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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)
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Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Saturday, 15 December, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, windy at times, with rather strong SW winds near west coast increasing to 40-70 km/hr, otherwise 30-50 km/hr, showers or periods of rain with generally 5-15 mm, highs about 8-10 C south, 5-8 C north.
TONIGHT ... Cloudy, showers or periods of light rain, lows 3-5 C. Winds backing to southerly 15-30 km/hr. Rainfalls 3-5 mm.
SUNDAY ... Frequent showers or periods of rain, breezy to windy SW to W at 40-70 km/hr, morning lows 3-5 C, highs near 9 or 10 C. Rainfalls about 10 mm.
MONDAY ... Cloudy, light rain or showers, some sleet or melting wet snow possible on hills in northwest, a bit colder in west to northwest winds 30-50 km/hr, lows of 1-3 C and highs around 7 C.
TUESDAY ... Frosty start, dry and partly cloudy daytime, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 6-9 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Windy (SE to SSW 40-70 km/hr), periods of rain that could start as sleet in north, milder in stages, lows 0-3 C and highs 7-11 C south, 4-7 C north.
THURSDAY ... Showers, windy (SW 40-60 km/hr), lows 2-4 C and highs 6-8 C.
FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, lows 2-4 C and highs 6-8 C.
OUTLOOK SATURDAY (22nd) to Post-CHRISTMAS DAY ... Yet another Atlantic low arrives later Saturday 22nd into Sunday 23rd with wind and rain (possibly sleet in some northern regions), then after a brief colder and dry spell around night of Sunday 23rd and morning of Monday 24th with slight frosts, more rain and fog by Christmas eve, possibly mixing with sleet in north, a suggestion of a brief colder turn for Christmas night but then getting quite windy later into overnight St Stephen's Day into 27th as deep low pressure tracks slowly east across regions just north of Ireland, highs each day in this pattern about 6-8 C for most, 8-10 C southwest, but there is some range of possible outcomes that includes a milder solution as well as a colder one that would perhaps bring about the rather faint hope of a white Christmas in this pattern -- the one thing favouring cold and snow is that at no time does the jet stream appear to lift into a really mild flow and the cold high continues to lurk somewhere east of the Baltic. But I think it's more likely to push west more forcefully well into January 2013.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Variable cloud, showers, gusty southwest winds across south, last of southeast gales in northern Scotland fading away, rain or mountain snow in north also fading to showers. Winds generally 40-70 km/hr across the south will diminish later to 30-50 km/hr. Highs 7-10 C south, 5-7 north.
TONIGHT ... Cloudy, moderate southwest winds, a few more showers, lows generally 3-5 C.
OUTLOOK ... Similar pattern to Ireland from Sunday on, mostly rather mild with frequent showers in south but continued slight colder incursions from east or southeast affecting mainly Scotland and north-central England usually in the opening phases of each disturbance that comes along, and also a similar outlook for Christmas period, windy with mixed precip likely Scotland and northern England, rain or showers south.
Forecasts for North America
Cold and dry in northern New England, eastern Canada, but mild and dry in the northeast states otherwise, also lower Great Lakes, parts of Midwest and southeast, highs about 12-16 C. Light rain spreading out of central plains states into upper Midwest, mild with highs also 12-16 C. Some wet snow further north closer to Canadian border and back into higher parts of Colorado, Wyoming. Mixed showery precip from another weak frontal wave in the higher parts of the southwest although likely to stay dry in southern Arizona. A dry start on the west coast with heavy rain moving in later.
My local weather on Friday was sunny by mid-day with cloud at both ends of the day, highs near 7 C.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Sunday, 16 December, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Frequent showers or periods of rain, breezy to windy SW to W at 40-70 km/hr, morning lows 3-5 C, highs near 9 or 10 C. Rainfalls about 10-15 mm.
TONIGHT ... Cloudy, further showers becoming sleety on higher ground in north, lows 2-5 C. Winds WSW 20-40 km/hr.
MONDAY ... Cloudy, light rain or showers, some sleet or melting wet snow possible on hills in northwest, a bit colder in west to northwest winds 30-50 km/hr, lows of 1-3 C and highs around 7 C.
TUESDAY ... Frosty start, dry and partly cloudy daytime, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 6-9 C. Rain moving into west by late afternoon.
WEDNESDAY ... Windy (SE to SSW 40-70 km/hr), periods of rain that could start as sleet in north, milder in stages, lows 0-3 C and highs 7-11 C south, 4-7 C north.
THURSDAY ... Showers, windy (SW 40-60 km/hr), lows 2-4 C and highs 6-8 C.
FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, lows 2-4 C and highs 7-10 C.
SATURDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, mild (possibly very mild) lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.
SUNDAY ... Rain at times, mild, becoming windy. Lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.
MONDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Some indications of strong winds developing, mild at first but turning colder, winds SW 50-80 km/hr (possibly stronger) veering westerly. Highs about 9-10 C south and 7-8 C north.
TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Current indications seem to converge on a cold, windy day but I would not be too surprised if the models have over-amplified the pattern so that it just turns out near normal and breezy. For now we'll say windy and highs near 6 C, chance of mixed wintry showers.
OUTLOOK ... Windy or even stormy from 26th to 28th, a general cooling trend towards New Years. Could see some wintry weather returning in the final hours of the year.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain or showers, winds SW 50-70 km/hr, highs around 8 C.
TONIGHT ... Cloudy, moderate southwest winds, a few more showers, lows generally 3-5 C.
MONDAY ... Cloudy, showers or periods of rain, turning slightly colder again, highs near 6 or 7 C.
TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, highs 5-8 C.
OUTLOOK ... Similar pattern to Ireland from Wednesday on, mostly rather mild with frequent showers in south but continued slight colder incursions from east or southeast affecting mainly Scotland and north-central England usually in the opening phases of each disturbance that comes along, and also a similar outlook for Christmas period, windy with mixed precip likely Scotland and northern England, rain or showers south. There could be some severe wind gusts in Scotland around Christmas Eve if the current models prove accurate.
Forecasts for North America
Cold and dry in eastern Canada, mild and cloudy with rain advancing into the northeast states, sleet, ice or snow in parts of inland NY-PA and lower Great Lakes, turning to rain by tonight. Some outbreaks of rain or sleet in the Midwest, and also in parts of the southwest and central plains states, trending to snow at higher elevations of the Rockies and Great Basin states. A strong windstorm is moving onto the west coast late today with coastal flood watches posted around Vancouver and Seattle due to storm surges as westerly winds gusting to near 110 km/hr hit the region late in the day after some heavy rainfalls.
My local weather on Saturday was wet although the rain started as wet snow and left some slushy accumulations on grassy surfaces and car windshields, nothing much on the roads however. Highs reached 5 C by late afternoon but it felt very cold in the wind. Expecting wind and rain later Sunday.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Monday, 17 December, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals mainly across the south, light rain or showers, risk of hail and the odd rumble of thunder, also some sleet or melting wet snow possible on hills in northwest, feeling a bit colder in west to northwest winds 30-50 km/hr, and highs around 7-8 C.
TONIGHT ... The last of any mixed or sleety showers ending across the north, clearing more rapidly in the south, leading to some frost and icy road conditions in some inland regions after midnight towards dawn. Lows could reach -2 C in some places but on average will be near zero to +3 C.
TUESDAY ... Frosty and somewhat icy start, dry and partly cloudy daytime, some sunshine mainly in eastern counties, highs 6-9 C. Rain moving into west by late afternoon as winds pick up rapidly there from the southeast. Some heavy rainfalls likely overnight into Wednesday morning (15-25 mm) in gusty southerly winds.
WEDNESDAY ... Windy (SE to SSW 40-70 km/hr), periods of rain followed by showers -- this could start as sleet in north in the early morning hours, turning milder in stages, lows 0-3 C north but 4-8 C south, and highs reaching 7-11 C south and central counties, 6-8 C north.
THURSDAY ... Showers, windy (SW 40-60 km/hr), lows 2-4 C and highs 6-8 C.
FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, lows 2-4 C and highs 7-10 C. Some models hint that it could turn colder in Ulster as east winds seep back into the picture briefly but Scotland stands a better chance of seeing any snow from this brief interruption in the relatively mild spell.
SATURDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, mild (possibly very mild) lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C. Moderate to strong south to southwest winds.
SUNDAY ... Rain at times, mild, becoming windy especially in west and north with SW gales possible. Lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.
MONDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Some indications of strong winds developing, continued rather mildr, winds SW 50-80 km/hr (possibly stronger) veering westerly. Highs about 9-11 C south and 7-8 C north. Winds may gust to about 100 km/hr in the north and 80 km/hr in the south.
TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... As speculated, the models have flattened out the upper level steering winds so Christmas Day is back to what the research model was saying many days ago, mild and windy with the risk of some rain, probably more towards the north, and highs 8-11 C, winds WSW 50-80 km/hr.
OUTLOOK ... Windy or even stormy from 26th to 28th, a general cooling trend as winds turn more to W-NW but models indicate yet another reload of the mild southwesterlies in the last two days of the month. I think it could turn a lot colder just after New Years and the zonal pattern could either break down for a while or go into a higher amplitude phase (larger swings in temperature).
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Cloudy, showers or periods of rain, turning slightly colder again, highs near 7 or 8 C except near 10 C in southern England. Winds veering westerly 40-70 km/hr.
TONIGHT ... Showers more confined to northern England and north Wales and becoming wintry over hills, some clearing elsewhere, cold. Lows 1-3 C for most, some isolated frost developing.
TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, highs 5-8 C.
OUTLOOK ... Similar pattern to Ireland from Wednesday on, mostly rather mild with frequent showers in south but continued slight colder incursions from east or southeast affecting mainly Scotland and north-central England usually in the opening phases of each disturbance that comes along, with the new development that a brief return to colder east winds could push into Scotland and some parts of northern England around Thursday night and Friday, so that sleet or snow could briefly replace rain there, then also a similar outlook for the 22nd onward through the Christmas period, windy with rain but some higher elevation mixed precip likely Scotland and northern England, rain or showers south and becoming very mild at times. There could be some severe wind gusts in Scotland around Christmas Eve if the current models prove accurate.
Forecasts for North America
Rain turning to sleet in some inland parts of the northeast U.S. but further rain along the east coast, temperatures slowly falling from near 10 C to closer to 5 C, sleet turning to snow in parts of Midwest and lower Great Lakes. Cold and dry in many parts of the northern plains and Canadian prairies, but a storm hitting the west coast in the early morning hours will rapidly spread snow inland (rain on the coast) reaching Alberta and Montana by afternoon and evening. Amounts across the Pacific northwest and southern B.C. could average 20-40 cms but on the coast it will become more of a windstorm as the low tracks across northern WA state into southeastern B.C. and southern Alberta.
