LongShotValue "Flat" 100 Bets to Broke AGAIN

longshotvalue

Here we go again, same rules..

• No Big Dog Racing AW
• No Irish Midweek Donkey racing

longshotvalue

1. Equiano, July Cup, 16/1 EW, Has looked very good this year, and really finishes his races well, giving the impression he may well stay the 6f, he has run well 6f before..

3 Points EW 16/1

2. Kingsgate Native, July Cup , definatly has the class to win this, and with equiano is a value bet here. Prices are huge because of teh fav being too short

2 Points EW 16/1

3. Da Re MI, King George, Vastly overpriced, because of poor enough run the other day, at a trip too short when the trainer said she may need it.. Most proven form in the race, and super consistant making her great EW value.

3 Points EW 14/1 Skybet

longshotvalue

4. Green Manalishi 4:30 pont today

Is of a mark here and well drawn, anything resembling a return to form makes the 13.0 win 3.6 place good value.

1 Point Win 1 Points Place.

longshotvalue

5. Seeking Dubai New 1:30, 20/1 EW, last run was more interesting than placing suggested, may just have this type of race in mind, step up in trip should suit..

1 Point EW 20/1

6. MISTER HUGHIE 25/1 EW, New 2:00, Solid Form, and looks well drawn, listed run recently looks decent considering mark..

1 Point EW 25/1

darsar

aidankkk wrote: »

5. Seeking Dubai New 2:30, 20/1 EW, last run was more interesting than placing suggested, may just have this type of race in mind, step up in trip should

What day is this? I got Mister Hughie today alright....

longshotvalue

darsar wrote: »

What day is this? I got Mister Hughie today alright....

Just changed the time its 1:30 today

longshotvalue

7. Gile Na Greine , 3:10 Newm. may well be the 2nd best horse in the race and last run was impressive, really sticking to task in the end..

Betfair 21 win 4.7 Place

1 Points win 2 Points Place

smelltheglove

got yer twitter to my fone back both horses only small stakes also back knights horse in the same race as seeking dubai,"sweet clementine" also in the same race as mister hughie i backed fireback from andrew baldings yard dropped back in trip and davey probert booked should give a good account for its self

longshotvalue

smelltheglove wrote: »

got yer twitter to my fone back both horses only small stakes also back knights horse in the same race as seeking dubai,"sweet clementine" also in the same race as mister hughie i backed fireback from andrew baldings yard dropped back in trip and davey probert booked should give a good account for its self

Have backed fireback myself for that one on betfair, i was kind of stuck between the 2.. Good Luck..

Vurnon San Benito

I'm now following you on Twitter Aidan.

Looking forward to your tips

longshotvalue

smelltheglove wrote: »

got yer twitter to my fone back both horses only small stakes also back knights horse in the same race as seeking dubai,"sweet clementine" also in the same race as mister hughie i backed fireback from andrew baldings yard dropped back in trip and davey probert booked should give a good account for its self

Well done

smelltheglove

****in delighted 25/1 fireback...only small stakes but great return few quid to blow on the world cup tonight and im on music show in gile ne greines race that filly has cost me a few quid over the last few races but will give her one more chance today...will also stick a few bob on gile na greine cause if it goes in ill be sick lol

x PyRo

Best of luck with the thread Aidan.

Put up Fireback @ 22/1 last night myself, Won a small fortune and covered my last couple of week of horror.

longshotvalue

x PyRo wrote: »

Best of luck with the thread Aidan.

Put up Fireback @ 22/1 last night myself, Won a small fortune and covered my last couple of week of horror.

Saw that, as i said above, had a little bit on him as well, Might have another cut on MISTER HUGHIE soon tough , got shockingly hampered, and finished of quite well in the end..

x PyRo

Poor Mister Hughie alway seems to meet trouble, Could win at a huge price soon I'd say.

smelltheglove

yeah mister hughie like sweet clementine today met trouble in running i will be keeping an eye on "sweet clementine" it stayed on very stronly for 4th in the end WJ knights yard is flying aswell this year

deewhy

Backed Fireback as well - ave price 21 on BF:D:D.

Taking the form line from the Brittania in Ascot where Fireback was 9th, Secretive who finished 4th (9's on bf) in the last looks attractive. At bigger prices the booking of Fallon on Directorship a horse that has a handicap in him, catches the eye. 18.5 on bf at the moment. Will do an exacta with these two.

POINTBREAK

Anything today?

longshotvalue

nothing today, dont really like these 3yo handicaps, Equaino tomorrow tough:)..

longshotvalue

1. Equiano, July Cup, 16/1 EW, Has looked very good this year, and really finishes his races well, giving the impression he may well stay the 6f, he has run well 6f before..

