Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Pangea

Pangea wrote: »

Holy bejabus, Think I need to build an underground bunker :eek:

dig it quick before the ground freezes!

delw

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Looking at the 18z GFS run, the signal continues to intensify for a very strong arctic outbreak starting around Thursday on this run ... basically what happens is that the high which gave the thaw and is now slowly chilling overhead is stretched out and destroyed by sudden events to the north where the Greenland high captures the height anomaly from the eastern Atlantic, and a huge polar hurricane (can't describe it as anything less) forms near Svalbard and drops rapidly south. This will have to be watched because as impressive as the current maps appear, if this feature were to hold together somewhat longer it would engulf Britain and Ireland in a very strong northerly of sub-freezing temperatures which is almost what the maps show now ... the only difference being that the northerly is rather strong instead of very strong.

I can't stress strongly enough that this will be a major winter weather onslaught and not just a drop in temperatures with a few local flurries.

This is like turning the eastern Atlantic into the Great Lakes, almost, when you have this much cold air rushing south this fast, it overcomes the normal tendencies of the Atlantic to modify air masses and turn streamers to mush. This setup could give blizzard like conditions even with winds somewhat west of due north, in many parts of Ireland. And we aren't that confident that the setup is perfectly modelled yet, what's probably equally likely at this point is that the polar low will drop into the North Sea and pull Siberian air across into the N-NE flow on following days. There is also a lot of super-cold air waiting to head west from central to northwest Russia and around Novaya Zemlya.

When this polar hurricane develops, winds are going to be 50-70 knots around Jan Mayen with temperatures of -12 C ... the ice margin will probably shift south in this period to reach limits not seen in recent years, and the Baltic Sea is rapidly freezing and spilling out 0-2 C water into the North Sea. All of these factors are building blocks towards what may become an epochal cold spell for Ireland and Britain in the next 20-30 day interval. :eek::pac:

well if your right MT & things pan out as you say people better prepare themselves as best they can,maybe a warning thread or is it still too early?

M.T. Cranium

My bad, the post above was supposed to be in the discussion thread for "return of cold" later in the week. But I'm sure that thread will either be updated or renamed soon. Let's see what the 00z model runs have to say about this. They start coming out in a few minutes, should be past the weekend by 0415. But this time I'll post in the other thread.

snow ghost

I don’t mean to sound alarmist, but I fear this could signal a major breakdown in social and physical infrastructure of a magnitude probably not seen for at least 1000 years in this country.

As the frosty grim reaper descends upon us next week, his silhouette will cast a terrifying shadow over us for a long-time to come - the country will essentially go into cardiac arrest as communications fail en masse, transport infrastructure crumbles to a halt and social structures tumble.

Best to look on the positive side and prepare for the worst.

snow ghost

snow ghost wrote: »

I don’t mean to sound alarmist, but I fear this could signal a major breakdown in social and physical infrastructure of a magnitude probably not seen for at least 1000 years in this country.

As the frosty grim reaper descends upon us next week, his silhouette will cast a terrifying shadow over us for a long-time to come - the country will essentially go into cardiac arrest as communications fail en masse, transport infrastructure crumbles to a halt and social structures tumble.

Best to look on the positive side and prepare for the worst.

Well if 15cm can bring the country almost to a stop, is anyone going to hazard a guess on how much snow could be dropped from this storm.

WolfeIRE

Or worse still Snow, we could run out of salt.

I do not believe the country will be prepared for another cold spell like the one just gone, let alone a more severe spell of weather let it be 4 days or 10 days in length.

A harsh period of weather is on the way undoubtedly. All we can do is be prepared from household to household and ensure we look after neighbours who may need looking after. Thanks for the warning MT.

snow ghost

I think you're right Wolfe.

All jokes aside, I think the salt issue is a major problem, unless the councils have a huge delivery of it early next week, it could be a disaster for travel and the economy.

