Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 25 October, 2012

Astronomy note: Today, Saturn is in "conjunction" with the Sun meaning that it's on the far side of the Sun from the earth. It is not quite behind the Sun because it's also at a relatively high point in its orbit. If the Sun happened to be visible and in eclipse, you'd be able to see Saturn right above it with the bright star Spica just below it. Meanwhile, Jupiter is a very bright object in clear skies around midnight and Venus just before sunrise.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Any remnant fog and mist should break up rather quickly, except in some parts of the southeast, then layers of higher cloud will become broken to overcast allowing some brief sunny breaks, and there could be passing showers that leave just traces of rain in a stronger east wind, 20-35 mph ... highs about 12-14 C although temperatures could begin to fall off towards 8-10 C in east Ulster and north Leinster.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals despite considerable cloud which will be more prevalent south ... lows about 2-5 C for most, 5-8 C coastal south. Winds continuing rather brisk from northeast at 15-25 mph adding some chill.

FRIDAY ... A rather cold start and then a cloudy, raw sort of day in most of the eastern and northern counties with some rather sleety showers in north-east Ulster and north Leinster, winds northeast 20-40 mph adding quite a chill after this warm spell, and highs 6-8 C. Further south and west, a little more sunshine in the mix, and less chance of showers, highs 8-11 C.

FRIDAY NIGHT ... Although there is potential for frost and lows of -3 to -1 C this may be hit or miss due to persistent low cloud that may keep temperatures higher in some spots, with the chance of fluctuations between frosty and thawing temperatures during the night. Some icy patches are likely and because of the variable conditions this may be more dangerous (if the frost was more widespread everyone would be more aware of it on their journeys). Winds will fall off light or calm in some inland areas but coastal margins will retain northerly breezes of 10-20 mph; this and the marine exposure will keep overnight temperatures near 3-5 C in some coastal areas, so no frost there.

SATURDAY ... This cold spell will quickly get overwhelmed by the return of milder Atlantic air in Ireland (although not in Britain) so expect cloudy skies, rain arriving in north late in the day, a slightly milder feel once the scattered frost is flushed out, highs 9-12 C, winds backing to NW 20-35 mph.

SUNDAY ... Showers or periods of rain (10-15 mm) with moderate to SW winds 20-40 mph veering to west and northwest late in the day 35-55 mph at times, morning lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C but turning colder again by evening.

MONDAY ... Raw and cold with passing showers (1-3 mm), but a brighter afternoon should develop, despite some sleety showers mid-day on higher ground, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C. Winds northerly 25-35 mph abating somewhat later.

OUTLOOK ... There is now less chance of "Sandy" turning east and approaching, but the unsettled nature of the week is still the dominant theme with strong low pressure likely to form in the cold westerly upper flow leading to showery weather with at least normal rainfalls and perhaps sub-normal temperatures although just by a degree or two (so about 9-10 C).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers in a brisk northeast wind, some sleet or snow developing over higher parts of northern England and Scotland, less likely in Wales except on summit of Snowdon, with highs generally 7-10 C mildest in southwest and Wales, coldest in northeast (readings near 3-5 C on higher slopes).

TONIGHT ... Frosty in a few spots, sleety showers or wet snow on hills in north, lows 1-3 C on average.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated sleety or wintry showers mostly near North Sea, winds NNE 20-40 mph, cold. Highs near 7 C on average but could be held to 3-4 C in some northern areas.

FRIDAY NIGHT ... Icy roads and extensive frost with lows -4 to -1 C but a few locations frost-free due to breeze off water or low cloud.

OUTLOOK ... Milder in stages over the weekend, becoming wet from north to south but some heavier rainfalls by Sunday, windy at times, colder again on Monday with mixed precip away from the milder south, and most likely to turn wet and perhaps stormy after that.

Forecasts for North America

Across most of the continent, little change with the warm, dry spell continuing from Kansas east to Virginia, a strengthening cold front making slow progress through the north-central plains states ending up near Chicago by this evening, dropping temperatures about 10 degrees from 20s ahead of it to 10-12 C behind ... warmer today in parts of the Great Lakes and inland northeast with the warm frontal rain pushing a bit further north too ... continued unsettled and cold in western Canada.

"Sandy" has probably intensified faster than most of the models and therefore forecasters expected, to become a strong cat-2 storm over eastern Cuba at present time, heading NNW soon into the central Bahamas by tonight and then NNE towards the Gulf Stream Friday night, east of Cape Hatteras by Saturday, and then choose your model (weapon) of choice to take a very strong storm that may still be a hurricane into some part of the east coast ... here's the menu at present ... European model, landfall Sunday night in the mid-Atlantic and New Jersey ... UK and GEM favour a New England or Long Island landfall Monday night ... GFS takes a wider turn and slams the storm into Nova Scotia Tuesday night. Then from whatever position these models all take the decaying remnant storm towards the Great Lakes. Results will vary depending on which model wins the battle, but some part of the northeast will take a pounding with damaging winds and storm surges, while most of the inland northeast and eastern Great Lakes can expect a windy, cold rain to snow or sleet mixture with heavy snow on higher ground.

My local weather nowhere near as interesting, cloudy and damp, 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 26 October, 2012

ALERT for sharp frosts in some inland regions and scattered instances of icy roads developing in particular where roads run close to fog-producing warmer ponds and streams. As the slippery conditions may be hit or miss, drive with caution. Town centres likely too warm for frost, rural areas more likely to see some.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A rather cold and cloudy, raw sort of day in most of the eastern and northern counties, with brief sunny intervals, and with some rather sleety showers or drizzle in parts of Leinster fading away by afternoon, winds northeast 20-40 mph adding quite a chill after the mild spell, and highs 6-8 C. Further south and west, cloudy much of the day but with a little more sunshine in the mix by afternoon, and slight chance of showers or drizzle, amounts in all cases trace to 2 mm ... highs for the south 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Although there is potential for frost and lows of -3 to -1 C this may be hit or miss due to persistent low cloud that may keep temperatures higher in some spots, with the chance of fluctuations between frosty and thawing temperatures during the night. Some icy patches are likely, especially in valleys or in any fog patches near ponds or streams. Winds will fall off light or calm in some inland areas but coastal margins will retain northerly breezes of 10-20 mph; this and the marine exposure will keep overnight temperatures near 3-5 C in some coastal areas, so no frost there.

SATURDAY ... The colder spell will be gradually erased by the return of milder Atlantic air in Ireland (although not in Britain) so expect cloudy skies, rain arriving in north late in the day, a slightly milder feel once the scattered frost is flushed out, highs 9-12 C, winds backing from N to NW 20-35 mph.

SUNDAY ... Showers or periods of rain (10-15 mm) with moderate to strong SW winds 20-40 mph veering to west and northwest late in the day 35-55 mph at times, morning lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C but turning colder again by evening.

MONDAY ... Raw and cold with passing showers (1-3 mm), but a brighter afternoon should develop, despite some sleety showers mid-day on higher ground, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C. Winds northerly 25-35 mph abating somewhat later.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers to periods of rain, winds becoming moderate SW 20-35 mph, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Possibly quite windy or stormy, advance alerts may be needed if models continue this trend ... potential for SW gales 35-55 mph with some higher gusts in Connacht, west Munster ... squally showers and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Further unsettled and windy weather gradually settling into more of a bland cloudy and westerly sort of pattern past the first weekend in November, highs generally near or below normal just by a degree or two (so about 9-11 C).


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated sleety or wintry showers mostly near North Sea, winds ENE backing to NNE 20-40 mph, cold. Highs near 7 C on average but could be held to 3-4 C in some northern areas. Cloud will be more persistent south of the Thames and morning drizzle should eventually fade but could continue in Cornwall and Devon, highs 8-10 C. Better chances for some sunshine in Wales and Cumbria, western Scotland where the flow of modified cold air has to cross higher ground and downslope to sea level. Some strong gusty ENE winds in a few zones where terrain assists such as Peak District and Welsh valleys that run east-west.

TONIGHT ... Icy roads and extensive frost with lows -4 to -1 C but a few locations frost-free due to breeze off water or low cloud. Cloudy and a bit milder in parts of south, 2-4 C.

OUTLOOK ... Milder in stages over the weekend, becoming wet from north to south but some heavier rainfalls by Sunday, windy at times, colder again on Monday with mixed precip away from the milder south, and most likely to turn wet and perhaps stormy after that, similar to Ireland.

Forecasts for North America

The warm air has now been squeezed between the slowly advancing cold front running about Lake Huron to western Tennessee to southeast Texas, and the advancing marine layer from the east that is part of eastern Canada blocking high pressure pushing back against the stalled warm front. This will leave most eastern states in sunshine and 26-30 C highs but extensive low cloud and mist or fog in parts of the northeast, near 18 C. Before we get to the advancing hurricane, the cold front is getting more active with periods of rain and embedded brief thundershowers, then a cold northerly develops behind it with highs 5-8 C. Sunny and near normal temperatures over the inland western U.S. trending to mostly cloudy on the Canadian border and outbreaks of snow or sleet in western Canada except on the west coast where it is drizzly and cool.

Hurricane Sandy will finish with the Bahamas later today and drift north to northeast to reach a position off South Carolina late Saturday. On Sunday it will move past Cape Hatteras. The earlier model consensus discussed in the hurricane thread has somewhat diverged again as of the recent suite of guidance but the most likely scenario remains a landfall Monday to Monday night in New Jersey or Long Island. A very strong storm appears possible with damaging winds and storm surges, flooding rainfalls, and in fact a "billion dollar disaster" was the scenario discussed by one of America's best known forecasters, Chad Myers of CNN. Many "local mets" in the New York and northeast regions seem to agree and we see no reason to doubt this if the models verify, as the depicted central pressure of the storm Monday night is something like 940 mbs and 10 mbs lower than the previous record low for the region (over about 200 years of reliable records). That alone is quite extraordinary, more so if it happens. :eek:

You can expect frequent updates on that U.S. storm in the hurricane thread from the usual suspects.

My local weather, meanwhile, was notably bland and featureless with highs near 10 C, some interesting miniature cb's were visible during a brief clearing of the low cloud, but they never rose up high enough to develop precip.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.


Saturday, 27 October, 2012


Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... The colder spell will be gradually erased by the return of milder Atlantic air so expect increasingly cloudy skies, rain arriving in north late in the day, a slightly milder feel once the scattered frost is flushed out, highs 9-12 C, winds backing from N to NW 20-35 mph.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud south, rain from north into central counties by midnight, amounts 2-5 mm, starting later in south, lows 3-7 C. Winds backing slowly WNW 20-30 mph.

SUNDAY ... Showers or periods of rain (10-15 mm) with moderate to strong SW winds 20-40 mph veering to west and northwest late in the day 35-55 mph at times, morning lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C but turning colder again by evening.

MONDAY ... Raw and cold with passing showers (1-3 mm), but a brighter afternoon should develop, despite some sleety showers mid-day on higher ground, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C. Winds northerly 25-35 mph abating somewhat later.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers to periods of rain, winds becoming moderate SW 20-35 mph, increasing by evening to 40 mph especially near northwest coast, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Possibly quite windy or stormy, advance alerts may be needed if models continue this trend ... potential for SW gales 35-55 mph with some higher gusts in Connacht, west Munster ... squally showers and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Further unsettled and windy weather gradually settling into more of a bland cloudy and westerly sort of pattern past the first weekend in November, highs generally near or below normal just by a degree or two (so about 9-11 C).


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Raw and cold to start, rather windy in south, much less windy in parts of north and even a calm interval in valleys before westerlies arrive, rain spreading south by late afternoon to reach north Wales to Yorkshire, highs 8-10 C. Winds in south will be from NE at 30-45 mph at times this morning, easing around mid-day. Drizzle will also end then.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, outbreaks of rain, lows 4-7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Milder in stages Sunday, winds SW 30-50 mph veering late in the day to northwest, highs near 12 C. Monday will then become much colder with a stiff northerly wind and sleety showers especially off the North Sea. A brief clearing on Tuesday will be followed by a storm on Wednesday, the forecast in general will be similar to Ireland.


