Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 20-11-2012 8:12am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 20 November, 2012

Situation update: A fast-moving and rather limited disturbance is developing off the west coast and seems likely to produce an interval of strong winds. I have adjusted my schedule to keep a close watch on developments through mid-day, the alert at present covers a range of possible outcomes, guidance is not considered as reliable as usual given the volatile nature of the system. The most certain thing about it would be that it will not last very long however strong it becomes, a period of 2-4 hours of strong winds will move through, something like 1100-1500h on the west coast and 1300-1700h in parts of Ulster. Parts of the south and east will likely not see much increase in wind speed and will also miss the heavier showers.

ALERT for possible strong S-SW winds mid-day, accompanied by isolated squally showers with hail and thunder, situation remains somewhat uncertain, gusts to 80 km/hr seem probable and 120 km/hr possible as the system is expected to develop rapidly and have only a 2-3 hour duration moving through western and later northern counties ... some parts of south and east will not be affected ... there is also a squally frontal trough moving northeast towards inland Connacht and central Ulster that could give hail and torrential downpours ahead of the strong winds. Rainfalls generally 10-25 mm in regions outlined (much less in southeast).

ADVANCE ALERT for intervals of strong winds and heavy rainfalls Thursday and Friday, 20-40 mm rainfalls possible, rather windy on Thursday but gusts to 100 km/hr in SW winds developing on Friday.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy to windy with showers or periods of rain (further rainfalls of 15-25 mm in parts of Connacht, Ulster, 5-10 mm more common for south and east) with some hail and thunder, and highs near 10-12 C, southerly winds 40-70 km/hr may rise to 60-90 km/hr in the northwest mainly (higher gusts possible in exposed coastal locations) ... strongest winds likely around noon to 4 p.m. in coastal Connacht and 3 p.m. to 7 p.m. in west-central Ulster. These stronger winds may not make any impact on parts of south and east. A few squally showers will accompany the strong winds with hail and thunder, possible local tornadic wind streaks may develop (moving from southwest), a close watch will be kept, check for updates. Clare, Galway, Mayo, Donegal and nearby portions of other counties most at risk from this fast-moving event. While all this is happening, large sections of the south and east could be in relatively tranquil, partly cloudy to sunny weather at times.

TONIGHT ... Blustery in north at first, more moderate SW winds 30-50 km/hr elsewhere spreading to north by midnight, mild with a few showers in coastal regions mainly, lows about 6 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy with winds SW 30-50 km/hr, showery and continued rather mild, some sunny intervals in east-central regions, and highs about 11 or 12 C, with a further 5-10 mm rain in some places.

THURSDAY ... Windy (S 50-80 km/hr) and mild with rain (10-20 mm), lows about 6 C and highs about 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy to windy, SW 40-70 km/hr, some gusts to 90-100 km/hr by mid-day, showers or periods of rain, mild but becoming somewhat fresher. Winds SW 30-60 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Weekend showery and a bit colder with squally showers at times, highs 7-9 C, overnight lows 2-5 C and a return to isolated and patchy frost and icy road sections.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Breezy mid-day with strong winds (80-120 km/hr) for Scotland and northwest England by evening, staying just breezy further south and east although rather windy in southwest and south central, S 40-70 km/hr. Showers including some hail and thunder. Very mild in south, highs 12-14 C. About 10 C in Scotland and northeast England.

TONIGHT ... Windy in Scotland, breezy elsewhere, mild, lows 5-8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and breezy with showers most of the week, another period of strong winds likely for Scotland, northwest England, north Wales around Thursday. Highs remaining close to 10 C and largely frost-free nights. Slightly colder and staying unsettled on the weekend.

Forecasts for North America

Mild, dry weather dominates most of the U.S. with highs typically 10-12 C in the northeast states and Great Lakes, 15-18 C central plains and 20-23 C in the southwest and Gulf coast, Florida. Some rain at first near North Carolina coast but that system is heading out to sea now. Periods of rain in the Pacific northwest and southern B.C., mild into the southern prairies, snow across the northern prairies towards the western subarctic regions. Wintry cold has become firmly established "north of 60" with a blizzard raging in the far northern mainland and southern arctic islands in -15 to -25 C temperatures up that way. Down here in the "banana belt" we have had a misty and mild day with highs near 12 C and the overnight has become partly cloudy with occasional views of the half moon and (on the other side of the sky) Jupiter.

Watch for updates if we get better indications of potential for damaging wind gusts in western counties mid-day.

M.T. Cranium · 20-11-2012 3:19pm

UPDATE _ Tues 20 Nov 2012 _ 2:15 p.m.
______________________________________

The worst of the strong winds (peaking at about 60-100 km/hr with local gusts to 120 km/hr) and squally showers now approaching west Galway and Mayo, expect stormy conditions to peak around 3 p.m. in the Galway Bay region and 4 p.m. around Ballina, then around 5 p.m. near Donegal Bay, inland extent of the 80 km/hr wind gusts about Lough Derg to Athlone to central Ulster ... conditions in west Munster other than north Clare have probably peaked and there will be less extensive squally showers as most of the activity passes by just offshore but north Clare see above for Galway Bay region. There may be a slight increase in wind speeds in Leinster and east Munster as this system races past but not expecting gusts much above 60 km/hr in most places there.

Thanks for the many reports, and please note, winds will tend to veer rapidly in Connacht and later in west Ulster from S to about WSW, your local conditions will depend partly on local terrain and how these winds interact with the local hills, so as they veer some observers will see rapid changes in wind speed both increasing and decreasing depending on exposure. If you live in a more exposed or less hilly location your exposure to the winds will be more constant but gusts will depend partly on proximity to squally showers moving past. A close watch is being kept on the radar for any locally damaging wind potential, at present it looks like the usual minor damage of tree branches down and loose objects blown about.

M.T. Cranium · 21-11-2012 9:02am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 21 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy and milder again by mid-day, any patchy frost should dissipate quickly as temperatures rise to about 8-11 C ... some sunny intervals with isolated showers at first, periods of rain developing from west to east later, 5-10 mm by evening ... winds rising to S 40-70 km/hr during the afternoon (some higher gusts possible near west coast).

TONIGHT ... Mild and showery with some steady rain at times, 10-15 mm rainfalls, winds S 30-50 km/hr with a brief interval of stronger winds possible (45-70 km/hr), lows 5-8 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud with passing showers, breezy to windy at times, SW 40-70 km/hr and rainfalls 5-10 mm, except 10-20 mm parts of southeast as heavier rain develops there by later afternoon. Highs 9-11 C. Intervals of strong winds may develop (WSW 50-80 km/hr) by evening and overnight.

FRIDAY ... Breezy to windy, a bit fresher and cooler with passing showers, some with hail or thunder. Morning lows near 5 C and highs 8-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, rather chilly. Morning lows near 2 C and afternoon highs 7-9 C. Some patchy frost or black ice on roads in the morning.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain developing, risk of some strong winds depending on storm track (from south). Highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Models are converging on a colder pattern for the following week although I see hints that they may downgrade this closer to the time, so would not be too confident about any really wintry scenarios developing, probably just a bit cooler in a north to northeast flow and some frost at night, highs 5-7 C.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY, TONIGHT and THURSDAY ... Frequently wet with strong southerly winds at times, about 30-40 mm rainfalls in total and highs both days near 10 or 11 C in south, 8-10 C in Scotland.

FRIDAY ... Windy with showers, a bit cooler, highs 8-10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Uncertain as to timing but showery at first, becoming windy and wet on Sunday, and slight risk of severe winds developing if the storm is both intense enough and tracks into Britain from Biscay. Another scenario brings the storm more towards Ireland. This would return Britain to a mild southerly flow until Monday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Colder and possibly a bit on the wintry side in eastern regions, as the main thrust of colder air will be across the North Sea and into central Europe.

Forecasts for North America

Turning much colder across parts of the prairies with snow developing, temperatures falling to -10 C in Alberta (AB) and -5 C in Saskatchewan (SK), but mild in the eastern prairies and northern plains ahead of the storm, highs around 5-10 C. Wet at times on the west coast. Otherwise, large sections of eastern, central and southwestern U.S. and eastern Canada dry and mild trending to dry and very warm in the southwest. Highs about 12-14 C but nights rather chilly with patchy frost and fog in central and eastern regions away from the warmer Gulf coast region.

My local weather on Tuesday was quite variable with a few sunny breaks, passing showers and even some lightning observed off to the northeast where hail was reported. The highs were about 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 22-11-2012 4:58am

UPDATE _ Thursday, 22 November 2012 _ 0400h
_____________________________________________

Good morning, posting this a bit earlier than usual; an alert is required for the Dublin region and I wanted to have it available before the usual forecast time.

ALERT for heavy or torrential rainfall in most of Leinster between now and about 0800h, potential for 25-50 mm rainfalls with flooding of some low-lying areas and roadways ... the rain may be accompanied by some thunder and lightning ... strong winds may develop in some areas but the mountains may block large parts of Dublin from these winds ... Laois, Kildare, Meath and Dublin will probably see the heaviest of this rain but all counties in Leinster may receive the lower amounts in the alert (25 mm). Watch for updates.

Added at 0730h ... Most of the heavy rain moved through Kildare, Meath towards east Ulster, some flooding has probably developed in regions west of Dublin (city) so expect possible disruptions if travelling through. Forecast now being posted, should be on line about 0745h.

The full forecast will be posted later, in general, other than this alert the forecast should follow the earlier themes.

M.T. Cranium · 22-11-2012 8:52am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 22 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Heavy rain should end soon in east, watch for leftover flooding in Meath, Kildare and Laois, also Louth and east Ulster. Strong wind gusts should also subside soon, but the day will remain rather blustery with variable cloud and further passing showers, winds SW 40-70 km/hr and additional rainfalls 5-15 mm. Highs 9-11 C. Intervals of strong winds may develop (WSW 50-80 km/hr) by evening and overnight and there could be another outbreak of thunder and lightning in a partial squall line around 3-6 p.m. Watch for updates.

TONIGHT ... Blustery, passing showers, 3-5 mm further rain, becoming a bit colder with lows 4-7 C. Winds decreasing later to WSW 30-50 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Breezy to windy (WSW 40-60 km/hr), a bit fresher and cooler with passing showers, some with hail or thunder. Morning lows near 5 C and highs 8-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, some sunny intervals but increasing high cloud, drizzle or light rain edging north onto south coast, rather chilly. Morning lows -1 to 3 C with patchy frost and icy roads, and afternoon highs 7-9 C. Rain and stronger winds arriving by evening.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain developing from early morning, risk of some strong winds, probably northeast backing to northwest, depending on storm track (from south). Highs 7 to 10 C. A rather raw day due to the wind and occasional rain.

MONDAY ... Further rain turning rather sleety over high ground, snow on summits, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cold most of next week in north to northeast winds, any precip could be mixed or sleety, widespread frosts at night, chilly days with highs 5-7 C. There is some chance of snow in the period although it does look somewhat marginal so far, away from higher elevations.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Showers heaviest in southwest Scotland, stormy over Irish Sea incl Isle of Man, north Wales, elsewhere, showers at times with strong southerly winds at times, about 20-30 mm rainfalls in total north, 5-15 mm south and highs near 12 or 13 C in south, 8-11 C in Scotland.

TONIGHT ... Windy with squally showers, lows 5-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy with showers, a bit cooler, highs 8-10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Some sunshine Saturday, showers more isolated in north then becoming windy and wet on Sunday, and risk of strong winds developing if the storm is both intense enough and tracks into Britain from Biscay. Highs near 10 C and some heavy rainfalls west and north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Colder and possibly a bit on the wintry side in eastern regions, as the main thrust of colder air will be across the North Sea and into central Europe.

Forecasts for North America

In the U.S. where today is Thanksgiving Day, mild and sunny (13-15 C) across parts of the east and south central states ahead of a strong cold front with showers and a few storms developing west of Chicago to Kansas City, turning sharply colder in the northern plains states with light snow, snow ending further north and bitterly cold (-10 to -15 C). My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy with drizzle or light rain at times, highs near 11 C.

M.T. Cranium · 23-11-2012 8:43am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 23 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERTS for a few heavy falls of hail in western counties today giving locally dangerous road conditions, and then widespread slippery or icy road conditions later tonight and Saturday morning to about 10 a.m. in some sheltered valleys.

TODAY ... Breezy to windy (WSW 40-60 km/hr), a bit fresher and cooler with passing showers, some with hail or thunder. These showers will be quite frequent in Connacht and may merge into longer periods of rain, giving about 10-15 mm rainfalls. Ulster and west Munster will have 5-10 mm rainfalls from occasional showers and Leinster may be somewhat drier (3-7 mm). Cold in the wind with highs only 7-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending, clearing, patchy to widespread frost and icy roads developing, lows about -3 C in some inland valleys, -1 C closer to the coast and in larger towns and cities, and +3 C in some coastal areas.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, some sunny intervals but increasing high cloud, drizzle or light rain edging north onto south coast, rather chilly. Morning lows -1 to 3 C with patchy frost and icy roads, and afternoon highs 7-9 C. Rain and stronger winds arriving by evening.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain developing from early morning to mid-morning in the southeast mainly, winds northeast backing to northwest 40-60 km/hr, and then a further outbreak of rain across the south mid-afternoon to evening, winds once again becoming easterly. Highs only 6 to 9 C making this a rather raw day due to the wind and occasional rain. Risk of sleet or snow on higher terrain (snow mainly near summit levels).