After reading about the NRA advising local councils to limit gritting on your website, and hearing some of the unofficial chatter about how low the stocks possibly are, this appears to be a major problem.

I noticed around this area how the salt put on the roads changed over time before the thaw, a sure signal they were mixing it with sand to spare it.

By the looks of this potential next week, people need to be prepared, stock up and as you say look out for each other.

mrsdewinter

snow ghost wrote: »

I don’t mean to sound alarmist, but I fear this could signal a major breakdown in social and physical infrastructure of a magnitude probably not seen for at least 1000 years in this country.

As the frosty grim reaper descends upon us next week, his silhouette will cast a terrifying shadow over us for a long-time to come - the country will essentially go into cardiac arrest as communications fail en masse, transport infrastructure crumbles to a halt and social structures tumble.

Best to look on the positive side and prepare for the worst.

Blimey, Snow Ghost, are we talking about effects on a par with the North American Ice Storm of 98? Or something even worse?

Musicman2000

Just reading threw some of the posts over on net weather and they are saying the cold is going to far west, but the gfs still looks great major cold

M.T. Cranium

There are some people on netweather who could downgrade the Daniel Defoe storm to a light breeze. Really, the 00z GFS run has a huge blast of frigid air heading for the U.K. and Ireland on Thursday, and it digs in hard on Friday. I am going back over to see what the model run does beyond that, but the general idea is that it would have to be sub-freezing with the thickness contours as low as shown, plus the -10 C 850 mb covers the entire region and even the -15 C contour is in play. These are pretty robust looking maps, and we know that details can't be nailed down this far in advance, so wouldn't want to speculate on who gets how much snow. Will cross post this on the other thread and stop posting on this thread forthwith.

Ciaran500

snow ghost wrote: »

I don’t mean to sound alarmist, but I fear this could signal a major breakdown in social and physical infrastructure of a magnitude probably not seen for at least 1000 years in this country.

As the frosty grim reaper descends upon us next week, his silhouette will cast a terrifying shadow over us for a long-time to come - the country will essentially go into cardiac arrest as communications fail en masse, transport infrastructure crumbles to a halt and social structures tumble.

Best to look on the positive side and prepare for the worst.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axXvxpzMe_0

The last cold spell brought out the best in people, I don't see any reason to fear this one in that regard.

maquiladora

snow ghost wrote: »

I don’t mean to sound alarmist, but I fear this could signal a major breakdown in social and physical infrastructure of a magnitude probably not seen for at least 1000 years in this country.

As the frosty grim reaper descends upon us next week, his silhouette will cast a terrifying shadow over us for a long-time to come - the country will essentially go into cardiac arrest as communications fail en masse, transport infrastructure crumbles to a halt and social structures tumble.

Best to look on the positive side and prepare for the worst.

The most entertaining and OTT ramp I have ever read. Thanks for that. :pac:

snow ghost

mrsdewinter wrote: »

Blimey, Snow Ghost, are we talking about effects on a par with the North American Ice Storm of 98? Or something even worse?

We'll have to wait and see Mrsdewinter, but don't rule an snow apocalypse out. :eek:

snow ghost

maquiladora wrote: »

The most entertaining and OTT ramp I have ever read. Thanks for that. :pac:

I toned it down maq - didn't want to cause unnecessary panic!

leahyl

Lads I know this is all speculation at the moment and nothing is set in stone but how do the experts feel I'm their own hearts about what's going to happen? This sounds really serious like!! Want to make sure we have everything we need in our house if (when:D?!) we get snowed in!

I'm prob completely jumping the gun with regard to cork though! The aul snow shield may rear it's ugly head again!

H2UMrsRobinson

snow ghost wrote: »

I toned it down maq - didn't want to cause unnecessary panic!