Forecasts for North America

The warm sector in the east is now squeezed between the mountains and the coast and the air mass is slowly acquiring more stable cloud layers as the interaction with offshore Sandy continues. This will result in widespread highs of about 20-23 C but some parts of the Gulf coast could see 27 C. A front now running from Lake Ontario to Alabama will continue to produce sporadic showers and edge further east awaiting its doom (to be wrapped into the circulation of Sandy on Monday). Cold northerlies are flooding south across the Great Lakes with a few mixed showers near the shores, and weak streamers developing but mostly dry and 4-6 C highs. Clear and cool central plains to east Texas, warming again across the Rockies, and showery to snowy across western Canada with a cold high over SK and MB.

The prognosis for Sandy remains similar to yesterday, a major storm is still likely to slam into the coast between Delaware and Long Island with more extensive winds and rainfall mixing with heavy snow over the higher parts of PA and MD-WV but that won't start until late Sunday. A major weather disaster with hurricane force wind gusts and storm surges could strike New York City or any part of the coast in that zone by Monday night. See yesterday's discussion for further details.

My local weather (tries to remember) was rainy at times with a high near 10.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.


Sunday, 28 October, 2012

Note: You may hear on the news or the forum that a 7.7 mag earthquake struck the coast of British Columbia. Just briefly, this has had only moderate impacts in a few isolated areas, and almost no effects felt where I live in the Vancouver region. Tsunami warnings have been reduced to advisories for one-metre tidal excesses. Full moon is tomorrow, will give the details on Monday morning. Also, unrelated, if you didn't change your clocks last night, you are up an hour earlier than you thought.


Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Showers or periods of rain (10-15 mm) with moderate to strong SW winds 20-40 mph veering to west and northwest late in the day 35-55 mph at times, morning lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C but turning colder again by evening. Winds should ease gradually after mid-day from west to east, and some lines of showers may develop minor squally conditions with hail possible.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, rather cold and raw with winds veering to W, NW and eventually N in the 20-30 mph range mostly, a few spits of sleety rain with temperatures slowly decreasing from 5 to 2 C.

MONDAY ... Raw and cold to start, with passing showers more frequent in eastern counties (1-3 mm), but a brighter afternoon should develop, despite some sleety showers mid-day on higher ground in Ulster and Connacht, with highs near 7 or 8 C. Winds northerly (NNE at times) 25-35 mph abating somewhat later.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers to periods of rain, winds becoming moderate SW 20-35 mph, increasing by evening to WSW 40 mph especially near northwest coast, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, windy at times, showers or periods of rain, with lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Winds SW 25-45 mph with some higher gusts in Connacht, west Munster ... squally showers may develop with 3-5 mm on average, and highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy or even stormy in some northern coastal regions, squally and blustery showers, some with hail and thunder. Winds from WSW to WNW in the range of 35-55 mph with possible gusts to 70 mph in exposed northwest locations. Lows near 5 C and highs 9-11 C. Winds veering more to the NNW by evening.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Not as windy and somewhat brighter.

OUTLOOK ... Further unsettled and windy weather gradually settling into more of a bland cloudy and westerly sort of pattern past the first weekend in November, highs generally near or below normal just by a degree or two (so about 9-11 C).


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with showers developing, some squally with hail later, winds increasing to WSW 35-55 mph across the south, veering afternoon and evening in Wales, northwest England and Scotland to NNW 20-40 mph, further showers, highs today near 11 C south, 7 C north.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing west inland, some coastal sleety showers, but more organized bands of rain in east near North Sea. Lows 2-4 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming much colder with a stiff northerly wind and sleety showers especially off the North Sea. Some brighter intervals in the west. Winds northerly 20-40 mph, highs 5-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Cold to start, turning milder, rain spreading in, highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... A windy to stormy period likely near the midnight hour of Hallowe'en into All Saints Day. Winds from west veering northwest could reach 50-70 mph in places by Thursday, highs both days near 10 C, frequent showers and some hail.

OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same general trend.


Forecasts for North America

Rain will break out along the east coast with a rising northeast wind. Stormy to hurricane conditions will follow on Monday. Today won't be too bad with highs near 15 C and winds NE 20-40 mph. Tomorrow and Tuesday could be a very dire period especially around greater New York City. Cold and windy further west, some snow developing on higher terrain in PA and WV. This will also intensify into a major snowstorm in some parts by Monday night.

Clear and cool east-central U.S. north into western Great Lakes. Cloud from the hurricane may back into this region tonight. Highs 5-8 C trending to near 15 C on the central Gulf coast. Sunny and mild to warm further west. Rain spreading into coastal B.C. to showers inland, cold and dry east of the Rockies but some snow later in foothills.

My local weather has been dismal on Saturday, periods of rain, chilly, 9-10 C. As noted, a 7.7 mag earthquake rocked the north coast about 300 miles northwest of my location; I felt nothing (at 0304z or 8:04 pm Saturday local time). Damage reports are moderate or slight, only a small tsunami has been reported. Shaking or swaying in the zone was moderate rather than violent.

Have to wonder if the tidal imbalances in eastern North America might set off a more significant earthquake somewhere around the Atlantic basin in the next day or two.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 29 October, 2012

Astronomy note: The moon rises full this evening (exact timing 19:51h) and is close to its furthest point from earth (apogee).

ADVANCE ALERT: A period of very windy weather is expected late Thursday into early Friday, details may shift in timing but for now we'll say that gusts to 60 mph are possible in the northwest and 50 mph in other regions, so at this point, a rather marginal alert situation given that many leaves are down.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A rather cold but bright day in most areas, passing sleety showers could develop near north and east coasts but amounts will be mostly trace to one mm range ... not too windy but a northerly breeze could feel quite raw, at 10-20 mph ... highs will struggle to reach 7 or 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Scattered ground frost may develop around midnight as cloud will tend to increase later in the night, checking the fall of temperatures ... look for a lunar halo possibly around the full moon. Lows zero to 3 C.

TUESDAY ... Some weak sunshine through increasing high cloud for the south, more overcast to start off the day in the north with showers building up to periods of rain, moving south but possibly remaining dry near the south coast at least until quite late in the day ... winds becoming moderate SW 20-35 mph, increasing by evening to WSW 40 mph especially near northwest coast, and highs near 11 C. Rainfalls 5-10 mm north to 1-3 mm south.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, windy at times, showers or periods of rain, with lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Winds SW 25-45 mph with some higher gusts in Connacht, west Munster ... squally showers may develop with 3-5 mm on average, and highs near 10 C. Turning colder when winds shift more northwesterly later afternoon or evening.

THURSDAY ... Generally breezy and unsettled with a few showers during the day, becoming windy or even stormy in some northern coastal regions by late afternoon or evening, squally and blustery showers then developing, some with hail and thunder. Winds SW 20-30 mph then increasing to WSW veering to WNW in the range of 35-55 mph with possible gusts to 70 mph in exposed northwest locations. Lows near 5 C and highs 9-11 C. Winds veering more to the NNW by evening in Connacht.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. An interval of very strong winds during the overnight and morning hours should abate back to moderate (NW 30-50 mph at first, then 15-30 mph later) and following some rain it should clear up or become somewhat brighter.

OUTLOOK ... Further unsettled and windy weather gradually settling into more of a bland cloudy and westerly sort of pattern past the first weekend in November to midweek, highs generally near or below normal just by a degree or two (so about 9-11 C). Another stormy interval could develop towards the end of the week.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Becoming much colder this morning in western regions and all of Scotland, then northeast England with a northerly wind 20-40 mph and sleety showers off the North Sea, Irish Sea, otherwise fairly dry. This cooler trend will begin in the afternoon in southeast England with a few showers marking a rather weak frontal trough passage. Highs in most regions 5-8 C, but closer to 10 C in southeast England.

TONIGHT ... Scattered light frosts, partly cloudy to clear, winds rather light in the south, moderate westerly in north where not as cold. Lows generally about -1 to +3 C, but 4-7 C in western Scotland.

TUESDAY ... Cold to start, turning milder, rain spreading in across northern and central regions, highs near 10 C. Winds moderate SW 20-35 mph.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Unsettled, frequently breezy from southwest to west, but a stronger wind from a northwest direction likely at times Thursday night into Friday. Highs each day 8-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same general trend.


Forecasts for North America

The main story is approaching Hurricane Sandy, but we'll start with the less dramatic details from west to east. The west coast is under a series of weak fronts with showers and near normal temperatures. The southwest U.S. remains largely warm and dry, and this regime spreads into the western half of the plains states. Most of western Canada is cold with outbreaks of snow continuing. The Midwest and eastern plains, southern Mississippi valley are all fairly clear with below normal temperatures. Florida and Georgia will be windy and somewhat cooler than average in a northwest flow.

Closer to the hurricane which is located about 400 miles east-south-east of Washington DC at 0600h, rain has developed in a stalled frontal zone and this will change to snow over WV then later over parts of PA and w MD. A few places will see very heavy snowfalls, and lower down heavy rains will build up as the hurricane moves north then west during the day. These rains could total 100-300 mm in parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and 50-200 mm in the northeast states, all of this mostly accompanied by northeast winds gradually rising to storm force and highs 10-15 C. The Great Lakes will see sleety rain and highs near 5 C. By this evening Eastern time (around midnight in Ireland) the core of the hurricane will come ashore in New Jersey and storm surges already building up could become very severe from Atlantic City to Providence and moderately severe on either side of that zone. Winds will increase in the coastal regions from NJ to MA and could peak at around 50 to 80 mph with gusts to 110 mph, doing considerable damage especially to trees. River flooding will merge with coastal flooding in some parts of New Jersey and Delaware.

This very severe storm will continue all night and heavier rain bands will back up to the northwest eventually reaching the lower Great Lakes. The hurricane conditions will subside along the coast but further storm surges will ebb and flow with the tides. Disruptions could last all week in some places, with clean up going on under cloudy skies and frequent showers in a southerly to southwest gale and temperatures near 10 C. For New York City, the temperatures during the landfall of the hurricane could spike at about 20 to 23 C but this tropical warmth will then be lifted and mixed into the storm rather than moving inland. Temperatures will, however, rise somewhat tonight and tomorrow in parts of NY, NJ and PA as winds veer from NE to ESE. The heaviest rains will be in a zone from near Baltimore to Scranton and extending part way to the Atlantic coast. New England will also get a severe pounding especially coastal south, and heavy rains are possible in VT and w MA.

My local weather was much nicer than recent days (or any of the above) with light winds, blue skies and scattered towering cumulus, a hazy sort of sky with the fall colours at their brightest. Highs reached 12 C.

Continual updates on the U.S. hurricane will be available on the storm thread. Landfall is expected around midnight or 8 p.m. Eastern time. Location is most likely to be just north of Atlantic City NJ but the worst effects will be spread over a large zone mostly to the north of that.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 30 October, 2012

ADVANCE ALERT: A period of very windy weather is expected late Thursday into early Friday, W-NW 40 mph gusts to 60 mph are possible in the northwest and 30-50 mph in other regions, and there could be a stronger interval of gusty west winds on Saturday.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some weak sunshine through increasing high cloud for the south, more overcast to start off the day in the north with showers building up to periods of rain, moving south but remaining dry near the south coast at least until quite late in the day ... winds becoming moderate SW 20-35 mph, increasing by evening to WSW 40 mph especially near northwest coast, and highs near 11 C. Rainfalls 5-10 mm north to 1-3 mm south.

