Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

Su Campu

Note Area B to the north, locally moderate snow showers, most probably near the trough, which is slowly making its way towards Northern Ireland

Snowaddict

paulhac wrote: »

Excellent update Mark , as always. I know I've been on about this before but considering the amount of convection that may take place over the Irish Sea in the comming days do you think thunder is a possibility on occasions?

Thanks for that Paulhac

It's very hard to forecast this far ahead but I do think that the possibility is there of the famous thundersnow. Now, the risk is certainly lower than 50% of the moment, but with 850mb of at times, -10 moving southwestwards over the Irish Sea, there is the risk of deep convective developments & assoicated thunder, being heavily dependant upon the intensity and sea track of the showers.

Sorry I can't offer any more on this at the moment but with the complex evolution, it's just uncertain as to what exactly will develop, but you are right in that the risk is certainly present, especially from Tuesday through to late on Wednesday or into early Thursday.

SA

Gonzo

more light snow drizzle/hail showers here. very very light tho.

Su Campu

Snowaddict wrote: »

Thanks for that Paulhac

It's very hard to forecast this far ahead but I do think that the possibility is there of the famous thundersnow. Now, the risk is certainly lower than 50% of the moment, but with 850mb of at times, -10 moving southwestwards over the Irish Sea, there is the risk of deep convective developments & assoicated thunder, being heavily dependant upon the intensity and sea track of the showers.

Sorry I can't offer any more on this at the moment but with the complex evolution, it's just uncertain as to what exactly will develop, but you are right in that the risk is certainly present, especially from Tuesday through to late on Wednesday or into early Thursday.

SA

I would agree, but not before Wednesday. The GFS forecast soundings give several hundred kJs of CAPE for Valley as the winds veer northeasterly Tuesday night,/Wednesday morning. Dublin shows less CAPE, but it's not representative of what would happen over the Irish Sea. Taking a 10°C sea-surface temperature, convection to as high as 400hPa is possible, which would sustain the updraughts required for electrification, though with poor deep layer sheer, these storms should not become too organised, so don't be expecting fireworks!

compsys

*Sigh*

I really feel that all this talk about snow is just wishful thinking at this stage. Not a flake to be seen in the coming week, according to the BBC. It's so annoying as you can bet that if this were summer and there was precipitation falling around parts of the British isles, Dublin and the rest of the country would get every single drop. But when it's snow...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/31

Rougies

compsys wrote: »

*Sigh*

I really feel that all this talk about snow is just wishful thinking at this stage. Not a flake to be seen in the coming week, according to the BBC. It's so annoying as you can bet that if this were summer and there was precipitation falling around parts of the British isles, Dublin and the rest of the country would get every single drop. But when it's snow...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/31

I'd strongly urge you to disregard the BBC forecasts for Ireland and concentrate on Met Eireann and this forum.
Read at least a couple of pages back if you want to feel less pesimistic

jenzz

compsys wrote: »

*Sigh*

I really feel that all this talk about snow is just wishful thinking at this stage. Not a flake to be seen in the coming week, according to the BBC. It's so annoying as you can bet that if this were summer and there was precipitation falling around parts of the British isles, Dublin and the rest of the country would get every single drop. But when it's snow...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/31

Does Tomasz Schafernaker not work for the BBC - Fairly impressive forcast he gave earlier with white all over the east

pistolpetes11

compsys wrote: »

*Sigh*

I really feel that all this talk about snow is just wishful thinking at this stage. Not a flake to be seen in the coming week, according to the BBC. It's so annoying as you can bet that if this were summer and there was precipitation falling around parts of the British isles, Dublin and the rest of the country would get every single drop. But when it's snow...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/31

You live in ireland not The UK, met.ie for our forecasts or here

jenzz

ah well - imm behind WC

Elmer Blooker

Rougies wrote: »

I'd strongly urge you to disregard the BBC forecasts for Ireland and concentrate on Met Eireann and this forum.
Read at least a couple of pages back if you want to feel less pesimistic

You beat me to it! That BBC forecast is a heap of s****
so next Friday the max in Dublin will be 4c and the min will be 4c as well:D

thomasj

Small snow shower in tara street

ninebeanrows

I think there could well be some hail/snow showers in the Greater Dublin region in the next couple of hours the showers in the Irish sea steadily growing up.

pushing ESE

ffarrell

compsys wrote: »

*Sigh*

I really feel that all this talk about snow is just wishful thinking at this stage. Not a flake to be seen in the coming week, according to the BBC. It's so annoying as you can bet that if this were summer and there was precipitation falling around parts of the British isles, Dublin and the rest of the country would get every single drop. But when it's snow...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/31

Where are the British Isles??? I have never heard of them. There is Ireland and Britain end of story. I live in Ireland, am Irish and am certainly not BRITISH. The British probably wish they owned Ireland as well but sorry...you have anough problems on your own little island.

compsys

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

You live in ireland not The UK, met.ie for our forecasts or here

Well I understand that but in my experience the British forecasting is more accurate than Met Eireann's, even for Ireland. Besides, don't the Brits have better equipment? I remember last February, during the last snow spell for the East, the BBC's forecast for when and where the snow was gonna fall was far more accurate than Met Eireann's. That's why I always keep an eye on the BBC forecast as well as Met Eireann's.

DOCARCH

ffarrell wrote: »

Where are the British Isles??? I have never heard of them. There is Ireland and Britain end of story. I live in Ireland, am Irish and am certainly not BRITISH. The British probably wish they owned Ireland as well but sorry...you have anough problems on your own little island.

