Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Kenring

Wild Bill wrote: »

Hmmmm...so the 17th -24th is the "end of December", as distinct from "mid-December"? Whereas the "end of November" only starts on the 26th?

Very complex this Moonism - frankly, you can't beat the Onion Ring - preferably in fried batter.

Humongous!

No, the end of December is like the end of November; the last few days. 17-24 should be colder than now, but not as cold as was the last 10 days of November, and the last days of December going into the first week of January. I repeat, the 3 coldest intervals this winter should be around the northern declinations. The in-between times should see temps easing upwards.

Wild Bill

But the average for the last ten days of November was +1C; two degrees warmer than your relatively mild spell of 6th - 10th December?

Onion Ring says this does not compute. :mad:

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

Sorry, don't follow you. Same trends as on my website from September and in my almanac. Only three main cold spells, end of Nov, end of Dec/beginning of Jan and mid-March. Jan dry for the first half. February quite a mild month. Overall milder than last winter. So far seems to be working out.

i'm most apologetic that you can't follow me, what i'm trying to say is that in my opinion and in the opinion of many others on this forum your forecasts are complete bullsh!t.

P.s. For mods benefit, i'm only insulting mr. Rings forecasts, not him personally, as it is his forecasts which irritate me and many others to this point.

Kenring

Wild Bill wrote: »

But the average for the last ten days of November was +1C; two degrees warmer than your relatively mild spell of 6th - 10th December?

Onion Ring says this does not compute. :mad:

Then add a pinch of salt. I was asked for my opinion for the next two weeks. You can take it or leave it.

opr

Kenring wrote: »

The sun determines the temperatures and the moon the timing of weather events. There are microclimates in every valley and street. I don't think temperatures taken in one place over two days show general trends.

Opr

thetonynator

Kenring wrote: »

Overall milder than last winter. So far seems to be working out.

we are currently two weeks into winter. (the 2 weeks which would normally be mildest) and afaik the imt is currently sub zero - can't check as i am on mobile. Therefore this winter is clearly much much colder than last winter so far, which means you are not on track at all.

Kenring

thetonynator wrote: »

we are currently two weeks into winter. (the 2 weeks which would normally be mildest) and afaik the imt is currently sub zero - can't check as i am on mobile. Therefore this winter is clearly much much colder than last winter so far, which means you are not on track at all.

I really can't say it any other way, the moon method is about timing of weather events, not temperatures. MTC also uses the same lunar model, perhaps he can explain it better. I take winter as being end of November to beginning of March, not just the past two weeks.
And no need to get upset at anyone's opinions. There is room in this world for more than one viewpoint, surely..

Wild Bill

Kenring wrote: »

And no need to get upset at anyone's opinions. There is room in this world for more than one viewpoint, surely..

Yep. I'll agree with that!

snow ghost

Kenring wrote: »

I really can't say it any other way, the moon method is about timing of weather events, not temperatures. MTC also uses the same lunar model, perhaps he can explain it better. I take winter as being end of November to beginning of March, not just the past two weeks.
And no need to get upset at anyone's opinions. There is room in this world for more than one viewpoint, surely..

Ken,

You should ask yourself why you come here and often get slated and in contrast MTC receives huge respect? I know all publicity is meant to be good publicity and all.

I have told you before that I think your forecasts are nothing more than the weather wrapped up in cold reading and eriksonnian langauge patterns used by claryoyants. I know you've dabbled in clarvoyancy as you wrote a book about pawmistry.

Because of that I personally consider your forecasts as bogus and incredible.

Other people can make their own minds up.

jamesoc

I would suggest you refund the people who have purchased those so called weather forecasts of yours Ken , perhaps you should state more clearly to customers that these em forecasts are highly unorthodox and experimental , you might also mention to any potential customers of your dismal record with your predictions, maybe you should stick to reading cats paws in the meantime .
You are not a scientist nor a meteorologist and in my opinion your theories regarding long range forecasting require more research , much much more research , think the game is up for you mate so enjoy Xmas at the beach .

M.T. Cranium

I can see this thread going way off topic, which is frustrating on several levels, let me see if I can explain why (not like I'm sitting around looking for extra things to do today).

Ken and I have some similar ideas about the Moon's effects on the atmosphere. We're also free to incorporate any other theoretical concepts into our long-range forecasting. In my case, the Moon is used mainly for timing events and to some extent the temperature profiling. However, I have a large data set of non-lunar variables that go into the forecasting, which go under the general heading of solar system magnetic field variations.