TONIGHT ... Windy with showers, winds SW 25-45 mph, lows near 5 C. Further rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, windy at times, showers or periods of rain, and highs near 10 C. Winds SW 25-45 mph veering to westerly then falling off to 15-30 mph WNW, with some higher gusts during the frontal passage ... squally showers including some hail and thunder may develop with 3-5 mm on average, and highs near 10 C. Turning colder when winds shift more northwesterly later afternoon or evening.

THURSDAY ... Generally breezy and unsettled with a few showers during the day, becoming windy or even stormy in some northern coastal regions by late afternoon or evening, squally and blustery showers then developing, some with hail and thunder. Winds SW 20-30 mph then increasing to WSW veering to WNW in the range of 35-55 mph with possible gusts to 60 mph in exposed northwest locations. Lows 2 to 5 C (morning frost is possible inland east) and highs 9-11 C. Winds veering more to the NNW by evening in Connacht.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C. An interval of very strong winds during the overnight and morning hours should abate back to moderate (NW 30-50 mph at first, then 15-30 mph later) and following some rain it should clear up or become somewhat brighter.

SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with frequent hail or sleet showers, W-NW winds as strong as 40-60 mph in north, 30-50 mph south, some sunny intervals eastern counties ... lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C. The wind intensity is stronger on some models than others, so this remains to be clarified.

SUNDAY ... Continued breezy and cold, hail showers possible. Lows 1-3 C and highs 7-9 C. Some chance of snow developing on northern hills.

MONDAY ... Cold and unsettled, mixed rain and snow showers possible in higher parts of north and a touch of snow on any higher ground, highs generally 4-6 C. North to northeast winds 15-30 mph.

OUTLOOK ... Stronger winds should abate for part of the week at least in a cold northerly flow, slight frosts likely with highs 6-8 C. There may be a somewhat milder easterly flow after a while.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Some sunshine in south-central regions, increasing cloud later ... cloudy with outbreaks of light rain further north, moderate SW winds becoming strong at times later. Highs near 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy with showers, lows near 6 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and squally, hail or thunder ... highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Frequently windy in a cold, unsettled northwest flow, very strong winds at times especially in Scotland and northern England. Highs generally near 8 C south to 5 C north. Snow possible at times on hills.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy rain will move northwest towards the Great Lakes although "Sandy" is slowly weakening inland, much of its major damage is now done. The storm zone on the east coast will have blustery and rather cold weather with south to southwest winds 30-50 mph and highs near 10 C. Higher than normal tidal levels will continue but the worst of the storm surges has come and gone -- many rescues and some recovery operations will probably come to light after daybreak, as most of the early news has concentrated on known situations closer to large cities where media have access. The situation in parts of Long Island and coastal New Jersey sounds rather dire at this point but details are not fully known yet (thousands may be stranded and in harm's way although very high water levels should recede after the secondary high tides this morning).

This coastal rain trends to heavy snow and strong NW winds over the mountains of PA, MD and WV. It would be somewhat milder in coastal New England, about 15 C. The milder Atlantic air will push into parts of the eastern Great Lakes with highs 12-14 C and occasional rain, with some of the heavier rain west of a trough from about Pittsburgh north to Toronto and Sudbury ON, this rain could mix with sleet or hail and winds to the west of that will be northeast 30-50 mph with highs falling off to about 2-4 C around Lake Huron and Lake Michigan.

West of the storm's extensive cloud shield, the Midwest and central plains will be clear and seasonable, trending to warmer than average in the high plains and Rockies, at least ahead of an advancing cold front slicing through Montana and Wyoming. Behind that, rain and snow showers will develop. The warmest weather will be in the southwest and west Texas with highs to about 25 C.

My local weather on Monday was variable, some rain in the morning, some sunny breaks by afternoon, and the high was about 13 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Tuesday 30 October 2012 _ 7 p.m.
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The alert for strong winds on Thursday and Friday is hereby upgraded as most of the reliable models have shown a stronger gradient on their latest output (12z model runs) ... on both days (1-2 Nov) expect some intervals of very strong westerly winds in particular over Connacht and west Ulster although some very strong gusts may translate southeast as these parcels of high energy rotate around the parent low which seems content to stay near northern Scotland throughout.

Given the very low freezing levels and low heights (meaning an arctic vortex has taken up residence by then) mixing down of strong winds will be a simple task for the atmosphere. Gusts to 120 km/h (approx 75 mph) may develop near the northwest coast both mid-day to evening Thursday and Friday. Gusts to 110 km/h or about 70 mph can be expected in some other exposed locations.

These winds are capable of bringing down tree branches and making driving difficult and dangerous especially for high-sided vehicles. Large waves are likely to develop on the west coast in the 10-15 metre range. Storm surge potential is not especially high due to short fetch and time of tidal cycle (0.5 to 1.0 m added to normal tidal ranges). Galway and Donegal Bays could see some minor overtopping of seawalls. The opposite effect might occur on the east coast near low tide (very low water levels).

This alert will be adjusted tomorrow morning as the ever-changing model solutions dictate. I consider the reliability moderate rather than high due to this volatility.

UPDATE on "Sandy" ... remnant low is currently in n/c PA turning north, and the circulation while still very extensive has weakened to the point of saying this is now a fairly normal autumnal low except for its very heavy snowfall rates over parts of WV, VA and NC where some reports of 50 cms have come in already. Bands of showery rainfall continue to rotate around the north side of the storm and steady rain continues to the immediate south. All of these effects will continue to drift north with the ever-weakening centre. That will eventually split into two features, one headed north to the subarctic, and one northeast to Labrador. Any future effects on Ireland would be confined to whatever this eastern feature can do to energize low pressure in the region in about ten days' time -- this could turn out to be very little.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 31 October, 2012

ALERT for strong winds in some parts of the east and south this morning during the passage of two frontal troughs. ADVANCE ALERT for periods of strong winds late Thursday and early Friday, as well as ongoing icy road conditions each night most likely in sheltered rural spots well inland.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain with gusty SW winds will move rapidly east in two waves, Connacht and west Ulster already clearing behind these fronts, but other regions will see them soon with gusts to 60 km/hr or higher. Rain briefly heavy and squally, and with falling leaves blowing around, reduced visibility at times ... gradual clearing will follow with some nice sunny intervals mid-day or afternoon, isolated showers creeping back onto west coast, limited extent but one or two could have hail with them ... highs today near 10 C and rainfall amounts 7-12 mm.

TONIGHT ... The evening should be chilly but not too windy and dry in most places, brief showers in a few others. Relatively clear skies except for cloudy intervals in the northwest where a few sleety showers could develop leaving small amounts of snow on higher summits. Frosty for some with icy roads possible especially in sheltered spots well inland. Lows -3 to +2 C higher values in urban areas and near west, north coasts.

THURSDAY ... Generally breezy and unsettled with a few showers during the day, becoming windy or even stormy in some northern coastal regions by late afternoon or evening, squally and blustery showers then developing, some with hail and thunder. Winds SW 30-50 km/hr then increasing to WSW veering to WNW in the range of 70-90 km/hr with possible gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed northwest locations. Lows 2 to 5 C (morning frost is possible inland east) and highs 9-11 C. Winds veering more to the NNW by evening in Connacht. The overnight period could be quite stormy with strong NW winds and high waves developing west coast, slight storm surge potential for Galway and Donegal Bays (minor overtopping of seawalls possible).

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C. An interval of very strong winds during the overnight and morning hours should abate back to moderate (NW 50-80 km/hr, then 30-50 km/hr later) and following some rain it should clear up or become somewhat brighter. Total rainfalls about 10 mm with some potential for hail or snow to accumulate on higher slopes in north.

SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with frequent hail or sleet showers, W-NW winds as strong as 70-100 km/hr in north, 50-80 km/hr south, some sunny intervals eastern counties ... lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C. The wind speeds could be either a bit higher or a bit lower as guidance is scattered.

SUNDAY ... Continued breezy and cold, hail showers possible. Lows -2 to 3 C with some icy roads around sunrise, and highs only 6-9 C. Some chance of snow developing on northern hills and sleet or mixed precipitation in some locations closer to sea level.

MONDAY ... Cold and unsettled, mixed rain and snow showers possible in higher parts of north and a touch of snow on any higher ground, lows around zero C and highs generally 4-7 C. North to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Stronger winds should abate for part of the week at least in a cold northerly flow, slight frosts likely with highs 6-8 C. There may be a somewhat milder interval after a while, guidance has shifted to more of a westerly theme allowing the Atlantic back in slowly.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy with squally showers developing, some with hail and thunder, highs near 12 C south and 9 C north. Winds SW 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending, cold, some clearing later ... lows 1-3 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, showers developing, sleety rain or snow on hills in north by later in the afternoon and evening. Highs 8-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy at times, very windy in Wales and north-central England, some gusts to 120 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Cold and unsettled, some snow possible as well as sleet or chilly rain as highs only 5-8 C.


Forecasts for North America

Rain will spread northeast into Quebec and it will continue over most regions already dealing with aftermath of Sandy. Thunderstorms will move through New Brunswick and fade out later. Rather mild ahead of the remnant low of Sandy which is now in the Toronto region. Winds have fallen off to light around the central circulation but they remain gusty further out, in the range of 40-80 km/hr. Heavy snow will taper to flurries over the WV-VA-NC mountains. Clear and turning warmer immediately west of the cloud shield of the remnant low, warm as far west as Denver and into the southwest states, highs 18-23 C. Heavy rain moving into British Columbia and Washington state. Mountain snows, then cold and clearing in the Canadian prairies and northern plains states, behind a weak frontal wave in Minnesota that will rotate around the outer edges of former "Sandy" to develop into a low this weekend near Nova Scotia. This weak low brings sleety light rain turning to wet snow.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with some rain at times, foggy in the morning, high of about 12 C. Expecting 50 mm of rain here today.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Wed 31 Oct 2012 _ 8:20 p.m.
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ALERT for strong winds is reinforced by latest guidance. Very strong W gales to storm force winds will develop in Donegal Bay and region to overspread much of exposed Connacht, west Ulster, Clare around mid-afternoon Thursday with peak gusts of 120 km/hr (75 mph) likely. As it will also be quite cold (4-7 C at sea level) during this windstorm, wind-driven hail and snow may create very dangerous driving conditions above sea level where rain and hail showers are more likely.

This severe storm will tend to track southeast across the rest of Ulster into Leinster and may not be as severe in Munster (except Clare and possbily north Kerry into Limerick). However it will become very windy across Munster during the overnight hours. The effects on inland and east coast locations may be somewhat less than on the west coast but could become almost as severe with gusts to 110 km/hr (65 mph) possible, and also the same risk for hail showers and some snow on mountains south of Dublin and in central counties.

A repeat performance is possible Saturday but for now we will post an alert for wind gusts to 100 km/hr ... an interval of more moderate NW winds backing to WSW can be expected later Friday once the Thursday night windstorm moves away into Wales and England. Anyone travelling there should be aware of similar storm potential on Friday as the wind-max rotates around a strong centre of low pressure in Scotland.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 1 November, 2012

Astronomy note: The Moon makes its monthly pass by Jupiter which should appear just above the Moon's north pole high in the southern sky where clear, at about 0100h. This all unfolds above the familiar pattern of Orion. Views of this will be more likely in the south and east, and between scudding clouds -- dress very warmly if taking a look.

ALERT for periods of strong winds late Thursday and early Friday, also during Saturday, strongest gusts in Connacht and west Ulster, locally to 110 km/hr (65 mph) as well as ongoing icy road conditions each night most likely in sheltered rural spots well inland.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Generally breezy and unsettled with a few showers during the day, more frequent in the west and north, then becoming windy or even stormy in some northern coastal regions by late afternoon or evening, more squally and blustery showers then developing, some with hail and thunder. Snow on northern hills. Winds W 30-50 km/hr increasing to WNW in the range of 70-90 km/hr with possible gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed northwest locations. Highs 7-10 C. Rainfall amounts (or equivalent) 3-5 mm.