MONDAY ... Windy and cold, intervals of rain or hail turning rather sleety over high ground, snow possible in north above 400m, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C. Winds NNW 40-70 km/hr making it feel sub-freezing where exposed to the wind.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cold most of next week in north to northeast winds, any precip could be mixed or sleety, widespread frosts at night, chilly days with highs 5-7 C. There is some chance of snow in the period although it does look somewhat marginal so far, away from higher elevations. The models are currently showing a variety of possibilities from deep and almost wintry cold to a brief cool spell that quickly gives way to milder Atlantic air within a week, but the most reliable guidance is between these outliers and so we're probably looking at about a week to ten days of chilly weather with marginal chances for snow at times, and a very good chance of sharp frosts most nights. The average low from about Tuesday to the following weekend could be around -4 C so expect frequent episodes of slippery roads, lingering frost in the shade, and if any precipitation develops, mixed falls with a change from rain to snow at moderate elevations in the 200-300m range. My hunch is that this won't be as severe as the same time of year in 2010 and will give way to milder weather at times in December.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy with showers, a bit cooler, highs 8-10 C. Some hail especially in western regions.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing, some sharp frosts developing, lows -3 to +2 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Some sunshine Saturday, highs 6-9 C, showers more isolated in north then becoming windy and wet on Sunday, and strong winds developing from the southeast veering southwest 40-80 km/hr as the storm tracks into Britain from Biscay on Sunday early morning. Highs near 10 C and some heavy rainfalls west and north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Colder and possibly a bit on the wintry side in eastern regions, as the main thrust of colder air will be across the North Sea and into central Europe. Some snow could fall in the eastern counties of both Scotland and England and also in higher parts of Wales but lower down there will be mixed showers at times. The average highs will range from 7 C in the southwest to 2 C in parts of the northeast and north. Frost will become frequent although it may stay too overcast with sleety precip so that icy roads may be more significant than frost.

Forecasts for North America

A strong cold front is racing east through the Great Lakes and will be followed by snow squalls in strong westerly winds veering northwest later. Temperatures in southern Ontario and nearby parts of the U.S. will fall from near 10 C to near -2 C rather quickly later today. The east coast will remain mild until evening with showers developing after a mild, dry day (for the biggest shopping day of the year, "Black Friday" as Americans have a four-day holiday at present). Across western Canada (where it's a regular work day) the conditions are arctic with temperatures -15 C or lower and the snow has now moved well south into the plains states behind the sinking cold front. A very strong wind storm brushed past Vancouver Island earlier and is now moving into the Alaska panhandle but its effects on most of coastal BC and Washington has been moderate with a few wind gusts around 70 km/hr and periodic showers, these will continue today. My local weather on Thursday has been cloudy with light showers and chilly, highs about 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 24-11-2012 9:06am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 24 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT continues for icy roads this morning to about 1030h in more sheltered valleys. Watch for black ice conditions and poor visibility due to combined low sun angle and ground fog. A few places may see slippery roads again overnight especially north central counties.

TODAY ... Fog patches, frost slow to clear inland valleys, some sunny intervals away from south coast but increasing high cloud, drizzle or light rain edging north onto south coast mid-day, rather chilly for all regions. Temperatures near or below freezing in spots until 1030h, and highs 7-9 C. Rain and stronger winds arriving by evening in southeast.

TONIGHT ... Rain, gusty NE winds 30-60 km/hr across southeast, 5-15 mm mainly Wexford, Wicklow, Carlow, Waterford and south Kilkenny, possibly spreading to south Dublin. This rain will pull away before sunrise for most, and could turn to snow on higher slopes of Wicklow. Other regions partly cloudy and cold. Lows 4-7 C with the rain, and -2 to +3 C further north and west, some patchy ice on roads could develop inland north central valleys.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with a bit of mid-day sunshine mainly for the north, periods of rain ending by morning in the east and southeast, possibly spreading into east Ulster for a time; winds northeast backing to northwest 40-60 km/hr, falling off mid-day before a further outbreak of rain across the south (mainly south of Limerick to Carlow) mid-afternoon to evening, winds once again becoming easterly at about 20-40 km/hr. Highs only 6 to 9 C making this a rather raw day due to the wind and occasional rain in the south. Risk of sleet or snow on higher terrain (sticking snow mainly near summit levels).

MONDAY ... Windy and cold, intervals of rain or hail turning rather sleety over high ground, snow possible in north above 400m, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C. Winds NNW 40-70 km/hr making it feel sub-freezing where exposed to the wind.

TUESDAY ... Breezy and cold, isolated showers that may become mixed, lows near -3 C and highs near 6 C, winds N-NW 20-40 km/hr, somewhat greater chance of wintry showers in Connacht and west Ulster.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated wintry showers, cold. Lows near -3 C and highs near 6 C. An interval of sleet or rain may develop in west towards evening lasting overnight.

THURSDAY ... Sleet or rain turning to wet snow, a bit milder in west at first, turning colder again later. Lows near 2 C and highs near 5 C.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY OUTLOOK ... This period is rather uncertain with a wide spread in the models, but expect cold weather to continue with perhaps a scattering of wintry showers in east to northeast winds. The less probable outcome would be a gradual return to somewhat milder weather, but I think this may take its time returning, perhaps around 3-5 December. At the same time, I don't think this will be too severe a wintry period ahead, although in a few places snow may settle briefly, and there will be widespread sharp frosts. Temperatures will be 4-6 degrees below normal for the period.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Some sunshine at first, then rain arriving mid-day southwest to evening Midlands-Wales, moderate southeast winds 30-50 km/hr, rain amounts about 10-20 mm, showers more isolated in north then becoming windy and wet by tonight. Highs 7-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain, strong SW veering NW winds 40-70 km/hr, lows near 5 C in south, 2-4 C Scotland.

SUNDAY ... Windy and colder, rain may turn to sleet or hail in places, highs about 7 C south to 4 C north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Colder and possibly a bit on the wintry side in eastern regions, as the main thrust of colder air will be across the North Sea and into central Europe. Some snow could fall in the eastern counties of both Scotland and England as early as Monday and Tuesday, and also in higher parts of Wales but lower down there will be mixed showers at times. The average highs will range from 7 C in the southwest to 2 C in parts of the northeast and north. Frost will become frequent although it may stay too overcast with sleety precip so that icy roads may be more significant than frost.

Forecasts for North America

Windy and turning much colder in the northeast U.S. with showers coast, flurries inland; lake effect snow squalls in northwest winds near Great Lakes. Highs only -2 to +3 C inland to 4-7 C coast. Also rather cold further south although more sunshine and highs 7-10 C in blustery west to northwest winds. Trending to sub-freezing and then below -10 C in western Canada in this extensive arctic air mass that covers all but the western coastal margins of the continent and parts of far eastern Canada. Warm and dry in the southwest, trending to near normal further north along the coast ahead of a weak frontal trough that will bring in a modified portion of the cold air mass later today and overnight. My local weather on Friday was cloudy with light rain and highs 8-10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-11-2012 8:47am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 25 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals mid-day in the north, periods of rain ending by morning in east Ulster, but a new system spreading into west Munster, winds becoming easterly at about 20-40 km/hr. Rainfalls of about 10-20 mm in the south, trace to 3 mm north where outbreaks will be more isolated and showery. Some sleet or wet snow possible on higher terrain, some accumulations near summit levels. Highs only 6 to 9 C making this a rather raw day due to the wind and in some parts rain or sleet.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming sleety or turning to wet snow in some higher locations, still relatively dry in the north, isolated frost, lows 2-4 C south and about -2 to +2 C north. Further rainfalls 5-8 mm.

MONDAY ... Windy and cold, intervals of rain or hail turning rather sleety over high ground, snow possible in north above 400m, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C. Winds NE (in Ulster and Leinster) to NNW (western regions) 40-70 km/hr making it feel sub-freezing where exposed to the wind. Some locally heavy wintry showers possible in hills of north and northwest.

TUESDAY ... Breezy and cold, isolated showers that may become mixed, lows near -3 C and highs near 6 C, winds N-NW 20-40 km/hr, somewhat greater chance of wintry showers in Connacht and west Ulster.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated wintry showers, cold. Lows near -3 C and highs near 6 C. An interval of sleet or rain may develop in west towards evening lasting overnight. We will be watching this situation for a possible snowfall event but conditions look rather marginal at present.

THURSDAY ... Sleet or rain turning to wet snow, a bit milder in west at first, turning colder again later. Lows near 2 C and highs near 5 C.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY OUTLOOK ... This period is rather uncertain with a wide spread in the models, but expect cold weather to continue with perhaps a scattering of wintry showers in east to northeast winds. Some of the models have snow or sleet producing potential around next weekend but it may just turn out to be a rather marginal or elevation-based event. Moderate northeast winds will eventually give way to somewhat milder northwesterlies in early December and it could turn a lot milder around the 7th to 10th of December. No specific guidance yet for the Christmas period but I could mention that my research model indicates a rather mild and drizzly pattern, let's hope that gives way to snow closer to the event.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Very windy and turning colder, rain may turn to sleet or hail in places, winds from west at about 70-110 km/hr across the south, north backing to northwest across eastern Scotland, 60-90 km/hr, but much less stormy in western Scotland with northerly breezes 30-60 km/hr there. Not much precip in the far northwest either, but further rainfalls of 20-30 mm in parts of eastern England. Across the south the rain will end shortly turning to drizzle or brief showers in gale force westerly winds, temperatures slowly falling to about 4-6 C then steady through the evening as winds drop off. The strongest gusts will be in East Anglia (to 120 km/hr) and near the Channel coast (to 110 km/hr), about 80-100 km/hr in most other parts of southern England.

TONIGHT ... Much less windy but further outbreaks of rain (sleet or wet snow on higher terrain), cold with lows about 3-4 C. About 10-15 mm rain in southwest, 3-7 mm in southeast, lesser amounts further north where some places dry. Isolated frost or freezing fog from Yorkshire north.

MONDAY ... Windy and cold with rain south, snow or sleet in parts of central and northern England, eastern Scotland, dry and some sunny intervals in parts of Wales, northwest England and western Scotland. Highs generally about 5-7 C south to 2-4 C north. Snow largely melting on contact or slushy, some hail or sleet likely too. Winds NE 40-70 km/hr adding chill.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY ... Generally cold, some outbreaks of sleet or snow, rain only likely in southwest and greater London. Highs about 5 C on average, overnight lows -2 to +2 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Greater risk of snow around weekend of 1-2 December then a bit milder.

Forecasts for North America

Cold and windy eastern regions, outbreaks of light snow near the Great Lakes, to sunshine further south towards Georgia and the Gulf coast. Highs about freezing in the Great Lakes, 5 C northeast coastal cities, 10-15 C mid-Atlantic states and 15-20 C southeast. Warm and breezy in southern plains states about as far north as Denver CO, colder air seeping in from northeast across the northern Rockies ending a warm spell in Wyoming and Nebraska. Very cold across the Canadian west and turning colder near the coast, outbreaks of light snow across the mountains.

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy with a lot of towering cumulus cloud, not much activity from it however, and a high of about 9 C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-11-2012 8:52pm

UPDATE _ Sunday 25 November 2012 _ 6 p.m.
__________________________________________

Scattered areas of rain across the south and east will weaken gradually but some areas could see 5-10 mm further by midnight. Upper air soundings suggest that snow could fall on higher slopes of the Wicklow Mountains mainly above 500m before this system pulls away late tonight.

Although Monday and Tuesday will be generally dry and cold, a few areas appear prone to mixed wintry showers, notably Donegal, Derry, Sligo, Leitrim and Mayo in the northwest, and coastal Wicklow possibly up to south Dublin where "Irish Sea streamers" could brush the coast.

Precipitation in these showers will likely be mixtures of rain and hail near sea level, sleet about 150-300m above sea level, and snow above that, so there could be coatings of snow at times in higher elevations. However, we should stress that large portions of Ireland will remain dry as these showers will only be covering perhaps 10 per cent of the land mass and probably a smaller percentage of the population depending on how Dublin fares. What will be more widespread are both morning frost and icy road sections. There will also be quite a cold north wind in exposed locations.

Wednesday looks to be a mainly dry and cold day, then towards evening and overnight a frontal wave will attempt to push the colder air back and may succeed in bringing milder air into west Munster for a time but further north and east there could be a band of mixed precipitation lasting into part of Thursday.

From that point on, the "GFS" model is continuing to advertise a good potential for wintry weather but it seems that most of the other guidance has shifted back to a milder scenario so the more likely outcome by about next weekend would be a return to milder weather around 8-10 C with at least some rain. However, stay tuned because this model disagreement may only just be getting started.

M.T. Cranium · 26-11-2012 8:29am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 26 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and cold, intervals of rain or hail turning rather sleety over high ground, snow possible in north above 300m and southeast above 400m, highs near 7 C. Heavier mixed showers will be largely confined to two regions, one in the southeast near the Wicklow coast (possibly including Dublin at times) and the other in north Connacht and west Ulster. In both cases these will be enhanced streamers coming in from either the Irish Sea or the Atlantic, in converging wind flows NE (in Ulster and Leinster) to NNW (western regions) 40-70 km/hr making it feel sub-freezing where exposed to the wind. Brief sunny intervals could appear in the centre of the country between these streamers, and mixed showers could appear in other locations but the more organized bands will give more significant amounts in the range of 5 to 15 mm (which translates to 5-15 cm snow on high ground and mixtures of hail, sleet and rain lower down).

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, windy and cold with further mixed showers possible, in roughly the same areas as today, winds NNE 30-50 km/hr, lows from zero to 3 C for most, and it could fall below freezing well inland with patchy ice developing on untreated road surfaces.

TUESDAY ... Breezy and cold, some sunshine at times with further showers in bands near east and north coasts, that may again become mixed hail or sleet, hill snow ... highs near 6 C, winds N-NW 20-40 km/hr, somewhat greater chance of wintry showers in Connacht and west Ulster.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated wintry showers, cold. Some longer sunny intervals could develop despite rather extensive higher cloud from a distant warm front out to the west. Lows near -3 C and highs near 6 C except 7-10 C in west Munster. An interval of sleet or rain may develop in west towards evening lasting overnight. We will be watching this situation for a possible snowfall event but conditions look rather marginal at present.