All joking aside I must admit to being just a little bit scared now! I know it's not the end of the world and as yet it hasn't actually happened, but if it did it could lead to a lot of hardship over the next couple of weeks. I work in the retail sector and most businesses rely on Christmas sales to make their year a profitable one. I love snow as much as the next woman, but if the snow could just hold out until Christmas Eve i'd really appreciate it, although that would mean it being pushed out by over a week from the current charts. I'm quietly concerned let's put it that way.

snow ghost

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

All joking aside I must admit to being just a little bit scared now! I know it's not the end of the world and as yet it hasn't actually happened, but if it did it could lead to a lot of hardship over the next couple of weeks. I work in the retail sector and most businesses rely on Christmas sales to make their year a profitable one. I love snow as much as the next woman, but if the snow could just hold out until Christmas Eve i'd really appreciate it, although that would mean it being pushed out by over a week from the current charts. I'm quietly concerned let's put it that way.

I hear what you're saying H2U.

I don't know what section of the retail sector you work in, but maybe it could be an opportunity to turn this potential weather around to your advantage in some manner: supply winter related clothing, do a point of sale promotion in the coming days regarding this possible weather, advertise to stock up before things get worse, print off the severe weather alert by MT on Wolfe's site www.irishweatheronline.com and hand to customers, I'm sure they'd appreciate the added value.

Time to be creative and give a bit of added value to your customers.

H2UMrsRobinson

snow ghost wrote: »

I hear what you're saying H2U.

I don't know what section of the retail sector you work in, but maybe it could be an opportunity to turn this potential weather around to your advantage in some manner: supply winter related clothing, do a point of sale promotion in the coming days regarding this possible weather, advertise to stock up before things get worse, print off the severe weather alert by MT on Wolfe's site www.irishweatheronline.com and hand to customers, I'm sure they'd appreciate the added value.

Time to be creative and give a bit of added value to your customers.

Thanks Snow - will give it some thought - we're actually a mobile phone retailer so don't think we could suddenly start selling hats and gloves...:p I've a supporting role in the office so I may have a word with the sales team and tell them at least what's on the way and to come up with a back up plan.

H2UMrsRobinson

In a fit of panic (ok not a fit, just a small seizure) I've just been to woodies to stock up on fuel. Loads of people in there buying christmas trees and decorations and lights. I felt a bit like the scientist in the movie who knows it's coming and wants to warn everyone, but nobody listens to them. The aisle with the fuel in was deserted by the way - just me and my trolley! I did buy a new doormat though so maybe I'm not panicking just yet

cabot

My SIL is flying from Dublin to Bristol on Friday, she's on her own in Roscommon as her husband is working over here. She's fed up with having cancelled flights when she's supposed to be visiting her husband here so will not be happy if there is heavy snow. Felt a bit silly saying to her husband there may be heavy snow next weekend as he knew nothing about it and always watches the news and weather forecasts on TV!

Wild Bill

Come on folks! No panic - as far as I can see we are rapidly adapting to this weather. Snow a foot deep here for two weeks and after a 48 hour thaw still the estates are ice-bound.

When the first few inches fell on Nov 26th everything stopped. A week later 8 inches hardly broke our stride.

Chins up!

duckysauce

Kenring wrote: »

Ask the onion ring guy, I've done my bit. No one wants discussion, just pokes and digs.

Ken what do you reckon will happen in the next two weeks ? mild or milder , cold or colder ? Would love to know , don't need temps know you don not do them.

Thanks

Wild Bill

Well Ducky, the Onion Ring agrees with the models and says big chill after some rain Thursday.

The Ring is holding fire on the Christmas forecast, but it won't break any records for high temperatures! :rolleyes:

duckysauce

Wild Bill wrote: »

Well Ducky, the Onion Ring agrees with the models and says big chill after some rain Thursday.

The Ring is holding fire on the Christmas forecast, but it won't break any records for high temperatures! :rolleyes:

cheers :P

Kenring

duckysauce wrote: »

Ken what do you reckon will happen in the next two weeks ? mild or milder , cold or colder ? Would love to know , don't need temps know you don not do them.