TONIGHT ... Very windy especially northern half of country, hail showers widespread, some snow accumulations on northern hills, winds WNW 50-80 km/hr with some gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed locations, some large waves possible off northwest coast, high tides in Galway and Donegal Bays running almost a metre above tide tables with minor overtopping of seawalls possible. Somewhat less blustery across the south, in particular around Waterford and Wexford where peak winds of about 30-50 km/hr with gusts to 70 likely. Overnight lows generally 1-3 C with wind chills near -5 C. A few icy patches but widespread slippery roads likely in north and west mainly due to the ongoing hail showers.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers of rain, hail with thunder, snow on northern hills ... highs eventually 7 to 10 C but could be held to 4-6 C in parts of north. The interval of very strong winds during the early morning hours should abate back to moderate (NW 50-80 km/hr, then 30-50 km/hr later). Total rainfalls about 10 mm with some potential for hail or snow to accumulate to 3 cms on higher slopes in north.

FRIDAY NIGHT ... Some limited clearing as hail showers become less frequent, frost developing, icy sections on roads. Lows -3 to +2 C. Continued rather windy near coasts. Snow possible on northern hills.

SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with frequent hail or sleet showers, W-NW winds as strong as 70-100 km/hr in north, 50-80 km/hr south, some sunny intervals eastern counties with highs 7-9 C.

SUNDAY ... Continued breezy and cold, winds veering to west then north in the 30-60 km/hr range mostly, frequent hail showers possible, some risk of snow mixing in especially above 400m elevations. Morning lows -2 to 3 C with some icy roads around sunrise, and highs only 6-9 C.

MONDAY ... Cold and unsettled, mixed rain and snow showers possible in higher parts of north and a touch of snow on any higher ground, lows around zero C and highs generally 4-7 C. North to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Stronger winds should abate for part of the week at least in a cold northerly flow, slight frosts likely with highs 6-8 C. There may be a somewhat milder interval after a while, in more of a westerly regime allowing the Atlantic back in with highs to about 10-12 C. The cold unsettled pattern could then reload around the following weekend (10th-11th).


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Showers developing, some brief sunny intervals mid-day, sleety rain or snow on hills in north by later in the afternoon and evening. Moderate southwest to west winds for most, 40-60 km/hr. Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Becoming very windy especially Wales and northern England, southwest Scotland and parts of Hebrides, winds west to northwest 70-100 km/hr. Also quite windy elsewhere in the 50-70 km/hr range. Widespread cold rain or hail showers with snow developing on higher slopes in Wales, Cumbria and Scotland. Lows 2-4 C and some slippery roads developing.

FRIDAY ... Windy at times, very windy in Wales and north-central England, some gusts to 110 km/hr with pelting hail showers. The south will be marginally better with rain and hail showers, winds gusting to 90 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Windy and cold, frequent rain or hail showers. Lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C. Westerly winds gusting to 80 km/hr stronger gusts at times in west and north.

OUTLOOK ... Cold and unsettled Sunday to about Tuesday, some snow possible as well as sleet or chilly rain as highs only 5-8 C. Milder by end of week, reload of the cold and windy pattern after that.


Forecasts for North America

Widespread light rain now over eastern Canada and northeast U.S., the mountain snows continuing in a few spots, winds more moderate than previous days and turning colder in parts of Ontario, New York state. Outbreaks of light rain or sleet in western Great Lakes as cold, dry air moves slowly south into parts of upper Midwest, northern plains from Canadian prairies, highs generally -4 to -1 C in this air mass. Clear and mild to warm further south especially Arizona to Texas where highs in 20s. Rain on west coast trending to mountain snows.

My local weather on Wednesday was mild and wet, highs near 14 C. Further rain is expected before partial clearing late today.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 2 November, 2012

Situation and Alert status -- General alerts are difficult to describe in what may be a four-day onslaught of chaotic variable conditions with a lot of "moving parts" and risks, so the best advice is to consult the forecasts with a view to combinations of wind, mixed and sometimes wintry precipitation, local fog or frost, all combining to make this a particularly unpleasant period in many parts of Ireland as well as the U.K. if you're travelling. Three major themes for alert status would be cold, windy and squally today, windy and wet on Saturday, cold with risks of snow on Sunday and Monday. Note also that some inland southern valley locations could have freezing fog or freezing rain at times because the more active weather will be found across the north and central counties, and any cold air that has sunk into low-lying areas of the south could be difficult to scour away when precipitation arrives.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers of rain, hail with thunder, snow on northern hills ... highs eventually 7 to 10 C but could be held to 4-6 C in parts of north. Windy or very windy this morning in Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster. Not as windy across the south. Frequent squally showers with hail and upland snow spreading across the country, some falls of 10 to 20 mm in the north. Winds WNW 50-80 km/hr, very poor visibility in some of these heavier mixed showers, icy or slippery roads. Pockets of freezing rain or freezing fog possible this morning in south, until somewhat milder air mixes down. Some accumulations of snow on hills. Slight improvements by afternoon as winds abate to W 30-50 km/hr, but still widely scattered mixed showers as well as brief sunny or brighter intervals.

TONIGHT ... Some limited clearing as hail showers become less frequent, frost developing, icy sections on roads. Lows -3 to +2 C. Continued rather windy near coasts especially northwest, gusts to 60 km/hr. Snow possible on northern hills. Risk of sleet or freezing rain in some inland valley locations.

SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with frequent hail or sleet showers, SW winds as strong as 70-100 km/hr in west, some sunny intervals eastern counties but widespread showers or periods of rain to follow, sleet or snow on hills, some heavy falls at summit levels with severe icing, with highs 7-9 C near sea level and 2-5 C on higher slopes. Precip amounts (liquid equivalent) about 15 mm on average, some heavier amounts in west.

SATURDAY NIGHT ... Snow developing on slopes above 300m could drop lower towards morning, otherwise sleet or light rain, not as windy -- details depend on exact track of low pressure and include the risk of a heavy wet snowfall in many locations above 200m. Lows -1 to 3 C with some isolated frost in south inland.

SUNDAY ... Continued breezy and cold, winds veering to west then north in the 30-60 km/hr range mostly (and possibly becoming east to northeast in some northern regions), frequent hail or sleet showers possible, some risk of snow mixing in especially above 400m elevations. Morning lows -1 to 3 C with some icy roads around sunrise, and highs only 6-9 C ... it could stay as cold as 2-5 C at higher elevations. Snowfall potential at higher elevations 10-20 cms as liquid equivalent of 20 mms rain could fall near sea level.

MONDAY ... Cold and unsettled, mixed rain and snow showers possible in higher parts of north and a touch of snow on any higher ground, lows around zero C and highs generally 4-7 C. North to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Somewhat milder, variable cloud, rain arriving later in northwest, as winds become NW then W 30-50 km/hr. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and mild with periods of rain north, showers south, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Windy, mild, but possibly turning sharply colder around the weekend of 10th-11th as flow becomes more northwesterly again. Some remnants of the energy of "Sandy" may be driving this frontal system. Longer range outlook is for very mild weather in second half of November.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy at times, very windy in Wales and north-central England, some gusts to 100 km/hr with pelting hail showers. The south will be marginally better with rain and hail showers, winds gusting to 80 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, still some mixed showers around, cold with lows between -2 and +3 C ... icy sections on roads in many locations away from milder west coasts.

SATURDAY ... Windy and cold, frequent rain or hail showers. Lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C. Westerly winds gusting to 60 km/hr stronger gusts at times in west and north. Heavy wet snow may develop on hills in Wales and Cumbria, parts of Scotland.

OUTLOOK ... Cold and unsettled Sunday to about Tuesday, some snow possible as well as sleet or chilly rain as highs only 5-8 C. Milder by end of week, reload of the cold and windy pattern after that.


Forecasts for North America

Widespread light rain continuing across the northeast U.S. and eastern Canada, temperatures near 15 C in parts of New England and Maritime provinces, but 3-7 C in Great Lakes and interior northeast. The mountain snow storm will add a few more cms in flurries, and some sleet or flurries will move through parts of the Midwest. Cold across the northern half of the plains states with outbreaks of snow near the border with Canada and into the prairie provinces, 3-7 cm on average. Warm and dry in southwest and Texas, Oklahoma, parts of Kansas, spreading slowly back to east. Rain and fog with partial clearing later on west coast, snow or freezing rain, fog in valleys of Rockies and Cascades.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with occasional rain, and a mild high of about 13 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 3 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for patchy freezing fog and icy roads in some parts of inland south this morning, strong winds developing later on west coast, and upland snow developing overnight and Sunday. These will all be rather limited hazards by area but travel with caution, more widespread hail showers are also possible especially in western regions.

TODAY ... Some patchy freezing fog and icy roads could be encountered north of Cork (city) due to trapped cold air in valleys, more generally, bceoming windy and feeling rather cold with frequent hail or rain showers in western counties where SW winds will be as strong as 70-100 km/hr, by contrast sunny intervals in eastern counties but showers or periods of rain to follow late in the day; sleet or snow on hills, some heavy falls at summit levels, with highs 7-9 C near sea level and 3-6 C on higher slopes. Precip amounts (liquid equivalent) about 15 mm on average, some heavier amounts in west.

TONIGHT ... Snow developing on slopes above 300m could drop lower towards morning, otherwise sleet or light rain, not as windy, as low pressure drifts into Connacht, winds falling off to S-SW 10-20 mph and then calm near the low centre, lows generally 3-5 C but could fall to freezing or -2 C in some parts of the inland south.

SUNDAY ... Continued breezy and rather cold, winds becoming east to northeast from north to south during the day, a cold rain for some near sea level, with brief brighter intervals, hail or sleet showers possible, some risk of snow mixing in especially above 300m elevations, some icy roads around sunrise, roads remaining slippery in some higher rural areas, and highs near sea level only 6-9 C ... it could stay as cold as 2-5 C at higher elevations. Snowfall potential at higher elevations 10-15 cms as liquid equivalent of 15 mms rain could fall near sea level.

MONDAY ... Cold and unsettled, mixed rain and snow showers possible in higher parts of north and a touch of snow on any higher ground, lows around zero C and highs generally 5-8 C. North to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... After a frosty start inland, becoming milder, some sunshine with variable cloud, rain arriving later in northwest, as winds become NW then W 30-50 km/hr. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy and mild with periods of rain north, showers south, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Windy, mild, but possibly turning sharply colder around the weekend of 10th-11th as flow becomes more northwesterly again. Some remnants of the energy of "Sandy" may be driving this frontal system. Longer range outlook continues to indicate very mild weather in second half of November.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Breezy then becoming windy and rather cold, frequent rain or hail showers. Lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C. Westerly winds gusting to 60 km/hr stronger gusts at times in west and north. Heavy wet snow may develop on hills in Wales and Cumbria, parts of Scotland.

TONIGHT ... Windy with outbreaks of rain, trending to sleet and snow on higher slopes. Cold, lows about 3-5 C. Winds SW 40-70 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain and windy across the south, snow on hills, sleet or wet snow developing at lower elevations in Wales and central England, variable cloud and mixed wintry showers for Scotland. Highs near 10 C in southeast, 5-7 C central and north.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, wintry showers, cold. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Frosty to start Tuesday then milder to end of week, reload of the cold and windy pattern likely after that, followed by more mild weather.


