Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

Redsunset

Wibbler wrote: »

Hmm, rain for me it seems.

Ah no these will change again and again.just trying to get a rough idea of where it places best hopes

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote: »

UKM Meso develops a polar low type feature over Northwest Scotland Tuesday Morning pushing down the north and west of Ireland. :rolleyes:

I would not look at the 48hrs chart if I were you. More snow in the midlands then the East.

Deep Easterly

-2.5c in Galway City at the mo. Still a bit of breeze making it feel raw as hell. Love it though.

Wibbler

Weathercheck wrote: »

UKM Meso develops a polar low type feature over Northwest Scotland Tuesday Morning pushing down the north and west of Ireland.

would that suck up warmer air from the south on its eastern flank?

Redsunset

ya mean this chart?:D:D

snow ghost

What is a polar low???

Redzer7

Any snow for Dublin tonight? .

Bog Butter

Ok Weathercheck. Seen as this drink was inspired by you I think it is only fitting and proper that I post a snap of it here.

Indeed I would like to take this oppertunity to extend my gratitude to you fine folks here on the weather forum of boards.ie. Us metorologyically challenged ones do find it handy and informitive.

Thank you ever so much for your patience.

Bottoms up.:)

WolfeIRE

Weathercheck wrote: »

UKM Meso develops a polar low type feature over Northwest Scotland Tuesday Morning pushing down the north and west of Ireland. :rolleyes:

i hope this is not the result of a 'stiff drink'?

on that matter of lows, is this a low system of sorts. certainly plenty of precip involved. It's for Thursday

darkman2

Redzer7 wrote: »

Any snow for Dublin tonight? .

No, Monday is the next chance for Dubs.

Redsunset

Polar low - the arctic hurricane
For centuries mariners of the Nordic Seas have told tales of unexpected encounters with fierce storms that appeared out of nowhere to wreak havoc on the seas. With the onset of satellite imagery meteorologists identified them as shallow and short-lived low pressure centres forming over polar seas, naming them polar lows.

Polar lows are defined as small but intense maritime meso-scale cyclones that form in cold polar or arctic air advected over relatively warmer water. Polar lows are much smaller and more transient than a regular mid-latitude depression. Their scale varies between 100 to 500 km and typically they last for anything between 12 to 36 hours.

However, polar lows show a very characteristic pattern and life cycle during which they produce severe weather, heavy precipitation - usually falling as snow, and strong surface winds. Triggered by convection they develop over water, typically westward of an 'old' occluded regular low. In their developing phase they can be detected from satellite imagery as a typical comma cloud feature.

In mature stage the most prominent hallmark of a polar low are the spiral cloud bands often forming a clear eye at the the centre of the cloud vortex suggesting an analogy with tropical cyclones. This is why such systems are also known as Arctic hurricanes. Mean wind speed varies around 15 m/s which is 'only' Bft 7 or 'near gale'. However, frequently strong wind gusts easily reach Bft 10 and thunderstorms and even waterspouts are possible. Heaviest snow showers and strongest winds are located close to the centre, winds within the 'eye' are calm. Temperatures are dropping sharply with the passage of the storm centre causing an extremely high risk of icing over sea.

Like their tropical cousins Polar lows tend to decay rapidly with landfall, mostly due to the lack of warm moisture supply from the relatively warm sea. Some polar lows, however, can produce blizzard conditions over land. Such polar lows often have well-defined fronts rather suggesting similarities to the usual mid-latitude cyclones. Today we know that polar lows are a quite frequent feature of relatively warm ice-free waters within polar regions. For example the Nordic Seas, The Labrador Sea, the Gulf of Alaska and the Sea of Japan, but they are also common over polar waters of the Southern Hemisphere.

In the Northern Hemisphere polar lows are most common during winter, followed by the autumns and spring seasons, while there is no seasonal variability in the Southern Hemisphere

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

-2.5c in Galway City at the mo. Still a bit of breeze making it feel raw as hell. Love it though.

good man paddy1:)

do you think we'll see snow, or will we instead see frogs falling from the sky tomorrow evening onwards?
what's your hunch??

dbyrne

where has the snow for dublin gone?? checked bbc and sky and they have nothing for dublin over the next few days, but meteo still has snow for tuesday and wednesday

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/world_weather/city_weather.html?cityID=353X1&tx_mgcityweatherstatic_pi1[cityIDuse]=353X1

darkman2

Just a point about Monday. The warm front will come down ahead of the cold front during tomorrow evening. A bit of snow is likely.




