LongShotValue "Flat" 100 Bets to Broke AGAIN

Woddle

thesandeman wrote: »

^^Yep. Profitable day for Boardsies. Anyone know how Woddle done? Not found his posts yet :-S

Friday and Saturday were brutal, back to winning ways today.

longshotvalue

Marjolly Brighton 5:30, look overpriced given that his last run look like a bit of a return to form, and has decent chance of placing of this mark. Betfair 48 8.0

1 Point win 2 Points Place

longshotvalue

Will Jamie Run, Kerry National, looking again at his national run, he was really going well but didnt stay, the shorter trip around here really should suit, and he might be a bit overpriced at 16/1 Ladbrokes


2 Points Each Way 16/1 Ladbrokes

longshotvalue

Whistleinthewind, Sand 5:10, long way down in handicap, is surly going to score at some stage. Even some of his midfield runs over c&D with this mark should have a real chance of placing at least.

2 Points Each Way 20/1 Celtic..

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Whistleinthewind, Sand 5:10, long way down in handicap, is surly going to score at some stage. Even some of his midfield runs over c&D with this mark should have a real chance of placing at least.

2 Points Each Way 20/1 Celtic..

2nd to the FAV, not so bad..:)

longshotvalue

Keys of Cyprus , Ayr 3:50, this ones last run was very good 3rd in a class 2 handicap, when finishing well. Has won over the course before and will like the softer ground. Dropping 2 classes of race here on more suitable going off the same mark, makes 7/1 available look very good value.

2 Point Win 7/1

longshotvalue

AKULA, Yar 5:10, last run was an improvement, and ran well for 4th. He looked to me to be a stayer who might plug on here. He has the 3yo allowence, and 2miles in soft around here and weight is going to matter, looks well overpirced on betfair at 65 win 10.0 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place.

longshotvalue

Ishe Mac, 4:00 PonteGoing on gut feeling, here, he seems a 6f horse that has been running over 7f this year (hopefully to get back to decent mark), he has Fran norton back on who won on him last, and trainer has very good recored here this year.. Not sure but just smells a bit like some possibility of set out for this race.. 70 win 11 place betfair worth a shot for small stakes at those odds

1 Point win 1 Point Place

longshotvalue

Last Bet on this tread i think this one makes it 101 bets..:o

Noverre To Go AYR Gold Cup. When i look at this race, almost all of his opposition in this race have all gone up for race wins and good performances lately, he has run superbly last twice on wrong side. If you look at his form with Genki when both finished on the wrong side in the wokingham, this reads very well of his current mark. He is a 6 furlong specialist has been consistant this year and is drawn 20 of 24 with as far as i can see all the quality from mid to high.. Looks to me to be far to high considering everything.

2 Points Each Way 25/1 Stan James paying 12345..

thesandeman

Cheers Aidan. Lets hope the thread finishes on a high note ;-)

longshotvalue

Oldjoesaid, Ayr Bronze Cup, finished like a train last time, over 6 on Good - Soft, from a middle draw, really should be fav at about 8/1 at best. Anything like old form would be
well good enough here..
2 Points Each Way 14/1 Paddy Power 12345.....

Nulty

aidankkk wrote: »

Last Bet on this tread i think this one makes it 101 bets..:o

Noverre To Go AYR Gold Cup. When i look at this race, almost all of his opposition in this race have all gone up for race wins and good performances lately, he has run superbly last twice on wrong side. If you look at his form with Genki when both finished on the wrong side in the wokingham, this reads very well of his current mark. He is a 6 furlong specialist has been consistant this year and is drawn 20 of 24 with as far as i can see all the quality from mid to high.. Looks to me to be far to high considering everything.

2 Points Each Way 25/1 Stan James paying 12345..

Nice picking there Aiden

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Oldjoesaid, Ayr Bronze Cup, finished like a train last time, over 6 on Good - Soft, from a middle draw, really should be fav at about 8/1 at best. Anything like old form would be
well good enough here..
2 Points Each Way 14/1 Paddy Power 12345.....