My local weather on Sunday (in advance of this storm) was cloudy with rain in the afternoon, turning more to sleet this evening but no accumulation of snow here (above 300m it turns to heavy snow). Winds are backing from SE to E at about 50 km/hr, the stronger gusts are likely to miss my location to the south but expecting strong W-NW winds later tonight and on Monday.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Tuesday, 18 December, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
ALERT for dense fog with some freezing fog and icy sections of roads in eastern and central counties lasting possibly into late morning hours. ALERT for heavy rainfalls tonight (15-30 mm) with spot flooding most likely in central counties to north Leinster.
TODAY ... Frosty and somewhat icy start, persistent fog in some eastern and central counties, remaining dry and becoming partly cloudy later morning and mid-day, some sunshine mainly in eastern counties, highs 6-9 C. Rain moving into west by late afternoon as winds pick up rapidly there from the southeast.
TONIGHT ... Heavy rainfalls (possibly starting as sleet or hill snow) developing early evening in west Munster spreading rapidly northeast, rainfalls 15-30 mm into Wednesday morning with gusty southerly winds reaching 40-70 km/hr. Some spot flooding is likely to develop (Laois to Meath most at risk). Early lows of 0-3 C but temperatures rising gradually later in the night to reach about 5-7 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Windy (SE to SSW 40-70 km/hr), periods of rain followed by partial clearing with isolated showers, turning milder with highs reaching 7-11 C south and central counties, 6-8 C north.
THURSDAY ... Showers with some longer periods of light rain, breezy to windy (SW 40-60 km/hr) in western counties, lows 2-4 C and highs 6-8 C. Foggy at times in east.
FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, lows 2-4 C and highs 7-10 C. Some models continue to hint that it could turn slightly colder in Ulster as east winds seep back into the picture briefly but Scotland stands a better chance of seeing any snow from this brief interruption in the relatively mild spell.
SATURDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, mild (possibly very mild) lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C. Moderate to strong south to southwest winds developing.
SUNDAY ... Rain at times, mild, becoming windy especially in west and north with SW gales possible. Lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Some models are bringing a strong low into Ireland with rapid cooling to follow but the most reliable guidance (the ECM model) is staying on the continued mild track that this forecast has been following.
MONDAY (Christmas Eve) ... There continues to be an indication of strong winds developing, continued rather mild, winds SW 50-80 km/hr (possibly stronger) veering westerly. Highs about 9-11 C south and 7-8 C north. Winds may gust to about 100 km/hr in the north. Some guidance suggests a colder turn during the day so there is an outside chance of a white Christmas developing (but consider the chances about one in four perhaps).
TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... The most likely outlook is mild and windy with the risk of some rain, probably more towards the north, and highs 8-11 C, winds WSW 50-80 km/hr. However, there is some chance of a colder day if winds turn more to the northwest.
OUTLOOK ... This continues to be the situation: windy or even stormy from 26th to 28th, a general cooling trend as winds turn more to W-NW but models indicate yet another reload of the mild southwesterlies in the last two days of the month. It could turn a lot colder just after New Years and the zonal pattern could either break down for a while or go into a higher amplitude phase (larger swings in temperature).
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Fog slowly lifting with isolated showers, sunny intervals developing later this morning, some lingering frost and icy roads to late morning inland west, highs 5-8 C.
TONIGHT ... Rain arriving mostly after midnight lasting beyond sunrise, heavy at times, winds increasing to southeast or south 40-70 km/hr. Rising temperatures after midnight lows near -1 C.
OUTLOOK ... Similar pattern to Ireland from Wednesday on, mostly rather mild with frequent showers in south but continued slight colder incursions from east or southeast affecting mainly Scotland and north-central England usually in the opening phases of each disturbance that comes along, with the new development that a brief return to colder east winds could push into Scotland and some parts of northern England around Thursday night and Friday, so that sleet or snow could briefly replace rain there, then also a similar outlook for the 22nd onward through the Christmas period, windy with rain but some higher elevation mixed precip likely Scotland and northern England, rain or showers south and becoming very mild at times. There could be some severe wind gusts in Scotland around Christmas Eve if the current models prove accurate.
Forecasts for North America
The northeast U.S. continues to see a slow downward trend in temperatures and outbreaks of light rain or drizzle turning sleety or to wet snow over the higher terrain inland. Gradual clearing across the Great Lakes ahead of an advancing sleet-snow mixture in the Midwest, meanwhile a new disturbance has formed on the cold front of that system, over Colorado with sleet or snow although it remains mild and dry further south. Clearing briefly on the west coast with slight frosts and widespread ice and snow over the mountain ranges, some highway closures to mid-day before recovery later.
My local weather on Monday started out windy with rain and fog at times, then partial clearing with occasional ice pellet showers as temperatures all day hovered just above freezing in a brisk westerly wind. There was as expected some shoreline damage in the region from high tides and storm surge conditions (nothing too drastic, logs were driven over the seawall in Stanley Park closing the popular walking and cycling trail).0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Wednesday, 19 December, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Windy (SE to SSW 40-70 km/hr), periods of rain already mostly confined to northeast will be followed by partial clearing with isolated showers, turning milder with highs reaching 9-12 C south and central counties, 6-8 C north. Further rainfalls (from 0800h) about 5-10 mm in northeast and trace to 2 mm elsewhere.
TONIGHT ... Cloudy, periods of rain heavy at times in eastern counties (moving in from south, largely missing western counties although some light rain at times there) ... rainfalls 10-20 mm east, 3-7 mm west ... lows 5-7 C.
THURSDAY ... Further showers with some longer periods of light rain, as the heavier rain moves away from east during the morning ... breezy to windy (SW 40-60 km/hr) in western counties, highs 7-10 C. Foggy at times in east.
FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows 2-4 C and highs 7-10 C. Rainfalls about 5-10 mm. The models seem to have lost interest in any return of east winds to any part of Ireland or Britain, and so far every deviation from straight zonal southwesterly "service" seems to be a wrong move no matter which model is concerned, so ...
SATURDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, mild (possibly very mild) lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C. Moderate to strong south to southwest winds developing. Rainfalls about 10 mm.
SUNDAY ... Rain at times, mild, becoming windy especially in west and north with SW gales possible. Lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.
MONDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Breezy to windy, potential for winds SW 50-80 km/hr (possibly stronger) veering westerly. Highs about 9-11 C south and 7-8 C north. Winds could gust to about 100 km/hr in the north by evening or into Christmas morning. The chance of a white Christmas developing away from higher ground in the north seems slight at this point.
TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... The most likely outlook is mild and windy with the risk of some rain, probably more towards the north, and highs 8-11 C, winds WSW 50-80 km/hr. However, there is some chance of a colder day if winds turn more to the northwest.
OUTLOOK ... This continues to be the situation: windy or even stormy from 26th to 28th, a general cooling trend as winds turn more to W-NW but models indicate yet another reload of the mild southwesterlies in the last two days of the month. It could turn a lot colder just after New Years and the zonal pattern could either break down for a while or go into a higher amplitude phase (larger swings in temperature). The models are not picking this up yet, but it is almost two weeks away.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Rain and moderate to strong SE winds veering more to SW later in the day, rainfalls about 15-30 mm, highs 8-11 C for most, 5-8 C northern Scotland and highest elevations elsewhere.
TONIGHT ... Showers or periods of rain, mild, southerly winds 30-50 km/hr, and lows 4-7 C.
OUTLOOK ... Similar pattern to Ireland from Thursday on, mostly rather mild with frequent showers in south but continued slight colder incursions from east or southeast affecting mainly Scotland and north-central England usually in the opening phases of each disturbance that comes along, with the new development that a brief return to colder east winds could push into Scotland and some parts of northern England around Thursday night and Friday, so that sleet or snow could briefly replace rain there, then also a similar outlook for the 22nd onward through the Christmas period, windy with rain but some higher elevation mixed precip likely Scotland and northern England, rain or showers south and becoming very mild at times. There could be some severe wind gusts in Scotland around Christmas Eve if the current models prove accurate.
Forecasts for North America
The northeast states will see sleet or wet snow in a developing northeast wind flow as the persistent low repositions offshore and pulls away, bringing sleet and snow to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later today. A new storm is developing in Missouri, heading slowly towards Michigan (Friday's expected location) ... heavy rain will develop in the Ohio valley and lower Great Lakes with bands of sleet and freezing rain, snow further north. There are also outbreaks of snow in parts of the northern plains and southern prairies, with a new storm moving inland from the Pacific bringing snow to all but lowest elevations (rain near sea level). This will turn into a heavy snowfall event for most of the mountain ranges inland and eventually for Alberta and Montana.
My local weather on Tuesday featured the first significant snowfall (3-5 cm) that stayed on the ground all day in rather cold and foggy conditions, the high was only about 2 C, and we're now expecting another 5-10 cm snowfall later today (which has just started here at 1201h so time to post this!)0 -
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Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Thursday, 20 December, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Rain at times in eastern counties, becoming intermittent and drizzly towards mid-afternoon with a further 10 mm likely. Showery in west Munster, but largely rain-free although damp elsewhere due to fog or mist, turning partly cloudy by afternoon. Highs 7-10 C and winds mostly light from southeast to south.
TONIGHT ... Foggy or misty, patchy frost could develop well inland, but most places frost-free with lows 2-5 C. A few instances of icy road stretches can be expected inland central and north.
FRIDAY ... A mostly dry day with variable amounts of cloud, isolated showers, highs 7-10 C mildest in southwest. Winds moderate southerly.
SATURDAY ... Morning rainfalls of about 10-20 mm becoming drizzly or showery by afternoon, becoming milder, morning lows 4-7 C and afternoon or evening highs 11-13 C. Winds moderate SSW (30-50 km/hr).
SUNDAY ... Windy at times with rain or showers (10-20 mm) and gusty southwest winds 50-80 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs 8-10 C.
MONDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Breezy or windy with showers, turning somewhat colder in the afternoon or evening, winds SW to WNW 40-70 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.
TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Cloudy with moderate west to northwest winds, passing showers that may be mixed or wintry over higher terrain especially in Connacht and west Ulster, highs about 7 C (but 3-5 C over higher parts of northwest).
WEDNESDAY (26th) ... Windy with showers, somewhat milder again, highs near 9 C in strong west backing to southwest winds.
OUTLOOK ... Windy and turning colder in stages through the last few days of the year.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Outbreaks of heavy rain with 20-40 mm, heaviest in Wales and also parts of east Midlands, but fairly widespread. Highs 7-9 C. Hill fog and widespread mist.
TONIGHT ... Rain to drizzle, mild, lows 4-7 C. Sleet or wet snow could mix in over higher terrain in north.
FRIDAY ... Showers becoming more isolated, highs 6-9 C.
SATURDAY ... Rain, heavy at times in south and Wales, very mild in southwest by afternoon and evening (12-14 C) but foggy and about 7-9 C further north and east.
SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy and mild, showers or periods of rain, highs 8-10C.
