 Muss, his last run looked decent enough, and he seemed to stay on a bit at the end again , a step up in trip, might help and he looks a bit of value at 15.0 on betfair

1 Point Win

longshotvalue

Nostringsattached , Fos Lass 7:20 , poor enough form this year, but superb performance last year over c&d, off a higher mark in a better race, any reproduction at all would give him a great chance here.. McCoy up to lift him home

1 Point win EW 16/1 Will Hill

longshotvalue

Sunshine Always, Newmarket 5:40, eyecatching run last time over c&d & ground, same mark here, and really stays further which might be an advantage with uphill finish. Betfair 21 win 4.5 place 1234.

2 Points Win 2 Points Place

longshotvalue

Lethal Glaze, Newmarket 4:05, a lot of questions about the other runners in this race, and this one is sure to stay on the ground, looks overpriced at 10/1 With Ladbrokes.

2 Point Win

longshotvalue

Offspring , Thirsk 4:25 looks a bit overpriced and 6f on good-firm seems to be his best. Not as exposed as some of the others, and judging by his win 2 runs ago, should have a squeek even up 4 lbs..

2 Points Win 7/1

longshotvalue

Simply cannot find a horse today, shocking racing for a saturday, the 3 i put up last night on betfair, have come down in price so im not so the value may be gone a bit.

Ill go for a Lucky 15 of the following

15:30 - Beverly totesport.com Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes
I like to look of Captain Dunne in this and even though he doesn't have the ideal draw, he may be near enough the middle to get across if required. He has been consistent this year off his current mark. He is also the highest rated in the race. 6/1



14:30 Goodwood Windflower March Stakes
I'm going to give Golden Sword one more chance. In his latest run, the penny seemed to drop near the end and it was an improvement. The soft going along with the step up in trip should really suit him and he has a decent chance here at a good price. 6/1

14:15 Newmarket Chris Blackwell Memorial Handicap

Bintalwaadi looks to be one of the least exposed in the field and leaving out his last run where he seemed amiss, he may be the sort of improving horse to win this type of 3yo handicap. He ran well in his maiden on heavy ground, and the drop back to 7f from a few runs at 1 mile should also suit him. 7/1


2:00 Goodwood.


Mata Keranjang, finally won last time, and that may waken him up to try, unknown on Good-Soft, but is the only 3yo in the field and is getting a lot of Weight from the main fancies. 8/1




3 Points Total . Win Lucky 15. i.e. .2 per point.. Celtic have a trebble the odds on one winner, im not sure if there is any better so ill go for that..

longshotvalue

Tax Free , Curragh 3:45, going against the poorish draw here, as i think if back to form he has a bit in hand over most of the field and represents value. His last run looked like a return to form and 12/1 EW looks value to me

2 Point Each Way 12/1 Paddy Power

longshotvalue

Picture Perfect, Curr 4:50, looks somewhat well treated on best form and may improve for first run after break. Only carrying 8:5 with 3yo all and 5lbs claimer.

Betfair 34 win 7.2 place


1 Point win 1 point Place

longshotvalue

Strike Up The Band, Epson 3:10, im stuck here between Oldjoesaid and this one, but this one has decent course form, and even his midfield run in the dash of 10lbs higher might be good enough here. He has gone down massivly in the weights, and one of these days he wont be caught..

2 Points Each Way 20/1 Stan James

longshotvalue

Keys of Cyprus , Ripon 4:10, look a bit overpriced here at 40win 6.6 place, last run was eyecatching enough, altough he had to be worked hard enough, when the gap came he did pick up in the finish. seems a bit of value.

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Strike Up The Band, Epson 3:10, im stuck here between Oldjoesaid and this one, but this one has decent course form, and even his midfield run in the dash of 10lbs higher might be good enough here. He has gone down massivly in the weights, and one of these days he wont be caught..

2 Points Each Way 20/1 Stan James

3rd at 12/1:)

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Keys of Cyprus , Ripon 4:10, look a bit overpriced here at 40win 6.6 place, last run was eyecatching enough, altough he had to be worked hard enough, when the gap came he did pick up in the finish. seems a bit of value.

1 Point win 1 Point Place

3rd paying 10.2 to place:):)

thesandeman

Nice one. Only spotted the 2nd one at eight minutes past. Just got on in time.

longshotvalue

Leicester 3:10, Akula , gut feeling here, last run was staying on and mark looks pretty decent, one very decent run last year on soft, and step up in trip and soft ground may give it a chance here..

1 Point EW 20/1 Ladbrokes