Forecasts for North America

Little change with widespread outbreaks of light rain east, chilly, mixing with sleet or wet snow in parts of Great Lakes and Midwest ... sunny and mild to warm across most of the southern states extending into parts of the central plains states ... clear and cold across much of the prairies and northern plains ... snow in the western mountains and rain on the west coast, fog and rather mild. Becoming very windy later on the B.C. and Alaska coasts.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy with a bit of rain at times but mostly dry with highs near 10 C. Heavy rain is now moving in.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 4 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

SUNDAY ... Continued breezy and rather cold, winds becoming east to northeast from north to south during the day, intervals of rain for some near sea level, with brief brighter intervals, hail or sleet showers possible, some risk of snow mixing in especially above 400m elevations, with roads remaining slippery in some higher rural areas, and highs near sea level only 6-9 C ... it could stay as cold as 2-5 C at higher elevations. There may be longer dry intervals in north Connacht and parts of Ulster with limited sunshine there. Otherwise, rainfall potential 5-15 mm with some heavy falls of wet snow at high elevations.

TONIGHT ... Rain, sleet and hill snows continuing, some further accumulation of snow above 250m. Lows near sea level 2-5 C. Winds E-NE 15-30 mph adding some chill.

MONDAY ... Cold and unsettled, mixed rain and snow showers possible in higher parts of north and a touch of snow on any higher ground, lows around zero C and highs generally 5-8 C. North to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... After a frosty start inland, becoming milder, some sunshine with variable cloud, rain arriving later in northwest, as winds become NW then W 30-50 km/hr. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy and mild with periods of rain north, showers south, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Windy, mild, but possibly turning sharply colder around the weekend of 10th-11th as flow becomes more northwesterly again. Some remnants of the energy of "Sandy" may be driving this frontal system. Longer range outlook continues to indicate very mild weather in second half of November.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Periods of rain and rather windy across the south, snow on hills, sleet or wet snow developing at lower elevations in Wales and central England, variable cloud and mixed wintry showers for Scotland. Highs near 10 C in southeast, 5-7 C central and north.

TONIGHT ... Rain, sleet and hill snow continuing, cold, lows 2-5 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, wintry showers, cold. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Frosty to start Tuesday then milder to end of week, reload of the cold and windy pattern likely after that, followed by more mild weather.


Forecasts for North America

Rain from remnants of Sandy is now mostly confined to far eastern Canada as low pressure emerges slowly into the Atlantic. Secondary frontal waves will bring a few showers or melting flurries of snow across parts of the inland northeast and Great Lakes. Dry and cold in many regions west of Montreal to Pittsburgh as arctic high pressure crests over Minnesota. Much milder in Alberta as a chinook develops, and mild rainy weather moves across the mountains as far as the Rockies, foggy near the coast. Warm and dry across the southwest and south central U.S.

My local weather on Saturday was rainy and foggy with a mild high of 14 C.

We are now about to change back to standard time in North America, so back to the usual time differences.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 5 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

MONDAY ... Patches of frost and freezing fog will make some roads slippery in various inland regions this morning, but the sun will be out around most of the coastal regions except east Ulster where rain or hail showers will be more frequent, trending to snow on high ground. There could be some isolated mixed showers in other parts of Ireland later, but many places will stay dry and sunny to partly cloudy, with the highs generally 7 to 10 C in a moderate northerly wind of 30-50 km/hr. Rainfall equivalents about 2-5 mm in parts of Ulster, otherwise largely zero to 2 mm.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, cold, frost and fog patches, lows -3 to +2 C. Some slippery roads are likely outside larger towns and cities and away from the outer coast which could stay a bit milder especially in the west.

TUESDAY ... After a frosty start inland, becoming milder, some sunshine with variable cloud, rain arriving later in northwest, as winds become NW then W 30-50 km/hr. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy and mild with periods of rain north, showers south, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, mild, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain developing, lows about 5 C and highs 10-12 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and rather mild on Saturday, turning colder on Sunday, mixed showers in north and west on higher ground. Highs 10-12 C on Saturday and 7-9 C on Sunday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The models at present are fairly much in agreement that the east coast U.S. storm expected later this week will move gradually across the Atlantic but will veer far enough north, despite being rather intense, that the effects on Ireland appear moderate rather than strong -- this could change but so far there is no strong indication of a severe storm outcome. Beyond that event expected around Tuesday 13th (at the new moon) the pattern appears rather mild but more settled.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy although some sunshine developing in north-central regions, wintry showers across parts of the south, pockets of very dense freezing fog and severe frost in northeast England and Scotland may be slow to dissipate. Generally quite cold. Highs 6-9 C but may remain 2-5 C in some eastern valleys.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, isolated wintry showers, cold with a sharp frost developing, fog in some valleys becoming freezing fog, slippery roads rather widespread. Lows -5 to +2 C with mildest readings in west coast and greater London regions.

TUESDAY ... Milder especially in western regions, moderate NW winds, some light rain spreading into western Scotland later afternoon. Highs 6-9 C east to 10-12 C west.

WEDNESDAY ... Showers, mild and windy. Highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland as per above forecasts. Northern Scotland could become very windy at times over the weekend and around the 13th and 14th.

Forecasts for North America

With the presidential election on Tuesday in the U.S., here's a brief look at the next two days in general. Western regions mild and dry, quite warm for time of year, rain spreading into WA (and western Canada) on Tuesday. A strong chinook for Montana and Alberta. Highs could reach 15 C. A weak disturbance spreading light rain southeast from Missouri today will develop into a stronger rainstorm for the southeast states on Tuesday. Warm and dry today in Florida but becoming stormy there tomorrow. Cool and dry both days on the east coast and inland northeast with just a few isolated flurries today near the Great Lakes in a cold northerly flow of about 15-25 mph. Highs both days around 4-7 C inland and 8-12 C on the coast. The only part of the country likely to see weather disruptions of voting might be the states of Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina which are not considered to be "in play" but northern-central Florida severe storms could influence the outcome in that state. Meanwhile, the storm system over the southeast on Tuesday will move north and create a "nor'easter" for the storm-ravaged northeast, winds appear more moderate than strong but it will be quite chilly and sleet or snow could develop some distance inland from the coast. This storm will probably last into Thursday before tracking northeast into Nova Scotia and then Newfoundland later in the week.

My local weather on Sunday was foggy with light rain at times, and very mild, highs near 14 C. Expecting some hazy sunshine and very mild on Monday.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 6 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Milder air has flooded in overnight, making for a drizzly start in some places, generally cloudy with some sunshine later despite variable cloud, and light rain arriving later in northwest, as winds become NW then W 30-50 km/hr. Highs 9-12 C and most places dry, some scattered rainfalls of about 1-2 mm.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and mild with lows generally 4-7 C, could be somewhat colder in any clear spots inland south with ground frost in a few locations. Drizzle or light rain at times in northwest otherwise dry.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy and mild, winds WSW 40-60 km/hr, with periods of light rain north and west, turning more to showers south and east, and highs 10 to 12 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, mild, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain developing, lows about 5 C and highs 10-12 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and rather mild on Saturday, turning a bit colder on Sunday with a spell of dry weather followed by late periods of rain and gusty winds, highs 10-12 C on Saturday and 7-9 C on Sunday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The model consensus remains moderately windy as the outcome of the east coast U.S. storm being discussed as a nor'easter for Wednesday-Thursday -- this should move gradually northeast towards Iceland but the circulation will definitely affect Ireland, but with moderate rather than strong winds according to most guidance (strong winds could sweep across parts of the Atlantic as it approaches). This breezy and unsettled weather looks set to continue most of the week and a secondary low forming in the circulation could prove to be the windiest part of the week. Very mild weather seems likely to follow during the next week (19th to 25th).

]Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Milder especially in western regions, frost and icy roads in some parts of south central England this morning but this should rapidly clear as moderate W to NW winds bring milder air with some light rain spreading into western Scotland later afternoon, patchy drizzle elsewhere and brief sunny intervals. Highs 6-9 C east to 10-12 C west.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and milder than previous nights, lows 3-6 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Showers, mild and windy. Highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland as per above forecasts. Northern Scotland could become very windy at times over the weekend and around the 13th and 14th.

Forecasts for North America

In general, a fairly dry and mild election day in store for most parts of the U.S.A. but heavy rain in parts of the southeast. Temperatures will be above normal in most of the west and somewhat below in parts of the east and northeast, and there could be some light showers in New England and parts of the Midwest. The heavy rain in the southeast will spawn a "nor'easter" type storm overnight and this will affect the storm-ravaged northeast coastal and inland regions tomorrow into early Thursday with coastal rain, inland sleet or snow and moderate E-NE winds. Meanwhile, the mild spell "out west" will spread across large parts of western Canada as well in a chinook pattern, although this won't last very long in central Alberta where snow may develop by tonight or tomorrow. Highs could reach 15 C closer to the border.

My local weather on Monday was fair and very mild with a high of 14 C, some hazy sunshine through higher cloud.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 7 November, 2012


Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy to windy and mild, winds WSW 40-60 km/hr, with periods of light rain north and west, turning more to showers south and east, and highs 10 to 12 C. Rainfalls generally 3-5 mm.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy to overcast, showers ending, mild, lows 4-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy with just patchy drizzle in north and west near coasts, mild, highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain developing, lows about 5 C and highs 10-12 C.

SATURDAY ... A rather mild overnight period (lows 5-7 C) will be followed by mostly cloudy, breezy and turning colder in stages, with highest temperatures 9-10 C likely to be early in the day as readings fall slightly through the afternoon in westerly to northwesterly winds of 30-50 km/hr and frequent showers, some with hail and thunder

SUNDAY ... Patchy and isolated frost (lows -1 to +3 C) will be followed by a relatively dry day with isolated showers, some sunshine, then increasing cloud and strengthening SW winds by evening, periods of rain.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy with periods of rain, winds SW 40-70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy with showers, moderate rather than strong winds as it still appears likely, gusting to perhaps 80 km/hr. Highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, near normal to mild temperatures.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Showers developing later, mild and windy. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... A few showers, breezy, mild, lows 5-8 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, mild. Highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland as per above forecasts. Northern Scotland could become very windy at times over the weekend and around the 13th and 14th.

Forecasts for North America

Raw and unpleasant for most of the northeast with coastal rain, strong E to NE winds gusting to 45 mph and inland sleet, snow. Highs only 4-7 C coast and 1-3 C inland. The cool, dry air mass further north will provide some limited sunshine to parts of the Great Lakes region in near-freezing temperatures and some flurries in east winds coming off the lower Great Lakes. Clear and cool to the west of a secondary frontal band of sleet and wet snow in the Ohio valley, trending to warm and dry further west, in fact record warmth could spread out of the desert regions towards the central plains states (western half of KS-OK). A chinook will blast across parts of the Montana-Alberta border regions but it will be quickly followed by colder weather and snow will develop north of Calgary where the chinook will not set in. Meanwhile, clearing with isolated showers or flurries near the west coast in a colder northeast flow out of strong arctic high pressure located well to the north over Yukon and Alaska.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with occasional rain, clearing during the evening, and turning a bit colder, after an early high near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 8 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast with just patchy drizzle in north and west near coasts, mild, highs near 12 C. Winds backing to SW 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain developing, winds SW 30-50 km/hr, lows 6-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain clearing to isolated showers and partly cloudy, continued mild, winds SSW 30-50 km/hr, and highs 10-12 C.

SATURDAY ... A rather mild overnight period (lows 5-7 C) will be followed by mostly cloudy, breezy and turning colder in stages, with highest temperatures 9-10 C likely to be early in the day as readings fall slightly through the afternoon in westerly to northwesterly winds of 30-50 km/hr and frequent showers, some with hail and thunder, some falls of snow possible on hills in Connacht and west Ulster.

SUNDAY ... Patchy and isolated frost (lows -1 to +3 C) will be followed by a relatively dry day with isolated showers, some sunshine, highs 8-10 C, then increasing cloud and strengthening SW winds by evening, periods of rain into Monday morning.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy with periods of rain, winds SW 40-70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy with showers, moderate rather than strong winds as it still appears likely, gusting to perhaps 80 km/hr. Highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, near normal to mild temperatures. Some hints on the models of a wet secondary low forming to the south and moving in around Thursday 15th. Mild for a few days, then possibly colder towards the end of November with the risk of snow increasing.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, mild. Highs near 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Breezy to windy, mild with showers or periods of rain developing, lows 6-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and mild, rain at times, highs 11-13 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Windy especially late Saturday, turning colder in stages with mixed wintry showers developing across west and north, sunny intervals more frequent east and south. Highs near 9 C on Saturday and Sunday, some scattered frost developing Sunday morning.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland as per above forecasts. Northern Scotland could become very windy at times around the 13th and 14th.