OUTLOOK ... Windy and showery over the Christmas holiday period, mixed wintry showers possible over much of Scotland and northwest England at higher elevations and in Wales over higher summits. Highs generally 6-9 C.
Forecasts for North America
Rain and thunderstorms spreading further east from central plains and Midwest towards lower Great Lakes, Ohio valley, very mild from about NYC south to Florida and west as far as the slowly advancing cold front in IL, MO, AR and e TX. Highs 16-20 C. Heavy snow north of the track of the low in states from Iowa to Michigan (northern two thirds). Some falls of 15-30 cm with freezing rain closer to the warm front. Snow spreading inland from the Rockies and becoming milder in stages, rain on the coast melting earlier falls of heavy snow in western WA and southern BC. High avalanche risks in the mountains.
My local weather on Wednesday produced a heavy wet snow that quickly built up 10-12 cms before turning to sleet then a cold rain, thus a sloppy mess for walking and driving at least on side streets, the main highways quickly cleared in the volume of traffic (albeit most of that moving at about 20-30 km/hr in random directions at times). By late afternoon it was about 3 or 4 C in a strong SE wind. Foggy now at a minute past midnight (again).0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Astronomy note: At 11:13h today, the winter solstice takes place -- this is the instant at which the Sun reaches its lowest declination or the point at which the earth's north pole points furthest away from the Sun (an angle of about 23.4 deg). The idea behind the "Mayan apocalypse" is or was that the Sun would also eclipse the galactic centre which is thought to be the location of a massive black hole. While this may well be true, the interaction is unlikely to generate any large effects and as I mentioned elsewhere, this eclipse is only marginally different from what has happened at the same time of year every year in the past few decades. But just in case, it's been really nice knowing you all.
Friday, 21 December, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
ALERT for widespread dense fog and isolated frosty or icy sections on roads this morning. ALERT for heavy rainfalls tonight.
TODAY ... Foggy to start in many places, especially east-central inland, then becoming partly cloudy later, a mostly dry day other than fog or mist, with isolated showers developing west, highs 7-10 C mildest in southwest. Winds will become moderate southerly by afternoon.
TONIGHT ... Periods of rain, 10-20 mm arriving in west Munster in the evening and spreading to eastern counties by about midnight. Winds becoming rather blustery at SSE 40-70 km/hr. Temperatures about 5 C in the evening rising to near 10 C by morning.
SATURDAY ... Morning rainfalls of about 10-20 mm ending by late morning in Ulster and north Leinster, cloudy with drizzle or showers by afternoon, becoming milder with highs 11-13 C. Winds moderate SSW (30-50 km/hr).
SATURDAY NIGHT ... Another windy interval (SW 50-80 km/hr, gusts to near 100 km/hr in northwest coastal districts) with periods of rain, lows near 5 C.
SUNDAY ... Windy to start, with further rain or showers (10-20 mm total) and gusty southwest winds subsiding to westerly 40-70 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs 8-10 C.
MONDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Breezy or windy with showers, turning somewhat colder in the afternoon or evening, winds SW to WNW 40-70 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.
TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Cloudy with moderate west to northwest winds, passing showers that may be mixed or wintry over higher terrain especially in Connacht and west Ulster, highs about 7 C (but 3-5 C over higher parts of northwest). It appears a bit too mild for snow in most locations but there will probably be some reported in higher parts of Mayo, Donegal etc.
WEDNESDAY (26th) ... Windy with showers, somewhat milder again, highs near 9 C in strong west backing to southwest winds reaching 70-110 km/hr by evening.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Windy and possibly stormy especially in Connacht and west Ulster, potential on current maps for wind gusts to 120 km/hr in north and 100 km/hr other regions. Highs about 7-9 C, frequent blustery showers or squalls of hail. As this storm will accompany the full moon, tidal ranges will be unusually high on west-facing coasts especially Galway Bay.
OUTLOOK ... Windy and turning colder in stages through the last few days of the year.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Showers becoming more isolated, some fog and drizzle, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain near south coast, highs 6-9 C.
TONIGHT ... Windy and turning milder in stages with temperatures 10-12 C in the southwest by morning. Rain will be heavy at times as it sweeps through central and northern regions. Winds SE veering SSW 50-80 km/hr.
SATURDAY ... Rain, heavy at times in south and Wales, very mild in southwest by afternoon and evening (12-14 C) but foggy and about 7-9 C further north and east. Winds SW 40-70 km/hr.
SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy and mild, showers or periods of rain, highs 8-10 although turning colder in Scotland by afternoon, winds generally WSW 50-80 km/hr but could gust to 100 km/hr around Irish Sea coasts and southwest Scotland.
OUTLOOK ... Windy and showery over the Christmas holiday period, mixed wintry showers possible over much of Scotland and northwest England at higher elevations and in Wales over higher summits. Highs generally 6-9 C. Stormy at times from 27th to 29th.
Forecasts for North America
Stormy across the lower Great Lakes with rain changing to heavy wet snow, heavy rain in northeast U.S. as far north as about central VT-NH, heavy snow or sleet likely in Montreal and over higher parts of northern New England, as storm intensifies with new centre north of Boston replacing the dying circulation over Ontario. This will all conspire to sweep colder air rapidly southeast across Florida with risk of severe storms in Miami and region, otherwise clearing and much cooler than recently in southeast states, highs only about 5 C in strong NW winds. Clear and cold further northwest into the heart of this arctic outbreak, but mild in Texas and southwest states, while snow develops over central to northern Rockies and rain changes to wet snow near the west coast in advance of another snowstorm due on Saturday there. Canadian prairies are in a gradually warming situation as waves develop over the Rockies, no major chinook warming but temperatures creeping up towards freezing from -15 C.
My local weather on Thursday was rather unpleasant, cold and wet with the 10 cm snow pack gradually melting in a steady rain at 5-6 C. There is still enough snow to make it look white away from roads and sidewalks, but a lot of ponded meltwater in parking lots and lower lying areas. This rain seems likely to turn back to sleet and then more accumulating snow by Saturday.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
The world didn't end here either.
Saturday, 22 December, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Morning rainfalls of about 10-20 mm ending by mid-day in Ulster and north Leinster, cloudy with drizzle or showers by afternoon, becoming very mild with highs 11-14 C (possibly 15 C in southwest and due to warmth of local downsloping south of Dublin). Winds moderate SSW (30-50 km/hr).
TONIGHT ... Another windy interval (SW 50-80 km/hr, gusts to near 110 km/hr in northwest coastal districts) with periods of rain and some blustery hail showers developing in Donegal and Mayo, lows near 5 C.
SUNDAY ... Windy to start, with further rain or showers (5-15 mm total mostly during the early morning hours) and gusty southwest winds subsiding to westerly 40-70 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs 8-10 C.
MONDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Breezy or windy with showers becoming frequent and merging to longer periods of rain, turning somewhat colder in the afternoon or evening, winds SW to WNW 40-70 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mm possible. Overnight into Christmas morning, a rather cold and unsettled pattern may produce sleety showers in places, with some local fog or frost, lows -1 to +3 C. The best chance of snow would be at highest elevations of west.
TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Cloudy with moderate west to northwest winds developing by afternoon after a rather calm morning, passing showers that may be mixed or wintry over higher terrain especially in Connacht and west Ulster, highs about 7-9 C (but 3-5 C over higher parts of northwest). It appears a bit too mild for snow in most locations but there will probably be some reported in higher parts of Mayo, Donegal etc. Some sunshine likely at times mid-day in Leinster and Munster.
WEDNESDAY (26th) ... Windy with periods of rain that could begin with mixed wintry showers or sleet, becoming somewhat milder again, morning lows -1 to +3 C, highs near 9 C in strong west backing to southwest winds reaching 70-110 km/hr by evening.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY ... Frequently windy and possibly stormy especially in Connacht and west Ulster, potential on current maps for wind gusts to 120 km/hr in north and 100 km/hr other regions. Highs about 8-10 C, frequent blustery showers or squalls of hail. As this stormy period will accompany the full moon, tidal ranges will be unusually high on west-facing coasts especially Galway Bay.
OUTLOOK ... Windy and turning colder in stages through the last few days of the year.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Rain, heavy at times in south and Wales, very mild in southwest by afternoon and evening (12-14 C) but foggy and about 7-9 C further north and east with the mildest temperatures arriving late afternoon or evening in eastern England. Winds SW 40-70 km/hr. Rainfalls about 10-20 mm.
TONIGHT ... Windy and mild, rain redeveloping towards morning. Temperatures remaining near 10-12 C most of the night falling to about 6 C in western Scotland by morning.
SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy and mild, showers or periods of rain, highs 8-10 although turning colder in Scotland by afternoon, winds generally WSW 50-80 km/hr but could gust to 100 km/hr around Irish Sea coasts and southwest Scotland.
OUTLOOK ... Windy and showery over the Christmas holiday period, mixed wintry showers possible over much of Scotland and northwest England at higher elevations and in Wales over higher summits. Highs generally 6-9 C. Stormy at times from 27th to 30th.
Forecasts for North America
Sleet or snow across parts of the inland northeast states with strong NW winds and heavy lake effect snow squalls near Great Lakes, highs -2 to +3 C, somewhat less showery near Atlantic coast with strong WNW winds and highs about 5 C. This colder weather has swept into the southeast and will bring mostly clear skies and highs near 8-10 C with another frosty night before some recovery on Sunday to about 15 C (south of DC). Light snow will develop in the western Great Lakes and Midwest from a weak frontal wave dropping southeast towards New York, and this will pull down a fresh surge of colder air for Sunday in parts of the northeast and Great Lakes. A slow-moving and weak storm off the west coast is pushing sleet and snow inland and this may intensify somewhat to give 3-7 cm amounts later today.
My local weather on Friday was rather cold and sleety with highs near 5 C.0 -
UPDATE _ Sunday 23 December 2012 _ 0215h
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In case you haven't been following the storm thread on boards or the IWO facebook alerts and you turn to this thread upon being rudely awakened (awoken?) by the wind, an ALERT is in place for wind gusts to 120 km/hr in eastern and central Ireland especially the Dublin, Meath and nearby counties region, as well as east Ulster. These winds have already hit western parts of Ireland with peak gusts reported to 71 knots at Mace Head (that's close to 140 km/hr). The south coast may not get quite as blustery (peak gusts may be 90-110 km/hr there) but current strong winds around Dublin could peak at about 120 km/hr in gusts from west about 0300h. The wind storm should let up rather soon in western counties and about 0600-0900h in the east, as the gradient pushes rapidly across Britain and into the North Sea by mid-day.
Winds will continue rather gusty all day but in the more tolerable 50-70 km/hr range once this blows through.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Sunday, 23 December, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Strong westerly winds will continue to ease although not until mid-day in parts of Ulster, and there will be some additional showers (2-5 mm more except 5-8 mm in Ulster) as the gales ease to westerly backing to southwesterly 40-70 km/hr, with highs 8-10 C for most, 10-12 C south coast.
TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some brief clear intervals east, showers followed by periods of rain west (5-10 mm amounts), lows 2-5 C east and 5-7 C west. Winds not very strong for most locations, S 20-40 km/hr in more exposed coastal or hilly districts.
MONDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Breezy or windy with showers becoming frequent and merging to longer periods of rain, winds SW backing to S 30-50 km/hr, lows zero to 4 C with patchy frost or icy roads possible well inland, and highs near 8-10 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mm possible but the rain should move east and let up by afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT (to Christmas morning) ... Overnight into Christmas morning, a rather cold and unsettled pattern may produce sleety showers in places, with some local fog or frost, lows -1 to +3 C. The best chance of snow would be at highest elevations of west. The most likely place to encounter icy roads would be rural north Leinster and central Ulster. The most likely place to encounter Santa would be near the tree (or at my place, the fridge).
TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Cloudy with moderate west to northwest winds developing by afternoon after a rather calm morning, passing showers that may be mixed or wintry over higher terrain especially in Connacht and west Ulster, and which could become thundery with hail in some parts of the inland south with highs about 6-8 C (but 3-5 C over higher parts of northwest). It appears a bit too mild for snow in most locations but there will probably be some reported in higher parts of Mayo, Donegal etc. Some sunshine likely at times mid-day in Leinster and Munster. The day is really going to produce a wide variety of weather, as a weak low drifts through the south followed by a moderate northwest flow of showery and somewhat cold Atlantic origins, so a bit of everything may be encountered especially if you're driving any distances.
WEDNESDAY (26th) ... A cool and dry start with some icy roads possible in slight frosts, then windy with periods of rain that could begin with mixed wintry showers or sleet, becoming somewhat milder again, morning lows -1 to +3 C, highs near 9 C in strong west backing to southwest winds reaching 50-80 km/hr by evening. High tidal ranges on west coast.
THURSDAY ... Breezy to windy and mild, winds SW 50-80 km/hr, highs reaching 10-12 C late in the day, 5-15 mm rain heavier in west and south. High tidal ranges on west coast and near Cork.
FRIDAY ... Breezy to windy and very mild, highs 11-14 C, winds SSW 50-80 km/hr, showers or periods of rain. High tidal ranges continuing, full moon date.
SATURDAY ... Windy and not quite as mild, potential for very strong winds at times (at least 60-90 km/hr) from WSW, highs 8-10 C. High tidal ranges continuing.
SUNDAY ... Very windy and turning colder with mixed showers over higher parts of northwest, winds WNW 60-110 km/hr, highs near 7 C. High tidal ranges and possible storm surge conditions.
OUTLOOK ... Windy and turning colder in stages through the last few days of the year.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Breezy to windy and mild, showers or periods of rain, highs 8-10 although turning colder in Scotland by afternoon, winds generally WSW 50-80 km/hr but could gust to 100 km/hr around Irish Sea coasts and southwest Scotland. Severe wind gusts in exposed locations northern England and in particular downsloping lee waves in Tyneside and Durham regions. Damaging gusts to 130 km/hr are possible there. Frequent showers or periods of rain in central Scotland in blustery west winds 50-80 km/hr.
TONIGHT ... Less windy with a few more showers and some clear intervals, lows 3-6 C.
MONDAY ... Cloudy, showers or periods of rain, mild, southerly winds at about 30-50 km/hr, highs near 10 C.
TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Variable cloud, showers, highs 6-8 C. A bit of sunshine here and there.
OUTLOOK ... Windy and showery over the rest of the Christmas holiday period, mixed wintry showers possible over much of Scotland and northwest England at higher elevations and in Wales over higher summits on Boxing Day but turning milder by 27th. Highs generally 6-9 C rising to 10-13 C by Thursday 27th. Stormy at times from 27th to 30th.
Forecasts for North America
At this moment on the summit of Mount Washington NH (at 6680' as I recall from hiking up there in the summer once upon a time) the current temperature is -22 C and the winds westerly 110 mph with snow. Down below it is just cloudy with flurries and winds of 30-50 mph. This more wintry weather is fairly widespread in the northeast now and a minor snowfall event is likely on Christmas Eve into Christmas Day in advance of a much stronger storm from the southwest on the night of 26th-27th -- that will turn snow to rain and bring in strong SE winds. Meanwhile, the Great Lakes region will be wintry throughout since the ultimate storm will also bring snow to them as it tracks through central NY state into New England. The plains states will be seeing outbreaks of light snow today and heavier snow Christmas Day, continuing cold, but rather mild near the Gulf coast in heavy rain at times through the period. The southwest will have occasional showers, and western Canada will be cold with outbreaks of sleet near the coast and snow elsewhere, trending to clear and very cold in northern regions under strong arctic high pressure that will remain almost stationary near Victoria Island in the western arctic.
My local weather on Saturday started with sleet but just turned cloudy and dry later, cold at 3-4 C. Expecting wet snow late today or tonight into Monday.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all -- I hope to continue posting forecasts through the holiday but may miss one or two days as our travel plans are not settled yet (looking for a good combination of weather and available travel) although the destination is known (inland B.C. where there is real winter, not this coastal mish-mash).0 -
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Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Monday, 24 December, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Breezy with showers becoming frequent and merging to longer periods of rain, winds SW backing to S 30-50 km/hr, and highs 8-10 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mm possible but the rain should move east and let up by afternoon. Misty after the showers with perhaps a brief sunny interval during the afternoon.
TONIGHT (Christmas Eve to Christmas morning) ... A rather cold and unsettled pattern may produce sleety showers in places, with some local fog or frost, midnight temperature about 4-5 C, eventual lows by dawn about 2 to +3 C for most, -1 C possible in a few spots. The best chance of snow would be at highest elevations of west. The most likely place to encounter icy roads would be rural north Leinster and central Ulster. The most likely place to encounter Santa would be near the tree (or at my place, the fridge).
TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Cloudy with moderate west to northwest winds developing by afternoon after a rather calm morning, passing showers that may be mixed or wintry over higher terrain especially in Connacht and west Ulster, and which could become thundery with hail in some parts of the inland south and east with highs about 6-8 C (but 3-5 C over higher parts of northwest). It appears a bit too mild for snow in most locations but there will probably be some reported in higher parts of Mayo, Donegal etc. Some sunshine likely at times mid-day in Leinster and Munster. The day is really going to produce a wide variety of weather, as a weak low drifts through the south followed by a moderate northwest flow of showery and somewhat cold Atlantic origins, so a bit of everything may be encountered especially if you're driving any distances.
WEDNESDAY (26th) ... A cool and dry start with some icy roads possible in slight frosts, then windy with periods of rain that could begin with mixed wintry showers or sleet, becoming somewhat milder again, morning lows -1 to +3 C, highs near 9 C in strong west backing to southwest winds reaching 50-80 km/hr by evening. High tidal ranges on west coast.
THURSDAY ... Breezy to windy and mild, winds SW 50-80 km/hr, highs reaching 10-12 C late in the day, 5-15 mm rain heavier in west and south. High tidal ranges on west coast and near Cork.
FRIDAY ... Breezy to windy and very mild, highs 11-14 C, winds SSW 50-80 km/hr, showers or periods of rain. High tidal ranges continuing, full moon date.
SATURDAY ... Windy and not quite as mild, potential for very strong winds at times (at least 60-90 km/hr) from WSW, highs 8-10 C. High tidal ranges continuing.
SUNDAY ... Very windy and turning colder with mixed showers over higher parts of northwest, winds WNW 60-110 km/hr, highs near 7 C. High tidal ranges and possible storm surge conditions.
OUTLOOK ... Monday (31st) should be the last in a sequence of rather mild days with another blast of southwest winds but much like last year the charts currently show New Years Eve (midnight that is) turning much colder in strong west to northwest winds -- this may be wintry for a few hours but a more pronounced change to colder weather may require one or two more tries. Here's something very long-range -- I have research data suggesting very mild weather returning at times in late January then much colder in February. Maybe this year the cold will push west a bit more effectively than last winter when it made quite an impact on eastern England but failed to reach western parts of Britain or Ireland in much strength.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Cloudy, showers or periods of rain, mild, southerly winds at about 30-50 km/hr, highs near 10 C. Rainfalls 15-30 mm. This rain is spreading north and the showers in Ireland will spread into northwest England later to merge with this system.
TONIGHT ... Rain becoming showery, drizzle or fog and some areas clearing to become locally frosty, but lows in most cases 3-5 C.
TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Variable cloud, showers, highs 6-8 C. A bit of sunshine here and there.
OUTLOOK ... Windy and showery over the rest of the Christmas holiday period, mixed wintry showers possible over much of Scotland and northwest England at higher elevations and in Wales over higher summits on Boxing Day but turning milder by 27th. Highs generally 6-9 C rising to 10-13 C by Thursday 27th. Strong SW winds at times from 27th to 30th.
Forecasts for North America
A minor snowfall event (5-10 cm) is likely on Christmas Eve into Christmas Day in advance of a much stronger storm from the southwest on the night of 26th-27th -- that will turn snow to rain and bring in strong SE winds. Meanwhile, the Great Lakes region will be wintry throughout since the ultimate storm will also bring snow to them as it tracks through central NY state into New England. The plains states will be seeing outbreaks of light snow this morning clearing later before the arrival of heavier snow Christmas Day morning, continuing cold, but rather mild near the Gulf coast in heavy rain at times through the period. The southwest will have occasional showers, and western Canada will be cold with outbreaks of sleet near the coast and snow elsewhere, trending to clear and very cold in northern regions under strong arctic high pressure that will remain almost stationary near Victoria Island in the western arctic.
My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with light rain at times, just a bit too mild for snow at 5 C. Expecting wet snow to mix in today or tonight into Christmas Day, a sort of white Christmas ahead then.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Tuesday, 25 December, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
Astronomy note: Jupiter will appear close to the nearly full moon tonight and the moon reaches full phase on Friday 28th.
TODAY ... (Christmas Day) ... Cloudy with moderate west to northwest winds developing by afternoon after a rather calm morning, passing showers that may be mixed or wintry over higher terrain especially in Connacht and west Ulster, and which could become thundery with hail in some parts of the inland south and east with highs about 6-8 C (but 3-5 C over higher parts of northwest). It appears a bit too mild for snow in most locations but there will probably be some reported in higher parts of Mayo, Donegal etc. Some sunshine likely at times mid-day in Leinster and Munster. The day is really going to produce a wide variety of weather, as a weak low drifts through the south followed by a moderate northwest flow of showery and somewhat cold Atlantic origins, so a bit of everything may be encountered especially if you're driving any distances.
TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, a few more showers and some longer periods of rain or sleet in west (sleet only at higher elevations), lows 2-5 C. Some isolated frost or icy sections of road inland north.