20/1 with Stan James EW1234 look good value atm..

longshotvalue

EverymanforHimself, Ayr Bronze cup, Been looking at this one a few times this year waiting for him to do something, he was gambled on last time, and got no room altough he was too far back at the time, but he is drawn perfectly wide ehre, and usually get out well, if he does get out well from this draw he may be hard to pass of this mark.

1 Point Each Way 40/1 Paddy Power 12345

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

EverymanforHimself, Ayr Bronze cup, Been looking at this one a few times this year waiting for him to do something, he was gambled on last time, and got no room altough he was too far back at the time, but he is drawn perfectly wide ehre, and usually get out well, if he does get out well from this draw he may be hard to pass of this mark.

1 Point Each Way 40/1 Paddy Power 12345

4th:):):) 13.5 BSP to place...

thesandeman

Fair play Aidan. Yourself and Xpyro have made my week B-)

longshotvalue

AYR Gold Cup 3:20

Noverre To Go. Already advised 25/1 EW 12345


Quest For Success. Similar profile to above selection, has been running very well all this year, looks like he will like the slight cut in the going and again is drawn wide in 23 which looks a must in this race. His run in Ripon 3 runs ago looks a lot better than bare result as he was first on wrong side by a few lengths. Last run was poor enough after being backed. Currently 34 win 9 place

1 Point win 2 Points Place.


AYR Silver CUP 2:15

Able Master, Going with one of the outsiders of the field here, he has been racing on unsuitable firm going this year, but has a very decent record on going with some cut. He has come down 10lbs, and has had only 4 runs this year which can tell towards the end of the season. He is also drawn high in 22 which looks to be the right place. The jockey booking is interesting as he has a superb record this year for the trainer at 29%.. Currently 44 win 6 Place and could be a very big price tomorrow.
1 point Each Way Ladbrokes 50/1
Pavershooz , Ran a good race in the same Ripon race as above also drawn on the wrong side, and his 3rd last run at Ayr reads well considering his current price. He again is drawn high, and will prefer good or softer going, looks a decent prospect of a place. Currently 38 win 8.2 Place

1 Point win 1 Point Place



Dubai Airport World Trophy Newbury 3:40

Total Gallery, Highest rated in the race, and is taking a big step down from racing in G1s this year. He has had relatively little racing this year compared to the rest of the field, and looks overpriced considering his rating. Im going to give him a chance to come back to form in this easier race. Currently 15.5 win 4.4 place

1 Point win 1 Point Place.



Dubai Duty Free Stakes Newbury 3:05

Demolition, Ignoring his last run where he didn’t stay in the Tote Ebor, his previous 2 runs look very good off around his current mark, and give him a great chance here back to his best trip. He just looks overpriced at 29 win 5.8 Place

1 Point win 2 Points Place.

almat1981

Noverre To Go. Already advised 25/1 EW 12345

Am on this as well looks good for tomorrow .
Good shout with the place today . Had the winner (thanks to xpyro) but made more on the place

longshotvalue

Dubai Duty Free Stakes Newbury 3:05

Demolition, Ignoring his last run where he didn’t stay in the Tote Ebor, his previous 2 runs look very good off around his current mark, and give him a great chance here back to his best trip. He just looks overpriced at 29 win 5.8 Place

1 Point win 2 Points Place.

[/QUOTE]


4th for Nice 2 points for the place

longshotvalue

Ok so this tread has come to and end Thank god.

I ended up with 103 bets for a small profit of 32.47 points BSP which goes down to 20.25 when commission is deducted.

Very poor Winners/Runners ratio as there was only 4 winners, but a good number of higher priced placed horses saved it a bit.

Cant really complain much about being in profit even tough its Small enough, somewhere about 8% ROI in terms of points backed. I think where this one fell down was a number of the larger bets did not come off, Equiano loosing form and non runner in his next race cost me 11 points (6 without a run Ante post), Da Re Me cost me 6 points Again Antepost (i think Ante Post bets can be given a miss for the next one). Equiano did make me a packet before this tread started so on the year he was my best winner, pity he wont be racing anymore to be underestimated time and again.

One thing that is clear, it would be very difficult to be in profit backing in regular bookmakers, the odds on outsiders are vastly better on Betfair. This tread would be a big enough looser if depending on bookies prices..

Roll on the National Hunt Season...