So with any given forecast, we might come up with different products with some overlapping features. At the moment, I've got a forecast out which seems to be on track, but I am not running a business selling forecasts and so there's not much reason for me to withhold the information (that I already posted in a discussion) that the methodology is developing and that in the past sometimes it goes off track. I don't think of this as a proven or finished system that I have developed. However, the frustration here for me is that right now, my system is working at a rate that I could not have really expected or anticipated earlier in my research -- basically I was more interested in proving cause and effect through statistical significance analyses. Those are interesting to scientists and modellers of climate, but hardly the sort of thing you could sell to clients (small variations over many thousands of cycles in a data base that might only include a few points).

See what I'm getting at here? I believe in the significance of this methodology and it includes but is not limited to the Moon. I couldn't do this kind of forecasting ignoring the lunar variables, but at the same time, I don't think I could do it using only lunar cycles.

Things blend together as we're seeing in real time. The retrograde index is fired by one set of variables not restricted to the Moon. The storminess index is more lunar in origin. If the timing and the concepts are right, then what seems to be a mysterious forecast can be put together, but it's all based on probability -- the global models are based on an effort to take known initial conditions and extending them by equations of motion that are constrained by known features of the general climate. A model would not be allowed to depict a 920 mb low or the 600 dm thickness in the mid-latitudes if the equations were trending that way. So climatology continues to constrain these physical models that are used. However, what constrains them a lot more is that the energy cycles known to both myself and apparently to Ken and half a dozen others that I know about, have life spans of about 5-10 days and this is why no matter what expense is thrown into development, the global models just basically can't handle the challenge of the 10-20 day time frame, and anything as remote as 30-60 days degenerates into white noise. I don't think that can change without modelling in the timing factors that we are using.

It's not a weakness in the technology, it's just a given outcome of probability. If something is 90% probable at 24 hours and you keep recalculating equations, then you are going to be looking at 81%, 73% etc as you keep multiplying these 0.9 probabilities together. So without having a certain idea as to cause and effect, eventually the timing will fade out of focus on the global models, the large scale features will decay beyond recognition, and such systems become useless for forecasting. I'm trying to overcome that problem with a theoretical rather than dynamic approach. My long-range forecasts can be made (and are made sometimes) in windowless rooms with no initial observations -- the conditions in early November contained very few clues of the coming cold pattern, as I think was proven when 90% of experienced long-range forecasters both here and on Net-weather failed to anticipate November turning so cold. Those are generally observant people who make quite a few good monthly calls based on conventional signals that they can and do recognize. But something like sudden large-scale retrogression and height crashing requires a theoretical forecast. Some might attempt to use stratospheric analysis and there might be overlap in that with my methods (there are often competing paradigms in science which actually overlap in ways not immediately obvious to the separate research groups).

Okay, said a lot, don't want to miss the Greenland express. All aboard ... :cool:

jamesoc

Thanks for the explanation MTC but i dont really understand it , what i do understand though is that your reputation is good here , Ring's is non existent .

thetonynator

Excellent explanation m.t. !

dillo2k10

So is everyone on here agreeing that there will be a lot of snow?
If so when do you expect the snow to start falling in Dublin?

According to this website it will start snowing on Thursday
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=wisi

M.T. Cranium

It will start snowing at 1:48 p.m. Thursday in Dublin, 1:49 if you're south of the Liffey. And there will be snow off and on until about the end of February.

By the end of it, you'll need eight reindeer to get around.

Seriously, we have threads on this forum that can give you forecasts and discussions on the short range time scale.

But I'm serious about the 1:48 p.m., give or take two hours.

Kenring

jamesoc wrote: »

Thanks for the explanation MTC but i dont really understand it , what i do understand though is that your reputation is good here , Ring's is non existent .

I'm not really concerned about reputation here, I expect that the jibes will come whatever I say. In the past I have outlined much the same as MTC, in that the moon has a major hand in determining timing of events and the sun the temperatures, yet me saying it is somehow wrong. Maybe it's because the ABs keep beating the Irish at rugby but the Canadians not.:D Or maybe it's a hemisphere loyalty.

This work is far from conclusive and can suggest trends, but there is room for much more study, no one has all the answers, least of all me. I do not just use the moon, I try to incorporate solar cycles and I utilise an astrological model to see where the inner planets are daily positioned, because they have an influence on solar matters.