WEDNESDAY ( St Stephen's Day 26th) ... Windy with periods of rain that could begin with mixed wintry showers or sleet, a dry interval mid-day, then becoming somewhat milder again with another interval of rain later in the day, highs 7-9 C in strong west backing to southwest winds reaching 50-80 km/hr by evening. High tidal ranges on west coast.
THURSDAY ... Breezy to windy and mild, winds SW 50-80 km/hr, highs reaching 8-11 C late in the day, 5-15 mm rain heavier in west and south. High tidal ranges on west coast and near Cork.
FRIDAY ... Breezy to windy and very mild, highs 11-14 C, winds SSW 50-80 km/hr, showers or periods of rain. High tidal ranges continuing, full moon date.
SATURDAY ... Windy and not quite as mild, potential for very strong winds at times (at least 60-90 km/hr) from WSW, highs 8-10 C. High tidal ranges continuing.
SUNDAY ... Very windy and turning colder with mixed showers over higher parts of northwest, winds WNW 60-110 km/hr, highs near 7 C. High tidal ranges and possible storm surge conditions.
OUTLOOK ... Monday (31st) should be the last in a sequence of rather mild days with another blast of southwest winds gusting to about 80 km/hr but much like last year the charts currently show New Years Eve (midnight that is) turning much colder in strong west to northwest winds -- this may be wintry for a few hours but a more pronounced change to colder weather may require one or two more tries. Here's something very long-range -- I have research data suggesting very mild weather returning at times in late January then much colder in February. Maybe this year the cold will push west a bit more effectively than last winter when it made quite an impact on eastern England but failed to reach western parts of Britain or Ireland in much strength. Meanwhile, this turn to colder weather on New Years eve may not dig in very hard as a milder pattern quickly returns.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... (Christmas Day) ... Variable cloud, showers or intervals of light rain, highs 7-9 C. A bit of sunshine here and there by afternoon. Winds moderate southwest veering to northwest in Scotland and Wales, 30-50 km/hr with a few higher gusts in exposed locations.
TONIGHT ... Showers becoming more isolated and wintry over higher parts of north, cold, lows 2-4 C.
WEDNESDAY (Boxing Day 26th) ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of rain, could start as sleet in some higher locations. Highs 6-8 C in westerly winds increasing to 40-70 km/hr.
OUTLOOK ... Somewhat milder by 27th. Highs generally 6-9 C rising to 10-13 C by Friday 28th. Strong SW winds at times from 27th to 30th becoming westerly as temperatures fall back to 7-9 C by Sunday 30th. Windy and mild for New Years Eve turning colder early morning of New Years Day.
Forecasts for North America
For the northeast states, mostly inland, a minor snowfall event (5-10 cm) is likely on Christmas Eve into Christmas Day in advance of a much stronger storm from the southwest on the night of 26th-27th -- that will turn snow to rain and bring in strong SE winds. Meanwhile, the Great Lakes region will be wintry throughout since the ultimate storm will also bring snow to them as it tracks through central NY state into New England. The plains states will have outbreaks of snow or sleet trending to rain in the Ohio valley and Tennessee, highs will range from -1 C in the snow to +7 C in the rain, and the southeast will be milder still with showers and thunderstorms. The southwest will have occasional showers, and western Canada will be cold with outbreaks of sleet near the coast and snow elsewhere, trending to clear and very cold in northern regions under strong arctic high pressure that will remain almost stationary near Victoria Island in the western arctic. Little change is expected for several days in western regions.
My local weather on Monday was cloudy but mostly dry, with light rain or sleet setting in this evening, temperatures steady 3-5 C.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all
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Hoping that we can maintain a forecast schedule ... but check a bit later in the day than usual for your updates from 26th to 30th.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Wednesday, 26 December, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
ALERT for fast-moving band of moderate to heavy rain that could produce temporary poor visibility and ponding on roads mid-day, conditions should improve within 2-3 hours of any poor driving conditions, prepare for delays. The system should be oriented Donegal to Wicklow by mid-day and is moving east at about 80 km/hr.
TODAY ... ( St Stephen's Day) ... A dry start in the east and parts of the north but becoming windy with an interval of rain lasting 3-4 hours that could begin in north as mixed wintry showers or sleet, followed in the southwest by a dry interval mid-day, that also spreading rapidly east ... another interval of rain later in the day towards evening, highs 7-9 C except 10-12 C south coast, in strong south to southwest winds reaching 50-80 km/hr mid-day, veering more to west by afternoon and evening. High tidal ranges on south and west coasts. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm, expect some ponding on roads mid-day especially around Laois-Kildare.
TONIGHT ... Any further rain turning to drizzle or sleet then ending, some clearing, rather cold. Lows -1 to +3 C, icy sections on some roads inland north. Winds WSW 20-40 km/hr in exposed locations will keep west coastal temperatures 4-7 C.
THURSDAY ... Breezy to windy and slowly becoming milder, winds SW 50-80 km/hr, highs reaching 8-11 C late in the day after reaching about 6-8 C early afternoon, 5-15 mm rain heaviest in south, as once again a band of fast-moving moderate to heavy rain is likely but this time more concentrated across the south. High tidal ranges on west coast and near Cork. Heavy rain likely overnight into Friday in gusty south to southwest winds. 20-30 mm rain could fall in total.
FRIDAY ... Breezy to windy and very mild, highs 11-14 C, winds SSW 50-80 km/hr, showers or periods of rain. High tidal ranges continuing, full moon date.
SATURDAY ... Windy and not quite as mild, potential for very strong winds at times (at least 60-90 km/hr) from WSW, lows 3-5 C and highs 8-10 C. High tidal ranges continuing south and west coasts.
SUNDAY ... Very windy and turning colder with mixed showers over higher parts of northwest, winds WNW 60-110 km/hr, lows about 2-4 C and highs near 7 C. High tidal ranges and possible (minor to moderate) storm surge conditions west coast.
MONDAY (31st) should be the another rather mild day with southwest winds gusting to about 80 km/hr, periods of rain or showers, and highs near 10 C.
TUESDAY (1 Jan) may then turn a bit colder in strong westerly winds and the risk of blustery, mixed showers over higher parts of the north, then moderating. Highs near 6 C.
OUTLOOK ... At the moment most guidance for the period 2-5 January is showing a very mild southwest to west flow around high pressure setting up over the Azores to Portugal. If these maps verify, highs could be close to record highs at times, 12-14 C. This could change somewhat as we get closer to that time frame.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Variable cloud, dry start in some areas, afternoon showers or periods of rain, moving rapidly into Wales and the southwest mid-day and then rapidly east across England, gusty winds SW 50-70 km/hr veering westerly and highs 6-8 C (8-11 C south).
TONIGHT ... Foggy, rain ending, lows 2-5 C, moderate westerly winds.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Periods of rain, highs about 7-9 C Thursday then turning even milder with gale force SW winds developing, heavy rain returning to southwest England possibly renewing flooding. Highs 11-14 C.
OUTLOOK ... Strong SW winds over the weekend, turning colder in stages with highs 7-9 C Saturday and 5-7 C Sunday. Similar further outlook to Ireland as posted above.
Forecasts for North America
The main story today is a slow-moving storm system bringing severe storms to parts of the southeast (into GA, SC later) and rain trending to ice and snow further inland north and west. The heaviest snows through tonight and tomorrow will probably be in upstate NY and northern New England as well as parts of southern Ontario and Quebec. Amounts of 20-30 cms are forecast for that region. The larger cities on the Atlantic seaboard will get sleet and rain mostly, with highs of about 5-8 C. Some wet snow could fall near the end of the storm event late tomorrow. Otherwise, the pattern further west is rather quiet as another weak system is forming over the Great Basin region with small amounts of snow over higher terrain. The west coast remains rather wet and chilly but above freezing with rain or sleet.
My local weather on Christmas Day was wet and the rain had some snowflakes mixed in at times but with no accumulation locally (heavy snow on some higher hills around) with highs about 4 C.0 -
UPDATE _ 27 Dec 0530h
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MTC now truly in holiday mode, will keep an eye on things but unless huge changes from earlier stated forecasts or lack of updates, I may be absent until closer to New Years. Hope you are all enjoying your own holiday celebrations.0 -
ADVANCE ALERT _ Thurs 27 Dec 8:15 p.m.
_________________________________________
ALERT for strong winds most regions, most intense west and northwest coasts, and possible minor to moderate storm surges on west coast and parts of south coast ... two peaks of wind speed can be expected, Friday afternoon/evening (SW 90-130 km/hr) and Saturday night into Sunday morning (WSW 90-140 km/hr). High tides Friday and Saturday nights could see overtopping of some seawall areas in Galway, Mayo etc. Would rate this about a borderline minor/moderate storm surge potential. Large waves and swells will be generated especially in the second phase and through Sunday as a very deep low will be moving slowly east about 60 deg N. If the gradient increases any further this alert may require an upgrade into the significant wind-damage category but for now would imagine the results will be largely similar to the previous event although felt over a larger area.
Watch for further updates.0 -
UPDATE -- Friday, 28 Dec 2012 at 0500h
Full moon is timed for 10:21 today. This will interact with strong SSW veering WSW winds later today to create higher tides than might be anticipated from tide tables by 0.5 to 1.0 metres. It will be very mild until late today with temperatures in the 12-14 C range. Winds are expected to peak around 6-9 p.m. at SW 90-130 km/hr but may become almost this strong by mid-day on the west coast.
Although winds should slacken somewhat late tonight there will be another surge of very strong westerly winds late Saturday. These will also peak in the range of 90-130 km/hr from WSW, and by this time the sea state will be very disturbed from 3-4 days of continually building SW to W fetch around a slow-moving deep low further north -- this will result in 10-15 metre waves in marine areas not far from shore (7-10 m south of Ireland and 3-6 m Irish Sea). Some of these battering waves could combine with almost storm surge conditions of tides 0.8 to 1.2 metres above normal to create locally dangerous overtopping of shoreline sea walls in Galway Bay and other coastline areas facing west and to some extent on the south coast as well. Be advised to view from a safe distance and elevation although it will be so windy and cold by that point that viewing would also be very uncomfortable (not to mention darkness etc).
Winds should gradually ease again later Sunday to moderate westerly or WNW 40-70 km/hr. Highs on Saturday 7-9 C and on Sunday about 5-7 C.
Otherwise any updates would follow in general the earlier forecasts and I could mention that parts of the inland northeast U.S. have seen 15-35 cms of snow past two days with more to come on Saturday this time accumulating on the coast in NYC and BOS. I have been some distance inland from home base and here it has been cloudy, near -1 C with low cloud ceilings and the occasional skiff of snow or snizzle, the ground here is barely covered with 3-5 cms snow but that makes it look a lot more like Christmas.