THURSDAY ... Sleet or rain turning to wet snow, a bit milder in west at first, turning colder again later. Lows near 2 C and highs near 5 C except 7-10 C in west Munster.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, cool, possible sleet or light rain, hill snow. Lows near -1 C and highs near 6 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The trend on all models is to a milder outcome and even the GFS which was most "bullish" on wintry cold has backed off for the time being although it wants to bring in this colder air during the following week; other models have the look of a full return to milder westerlies and quite strong westerly winds may develop around 3-5 December.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Rather windy and cold with rain southeast, mixed rain and snow or sleet in parts of central and northern England, eastern Scotland, dry and some sunny intervals in parts of Midlands and south central England at first, followed by scattered mixed wintry showers, and variable cloud for northwest England and western Scotland, isolated showers, some further rain in Wales trending to snow above 500m. Highs generally about 5-7 C south to 2-4 C north. Snow largely melting on contact or slushy, some hail or sleet likely too. Winds SE 40-60 km/hr this morning in London region becoming NE later today, otherwise generally NE to N 40-70 km/hr adding chill.

TONIGHT ... Rain or sleet becoming more showery, some accumulating snow on hills, lows 2-4 C. Winds NNE 40-70 km/hr in exposed locations making it feel sub-zero (about -5 C wind chills). Some parts of central Scotland may see sharp frosts as skies partially clear there.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY ... Generally cold, some outbreaks of sleet or snow, rain only likely in southwest and greater London. Highs about 5 C on average, overnight lows -2 to +2 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It may also turn milder in most of Britain but could take a day longer to escape the colder air and it won't be far away before seeping back during early December; sooner or later there may be severe cold from this pattern as it locks into the Baltic region which should help to establish snow cover in parts of the continent, a necessary "building block" for eventual wintry conditions in Britain (and so forth, for Ireland eventually).

Forecasts for North America

Today will be generally quite cold across southern Canada and adjacent parts of the U.S., due to extensive arctic high pressure in the prairies, with weak secondary cells strung out further east. The storm track will be setting up across the Ohio valley and coastal northeast states today and Tuesday, which is good because yours truly is scheduled to fly from Vancouver to Toronto and then Ottawa, then back home, during the next two days (don't ask). I hope to maintain the forecasts but they may appear a bit earlier than usual. Anyway, while today remains colder than normal in many areas, it is also quite mild in Texas and some parts of the south, ahead of a developing rain event that will turn to ice and snow in the Ohio valley tonight, and may bring snow to New York City on Tuesday.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy and chilly with highs near 6 C.

M.T. Cranium · 27-11-2012 6:25am

UPDATE _ Tues 27 Nov 0530h

MTC is in transit and only has enough time to report that forecast is generally on the same course as earlier, with the note that the mixed precip event advertised for early Thursday may take most of Thursday now to develop.

I hope one of my regular helpers will update more comprehensively later today or perhaps I will get a chance. Have a great day.

Wolfe_IRE · 27-11-2012 11:30am

I have amended MT's forecast of yesterday to reflect current model output.

Tuesday, 27 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy and cold, some sunshine at times with further showers in bands near east and north coasts, that may become mixed hail or sleet. A threat of wintry showers in Connacht and w
est Ulster also.Highs near 6 C, winds N-NW 20-40 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Further scattered showers in coastal parts of the east, north and west. Turning very cold with temperatures ranging -3c to +3c, coldest in sheltered inland locations. NW winds moderating.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated wintry showers, cold. Some longer sunny intervals could develop despite rather extensive higher cloud from a distant warm front out to the west. Lows near -3 C and highs near 6 C except 7-10 C in west Munster.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ... A sharp to severe frost on Wednesday night with temperatures dipping to -3 or -4c in parts of the Midlands where freezing fog will set in. A little milder in coastal areas.

THURSDAY ... An interval of rain or sleet will develop in the west in the late morning before slowly pushing eastward. Lows near 3 C and highs near 5 C, except 7-10 C in west Munster and west Connacht. Scattered outbreaks of rain and sleet will continue overnight on Thursday, keeping temperatures from falling below freezing in most parts. Coolest in inland Munster and the north Midlands on Thursday night.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, cool with scattered outbreaks of light rain or sleet and hill snow slowly dying out during the morning in eastern parts. Winds N, later turning NW. Showers affecting northern and western counties. Daytime highs near 6-9 C, mildest in the west. Overnight lows near -1 C in inland parts of Ulster, Leinster and East Munster. Temperatures staying above freezing elsewhere.

SATURDAY ... Scattered light rain or sleet showers affecting northern and western coastal districts again on Saturday but a largely bright day with good sunny spells everywhere. Staying cool overall with daytime highs of 2 to 9c, coolest in sheltered inland locations in Leinster and Ulster and mildest in southwest Munster and West Connacht. Temperatures dropping to freezing or slightly below in the east and north on Saturday night but remaining above freezing in the western parts.

OUTLOOK ... The trend on all models is to a milder and less settled outcome. There will not be a significant rise in temperatures but it will feel less cold in WNW, later W winds. Scattered outbreaks of rain at times and becoming breezier than of late.

M.T. Cranium · 27-11-2012 3:58pm

Thanks, Wolfe, I am now in Ottawa where it is about a hundred degrees colder than in Vancouver (well not really, maybe ten). This has frozen my brain which I carry around in a jar since, well you know, so it is good to see a forecast already presented. I will resume normal service around 0900h Wed 28th, full moon by the way occurs tomorrow (14:47 UT or z or GMT, about at sunrise where I live and may in fact be by then. My buke says that we are to enjoy a penumbral eclipse which I guess means that the moon narrowly misses the umbra or shadow of the earth and turns a shade of slight red, if there would be clear skies at my home base on Wed morning I may stumble out to have a look (it would be 0647h so quite dark, but most likely to be overcast anyway) ... I don't have the data handy but would imagine that the moon then moves past Jupiter a few hours later as IIRC we pass Jupiter on 2-3 December or so. You will have a good view of that if skies are clear Wednesday night.

Could see Venus from window of plane even half an hour after sunrise this morning flying into Ottawa which is "colder than a blank blank" whatever you folks like to say, have heard a few different endings for that around the land, most of them having to do with odd parts of the anatomy of various beings. Apparently once upon a time pilots took evasive action thinking Venus was an oncoming aircraft (before dawn) which must have led to an interesting conversation at job performance review.

M.T. Cranium · 28-11-2012 12:02pm

UPDATE _ Wed 28 Nov 2012 _ 1100h
_____________________________________

Greetings, I will reboot the forecast thread in stages, having gotten back from my rushed trip at a very late hour (here). Just a few highlights for now:

An alert is issued for possible icy roads tonight and through parts of Thursday in counties north-south from Donegal and Sligo southeast to Carlow, a zone that will probably stay in the colder air much longer than further west. Overnight it will cloud over and some drizzle may begin in the west, but a more wintry scenario could develop through the day Thursday as the drizzle begins to fall into sub-freezing temperatures near the surface. Some freezing fog or light freezing rain could make roads quite icy in the central counties, the effects further east will be less severe unless one or two places develop freezing fog tonight.

This rather weak system will tend to drift east and dissipate over the course of Friday, but it will stay rather cold to about Sunday.

As indicated, will be rebooting the full forecast package later on, my weather experience earlier on Tuesday was sunny and cold in Ontario, then flew over extensive low cloud with a few breaks all the way from Toronto to almost Vancouver where the vixibility is better, the full moon can be seen inside a weak lunar halo.

M.T. Cranium · 29-11-2012 8:12am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 29 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for icy or slippery roads in many parts of Ireland this morning, in particular west-central (mostly inland) with freezing fog, freezing drizzle or sleet producing slick road (and pavement) surfaces. These conditions may improve in some parts by afternoon but will return shortly after sunset.

TODAY ... Rain and somewhat milder on the west coast, 3-7 mm, south winds veering to westerly 20-40 km/hr then increasing to northwest 30-50 km/hr; highest temperatures 5-8 C near the coast ... freezing drizzle, sleet, and patchy freezing fog further inland covering large parts of west-central Ireland, as well as some parts of the east where the freezing fog will be more prevalent. Highest temperatures will be generally 3-5 C in other parts of Ireland away from the west coast but some inland valleys could stay even colder (near -1 C). If any sunshine develops it would be most likely in north and east, low cloud might partially obscure the sun. The combination of fog and ice with low sun angle can be very dangerous for driving. Amounts of actual precipitation away from the rain will be generally 2-4 mm at most. Some sleet and hill snow is possible but amounts will be slight.

TONIGHT ... Extensive freezing drizzle, freezing fog with lows -3 to -1 C, but somewhat milder near west and north coasts in a moderate NW wind. Patchy sleet or snow possible on higher terrain. Any locations that clear briefly could see lows of -5 C and dense freezing fog later towards sunrise.

FRIDAY ... Staying quite cold for most, but less widespread freezing drizzle or rain, just a brief interval of mixed precip for east Ulster towards evening, and patchy outbreaks of 1-2 mm drizzle with highs about 3-5 C on average, some valleys colder, and some coastal locations milder (to 8 C).

SATURDAY ... A cold and frosty start, freezing fog in valleys, lows -5 to -2 C then partly cloudy, a bit milder for most during the day, highs 6-9 C, although a few spots could stay colder where fog fails to clear ... some drizzle or mist near west coast by evening.

SUNDAY ... Another rather cold morning, but frost and ice dissipating fairly quickly, lows -3 to +2 C, then variable cloud, followed by periods of rain in a moderate southwest wind, highest temperatures of 7-10 C likely to occur during the evening or overnight.

MONDAY ... Milder and rather windy with showers, some heavy at times, rainfalls about 10-20 mm. Lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C. Winds WSW at 50-80 km/hr.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Windy and rather mild, westerlies 70-100 km/hr at times, severe gusts may develop in Connacht and west Ulster ... highs around 9 or 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... A somewhat colder trend will develop in northwest winds and mixed showers could result, but highs will stay well above freezing at 5-7 C. Nights may once again become rather frosty with scattered ice and frost inland.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Mostly clear above any low-level cloud and fog, some sunshine will get through the murk, and a few sleety showers could fall in weak streamers coming inland from the North Sea in a moderate northerly flow. Highs about 4 to 6 C for most, colder in some valleys where dense fog fails to clear.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals but widespread freezing fog, freezing drizzle and icy roads, lows -7 to -4 C away from somewhat warmer large cities (-2 C) and coasts.

FRIDAY ... Little change, partly to mostly cloudy with ice fog and some freezing drizzle at colder times of day and in some valleys mid-day, highs around 2-5 C.

OUTLOOK ... The cold spell will slowly fade out over the weekend although there will be considerable fog and mist, highs 5-7 C then next week's trend will be similar to the forecast above for Ireland, milder and windy at times.

Forecasts for North America

Large portions of the U.S. (excluding Alaska and Hawaii) are under the control of sprawling high pressure with temperatures trending from below normal (around 5-7 C for highs) in the east to near or above in the west, but Oregon and Washington along with B.C. are under cloud, rain and strong south to southwest winds. There are outbreaks of light snow across most of western Canada well north of the international border, 2-5 cm amounts and some freezing fog. A very weak frontal wave near Lake Michigan will spread light snow or freezing drizzle into the eastern Great Lakes and towards the inland northeast states later. My local weather on Wednesday has been damp to wet and mild with moderate south winds, high of about 7 C.

Astronomy note: Sorry about the disruptions to my forecast "blog" in recent days, the full moon came and went earlier at 14:47h Wed and the Moon has just moved past Jupiter as of 0100h today.

M.T. Cranium · 30-11-2012 8:03am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 30 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for icy or slippery roads in some parts of Ireland this morning, in particular north to east-central (mostly inland) with freezing fog, freezing drizzle or sleet producing slick road (and pavement) surfaces. These conditions will improve in some parts by afternoon but will return shortly after sunset. Tonight and Saturday's conditions may be more severe, allow extra time if travelling tonight or Saturday morning.

TODAY ... Staying quite cold for most, but less widespread freezing drizzle or rain, mostly rain today as temperatures rise a few degrees above freezing ... this rain will move south mostly in central districts, dissipating towards afternoon, followed by a brief interval of mixed precip for east Ulster towards evening, otherwise patchy outbreaks of 1-3 mm rain or drizzle with highs about 3-5 C on average, some valleys colder, and some coastal locations milder (to 8 C).

TONIGHT ... Sleety showers ending, clearing followed by freezing fog inland, some very icy roads will develop. Lows -5 to -2 C for most, 1-4 C coastal margins and central Dublin.

SATURDAY ... A cold and frosty start, freezing fog in valleys as morning temperatures stay around -2 C then partly cloudy, a bit milder for most during the day, highs 6-9 C, although a few spots could stay colder where fog fails to clear ... some drizzle or mist near west coast by evening.

SUNDAY ... Another rather cold morning for Ulster and north Leinster, but frost and ice dissipating fairly quickly, lows -3 to +2 C, otherwise turning milder with sleet turning to rain during morning west, lows 2-4 C, followed by periods of rain in a moderate southwest wind, highest temperatures of 7-10 C likely to occur during the evening or overnight. Winds veering westerly by evening, rain ending.

MONDAY ... Clear intervals early morning, some risk of freezing fog returning well inland, lows -2 to +3 C, but the day turning milder and rather windy with showers, some heavy at times, rainfalls about 10-20 mm and highs 9-10 C. Winds rising late in day to reach WSW at 50-80 km/hr.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Windy and rather mild, westerlies 70-100 km/hr at times, severe gusts may develop in Connacht and west Ulster ... highs around 9 or 10 C Tuesday, 6-8 C Wednesday. Winds more northerly by end of period, mixed showers possible in north.

OUTLOOK ... A somewhat colder trend will develop in northwest winds and mixed showers could result, but highs will stay well above freezing at 5-7 C. Nights may once again become rather frosty with scattered ice and frost inland. Eventually higher pressure may force the storm track south and by the following week, some easterly flows could produce wintry mixed precip or sleet, as some days will not be much warmer than freezing.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Little change, some sunshine at first in south (Midlands-Thames valley) then partly to mostly cloudy with ice fog and some freezing drizzle at colder times of day and in some valleys mid-day, highs around 2-5 C. Sleety showers possible in Wales, southwest England, and in northerly breezes off the North Sea, extending about 30-50 kms inland before dissipating. Scattered instances of poor visibility, slippery to icy roads, allow extra time for road journeys, with reduced speeds likely.