3 Points EW 16/1

2. Kingsgate Native, July Cup , definatly has the class to win this, and with equiano is a value bet here. Prices are huge because of the fav being too short

2 Points EW 16/1

Previously Advised running tomorrow..



8 Noble Citizen 18/1 EW, ran very well last time over trip too long, extended 7f here might be perfect, very solid of this mark, and well drawn tomorrow. Ascot 2:35

1 Point EW

POINTBREAK

Is it a point ew Noble?

longshotvalue

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Is it a point ew Noble?

o yeah ill edit it now

longshotvalue

9. Advanced, Newm 2:35, his place price on Betfair of 7.0 is simply to big to ignore, tough horse who is back to last winning mark, and allways give a good account. Betfair 36 7.0

1 Point win 2 Points Place.

Kod-box

aidankkk wrote: »

1. Equiano, July Cup, 16/1 EW, Has looked very good this year, and really finishes his races well, giving the impression he may well stay the 6f, he has run well 6f before..

Donn McLean tipped this up aswell on off the ball tonight.

pejesus

aidankkk wrote: »

9. Advanced, Newm 2:35, his place price on Betfair of 7.0 is simply to big to ignore, tough horse who is back to last winning mark, and allways give a good account. Betfair 36 7.0

1 Point win 2 Points Place.

its 22/1 with pp now

smelltheglove

backed your selctions as usual also had a small e/w on dubai dynamo,ruth carr has her string in good order and the horse has been running well of late also might get into the places at 33/1

Kod-box

good shout on Equiano, took the place @ 4.5

POINTBREAK

aidankkk wrote: »

1. Equiano, July Cup, 16/1 EW, Has looked very good this year, and really finishes his races well, giving the impression he may well stay the 6f, he has run well 6f before..

3 Points EW 16/1 Thought he was going to do it at one stage.

2. Kingsgate Native, July Cup , definatly has the class to win this, and with equiano is a value bet here. Prices are huge because of the fav being too short

2 Points EW 16/1 Finished 4th

Previously Advised running tomorrow..



8 Noble Citizen 18/1 EW, ran very well last time over trip too long, extended 7f here might be perfect, very solid of this mark, and well drawn tomorrow. Ascot 2:35

1 Point EW

This one was heavily supported down to 9/1 but didn't feature.

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

1. Equiano, July Cup, 16/1 EW, Has looked very good this year, and really finishes his races well, giving the impression he may well stay the 6f, he has run well 6f before..

3 Points EW 16/1 Great run, probably cost himself the race running down the middle, should have put it up to SBB all the way, 2 fantastic sprinters tough.. He rallied again near the line, and id probably have him against SBB next time, wont be such good value then tough

2. Kingsgate Native, July Cup , definatly has the class to win this, and with equiano is a value bet here. Prices are huge because of the fav being too short

2 Points EW 16/1, Good run again, for 4th, not very far away, but the front 2 look streets ahead of everything else..

longshotvalue

10 Albaqaa 3:05 York, solid enough of this mark this year, last run was decent enough considering poor start, and now look overpriced for this.. 3rd last year of lower.. 33/1 Bookies 46w 7.1 pl betfair.

1 Point EW.


11 Shadows Lengthen 3:05 york, If above has a chance , this one also has to be in with a chance at a huge price, his last 2 runs were too far, and has the 5lbs claimer back on when he was running well earlier this year, is carrying nothing, and has a 6lb turnaround for 1 length.. Betfair 85win 8 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place..

The place price may get much better on this one tomorrow when the market get stronger.

digme

aidankkk sometimes I find it hard to follow what race your on about
I really enjoy your tips though you made me a small fortune last time you did this.

longshotvalue

12 Star Rover, Chester 3:20, Reasonably well drawn, and around here, if he can get out in front, which he is liable to do, he may be difficult to knock out of the places on the short run in..

1 Point EW 33/1 Paddy Power

longshotvalue

13 Courageous York 2:00.. Visor tried, second run this year was good, and has dropped to a very good mark. Might be capable of performing here Betfair 30win 8.6 Place

1 point win 1 point Place

longshotvalue

14 Billy Dane York 2:30, well drawn for a front runner, is down to a good mark, and showed some decent toughness in the past.. Drop in weights and draw bound to help him stay on . Betfair 25 win 6.4

1 pt win 1 pt place

longshotvalue

15 Layline 4:30 Lingfield, only 2 unexposed 3yos in the field, and very interesting that this one ran first time out in big handicap altough never really got i a blow. With the 3yo allowence and a run behind him, looks value at 11/1.. 13.5 on Betfair