Stay safe on your travels. -- MTC0 -
UPDATE -- Friday, 28 Dec 2012 at 0500h
Full moon is timed for 10:21 today. This will interact with strong SSW veering WSW winds later today to create higher tides than might be anticipated from tide tables by 0.5 to 1.0 metres. It will be very mild until late today with temperatures in the 12-14 C range. Winds are expected to peak around 6-9 p.m. at SW 90-130 km/hr but may become almost this strong by mid-day on the west coast.
Although winds should slacken somewhat late tonight there will be another surge of very strong westerly winds late Saturday. These will also peak in the range of 90-130 km/hr from WSW, and by this time the sea state will be very disturbed from 3-4 days of continually building SW to W fetch around a slow-moving deep low further north -- this will result in 10-15 metre waves in marine areas not far from shore (7-10 m south of Ireland and 3-6 m Irish Sea). Some of these battering waves could combine with almost storm surge conditions of tides 0.8 to 1.2 metres above normal to create locally dangerous overtopping of shoreline sea walls in Galway Bay and other coastline areas facing west and to some extent on the south coast as well. Be advised to view from a safe distance and elevation although it will be so windy and cold by that point that viewing would also be very uncomfortable (not to mention darkness etc).
Winds should gradually ease again later Sunday to moderate westerly or WNW 40-70 km/hr. Highs on Saturday 7-9 C and on Sunday about 5-7 C.
Otherwise any updates would follow in general the earlier forecasts and I could mention that parts of the inland northeast U.S. have seen 15-35 cms of snow past two days with more to come on Saturday this time accumulating on the coast in NYC and BOS. I have been some distance inland from home base and here it has been cloudy, near -1 C with low cloud ceilings and the occasional skiff of snow or snizzle, the ground here is barely covered with 3-5 cms snow but that makes it look a lot more like Christmas.
Stay safe on your travels. -- MTC0 -
UPDATE _ Sat Dec 29 _ 0700h
Previous comments about second stage of alert for strong winds now looking closer to 0400-0800h Sunday across mainly northern counties, would currently estimate peak gust potential 120-130 km/hr ... then after somewhat of a mid-day easing to 50-70 km/hr another interval of about 80-110 km/hr winds likely Sunday evening this time mainly southern and eastern counties.
Around the midnight hour of New Years Eve expect cold windy weather with some potential for wintry showers on higher terrain, temperatures about 2-4 C but feeling closer to -5 in the wind. Then very mild for several days beyond the 2nd of January, possibly into the 12-14 C range.
Snowfalls of 15-30 cm likely in NYC, BOS and region later today and tonight.
MTC on the road later today and tonight and next forecast update from me likely about mid-day Sunday. Other folks are watching and will no doubt update you if things change rapidly.
N0 -
UPDATE _ Sunday, 30 Dec 2012 _ 0945h
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ALERT for strong winds developing again late tonight peaking around 0200-0700h and probably strongest in the central counties from Galway to Meath, similar to the event before Christmas although I think it may not be quite that strong, winds about 80 km/hr gusting to 110 km/hr. Will re-assess this around 5-6 p.m. from later guidance -- the system is currently a long way out to the west near 30W and therefore the error potential is fairly wide compared to most systems.
The coldest air of this mobile pattern is currently overhead so it should start to feel milder late today and temperatures will be moving in the opposite direction to normal with a peak overnight then another falling off from that maximum during the day Monday. By New Years Eve (midnight) it will be feeling very cold in a blustery W-NW wind and wintry showers are possible with temperatures not much above 2 C. That colder spell won't last much longer than the average New Years -- well you know
-- and it will turn a lot milder quickly enough 2nd-6th.
I am now back at home base where it's very foggy and about 3 C.
We should get back to regular forecast messages by Monday, but watch for an update on the strong wind potential before 6 p.m.0 -
UPDATE _ Sunday, 30 Dec _ 6:00 p.m.
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Little change from previous alert, based on later guidance. This should play out as a somewhat less intense repeat of the pre-Christmas event that hit around Galway to Meath, and the timing is still somewhat uncertain with a model spread of about 3-4 hours on either side of 0500h, so probably the best timing would be late overnight in the west and a little after sunrise in the east. Peak wind gusts likely to be in the 100-120 km/hr range. Will continue to monitor as the system is still a good distance out to the west at around 22 W from satellite imagery and so this could upgrade at the last minute, so watch for an update around 9-10 p.m. ... As the warm sector comes through tonight temperatures will peak at 10 or 11 C near the onset of the strong winds (0400h west to 0700h east).0 -
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UPDATE _ Sun 30 Dec 2012 _ 11:45 p.m.
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ALERT for strong winds maintained at previous level and timing. Expect peak gusts 0300-0500h on west coast, 0600h inland Connacht, 0700h Derry to Athlone and 0800h Meath-Dublin, to give a general idea of timing. Peak gusts will occur when trough shifts wind direction from SSW to WSW and about when temperatures start to slide down. Peak gusts (forecast to be 100-120 km/hr central and north, also southwest counties, trending to 80-100 ikm/hr in southeast counties) should persist 3-4 hours before gradually subsiding.
Temperatures will stay in the range of 9-11 C until the peak winds arrive and then will slide down towards 5-7 C mid-day and 1-3 C evening of New Years Eve.
Full forecast "package" resumes Monday morning around 0730h. No further updates on wind event unless conditions show an upgrade. From the look of the satellite imagery and reports from M6 buoy, I think the strongest winds are aimed about at Galway and Mayo, south Donegal and across that latitude range towards Meath. Somewhat less blustery further south although windy enough. Malin Head and north Donegal may not respond to stronger winds until well past 0900h as slack gradient moves across far north.
Squally showers that eventually become mixed and wintry can be expected at times in the colder westerly flow second half of the day on Monday 31st.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Monday, 31 December, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Windy and turning colder with a few blustery showers, some brief sunny intervals developing, winds briefly quite strong this morning (WSW 60-90 km/hr with isolated gusts to 110 km/hr), then not quite as windy by afternoon although cold in the wind (WSW 40-70 km/hr, temperatures falling to about 5-6 C). Rainfalls only 1-3 mm and some risk of mixed wintry showers by afternoon in higher parts of Connacht and west Ulster.
TONIGHT ... Happy New Year, but be prepared for some very cold and blustery weather with passing showers that could include snow or sleet in a few cases, certainly hail, and temperatures that are just around 1-3 C feeling more like -5 C in westerly winds 50-80 km/hr in exposed locations.
TUESDAY, New Year's Day ... Bright and breezy, not feeling as cold by afternoon as westerly winds continue to abate slowly, showers mainly confined to west and rather squally there, but longer intervals of sunshine possible elsewhere, highs 6-8 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, a brief interval of light rain sweeping through northwest coastal districts but dry elsewhere, turning very mild again in moderate southwest winds, morning lows 3-7 C and highs 8-12C.
THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... A very mild spell with the source of the southerly wind flow down around Portugal, so the only issue will be whether calm overnight conditions in the southeast could lead to any fog or local cooling of the air mass, for most, the days will be partly cloudy to sunny at times with mist and fog patches, some of these dense overnight, light southerly winds in the east and moderate southerlies in the west ... typical lows 3-7 C and highs 10-13 C. There could be some drizzle or light rain on the outer west coast but most places will be largely dry.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models are now being challenged by global signals of a stratospheric warming and this makes 7-15 day model output very unreliable. I've seen some guidance maintaining mild southerly flow and other guidance showing a rapid swing to colder east winds. Expect a series of gradual changes to colder and more unsettled weather towards the energy peak around 10th-12th associated with new moon. This could become wintry but I am more inclined to think late January and February will bring the more intense winter patterns if they manage to break through this mild regime. It may be a long, slow transitional process that takes up much of January.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Breezy to windy, mild, turning a bit colder in the west by late in the day, a few showers or periods of light rain but also a few sunny breaks, winds strongest near the Isle of Man and Irish Sea coasts, southwest Scotland, where WSW 70-110 km/hr, otherwise 50-80 km/hr. Highs 10-12 C.
TONIGHT ... Becoming colder with frequent showers, some turning wintry on higher terrain and in the north, as winds become W 40-70 km/hr and temperatures fall off to 3-5 C south, 1-3 C north/central.
TUESDAY (New Year's Day) ... Variable cloud, passing showers, some of these squally, rather cold in blustery W-NW winds 40-70 km/hr, highs 5-7 C except 8-10 C in southwest England.
OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland although larger portions of inland southern England could see colder nights and more extensive fog, even some limited frost or ice in a few spots, and the fog may be slow to lift in a few parts of the inland southeast due to light winds and a strong inversion. But western and northern regions will probably be quite mild with highs 9-13 C.
Forecasts for North America
The last of the snowstorm that hit the northeast states recently is moving out of eastern Canada into the Labrador Sea, but strong northwest winds and cold arctic air will follow. There is a weak high cresting over the inland northeast and Ohio valley bringing some wintry sunshine and highs near 2 C. More snow is developing further west around Missouri and Iowa ahead of somewhat milder air moving north into the south-central plains states with rain and fog in Oklahoma, Arkansas and north Texas. The inland western U.S. is extensively socked in by fog in valleys and low cloud under a strong high over Utah and Idaho. This rather cold, stagnant air mass is sending some fingers of cold down valleys towards the west coast but offshore there's a mild southerly flow, so most of the coastal cities are in a blend of partly cloudy rather chilly weather with highs 3-7 C.
My local weather (back home now) has been partly cloudy on Sunday with a reasonable high of 6 C. This felt warm to me after spending a week in the colder inland region where there was snow on the ground. No snow has fallen here for days now and the ground is rather dry for late December.
Happy New Year ... best wishes to all for 20130 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Tuesday, 1 January, 2013
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Bright and breezy, cold to start out, but not feeling as cold by afternoon as westerly winds 40-60 km/hr continue to abate slowly, showers increasingly confined to west and north, and rather squally there at times, but longer intervals of sunshine possible elsewhere, highs 6-8 C.
TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, chance of a brief interval of light rain in north, dry elsewhere, lowest temperatures shortly after sunset as milder air arrives after midnight, evening lows 2-4 C then rising to 4-6 C. Winds backing from WNW 20-40 km/hr to SW 30-50 km/hr.
WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, any morning showers brief with trace amounts of rain mostly, then turning very mild again in moderate southwest winds, morning lows 3-7 C and highs 8-12C.
THURSDAY ... Very mild with some sunshine, morning fog lifting for most but could remain as low cloud in a few spots, lows 3-5 C and highs 8-12 C with moderate SW winds.
FRIDAY ... Continued very mild, dense fog overnight could persist in a few inland locations southeast counties, lows 2-6 C and highs 9-13 C. Winds backing more to south and rather slack in east.
SATURDAY ... Very mild with some hazy sunshine, fog patches, lows 2-6 C and highs 10-14 C. There is some slight risk of persistent fog and isolated morning frost in some parts of inland east. Winds picking up again in western counties to a moderate southerly.