OUTLOOK ... The cold spell will slowly fade out over the weekend although there will be considerable fog and mist, highs 5-7 C then next week's trend will be similar to the forecast above for Ireland, milder and windy at times until a colder turn by Thursday 6th December. Very strong westerly winds may develop in western Scotland around Monday night and Tuesday.

Forecasts for North America

West coast mild and windy with rain, mountain snows, as far south as central California. Amounts not too heavy except in northern CA and southern OR where peaks around Mount Shasta could be buried in 70 cms or more of fresh snow. The moisture also feeds into light snowfall across western Canada, about 3-7 cm typical in SK and MB. South of that, the weather is largely dry if cloudy, and milder towards the central plains which will easily reach 10-15 C today. Texas and desert southwest will be close to 20 C. A weak front through the Great Lakes will produce drizzle or wet snow, with temperatures about 5 C south and -10 C north of this front -- despite that, the dynamics are weak as it's basically two strong highs with a windshift separating them.

My local weather is very mild even at this late hour (11 pm) the temperature is around 12 C with light rain and a balmy south wind. After the last few days, there is a pretty good chance I am only dreaming this anyway. :cool:

M.T. Cranium · 01-12-2012 7:38am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 1 December, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for icy or slippery roads in some parts of Ireland tonight, in particular north to east-central (mostly inland) with freezing fog producing slick road (and pavement) surfaces. These conditions will improve by about 10:00h, sooner towards the midwest as milder air moves in faster there.

TODAY ... Patchy freezing fog in valleys as morning temperatures stay around freezing, also some fog at temperatures above freezing becoming partly cloudy, a bit milder for most during the day, highs 6-9 C ... isolated drizzle or light mixed showers possible during the day.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals east and north, cloudy south and west ... freezing fog may develop especially inland east and north, lows -3 to +2 C but milder south and west, lows 3-6 C, rain developing there.

SUNDAY ... Rain moving east may start as sleet or freezing drizzle further east mid-day, before milder air flushes all of the cold air out of valleys. Periods of rain giving 5-15 mm in a moderate southwest wind 30-60 km/hr, hill fog and snow on summits, for most lower elevations highest temperatures of 7-10 C likely to occur during the evening before falling back towards 2-3 C overnight into Monday. Winds veering westerly by evening, rain ending with partial clearing. It will feel very cold until late in the rainfall event as the cold air will take some time to scour out.

MONDAY ... Clear intervals early morning, some risk of freezing fog returning well inland, lows -1 to +3 C, but the day turning milder again, and rather windy with showers, some heavy at times with hail or thunder, rainfalls about 10-20 mm and highs 9-10 C. Winds rising late in day to reach WSW at 50-80 km/hr.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Windy and feeling cold especially north, due to westerlies of 60-80 km/hr at times, strong gusts may develop in Connacht and west Ulster, elsewhere, winds 30-60 km/hr ... highs around 9 or 10 C Tuesday, 6-8 C Wednesday. Winds more northerly by end of period, mixed showers possible in north.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Dry and chilly with frosts and some freezing fog returning, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 5-8 C each day. Some limited sunshine in a few western and southern inland areas.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat milder conditions may follow towards the second week in December in a west to northwest anticyclonic type flow, and my research suggests it could get quite windy around the 12th-14th although the models have not picked up much on that at this time range.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few mixed or sleety showers but not much accumulation, some lingering fog and frost east-central inland. Cold with any weak sunshine not making much of an impact, highs 3-6 C.

TONIGHT ... Widespread fog and freezing fog, some freezing drizzle, lows about -5 to -2 C except milder in northwest with showers near coast.

SUNDAY ... Sleet or wet snow in some parts, turning to a steady rain late in the day, temperatures gradually rising to about 6-8 C by evening in a moderate southwest wind of 30-60 km/hr.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Windy, a bit milder, showers. Highs 8-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning cold again mid-week, frost and fog returning.

Forecasts for North America

Cold and sunny (near -5 C) in parts of eastern Canada and New England, cloudy further south ahead of somewhat milder air reaching the Ohio valley and mid-Atlantic states during the day, bringing highs up to 8-10 C ... patchy snow across western Canada, heavier in parts of Alberta and central-northern B.C., mild with rain and fog near coast, highs there 10-12 C. Mild and dry for large sections of the south-central U.S., highs 18-21 C.

My local weather on Friday was mild with heavy rain at times, highs near 10 C and rainfalls of about 30-50 mm.

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2012 8:43am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 2 December, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT continued for icy or slippery roads in parts of north Leinster and east Ulster to 1030h as milder air moves slowly east, rain will fall on frozen surfaces and the poor driving or walking conditions could last until mid-day despite temperatures rising above freezing.

TODAY ... Rain, starting as sleet or freezing drizzle in the north and east, will last a few hours before partial clearing, then another band of rather heavy showers will sweep across the country this evening. Rainfall totals 5-15 mm in a moderate southwest wind 30-60 km/hr, with hill fog and snow on summits, for most lower elevations highest temperatures of 7-10 C likely to occur during the evening before falling back towards 2-3 C overnight into Monday. Winds veering westerly by evening.

TONIGHT ... Evening heavy showers clearing east coast by midnight, clearing will follow, winds westerly 30-50 km/hr, lows 1-3 C but risk of patchy ice or frost in a few inland valleys by sunrise. (Astronomy note -- tonight the earth passes Jupiter around 0200h 3rd).

MONDAY ... Clear intervals early morning, some risk of freezing fog returning well inland, but the day turning milder again, and rather windy with showers, some heavy at times with hail or thunder, rainfalls about 10-20 mm and highs 9-10 C. Winds rising late in day to reach WSW at 50-80 km/hr in exposed coastal locations, otherwise 40-60 km/hr.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Windy and feeling cold especially north, due to westerlies of 60-80 km/hr at times, strong gusts may develop in Connacht and west Ulster, elsewhere, winds 30-60 km/hr ... highs around 9 or 10 C Tuesday, 6-8 C Wednesday. Winds more northerly by end of period, mixed showers possible in north.

THURSDAY ... The forecast has shifted here to periods of rain and strong west to northwest winds at 50-80 km/hr, highs near 8 C, rainfalls about 10 or 15 mm, and some risk of sleet or snow by nightfall in northern regions.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, sleety or mixed wintry showers, cold. Highs near 5 or 6 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Cold and partly cloudy to sunny with frosts lasting well into the daytime in shaded locations. Highs 3-6 C, some lows around -5.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat milder conditions may follow towards the second week in December in a west to northwest anticyclonic type flow, and my research suggests it could get quite windy around the 12th-14th although the models have not picked up much on that at this time range. There is some hint of this storm going south but would expect that to change.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Severe frost or ice in some southern and central districts this morning, with sleet or wet snow breaking out in some parts, mostly west at first, turning to a steady rain late in the day, temperatures gradually rising to about 6-8 C by evening in a moderate southwest wind of 30-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Milder than recent nights, breezy to windy, showers, lows 3-5 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Windy, a bit milder, showers. Highs 8-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning cold again mid-week, frost and fog returning, with an interval of mixed rain and snow possible (mostly rain southwest) around Thursday night or Friday morning.

Forecasts for North America

Milder for the northeast as some rain or sleet moves through southern Ontario into northern New England. Highs to 15 C in some places, but 3-7 C north of the oncoming front, meanwhile very mild in most of the central and northern states ahead of a strong low in Idaho bringing snow into the B.C. Rockies and central Alberta (chinook near U.S. border and throughout Montana). Mild with heavy rain at times west coast from central California to southern B.C., heavy mountain snows at highest elevations only. My weather on Saturday was cloudy with more rain, not too heavy, and highs about 10C.

M.T. Cranium · 03-12-2012 8:41am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 3 December, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

MONDAY ... Becoming rather windy with any sunshine giving way to cloud and showers, some heavy at times with hail or thunder, rainfalls about 10-20 mm and highs 9-11 C. Winds rising late in day to reach WSW at 50-80 km/hr in exposed coastal locations, otherwise 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with a few more showers, some rather wintry on higher ground in the north, although some other places staying dry, lows about 2-5 C on average, with slight risk of isolated frost and icy roads most likely in higher parts of north.

TUESDAY ... Windy and turning colder (W to NW 40-70 km/hr, some higher gusts possible in northwest), squally showers may become mixed or wintry over higher parts of north. Highs 5-8 C mildest in southeast. Further rainfalls about 5-8 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... Cold and breezy with passing wintry showers in north, longer dry intervals elsewhere, some sunshine ... morning lows -2 to +3 C with some ice and frost, afternoon highs 5-8 C. Winds northerly 30-50 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... A cold start with widespread frost, risk of ice or freezing drizzle before milder air with rain arrives later in the day, winds increasing to westerly 50-80 km/hr. Morning lows -4 to -1 C and afternoon-evening highs about 8-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy with mixed wintry showers for some parts of north, cold rain or hail showers further south, winds NW 40-70 km/hr, temperatures steady in the range 4-6 C possibly falling below that in north.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY OUTLOOK ... At this point the weekend is looking rather cold in a continued unsettled northwest to northerly flow, highs near 5 C, and slight frosts with icy roads in the usual places overnight and morning. A very cold high may settle in during part of the week before milder air returns later but we should note that about a week ago, the models were over-estimating how strong the arctic air mass might become, so there's some chance that forecasts will back off to continual unsettled cool rather than cold weather. In the longer term, it seems to me that a spell of severe wintry weather is almost inevitable this winter, given how widespread below normal temperatures have become to the east, but I continue to think the best chance for this is later January and February. Cold spells this month might not be that deep or long-lasting although the month could average a bit below normal (although I have said elsewhere that I am expecting very mild weather for a few days around Christmas).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy, and milder than previous days especially for eastern sections, with frequent showers. Highs 8-10 C. Winds WSW 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Breezy, milder than previous nights, lows 3-6 C. Showers and some hill fog.

TUESDAY ... Windy, squally showers, turning much colder late in day in Scotland and northern England. Highs before that 8-10 C. Winds W to NW at about 50-80 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and colder with mixed wintry showers, hill snow. Winds northerly 40-70 km/hr, highs 4-7 C.

THURDAY ... Cold and sunny to start, severe frost and some ice fog, morning lows around -5 C then intervals of snow, sleet or rain turning milder very late in the day and only west of the M6. Highs there 6-8 C but staying near 2-4 further east.

FRIDAY ... Windy with heavy showers, turning sleety as winds veer from west to northwest, snow on hills by late in the day. Highs 7-9 C early in south.

OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same general comments apply.

Forecasts for North America

Very mild now in all eastern and most central regions of the U.S. and adjacent southeast Canada with highs 12-16 C in the Great Lakes region and 16-20 C further south, ahead of areas of rain changing to sleet and snow near southern Manitoba and a heavy snowfall across the rest of the prairies today, in northeast winds of 50-80 km/hr and temperatures falling to -15C.

Heavy rain on the west coast with a new frontal wave approaching later today, foggy ahead of this, mild. Highs near 10 C. My local weather on Sunday was brighter than previous days although mostly cloudy, and rain was sporadic and rather light.

M.T. Cranium · 04-12-2012 8:25am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 4 December, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for slippery or icy roads in some parts of central Ireland by Wednesday morning.

TODAY ... Becoming windy and turning colder around mid-day west, late afternoon east as winds veer W to NW 40-70 km/hr, with some higher gusts possible in northwest mid-day, squally showers rather frequent in northwest and scattered elsewhere, may become mixed or wintry over higher parts of north. Hail showers could develop almost anywhere mid-day, slight risk of thunder. Highs 5-8 C mildest in southeast. Further rainfalls about 5-8 mm.

TONIGHT ... Less windy and becoming very cold with just a few residual wintry showers, most of them near Donegal Bay but a few brief sleet or hail showers in other locations. Clear skies could develop after midnight well inland, lows will fall to -2 to +3 C with freezing fog or frost and icy roads possible well inland.

WEDNESDAY ... Cold and breezy with passing wintry showers in north, longer dry intervals elsewhere, some sunshine ... morning lows -2 to +3 C with some ice and frost, afternoon highs 5-8 C. Winds northerly 30-50 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... A cold start in the east and south with widespread frost, risk of ice or freezing drizzle most likely before dawn before milder air with rain arrives later in the morning, winds increasing to westerly 50-80 km/hr. Morning lows -4 to -1 C and afternoon-evening highs about 8-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy with mixed wintry showers for some parts of north, cold rain or hail showers further south, winds NW 40-70 km/hr, temperatures steady in the range 4-6 C possibly falling below that in north. There could be some accumulations of snow on hills in Donegal, Mayo and nearby counties.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY OUTLOOK ... The weekend is still looking rather cold in a continued unsettled northwest to northerly flow, highs near 5 C, and slight frosts with icy roads in the usual places overnight and morning. A very cold high may settle in during Sunday and Monday before slightly milder air returns later (around 10th-12th), after which there may be a battle between colder air lurking over the Baltic regions and suppressed Atlantic storm systems trying to follow their usual path but finding that blocked, reforming near the south coast and into the Channel and northern France. This could lead to some mixed wintry precip around the energy peak of the new moon 12th-13th and for a few days thereafter. I expect that cold spell to be moderate in comparison to what may come later (or Dec 2010) and look for an upward trend in temperatures towards Christmas as the Atlantic begins to reassert itself (for a while).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy, lines of squally showers with some dry spells between them, rather mild but turning much colder late in day in Scotland and northern England. Highs before the cold air arrives about 8-10 C. Winds W to NW at about 50-80 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Windy and colder, mixed wintry showers, some slippery roads from hail and later frost or ice in sheltered inland areas, lows -2 to +3 C, winds W-NW 40-70 km/hr, becoming N 30-50 km/hr in western districts towards morning.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and colder with mixed wintry showers, hill snow. Winds northerly 40-70 km/hr, highs 4-7 C. Sunshine at times in west but squally local hail or snow showers coming off the Irish Sea in north Wales and further south into Somerset, Devon.

THURSDAY ... Cold and sunny to start, severe frost and some ice fog, morning lows around -5 C then intervals of snow, sleet or rain turning milder very late in the day and only west of the M6. Highs there 6-8 C but staying near 2-4 further east.