Forecasts for North America

The nor'easter (which dropped 15-30 cms snow in the NYC region and sleet in Boston) will slowly move away with mixed precip becoming more showery before ending, winds N-NE 40-70 km/hr. The storm will intensify for eastern Canada with rain and strong winds, inland sleet or snow. Cool and dry from Great Lakes south and southwest towards the eastern Gulf coast, but very mild in central and most western regions. Very cold air has moved south into all parts of western Canada and will edge slowly into the Dakotas and Montana ahead of a developing snowstorm located in Idaho and Wyoming. This will bring 15-30 cms of snow in blizzard-like conditions to the northern plains and southern prairies next 48h in strong east to northeast winds and highs near -5 C. Sunny and very cold further north. The cold air has limited clout for the west coast which will have partly cloudy and showery conditions and highs 5-8 C, trending to showers and 15 C in northern California and warm/dry further south.

My local weather was partly sunny on Wednesday with highs near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 9 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Periods of rain (10-20 mm) moving through east Ulster and Leinster this morning, clearing then followed by isolated showers ... further west this clearing has already begun and the showers will arrive about mid-day in generally partly cloudy skies, continued mild, winds SSW 30-50 km/hr veering more to WSW by afternoon, and highs 10-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, a few showers, some with hail or sleet on higher ground. Lows generally 3-5 C but could fall to near freezing in a few parts of the inland north leading to patchy frost and icy or slippery roads in a few locations. Winds WSW 20-40 km/hr on average, gusty in exposed coastal locations.

SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, breezy and where it warms at all during the morning hours, most likely southeast, then turning colder in stages, with highest temperatures 9-10 C (could be 5-7 C in parts of north) likely to be early in the day as readings fall through the afternoon in westerly to northwesterly winds of 30-50 km/hr and frequent showers, some with hail and thunder, some falls of snow possible on hills in Connacht and west Ulster. Wintry showers may continue in the north past midnight before a general clearing sets in, but further south most of the night may become clear.

SUNDAY ... Patchy and isolated frost (lows -1 to +3 C) will be followed by a relatively dry day with isolated showers, some sunshine, highs 8-10 C, then increasing cloud and strengthening SW winds by evening, periods of rain into Monday morning.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy with periods of rain, winds SW 40-70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mm.

TUESDAY ... Windy with showers or periods of rain, 15-25 mm potential, moderate S-SW winds 40-70 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Probably unsettled most of the time with chance of a steady rainfall around Thursday, continued rather mild, highs 8-10 C, only a slight chance of frost.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There should be a dry interval with continued mild daytime temperatures, frost at night, then trending to windy, unsettled and mild towards the last week of November. If the 14-16 day GFS outlook maps were correct, it could become very windy (confidence in this is low at this early stage).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Increasing cloud east, showers or periods of rain already in western regions moving east to begin as late as mid-afternoon in London region, windy (SW 50-80 km/hr) and mild, highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain to showers, clearing later in parts of Scotland, northwest England and north Wales, lows 5-8 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Windy especially late Saturday, turning colder in stages with mixed wintry showers developing across west and north, sunny intervals more frequent east and south. Highs near 9 C on Saturday and Sunday, some scattered frost developing Sunday morning.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland as per above forecasts. Northern Scotland could become very windy at times around the 13th and 14th. Rainfall totals likely to be considerably above normal in north and west, trending to near normal in the southeast.

Forecasts for North America

The nor'easter will now rapidly evolve into a windstorm for eastern Canada as it tracks into Labrador, most of its rainfall should sweep east of Newfoundland by tonight with mixed wintry showers developing in a brisk westerly gusting to 120 km/hr. The storm-ravaged northeast will finally catch a break with partly cloudy and somewhat milder weather and milder conditions ahead for the weekend. This mild air (highs 17-23 C) is streaming north ahead of a developing Wyoming storm system that will spread 20-40 cm of snow into Montana, North Dakota and the southern parts of the Canadian prairies. The west coast and northern prairies are under clear, cold high pressure although it is much colder inland (near -15 C) than on the coast (near 5 C). My local weather on Thursday was in fact sunny with a high near 6 C and it is clear and frosty out now at quarter to midnight.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 10 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, breezy and (once a few cold spots warm up a bit) turning colder in stages, with highest temperatures 8-10 C (could be 5-7 C in parts of north) as readings fall through the afternoon in westerly to northwesterly winds of 30-50 km/hr and frequent showers, some with hail and thunder, and with some falls of snow possible on hills in Connacht and west Ulster. Rainfall (or equivalent) about 3-5 mm on average.

TONIGHT ... Less windy particularly across the south after midnight, some frost developing inland, while a few mixed or wintry showers may continue in the north past midnight before a more general clearing sets in, lows -2 to +3 for most, 3-6 C near west coast as breeze continues from west to northwest.

SUNDAY ... Patchy and isolated frost with some icy sections of road will be followed by a relatively dry day with isolated showers, some sunshine, highs 8-10 C, then increasing cloud and strengthening SW winds by evening, periods of rain into Monday morning. Not very windy except near north coast where W backing SW 30-50 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy with periods of rain, winds SW 40-70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mm.

TUESDAY ... Windy with showers or periods of rain, 15-25 mm potential, moderate S-SW winds dropping off to light. Lows near 7 C and highs 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Probably unsettled most of the time with chance of a steady rainfall around Thursday, continued rather mild, highs 8-10 C, only a slight chance of frost.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There should be a dry interval with continued mild daytime temperatures, frost at night, then trending to windy, unsettled and mild towards the last week of November. A very windy period is possible around the 21st to 23rd.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers becoming more frequent with hail and thunder, some snow on higher peaks in north. Highs 8-10 C and winds increasing to WNW 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Isolated showers, less windy, some frost well inland, lows -2 to +3 and some icy or slippery roads developing.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, not as windy but some isolated showers continuing north and east. Highs 9-11 C south to 5-8 C north.

MONDAY ... Windy with periods of rain, highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, milder, some periods of rain.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy snow (20-40 cms) will develop across southern Manitoba and nearby parts of SK, ND and MT, and severe freezing rain could hit eastern North Dakota, ahead of much warmer air moving north with rain and fog in parts of the northern plains and Midwest. Very mild air will push into parts of the northeast and lower Great Lakes bringing highs up to 15 C (the first nine days of the month have averaged 5 deg below normal in this region, but this would be the same amount above normal). Even warmer air will cover the southeast and bring highs of 20-25 C. The west coast will see variable cloud and showers while clear, cold air continues to cover the inland parts of B.C., northern Alberta and Saskatchewan.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and cool with a high of 6 C, frost overnight.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.


Sunday, 11 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Isolated wintry showers, frost and fog patches, with some icy sections of road, will give way to a relatively dry day with some sunshine, highs 8-10 C, then increasing cloud and strengthening SW winds by evening, periods of rain into Monday morning. Not very windy except near north coast where W backing SW 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Windy and mild with 10-20 mm of rain, winds SW 30-50 km/hr, lows 5-8 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy with periods of rain, winds SW 40-70 km/hr, and highs near 11 C. Further rainfalls 10-20 mm.

TUESDAY ... Windy with showers or periods of rain, 15-25 mm potential, moderate S-SW winds dropping off to light. Lows near 7 C and highs 12-14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain becoming drizzly with fog developing, light south to southeast winds, turning slightly colder in eastern counties, lows 5-7 C and highs 8-11 C mildest near southwest coast.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, mostly dry, cool. Slight risk of frost, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain, lows 0-3 C and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, mild, becoming rather windy at times.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, westerly breezes (stronger in north) with some isolated showers continuing north and east, wintry on higher ground. Highs 9-11 C south to 5-8 C north.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals east, cloudy west with rain arriving by morning, winds increasing to SW 40-60 km/hr. Lows 2-5 C east, 5-8 C west.

MONDAY ... Windy with periods of rain, highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, milder, some periods of rain, similar to Ireland in longer term. Some severe frosts likely around Thursday in southeast, persistent dense fog may develop there.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy snow (20-40 cms) continuing to mid-day across southern Manitoba and nearby parts of SK, ND and MT, and severe freezing rain in parts of eastern North Dakota, northern Minnesota, ahead of much warmer air moving north with rain and fog in parts of the northern plains and Midwest, heavy or severe storms which hit Kansas on Saturday will be re-developing along cold front mid-day from Iowa to Arkansas. Very mild air will push steadily into the northeast states and lower Great Lakes regions, bringing highs up to 15-20 C. Even warmer air will cover the southeast and bring highs of 20-25 C. Windy and turning colder in the central plains states, strong N-NW winds, highs 3-7 C. The west coast will see variable cloud and showers while clear, cold air continues to cover the inland parts of B.C., northern Alberta and Saskatchewan, with outbreaks of snow in parts of central B.C.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and cool with a high of 6 C, frost overnight, expecting cloud and sleet turning to rain on Sunday.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.


Monday, 12 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy to windy with morning drizzle clearing east, further periods of rain likely by afternoon or evening especially over western counties, any mid-day bright intervals could boost temperatures to 14-15 C, otherwise highs about 12 C ... winds SW 30-60 km/hr, and further rainfalls 5-10 mm with lesser amounts central and southeast.

TONIGHT ... Very mild with occasional drizzle or light rain, some heavier bursts in western regions, 5-15 mm rainfalls ... lows 7 to 10 C ... dense fog may develop near south coast.

TUESDAY ... Windy with showers or periods of rain, 15-25 mm potential, moderate SSW winds 30-50 km/hr dropping off to light, highs 12-14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain becoming drizzly with fog developing, light south to southeast winds, turning slightly colder in eastern counties, lows 5-7 C and highs 8-11 C mildest near southwest coast.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, mostly dry, cool. Slight risk of frost, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain, lows 0-3 C and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy on Saturday with isolated showers, mild, highs near 11 C. Unsettled, mild, becoming rather windy at times Sunday and Monday, different models have various outcomes but all seem to develop one of the systems in this outlook period to produce strong SW winds between Sunday night (18th) and Tuesday night (20th). The pattern could then stay quite unsettled into the last week of November.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Breezy to windy with periods of rain, fog especially on western hills, highs near 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Foggy, mild, drizzle at times, lows 7-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, showers or periods of rain, highs 11-13C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, milder, some periods of rain, similar to Ireland in longer term. Some severe frosts likely around Thursday in southeast, persistent dense fog may develop there.


