Ken Ring

[nacho libre]

on his site he predicts some significant falls about the second week in Nov, then Nov 16,

now look at this GFS chart(hopefully it won't have changed again by tomorrow)

[nilhg]

There is an interesting article about him and his methods in this weeks Farmers Journal, worth a look if you can pick it up in your local shop. It'll be up on their website during the week, I'll post a link then.

[Deep Easterly]

Originally Posted by nacho libre

on his site he predicts some significant falls about the second week in Nov, then Nov 16,

now look at this GFS chart(hopefully it won't have changed again by tomorrow)

I haven't a clue who Ken Ring is , but going by that chart posted, I would say weak showery troughs with a risk of hail in the west and north. Is it snow Mr Ring speaks of? If so, then I hope he is right...

[redsunset]

Originally Posted by Deep Easterly

I haven't a clue who Ken Ring is , but going by that chart posted, I would say weak showery troughs with a risk of hail in the west and north. Is it snow Mr Ring speaks of? If so, then I hope he is right...

have you been living under a rock,the new zealand guy ,he does be on today fm too.great record for predicting precise weather using moon and sun

[Deep Easterly]

Originally Posted by redsunset

have you been living under a rock,the new zealand guy ,he does be on today fm too.great record for predicting precise weather using moon and sun

Interesting...

[redsunset]

https://www.predictweather.co.nz/ass...ces.php?id=159

[Joe Public]

The meteireann people just don't want to know about Ken Ring but I think it's better not to shut out any sources of weather prediction unless there is 100% proof they are of no relevance. Everyone knows that predicting the weather is not an exact science and that makes it all the more exciting.

[nilhg]

Article from this weeks Farmers Journal, make of it what you will

http://www.farmersjournal.ie/2009/10...ml?mn=7&sm=7-1

[nacho libre]

surely if this chart is realised, the high ground in Northern Ireland will at least see some snow??

The snow fever has taken hold again only see what i want to see

[darkman2]

Not a hope










Ignoring the fact these charts are out in cuckoo land anyway - upper level temeratures really have to be below -6 or -7 for snow from a polar maritime source at this time of year which is highly unlikely. The second chart shows DAM thicknesses which also have to be sub 528 DAM.

The best chance of a few flakes this time of year is an Atlantic front coming up against sub -5 850 hpa. Even if this did happen sleet or snow would not last very long and would primarily be on high ground.

It really is too early to be looking for snow potential but that is not to say it cannot happen. I would'nt really be aware of it till the second half of November onward.

[redsunset]

correct DM2 ,people the magic 528 dam line(remember that)is a minimum must have situation.like DM2 says a -5 just does not cut it for our country in that set up. In europe a dam of 546 is all thats needed.

[Deep Easterly]

Snow can still happen at this time of year though, this time last year was a perfect example:







It did snow in places on the 28th/29th of October last year despite uppers of less than -5, although it was confined to higher elevations in the east (above 80m asl) by the time they did warm as that depression in the above chart bore down upon us. I agree though that uppers need to be below -6c for us in lowland Ireland to see some of the white stuff.

[redsunset]

remember this








FAQ on thickness and dam http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/152

[nacho libre]

Originally Posted by Deep Easterly

Snow can still happen at this time of year though, this time last year was a perfect example:







It did snow in places on the 28th/29th of October last year despite uppers of less than -5, although it was confined to higher elevations in the east (above 80m asl) by the time they did warm as that depression in the above chart bore down upon us. I agree though that uppers need to be below -6c for us in lowland Ireland to see some of the white stuff.

What about dewpoints though? couldn't you have an 850mb temps below -6C and the dewpoint could still be too high for snowfall?

with this in mind seeing as winter will be upon us shortly, perhaps it would be a good idea if there was a sticky thread on this board outlining all the conditions needed for snow?

[Deep Easterly]

Originally Posted by nacho libre

couldn't you have an 850mb temps below -6C and the dewpoint could still be too high for snowfall?

Yes you could, but off the top of my head I would say that such a set up would bring very unstable conditions which in itself could produce snow or hail.

A dew point of below 0c is the general rule of thumb for favorable snow conditions, but it can still rain with a negative Dp, while it can still snow with a positive one, although this type of snow tends to be wet and slushy. I am open the contradiction though.

Just depends on what the conditions are at the time. So keep watching those Dp's Mr Nacho.