FRIDAY ... Windy with heavy showers, turning sleety as winds veer from west to northwest, snow on hills by late in the day. Highs 7-9 C early in south.

OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same general comments apply. Some accumulating snow possible in eastern England around 12th-16th.

Forecasts for North America

The mild spell will end with a sharp temperature plunge across the Great Lakes followed by snow squalls tonight into Wednesday as winds veer from current SW 40-70 km/hr to WNW 50-80 km/hr. A bit of thunder could accompany the cold front as temperatures fall from 8-10 C to near -2 C by tonight. The mild air will last to about midnight or so in places like DC, NYC and Boston, with highs today near 15 C. The sharp cold front will also cut into parts of the inland southeast stalling before reaching Florida and the eastern Gulf coast. A few storms could develop although they will be brief. Very cold air is flooding south into the plains states with sunshine once the front passes, and temperatures stabilizing around -5 C Midwest to -10 C northern plains. A bit more snow for western Canada in secondary troughs with temperatures generally near -15 C although west of the Rockies it remains very mild with heavy wet snow over the inland ranges, rain on the coast about as far south as Los Angeles.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy and mostly dry but rain has developed this evening. The highs were near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 05-12-2012 9:00am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 5 December, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for slippery or icy roads in some parts of northern and central Ireland until about 10:00h.

ADVANCE ALERT for the risk of severe wintry weather arriving around a week from today and lasting several days to a week. See discussion in outlook section of forecast.

TODAY ... Cold and breezy with passing wintry showers in north, longer dry intervals elsewhere, some long spells of sunshine ... some ice and frost will persist well into the morning in shaded areas with afternoon highs 5-8 C. Winds northerly 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Clear to start in southeast, clouding over elsewhere, coldest around midnight (lows -3 to +2 C in south and east) but temperatures rising much of the night in west as rain arrives on southwest winds of 30-50 km/hr. This rain could start as sleet or wet snow in higher parts of inland south and east, but will be turning to rain before dawn in most parts.

THURSDAY ... Risk of icy roads from freezing drizzle or wet snow is most likely before dawn inland south and east, before milder air with rain arrives later in the morning, winds increasing to WSW 50-80 km/hr. Morning temperatures near 2 C east and 7 C west, then afternoon-evening highs in all regions about 8-10 C. Gale force gusts likely in Connacht and west Ulster towards evening with a wind shift to NW 40-70 km/hr.

THURSDAY NIGHT ... Windy and turning colder with squally showers becoming wintry over parts of the north. Lows 2-4 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy with mixed wintry showers for some parts of north, cold rain or hail showers further south, winds NW 40-70 km/hr, temperatures steady in the range 4-6 C possibly falling below that in north. There could be some accumulations of snow on hills in Donegal, Mayo and nearby counties.

SATURDAY ... Breezy and rather cold with mixed showers, some slight accumulations of sleet or snow on higher terrain, lows 1-3 C and highs 5-8 C.

SUNDAY ... Very cold to start with severe frost in some inland areas, lows about -5 to -2 C, then partly cloudy and somewhat milder by mid-day and afternoon in coastal districts at least, some inland locations could remain very cold with ice fog. Highs variable, near freezing inland, 7-10 C near some coasts (Dublin most likely about 4-6 C).

OUTLOOK ... Near normal temperatures may develop for a day or two early in the week with highs 5-7 C in a dry if foggy pattern, but much colder air is massing over the Baltic regions and will begin to make a westward push around Tuesday possibly overspreading most of Britain before arriving in Ireland with sub-freezing temperatures and the potential for snow mid-week, and this spell could last several days, a week or even longer. My speculation would be that this cold spell will break down in stages around the 23rd-24th leading to a milder spell Christmas Day to about the 28th with rain and strong winds possible then. Confidence in that is only moderate because this cold spell seems to be "on time" otherwise you'll very likely hear that this severe cold could intensify and dig in for a long time. I think it will come and go several times before a more severe spell later in the winter, so we'll see how that plays out, but in any case, best to be prepared for some intense cold and very likely widespread snowfalls at some point. The snow potential from current maps for around the 11th to 13th is significant but amounts are difficult to estimate this far in advance, don't be surprised if fairly heavy amounts start to appear in forecasts by the weekend. The eastern half of the country is more favoured at this point.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy and colder with mixed wintry showers, hill snow. Winds northerly 40-70 km/hr, highs mostly in the range 4-7 C (2-4 C east). Frequent wintry showers in northerly winds from North Sea, some accumulations of snow or sleet. Sunshine at times in west but squally local hail or snow showers coming off the Irish Sea in north Wales and further south into Somerset, Devon.

TONIGHT ... Generally clearing with wintry showers more isolated to east coast, sharp to severe frosts, lows -8 to -5 C. Some dangerous road conditions likely with freezing fog and icy sections.

THURSDAY ... Very cold to start, severe frost and some ice fog, some sunshine developing more likely near coasts, intervals of snow, sleet or rain turning milder very late in the day and only west of the M6. Highs there 6-8 C but staying near 2-4 further east. The milder air will reach the east by about midnight.

FRIDAY ... Windy with heavy showers, mildest around sunrise in a fast-moving warm sector but rain turning sleety as winds veer from west to northwest, snow on hills by late in the day. Highs 7-9 C early in south. Temperatures falling to 3-5 C by afternoon and evening. Blizzard-like conditions at higher elevations of Scotland and northwest England, Wales.

OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same general comments apply. Severe cold and some accumulating snow possible in eastern England around 10th-16th. If my research forecast is accurate, the Christmas holiday period could be a travel nightmare in parts of Britain especially northeast as milder air slowly pushes the cold air out with freezing rain or snow ahead of the warm fronts which may take days to push all the way across the region.

Forecasts for North America

Colder and quite breezy in the northeast U.S., snow squalls in the Great Lakes with highs near zero C. Cold and dry central states, sunny. Snow across the Canadian prairies again, -10 C and strong winds developing. Mild with showers on west coast but a drying trend developing as colder air filters south from central B.C. My local weather on Tuesday was variable with some places sunny, others under cloud with slow-moving showers, and widespread rainbows as a result. Highs were about 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 06-12-2012 8:27am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 6 December, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for slippery or icy roads in a few parts of inland southeast until about 09:00h as rain begins as sleet falling on cold surfaces -- also for more widespread icy or slippery roads tonight and Friday.

ADVANCE ALERT continued for the risk of severe wintry weather arriving around Tuesday night (11th-12th) and lasting several days towards the following weekend. See discussion for updated outlook.

TODAY ... Watch for patchy ice on roads from freezing drizzle or wet snow ahead of a band of moderate rain moving southeast across the country, bringing 10-20 mm by evening. Milder air will be slow to reach lower elevations of east and some valleys inland south, while it rapidly flushes out colder air elsewhere. Highs will reach 8-10 C towards late afternoon, as winds rise to WSW 50-80 km/hr, veering to NW 40-70 km/hr this evening.

TONIGHT ... Windy and turning colder with mixed wintry showers, most likely to turn to snow on hills in Donegal, Derry, Mayo and nearby counties. Winds NW to N 40-70 km/hr, temperatures falling to 2-3 C with a significant wind chill (near -5 C). Icy roads by morning in higher parts of north and some sheltered inland valleys as a slight frost develops in lows near -1 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy with mixed wintry showers for some parts of north, cold rain or hail showers further south, winds NW 40-70 km/hr, temperatures steady in the range 4-6 C possibly falling below that in north. There could be some accumulations of snow (2-5 cm) on hills in Donegal, Mayo and nearby counties. Some parts of the south may have longer intervals of sunshine by afternoon.

SATURDAY ... Breezy and rather cold with mixed showers possible in north, some slight accumulations of sleet or snow on higher terrain there, morning lows 1-3 C and highs 5-8 C. Further south, partly cloudy with a sharp frost inland, lows -3 to -1 C and highs 4-7 C except near 10 C southwest coast.

SUNDAY ... Very cold to start with severe frost in some inland areas, lows about -5 to -2 C, then partly cloudy and somewhat milder by mid-day and afternoon in coastal districts at least, some inland locations could remain very cold with ice fog. Highs variable, near freezing inland, 7-10 C near some coasts (Dublin most likely about 4-6 C). Widespread icy roads in morning hours.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, sharp frosts and light winds, lows near -4 C and highs 4-7 C. Some lingering ice fog.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, misty (foggy over hills), sleet or wet snow developing east, cold rain west, in a northeast wind 30-50 km/hr, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 3-6 C.

OUTLOOK ... Much colder air will be massing over the Baltic regions after this weekend and will begin to make a westward push around Tuesday possibly overspreading most of Britain before arriving in Ireland with sub-freezing temperatures and the potential for snow mid-week, and this spell could last several days, a week or even longer -- the latest guidance is not quite as intense as some maps we saw in the past day or so, but still a solid three or four days of wintry weather potential in northeast winds, likely some snow here and there from weak disturbances and the onshore flow of cold air across the Irish Sea. The counties around Dublin, Wicklow and Meath as well as east Ulster would be more at risk but the south coast could see slight amounts and elsewhere the wintry precipitation is likely to be more elevation-based. Current maps have potential for daytime readings of about 0-2 C and overnight lows -7 to -4 C from about Wed 12th to Sat 16th. As speculated yesterday, the cold spell appears likely to relax its grip after that with the blocked Atlantic flow finding ways of pushing back in from the southeast at first, so that near the end of this cold spell, mixed precipitation is likely for a while before a general thaw. The moderately severe cold is about 60% likely on the current guidance, severe cold (days below -2 and nights around -10) about 20% possible. The weakest solution I can envisage is for mixed sleety precip and highs 4-6 C in this period.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Very cold to start, severe frost and some ice fog, some sunshine developing more likely near coasts, intervals of snow, sleet or rain, turning milder very late in the day and only west of the M6 and Pennines. Highs there 6-8 C by evening, but staying near below 2-4 further east. The milder air will reach the east by about midnight

TONIGHT ... Snow or sleet changing to rain in eastern counties, rain tapering to showers, becoming quite windy west, WSW 50-80 km/hr veering NW 50-80 later in the night, showers then becoming more sleety and wintry (earlier in western Scotland where this could be underway before midnight). Temperatures rising in east to near +5C but steady 3-5 C west.

FRIDAY ... Windy with heavy showers, mildest around sunrise in a fast-moving warm sector but rain turning sleety as winds veer from west to northwest, snow on hills by late in the day. Highs 7-9 C early in south. Temperatures falling to 3-5 C by afternoon and evening. Blizzard-like conditions at higher elevations of Scotland and northwest England, Wales.

SATURDAY ... Mixed wintry showers in north, central regions in a moderate westerly, partly cloudy with localized freezing fog and icy roads south-central, mildest near southwest coast where highs 8-10 C. Otherwise highs about 4-6 C with some places staying colder due to fog.

SUNDAY ... Wintry showers ending, scattered fog or ice fog and cold, highs about 3-5 C.

OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast from Monday on, same general comments apply, although colder air arrives in northeast during Tuesday. Severe cold and some accumulating snow possible in eastern England around 11th-16th. Stormy breakdown of cold spell could lead to a nasty mix of heavy snow, freezing rain, flooding rains into parts of the southwest, and travel disruptions on several days, then possibly the Christmas holiday period could continue to be a travel nightmare in parts of Britain especially northeast as milder air slowly pushes the cold air out with freezing rain or snow ahead of the warm fronts which may take days to push all the way across the region.

Forecasts for North America

Cold and dry with some sunshine in northeast states and eastern Canada, as showers or flurries end across Maritime provinces. Cloudy and a bit milder in Midwest and Great Lakes region ahead of a weak warm front, highs 3-7 C. Partly cloudy and mild further south, outbreaks of light rain in parts of southeast and south central, highs generally 12-16 C. A slow-moving storm will be less able to lift warm air into the northeast next few days, but a lot of rain is likely instead with highs near 7-9 C and fog (to the weekend). This storm will develop slowly, meanwhile, a weak disturbance moving east through the prairies will continue to bring outbreaks of light snow and freezing drizzle, while milder air is held south of the international border except for a small portion of southeast Manitoba and northwestern Ontario where it will be foggy and about 2-3 C. The west coast will see a cold rain event with the snow line down into the higher suburban areas around Vancouver and Seattle (250m) but temperatures near sea level about 6-8 C.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy with light rain at times, chilly with highs about 6 C. Light rain falling now seems like it may mix with wet snow at times later at my elevation (which is 120m).

M.T. Cranium · 07-12-2012 8:22am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 7 December, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for slippery or icy roads in many rural and some higher urban areas tonight and repeating for the next few nights, as temperatures drop well below freezing, leading to freezing fog and frost.

ADVANCE ALERT continued for the risk of (moderately) severe wintry weather arriving around Tuesday night (11th-12th) and lasting several days towards the following weekend. See discussion for updated outlook.

TODAY ... Windy with mixed wintry showers for some parts of north, brief and isolatd rain or hail showers further south, winds NW 40-70 km/hr, temperatures steady in the range 4-6 C possibly falling below that in north. There could be some accumulations of snow (2-5 cm) on hills in Donegal, Mayo and nearby counties. Some parts of the south may have longer intervals of sunshine by afternoon. Frost could form this morning leading to some patchy ice on roads but conditions will probably be worse tonight.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, wintry showers confined to north, sharp frosts and icy roads developing in many rural areas, lows -5 to -2 C (about 2-4 C frost-free in some large urban areas and outer coastal locations).

SATURDAY ... Breezy and rather cold with mixed showers possible in north (only 1-3 mm potential), some slight accumulations of sleet or snow on higher terrain there, and highs 5-8 C. Further south, partly cloudy with a sharp frost inland, lows -3 to -1 C and highs 4-7 C except near 10 C southwest coast.