Forecasts for North America

Very mild on the east coast, highs to 23 C ... showers and thunderstorms moving gradually east through the Great Lakes, Ohio valley and inland southeast, with a sharp drop in temperatures late in the day, clear and cold in the Midwest and northern plains with highs 2-5 C, even colder over deep snow cover in western Canada (-5 C) ... warm and dry in the southwest, rain moving onto the west coast north of central California with mountain snow, rather cold. My local weather on Sunday was raw and unpleasant with a bit of sleet followed by rain, and reports of snow on local hills, as the sea level temperature held steady near 5 C. The rain has become drizzly this evening, the daily amount was probably less than 15 mm.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 13 November, 2012

New moon occurs late today (2209h) and there will be a total eclipse of the Sun in parts of northern Australia and the nearby Pacific. This is a perigeean new moon so expect high tides to run a bit above normal on the south coast in particular.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and very mild with showers or periods of rain, spreading south and becoming rather heavy in parts of the west this morning, 15-30 mm potential with heaviest falls around west Munster and Connacht, moderate SSW winds 30-50 km/hr dropping off to 20-40 km/hr, highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing in a steady 20-30 km/hr south wind, foggy, very mild, lows 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain becoming drizzly with fog developing, light south to southeast winds, turning slightly colder in eastern counties but remaining very mild further west, with highs 9-13 C mildest near southwest coast.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, mostly dry, apart from some lingering drizzle near northern coasts, cooler. Slight risk of frost, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain, lows 0-3 C and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy on Saturday with isolated showers, mild, highs near 11 C. Unsettled, mild, becoming rather windy at times Sunday and Monday, still no model consensus on a strong wind event and hints that this may develop a bit later in the week, so stay tuned on the details, but the week seems likely to be generally windy and unsettled. As of the latest model run, the UK model seems most aggressive on development for Sunday, the consensus of leading models would suggest SW winds of 40-70 km/hr and possibly stronger mid-week. These details may change as we get a clearer indication of how this system is developing near Bermuda in the next 36 hours, on its way into the main jet stream across the Atlantic.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, showers or periods of rain, highs 11-14C.

TONIGHT ... Showers or periods of rain, mild, lows 7-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... A bit colder in parts of the southeast as rain or drizzle continue, foggy. Highs near 11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... similar to Ireland in longer term. Some severe frosts likely around Thursday in southeast, persistent dense fog may develop there. The possible Sunday-Monday wind event would affect mainly western Scotland and could miss southern England altogether.


Forecasts for North America

Mild with rain in New England and eastern Canada, turning dry and cool (5-7 C) further west across the Great Lakes with extensive cloud. Sunny intervals and cold across snow-covered northern plains and prairies, highs near -5 C. Warm and dry across the southwest and south central U.S., and showery on the west coast, near normal temperatures. My local weather on Monday was drizzly and foggy and somewhat milder with a high near 8 C.

The forum has an active thread to discuss the Sunday-Monday storm potential, check in for updates through the day.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 14 November, 2012

ALERT for possible dense fog in rural areas tonight, with near-zero visibility in some valley locations near lakes or rivers. One or two places could see frost with this, leading to black ice but that is likely to be confined to one or two isolated locations in the north.

EDITED BY REDSUNSET
Inserting image to give visual representation of possible limited visibility. Not confined to areas highlighted and could be severe in places come morning.




Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain becoming drizzly and mostly confined to northern regions, 3-5 mm further accumulation there, with patchy fog developing, light south to southeast winds, remaining very mild in most parts with highs 11-13 C but with the slack gradient, a few valley or coastal locations could become colder as fog develops.

TONIGHT ... Extensive low cloud, mist and scattered dense fog mostly in valleys well inland, some cases of near-zero visibility, lows generally 2-5 C but could fall to about -1 C with frost in a few clear spots inland north.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, mostly dry, apart from some lingering drizzle near northern coasts, but fog may be persistent in some inland districts as slack winds fail to break up an inversion layer, generally the day will be cooler than recently with highs 7-9 C (could be 10-11 C in any sunshine in southwest though).

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain spreading slowly south from Donegal and Mayo, morning lows 0-3 C and afternoon highs near 10 C. Some sunshine is possible in the south during the morning. Rainfall amounts generally rather light, 5-10 mm in north. Winds SW 25-40 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, moderate westerly breezes, morning lows 4-7 C and afternoon highs 9-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy with showers, slight risk of strong winds but most likely moderate SW 30-50 km/hr with some gusts to 70 km/hr in exposed coastal locations. Lows 5-8 C and highs 10-12 C.

MONDAY ... Windy, showers or periods of rain. Highs near 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and sometimes windy all of next week, the low we have been tracking seems likely to develop at least one secondary centre that may in fact become stronger by mid-week than the weekend primary low, and so there is a risk of a strong wind event mid-week. Details will remain very uncertain until the primary low "gets its act together" -- at the moment it is barely in its early stages of development south of Bermuda.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Hazy or foggy in places, generally rather mild with highs 8-12 C, some dense fog may develop in valleys. Rain across parts of the north will become drizzly with mist and fog on hills.

TONIGHT ... Extensive low cloud, mist or fog, some patchy dense fog, any clear spots may develop frost and black ice conditions on roads (this most likely inland east and south). Lows -1 to +4 C.

THURSDAY ... Mist or fog may be slow to clear, light winds, hazy sunshine in a few spots. Highest temperatures will depend on how quickly the low cloud breaks up, and could range from 5 to 10 C. Coastal locations in west are more likely to see a bit of sun and milder readings.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Although the pattern will be generally similar to Ireland, the onset of stronger winds and any rainfall may be delayed in the southeast and it could remain largely dry and calm there. Milder in central and northern regions and becoming very windy by late Sunday in western Scotland. Highs about 9-11 C for most places.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and sometimes windy next week, rather mild with highs 8-10 C.


Forecasts for North America

For a change, there is very little active weather to report, as high pressure has become extensive almost coast to coast across the northern half of the U.S. and adjacent southern Canada. Temperatures are generally on the cold side except in the desert southwest, Texas and parts of far eastern Canada. However, the presence or absence of snow cover makes a big difference with the low sun angle at this time of year, so highs will vary from near 8 C in the snow-free northeast states to -5 C in the upper Midwest and northern plains over snow, although there is really not much of a difference in air mass. Highs in the warmer southwest are running closer to 20-25 C. Systems have weakened near the Pacific coast also and low cloud will gradually break to partly cloudy skies. My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy but dry with a high of about 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 15 November, 2012

ALERT continued for dense fog which should partially clear during the day but then may return in many places tonight with once again the risk of near-zero visibilities in valleys and patchy frost causing a few areas of "black ice" towards sunrise. ADVANCE ALERT for possible strong winds and locally heavy rainfalls Sunday night, confidence is moderate on this and the event may either develop later or become a two-part strong wind episode.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning fog and mist, some brighter intervals mid-day although it may stay rather misty over hills, patchy rain in west Connacht giving 3-5 mm to some parts of west then central counties before dissipating ... light winds and rather chilly unless the sun breaks through, highs 6-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Extensive fog and mist, some patchy dense fog and isolated risks of frost, black ice on roads (this most likely inland north) ... lows in the range -1 to +4 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, some sunny intervals developing, showers near north and west coasts, light to moderate SW winds. Highs 8-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, a few showers, lows near 3 C and highs about 9-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Clear intervals overnight with frost, then increasing cloud, rain and strong winds possible by afternoon west, evening east. Potential for winds to reach SSW 50-80 km/hr, rainfalls overnight into Monday 15-30 mm. Lows -2 to +4 C and highs 7-11 C late in the day.

MONDAY ... Windy with showers, lows 4-7 C and highs 9-11 C, winds veering more to SW.

OUTLOOK ... The week is likely to remain quite unsettled with the Sunday night low spinning around and firing off secondary disturbances from time to time. As this system is already somewhat uncertain (it is only now forming near Bermuda) the further evolution is obviously "low confidence" but I have the feeling that a stronger storm than Sunday's event is possible within the week. Highs in any case should be rather mild on average, 8-11 C. Longer range models are hinting at much colder weather to follow around the last days of the month into early December.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Widespread fog or mist, staying rather cold in any dense fog inland east and south, some brighter intervals west, highs in range 5-10 C depending on influence of fog ... Scotland likely somewhat brighter with isolated showers. Highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Further dense fog and mist, lows -2 to +4 C, some patchy frost and "black ice" conditions on some roads.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers in some northern areas, breezy by afternoon north and west, fog could remain in parts of southeast. Highs around 8 C on average.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland, but the southeast could remain rather misty or foggy well into the weekend as the stronger winds won't make much of an impact on that region until perhaps Monday.


Forecasts for North America

Across most of the U.S., dry and chilly northern half trending to dry and mild southern states into California. Patchy rain near North Carolina coast and across Newfoundland from decaying front that will be picking up the Bermuda low near Nova Scotia tonight. That will spread a bit of rain into coastal regions of eastern Canada on Friday. Another weak system will spread rain onto the central B.C. coast and Alaska panhandle; further inland, the air above the snow pack is now a bit milder but light winds will create a surface inversion and widespread fog (freezing mist in some parts). For mid-November this is a rather quiet weather pattern. It may eventually produce an east coast snowstorm near the end of the month. Meanwhile, my local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy with hazy sun and small-scale towering cumulus, no precip, highs near 10 C.

The Sunday night storm potential continues to oscillate on each model run, check the forum thread for latest updates through rest of today. I may update the outlook in this forecast thread around 7-9 p.m.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Thursday 15 November 2012 _ 6:45 p.m.
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The ADVANCE ALERT is upgraded for Sunday (late) into Monday for strong winds now expected to reach 60 km/hr gusting to 90 with potential for isolated stronger gusts to 120 km/hr in coastal regions and higher terrain. Rainfalls of 20-35 mm can be expected mid-day Sunday onward with this system which all models now agree will pass to the northwest of Mayo-Donegal around midnight Sunday into Monday. There are indications of a second possibly equally strong system developing in the circulation around Tuesday night. Further updates with the morning forecast at 0700h.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 16 November, 2012

ADVANCE ALERT for possible strong winds and locally heavy rainfalls Sunday from mid-day to late overnight into Monday, S to SW winds 50-80 km/hr and possibly higher gusts near west and south coasts, rainfalls 20-35 mm.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Variable cloud, some sunny intervals developing, showers near north and west coasts, light to moderate SW winds. Highs 8-10 C. Rainfalls generally 3-5 mm but some parts of east and south could remain dry.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, a few showers in most areas but somewhat heavier rain moving through the southeast, 5-10 mm possible there. Lows 3-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy (W 25-40 km/hr), a few showers, and highs about 9-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Clear intervals overnight with frost in some inland south-central valleys, then increasing cloud, rain and strong winds possible by afternoon west, evening east. Winds SSW 50-80 km/hr, possibly higher gusts in a few exposed coastal locations, rainfalls overnight into Monday 15-35 mm. Morning lows -2 to +4 C and highs 7-11 C late in the day.

MONDAY ... Windy with showers, lows 4-7 C and highs 9-11 C, winds veering more to SW and falling off to moderate 35-55 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Breezy to windy with showers or periods of rain, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C, southerly winds 40-70 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and showery for several more days with highs 8-10 C and winds sometimes reaching 50-80 km/hr.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Frost or fog slowly dissipating, milder in most regions by afternoon, variable cloud, showers in some northern areas, breezy by afternoon north and west, fog could remain or at least low cloud and mist, in parts of southeast. Highs around 8 C on average.

TONIGHT ... Showers to periods of rain heaviest around south Wales, mild with lows about 5-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy, mild, rain to showers. Highs near 12 C south, 9 C Scotland and northern England.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland, but the southeast could remain rather misty or foggy well into the weekend as the stronger winds won't make much of an impact on that region until perhaps Monday. Strongest winds likely for Scotland, northwest England, north Wales around Monday early miorning and again around Tuesday night, Thursday night. Highs remaining close to 10 C and largely frost-free nights.


Forecasts for North America

A very quiet weather pattern continues with sprawling high pressure although considerable cloud in most regions, some hazy sunshine getting through in the southeast and parts of the desert southwest. Highest temperatures range from near normal values in the east (7-12 C) to rather warm in Arizona to west Texas (22-25 C) but there are few frontal features in between. The snow cover remains intact over the northern plains and prairie provinces of Canada, and temperatures are close to freezing as milder Pacific air creates an inversion -- this will break down with stronger winds later today and into the weekend, allowing a mild chinook pattern and some melting (or evaporation) of the snow. A weak front is moving through northern Ontario dropping 1-3 cms of snow. The storm developing for Ireland on Sunday is now located southeast of Newfoundland and is spreading rain and northeast winds into the Avalon peninsula. My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy with a high near 10 C and light winds.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.