2 Points Win.

POINTBREAK

That does look to be between the two 3 years olds when you look at the weights and Official ratings . They are getting 9lb and 12lb from horses that are rated much the same as they are. The filly is 6/4 and Layline is around 10/1 -12/1 so its an easy decision as to which one to back.
Really interesting targeting the Britannia with Layline first time out. They must think very highly of it, or maybe the owner just wanted another runner at the meeting. She also owns Swingkeel.

longshotvalue

Have to admit i ended up getting 12/1 with Ladbrokes, and went for EW then as 12/1 is my min price for e/w betting.. Dont usually look at poor midweek racing but this looks a half decent race.. Id say odds of more like 7/1 are more realistic for this ones chance..

longshotvalue

Ended up 6/1, traded at 1.07 :eek: in running but finished 2nd:(.

longshotvalue

16. Looking Lovely 8:55 Leop, 20/1 EW. Of the 3 obrien fillies, in this , there may not be that much between them, this one had a poor run last time, but her maiden looked the best performance of the 3, good value to come back to form.

1 Point EW..

colly54

aidankkk wrote: »

16. Looking Lovely 8:55 Leop, 20/1 EW. Of the 3 obrien fillies, in this , there may not be that much between them, this one had a poor run last time, but her maiden looked the best performance of the 3, good value to come back to form.

1 Point EW..

Is that not 6:55?

longshotvalue

17. Famous, Curragh 3:05 this should be the ideal Trip, and has looked decent enough in other G1 races and that form might be enough here, with any improvement, and racing more prominantly.

2 Point Win 7/1

18 Awe Inspiring, 100/1, Curragh 3:40 altough well held last time, got badly hampered, and wouldnt be that surprising to see a good bit of improvement here, worth a tiny EW.

.5 points EW..

19 Masta Plasta , 6/1 . Curragh 4:45, has been running well this year, and to me it looks a 2 horse race, altough he is drawn badly, his form is good enough this year to take this

2 Point win 6/1

longshotvalue

20 FULLANDBY 4:30 AYR, has been out of form this year, but this race raises a few alarm bells, the ground today has eased a bit from recent weeks, he is really carrying nothing, and a 7lbs claimer has been booked who is on a very decent run of form.. If he gets away well at all, he may be able to do something of this mark..

2pts Each Way 22/1 Skybet

longshotvalue

21 .Nawaaff 33/1 EW 2:45 Yarmouth, had a look at his last few races, and to me he looks like he needs the extra furlong, and has stuck reasonable decent in a few races, might be overpriced to place 33/1 EW Ladbrokes.. Betfair 50 win 12 Place.

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

22 Hypnosis , came up against a decent improver last time out and hung left last furlong, but still ran well, that form looks good in the context of 9/1 in this race, and mark.. Looks more of a 5/1 Shot to me.. 3:40 Catterick

2 Points Win 9/1 10.0 betfair.

longshotvalue

23 Fardyieh Ling 3:00. looks overpriced at 12/1 Ladbrokes, back to best trip and down in class

1 Point Win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

24 Whistleinthewind , Sandown 3:55, ticks a lot of boxes today, recent run over course at shorter was somewhat eyecatching, up in trip down in mark, very good claimer suddenly appears. Very Good 2yo form, sure to be doing something soon i feel so could be worth following.

2 Pts Each Way 25/1 SkyBet Betfair 29win 7.8 pl

mike65

Be helpful if you posted the results, so we can see like...:)

smelltheglove

N/R now Adrian,i have to say like the look of both harlestone times 12/1 and also flying destination 10/1 love to have a flutter on the Knight yard not big stakes but the yard is flying at the moment and have won me a nice few bob over the past few months,also harlestone times seems to be good E/W value on its seasonal return but may just need this run but again small stakes at a big price

smelltheglove

BOOOMM!

longshotvalue

25 York 3:40 SkyBet Dash

Sea Of Leaves , Has run some decent races this year, and looks underestimated in this race, he is drawn beside another 2 of the main fancies, and looks to be ready to have a decent race. Thing have not gone quite her way this year, particulary last race, but if shes recovered from that slipup could represent value here.. 33/1 EW Generally. I would hope that both selections may be available EW at 12345 placed tomorrow.

2 Points EW



26 Ascot Victoria Racing Club International Stakes 3:50

Advanced, I’ve been following this horse again this year after having some success last year, he has got the plum draw in the middle, which has the best record in this type of race in Ascot, and today the ground was described as best down the middle by the clerk of the course.. Although he hasn’t place yet in this type of race this year, he has only been a length or 2 away and has come down to the same mark he won a similar race last year over C&D. Betfair’s price of 47win 6 place may improve tomorrow particularly the place price, and he is available at 33/1 StanJames and 28/1 elsewhere. I feel he’s an excellent each way bet and looks sure to give a decent run for your money..



2 Points EW

longshotvalue

Shocking run so far, better end soon....:o:o