SUNDAY ... Very cold to start with severe frost in some inland areas, lows about -5 to -2 C, then partly cloudy and somewhat milder by mid-day and afternoon in coastal districts at least, some inland locations could remain very cold with ice fog. Highs variable, near freezing inland, 7-10 C near some coasts (Dublin most likely about 4-6 C). Widespread icy roads in morning hours.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, sharp frosts and light winds, lows near -4 C and highs 4-7 C. Some lingering ice fog may keep daytime readings near freezing in some inland valleys.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, misty (foggy over hills), sleet or wet snow developing east, cold rain west, in a northeast wind 30-50 km/hr, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 3-6 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy east, partly cloudy to sunny west, cold, isolated snow or hail showers in streamers near Irish Sea coasts and some parts of Donegal, Mayo. Winds generally NE 20-40 km/hr. Morning lows -5 to -2 C and daytime highs 0-4 C. Snowfall potential generally rather slight but with heavier amounts like 5-10 cms possible in a few cases (near if not actually in Dublin).

THURSDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light snow mainly near east and south coasts, and in parts of northwest, 1-3 cms possible in most cases, and this could turn to sleet or rain near sea level. Lows -5 to -2 C and highs 0-5 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Cloudy, sleet changing to rain at times in southwest, accumulating snow on hills, potential for some moderately heavy amounts, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 2-6 C.

OUTLOOK SUNDAY (16th) to CHRISTMAS DAY ... Starting today I will attempt to get a reading on the weather pattern before and during Christmas. Please bear in mind this time range requires more of a theoretical approach and so these outlooks are to be regarded as preliminary. The weekend of 15th-16th is likely to see a slight rise in temperatures and rain rather than snow especially by Sunday. The next few days are likely to be foggy and rather chilly as milder air moves in mostly aloft, highs from Sunday to mid-week are likely to remain 4-7 C. From about Friday 21st onward, a milder pattern is likely with south to southwest winds, strong at times, and rain on occasion including on Christmas Day. My prediction at present is for fog, rain and highs of 8-10 C on 25th-26th, windy on 27th-28th with further rain and possibly a colder turn.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy with heavy showers moving rapidly south through London and Thames valley this morning, clearing south coast mid-day, thus it will be mildest around sunrise (Midlands, Wales) in a fast-moving warm sector but rain turning sleety with some heavy wet snow squalls as winds veer from west to northwest or north at 50-80 km/hr, snow likely to accumulate on hills by late in the day. Highs 7-9 C early in south. Temperatures falling to 3-5 C by afternoon and evening. Blizzard-like conditions at higher elevations of Scotland and northwest England, Wales. Some sunshine will develop later in areas not in the path of sea-effect wintry showers.

TONIGHT ... Windy and cold with mixed rain and wet snow showers becoming more confined to southeast and North Sea coasts after midnight, slight frosts developing inland (west-central) with lows -2 to +4 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to start in south, cold, as mixed wintry showers move into north, then central regions in a moderate westerly, partly cloudy with localized freezing fog and icy roads south-central, mildest near southwest coast where highs 8-10 C. Otherwise highs about 4-6 C with some places staying colder due to fog.

SUNDAY ... Wintry showers ending, scattered fog or ice fog and cold, highs about 3-5 C.

OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast from Monday on, same general comments apply, although colder air arrives in northeast during Tuesday. Severe cold and some accumulating snow possible in eastern England around 11th-16th. Stormy breakdown of cold spell could lead to a nasty mix of heavy snow, freezing rain, flooding rains into parts of the southwest, and travel disruptions on several days, then possibly the Christmas holiday period could continue to be a travel nightmare in parts of Britain especially northeast as milder air slowly pushes the cold air out with freezing rain or snow ahead of the warm fronts which may take days to push all the way across the region.

Forecasts for North America

Northeast states cloudy with patchy light rain developing, highs about 7-9 C. Some parts of inland southeast dry and mild, 12-15 C but rain near Carolina-Georgia coasts will merge with the Ohio valley rain over the northeast by tonight or tomorrow morning. Warm and dry in parts of the southwest, outbreaks of light snow northern Rockies into western Canada. Sleet or wet snow showers on west coast north of Oregon with highs at sea level near 5 and mainly below freezing inland with heavy snow in some mountain areas.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with some clearing towards evening, chilly, also a few light sleety showers, highs about 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 08-12-2012 8:17am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 8 December, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for slippery or icy roads in many rural and some higher urban areas this morning and overnight into Sunday morning, especially in southern inland areas where skies will remain clear longer thus allowing temperatures to fall below freezing, leading to freezing fog and frost.

The ADVANCE ALERT is adjusted to an earlier time frame since the coldest air coming in around Wednesday probably won't be any colder than the next few nights. As you'll see in the forecasts, the milder air is now expected to push back in rather quickly around Thursday (west) and Friday (east). The most significant weather in the outlook period now is strong gale force winds expected by Friday and again around Sunday 16th.

TODAY ... Becoming breezy and staying rather cold with mixed showers possible in north (only 1-3 mm potential), some slight accumulations of sleet or snow on higher terrain there, and highs 5-8 C. Further south, partly cloudy with only light winds in most places especially inland, morning temperatures slow to recover from lows -3 to -1 C and highs eventually 4-7 C except near 9 C southwest coast which will also escape the morning frost.

TONIGHT ... Mixed sleety showers pushing away from east Ulster and north Leinster before midmight, remaining cloudy in north, cold but some parts frost-free, lows -1 to +3 C. Clear intervals leading to ice fog and frost in south especially inland from coast, lows -5 to -2 C, some severe ice conditions may develop in parts of west Munster.

SUNDAY ... Very cold to start with severe frost in some inland areas, lows about -5 to -2 C, then partly cloudy and somewhat milder by mid-day and afternoon in coastal districts at least, some inland locations could remain very cold with ice fog. Highs variable, near freezing inland, 7-10 C near some coasts (Dublin most likely about 4-6 C). Widespread icy roads in morning hours.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, sharp frosts and light winds, lows near -4 C and highs 4-7 C. Some lingering ice fog may keep daytime readings near freezing in some inland valleys.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, misty (foggy over hills), sleet or wet snow developing east, cold rain west, in a northeast wind 30-50 km/hr, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 3-6 C. Slight risk of snow streamers developing locally near Dublin.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy east, partly cloudy to sunny west, cold, isolated snow or hail showers in streamers near Irish Sea coasts and some parts of Donegal, Mayo. Winds generally ENE 15-30 km/hr. Morning lows -5 to -2 C and daytime highs 1-6 C. Snowfall potential generally rather slight but with heavier amounts like 3-6 cms possible in a few cases (near if not actually in Dublin). Some areas inland could remain calm and foggy with lingering frost and icy roads. West coast on the other hand could turn milder by evening as winds from the south push slowly inland with drizzle and fog. Wednesday night could see sleet or wet snow in parts of northeast and east coast.

THURSDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light snow turning to sleet and rain, mainly near east and south coasts, and in parts of northwest, 1-3 cms possible in most cases, and this could turn to sleet or rain near sea level. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 2-5 C. For west Munster and some parts of Connacht, cloudy and turning milder in stages, with light rain, moderate south winds, lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain and strong SW winds (50-80 km/hr) developing, potential for gale or locally storm force westerly gusts to 120 km/hr late in the day, watch for updates. Highs 8-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, windy at times, showers, highs 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Showers or periods of rain with potential for another interval of strong to severe winds from SW to W, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK MONDAY (17th) to CHRISTMAS DAY ... The first half of the week is likely to be slightly colder again with west to northwest winds, mixed wintry showers on high ground, highs 4-7 C, then there should be some more settled weather later in the week with near-normal temperatures. From about Friday 21st onward, a milder pattern is likely with south to southwest winds, strong at times, and rain on occasion including on Christmas Day. My prediction at present is for fog, rain and highs of 8-10 C on 25th-26th, windy on 27th-28th with further rain and possibly a colder turn.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy to start in south, cold, as mixed wintry showers move into north, then into central regions in a moderate westerly flow with winds 40-70 km/hr, partly cloudy with localized freezing fog and icy roads south-central, mildest near southwest coast where highs 8-10 C. Otherwise highs about 5-7 C with some places staying colder (2-4 C) due to fog.

TONIGHT ... Windy and rather cold with mixed showers of rain, sleet and wet snow, some heavy snow on higher terrain, winds veering NW to N 40-70 km/hr and lows 2-4 C.

SUNDAY ... Wintry showers ending in Scotland, Wales and northern England, and becoming less frequent in southern England in moderate northerly winds, cold with highs about 3-5 C. Some parts of inland west could have persistent low cloud or fog and icy roads at higher elevations.

OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast from Monday on, same general comments apply, although colder air arrives in northeast during Tuesday. Severe cold and some accumulating snow possible in eastern England around 11th-13th. Stormy breakdown of cold spell could lead to a nasty mix of heavy snow, freezing rain, flooding rains into parts of the southwest, and travel disruptions on several days, culminating in heavy snow in Scotland, heavy rain elsewhere and strong to severe winds on Friday 14th, possibly repeating on Sunday 16th with little respite between storms. Ferry schedules could be disrupted around this three-day interval. Most of the following week will be unsettled and windy, but well above freezing in most places, then possibly the Christmas holiday period could also be a travel nightmare in parts of Britain especially northeast as milder air slowly pushes cold air that may push in around 22nd-23rd out with freezing rain or snow ahead of the warm fronts which may take days to push all the way across the region.

Forecasts for North America

Outbreaks of light rain across much of the northeast, highs near 10 C. This turns to wet snow further north into lower Great Lakes. A widespread snowfall of about 5-15 cms will develop later today in the northern plains states as cold, dry air mass pushes south from western Canada where the sun will begin to appear through higher cloud (frigid with highs -10 to -15 C). This cold air has filtered out to the coast turning light rain to snow flurries even near sea level in BC and WA. It remains dry and mild further south ahead of this arctic front. My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy with afternoon sunshine, highs near 6 C, but now it is about 1-2 C with a few light flurries on radar (not falling at my location yet).

M.T. Cranium · 09-12-2012 8:23am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 9 December, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

Discussion: In the past day or so, the forecasting models have first shown a rapid breakdown of the cold spell mid-week, but now are showing a very gradual breakdown that is more in line with the forecast issued here yesterday morning. This may be confusing to readers and I apologize on behalf of the models who cannot in any case take the stand, although I feel like more of a victim than a perpetrator in this situation, to be honest I think we need to take the period Thursday to Saturday and review different possible outcomes and not treat any of them with a lot of confidence because there are probably three ways this situation can now "break down" so I will review those in the outlook. I do feel relatively confident of what's in the forecast to mid-week and I would put the most faith in the slow breakdown and eventual windy scenario. The other issue that requires comment is that it has remained much milder overnight than expected in the south, this is because the cloud and mild air associated with the weak low has spread over the whole country and prevented frost from forming. This will probably not have much effect on how things evolve past mid-day.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, rather mild with drizzly showers mostly in Leinster and east Ulster this morning, amounts slight (trace to 2 mm), highs 8-10 C. Winds rather light but veering slowly from NW to N 15-30 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy to clear, turning a bit colder again, some isolated frost and icy road sections possible inland north and east, lows -2 to +3 C but could remain 3-6 C in west Muinster and even some parts of south Leinster.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, highs 5-8 C. Some lingering ice fog may give icy roads in the morning inland northeast, this should clear for a time, but falling temperatures shortly after sunset will bring back more extensive icy road conditions spreading almost to the west and south coasts by midnight or so.

TUESDAY ... Clear to start in many areas, then increasing cloud, becoming misty (foggy over hills), rain, sleet or wet snow developing east, cold rain west, in a northeast wind 30-50 km/hr, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 3-6 C. Slight risk of snow streamers developing locally near Dublin.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy east, partly cloudy to sunny west, cold, isolated snow or hail showers in streamers near Irish Sea coasts and some parts of Donegal, Mayo. Winds generally ENE 15-30 km/hr. Morning lows -5 to -2 C and daytime highs 1-6 C. Snowfall potential generally rather slight but with heavier amounts like 3-6 cms possible in a few cases (near if not actually in Dublin). Some areas inland could remain calm and foggy with lingering frost and icy roads. West coast on the other hand could turn milder by evening as winds from the south push slowly inland with drizzle and fog. Wednesday night could see sleet or wet snow in parts of northeast and east coast.

THURSDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light snow turning to sleet and rain, mainly near east and south coasts, and in parts of northwest, 1-3 cms possible in most cases, and this could turn to sleet or rain near sea level. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 2-5 C. For west Munster and some parts of Connacht, cloudy and turning milder in stages, with light rain, moderate south winds, lows near 2 C and highs near 6 or 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... The forecast becomes rather uncertain around Thursday and the above is my preferred solution, but it could also turn much milder rather quickly (8-10 C, rain) or it could stay stubbornly cold with snow mixing in more extensively especially across the north. The uncertainty is due to a developing frontal boundary that could lie just south of Ireland to about Ulster to north Wales. Much depends on where this sets up. Then, the uncertainty deepens because this frontal boundary could take all day Friday to move through Ireland, and during that time, a low could develop near Ireland and bring in either strong winds (south more likely to see this) or heavy mixed precipitation (north most likely). It's a bit of a forecasting nightmare at 4-5 days, so the best course to take (I believe) is to state the range of possible outcomes and say that I feel like the guidance is mostly converging on the slow breakdown with mixed wintry precip in the north and east, a cold rain in the west and south (snow on hills), winds slowly veering ESE to SSW and a moderate chance of a windy outcome too. If it does become windy, bear in mind that a perigeean new moon on 13th (09h) would bring higher than normal tides into the equation.