Saturday, 17 November, 2012

ALERT for possible strong winds and locally heavy rainfalls Sunday from mid-day to late overnight into Monday, S to SW winds 50-80 km/hr and possibly higher gusts near west and south coasts, rainfalls 20-35 mm.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy (W 25-40 km/hr), a few showers, more frequent in western counties, and highs about 9-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, cold with frost in many inland valley locations, cloudier towards morning in the west. Lows -3 to +4 C with the lowest readings in central counties. Light winds.

SUNDAY ... Frost slowly clearing from some inland south-central valleys, then increasing cloud, rain and strong winds possible by afternoon west, and by evening in eastern counties. Winds SSW 50-80 km/hr, possibly higher gusts in a few exposed coastal locations, rainfalls overnight into Monday morning 15-35 mm. Morning lows -2 to +4 C and highs 7-11 C late in the day. Note that in Ulster winds may start out SE 20-40 km/hr before a warm front passes mid-day.

MONDAY ... Following rain overnight, continued rather windy with showers, lows 4-7 C and highs 9-11 C, winds veering more to SW and falling off to a more moderate 35-55 km/hr. Further rainfalls about 10 mm.

TUESDAY ... Breezy to windy with showers or periods of rain, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C, southerly winds 40-70 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and showery for several more days with highs 8-10 C and winds sometimes reaching 50-80 km/hr ... for most, there will probably be daily intervals with stronger winds as troughs continue to form in the larger complex of low pressure. One of these intervals could turn out to be windy enough for a second alert, most likely around Wednesday. There may be a trend towards cooler and more "easterly" type weather late in the month and this may become almost wintry although would say at present to expect temperatures around 5-7 C with sharp frosts on clear nights and the risk of a bit of sleet mixing in with any rain (towards end of month into early December).


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Breezy, mild, rain to showers. Highs near 12 C south, 9 C Scotland and northern England.

TONIGHT ... Clearing, some frost developing, lows -2 to +4 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud late in the day, followed by rain and strong winds in north, central (breezy with showers in south) ... highs 8-10 C. Strongest winds by Sunday night about 70-100 km/hr in western Scotland.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and breezy with showers most of the week, strongest winds likely for Scotland, northwest England, north Wales around Monday early miorning and again around Tuesday night, Thursday night. Highs remaining close to 10 C and largely frost-free nights.


Forecasts for North America

Western regions turning cloudy with showers or sleet, mixing with snow over higher inland mountains. Milder into the snow-covered prairies and northern plains, some melting of snow and highs 3-7 C. Dry and mild further south, highs 15-18 C trending to 25 C in Arizona. Dry and cool in eastern states and Great Lakes, Quebec, highs below normal at about 3-7 C on average. Cloudy with rain or drizzle at times in a northerly flow across far eastern Canada.

My local weather on Friday was overcast and mild with highs near 10 C. Light rain has been falling this evening.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.


Sunday, 18 November, 2012

ALERTS continued for black ice and slippery roads in some central counties to about 0930h, drive with extreme caution until this condition lifts, and then for possible strong winds and locally heavy rainfalls from mid-day to late overnight into Monday, S to SW winds 50-80 km/hr and possibly higher gusts near west and south coasts, rainfalls 20-35 mm.

ADVANCE ALERT for possible very strong S-SW winds on Tuesday (and/or Wednesday) -- models are having trouble resolving the details but we are seeing increasing signs of a period of gale to storm force winds 80-120 km/hr and potential for local gusts to 150 km/hr, developing rapidly from the southwest on Tuesday ... these might bring damaging potential, stay tuned for updates.


Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Frost slowly clearing from some inland south-central valleys, then increasing cloud (watch for solar halo to develop), rain and strong winds possible by afternoon west, and by evening in eastern counties. Winds SSW 50-80 km/hr, possibly higher gusts in a few exposed coastal locations, rainfalls overnight into Monday morning 15-35 mm. Morning lows -2 to +4 C and highs 7-11 C late in the day. Note that in Ulster winds may start out SE 20-40 km/hr before a warm front passes mid-day, temperatures 4-7 C until evening there.

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing, heavy at times, in blustery south to southwest winds 50-80 km/hr. Isolated gusts to 100 km/hr possible. Rainfalls by morning about 20-30 mm. Some local ponding of water on roadways, potential for mudslides in southwest near hills. Temperatures may rise to about 14-15 C in parts of the south overnight as tropical air reaches Ireland briefly, so instead of lows overnight, we will have Monday's highs in some cases, as temperatures generally soar to about 12 C.

MONDAY ... Continued rather windy with rain east tapering to showers, and highs 9-12 C after perhaps higher readings during the night, winds veering more to SW with sunny intervals developing across the west, then winds diminishing to a more moderate 35-55 km/hr. Further rainfalls about 10 mm.

MONDAY NIGHT ... Showers at times, lows 5-8 C, winds SSW 20-40 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Breezy to windy with showers or periods of rain (10-15 mm possibly heavier in west) with some hail and thunder, and highs near 11 C, southerly winds 40-70 km/hr may rise to gale or storm force, with potential to reach 80-120 km/hr (higher gusts in exposed coastal locations) and some damage as a result ... situation is "fluid" as weather models have an unusually low confidence read on the situation at this short time range ... some indications that the strongest winds could be delayed to Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, but more likely will arrive as early as Tuesday mid-day. Updates will be provided regularly after new guidance issued.

WEDNESDAY ... Strong winds either diminishing or moving through north then subsiding, in general a showery and continued rather mild day with lows about 5 C and highs about 10 C, a further 5-10 mm rain.

OUTLOOK ... Showery and blustery for most of the week then a trend to colder weather seems likely, details have been changing but as models are currently not that reliable even for 3-4 days, I would go to the default of my own research which has been suggesting near normal temperatures in early December. Just a brief comment, on the longer-range, still holding to the idea of variable conditions in December, mild at times in January and colder late January into February. That is considerably different from some outlooks we have been hearing recently (not to say they are wrong, but here's a different theory of how the winter will go). There could be some severe wintry weather as suggested but I feel most of it will come later in the season.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Sunny intervals, frost slowly dissipating, some black ice in central Wales to Midlands, south central ... Increasing cloud late in the day, followed by rain and strong winds in north, central (breezy with showers in south) ... highs 8-10 C. Strongest winds by Sunday night about 70-100 km/hr in western Scotland.

TONIGHT and MONDAY ... Windy and mild, periods of rain, highs near 12 C could develop late overnight or during the morning. Rainfalls 20-40 mm heavier in Wales, Scotland.

TUESDAY ... Possible strong winds (80-120 km/hr) for Scotland and northwest England, breezy further south. Showers including some hail and thunder. Highs 8-11 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and breezy with showers most of the week, another period of strong winds likely for Scotland, northwest England, north Wales around Thursday. Highs remaining close to 10 C and largely frost-free nights.


Forecasts for North America

In contrast, the weather is generally quiet and dry in much of North America, thanks to a sprawling high over eastern Canada and New England. Some rain extends inland from the Gulf stream into the Carolinas, otherwise, very little precip other than a cold front in B.C. and Washington state bringing 10-20 mm rainfalls (mild enough to reach almost to summit levels). Mild chinook conditions will be removing more snow from the prairies but that process will hold temperatures down to about 5-8 C there. It's quite mild to warm across parts of the south and southwest, and continuing chilly closer to the high in the northeast states, although not "cold" by mid-November standards in the daytime, highs 8-10 C and some sunshine. My local weather on Saturday has been overcast and mild with intermittent light rain.

(late) Astronomy note: Mercury overtook the earth on Saturday around sunset Irish time, and at that point it was just above the Sun's north pole. This event is known as "inferior conjunction."

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday, 18 November 2012 _ 10:00 p.m.
_______________________________________________

This update is mainly to discuss Tuesday's alert status, tonight's wind and rain event seems to be playing out much as expected (a warm front has now passed Dublin and most of north Leinster, west Ulster, will soon be through Belfast; as it passes, winds pick up and veer from SE to S ... as forecast, the highest temperatures are likely to occur late tonight and into Monday morning as a warmer sector lies back to the west behind a second warm front.)

Now as for Tuesday's potential strong wind event, the models have downgraded this so far today but not to the point where we can say this event will not happen; I am waiting to see how the 00z model runs handle the situation. The resolution problem seems to be that energy for Tuesday is squeezed between tonight's storm system and a low hanging back near Greenland that will be close to Ireland by Thursday night. There may not be enough room between systems, especially if tonight's low takes its time moving past Donegal and fails to create a bit of an opening for this next batch of energy to develop anything more than a weak secondary low. That would have the effect of maintaining winds at about 40-70 km/hr later Tuesday but we could still see a last-minute upgrade on this, so stay tuned.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 19 November, 2012

The current ALERT for strong winds should expire by about 1100h and most of the rain from the system has fallen but a risk of isolated flooding and mudslides near hills will continue through the day.

ADVANCE ALERT for possible strong S-SW winds on Tuesday -- models are still having trouble resolving the details and we now expect a brief period of 50-80 km/hr S-SW winds with possible gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed parts of the northwest. Another interval of strong winds is possible on Thursday. Both of these events will be accompanied by at least 10-20 mm rainfalls.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Continued windy (SSW 50-80 km/hr) with rain now over the east tapering to showers, morning temperatures 12-14 C then levelling off 10-12 C as winds veer more to SW, with sunny intervals developing across the west, then winds diminishing to a more moderate 35-55 km/hr. Further rainfalls about 10 mm.

TONIGHT ... Mild and breezy, increasing cloud with showers at times towards morning, lows 5-8 C, winds SSW 20-40 km/hr increasing near south coast to about 40-60 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Breezy to windy with showers or periods of rain (10-15 mm possibly heavier in west) with some hail and thunder, and highs near 10-12 C, southerly winds 40-70 km/hr may rise to 60-90 km/hr in the northwest mainly (higher gusts possible in exposed coastal locations) ... strongest winds likely around 6-9 p.m. in coastal Connacht and west Ulster.

WEDNESDAY ... Strong winds diminishing by early morning, becoming SW 30-50 km/hr, showery and continued rather mild with lows 5-7 C and highs about 10 C, with a further 5-10 mm rain.

THURSDAY ... Windy (S 50-80 km/hr) and mild with rain (10-20 mm), lows about 6 C and highs about 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, showers, mild. Winds SW 30-60 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather mild and unsettled, models are backing off earlier concepts of colder weather or easterly winds, this complex sprawling low pressure may be stubborn to break down.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy and mild, periods of rain, highs near 12 C, rainfalls 20-40 mm heaviest in Wales, Scotland. Winds near west coast SSW 50-80 km/hr, about 40-70 km/hr further east. Southeast may take longer to get into mildest air and mid-day temperatures of 5-7 C likely there in drizzle and fog.

TONIGHT ... Breezy, mild, showers. Lows 5-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy mid-day with strong winds (80-120 km/hr) for Scotland and northwest England by evening, staying just breezy further south. Showers including some hail and thunder. Highs 8-11 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and breezy with showers most of the week, another period of strong winds likely for Scotland, northwest England, north Wales around Thursday. Highs remaining close to 10 C and largely frost-free nights.


Forecasts for North America

Little change in the rather quiet weather pattern, sunshine across parts of the east and central regions will feel mild around mid-day despite widespread sharp frosts overnight, but chilly east winds and rain may back into mid-Atlantic states from offshore system. A strong front is moving inland through the early morning on the west coast and will bring rain and strong winds to valleys and lower slopes, snow to peaks only and some parts of the northern prairies, sleet further south. Staying quite warm across the southwest.

My local weather on Sunday was windy and wet, not quite as stormy as in most of Ireland, but almost (20 mms rain, wind gusts to 80 km/hr and highs near 10 C). Slight clearing is expected later today once the front moves further inland.