Then more snow later in the night. At least a dusting for many.:)

darkman2

dbyrne wrote: »

where has the snow for dublin gone?? checked bbc and sky and they have nothing for dublin over the next few days, but meteo still has snow for tuesday and wednesday

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/world_weather/city_weather.html?cityID=353X1&tx_mgcityweatherstatic_pi1[cityIDuse]=353X1

There will be snow in Dublin on Tuesday and Wednesday. There could be a good amount aswell.

DOCARCH

Redzer7 wrote: »

Any snow for Dublin tonight? .

Chance of light snow showers or flurries overnight.

Note that Dublin Airport is reporting light snow showers at 2300.

lisao80

am i still wastin my time hoping for snow down here in west cork??

je55ie

Will it snow in Kerry over the next couple of days?Got a few flakes today but thats all

thanks

Redzer7

Hope theirs a good bit of snow in Dublin within the next few days .
Will be watching this thread very closely over the next few days.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

good man paddy1:)

do you think we'll see snow, or will we instead see frogs falling from the sky tomorrow evening onwards?
what's your hunch??

My hunch? I'd go with the frogs Nacho. Thrice bitten, eternally shy.

Snowaddict

Worth noting that the 18Z GFS Operational was a 850mb Temperature Outlier for Eastern Ireland almost from the very start:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=119&y=32

Again, that's not saying that it's technically wrong, just a point of interest given it's large differences to GFS 12Z Operational.

SA

Figuramatyi

Hallejuhah fellas

darkman2

Light snow here now near Malahide.

WolfeIRE

Redzer7 wrote: »

Any snow for Dublin tonight? .

ME thinks so up to 1am at least. Looks like that is heading Meath/Kildare direction too.

Su Campu

Dublin 24hr TAF gives a small chance of light snow showers from midnight to 3am tonight. No mention of snow up to midnight tomorrow.

TAF EIDW 032300Z 0400/0424 VRB03KT 9999 SCT022 PROB30 0400/0403 2000 -SHSN BKN008 PROB30 0402/04010 0400 FZFG SCT001 BECMG 0407/0410 32008KT=

Big lump of brown clouds coming toward Lucan. Doubt Ill see any snow tonight though.

Mobhi1

DOCARCH wrote: »

Chance of light snow showers or flurries overnight.

Note that Dublin Airport is reporting light snow showers at 2300.

Nothing here just 5km south of the airport yet!

nacho libre

i see a restless night for some as they await tomorrow's model outputs;)

i definitely think this is part of the fun because if we had winters similar to those of the state of montana and the north of norway do, where would be the fun in that long term?

Redzer7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I've underlined in the boards.ie forecast thread my concern that, however people may find today and Monday, the weather will become truly severe across much of the country on Tuesday and continue that way for the rest of the week, as the cold deepens and a stronger more organized northeast flow develops. In fact, I would advise people who need to stock up or prepare to get it done Monday if possible, because more isolated areas and higher rural areas could find it really difficult to get around once a bit more snow falls and temperatures fall several more degrees (especially daytime).

These things sometimes get downgraded, but in this flow pattern, a spell of more severe cold seems inevitable. Weather buffs will realize that the appearance of the 516 dm thickness contour rippling across the UK towards Ireland means severe cold in the UK and plenty of snow in eastern counties there, which can only add to the potential for chttp://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=63761538old (and indirectly snow) in Ireland as the flow chills further.

This posts gets me excited , especially the stocking up part, it is getting really cold and everyone is noticing the changes.

Hope to be snowed in by Tuesday morning .
Anyone know anywhere in Dublin to get cheap skis?

pistolpetes11

Temp in Newbridge is a nice crisp -3.2 with a DP of -5.8.

Tonights model outputs ( from what I am reading from our resident experts ) are disappointing but I am still going to keep the faith that there is a good potential for a great snow event in the next few days.