The breakdown scenario is likely to be moving into a westerly unsettled pattern no later than Saturday and from then on, we will resume the outlook countdown towards Christmas as per yesterday's outlook. Following is the preferred but by no means "carved in stone" outlook by days:

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain and strong SW winds (50-80 km/hr) developing near south coast, highs 7-9 C but possible mixed rain and snow further north in continued east to southeast winds and temperatures only slowly edging up 2-5 C. Some risk of a more intense windstorm event, watch for updates.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, windy at times, showers, highs 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Showers or periods of rain with potential for another interval of strong to severe winds from SW to W, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK MONDAY (17th) to CHRISTMAS DAY ... The first half of the week is likely to be breezy to windy and continued mild (8-10 C), and there could be severe winds at some point during the mid-week, then there should be some more settled weather later in the week towards weekend 22nd-23rd with near-normal temperatures. From then on, a milder pattern is likely with south to southwest winds, strong at times, and rain on occasion including on Christmas Day. My prediction at present is for fog, rain and highs of 8-10 C on 25th-26th, windy on 27th-28th with further rain and possibly a colder turn.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Wintry showers ending in Scotland, Wales and northern England, and becoming less frequent in southern England in moderate northerly winds, cold east (4-6 C) but somewhat milder west with highs about 6-9 C. Some parts of northeast England and central Scotland could have persistent low cloud or fog and icy roads at higher elevations.

OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast from Monday on, same general comments apply, although colder air arrives in northeast during Tuesday. Severe cold and some accumulating snow possible in eastern England around 11th-13th. Stormy breakdown of cold spell could lead to a nasty mix of heavy snow, freezing rain, flooding rains into parts of the southwest, and travel disruptions on several days, culminating in heavy snow in Scotland and depending on how slow the breakdown develops, northern England too, heavy rain or mixed precipitation elsewhere and strong to severe winds in parts of the south on Friday 14th, possibly repeating on Sunday 16th with little respite between storms. Ferry schedules could be disrupted around this three-day interval, especially towards France. Most of the following week will be unsettled and windy, but well above freezing in most places, then possibly the Christmas holiday period could also be a travel nightmare in parts of Britain especially northeast as milder air slowly pushes cold air that may push in around 22nd-23rd out with freezing rain or snow ahead of the warm fronts which may take days to push all the way across the region.

Forecasts for North America

Widespread rain and fog in the northeast states, very mild air will push about as far north as Baltimore and Atlantic City, north of that east winds and about 8-10 C, south will see 15-20 C and chance of thunder with the more showery rainfalls. This system is rather sluggish and has only moderate winds, turning to northeast across the lower Great Lakes and Midwest where the rain will become sleety and end as wet snow in most places (ending tomorrow rather than later today). Cold and dry air has pushed into most of western Canada but extensive light snow has now broken out in the northern plains states with 5-15 cm accumulations and moderate northerly winds, falling temperatures. This pushes about as far south as Kansas and northern Missouri, south of that the weather is cloudy and seasonable (8-12 C). Dry and cool on the west coast with slight frosts.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with patches of blue sky and rather cold, highs of only 4 C. Very light showers at times were mixed rain and soft hail with snow falling on local hills.

M.T. Cranium · 10-12-2012 8:30am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 10 December, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for widespread icy roads this morning inland, and in some cases this may persist most of the day with even more extensive problems developing tonight as temperatures fall even lower in places. The southwest may escape due to cloud cover.

Discussion: The balance of latest guidance has returned us to about where we were when this was posted yesterday ... there are probably three ways this situation can now "break down" so I will review those in the outlook. I do feel relatively confident of what's in the forecast to mid-week and I would put the most faith in the slow breakdown and eventual windy scenario. The cold will be quite entrenched when Atlantic moisture begins to over-run on Wednesday and it will be a slow process to push it back all the way, so the chances of snow in the Thursday-Friday period (after any local streamers come and go) would range from near zero in the coastal southwest to perhaps 70% in Ulster, and in between, it will be a case of snow above certain elevations approximately 200m Connacht and mid-Leinster including the Dublin hills, so higher suburban areas are likely to see some accumulations (early speculation, 3-7 cms) before it melts by Saturday.

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, highs 5-8 C. Some lingering ice fog may give icy roads in the morning inland, this ice and frost should clear for a time except in a few very sheltered valley locations, but falling temperatures shortly after sunset will bring back more extensive icy road conditions spreading almost to the west and south coasts by midnight or so. A few places will have some pleasant sunshine mid-day, if it's an urban setting it may feel a bit warmer than other places. A few light streamers could brush the Wicklow coast with light hail or sleet showers.

TONIGHT ... Extensive clearing east and north, cloud over the southwest, frost and fog developing, widespread icy roads except in Kerry and some other coastal districts, lows -5 to -2 C but 2-5 C in southwest. A bit of drizzle could fall near southwest coasts.

TUESDAY ... Clear to start in many areas with icy road stretches on untreated surfaces, then increasing cloud, becoming misty (foggy over hills), patchy rain, sleet or wet snow developing east, cold rain west, in a northeast wind 20-40 km/hr, highs 3-6 C. Slight risk of snow streamers developing locally near Dublin. Dry and cold for many inland regions, lingering ice and frost, also some sunshine ... cloudy near west coast, some light rain at times, highs 6-8 C in southeast winds 20-40 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy east, partly cloudy to sunny west, cold, isolated snow or hail showers in streamers near Irish Sea coasts. Winds generally ESE 15-30 km/hr. Morning lows -5 to -2 C and daytime highs 1-6 C. Snowfall potential generally rather slight but with heavier amounts like 3-6 cms possible in a few cases (near if not actually in Dublin). Some areas inland could remain calm and foggy with lingering frost and icy roads. West coast on the other hand could turn milder by afternoon as winds from the south push slowly inland with drizzle and fog, highs 7-9 C. Wednesday night could see sleet or wet snow in parts of northeast and east coast.

THURSDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light snow turning to sleet and rain, mainly near east and south coasts, and in parts of northwest, 1-3 cms possible in most cases, and this could turn to sleet or rain near sea level. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 2-5 C. For west Munster and some parts of Connacht, cloudy and turning milder in stages, with light rain, moderate south winds, lows near 2 C and highs near 6 or 7 C. Potential for 10-20 mm rain in southwest and west, 5-10 mm mixed precip further east (3-7 cm snow on some hills).

FRIDAY ... This is still a balance of several different possible outcomes, if low pressure moves further noth, there could be extensive strong winds from the southwest, and also the snow potential mentioned here could be greater if the low tracks near the south coast. The forecast assumes a track across central Ireland. ... Cloudy with periods of rain and strong SW winds (50-80 km/hr) developing near south coast, highs 7-9 C but possible mixed rain and snow further north in continued east to southeast winds and temperatures only slowly edging up 2-5 C. Some risk of a more intense windstorm event, watch for updates. Anywhere that does see strong winds is also prone to unusually high tides due to new moon at perigee on Thursday.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, windy at times, showers, highs 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, breezy to windy SW to W, highs near 9 or 10 C.

OUTLOOK MONDAY (17th) to CHRISTMAS DAY ... The first half of the week is likely to be breezy to windy and continued mild (8-10 C), in fact there could be a strong windstorm around Tuesday, then there should be some more settled weather later in the week towards weekend 22nd-23rd with near-normal temperatures (some risk of a colder spell, but this is confined to one model at present). From then on, a milder pattern is likely with south to southwest winds returning, strong at times, and rain on occasion including on Christmas Day. My prediction at present is for fog, rain and highs of 8-10 C on 25th-26th, windy on 27th-28th with further rain and possibly a colder turn before New Years.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cold and mainly dry but some local sleet or snow showers in streamers coming inland from North Sea and into North Wales from Irish Sea. These will generally be quite localized and amounts mostly under 2 cm of snow or hail. Highs 3-6 C in NNE winds 30-50 km/hr (lighter winds in parts of Scotland closer to the centre of high pressure, therefore some valleys in northern Scotland staying frosty all day).

TONIGHT ... Very cold with widespread severe frosts, lows -5 to -10 C except milder in some parts of southwest and greater London (-2 C) and just a few isolated snow streamers in eastern counties. Roads very icy in places.

TUESDAY ... Some inland locations staying very cold, near or below freezing with ice fog and slippery roads, otherwise cold (3-5 C) with variable cloud, some sun, some light flurries in east mostly.

OUTLOOK ... The breakdown will be slower than discussed for Ireland, in most parts of Britain, except perhaps Cornwall and Devon ... snow or sleet may become fairly widespread with rain pushing slowly into southwest and only at lower elevations, so heavy snow possible on hills in Wales and Devon-Somerset. By about Friday, turning windy across the south, rain reaching the Midlands and east Anglia, snow or sleet, some ice in north-central regions. From about Saturday on, about the same forecast as above for Ireland.

Forecasts for North America

Widespread rain and fog in the northeast states continuing, very mild air will remain mostly south of New York to Pittsburgh, north of that east winds, rain and fog, about 8-10 C, south will see 13-17 C and showery rainfalls. This system is rather sluggish and has only moderate winds, turning to northeast across the lower Great Lakes and Midwest where the rain will become sleety and end as wet snow in most places (ending Tuesday east, later today west). Cold and dry air near -15 C is being pushed slowly east across the prairies of western Canada and will be replaced by slightly milder air near freezing in a weak chinook pattern, and extensive light snow continues in the northern plains states with further 5-10 cm accumulations and moderate northerly winds, falling temperatures. This now pushes about as far south as Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri, south of that the weather is cloudy and seasonable (8-12 C). Milder air is moving inland on the west coast with snow levels rising over the coastal ranges, heavy snows further inland but just light rainfalls near sea level on the coast.

My local weather on Sunday was cold and sleety to start, then drizzly with fog later, temperatures have slowly risen from about 2 C to present evening reading of 6 C.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with patches of blue sky and rather cold, highs of only 4 C. Very light showers at times were mixed rain and soft hail with snow falling on local hills.

M.T. Cranium · 11-12-2012 8:34am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 11 December, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for widespread icy roads especially where untreated and near sources of water vapour like ponds and rivers -- also severe cold near -5C in some inland regions this morning, and in some cases this may persist in modified form most of the day. The southwest will escape the harsh conditions due to cloud cover.

Discussion: There seems to be a daily cycle where the models allow milder air in faster during the mid-day runs, then back off a bit for these morning runs. Also I am very suspicious about easy warming of dense slugs of arctic high pressure even near the Atlantic Ocean, so this is probably going to sound a bit colder than other forecasts at least to Friday mid-day, this is mostly because I have the belief that the cold air is going to prove stubborn and winds will take more of an easterly turn in the first stages of the transition to milder weather; this of course does not mean that subtropical Kerry will also stay cold, so if you want to escape the wintry feel, book in somewhere near the southwest coast.

TODAY ... Clear to start in many areas with icy road stretches on untreated surfaces, with low cloud from ice fog in valleys and near ponds or lakes, then after some clearing, increasing cloud, becoming misty (foggy over hills), patchy rain, sleet or wet snow developing east, cold rain west, in a northeast wind 20-40 km/hr, highs 3-6 C. Some places could remain fogged in and very cold (-1 C) prolonging the icy road conditions locally. Slight risk of snow streamers developing locally near Dublin, limited extent and inland fetch with these. Dry (except for the ice fog) and cold for many inland regions, lingering ice and frost, also some sunshine ... cloudy near west coast, some light rain at times, highs 6-8 C in southeast winds 20-40 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Severe cold will redevelop in north Leinster and east Ulster, possibly some parts of north Connacht, but it may be somewhat less cold inland southeast and south under cloud, lows -4 to -1 C north, -2 to +3 C south. A few intervals of sleet or wet snow possible, with rain in southwest, just 2-5 mm amounts at most.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy east, partly cloudy to sunny west, cold, isolated snow or hail showers in streamers near Irish Sea coasts. Winds generally ESE 15-30 km/hr. Morning lows -5 to -2 C and daytime highs 1-6 C. Snowfall potential generally rather slight but with heavier amounts like 3-6 cms possible in a few cases (near if not actually in Dublin). Some areas inland could remain calm and foggy with lingering frost and icy roads. West coast on the other hand could turn milder by afternoon as winds from the south push slowly inland with drizzle and fog, highs 7-9 C. Wednesday night could see sleet or wet snow in parts of northeast and east coast.

THURSDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light snow turning to sleet and rain, mainly near east and south coasts, and in parts of northwest, 1-3 cms possible in most cases, and this could turn to sleet or rain near sea level. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 2-5 C. For west Munster and some parts of Connacht, cloudy and turning milder in stages, with light rain, moderate south winds, lows near 2 C and highs near 6 or 7 C. Potential for 10-20 mm rain in southwest and west, 5-10 mm mixed precip further east (3-7 cm snow on some hills).

FRIDAY ... This is still a balance of several different possible outcomes, if low pressure moves further noth, there could be extensive strong winds from the southwest, and also the snow potential mentioned here could be greater if the low tracks near the south coast. The forecast assumes a track across north-central Ireland. ... Cloudy with periods of rain and strong SW winds (50-80 km/hr) developing near south coast, highs 7-9 C but possible mixed rain and snow further north in continued east to southeast winds and temperatures only slowly edging up 2-5 C. There is a risk of very strong winds developing near south coast especially, and this applies also to Friday night into Saturday, as different guidance shows us different timing on a fairly strong low pressure system. where that does develop, coasts are also prone to unusually high tides due to new moon at perigee on Thursday.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, windy at times and possibly stormy, SW gales may develop Friday night into Saturday, showers or periods of rain and some risk of heavy rain 20-30 mm, highs 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, breezy to windy SW to W, highs near 9 or 10 C.

OUTLOOK MONDAY (17th) to CHRISTMAS DAY ... The first half of the week is likely to be breezy to windy and continued mild (8-10 C), in fact there could be a strong windstorm around Tuesday, then there should be some more settled weather later in the week towards weekend 22nd-23rd with near-normal temperatures with some risk of a colder spell for a couple of days. From then on, a milder pattern is likely with south to southwest winds returning, strong at times, and rain on occasion including on Christmas Day. My prediction continues to be fog, rain and highs of 8-10 C on 25th-26th, windy on 27th-28th with further rain and possibly a colder turn before New Years.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Some inland locations staying very cold, near or below freezing with ice fog and slippery roads, otherwise cold (3-5 C) with variable cloud, some sun, some light flurries in east mostly. Winds light and variable in most of Scotland and northern England, trending to NE 20-40 km/hr in Wales and central England and 30-60 km/hr in southeast England, adding quite a chill in London and southeast coast.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, ice fog, very cold for most, cloud and a bit milder in the southwest with patchy rain turning to sleet or snow further north as it slowly moves in, heavy snow possible over hilly areas of southwest. Lows of about -7 to -10 C will be widespread, trending to about -2 C in southwest inland and 3-5 C southwest Cornwall.