SUNDAY ... Little change, risk of rain increasing in northwest as a distant front edges closer, winds somewhat more SW'ly with lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.
MONDAY ... Chance of showers in west, continued very mild.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The mild spell will probably break down rather slowly in stages and if you're looking for truly wintry weather, that may require a few weeks yet, but keeping an eye on a possible unsettled interval by 10th-12th.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers, some of these squally, rather cold in blustery W-NW winds 40-70 km/hr, highs 5-7 C except 8-10 C in southwest England.
TONIGHT ... Milder with rain arriving in western Scotland and extending later into northern England, remaining dry in most of Wales and south-central England. Lows about 2-4 C and temperatures rising later in the night.
OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland although larger portions of inland southern England could see colder nights and more extensive fog, even some limited frost or ice in a few spots, and the fog may be slow to lift in a few parts of the inland southeast due to light winds and a strong inversion. But western and northern regions will probably be quite mild with highs 9-13 C.
Forecasts for North America
Dry and seasonable in most parts of the eastern U.S., with outbreaks of light sleet or snow in Midwest, showers in parts of south central states, and cold dry weather moving south into northern plains states from central Canada. Somewhat milder but also dry further west except for outbreaks of very light snow in a few places. In general, a quiet and uneventful weather pattern ... my local weather on the last day of 2012 was partly cloudy with a high of about 6 C, and now approaching New Years Eve it is clear and about -1 C.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Wednesday, 2 January, 2013
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, any morning showers brief with trace to 2 mm amounts of rain, and very mild again in moderate southwest winds 20-40 km/hr except 40-60 km/hr in northwest coastal districts, highs 10-12C.
TONIGHT ... Overcast with drizzle or light rain, fog and mist ... lows 4-7 C with winds mainly light becoming calm inland.
THURSDAY ... Very mild with some sunshine developing after morning drizzle, morning fog lifting for most but could remain as low cloud in a few spots, highs 8-12 C with moderate SW winds 20-40 km/hr.
FRIDAY ... Continued very mild, dense fog overnight could persist in a few inland locations southeast counties, lows 2-6 C and highs 9-13 C. Winds backing more to south and rather slack in east.
SATURDAY ... Very mild with some hazy sunshine, fog patches, lows 2-6 C and highs 10-14 C. There is some slight risk of persistent fog and isolated morning frost in some parts of inland east. Winds picking up again in western counties to a moderate southerly. Rain developing in coastal northwest by late in the day.
SUNDAY ... Sporadic light rain moving across mostly northern counties early in the day, turning slightly cooler in north by mid-day, some sunshine returning later, highs near 8 C north and 10-12 C south. Rather slack winds as the front is weak and may dissipate.
MONDAY ... Chance of showers in west, continued very mild, becoming more windy (SW 50-80 km/hr western counties, 30-50 km/hr eastern). Highs 9-11C.
TUESDAY ... Windy with showers, winds SW to WNW 40-70 km/hr, turning somewhat cooler. Highs near 7 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The cooler trend is probably aiming more at normal than truly cold temperatures and it may be some time before more wintry patterns can develop although this first week is likely to be the mildest weather for some time. My research tells me that there could be a few very mild days after the first attempt at cold, rather late in the month, in advance of any more significant wintry cold.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Cloudy with haze, fog and some drizzle or light rain in places, highs 8-11 C.
TONIGHT ... Cloudy with drizzle or light rain, foggy. Lows 4-7 C.
OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland Thursday to Monday although larger portions of inland southern England could see somewhat colder nights (-1 to +3 C) and more extensive fog, even some limited frost or ice in a few spots, and the fog may be slow to lift in a few parts of the inland southeast due to light winds and a strong inversion. But western and northern regions will probably be quite mild and similar to Ireland, with highs 9-13 C.
Forecasts for North America
Dry and somewhat milder than average across most of the southeast and east central states, trending to dry and cold in New England, Quebec and eastern Canada, as strong NW winds abate over Newfoundland. A weak low drifting southeast from Manitoba towards Wisconsin will bring light snow or freezing drizzle to the upper Midwest in temperatures not far from -1 C. Slightly colder air is working south behind this but mild Pacific air is settling into the western prairies in a weak to moderate chinook pattern, driving temperatures above 5 C. Interior valleys of the western mountain ranges and the Great Basin region (UT-ID-NV) will remain cloudy or foggy and rather cold.
My local weather on New Years Day started out very foggy and then became just cloudy later, with a coldish high of 4 C.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Thursday, 3 January, 2013
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Very mild with some sunshine developing after morning drizzle, this most persistent in north (trending to some light rain far north), meanwhile morning fog with some dense patches lifting for most but could remain as low cloud in a few spots, highs 10-14 C with moderate SW winds 20-40 km/hr.
TONIGHT ... Widespread fog and drizzle, low cloud, very mild, some places may remain near 10 C, any clearing would lead to a drop off to near 4-5 C and the fog would become dense enough for near-zero visibility to develop locally (this most likely in valleys in south inland).
FRIDAY ... Continued very mild, dense fog overnight could persist in a few inland locations southeast counties, and highs 10-14 C. Winds backing more to south and rather slack in east. Some persistent dense fog is possible in a few places (inland south valleys).
SATURDAY ... Very mild with some hazy sunshine, fog patches, lows 6-9 C and highs 10-14 C. There is some slight risk of persistent fog and isolated morning frost in some parts of inland east. Winds picking up again in western counties to a moderate southerly. Scattered outbreaks of light rain developing in parts of the west by afternoon. Weekend rainfalls in the range of 5-15 mm, heaviest in Connacht and west Munster.
SUNDAY ... Sporadic light rain moving across mostly northern counties early in the day, turning slightly cooler, some sunshine returning later, morning lows 3-7 C and highs near 10 to possibly 12 C south. Moderate southwest winds for western and northern counties, rather slack winds inland southeast.
MONDAY ... Chance of showers in west, continued very mild, becoming more windy (SW 40-70 km/hr western counties, 30-50 km/hr eastern). Lows 4-7C and highs 9-11C.
TUESDAY ... Cloudy and breezy with showers, winds SW to WNW 30-60 km/hr, turning somewhat cooler. Highs near 7 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... All models are showing a somewhat cooler pattern by mid-week (next week) with the dominant theme being slack winds and nearby high pressure that at this time of year would probably imply slight frosts returning at night and daytime temperatures in the range of 5 to 8 C. However this pattern could then transition to windy and unsettled around the energy peak likely with new moon 11th to 13th. Any severe cold is likely to be delayed well into late January or February.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Cloudy with haze, fog and some drizzle or light rain in places, highs 9-13 C.
TONIGHT ... Cloudy with drizzle or light rain, foggy. Lows 4-7 C. Some patchy dense fog inland south where temperatures fall below 5 C.
OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland Friday to Monday although larger portions of inland southern England could see somewhat colder nights (locally -1 to +3 C) and more extensive fog, even some limited frost or ice in a few spots, and the fog may be slow to lift in a few parts of the inland southeast due to light winds and a strong inversion. But western and northern regions will probably be quite mild and similar to Ireland, with highs 9-13 C. Rainfalls generally rather light except in some parts of western Scotland.
Forecasts for North America
Outbreaks of light snow or freezing drizzle in the Great Lakes with a weak low, temperatures near +1 C. Trending to mild and dry further south with a few areas of light rain embedded in cloud from a weak front running east-west through the Carolinas and Tennessee into Arkansas. South of that front highs will be 20-23 C. The central and western states and most of central to western Canada are under a sprawling high that is rather cold near its core but is being surrounded by mild Pacific air that is creating a rather strong chinook warming to near 8-10 C in parts of Alberta, Montana and western parts of SK and ND. It is not particularly cold in most of the Canadian arctic at this point.
My local weather on Wednesday was foggy to start, partly cloudy to sunny during the day, with a high near 6 C.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Friday, 4 January, 2013
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Continued very mild, dense fog overnight could persist in a few inland locations southeast counties, and highs 10-14 C. Winds backing more to south and rather slack in east. Some persistent dense fog is possible in a few places (inland south valleys).
TONIGHT ... Foggy or misty, very mild, lows 6-9 C.
SATURDAY ... Very mild with some hazy sunshine, fog patches, with highs of 10-14 C. There is some slight risk of persistent fog in some parts of inland southeast. Winds picking up again in western counties to a moderate southerly. Scattered outbreaks of light rain developing in parts of the west by afternoon. Saturday and overnight rainfalls in the range of 5-15 mm, heaviest in Connacht.
SUNDAY ... Sporadic light rain moving across mostly northern counties early in the day, turning slightly cooler, some sunshine returning later, morning lows 3-7 C and highs near 10 to possibly 12 C south. Moderate southwest winds for western and northern counties, rather slack winds inland southeast.
MONDAY ... Chance of showers in west, continued very mild, becoming more windy (SW 40-70 km/hr western counties, 30-50 km/hr eastern). Lows 4-7C and highs 9-11C.
TUESDAY ... Cloudy and breezy with showers, winds SW to WNW 30-60 km/hr, turning somewhat cooler. Highs near 7 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A few unsettled days later next week then a more normal January temperature regime with frosts returning at night, but uncertain indications of any really cold weather in the near future, would still suggest late January into February looking best for that.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Cloudy with haze, fog and some drizzle or light rain in places, also a few sunny breaks and quite mild with highs 10-14 C.
TONIGHT ... Cloudy with drizzle or light rain, foggy. Lows 4-7 C. Some patchy dense fog inland south where temperatures fall below 4 C.
OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland Saturday to Tuesday although larger portions of inland southern England could see somewhat colder nights (locally -1 to +3 C) and more extensive fog, even some limited frost or ice in a few spots, and the fog may be slow to lift in a few parts of the inland southeast due to light winds and a strong inversion. But western and northern regions will probably be quite mild and similar to Ireland, with highs 9-13 C. Rainfalls generally rather light except in some parts of western Scotland.
Forecasts for North America
Temperatures may be fairly wintry but the weather patterns are very bland for January. A slight warming trend is developing in the eastern U.S. but it won't reach New England until tomorrow, so highs will range from about -3 C in Maine to 5 C in NYC and 10-15 C in Virginia, 17-20 C in the southeast states, mostly under sunshine with some cloudy intervals. The regions from central plains north into the prairies will be quite mild in a broad westerly flow with chinook warming added, highs 7-12 C. Rain is moving slowly inland around Washington and British Columbia, and colder air is gradually being expelled from valleys by a stronger southerly wind gradient. But there are still patches of ice fog and low cloud where cold air remains trapped.
My local weather on Thursday was sunny with increasing afternoon cloud, and now it is raining a bit as of 11:20 p.m. here.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Saturday, 5 January, 2013
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Very mild with some hazy sunshine, fog patches, with highs of 10-14 C. There is a slight risk of persistent fog or low cloud in some parts of inland southeast. Winds picking up again in western counties to a moderate southerly. Scattered outbreaks of light rain developing in parts of the west about mid-day and spreading to Connacht by afternoon. Some parts of the southeast may remain dry. Weekend rainfalls will generally be in the range of 5-15 mm, heaviest in Connacht.
