Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

inabina

Weathercheck wrote: »

Woah not a fan of this 18z with regards to Tuesday/Wednesday

Hope its WRONG.

Shunts the high to the NW well further SE, giving less precip to the east

gerry murphys charts did show that high out to the west sitting very pretty and far too much in command for my liking

Villain

Rougies wrote: »

Here we go..... down the slippery slope (of the wrong kind) again

Don't worry about the Pub run it very often throws a wobble but corrects itself on the 00z, having said that expect nothing and anything is a bonus

dbyrne

garytuohy wrote: »

well ODDS are northside and EVENS are southside

unfortunetly its not that easy as the phoenix park is on the southside.... go figure, keep the best part of the northside for the southsiders.

any snow in d6 or 6w yet

ninebeanrows

I am not even going to look at the rest of the run.

Come back in the morning and hope it was just a bad nightmare.

Macros changes at as little at T48

At T90 the ridge is around 300 miles further east.:eek:

WolfeIRE

Weathercheck wrote: »

Woah not a fan of this 18z with regards to Tuesday/Wednesday

Hope its WRONG.

Shunts the high to the NW well further SE, giving less precip to the east

Latest precip charts for Monday night/Tue morn ( Ulster, Connaught, West/North Munster and North Leinster in firing line for most of precip).
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100103/18/30/ukprec.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100103/18/36/ukprec.png
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs/18_33_precipratec.png
http://cache.netweather.tv/fax/PPVG89.png
http://cache.netweather.tv/fax/PPVI89.png

A similar front looks like affecting the west coast on Thursday, as indicated in previous runs over the weekend.
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs/18_117_precipratec.png

The southern front mentioned earlier today is still on course to sweep NW across Ireland on Sunday.
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs/18_192_precipratec.png

By the way, before there is a mass piddling of pants session by people along the east coast - there will be plenty of showery activity for you to look forward to from Tuesday onwards (although the latest run does not present much in the way of precip for the east and S from the Monday night front). Do not think that earlier predictions of significant accumulations along east coast by late midweek will occur

PS...the latest GFS run is most likely void of any human input as we have seen on previous Sundays so don't worry too much. Tomorrow morn's run will be the one to watch

snow ghost

Many thanks for those links damo9090 & quinthebin... will check them out.

This forum is great as people around the country can post their current weather conditions... I am always amazed that when it's lashing with rain here in virtually the whole of Mayo Met Eireann gives weather reports that it is sunny here... maybe the belmullet station is sunny even though nowhere else is the county is??? Or maybe they should have a more sophisticated system or read boards.ie

candy19

Just travelled from Donegal to Dublin, Landed there about three hours ago...I have to say that road conditions were not near as bad as rte news were saying!

Myself and my friend were expecting a winter wonderland:mad:

I only fell once on ice since I landed...Grrrrr!

Does anyone have any predictions for the east coast between now and Tuesday night, when I've to travel home again!

mad DIY

dbyrne wrote: »

unfortunetly its not that easy as the phoenix park is on the southside.... go figure, keep the best part of the northside for the southsiders.

any snow in d6 or 6w yet

No. clear sky.

Snowaddict

I really would not worry about the 18Z GFS Operational Run..

If, on the other hand, there were to be a shift overnigtht from the entire set of other NWP Guidance available to us then that would be a cause for concern. However, the 06Z and 18Z GFS runs can be notoriously fickle.

That's not discounting the evolution entirely but it would be very unusual for UKMO etc to have it wrong at T+48 - T+72.

SA

ninebeanrows

Its actually like watching a car crash.

I really was never expecting to see the hugest of downgrades in one run.

I know i shouldn't panic over one 18z GFS but man the changes are just huge.

twincamman

grand weather ,seasonal,anything is better than the rain

JanuarySnowstor

If you were watching closely enough wc you would have spotted all models make more of this high coming close to a sinker
The ukmo isn't far from a sinker either
Could we be seeing the end of the coldest spell in Irish weather for years (without even a decent snowfall for most)

ninebeanrows

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

If you were watching closely enough wc you would have spotted all models make more of this high coming close to a sinker
The ukmo isn't far from a sinker either
Could we be seeing the end of the coldest spell in Irish weather for years (without even a decent snowfall for most)

Whatever happens its going to stay extremely cold for the forseable future, even in the 18z.