Yet people still prefer to cite my previous non-serious book about cats as some sort of "clairovoyant" methodology. What a huge laugh. Really, people should try to get past that. It was a joke, and for anyone who continues to quote it the joke is squarely on them. It only brings indignity to the discussion and unwanted distraction to the whole thread. But it is seriously off-topic and I am surprised that the mods don't step in.

Then there is the factor of me trying to make a living from forecasts using a different methodology. Making a living from forecasts is apparently acceptable for meteorologists, but not for me. Strange. Different methodologies are part of being in a free world. So what's the real problem?

A scientist is one who welcomes new ideas and respects all of them as potential for thinking in new directions. This is because the mavericks are the ones who bring reforms, not the mainstreamers. Are there any scientists here, apart from MTC? Believe me, I am a threat to none of you, unless I get things right, and that makes you question your own ideas. Is that what has happened?

TheInquisitor

Ken Can you please outline your winter forecast in detail here so that we can see how you do. Even 50% accuracy for a long range forecast would be impressive. MTC has done so and goes into incredible detail

Kenring

TheInquisitor wrote: »

Ken Can you please outline your winter forecast in detail here so that we can see how you do. Even 50% accuracy for a long range forecast would be impressive. MTC has done so and goes into incredible detail

Well, no, I feel I cannot do so without jeopardising my membership here. I am bound by the ruling of the moderators. Most of the winter forecast is in the new almanac of 2011, but I have been warned that any mention of such content is selfpromotion and for which I will be barred permanently from this forum, and I have agreed, so unless that rule changes I cannot quote anything that is in those pages.
I am happy to abide by that ruling. But I can tell the following, which were non-commercial interview content and can be verified on the net..

Posted 2 October: Interview Limerick radio station:
"October: maybe a bit of snow 29th
November: could be some snow after 23rd
December: mostly subzero. Coldest at start and end.
January: first half mostly dry and frosty, but last 10 days brings the chance of snow.
Feb: mostly dry month, and March: only cold enough for frosts in the second week."

Posted 1 November: for Irish newspaper, my monthly column:
"Cold spells may last a week or two and then change to milder weather. Some of the coolest periods may be in the first and last ten days of November, the week around New Years Eve, most of January, the first half of February and the second week in March. Some of the driest periods may be in the first part of January, the third week in February and the second week of March. December brings sub-zero temperatures, except around 19th and 25th. Xmas Day should be dry, cloudy but fairly mild and unlikely to be white, becoming colder around New year. The last week may bring heavy rain to the far north and around western coastal fringes with some heavy falls in the south, and strong winds and blizzard conditions assisted by extremely cold temperatures".

I have other interviews, but they tell the same story. I expect that there will be much searching to find fault in what I have said, down to punctuation and syntax, because thus far that is how this material has been received. Please don't ask me again, as it threatens to entrap me.

TheInquisitor

I believed that the reason moderators were unhappy with you was because everytime anyone asked you a detailed question on your forecast, instead of actually giving a detaield reply you just told them to look at your website? Moderators please tell me if im wrong here.

Kenring

TheInquisitor wrote: »

I believed that the reason moderators were unhappy with you was because everytime anyone asked you a detailed question on your forecast, instead of actually giving a detaield reply you just told them to look at your website? Moderators please tell me if im wrong here.

If a genuine question is asked I have always tried to give a detailed reply. I used to sign off with my URL, thinking nothing of it. I also referred readers to articles I had written, and were on the website, which gave them the chance of reading them or no, rather than wading though it all here. It just seemed to be more efficient. After a stern warning I have changed the way I write these pieces, and try not to answer as fully, in case I incur the annoyance of the mods, who have their own ideas about the forum and one must respect that. It is like coming into another person's house. But it seems now I am damned if I do and damned if I don't.

Sponge Bob

Ken,

In what week of what month of 2011 will the last snow fall and settke at 50m ASL or lower in Ireland
In what week of what month of 2011 will the last snow MELT at 50m ASL or lower in Ireland

Ta.

Kenring

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Ken,

In what week of what month of 2011 will the last snow fall and settke at 50m ASL or lower in Ireland
In what week of what month of 2011 will the last snow MELT at 50m ASL or lower in Ireland

Ta.