TONIGHT ... Rain clearing east and turning somewhat colder across the north, where lows of 2-5 C likely, remaining cloudy in the south in advance of a returning warm front, lows 5-8 C. Rain could redevelop by early morning in Kerry.
SUNDAY ... Any morning sunshine or bright intervals will fade behind increasing cloud as more rain develops, moving northeast across the country during the mid-day and afternoon hours. The morning chill may not last all day as milder air pushes back north but highs in Ulster may remain 6-8 C while other regions see 9-12 C.
MONDAY ... Chance of showers, heaviest in the north and west, continued mild, becoming more windy (SW 40-70 km/hr western counties, 30-50 km/hr eastern). Lows 4-7C and highs 9-11C.
TUESDAY ... Cloudy and breezy with showers, winds SW to WNW 30-60 km/hr, turning somewhat cooler. Highs near 7 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Near normal temperatures will return later in the week with slightly unsettled conditions before a colder spell under higher pressure by about next weekend -- this could develop into something more vigorous around the end of that weekend and colder air will be spreading west again from Russia, but at this point it still appears like a slow advance beyond central Europe and intervals of milder weather can still develop when the Atlantic pushes back -- eventually this colder air could arrive in a big way so stay tuned (my estimate on that really cold spell is very late January or first week of February).
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Cloudy with haze, fog and some drizzle or light rain in places, heavier rain moving into western Scotland by afternoon or evening. A few sunny breaks could develop in southern England, all regions very mild with highs 10-14 C.
TONIGHT ... Cloudy with drizzle or light rain, foggy. Lows 5-8 C.
SUNDAY ... Rain and moderate southwest winds developing, highs 10-12 C.
OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland next week, although when it turns a bit colder late next week, more severe frosts are possible in eastern England than in other regions.
Forecasts for North America
The pattern remains very bland for January, with little if any precipitation across large portions of the U.S. and southern Canada. It remains rather cold in New England but milder in most other eastern and central states, and very mild in the chinook zone of Montana and Alberta. Snow is confined to weak arctic fronts well north of most population centres in north-central Canada, and even there temperatures are above normal values at about -10 to -15 C.
My local weather on Friday was cloudy with intermittent light rain, not much accumulation, and highs near 7 C.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Sunday, 6 January, 2013
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Any morning sunshine or bright intervals will fade behind increasing cloud as more rain develops, during the morning on the west coast, then moving northeast across the country during the mid-day and afternoon hours. Rainfalls of 5-15 mm likely, heaviest in Connacht, while some parts of the southeast may see only trace amounts. Mild with extensive fog developing during the rain, highs about 10-12 C. Moderate S-SW winds 40-60 km/hr by mid-day and afternoon except for a few areas of the inland southeast.
TONIGHT ... Further outbreaks of light rain, rather mild and foggy, lows about 5 to 8 C. Moderate SW winds 30-50 km/hr.
MONDAY ... Chance of showers, heaviest in the north and west, continued mild, becoming more windy (SW 40-70 km/hr western counties, 30-50 km/hr eastern). Lows 4-7C and highs 9-11C.
TUESDAY ... Cloudy and breezy with showers, winds veering from SW to WNW 30-60 km/hr, turning somewhat cooler. Morning lows 4-6 C and highs near 7-8 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows 2-4 C and highs 6-8 C.
THURSDAY ... Becoming colder with rain possibly mixing with sleet, temperatures steady in the range 3-5 C and possibly colder in Ulster.
FRIDAY & OUTLOOK ... Sleet or snow possible in east winds, highs 2-4 C. This cold spell seems about 60% likely and later guidance could either deepen the cold or back off to more marginal temperatures (as we saw at one point last month), and I still feel this is not the main push of cold but possibly a brief forerunner, however it should be said that some guidance indicates fairly extensive cold by next weekend. Stay in touch.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Rain for Scotland and parts of northern England, and moderate southwest winds developing, highs 10-12 C. Partly cloudy to overcast with isolated drizzle or light rain further south, highs 9-11 C.
TONIGHT ... Further light rain mainly in north, lows 4-7 C.
OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland next week, although when it turns a bit colder late next week, more severe cold is quite possible in eastern England than in other regions. The risk of snow is probably greatest by Thursday night or Friday in regions from East Anglia to eastern Scotland.
Forecasts for North America
Rather mild (not record-breaking in most cases) and dry for most of the eastern and central U.S., very mild in northern plains and parts of the Canadian prairies then turning a bit colder late in the day in parts of Alberta as winds turn more northwesterly. Light rain on the west coast making limited progress inland where it will turn to light snow over some higher terrain.
My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with spits of rain but little accumulation. The high was about 7 C.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Monday, 7 January, 2013
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Rain will continue this morning, heaviest in the north and west, further rainfalls 10-15 mm in Connacht and Ulster, 5-10 mm Munster and Leinster, then becoming showery then dry for the afternoon in some parts of the south and west, brief sunny breaks developing there ... continued mild, becoming more windy (SW 40-70 km/hr western counties, 30-50 km/hr eastern). Highs 9-11C.
TONIGHT ... Another interval of showers with moderate and locally gusty SW winds 30-50 km/hr, mild with lows about 6-9 C. This rainfall may be fairly brief and rather light compared to today, 2-5 mm.
TUESDAY ... Cloudy and breezy with morning showers, sunny intervals developing as winds veer from SW to WNW 30-60 km/hr except 50-90 km/hr in Donegal, turning somewhat cooler. Morning temperatures 9-10 C then about 7-8 C by afternoon.
WEDNESDAY ... Isolated frost or fog inland east, some sunny intervals in eastern counties, variable cloud with risk of showers west, lows 0-4 C and highs 6-8 C.
THURSDAY ... Becoming colder with rain possibly mixing with sleet, temperatures steady in the range 3-5 C and possibly colder in Ulster where rain may change to snow.
FRIDAY & OUTLOOK ... Sleet or snow possible in east winds 30-50 km/hr, highs 2-4 C for most and 4-7 C in Munster. The cold may relent somewhat after a day or two then redevelop mid-week around the 15th. More severe cold could eventually develop late this month or in February.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Mild and dry in parts of the south, showers or periods of rain in the north, reaching central regions by afternoon, highs 8-11 C. Rainfalls 20-30 mm in parts of Scotland, moderate SW winds 40-70 km/hr.
TONIGHT ... Showers moving further south, clearing in western Scotland, lows about 6-8 C in gusty SW to W winds. Lows 6-8 C.
TUESDAY ... Showers clearing, breezy to windy, highs near 9 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Colder with morning frost, sunny intervals, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 5-8 C.
OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, cold, rain or sleet south, sleet or snow central and north, some accumulations by Friday in eastern England? Highs about 3-5 C.
Forecasts for North America
Turning quite cold in Quebec, New England and upstate New York, eastern Ontario, highs near -6 C, but sunny after a few light flurries. Cloudy further south and west and staying milder there, highs 5-8 C trending to the 15-20 C range closer to the Gulf coast. A rather weak system in the Canadian prairies is bringing some light snow but rather mild temperatures for that region with slightly colder weather further west, outbreaks of snow over the Rockies trending to rain near the coast, where highs will be 7-9 C.
My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with occasional rain and fog, and a high of 8 C.0 -
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Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Tuesday, 8 January, 2013
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Cloudy and breezy with morning showers fading in eastern counties, sunny intervals developing gradually (the clouds will move slowly east and you may see a distinct clearing line slowly approaching from west) as winds veer from SW to WNW 30-60 km/hr except briefly 50-80 km/hr in Donegal this morning, turning somewhat cooler. Temperatures falling gradually then steady near 7-8 C by afternoon.
TONIGHT ... Clear intervals and becoming quite cold with local frost and fog, some icy roads likely with lows -3 to +2 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Isolated frost or fog inland east slow to dissipate in some areas, but some sunny intervals developing in eastern counties, variable cloud with risk of showers west, and highs 6-8 C. Feeling a lot colder than previous week.
THURSDAY ... Cloudy and quite cold with rain possibly mixing with sleet, temperatures steady in the range 4-6 C and possibly colder in Ulster where rain may change to snow. Turning slightly milder afternoon and evening in Munster with highs reaching 7-8 C -- about 6 C in Dublin and Galway. Rather foggy on higher terrain.
FRIDAY ... A dry start in most areas, some local frost with lows 1-3 C, then by afternoon a cold and foggy rain, sleet or snow mixture possible in east winds 30-50 km/hr, highs 2-4 C for most and 4-7 C in Munster. Snow is more likely on higher terrain by afternoon and evening. Rain or equivalent amounts 5-15 mm into early Saturday.
SATURDAY ... Cold with mixed wintry showers and brisk east to northeast winds, some accumulations of snow on hills ... lows near 1 C and highs near 4 C, winds ENE 30-50 km/hr adding chill, rain or equivalent amounts 2-4 mm.
SUNDAY ... Cold but dry, frosty to start, some sunny intervals, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 3-6 C except 7-9 C west coast.
MONDAY ... Milder with showers or periods of light rain, southwest winds returning, highs near 10 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Several mild days again but hints of a more intense cold spell to follow ... still thinking February might be "the" month but the wintry spell could arrive just before January ends.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Showers clearing from north and west although continuing at times further east, breezy to windy (W 40-70 km/hr Scotland, trending to 25-40 km/hr south), highs near 9 C north and 11 C south.
TONIGHT ... Cloud clearing late in south, lows 3-5 C ... frost and fog developing further north, lows -2 to +3 C except -5 C central Scotland valleys.
WEDNESDAY ... Colder with morning frost, sunny intervals, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 5-8 C.
OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, cold, rain or sleet south, sleet or snow central and north, some accumulations by Friday and Saturday in eastern England? Highs about 3-5 C. Cold to about mid-day Monday warming first in Scotland then further south during the week. Possible severe cold spell to follow?
Forecasts for North America
A rather uneventful spell continues with mostly mild, dry weather in eastern states, the cold easing over New England today in southwest winds, and a few flurries in seasonable temperatures where southwest winds blow inland from open Great Lakes (Buffalo NY for example). An area of chilly rain is developing in south Texas and may spread into Louisiana then further east tomorrow, due to northeast winds highs of about 10-12 C are below local normals. Light snow has developed across large sections of the Canadian west and northern plains states in advance of fronts moving inland across the Rockies but temperatures are actually a bit above normal. Light to moderate rain in bands of showers from central California to Alaska on the west coast, no big storms but some locally gusty winds.
My local weather on Monday started wet but became cloudy and dry in the afternoon with a slight elevated fog, highs about 7 C. There is a lot of snow in the local mountains, by the way, but nothing below about 500m.0
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