Thanks

As I said previously, between 10th-17th milder temperatures. The 17th brings a further downward change in solar levels resulting again in colder temperatures that, with the exception of Xmas day, may continue to the end of the month. On 20th the moon is the furthest north and brings another cold lunar influence. My analysis was that the coolest periods would be, for December, 1st-2nd, 6th-10th, 17th-24th, and 26th-31st. And relatively milder periods by this analysis would be 3rd-5th, 11th-16th, and 25th. The coldest periods are around the lunar northern declinations.

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

As I said previously, between 10th-17th milder temperatures. The 17th brings a further downward change in solar levels resulting again in colder temperatures that, with the exception of Xmas day, may continue to the end of the month. On 20th the moon is the furthest north and brings another cold lunar influence. My analysis was that the coolest periods would be, for December, 1st-2nd, 6th-10th, 17th-24th, and 26th-31st. And relatively milder periods by this analysis would be 3rd-5th, 11th-16th, and 25th. The coldest periods are around the lunar northern declinations.

changed your tune a bit haven't you ken? Did the shooting stars spell out a new message last night, or did you just polish your telescope and suddenly discover a new lunar influence? :rolleyes:

Wild Bill

Kenring wrote: »

As I said previously, between 10th-17th milder temperatures. The 17th brings a further downward change in solar levels resulting again in colder temperatures that, with the exception of Xmas day, may continue to the end of the month. On 20th the moon is the furthest north and brings another cold lunar influence. My analysis was that the coolest periods would be, for December, 1st-2nd, 6th-10th, 17th-24th, and 26th-31st. And relatively milder periods by this analysis would be 3rd-5th, 11th-16th, and 25th. The coldest periods are around the lunar northern declinations.

Relative is the word!

According to Met Eireann the average temperature at Dublin Airport (not the coldest place in the country) from 6th - 10th inclusive was -1C. The "normal" average temperature for the period is about +6C. So it was only 7 degrees below normal from the 6th -10th.

I'll stick with the Onion Ring, thanks

ps: the average at Dublin Airport on Dec 1st -2nd was -2C; which is, one must concede, lower than -1C. And that was the moon you say?

pps: on the other hand, the average from the 6th - 8th (in your relatively mild period) was -3C. D'oul Onion Ring tells me that is actually colder than -2C. Where was the moon them three days? We should be told

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

changed your tune a bit haven't you ken? Did the shooting stars spell out a new message last night, or did you just polish your telescope and suddenly discover a new lunar influence? :rolleyes:

Sorry, don't follow you. Same trends as on my website from September and in my almanac. Only three main cold spells, end of Nov, end of Dec/beginning of Jan and mid-March. Jan dry for the first half. February quite a mild month. Overall milder than last winter. So far seems to be working out.

Wild Bill

Kenring wrote: »

end of Dec/beginning of Jan

Hmmmm...so the 17th -24th is the "end of December", as distinct from "mid-December"? Whereas the "end of November" only starts on the 26th?

Very complex this Moonism - frankly, you can't beat the Onion Ring - preferably in fried batter.

Humongous!

Kenring

Wild Bill wrote: »

Relative is the word!

According to Met Eireann the average temperature at Dublin Airport (not the coldest place in the country) from 6th - 10th inclusive was -1C. The "normal" average temperature for the period is about +6C. So it was only 7 degrees below normal from the 6th -10th.

I'll stick with the Onion Ring, thanks

ps: the average at Dublin Airport on Dec 1st -2nd was -2C; which is, one must concede, lower than -1C. And that was the moon you say?

pps: on the other hand, the average from the 6th - 8th (in your relatively mild period) was -3C. D'oul Onion Ring tells me that is actually colder than -2C. Where was the moon them three days? We should be told

The sun determines the temperatures and the moon the timing of weather events. There are microclimates in every valley and street. I don't think temperatures taken in one place over two days show general trends.