OUTLOOK ... The breakdown will be a bit slower than discussed for Ireland, in most parts of Britain, except perhaps Cornwall and Devon ... snow or sleet may become fairly widespread with rain pushing slowly into southwest and only at lower elevations, so heavy snow possible on hills in Wales and Devon-Somerset. By about Friday, turning windy across the south, rain reaching the Midlands and east Anglia, snow or sleet, some ice in north-central regions. From about Saturday on, about the same forecast as above for Ireland.

Forecasts for North America

Rain turning to wet snow inland northeast, snow or sleet lower Great Lakes and Ohio valley, but staying rather mild with light rain at times Boston, New York and Washington DC (15 C). The trend to colder weather will set in there tonight. Otherwise, not much change from yesterday, very cold across much of the north-central U.S. and western Canada as snow moves into the western Great Lakes region. Showers near the west coast turning to wet snow above 500m inland.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy and somewhat foggy with highs near 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 12-12-2012 8:23am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 12 December, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for icy or slippery roads in some parts of the inland northeast and central counties, not as widespread as yesterday, but possibly complicated by fresh falls of freezing drizzle or sleet. ADVANCE ALERT for intervals of heavy rain most regions and strong winds south and east coasts on Thursday night into Friday morning.

TODAY ... Rain will cover western counties for most of the day, amounts in the range of 5-15 mm, highs 6-8 C. This rain may change to sleet, freezing drizzle or snow (mostly at higher elevations) when it tries to move further east, and amounts will be less (3-7 mm equivalent) with highs 3-5 C. East coast and parts of Ulster may remain largely dry for the morning and there could be local snow streamers giving light accumulations near the coast. All regions will have moderate to brisk SE winds at 30-50 km/hr (some inland valleys may not feel these due to inversions).

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming drizzly in west, further outbreaks of light sleet or snow north and east. Lows 2-5 C west, -2 to +2 C elsewhere, some patchy ice on roads mainly inland northeast. Winds SE 20-40 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light snow turning to sleet and rain, mainly near east and south coasts, and in parts of northwest, 1-3 cms possible in most cases, and this could turn to sleet or rain near sea level. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 2-5 C. For west Munster and some parts of Connacht, cloudy and turning milder in stages, with light rain, moderate south winds, lows near 2 C and highs near 6 or 7 C. Potential for 10-20 mm rain in southwest and west, 5-10 mm mixed precip further east (3-7 cm snow on some hills). Becoming very windy across the south and west by evening, winds increasing to SE 50-80 km/hr, very high tides likely with some minor coastal flooding. This rain and wind storm will continue through the night giving 20-30 mm rain and strong gusts moving rapidly through the south and up the east coast later, ahead of milder air; when that arrives, winds will veer rapidly SW and decrease to SW 40-60 km/hr. (New moon occurs Thursday at 09h and it is a perigeean high tide event).

FRIDAY ... Strong winds and heavy rainfalls moving through east and north during morning hours, as variable cloud, showers and milder southwest winds reach other regions. Overnight temperatures rising to 6 C across the south, some pockets of colder air trapped in east Ulster 2-4 C may persist as the stronger winds are swept away into Britain. The rest of Friday will become partly to mostly cloudy with showers or periods of rain, a further 10-20 mm with SW winds 40-70 km/hr, highs 8-11 C south and 4-8 C north.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, windy at times and possibly stormy, SW gales may develop Friday night into Saturday, showers or periods of rain and some risk of heavy rain 20-30 mm, highs 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, breezy to windy SW to W, highs near 9 or 10 C.

OUTLOOK MONDAY (17th) to CHRISTMAS DAY ... The first half of the week is likely to be breezy to windy and continued mild (8-10 C), in fact there could be a moderate to strong windstorm around Tuesday, and another later in the week, then there should be some more settled weather towards the weekend of the 22nd-23rd with near-normal temperatures with some risk of a colder spell for a couple of days. From then on, a milder pattern is likely with south to southwest winds returning, strong at times, and rain on occasion including on Christmas Day. My prediction continues to be fog, rain and highs of 8-10 C on 25th-26th, windy on 27th-28th with further rain and possibly a colder turn before New Years.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Very cold with ice fog, widespread icy roads ... highs -3 to zero C except 4-7 C near southwest coasts and 2-5 C south Wales. Some weak sunshine could get through the low cloud and fog, and some snow grains or freezing drizzle could fall, with light rain at times in Cornwall. Winds increasing across the southwest to SE 40-70 km/hr. Elsewhere some calm pockets and some places with a cold E-SE wind of 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Further severe cold and ice fog, slippery roads ... lows -7 to -3 C except 3-5 C southwest counties of England with rain. Some outbreaks of sleet and snow in higher parts of Severn region and Wales.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, some further outbreaks of sleet and light snow, becoming heavier late in the day in north, as winds increase through the day from southeast reaching 50-80 km/hr by evening. Strong winds overnight into Friday, snow changing to sleet and rain, temperatures rising rapidly to 3-5 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and milder, some strong gusts across the south from a west to southwest direction, rain becoming showery. Highs 8-10 south, 3-5 C north with strong east to southeast winds.

OUTLOOK ... Similar pattern to Ireland from weekend on, mostly rather mild with frequent showers, also a similar outlook for Christmas period.

Forecasts for North America

Cool and dry across the northeast states today with the front now well south of Virginia into the southeast with 10-20 mm rainfalls, highs 10-13 C with northeast winds. Cold and dry in central regions, a bit milder in the Rockies and inland southwest with increasing cloud and showers developing California and Nevada (into Utah tonight). Rain changing to wet snow around Vancouver and Seattle, snow on hills. My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with rain in the morning, drizzle later, highs near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 13-12-2012 8:47am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 13 December, 2012

Astronomy note: New moon occurs today at 0843h.

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfalls 20-30 mm in most regions and strong winds south and east coasts tonight into Friday morning.

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, a dry start for most with outbreaks of very light snow or sleet turning back to rain, mainly near east coast, and in parts of northwest, 1-3 cms possible on higher terrain, daytime highs 3-7 C except 8-10 C in west Munster and some parts of south Connacht, where it will be cloudy and turning milder in stages, with light rain, moderate south winds. Strong winds arriving in southwest around sunset.

TONIGHT ... Rain with some thunder possible, arriving in southwest and west early evening, 5-10 mm mixed precip further east around midnight (2-5 cm snow on some hills, sleet then rain lower down). Becoming very windy across the south and southwest by evening, winds increasing to SE 50-80 km/hr, very high tides likely with some minor coastal flooding. This rain and wind storm will continue through the night giving 20-30 mm rain and strong gusts moving rapidly through the south and up the east coast later, ahead of milder air; when that arrives, winds will veer rapidly SW and decrease to SW 40-60 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Strong winds and heavy rainfalls moving through east and north during morning hours, as variable cloud, showers and milder southwest winds reach other regions. Overnight temperatures rising to 6 C across the south, some pockets of colder air trapped in east Ulster 2-4 C may persist as the stronger winds are swept away into Britain. The rest of Friday will become partly to mostly cloudy with showers or periods of rain, a further 10-20 mm with SW winds 40-70 km/hr, highs 8-11 C south and 4-8 C north.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, windy at times and possibly stormy, rather strong SW winds near west coast 50-80 km/hr, otherwise 30-60 km/hr, showers or periods of rain and some risk of heavy rain 20-30 mm, morning lows 2-5 C, highs about 8-10 C south, 5-8 C north.

SUNDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, breezy to windy SW to W at 40-70 km/hr, morning lows 3-5 C, highs near 9 or 10 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, light rain or showers, some sleet or melting wet snow possible on hills in northwest, a bit colder in west to northwest winds 30-50 km/hr, lows of 1-3 C and highs around 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Frosty start, dry and partly cloudy daytime, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 6-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy, periods of rain that could start as sleet in north, milder in stages, lows 0-3 C and highs 7-11 C.

OUTLOOK THURSDAY (20th) to CHRISTMAS DAY ... Unsettled late in the week into Saturday 22nd, then a brief colder and dry spell around Sunday 23rd with slight frosts, followed by milder and breezy to windy conditions by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, becoming windy or even stormy by 26th and 27th, highs during the holiday period near 10 C in strong southwest to west winds. There could then be a colder turn before New Years.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... A very cold start except in southwest, with ice fog lifting mid-day to reveal variable cloud cover then some outbreaks of sleet and light snow, in a keen southeast wind as temperatures rise slowly to 1-3 C (5-8 C southwest). This sleet will change to rain from south to about Midlands during the evening hours but then heavier sleet or snow may develop in north-central England, higher elevations of Wales, and into southern Scotland.

TONIGHT ... Stormy across the south with gale force SE winds, heavy rainfalls, thunder late ... rain mixed with snow further north, some heavy snowfalls possible in northeast England and southern Scotland in gale force ESE winds. Temperatures rising through the night to reach 8-10 C south and about 3-5 C in southern Scotland.

FRIDAY ... Windy and milder, some strong gusts across the south from a west to southwest direction, rain becoming showery. Highs 8-10 south, 3-5 C north with strong east to southeast winds.

OUTLOOK ... Similar pattern to Ireland from weekend on, mostly rather mild with frequent showers, also a similar outlook for Christmas period.

Forecasts for North America

Most parts of the U.S. will be dry with just southern California and southern Nevada seeing some showers, but this will eventually set off light snow further north at higher elevations of the Great Basin region. That will continue into the central plains states on Friday. Meanwhile, cool and dry for most of the east with a remnant of yesterday's rain pulling away from the Carolina coasts. Mild and dry in the south central states into the desert southwest until west of Phoenix AZ with the Pacific moisture setting off late showers. Heavier rain will move onto the BC and WA coasts mid-day making gradual inland progress turning to snow in the Cascades. It remains cold across most of western Canada with a light snowfall moving through the Great Lakes mostly on the Canadian side but some falling in Michigan's upper peninsula.

My local weather on Wednesday was dry but cloudy, high near 6 C.

M.T. Cranium · 14-12-2012 8:38am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 14 December, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Strong southeastwinds and heavy rainfalls moving through east and north during morning hours will ease gradually, as variable cloud, showers and somewhat milder southwest winds reach other regions. Morning temperatures continuing to rise slowly to 8-10 C across the south, but as some pockets of colder air remain trapped in east Ulster 2-4 C may persist as the stronger winds are swept away into Britain. A zone from Connacht to central Leinster will warm up slightly but may peak at about 6-7 C. Once the strong SE winds move away, the south coast will be breeziest at about 35-55 km/hr SW, and further north there will be a slack wind regime in a trough that gradually lifts north. Winds may fall off calm and while some places clear others may turn foggy. Dense fog could develop over some parts of the south central counties this morning and extend into the north central regons by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy with a few more showers, moderate SW winds and lows 3-5.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, windy at times, with rather strong SW winds near west coast 50-80 km/hr, otherwise 30-60 km/hr, showers or periods of rain with generally 5-15 mm, highs about 8-10 C south, 5-8 C north.

SUNDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, breezy to windy SW to W at 40-70 km/hr, morning lows 3-5 C, highs near 9 or 10 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, light rain or showers, some sleet or melting wet snow possible on hills in northwest, a bit colder in west to northwest winds 30-50 km/hr, lows of 1-3 C and highs around 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Frosty start, dry and partly cloudy daytime, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 6-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy, periods of rain that could start as sleet in north, milder in stages, lows 0-3 C and highs 7-11 C south, 4-7 C north.

THURSDAY ... Showers, windy, lows 2-4 C and highs 6-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, lows 2-4 C and highs 6-8 C.

OUTLOOK SATURDAY (22nd) to Post-CHRISTMAS DAY ... Yet another Atlantic low arrives later Saturday 22nd into Sunday 23rd with wind and rain (possibly sleet in some northern regions), then after a brief colder and dry spell around night of Sunday 23rd and day of Monday 24th with slight frosts, more rain and fog by Christmas morning, possibly mixing with sleet in north, and getting quite windy later into St Stephen's Day and 27th as deep low pressure tracks slowly east across regions just north of Ireland, highs each day in this pattern about 6-8 C for most, 8-10 C southwest, but there is some range of possible outcomes that includes a milder solution as well as a colder one that would perhaps bring about the rather faint hope of a white Christmas in this pattern -- the one thing favouring cold and snow is that at no time does the jet stream appear to lift into a really mild flow and the cold high continues to lurk somewhere east of the Baltic. But I think it's more likely to push west more forcefully well into January 2013.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy and milder especially southern England, some strong gusts across the south from a west to southwest direction (70-90 km/hr), rain becoming showery. Highs 8-10 south, 3-5 C north with strong east to southeast winds (80-110 km/hr around Edinburgh and Newcastle). A driving rain could turn to sleet or snow at higher elevations.

TONIGHT ... Rain easing to showers, winds gradually subsiding in south although more slowly across Scotland, directions remaining similar except in northern England where east winds will give way to moderate SW, hill fog in Wales and northern England could give locally very poor driving conditions.

OUTLOOK ... Similar pattern to Ireland from weekend on, mostly rather mild with frequent showers in south but continued slight colder incursions from east or southeast affecting mainly Scotland and north-central England usually in the opening phases of each disturbance that comes along, and also a similar outlook for Christmas period, mixed precip likely Scotland and northern England, rain or showers south.

Forecasts for North America

Dry and cool in most of Great Lakes and northeast U.S. with a slightly colder push from Quebec into Maine and eastern Canada. Highs will be 7-10 C in the larger cities of the east coast, and 12-15 C further west and southwest, trending to about 20-23 C in Texas and parts of the south central plains states ahead of a rather weak disturbance bringing rain and sleet to parts of Colorado with snow over higher peaks and back into parts of the inland west (Great Basin), as showers end in southern California. Periods of rain further north from a front advancing slowly inland from Pacific, also rather weak for time of year. This is allowing milder air to push into parts of western Canada.

My local weather on Thursday was wet with a high near 7 C. Expecting little change later today.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Comments