Not this argumnet again - get over it! The British Isles was an accepted geographical term for these islands - not a political term. Do you think the Irish Sea should be split and called the British and Irish Sea?

LEIN

compsys wrote: »

Well I understand that but in my experience the British forecasting is more accurate than Met Eireann's, even for Ireland. Besides, don't the Brits have better equipment? I remember last February, during the last snow spell for the East, the BBC's forecast for when and where the snow was gonna fall was far more accurate than Met Eireann's. That's why I always keep an eye on the BBC forecast as well as Met Eireann's.

Snow is hard to predict in Ireland with all the factors that need to be in place. The UK met had a better guess than our own met.

ffarrell

I don't agree. I cannot stand Gerry Murphy but the rest of the forecasters are pretty much on the ball. How many Brits look at or would look Met Eireann for their weather forecasts yet there you are like a 'subject' of ol Dirty Drawers with your mouth full of saliva looking at their weather forecast. Why not move there????:(

Our man in Havana

ffarrell wrote: »

Where are the British Isles??? I have never heard of them. There is Ireland and Britain end of story. I live in Ireland, am Irish and am certainly not BRITISH. The British probably wish they owned Ireland as well but sorry...you have anough problems on your own little island.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_isles

ffarrell

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not this argumnet again - get over it! Do you think the Irish Sea should be split and called the British and Irish Sea?

Why not the Irish Isles then??? Or simply the Islands of Britain and Ireland..show a bit of honour and respect for your own boundaries. Nothing too patriotic or xenaphobic about that now just pure geography.:)

Rougies

ffarrell wrote: »

Where are the British Isles??? I have never heard of them. There is Ireland and Britain end of story. I live in Ireland, am Irish and am certainly not BRITISH. The British probably wish they owned Ireland as well but sorry...you have anough problems on your own little island.

Geographically we are a part of the British Isles.
Politically we are not a part of Britain/Great Britain.

I can't understand why so many people get so worked up when we're associated with the British Isles...it's only a geographical region, get over it!

EDIT: too late, snap DOCARCH!

compsys

ffarrell wrote: »

I don't agree. I cannot stand Gerry Murphy but the rest of the forecasters are pretty much on the ball. How many Brits look at or would look Met Eireann for their weather forecasts yet there you are like a 'subject' of ol Dirty Drawers with your mouth full of saliva looking at their weather forecast. Why not move there????:(

This is a weather forum, not a political forum. If you have some inferiority complex about the relationship between Britain and Ireland then I suggest you go rant about it somewhere else.

jenzz

Croppy ...... Ill have a bit of Schfernaker as my 1000th post trophy.

Just send him fully intact in my direction & ill take good care of him lol:D:D:D PROMISE !

DOCARCH

ffarrell wrote: »

Why not the Irish Isles then??? Or simply the Islands of Britain and Ireland..show a bit of honour and respect for your own boundaries. Nothing too patriotic or xenaphobic about that now just pure geography.:)

But what would be your suggestion for renaming the Irish Sea which laps the shores of Scotland, Wales and England?

ffarrell

Bond-007 wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_isles

Wikipedia needs updating my good man... if you wish to stand under a British umbrella that is your problem... We are in the 21st century now...

ninebeanrows

That's it folks no more discussion over British Isles crap.

We are here to discuss the Cold Spell and yes disparities between forecasts but i will not let anything political come into it.

Su Campu

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think there could well be some hail/snow showers in the Greater Dublin region in the next couple of hours the showers in the Irish sea steadily growing up.

pushing ESE

I doubt if we'll see any more than we're seeing at the moment, ie. some very light snow grains showers. Cloud bases are at about 5000ft, tops around 8-9000ft. The snow grains would suggest that there are some decent low-level updraughts, but there is too much of a mid-level cap for anything further. Any precipitation is evaporating on its 5000ft long drop to the surface, with just the odd snow grain/pellet surviving.

Villain

Politics forum is is -> but an FYI:

Dáil Éireann - Volume 606 - 28 September, 2005. In his response, the Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs stated that "The British Isles is not an officially recognised term in any legal or inter-governmental sense. It is without any official status. The Government, including the Department of Foreign Affairs, does not use this term. Our officials in the Embassy of Ireland, London, continue to monitor the media in Britain for any abuse of the official terms as set out in the Constitution of Ireland and in legislation. These include the name of the State, the President, Taoiseach and others."

inabina

ffarrell wrote: »

I don't agree. I cannot stand Gerry Murphy but the rest of the forecasters are pretty much on the ball. How many Brits look at or would look Met Eireann for their weather forecasts yet there you are like a 'subject' of ol Dirty Drawers with your mouth full of saliva looking at their weather forecast. Why not move there????:(

gerry murphy is way more on the ball than jean byrne.:P

pistolpetes11

compsys wrote: »

Well I understand that but in my experience the British forecasting is more accurate than Met Eireann's, even for Ireland. Besides, don't the Brits have better equipment? I remember last February, during the last snow spell for the East, the BBC's forecast for when and where the snow was gonna fall was far more accurate than Met Eireann's. That's why I always keep an eye on the BBC forecast as well as Met Eireann's.

IMO the best place for a forecast and varying opinions on that forecast is here.

A lot of the lads here are bang on with there forecasts

SpitfireIV

ffarrell wrote: »

Where are the British Isles??? I have never heard of them. There is Ireland and Britain end of story. I live in Ireland, am Irish and am certainly not BRITISH. The British probably wish they owned Ireland as well but sorry...you have anough problems on your own little island.

I bet if we had of stayed part of the UK we would have got some decent snow!! :rolleyes:


Joking!!!!


Anyway, hard frost here, -3.1c at the moment and a DP of -4.4c