I'm sorry, I don't see how anyone can say will. It is all opinion.
I have no data vs altitudes of terrain, again sorry. My work is about potentials over whole counties. Perhaps MTC can answer those.

Sponge Bob

Kenring wrote: »

I'm sorry, I don't see how anyone can say will. It is all opinion.

You built a career on opinion, this coyness counts as a first fence refusal dude

Rebelbrowser

Lads, the antipathy toward Ken Ring on here is huge. I've no idea if he's any good or not (his detailed forecast for this winter is ok but the problem is that he overall described this as a mild winter overall which seems to contradict his own forecast) but I think some of the flack he gets here seems a tad overdone.

Dotsie~tmp

Kenring wrote: »

I'm sorry, I don't see how anyone can say will. It is all opinion.
I have no data vs altitudes of terrain, again sorry. My work is about potentials over whole counties. Perhaps MTC can answer those.

Please find another forum. Im tired of hearing about you.

gluckantanks

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Lads, the antipathy toward Ken Ring on here is huge. I've no idea if he's any good or not (his detailed forecast for this winter is ok but the problem is that he overall described this as a mild winter overall which seems to contradict his own forecast) but I think some of the flack he gets here seems a tad overdone.

Spot on Rebelbrowser. I'm following this thread since it began. There seems to be more posts trying to disprove Ring than there is about the Winter outlook. The man is as entitled to his opinion as everyone else. It's your own choice if you want to take what he says on board or not.

gluckantanks;)

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

But I'm serious about the 1:48 p.m., give or take two hours.

15:35 in Athlone.
OH well! only 1 hour 25 out, it snowed @ 14:10 for a few minutes.

TheMilkyPirate

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Lads, the antipathy toward Ken Ring on here is huge. I've no idea if he's any good or not (his detailed forecast for this winter is ok but the problem is that he overall described this as a mild winter overall which seems to contradict his own forecast) but I think some of the flack he gets here seems a tad overdone.

Exactly, Annoying tedious and frankly quite boring. This thread is a winter outlook thread and for the last i don't know how many pages it's just been a few people constantly knocking someone trying something different. Kens outlook looks ok to me fairly good so far actually. If he charges for his service and you think he shouldn't then fine there's a lot of people like that in the world but he's a weather enthusiast like the rest of us so maybe if all this childish bickering stops he might be interested in giving some of his input to discussions on here wether some people like his opinion or not it's nice to have as many angles as possible.

Trogdor

Kenring wrote: »

Well, no, I feel I cannot do so without jeopardising my membership here. I am bound by the ruling of the moderators. Most of the winter forecast is in the new almanac of 2011, but I have been warned that any mention of such content is selfpromotion and for which I will be barred permanently from this forum, and I have agreed, so unless that rule changes I cannot quote anything that is in those pages.

You may post any forecast you wish as long as you're not openly advertising your website:)

Villain

baraca wrote: »

Exactly, Annoying tedious and frankly quite boring. This thread is a winter outlook thread and for the last i don't know how many pages it's just been a few people constantly knocking someone trying something different. Kens outlook looks ok to me fairly good so far actually. If he charges for his service and you think he shouldn't then fine there's a lot of people like that in the world but he's a weather enthusiast like the rest of us so maybe if all this childish bickering stops he might be interested in giving some of his input to discussions on here wether some people like his opinion or not it's nice to have as many angles as possible.

I can understand what you say about this thread but we tried to discuss this in a reasonable manner before and the thread got locked because Ken just wanted to promote his service which to be honest it nothing short of useless.

I heard Ken on the radio and had people who know I'm into the weather asking me if the "Fella from New Zealand" was really able to predict so far in advance.

So instead of saying yes or no without giving him a chance I purchased his forecast for the year and basically its been useless and I mean useless every major weather event has not been forecast.

When I questioned him he came up with every excuse under the sun and I mean EVERY excuse, have a look at the old thread if you don't believe me. After running out of excuses he said he only offered an opinion and it may be right or wrong. When questioned about how he stated Live on national Radio that he could forecast down to the hour years in advance he said he said it in "Jest"!

I have no problem with anyone offering an opinion in fact I welcome it but I do have a problem with people selling a service that is usless and when questioned on it just say its an opinion. He may be able to offer an opinion that people can read here for free but I couldn't warn people strongly enough about "Paying" for this opinion that has been proven to fail time and time again. 10c to 14c forecast for this weekend and next week in Carlow