What it does is throw High pressure much closer killing our snow potential.

darkman2

Apart from the amount of snow the ECM throws on to the East Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday the 18z GFS is actually very similar.

Snowaddict

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

If you were watching closely enough wc you would have spotted all models make more of this high coming close to a sinker
The ukmo isn't far from a sinker either
Could we be seeing the end of the coldest spell in Irish weather for years (without even a decent snowfall for most)

Sorry, what's that's supposed to mean JS? The HP over Greenland will sink, thats inevitable. However, it is the pattern of the Jet Stream that allows a Surface High to build and back westwards over Scandinavia.

Interestingly, the UKMO latest FAX Chart at T+120 has a High over Scandinavia with Easterly winds across the country.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=120&carte=2000

There are no guarantees in this setup so comments such as the above are uncalled for. Whilst the renewed easterly may not develop, it's certainly not what the majority of NWP Guidance has been showing to date.

Could you please show me where today's UKMO 12Z is close to a sinker??

Again, I'm not discounting the fact that the Easterly flow may not continue/re-develop, but that's not what is being shown at the moment, as shown on the latest FAX chart.

SA

WolfeIRE

Don't worry everyone in Dublin. Metcheck has you down for 0.4mm of SNOW on Friday night

Our probs are a little more serious on the west coast with metcheck predicting air pressure of just 2mb on Wed morn. Our friend in East Clare is going to have a real headache then:pac:

Bog Butter

What are you saying guys? Are we in the east not now going to see snow this week?

WolfeIRE

malman wrote: »

What are you saying guys? Are we in the east not now going to see snow this week?

Yes there will. Met Eireann has said there will as have the experienced Metheads here. Just some questions over timeline and amounts.

ninebeanrows

malman wrote: »

What are you saying guys? Are we in the east not now going to see snow this week?

Im going for a stiff drink and coming back tomorrow,

I can take anymore:D:D

Bog Butter

Ok grand thanks

PistolPete78

are we more likely to see snowfall in the mid-west/west?

I was in the dublin mts today enjoying the snow. A serious dump up there. good fun:D

Snowaddict

Weathercheck wrote: »

Im going for a stiff drink and coming back tomorrow,

I can take anymore:D:D

I really don't blame you

In all seriousness though, yes there are changes on this run, but it's one run & must be viewed in that context. Equally, it may be on to something. We should await the Ensemble Mean, along with the overnight runs.

Again, forecasting snow is very difficult. Exact amounts & distribution are very hard to predict, even at T+24.

Interestingly, the latest HIRLAM Hi-Res Model shows the front for tomorrow surviving quite well as it progresses down across the country - certainly one to watch.

SA

Bog Butter

Weathercheck wrote: »

Im going for a stiff drink and coming back tomorrow,

I can take anymore:D:D

You're putting ideas in my head. I think I will have a hot one.

darkman2

malman wrote: »

What are you saying guys? Are we in the east not now going to see snow this week?

Most places will see snow, yes. It's just very uncertain exactly where and when atm as the computer models diverge on this exact issue. The most likely places remain the most likely places from earlier though.

DOCARCH

darkman2 wrote: »

The most likely places remain the most likely places from earlier though.

Have you had a quick one too?

Redsunset

Oh god im going to go mad,
Where's me snow gone??


Latest hi res ukmo still holding form

Redsunset

And tues midday see parts of north and north west gettin a nice blast

Wibbler

redsunset wrote: »

Oh god im going to go mad,
Where's me snow gone??


Latest hi res ukmo still holding form

Hmm, rain for me it seems.

200motels

I have a feeling that we here in Waterford City the place where it rarely snows will get some of that white stuff this week, I'm certain of that.

ninebeanrows

UKM Meso develops a polar low type feature over Northwest Scotland Tuesday Morning pushing down the north and west of Ireland. :rolleyes: