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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)
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Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Thursday, 27 September, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Cloudy north and west, partly cloudy southeast, breezy to windy at times from the west. A dry start for most, although a few light showers in west Munster this morning, then some light rain arriving by afternoon in the north-west. Just a few sprinkles of light rain elsewhere, or dry. Highs between 12-16 C, mildest south. Winds freshening again to W 20-35 mph.
TONIGHT ... Showery rainfalls of 5-10 mms for most regions, somewhat heavier in north, breezy (WSW 20-40 mph), lows near 8 C.
FRIDAY ... Early morning showers or periods of rain, gusty southwest to west winds 25-45 mph, then variable cloud, a few more showers mainly in Connacht, and afternoon highs about 13-15 C.
SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, mild for most, cloudy with outbreaks of light rain in the north, lows near 6 C and highs 14-17 C.
SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of rain (7-15 mm), mild, southwest winds becoming blustery again later, lows near 8 C and highs about 14-16 C.
MONDAY ... Windy with showers, winds SW 30-50 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled for the first part of the week (1-5 Oct) then eventually a more settled and calm weather pattern with fog at night, hazy sunshine in the daytime. This may only last a day or two before more unsettled and rather chilly weather arrives. The details depend on whether slow-moving Nadine ever escapes from the subtropical easterly flow and finds a way through into the westerlies. Models are still having lots of trouble with Nadine.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few light showers but amounts generally 1-3 mms, highs 14-16 C.
TONIGHT ... A few showers, or periods of light rain west, lows 7-10 C.
OUTLOOK ... Windy with showers on Friday, somewhat improved on Saturday then showery and breezy Sunday-Monday, temperatures generally 15-17 C daytime and 7-10 C overnight.
Forecasts for North America
The southeast U.S. remains mostly dry and very warm although some heavy rain is drifting inland from the Gulf of Mexico in places. A front across the Ohio valley will bring some locally heavy rains to PA, OH, IN, IL and KY, but north of that a somewhat cooler high is bringing seasonable dry fall weather to the Great Lakes region. The Midwest front has no real cold push behind it and just falls apart across the central plains under a ridge of higher pressure, west of that it turns very warm and sunny with highs well into the mid-20s to near 30 C in parts of southern Canada west of Manitoba. This warm air extends to the coast (around 21 C on the coast) with a wet system coming inland across central B.C., but my local weather remains dry, in fact we have had less than 10% of normal rainfall since mid-July here and an almost totally dry September, the high on Wednesday was 21 C with hazy sunshine.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Friday, 28 September, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... This morning, a second band of showers will rapidly move across the country, heavier in the north, but this rain will only amount to about 3 to 5 mms, before partial clearing ... a few more showers are likely later on, giving a few more mms in places ... gusty southwest to west winds 25-45 mph, and afternoon highs about 13-15 C.
TONIGHT ... Showers ending, winds diminishing to west 15-30 mph, lows around 7 C.
SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, mild for most, cloudy with outbreaks of light rain in the north, and highs 14-17 C. Winds becoming SW 15-30 mph.
SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of rain (7-15 mm), mild, southwest winds becoming blustery again later, lows near 8 C and highs about 14-16 C.
MONDAY ... Windy with showers, winds SW 30-50 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled for most of next week (1-5 Oct) and rather mild most days in a southwest flow. The details continue to depend on whether slow-moving Nadine ever escapes from the subtropical easterly flow and finds a way through into the westerlies. Models are still having lots of trouble with Nadine. The GFS actually shows a fairly windy day a week from today, as a direct result of Nadine's remnant low, but other models have a slower evolution that is probably more realistic.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Windy with occasional showers, winds WSW 30-50 mph north and 20-40 mph south, highs about 15 C.
TONIGHT ... Showers ending, lows near 7 C. Winds W 20-40 mph.
SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy south, periods of rain in Scotland, showers in northern England by afternoon. Highs about 17 C south, 13-15 C north.
OUTLOOK ... Breezy with showers Sunday-Monday, temperatures generally 15-17 C daytime and 7-10 C overnight. Next week generally near normal in temperatures and showery.
Forecasts for North America
Only slight changes from yesterday, as rain continues to move gradually further east in the inland northeast, warm and humid near the Atlantic coast and through the southeast although rain moving in from the Gulf especially in east Texas and Louisiana. Highs generally close to 30 C in the warm air mass, 20-23 C in the rain then a cooler and drier air mass holds its place over the Great Lakes and St Lawrence valley, 15-18 C by day. The central and western regions are generally in a broad south to southwest flow of very warm almost summer-like weather that is now pushing well north of the Canadian border almost to the territories, while rain moves across the higher latitudes and early snows are falling in the far northwest and interior Alaska.
My local weather continues warm and dry, still waiting for the first wet day of the autumn season. An average September here has about two-thirds the rainfall you might expect (50-75 mms) but so far I don't think we have seen a measurable rainfall at my location and only 3 mms at the Vancouver airport (that shower missed here). Quite unusual and the ground continues to be baked with unwatered grass in a dormant yellow state, trees turning colour slowly despite the warmth (high of 22 C on Thursday). No doubt we will be paying for this at some point with a deluge.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Saturday, 29 September, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Partly cloudy, relatively mild, some good sunny intervals although more cloudy with outbreaks of light rain in the north, and highs 14-17 C (mildest in south). Winds becoming SW 15-30 mph.
TONIGHT ... Periods of rain developing, winds SW 20-40 mph, lows 8-10 C.
SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of rain ending (7-15 mm), mild, southwest winds becoming blustery again later, and highs about 14-16 C. A few more showers will arrive by afternoon in Connacht.
MONDAY & TUESDAY ... Windy with showers, winds SW 30-50 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C. Increasing risk of hail and thunder.
WEDNESDAY ... Windy and cold with hail or thunder in frequent showers, some brighter intervals, winds veering to WNW 20-35 mph. Lows near 6 C and highs 11-14 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled weather likely to continue but turning milder again, Nadine possibly entering the picture around the weekend of 6-7 October as the slow-moving storm finally finds a way through to the westerlies before dying out as an extratropical low. This could be part of a rather wet period.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Partly cloudy or sunny south, periods of rain by afternoon or evening in Scotland, a few isolated showers in northern England. Highs about 17 C south, 13-15 C north.
OUTLOOK ... Breezy with showers Sunday-Monday, temperatures generally 15-17 C daytime and 7-10 C overnight. Next week generally near normal in temperatures and showery.
Forecasts for North America
The warm, dry spell is being gradually eroded from the west by weak fronts and from the south by increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, but the weekend will continue quite warm and dry in much of the western-central U.S. and south central Canada. A rather weak low is bringing outbreaks of light rain to New England and eastern Great Lakes, as well as offshore then into parts of Virginia and North Carolina. Temperatures in the east have fallen back to more seasonable levels.
My local weather here on Friday was cloudy and warm (21 C) with a few outbreaks of light rain for a change, not much accumulation.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Sunday, 30 September, 2012
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Astronomy note: Full moon occurred at 0420h or as the moon was setting in Ireland.
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Windy and mild (SW 30-50 mph) in advance of a blustery line of showers now running from Ulster to west Munster, that may become thundery in Leinster mid-day, skies partially clearing after it passes although with further showers possible in Connacht especially. Rainfalls yet to come about 5-10 mms but some isolated heavier amounts around Tipp and Laois, highs about 14-16 C. Rain is likely to arrive in the Dublin region about 1100-1200h lasting about 2-3 hours. The southeast will see the latest arrival about 1400h in Wexford (of the main band, there could be lighter showers ahead of that, but a fairly dry morning in many parts of Leinster).
TONIGHT ... Breezy to windy and mild, showers mainly confined to north and west, lows about 10 C. Winds WSW 25-45 mph.
MONDAY & TUESDAY ... Windy with showers, some sunny intervals, winds SW 30-50 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C. Increasing risk of hail and thunder.
WEDNESDAY ... Windy and cold with hail or thunder in frequent showers, some brighter intervals, winds veering to WNW 20-35 mph. Lows near 6 C and highs 11-14 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The European model has a cool, dry spell building in behind the last of the mid-week troughs, and this holds back the Atlantic low that will contain remnants of Nadine until well beyond the weekend. Other models are showing a much briefer settled interval followed by this oncoming mild southwest flow and Nadine's wet remants reaching Ireland around Monday 8th.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Breezy to windy, showers developing, risk of thunder in parts of Wales and central England. Winds SW 20-40 mph increasing to 30-50 mph later, highs 16-18 C south, 14-16 C central and 12-14 C Scotland.
TONIGHT ... Frequent showers, windy, mild. Lows 9-12 C.
OUTLOOK ... Similar to the Ireland forecast as systems will be moving east rapidly therefore unsettled with near normal temperatures falling to about 12 to 14 C in the south by mid-week.
Forecasts for North America
Breezy and mild to warm across most of western Canada and adjacent northern plains, Rockies in U.S., highs into lower 20s to 27-30 C further south. Weak fronts arriving on west coast increasing cloud with some showers. Another weak front across the northern plains mostly a dry wind-shift from SSW to WNW, some showers closer to northern Ontario. The northeast U.S. is now covered by rather chilly and cloudy weather with outbreaks of light rain developing under weak centres of low pressure. This system is stronger offshore from New England with southerly winds and rain into Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Meanwhile, wet across the southeast as rain moves slowly northeast from the lower Mississippi valley. Warm and humid with thunderstorms in Florida.
It looks like a perfect weather day for the final round of the Ryder Cup near Chicago, almost calm and sunny skies, highs near 22 C. Glad to see that it will be an exciting finish after Europe clawed back a couple of points in the late afternoon.
My local weather on Saturday was cloudy but warm with some sun at times, highs around 21 C.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer published once a month, can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Monday, 1 October, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Windy with showers, also some brief sunny intervals, winds generally SW 25-45 mph with some higher gusts, highs near 15 C. There will be an interval of heavier showers and the risk of hail and thunder arriving in the west this afternoon and spreading east this evening. Rainfalls 5-15 mm with the heavier falls in the west.
TONIGHT ... Breezy with occasional showers continuing, 3-7 mm additional rain possible, lows 5-8 C.
TUESDAY ... Frequent showers, becoming heavy or torrential in places later in the day, winds SW 25-45 mph with some higher gusts by late afternoon and evening. Highs 13-16 C. Rainfalls of 10-30 mm possible.
WEDNESDAY ... Windy and rather cold with hail or thunder in frequent showers, some brighter intervals, winds SW 20-40 mph veering to WNW 20-35 mph by afternoon or evening. Lows near 6 C and highs 12-15 C. Rainfalls about 10 mm.
THURSDAY ... A few showers but gradually clearing east, in a moderate NW flow, cool. Lows 4-7 C and highs 11-14 C.
FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool. Risk of morning frosts inland, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 11-14 C.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Saturday may remain dry as most models currently have the Atlantic low containing Nadine's remnant pushing slowly northeast to arrive Sunday or Monday, so expect a warming trend in general, and becoming unsettled again by Sunday (late) into Monday.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Partly cloudy, showers and a few thunderstorms possible, with hail in some parts of north-central and southern England. Highs 14-17 C.
TONIGHT ... Frequent showers, windy, rather cold. Lows 6-9 C.
OUTLOOK ... Similar to the Ireland forecast as systems will be moving east rapidly therefore unsettled with near normal temperatures falling to about 12 to 14 C in the south by mid-week. Some parts of southern England may have heavier rainfalls on Wednesday from a wave that will largely miss Ireland earlier on its way east. The weekend could remain dry longer although
timing is in any case rather uncertain for Nadine's final stages.
Forecasts for North America
Heavy rain developing in the southeast and mid-Atlantic, Ohio valley regions, warm and humid with highs 20-23 C. Rain spreading later to the northeast states and the Great Lakes region (south/east). Remaining pleasantly warm in parts of the western Great Lakes and Midwest, and very warm further west in a south to southwest flow. Most of western Canada remains warmer than average too in a mild Pacific flow.
My local weather on Sunday was sunny and pleasantly warm at 20 C. The month ended with 5 mm of rain which is 10% of normal here. Ground remains very dry now into early October but some rain is expected here late today.0 -
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Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Tuesday, 2 October, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Frequent showers, becoming heavy or torrential in places through the morning, could become locally intense in Leinster soon ... winds SW 25-45 mph with some higher gusts by late afternoon and evening. Highs 13-16 C. Rainfalls of 10-30 mm possible. Hail and thunder quite possible as freezing levels are rather low.
TONIGHT ... Blustery with more showers, less intense but another 5-8 mm likely. Lows 5-8 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Windy and rather cold with hail or thunder in frequent showers, some brighter intervals, winds SW 20-40 mph veering to WNW 20-35 mph by afternoon or evening, and highs 12-15 C. Rainfalls about 10 mm.
THURSDAY ... A few showers from several passing troughs, each gradually clearing east, in a moderate NW flow, allowing for some sunshine between showers. Rather cool with lows 4-7 C and highs 11-14 C.
FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool. Risk of morning frosts inland, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 11-14 C. A few showers possible mainly in Connacht. Northwest breezes of 15-25 mph.
SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, cool. Frosts in some inland districts, lows -2 to +3 C, highs about 11-14 C. Winds much lighter.
SUNDAY ... Warmer, increasing cloud, probably dry for most but rain could move into western counties at times. Winds increasing again to SE 20-35 mph with lows near 3 C and highs near 16 C.
MONDAY ... Rain or showers, mild, windy. Highs near 17 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled but with a drying trend later in the week. Near normal temperatures.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Partly cloudy, showers and a few thunderstorms possible, with hail in many places by afternoon. Windy at times, SW 25-45 mph (higher gusts in exposed areas). Highs 13-16 C.
TONIGHT ... Showers, cool. Moderate westerly winds. Lows 5-8 C.
OUTLOOK ... Similar to the Ireland forecast as systems will be moving east rapidly therefore unsettled with near normal temperatures falling to about 12 to 14 C in the south by mid-week. Some parts of southern England may have heavier rainfalls on Wednesday (London by late afternoon into evening) from a wave that will largely miss Ireland earlier on its way east. The weekend could remain dry longer although timing is in any case rather uncertain for Nadine's final stages.
Forecasts for North America
The warm, dry spell that has been prolonged in the west is now centered more on the central regions as somewhat cooler air (8-12 C) moves into most of western Canada. This colder air is not pushing to the coast and it remains rather warm from Vancouver south (near 21 C). Highs near 24 C in southern Manitoba to 30 C in the plains states. Heavy rain is moving northeast across most of the eastern U.S. with high humidity and highs of about 22-25 C, some torrential downpours near the Delmarva peninsula.
My local weather on Monday was pleasant with mostly cloudy skies but some warm sunshine at times, light showers in the vicinity.0 -
ALERT issued Tuesday 2 October at 1100h IST ...
Risk of locally intense showers with some thunder and hail, and even the slight chance of waterspouts evolving into rope-tornado type (F0) that could do minor damage to property or trees in parts of Mayo, Galway, Roscommon and surrounding region after about 1300h with this activity moving east perhaps as far as Dublin and Meath before dying out due to lack of further daytime instability by 1700h. The back edge of a cloud mass visible on satellite imagery is well supported by a tight jet stream and slight troughing at upper levels. I have posted this on the Boards storm thread and asked for help in tracking by those familiar with severe storms, check over there during the event as I may be off duty depending on how this evolves. Risk is not high for significant damage, anything active might be on almost a micro-scale. Anyone wishing to chase should keep in mind the likelihood of rapid motion of cells and fast changes in structure. A low freezing level is the main element that causes me concern for severe development in this mix. The presence of cloud ahead of the most active feature could inhibit to some extent. So it is somewhat marginal but worth tracking, I believe.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Wednesday, 3 October, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Breezy to windy and rather cold with hail or thunder in frequent showers, some brighter intervals, winds SW 20-40 mph veering to WNW 20-35 mph by afternoon or evening, and highs 12-15 C. Rainfalls about 10 mm. Several waves of more active showers appear likely and in generally similar areas to yesterday, Galway around mid-day, Donegal towards late afternoon are featured on guidance maps for some possible downpours, so expect some minor flooding with water ponding on roadways.
TONIGHT ... Little change but the slow cooling trend continues and if the showers let up after midnight, a slight risk of frost enters the picture, with lows generally 3-7 C.
THURSDAY ... A few showers from several passing troughs, each gradually clearing east, in a moderate NW flow, allowing for some sunshine between showers. Showers may be heavy at times in the north. Rather cool with lows 4-7 C and highs 11-14 C.
FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool. Risk of morning frosts inland, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 11-14 C. A few showers possible mainly in Connacht. Northwest breezes of 15-25 mph.
SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, cool. Frosts in some inland districts, lows -2 to +3 C, highs about 11-14 C. Winds much lighter.
SUNDAY ... Warmer, increasing cloud, probably dry for most but rain could move into western counties at times. Winds increasing again to SE 20-35 mph with lows near 3 C and highs near 16 C.
MONDAY ... Rain or showers, mild, windy. Highs 14 to 17 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled but with a drying trend possible later in the week. Near normal temperatures. One model (GEM) features a strong wind event around the end of next week, something to keep an eye on ... this would be from energy that catches up to Nadine's remnant low but from an origin over central North America.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Cloudy with showers or periods of rain, some becoming rather heavy late in the day across the south. Highs about 14 C.
TONIGHT ... Showers, cool. Moderate westerly winds. Lows 5-8 C.
THURSDAY ... Further showers, thunder or hail, some heavy downpours possible. Highs near 14 C.
FRIDAY ... Showers or rain, clearing western regions later. Highs near 13 C.
OUTLOOK ... The weekend could turn out mostly dry with rain edging into the west on Monday then turning heavy in the south on Tuesday. Saturday will be chilly then a milder southerly flow is likely to push at least as far north as central England and Wales.
Forecasts for North America
Systems are slow moving at present but evolving, the main change is that a weak frontal zone across the northern plains states is getting stronger and developing a larger thermal contrast that could change rain to snow in some higher (western) parts of the Dakotas and more definitely over the higher terrain in Colorado and Wyoming. Montana and Alberta will be cold enough for snow also but moisture may be limited as dry air seeps into the frontal zone, and further north where it begins to clear, temperatures will recover from morning frosts to near 7 or 8 C. Meanwhile the air mass over most of the U.S. south of this developing system is very warm, with almost summer-like temperatures of 27-31 C, but the rain continues on the east coast as a fresh wave of moisture moves north along a stalled but weak frontal boundary near the I-95 corridor.
As part of the cooling trend over the inland west, a strong high has formed overhead (in southern B.C.) and we had a clear day with misty skies over the nearby mountains, somewhat cooler although the sun still feels quite warm, and a high of about 17 C. It's clear and quite chilly outside here, despite the urban heat island it is only about 5 C a quarter hour before midnight.
Astronomy preview: The waning full moon is moving towards a close encounter with Jupiter (in visual terms) that is timed for Friday evening about 10 p.m. IST ... this means you'll be seeing them quite close in the east when they rise about midnight. An occultation is visible from parts of the southern hemisphere.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Thursday, 4 October, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Showers more frequent in the north and west, becoming heavy this afternoon in Donegal and nearby parts of other counties. Rainfalls generally about 3-7 mm but could reach 10-20 mm in northwest. Rather chilly again with highs 11-14 C, moderate SW to W winds 15-30 mph.
TONIGHT ... Some clearing in north, chilly with frosts developing. A few showers possibly becoming sleety inland, and periods of light rain near the south coast where it won't be as cold. Lows generally -1 to +3 C but in the range of 4-8 C south.
FRIDAY ... Most areas partly cloudy to overcast with sun dimmed by higher cloud, some further showers or light rain near south coast at times. Chilly with highs 10-13 C.
SATURDAY ... A frosty morning for many places inland, lows about -2 to +3 C then sunny intervals, light winds, highs 10-13 C.
SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, milder, but a cold feel to the winds in exposed coastal locations (ESE 20-40 mph by late in the day near south coast). Rain may spread some distance inland from southwest coast. Highs 13-16 C.
MONDAY ... Cloudy, milder, fog or drizzle, periods of light rain. This will be the dying circulation of Nadine. Highs 15-18 C. Rainfalls from this event likely to be moderate, 10-25 mm.
TUESDAY ... Rain to showers, turning colder late in day. Highs near 15 C.
OUTLOOK ... A northerly flow seems likely to develop with some weak influence of higher pressure off to southwest, but also somewhat unsettled as weak troughs drop south. Highs generally 9-12 C.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... A dry and windy start for the east, with showers at times further west, then rain spreading across the south by late in the day or overnight. Highs near 14 C.
TONIGHT ... Rain across parts of the south, cloudy central and clear intervals further north, frost likely inland north-central England and Scotland. Lows will be -3 to +2 C north and central, 4-8 C south.
OUTLOOK ... Friday unsettled, cool, then Saturday dry and cool with some limited sunshine, Sunday cloudy and milder with rain arriving Sunday night west and Monday east. This will last a few days and peter out to showers or drizzle in a cool northerly flow mid-week.
Forecasts for North America
Rain to snow across parts of North Dakota, Manitoba spreading into Minnesota and northwest Ontario with strong northeast to north winds. The snow may be melting as it hits the ground at 2-3 C. Snow showers likely further west, clearing across northern prairie provinces, cold. Sunny and seasonable in British Columbia and parts of the northwest U.S. ... Warm weather will continue from the southern plains northeast to the Great Lakes, as rain moves off to the east. Highs around 25-30 C in many places.
My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with a high near 16 C, crisp and cold at night under strong high pressure.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Friday, 5 October, 2012
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Astronomy note: Jupiter and the waning moon (gibbous phase) rise around midnight very close together after an occultation seen from parts of the southern hemisphere earlier in the night. By the time they are visible in Ireland, Jupiter would appear to be moving away from the Moon's north pole (rising a bit ahead of the Moon) and by the time I might see it here, there would be a considerable separation already, possibly half an hour to pass the same reference point.
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Most areas partly cloudy to overcast with sun dimmed by higher cloud, some further showers or light rain near south coast at times. There will also be showers in the Donegal Bay region, perhaps locally persistent. These could become sleety on hills with soft hail falling. Chilly with highs 10-13 C and even lower daytime temperatures at times in showers north.
TONIGHT ... Sharp frost, in some cases for the first time this season, in many places inland, and even a few low-lying spots near coasts. Lowest temperatures -3 to +2 C.
SATURDAY ... A frosty morning for many places inland, then sunny intervals, light winds, highs 10-13 C.
SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, milder, but a cold feel to the winds in exposed coastal locations (ESE 20-40 mph by late in the day near south coast). Rain may spread some distance inland from southwest coast. Morning lows about 3 to 7 C but some frost in Ulster, north Leinster (lows to -1 C). Highs 13-16 C.
MONDAY ... Cloudy, milder, fog or drizzle, periods of light rain. This will be the dying circulation of Nadine. Lows 8-11 C, highs 15-18 C. Rainfalls from this event likely to be moderate, 10-25 mm.
TUESDAY ... Rain to showers, turning a bit colder late in day. Lows 8-10 C and highs near 15 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, misty, drizzle or rain, highs 11-13 C.
OUTLOOK ... A northerly flow seems likely to develop with some weak influence of higher pressure off to southwest, but also somewhat unsettled as weak troughs drop south. Highs generally 9-12 C. Some rather cold maps appear on some models but it looks like what weather folks call a "toppler" meaning the pattern quickly changes to milder zonal westerly flow.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Further rain across the south, very windy in the Channel this morning but those gales are heading for Belgium and Germany. Somewhat breezy at times in England too, but generally 20-35 mph at most. Could reach 50 mph in east Kent. Further north, more dry than showery and some sunshine through extensive higher cloud layers, chilly. Highs 8-11 C.
TONIGHT ... Frosts developing, lows -3 to +2 C rural, 3-7 C urban and south coast. Clearing except for persistent cloud in south.
OUTLOOK ... Saturday cool with intervals of sunshine, Sunday cloudy and milder with rain arriving Sunday night west and Monday east. This will last a few days and peter out to showers or drizzle in a cool northerly flow mid-week north and Thursday-Friday south.
Forecasts for North America
The mid-continent trough will deepen and pull colder air into the central plains and central Rockies, and snow will continue across northern Ontario. A sharp cold front will develop and bring periods of rain with thunder to the lower Great Lakes, but south of that, warm sunny weather and southwest breezes will feel summery with highs near 30 C. This very warm weather links up to warmth in the desert southwest as the western cold front stalls across Utah and Nevada and dissolves under a strong ridge extending east from a centre off the Pacific coast, into Washington state and southern B.C. -- this produces near normal temperatures and sunny weather for those regions.
My local weather on Thursday was sunny (again) and the ground is still baked dry here, quite unusual for early October when we can start to get daily rain in this climate. The high was about 18 C but the nights are rather chilly.0 -
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Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Saturday, 6 October, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Scattered frost and ground fog or mist in valleys dissipating, becoming mostly sunny with some weak showers possible near Donegal Bay moving slowly inland on light northwest breezes. Highs 10-13 C.
TONIGHT ... Increasing high cloud but clear intervals over Ulster, north Leinster could allow frost to form in some areas there, lows -2 to +4 C, whereas milder under cloud and a light southeast breeze in Munster, lows near the south coast about 6-8 C.
SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals morning in east and north, cloudy to start in south and west, with increasing cloud east, some parts of south turning milder, but a cold feel to the winds in exposed coastal locations (ESE 20-40 mph by late in the day near south coast). Rain may spread some distance inland from southwest coast. Highs 13-16 C in south and west, 11-13 C in north and east.
MONDAY ... Cloudy, milder, fog or drizzle, periods of light rain. This will be the dying circulation of Nadine. Lows 8-11 C, highs 15-18 C south but 12-14 C north. Rainfalls from this event likely to be moderate, 10-25 mm, and may be lighter than that range in the north.
TUESDAY ... Rain or drizzle to showers, lows 8-10 C and highs near 15 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, misty, drizzle or rain, highs 11-13 C. A slight northeast wind may develop as the oncoming low weakens and remnants of the circulation drift across the south.
THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, some patchy drizzle, cool. Highs near 12 C.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Unsettled and turning rather windy from west to northwest, rather cold, highs 9-12 C. Hail may occur in north as freezing levels will be down to about 1500m.
OUTLOOK ... Mid-month looks rather cold but vague hints of milder weather to follow as the circulation becomes unblocked and a storm track across the Atlantic to the northwest of Ireland may become established by the 20th.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Sunny intervals west, cloudy to start in southeast with last remnants of persistent rain clearing slowly away, chilly, highs 11-14 C. A few showers possible in western Scotland although generally dry, 10-12 C.
TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, chilly, mist or fog developing, some frost, lows about -2 to +4 C.
SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud for most, sunshine becoming dimmed by high cloud in northeast England and parts of Scotland. Rain in Cornwall by evening, otherwise largely dry. Highs near 13 C.
OUTLOOK ... Misty or cloudy with light rain at times, heavier in southwest England but rather drizzly elsewhere. Highs most of the week in cool 11-14 C range, not much cooler at night due to cloud.
Forecasts for North America
The warm, dry spell will continue for one more day in parts of the southeast U.S. before a front arrives tonight ... Rain with some thunder moving rapidly east across the larger cities of the northeast U.S. with falling temperatures to end the warm spell (20s to 13-16 range). Windy and cool across the Great Lakes and Midwest, highs 8-11 C with showers and some hail or thunder in lake effect. Cold and windy further west to about mid-continent, then slowly turning warmer west of about a line from central Saskatchewan to eastern Kansas. Warm and dry west.
My local weather on Friday was sunny and quite mild (warm at times) with a high of about 19 C. Clear this evening, a good view of the rising Moon with Jupiter out ahead, the position clearly different from the pictures you took in Ireland earlier (I would say about ten lunar diameters of separation).0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Sunday, 7 October, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Sunny intervals morning in east and north, cloudy to start in south and west, with increasing cloud east, some parts of south turning milder, but a cold feel to the winds in exposed coastal locations (ESE 20-40 mph by late in the day near south coast). Rain may spread some distance inland from southwest coast, 5-10 mm in west Munster. Highs 13-16 C in south and west, 11-13 C in north and east.
TONIGHT ... Cloudy except for some clear intervals in Ulster, rain confined to Munster and south Leinster, a further 3-5 mm in places, moderate southeast winds ... lows 2-5 C north, to 7-10 C south.
MONDAY ... Cloudy, milder, fog or drizzle, periods of light rain. This will be the dying circulation of Nadine approaching. Rain rather light with a few heavier bursts near the south coast, generally 5-15 mm and it may remain dry in the north. Highs 15-18 C south but 12-14 C north. As the circulation weakens, winds from SE will remain moderate and could decrease at times to light.
TUESDAY ... Rain or drizzle to showers, rather small amounts and largely confined to south, in fact there could be a bit of watery sunshine through higher cloud in the north, lows 8-10 C and highs near 15 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, misty, drizzle or rain, highs 11-13 C. A slight northeast wind may develop as the oncoming low weakens and remnants of the circulation drift across the south. Rainfall amounts only 2-5 mm.
THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, some patchy drizzle or showers, winds becoming stronger in western districts from southwest at 20-40 mph. Lows generally 4-7 C and highs near 12 C.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Unsettled and turning rather windy from west to northwest, rather cold, highs 9-12 C. Hail may occur in north as freezing levels will be down to about 1500m.
OUTLOOK ... The unsettled period may just gradually trend to light rain or drizzle in a cold northeast to easterly breeze, with a dry and cool interval followed by milder weather in a southwest flow. The month as a whole looks a bit colder than average but could end with much milder weather.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Increasing cloud for most, sunshine becoming dimmed by high cloud in northeast England and parts of Scotland. Rain in Cornwall by evening, otherwise largely dry. Highs near 13 C.
TONIGHT ... Rain in parts of the southwest, cloudy south-central including most of Wales, lows 5-8 C. Clear intervals further north, patchy frost, lows about -2 to +4 C.
MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Rain or drizzle confined mainly to south, including parts of south Wales, north remaining largely dry under higher pressure, nights bringing some fog or frost. Highs 11-13 C and lows 6-8 C south trending down to about -2 C in parts of north.
OUTLOOK ... Similar trend to Ireland with increasing winds for the north through mid-week and some cold, almost wintry showers for Scotland at times, these spreading further south by Friday and the weekend, snow on hills possibly (above 800 m).
Forecasts for North America
A simple and rather common autumn pattern, mild and dry in the west and chilly most other regions in a broad northwest flow that ends with showers or periods of rain near the east coast. A reinforcing wave of showers is developing over the Midwest and moving towards the northeast U.S. and lower Great Lakes. Highs generally 10-13 C east, 15-18 C southeast, trending to 20s in the south central and western regions, locally near 30 C in some valleys of the far west.
My local weather on Saturday was once again sunny and rather warm with a high of about 22 C, shirt-sleeves weather by day, chilly at night.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Monday, 8 October, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Cloudy, somewhat milder in the south, with the drizzle or periods of light rain gradually pushing back south after beginning to fragment over central counties this morning. Further rain rather light with a few heavier bursts near the south coast, generally 5-15 mm and it may remain dry in the north, and become dry in some central counties. Highs 13-16 C south but 12-14 C north. Winds from SE will remain moderate in the south, and may back to the northeast across northern districts; later on, winds could decrease at times to light northerly.
TONIGHT ... Cloud and occasional light rain in the far south but variable cloud central and clear intervals north, so that coldest overnight lows of -1 to +4 can be expected inland north, about 3-5 C south central and 7 C south coast.
TUESDAY ... Rain or drizzle to showers, rather small amounts and largely confined to south, while there will likely be some weak sunshine through higher cloud in the north, with highs near 13 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, misty, drizzle or rain, highs 11-13 C. A slight northeast wind may develop as the oncoming low weakens and begins to interact with the trough further north. Rainfall amounts only 2-5 mm, except for some heavier amounts in west Munster.
THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, some patchy drizzle or showers, winds becoming stronger in western districts from southwest at 20-40 mph. Lows generally 4-7 C and highs near 12 C. Rainfalls about 5-10 mm.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Unsettled and turning rather windy from west to northwest, rather cold, highs 9-12 C. Hail may occur in north as freezing levels will be down to about 1500m.
SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Periods of rain or showers and chilly, slight northeast circulation developing, highs 9-12 C.
OUTLOOK ... The unsettled period may just gradually trend to light rain or drizzle in a cold northeast to easterly breeze, with a dry and cool interval followed by milder weather in a southwest flow. The month as a whole looks a bit colder than average but could end with much milder weather.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY, TONIGHT and TUESDAY ... Rain or drizzle confined mainly to south, including parts of south Wales, north remaining largely dry under higher pressure, nights bringing some fog or frost. Highs 11-13 C and lows 6-8 C south trending down to about -2 C in parts of north. As the system is dying out, rain is likely to be heavier at times today than tomorrow and could become drizzly by tonight and tomorrow, amounts generally less than 10 mm in the southwest and staying largely dry further north.
OUTLOOK ... Similar trend to Ireland with increasing winds for the north through mid-week and some cold, almost wintry showers for Scotland at times, these spreading further south by Friday and the weekend, snow on hills possibly (above 800 m).
Forecasts for North America
Sunny and warm in western regions, with a slightly colder air mass from the northwest pushing this warmth back towards the coast in the Rockies and western prairies, northern plains states. Some mixed showers developing in this northwest flow over the central prairies. Another weak system will develop in the Midwest bringing cloud and some light rain at times to the lower Great Lakes, variable cloud and seasonable temperatures elsewhere in the eastern U.S.
My local weather has become even warmer over the weekend (today is a holiday here, Canadian Thanksgiving Day) ... on Sunday we enjoyed a sunny day with 24 C, almost hot in the sun ... I posted a picture showing how dry the ground is around here in the weather obs thread ... and this is likely to continue several more days as the upper ridge is just drifting back to the west slightly.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Tuesday, 9 October, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Rain or drizzle ending for a while, or confined to outer south coast as drizzle, while there will likely be some weak sunshine through variable amounts of mostly higher cloud in the north and central counties, with highs near 13 C. Light east winds.
TONIGHT ... Cloudy across the south, rain resuming near south coast, partly cloudy further north, lows will range from about 2-4 C north to 7-10 C south and there could be patchy ground frost well inland north.
WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, misty, drizzle or rain, highs 11-13 C. A slight northeast wind may develop as the oncoming low weakens and begins to interact with the trough further north. Rainfall amounts only 2-5 mm, except for some heavier amounts in west Munster. Heavier rainfalls seem likely on Wednesday night with 5-15 mm as a wave forms over Ireland heading east.
THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, some patchy drizzle or showers, winds becoming stronger in western districts from west veering northwest at 20-40 mph. Lows generally 4-7 C and highs near 12 C. Further rainfalls about 5-10 mm.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Unsettled and turning rather windy from west to northwest, rather cold, highs 9-12 C. Hail may occur in north as freezing levels will be down to about 1500m.
SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Periods of rain or showers and chilly, slight northeast circulation developing, highs 9-12 C.
OUTLOOK ... The unsettled period may just gradually trend to light rain or drizzle in a cold northeast to easterly breeze, with a dry and cool interval followed by milder weather in a southwest flow. The month as a whole looks a bit colder than average but could end with much milder weather.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY, TONIGHT ... Rain or drizzle confined mainly to south, including parts of south Wales, north remaining largely dry under higher pressure, nights bringing some fog or frost. Highs 11-13 C and lows 6-8 C south trending down to about -2 C in parts of north. As the system is dying out, rain is likely to be drizzly for most today and tonight, further amounts generally less than 5 mm in the southwest and staying largely dry further north.
OUTLOOK ... Similar trend to Ireland with increasing winds for the north through mid-week and some cold, almost wintry showers for Scotland at times, these spreading further south by Friday and the weekend, snow on hills possibly (above 800 m).
Forecasts for North America
Little change in general as warm, dry weather holds on in the far west and the south-central U.S., with colder than average conditions over much of the central and eastern regions, with outbreaks of light rain or even mixed precip over higher ground and further north.
My local weather on a holiday Monday here was once again sunny and quite warm with a high of 21 C.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Wednesday, 10 October, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Cloudy south, partly cloudy north to start, any sunshine gradually fading behind increasing cloud with rain following from the southwest and west mid-day and afternoon ... highs 13-16 C ... winds increasing gradually to reach SE 15-30 mph. Rainfalls of about 5-10 mm by evening in west but dry until then east.
TONIGHT ... Rain spreading across the country and becoming heavy at times, 10-20 mm amounts likely, lows around 6-8 C.
THURSDAY ... Morning showers clearing east, variable cloud further west with isolated showers to follow, winds moderate west to northwest by afternoon, 20-40 mph ... highs 12-14 C.
FRIDAY ... Rather chilly to start, lows 2-5 C, isolated frost inland, then increasing cloud, showers, moderate SW to W winds, highs 9-13 C.
SATURDAY ... Cloudy, showers or periods of rain, 3-7 mm on average, lows about 5 C and highs about 12 C. Winds W veering to NW 20-30 mph.
SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers or longer periods of light rain, chilly with north to northeast winds, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C north, 11 C south.
MONDAY ... Windy and milder with frequent showers, highs near 14 C.
OUTLOOK ... Unsettled most of next week, possible strong winds at times.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Cloudy south, drizzle near south coast, variable cloud central and sunny intervals north. Highs 11-14 C.
TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, frosts in northeast, lows -2 to +4 C but as mild as 10 C south.
OUTLOOK ... Frequent showers, periods of rain, highs around 12-14 C, rather chilly for early October.
Forecasts for North America
The warm spell continues in the far west for 2-3 more days although showers are creeping into Arizona from northwest Mexico, and cloud is spreading north from this weak disturbance. Also, coastal regions are seeing fog encroaching inland with somewhat cooler temperatures. Meanwhile, the eastern cool spell is moderating slowly and a weak frontal system moving through the Great Lakes will bring showers and highs near 12 C while further south, temperatures are returning to near normal values of 18-22 C.
My local weather on Tuesday was foggy to start, bright sunshine by afternoon, but the fog left a chill and it only warmed to about 17 C in contrast with the warm 20s in recent days. Fog is now gradually redeveloping.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Thursday, 11 October, 2012
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ALERT for locally heavy rainfalls in central counties this morning, spreading northeast towards east Ulster and north Leinster later this morning through mid-day. Dublin may be included but the main thrust of the heavier rainfall appears to be directed towards Meath, Westmeath, Louth, Cavan and Monaghan, then into east Ulster. Amounts of 20-30 mm are likely and some flooding mainly on roads with poor drainage (leaves may block drains) and smaller streams.
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Rain continues to spread east and northeast, clearing should begin soon near the west coast and this will slowly spread further east with some sunny intervals in variable cloud amounts, so a much better day for the west than other regions ... heavy rain will slowly push away from west-central counties into east Ulster and north Leinster, with the heaviest falls near 30 mm likely to run from Offaly towards Meath and Louth into east Ulster. Dublin and region will also see moderate to heavy rainfalls of 15-25 mm, but further south amounts will be more variable in a showery regime. Highs near 14 C, winds generally light with the rainfall then picking up to moderate W to NW at about 20-35 mph by afternoon (west) and evening (east). Rain may produce some local flooding on roads in the areas mentioned as recently fallen leaves block some drains. Rain likely to persist much of the day near east coast as the system slows down over the Irish Sea. This may lead to a secondary period of moderate rain moving up the coast from Wicklow to coastal Dublin by later afternoon. Rain may slowly become accompanied by dense fog as temperatures fall to the saturation point.
TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy with some clear intervals, isolated showers, lows near 5 C on average, any spots that clear could drop to about 2-3 C and then see the development of fog. Watch out if driving late tonight for patchy dense fog with near-zero visibility in places where heavy rain has fallen.
FRIDAY ... Rather chilly to start, some dense fog and isolated frost inland slowly clearing away, sunny intervals then increasing cloud, showers, moderate SW to W winds, highs 9-13 C.
SATURDAY ... Cloudy, showers or periods of rain, 3-7 mm on average, lows about 5 C and highs about 12 C. Winds W veering to NW 20-30 mph.
SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers or longer periods of light rain, chilly with north to northeast winds, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C north, 11 C south.
MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, becoming windy and milder with frequent showers to periods of rain by evening, highs near 14 C.
OUTLOOK ... Unsettled most of next week, possible strong winds at times.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Cloudy with showers developing, mostly over western parts, heavy at times by afternoon in southwest Scotland and north, west Wales. Highs 12-16 C, warmest in south central inland. Moderate southerly winds developing, some stronger gusts by late afternoon near southwest coasts.
TONIGHT ... Periods of rain with risk of thunder, some local flooding in Wales and northwest England, spreading to northeast England later in the night, amounts 20-40 mm there, 10-20 mm southern England and east Midlands. Lows generally mild around 9-12 C.
FRIDAY ... Rain to showers, then gradual clearing more effective in west, highs 13-15 C, moderate westerly winds with some gusty periods in the north.
OUTLOOK ... Frequent showers, periods of rain, highs around 12-14 C, rather chilly for early October. Turning even a bit colder on Sunday especially in northern and inland central regions, daytime temperatures could be quite low around 7-9 C. Frosts may follow in a few places but it will remain mostly cloudy and frequent showers (sleety on hills) likely.
Forecasts for North America
The main theme continues to be slow replacement of the anomalous warmth in west and cold in east with a more bland "zonal" pattern with near normal temperatures becoming more dominant. The warm spell has now broken down into a few remnant patches well inland over the Rockies as Pacific moisture spreads inland and subtropical cloud and showers spread north across the inland southwest. Over the eastern regions, some rain at times in the Great Lakes and inland northeast, continuing partly cloudy and near average in temperature in other parts of the eastern and central U.S.
My local weather on Wednesday was foggy to start, rather cold as the fog formed late in the otherwise clear night, then the fog lingered most of the day becoming a low overcast with drizzle and highs near 13 C.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Friday, 12 October, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Any fog and isolated frost gradually clearing away, sunny intervals east but increasing cloud there, as showers already starting in the west arrive mid-day, moderate SW to W winds 15-30 mph, rainfalls 3-7 mm on average, slight risk of hail or thunder ... highs 10-14 C.
TONIGHT ... Variable cloud with a few clear intervals, rather chilly with lows in the range 2-5 C for most, 7 C outer coasts. A few isolated showers likely but becoming a steady light rain later in the west.
SATURDAY ... Cloudy, showers or periods of rain, 3-7 mm on average, lows about 5 C and highs about 12 C. Winds W veering to NW 20-30 mph by evening or overnight.
SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers or longer periods of light rain, chilly with north to northeast winds, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C north, 11 C south. There could be some longer dry spells in parts of Connacht.
MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, becoming windy and milder with frequent showers to periods of rain by evening, highs near 14 C.
OUTLOOK ... Unsettled most of next week, possible strong winds at times, although the current model consensus is more wet than windy .... a storm may develop off to the south but then weaken as it slowly approaches the south coast, but this might be quite a wet period for Munster.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Rain now confined mostly to Scotland and Tyneside tapering to showers, rather slow to clear there, but becoming variable in central and southern England, Wales with more isolated showers, highs 13-15 C, and moderate westerly winds 20-40 mph with some gusty periods in the north.
TONIGHT ... Frequent showers, chilly, lows 4-7 C.
WEEKEND ... Unsettled with a trend to heavier showers or periods of rain by Sunday, heavier in southern England as low pressure develops near the Channel or in northern France. Highs only 8-11 C, quite chilly especially in moderate northeast winds that may develop.
OUTLOOK ... Most of the week will remain unsettled and there could be an interval of heavy rainfall mid-week, cool in general (10-13 C) and windy at times in the southwest and also western Scotland, although not so much elsewhere.
Forecasts for North America
Rain is finally moving into parts of the west breaking a long dry spell or drought during the afternoon and evening hours. Somewhat milder in western Canada as fronts push back to the northeast. A few areas of warm, dry weather remain in places like Montana and Colorado, but showers are quite widespread in the far western states now. Eastern states continue to enjoy crisp autumn weather with highs 15-18 C and rural frosts at night, trending to unsettled in the Great Lakes and northern New England. Weak Tropical Storm Patty is bringing rain to the Bahamas but most of Florida is dry except for parts of the southeast.
My local weather on Thursday was foggy to start, cloudy all day with highs of about 14 C. Although it felt damp, we have yet to see any measurable precipitation and the ground remains dry (for now, rain moving in later).0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Saturday, 13 October, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers or periods of rain, 3-7 mm on average, rain mostly in south at first, then a second wave will develop further north, this slowly moving southeast. Highs 10 to 13 C. Winds W veering to NW 20-30 mph by evening or overnight.
TONIGHT ... Partly to mostly cloudy, cold, with a few more showers or intervals of light rain, becoming more confined to southeast as a weak push of somewhat drier air develops across Ulster. Lows 2-5 C with slight risk of frost in north inland.
SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers or longer periods of light rain, chilly with north to northeast winds, and highs near 9 C north, 11 C south. There could be some longer dry spells in parts of Connacht although limited sunshine as the moisture departs towards southern England and northern France.
MONDAY ... Morning frosts under partly cloudy to clear skies, lows -2 to +3 C then increasing cloud, becoming breezy (SW 20-35 mph) to windy and milder with frequent showers to periods of rain by evening, highs 12 to 14 C.
TUESDAY and rest of week ... Periods of rain, foggy at times, increasing southeast winds across Munster (into the 30-50 mph range), and highs near 13 C. Potential for 10-30 mm rainfalls with similar amounts on Wednesday as this disturbance may be a slow moving and meandering system, continuing unsettled Thursday-Friday with showers or further rain. Temperatures in a narrow range mostly either side of 10 C. Some models are showing stronger winds mid-week (45-65 mph seems to be the upper limit so far) but this aspect is not quite settled and the storm may produce these winds mostly offshore before arriving in a somewhat weaker condition, but the significant rainfall is probably inevitable from the range of outcomes.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Variable cloud with showers, becoming a steady rain in western districts by this evening. Highs about 10-13 C.
TONIGHT and SUNDAY ... Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times in the south with 30 mm potential, lows near 6 C and highs 9-11 C, more showery further north and slight clearing trend for Scotland in a moderate northeast flow.
OUTLOOK ... Further rain at times in south then spreading back north during the first half of the week, heavy rain at times mid-week, cool with highs only 9-12 C for most, 14 C southeast England where strong winds may develop around Thursday.
Forecasts for North America
Rain is now spreading inland on the west coast and a new disturbance is spreading heavy rain into the Midwest from the central plains states. The trend is now towards warmer weather in the eastern U.S. and most of this rain is heading for Ontario and border regions of the inland northeast, while the coastal cities remain partly cloudy warming up to around 21 C. Tropical storm Rafael has formed southeast of Puerto Rico and threatens to spread heavy rain across that island tonight and Sunday.
My local weather on Friday was foggy with low cloud and drizzle turning to a steady rain, breaking a long drought here. About 15 mm has now fallen and about the same amount is likely overnight.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Sunday, 14 October, 2012
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ADVANCE ALERT for heavy rainfalls in many parts of the country this week, heaviest around mid-week but the main aspect of concern is probably the cumulative amounts by end of the week as systems will tend to be slow-moving and more or less continual in building up rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm during the period.
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with some brighter intervals developing from Connacht south by mid-day, showers or longer periods of light rain, likely heavier in eastern counties and outbreaks moving south on north to northeast winds of 15-25 mph, with highs near 10 C north, 12 C south. Rainfalls of 3-7 mm on average in east, trace to 2 mm west.
TONIGHT ... Clear intervals and frosty with ground fog or mist forming in valleys, lows -2 to +3 C except a bit higher near south coast.
MONDAY ... Morning frosts and locally dense fog patches under partly cloudy to clear skies, then increasing cloud, becoming breezy (SW 20-35 mph) to windy and milder with frequent showers to periods of rain by evening, highs 12 to 14 C. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm likely across the west, but this won't reach eastern counties until overnight.
TUESDAY ... Morning showers moving away from eastern counties, brief clearing but more showers or periods of rain moving in during the afternoon and evening, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Further rainfalls 10-20 mm.
WEDNESDAY ... Rain, heavy at times, with embedded thunder. South coast and possibly east coast rather windy (SE to SW 30-50 mph), not as windy further north, rainfalls heaviest from west Munster northeast towards midlands and Ulster (potential for 30 mm). Temperatures steady 10-12 C, possibly 14-16 C briefly in south. Flooding may develop in parts of inland south to midlands.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Further showers or periods of rain, temperatures steady around 11 C and rainfalls of 10-20 mm per day on average, some heavier amounts possible, flooding may become more widespread.
OUTLOOK ... Unsettled through the weekend although with a slight improving trend, some chance of a more settled week to follow as a milder south to southwest flow develops. Since normal values are falling steadily, this milder trend may not push temperatures much higher than 13-14 C.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times in the south and East Anglia where rain will back in from the North Sea later, 20-30 mm potential, lows near 6 C and highs 9-11 C, more showery further north and slight clearing trend for Scotland in a moderate northeast flow that may include strong gusts near the east coast (40-50 mph) but otherwise generally 15 to 30 mph.
TONIGHT ... Further rain or showers, lows 6-8 C south and 2-4 C north. Sleet or snow possible on higher summits in Wales and northern England, Scotland.
OUTLOOK ... Further rain at times in south then spreading back north during the first half of the week, heavy rain at times mid-week, cool with highs only 9-12 C for most, 14 C southeast England where strong winds may develop around Thursday. Rainfall may become excessive and lead to flooding in parts of north-central England and possibly west of London.
Forecasts for North America
Heavy rainfalls are moving ashore on the west coast putting a complete end to the long drought here, but inland it remains rather dry especially south of the border around Idaho and Utah. Another heavy rainfall event is moving through the Great Lakes region with a warm south to southwest flow reaching the larger cities of the east coast, highs there will be into the low to mid 20s, but 13-15 C in the rain further north (similar to the rain area on the west coast).
My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with periods of rain, a dry afternoon between two batches of about 20 mm rainfall. Because of the previous dry spell, leaves are coming down in the rain despite not having turned as much as usual (around here that is mainly yellow coloration with some orange and red, but we're seeing a lot of lime-green leaves coming down in the rain, the leaves must have been weakened by the long dry spell -- some drains are blocked so there's a bit of standing water although not too bad by local standards).0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Monday, 15 October, 2012
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Astronomy note: New moon occurs later today at 1:04 p.m. IST.
ALERT for locally heavy rainfalls tonight of 15-25 mm across central and some northern counties. ADVANCE ALERT continued for heavy rainfalls in many parts of the country this week, heaviest around mid-week but the main aspect of concern is probably the cumulative amounts by end of the week as systems will tend to be slow-moving and more or less continual in building up rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm during the period.
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Frost and locally dense fog patches under partly cloudy to clear skies should clear gradually, sunny intervals then increasing cloud, becoming breezy (SW 20-35 mph) to windy and milder with frequent showers to periods of rain by evening, highs 12 to 14 C. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm likely across the west, but this won't reach eastern counties until overnight.
TONIGHT ... Heavy showers or periods of rain, a further 10-20 mm spreading rapidly to the northeast, followed by some clearing in the south but continued residual showers further north, winds increasing to SW 25-45 mph, slight risk of local wind damage in southeast. Lows 5-8 C.
TUESDAY ... Morning showers moving away from eastern counties although possibly no breaks in overcast in north, brief clearing more effective in south, but more showers or periods of rain moving in during the afternoon and evening, and highs near 13 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Rain, heavy at times, with embedded thunder. South coast and possibly east coast rather windy (SE to SW 35-55 mph), not as windy further north, rainfalls heaviest from west Munster northeast towards midlands and Ulster (potential for 30 mm). Temperatures steady 10-12 C, possibly 14-16 C briefly in south. Flooding may develop in parts of inland south to midlands by evening. A few locations on south coast could have wind gusts to 65 mph late afternoon.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Further showers or periods of rain, temperatures steady around 10 C by day and falling a bit where skies clear briefly overnight although otherwise lows will be 5-7 C, rainfalls of 10-20 mm per day on average, some heavier amounts possible, so that flooding may become more widespread. The range of outcomes on the models includes different wind directions for Ireland and if the bulk of low pressure remains south of Munster then the north may not be as wet as the likely ECM outcome which includes low pressure continuing to drift northeast. On probability, the south central regions could see the greatest risk of flooding but this may change closer to the event.
OUTLOOK ... Unsettled through the first half of the weekend although with a slight improving trend as long as low pressure remains well off to the southwest as now generally shown on models, some chance of a more settled week to follow as a milder south to southeast flow develops. Since normal values are falling steadily, this milder trend may not push temperatures much higher than 13-14 C and it may be quite a gradual increase that includes some rather chilly nights.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers mainly in central regions, cool with highs near 9 or 10 C.
TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud followed by rain and strong SW winds across the south, moderate SE winds in northern England and Scotland. Rainfalls of about 20 mm with lows 6-9 C.
TUESDAY ... Rain to showers, windy. Some clearing later in southwest but otherwise rather unsettled with highs 10-12 C.
OUTLOOK ... Further heavy rain at times mid-week, cool with highs only 9-12 C for most, 14 C southeast England where strong winds may develop around Thursday. Rainfall may become excessive and lead to flooding in parts of north-central England and possibly west of London. Potential for rainfall totals in some parts of 75-125 mm.
Forecasts for North America
Rain to showers over the west coast with some clearing later, rain changing to snow over parts of inland B.C. and north-central Alberta. Showers and risk of a thunderstorm from northeast U.S. across Ohio valley into south central states. Some areas warm and dry in southeast. Also warm and dry over parts of the Rockies and southwest states. Rafael may become a minimal hurricane as it moves rapidly north towards Bermuda (which it will pass tomorrow).0 -
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Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Tuesday, 16 October, 2012
ALERT for heavy rainfalls and strong winds on Wednesday, with the rainfalls persisting several more days ... the strong winds should be largely confined to Munster late Wednesday.
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Morning showers becoming confined to north, partial clearance across the south but remaining cloudy in north ... further rainfalls only 2-4 mm until this evening ... strong westerly winds should subside gradually this morning, backing to southerly 10-20 mph ... highs 10-14 C.
TONIGHT ... Rain becoming heavy in southwest, gradually spreading north and east. Amounts 10-25 mm southwest, 5-10 mm central and dry to almost sunrise in north and east. Lows 4-7 C, temperatures rising after midnight in southwest to about 11 C. Winds increasing in Kerry to SE 25-45 mph.
WEDNESDAY ... Periods of rain becoming heavy at times, strong SE winds developing in Munster, 35-55 mph, but more moderate E winds 20-35 mph elsewhere. Rainfalls 20-40 mm during the day in Munster, 15-30 mm in Connacht and south Leinster, 10-20 mm in Ulster and north Leinster. Steady rain likely to be replaced by squally showers including some thunder and hail as winds veer more to southerly. Highs will reach 12 C for most, 14-16 C in south coast districts. Risk of local flooding especially south central, midlands, towards end of the day.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ... Further showers or periods of rain, 5-15 mm amounts, winds peaking at around 40-65 mph (SSE) early evening south coast then diminishing through the night, other regions will see moderate southerly breezes and lows of about 7 C. Localized flooding could continue.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Unsettled with further showers or periods of rain, some thundery showers embedded, lows 3-6 C and highs 9-12 C (possibly a bit milder especially at night in southeast). Rainfalls about 10-20 mm each day, continued risk of flooding but in general a rather soggy picture although the long duration of these rainfalls should allow most drainage to cope more or less with the runoff.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Seems likely to remain unsettled, the main question being whether remnants of now-hurricane Rafael push close enough to Ireland to bring organized bands of heavier rain, or as models are generally suggesting, the trough stalls around 20-25 W and a mild but drizzly south to southwest flow persists. The outcome could be something of a blend with some intervals of heavier showers. Highs will probably be around 13 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... More settled and reasonably mild for late October as the flow will likely back to southeast, however, models are not showing any large-scale warming trend, just the source of the air mass should keep temperatures a bit milder in the 12-14 C range by day, chilly nights.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Windy with showers, rain moving north in central Scotland then weakening to showers later. Winds slowly diminishing by afternoon but gusting this morning to 70 mph in exposed parts of Wales and central England, 50 mph in southern England (from W). Highs 12-15 C.
TONIGHT ... Showers ending, some clearing, lows 3-6 C.
OUTLOOK ... Rain spreading across most regions but heavier in Wales, southwest England on Wednesday, breaking up to showers for rest of the week, some locally heavy amounts in total. Highs 12-14 C.
Forecasts for North America
Heavy showers now moving into eastern Canada as a large high develops over the eastern U.S., dry and seasonable autumn weather for most, trending to warm and dry in the western states, showery near the Pacific coast and across parts of western Canada, snow at higher elevations of northern B.C. and Alberta.
My local weather on Monday was cloudy, dry for most of the day, periods of rain by late afternoon, highs near 15 C.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Wednesday, 17 October, 2012
ALERT for further heavy rainfalls (20-40 mm) and strong winds today, extending to all parts of the country this morning and involving two or three waves of heavy rainfall or thunderstorms. Strong winds are likely to be more confined to the south coast of Munster later today.
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Periods of heavy to torrential rain will continue to spread across the northern half of Ireland this morning, followed by brief clearing and then further heavy showers or thunderstorms already underway in Cork and Kerry. These will also spread north and bring thundery downpours to central counties by mid-day, and further thundery showers may move inland across the south by afternoon. ... For most, the winds will continue moderate SE to E 20-40 mph but some parts of the south coast will see localized southerly gales to 50-60 mph by mid-day and afternoon as the slowly weakening low centre drifts inland near Valentia. ... Rainfalls of 20-40 mm are likely in many places with flooding possible, and the conditions may lead to overtopping of coastal areas in the south ... highs 13-15 C ... some of the later thunderstorms could produce severe lightning and hail.
TONIGHT ... Further showers or periods of rain, 5-15 mm amounts, winds peaking at around 40-65 mph (SSE) early evening south coast then diminishing through the night, other regions will see moderate southeasterly to southerly breezes 20-35 mph, and lows of about 7 C. Localized flooding could continue.
THURSDAY ... Showers continuing but heavier in Connacht and west Ulster, where 15-25 mm possible. Otherwise, 5-15 mm with variable skies and some brief sunny intervals, highs 12-14 C. The main risk of flooding would be from any continued discharges of swollen streams from earlier rainfalls as well as new flood risks in parts of the northwest.
FRIDAY ... Hopefully the system will be so weakened by Friday that rainfall amounts will be generally 2-5 mm in scattered showers and some drying can commence under partly cloudy skies, lows near 5 C and highs near 13 C.
SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, mild, isolated showers. Lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.
SUNDAY ... Cloudy and rather muggy, warm with outbreaks of rain possible in southeasterly winds of 15-30 mph. Lows near 8 C and highs 15-17 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather mild and unsettled but rainfall amounts slight, one global model features a much colder period later in the week but that depends on a combination of retrogression and weakening of Rafael that could both prove false, so we can't be very confident about that colder interval actually developing.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Heavy rainfalls spreading north, some torrential in south central, Midlands, Wales with flood risk and 30-50 mm amounts, east winds 20-40 mph veering to southerly in parts of southern England, highs generally 10-12 C but could reach 14-16 C southwest.
TONIGHT ... Further heavy showers, some with thunder, lows 7-10 C. Flood risk high in Wales and central England, spreading to northern England and southern Scotland.
THURSDAY ... Outbreaks of rain will continue with a slight improving trend across the south, average amounts 10-15 mm, highs 12-14 C.
OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy to overcast, milder, showers more isolated and some hazy sunshine at times, highs 14-16 C. Scotland more unsettled and highs 12-14 C.
Forecasts for North America
Warm and sunny on east coast with cloud and heavy showers spreading north from around eastern Texas to Minnesota. A line of severe storms is likely to develop and move towards a Chicago-Louisville-Nashville arc by this evening, with some tornadic risk. Windy and colder behind this front with mixed rain and snow in parts of the eastern prairies, Dakotas in strong to gale force NW winds. Steady rain across the northern Great Lakes with fog and east winds. Improving further west as high pressure crests over the Great Basin states, then further rain moving ashore in central to northern B.C. and Alaska.
My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with some sunny breaks and isolated showers, highs near 14 C. The dry lawns got quite a soaking over the weekend and have responded by turning almost green (not quite) with a lot of leaves down now while others are turning colour.
Check the forum threads for updates on the progress of heavy rainfall and severe local storms, coastal flooding.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Thursday, 18 October, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Showers continuing but heavier in Connacht and Ulster, where 10-20 mm possible. Otherwise, a few locations may see 5-10 mm with variable skies and some brief sunny intervals, highs 12-14 C. Some parts of the south could escape showers and remain dry. The main risk of flooding would be from any continued discharges of swollen streams from earlier rainfalls as well as any new flood risks in parts of the northwest, but by and large the worst of this system has passed. Coastal flooding should ease considerably as all related factors improve.
TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, isolated showers mainly in north, winds becoming largely calm inland with ground fog or mist. Lows 2-5 C on average, a few places could see frost.
FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals developing, isolated showers mainly north and west near coasts, and highs near 13 C.
SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, mild, isolated showers. Lows 3-6 C and highs near 14 C.
SUNDAY ... Cloudy and rather muggy, mild to warm with outbreaks of rain possible later in the day in southeasterly winds of 15-30 mph. Lows near 7 C and highs 14-16 C.
MONDAY ... Variable cloud, chance of showers, mild to warm. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather mild and unsettled but rainfall amounts slight, one global model (GFS) continues to feature a much colder period later in the week but by contrast other models have a warming trend. It's possible the outcome will be a blend allowing temperatures to fall back slightly.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... A few more showers or outbreaks of light rain will continue with a general improving trend across the south, average amounts 10-15 mm in parts of the north, highs 12-15 C.
TONIGHT ... Showers becoming more isolated, clear intervals developing in south and central parts of England, inland Wales. Lows 2-5 C in rural areas, some scattered ground frost, but milder near coasts and in larger urban areas.
OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy to overcast, milder, showers more isolated and some hazy sunshine at times, highs 14-16 C. Scotland more unsettled and highs 12-14 C.
Forecasts for North America
The eastern frontal system will drift closer to the coast but will remain inland from the lower Great Lakes across the Appalachians into the southeast, with an area of cold rain mixing with sleet or wet snow over the upper Midwest, as cold and windy conditions continue for most central regions (winds NW 30 to 50 mph). Warm and dry in the western U.S. except coastal WA where a front moving into B.C. will bring heavy rains and strong winds.
My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy but dry with a mild high of about 16 C. Rain is about to begin now.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Friday, 19 October, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Misty to start, becoming partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals developing in a few parts of the midlands, isolated showers confined mainly to north and west near coasts, and highs near 13 C.
TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy becoming overcast with mist and fog patches, lows 3 to 7 C ... isolated frost possible where it stays clear longer.
SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, mild, isolated showers. Lows 3-6 C and highs near 14 C.
SUNDAY ... Cloudy and rather muggy, mild to warm with outbreaks of rain possible later in the day (near southeast coasts) in southeasterly winds of 15-30 mph. Lows near 7 C and highs 14-16 C.
MONDAY ... Variable cloud, chance of showers, mild to warm. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.
TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... Hazy or misty, some persistent fog likely, mild. Lows 6-9 C and highs 12-16 C. Isolated showers or drizzle, turning to light rain at times.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This mild and foggy spell could persist but somewhat drier air may create more sunshine later in the week towards the following weekend, with colder nights due to the clearing conditions. The GFS model still has a much colder look than other guidance (and is therefore likely wrong since it is going against the trend) but frosty nights remain quite possible.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, some sunny intervals west and north, periods of light to moderate rain southeast (10-15 mm possible in Kent). Highs generally 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT ... Misty to foggy, showers ending east, mild. Lows 7-10 C trending to about 4-7 C in Scotland.
OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy to overcast, milder, showers more isolated and some hazy sunshine at times, highs 14-16 C. Scotland more unsettled and highs 12-14 C. This autumnal spell of rather dull and calm weather could trend more sunny by day, frosty by night towards the following weekend as higher pressure develops over Scotland.
Forecasts for North America
Chilly rain mixed in a few places with wet snow over the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, showers and a few thunderstorms moving across the larger cities of the east coast, where a warm spell will come to an end on cool westerly winds, highs generally about 14 C trending to 5-7 C well inland. Dry and bracing in the southeast with gusty westerly winds, highs near 17 C. Warm and dry over much of the southwest and almost as far north as the Dakotas, but showery across the border regions with rain and mountain snow in the B.C.-Washington mountains, gusty thunderstorms moving inland tonight and reaching eWA-ID during the mid-day period. Rain to showers on the coast, partial clearing and windy (WNW 30-50 mph).
My local weather on Thursday has been very wet, about 50 mm of rain has fallen in almost continual downpours since noon, and temperatures are around 13 C. Thunderstorms are embedded in the front just to the south of here now, but I haven't seen any lightning. (Seattle is getting pounded by this front with hail reported). Expecting a windy and showery day on Friday with some brighter intervals.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Saturday, 20 October, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Cloudy to start with some brighter intervals developing including some hazy sunshine, drizzle over parts of east Ulster slowly clearing but a few patches of fog or drizzle possible near south coast later. Rather mild with highs 13 or 14 C.
TONIGHT ... Fog or mist becoming extensive, mild, lows 6-8 C.
SUNDAY ... Cloudy and rather muggy, mild to warm with outbreaks of drizzle or light rain possible later in the day (near southeast coasts) in southeasterly winds of 15-30 mph and highs 14-16 C (milder in west).
MONDAY ... Variable cloud, slight chance of showers, mild to warm. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 or 16 C. Winds E-SE 15-25 mph.
TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... Hazy or misty, some persistent fog likely, mild. Lows 6-9 C and highs 12-16 C. Isolated showers or drizzle, turning to light rain at times near east or south coasts, but largely dry elsewhere. Warmest in the western counties due to the wind direction.
FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Not as mild but continued dry under higher pressure, night frosts (lows -2 to +3 C) and highs about 7-10 C. Increasing cloud late in the weekend, showers arriving by Monday and possibly becoming heavy for a part of the week.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and mild, some hazy sunshine developing in parts of west and north, periods of drizzle near east coast). Highs 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT ... Misty to foggy, mild. Lows 6-8 C trending to about 4-7 C in Scotland.
OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy to overcast, milder, showers more isolated and some hazy sunshine at times, highs 14-16 C. Scotland more unsettled and highs 12-14 C. This autumnal spell of rather dull and calm weather could trend more sunny by day, frosty by night towards the following weekend as higher pressure develops over Scotland. This cold, dry spell will probably fade to showers and risk of sleet or snow on northern hills by Sunday or Monday,
(28th-29th) then becoming wet during the following week.
Forecasts for North America
Unsettled and chilly across the Great Lakes, northeast U.S. with highs about 10 C, mixed showers of hail and rain, snow on higher ground. Dry and cool further south with sunshine near the Gulf coast. Also unsettled across most of western-central Canada and northern border states, outbreaks of snow over higher parts of the foothills and Rockies. Dry and warm in the southwest states.
My local weather on Friday was cloudy with late sunny intervals, and chilly with highs 11-13 C.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Sunday, 21 October, 2012
A quiet spell of misty but otherwise fine autumn weather will dominate this week in both Ireland and most of the U.K., and for that matter, in most of the U.S. -- Canada on the other hand is going to see some active weather. This is my way of saying that today's forecast is not really changed from yesterday's outlook.
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals and hazy sunshine, and rather muggy, mild to warm with outbreaks of drizzle or light rain possible later in the day (limited in area and most likely near southeast coasts) in southeasterly winds of 15-25 mph and highs 14-16 C (milder in central and west, inland north).
TONIGHT ... Fog patches, mist, patchy drizzle near coasts, mild. Lows 6-8 C.
MONDAY ... Variable cloud, slight chance of showers, mild to warm. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 or 16 C. Winds E-SE 15-25 mph.
TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... Hazy or misty, some persistent fog likely, mild. Lows 6-9 C and highs 12-16 C. Isolated showers or drizzle, turning to light rain at times near east or south coasts, but largely dry elsewhere. Warmest in the western counties due to the wind direction. Thursday will be transitional as somewhat cooler air arrives from the east, highs 12-14 C.
FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Not as mild but continued dry under higher pressure, night frosts (lows -2 to +3 C) and highs about 7-10 C. Increasing cloud late in the weekend, showers arriving by Monday and possibly becoming heavy for a part of the week, although another plausible scenario would be a gradual turn from northeast to northwest winds under anticyclonic stratus cloud and near normal temperatures.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and mild, light rain turning to drizzle over south central and eastern England, some hazy sunshine developing later in parts of west and north, periods of drizzle lingering near east coast. Highs 14 to 16 C. Winds slack at first then SSE 10-20 mph.
TONIGHT ... Misty to foggy, mild. Some persistent drizzle in parts of south and east. Lows 7-10 C trending to about 5-7 C in Scotland.
OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy to overcast, milder, showers more isolated and some hazy sunshine at times, highs 14-16 C. Scotland more unsettled and highs 12-14 C. This autumnal spell of rather dull and calm weather could trend more sunny by day, frosty by night towards the following weekend as higher pressure develops over Scotland. This cold, dry spell will probably fade to showers and risk of sleet or snow on northern hills by Sunday or Monday,
(28th-29th) then while some northern regions may become quite wet the pattern may remain rather dry across Wales and southern England further from the low in the North Sea. The main uncertainty is how much colder it will turn around Friday, and whether or not this will involve any wintry or mixed showers, or a more bland and drizzly change of a few degrees.
Forecasts for North America
Most of the U.S. will have a pleasant Sunday with more cloud than sunshine in most northern states, highs 12-16 C, but more sunshine across the southern half where temperatures will be pushing back above mid-October normals into the higher 20s. A slowly developing frontal system in the central plains will be largely dry but could set off one or two thunderstorms late today near Omaha and Kansas City. The pattern across southern Canada is more unsettled as strong lows continue to move east in a fast westerly flow, temperatures a bit below seasonal normals for most places, bringing mixed sleety precip to foothill regions in the west and northern parts of the Great Lakes, but cold rain or hail showers lower elevations of the west and southern portions of the Great Lakes. Two tropical systems are trying to get organized and could combine to threaten Florida later in the week; remnants of Rafael are now spinning around in the north central Atlantic held away from Europe by the blocking high that is bringing the mild southeast flow. Eventually this remnant low seems headed for southern Biscay where it could bring mountain snows to northern Spain and the Pyrenees and a spell of stormy weather to lower elevations of France and Spain (this around Friday to weekend).
My local weather on Saturday was cool and unsettled with passing showers, some hail not far away although just rain at my location, and snow above the 500m elevation on the roads up to ski hills around the city (the ski slopes are generally at 1200m so they got their first accumulating snowfalls).0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Monday, 22 October, 2012
Situation: A very mild air mass from Germany is pushing into Britain and France; temperatures reached 23 C in parts of the near continent on Sunday. This dome of warmer air will be over Ireland by mid-week and while it will cool off slightly there is potential for readings of 18 C in parts of the west and midlands. Eventually the high causing this southeast flow will reposition over Greenland and turn winds more to the north but an arctic front may not make any further westward progress than Yorkshire to East Anglia so that would leave Ireland in a transitional, somewhat cooler northerly that might then back to westerly as a vortex forms in the frontal zone north of Scotland and drops south then southeast. Some model solutions have a strong low then forming over Biscay and pulling cold air in from the east across Ireland in early November but this is not yet a reliable outcome. Meanwhile tropical activity could fire off a hurricane late this week and that might end up anywhere from eastern U.S. coasts to Bermuda by next weekend.
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals, but with the slight chance of showers near west and south coasts, very mild to warm. Highs 14 to 17 C warmest in midwest. Winds E-SE 15-25 mph. Some persistent low cloud or fog possible outer south coasts.
TONIGHT ... Hazy or misty with outbreaks of light rain in south, lows 8-11 C.
TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... Hazy or misty, some persistent fog likely, mild. Lows 6-9 C and highs 13-17 C and possibly 18-19 C in a few parts of the west. Isolated showers or drizzle, turning to light rain at times near east or south coasts, but largely dry elsewhere. Warmest in the western counties due to the wind direction. Thursday will be transitional as somewhat cooler air arrives from the east, highs 12-15 C. Overnight lows near 7 C in misty and drizzly conditions.
FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Not as mild but continued mostly dry under higher pressure, risk of sleety showers in Ulster and north Leinster, night frosts (lows -2 to +3 C) and highs about 7-10 C. Increasing cloud late in the weekend, showers arriving by Monday and possibly becoming heavy for a part of the week, although another plausible scenario would be a gradual turn from northeast to northwest winds under anticyclonic stratus cloud and near normal temperatures.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and mild, patchy light rain or drizzle more frequent over south central and eastern England, some hazy sunshine developing later inland, 14 to 16 C for most but could reach 18-21 C in the southeast inland. Winds SE 15-25 mph.
TONIGHT ... Misty to foggy, mild. Some persistent drizzle in parts of south and east. Lows 7-10 C trending to about 5-7 C in Scotland.
OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy to overcast, milder, showers more isolated and some hazy sunshine at times, highs 14-16 C. Scotland more unsettled and highs 12-14 C. This autumnal spell of rather dull and calm weather could trend more sunny by day, frosty by night towards the following weekend as higher pressure develops over Scotland. This cold, dry spell will probably fade to showers and risk of sleet or snow on northern hills by Sunday or Monday,
(28th-29th) then while some northern regions may become quite wet the pattern may remain rather dry across Wales and southern England further from the low in the North Sea. The main uncertainty is how much colder it will turn around Friday, and whether or not this will involve any wintry or mixed showers, which now seem quite possible in eastern England but less likely in the western parts of Britain, where it is likely to play out as a more bland and drizzly change of a few degrees. Highs could be held down to about 5-7 C in most places to 10 C southwest. There is also the risk of a fairly intense rainstorm with sleet or snow on northern hills developing later in the period around the first of November.
Forecasts for North America
Warm and dry across most of the central U.S. with areas of showery rain developing in the lower Great Lakes and Midwest, highs to about 25-28 C but staying quite a bit cooler in the northeast states and Great Lakes (12-15 C). A storm is developing over Wyoming that will bring heavy snowfalls to parts of the Rockies from Alberta south to central Colorado later today and tonight. This trends to chilly rain showers further west at lower elevations with snow on hills. There was a lot of interest in the models earlier Sunday when they began to show an intense storm of tropical origins on the east coast by the last two days of the month, but the latest guidance has backed off this intense scenario and would take the storm more towards Bermuda (likely to be "Sandy" although with two possible named storms, "Tony" may appear also). In this scenario the east coast would stay warm to the end of this week then turn considerably colder in northerly winds for Hallowe'en. The earlier scenario had gales or even storm force winds and driving rain for these areas. This may return before the week is done ... meanwhile, my local weather on Sunday was chilly and wet with the rain at my elevation turning to snow on hills, highest temperatures only 7-9 C.0 -
Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Tuesday, 23 October, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Foggy or misty to start, some rather persistent low cloud or fog over parts of east and south, better chances for a brighter mid-day interval further west and where the sun comes out it could become quite warm. Highs generally 13-15 C but potentially 17-19 C in sunshine. Winds rather light but picking up somewhat to ESE 15-25 mph in more exposed locations (inversions may keep valleys calm). You might find it's warmer well up in elevation above the stratus layer because the air is very mild at 500-800m. Where the fog is most persistent, some drizzle will make it a bit damp for drying.
TONIGHT ... Fog or drizzle, very mild. Lows 10-13 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud with the fog and mist slowly lifting, quite warm again in central and western counties as SE winds 20-30 mph succeed in bringing marine layers into the east, so highs near 14 C east and 17 C west.
THURSDAY ... The fog and mist should break up rather quickly if they survive Wednesday night with lows near 7 C, then layers of higher cloud will become broken to overcast allowing some brief sunny breaks, and there could be passing showers that leave just traces of rain in a stronger east wind, highs about 12-14 C.
FRIDAY ... A rather cold start with lows 2-4 C, then a cloudy day in most of the eastern and northern counties with some rather sleety showers in north-east Ulster and north Leinster, winds northeast 20-40 mph adding quite a chill after this warm spell, and highs 6-8 C. Further south and west, a little more sunshine and less chance of showers, highs 8-11 C.
SATURDAY ... This cold spell will quickly get overwhelmed by the return of milder Atlantic air in Ireland (although not in Britain) so expect cloudy skies, a slightly milder feel with lows 2-4 C and isolated frost, highs 9-12 C, winds backing to NW 20-35 mph.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY ... Increasing chances of rain and turning quite windy from the south to southwest as low pressure drops in from the north and loops back northeast, and this could be followed by a fresh shot of colder air on Monday (according to the ECM) although there is also a possibility of the low stalling and bringing on a much milder spell rather quickly from the look of some of today's guidance. That would bring about highs 10-13 C and 20-40 mm rainfall potential in this general period leading up to Halloween and early November, but it will be closer to 5-7 C and 2-5 mms sleety rain in the ECM scenario.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Hazy or misty, very mild, highs 17-21 C in south, 14-17 C further north, some persistent fog or drizzle on hills and near east facing coasts. Winds ESE 20-30 mph.
TONIGHT ... Foggy and very mild, lows 10-13 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Hazy, mild, drizzle at times, brisk east winds, highs 14-17 C, but turning a bit colder afternoon-evening in eastern counties especially north of Lincs.
OUTLOOK ... Colder in stages through Thursday and Friday, showery precip becoming mixed or even wintry on northern hills, highs near sea level 5-8 C by Friday. Showers and some sleet on hills by weekend, turning to a heavy rain late in the weekend and into Monday. Temperatures slowly rising to about 9-10 C, then possibly steady or falling off again especially in the north, some chance of snow for Scotland by about Tuesday 30th.
Forecasts for North America
By any standard the most interesting part of this forecast is the outlook period. From today to about Saturday, the eastern U.S. will be under a warm, dry air mass except close to the Great Lakes where showers and thunderstorms will pass. Highs 24-27 C in this region. Further west, a slow moving cold front will bring a sharp drop in temperatures to western parts of the plains states late tonight and tomorrow, and further east through the week. Temperatures will drop to about 8-10 C with this front. Today, some outbreaks of heavy wet snow are likely across the Rockies and western Canada inland, showers on the coast. This storm is going to plod east for about four days and models are playing with the concept of it phasing into a bomb cyclone with "Sandy" which has now developed over the Caribbean south of Jamaica, northbound for 2-3 days on track for the Bahamas. By the weekend these systems could merge into a powerful bomb cyclone near Cape Hatteras with a landfall possible around Long Island on Tuesday 30th. The range of outcomes includes a track well out to sea with a weaker system forming instead, or a slower development closer to New Jersey-Delaware. In any case, as you can imagine, American based weather forums are approaching the hyperventilation point as these developments slowly unfold. There is some chance of damage and disruption in the New York-New Jersey, Long Island and New England region from about Monday 29th to Thursday 1st of November.
My local weather on Monday was rather bland, cloudy with highs near 10 C and some drizzly rain at present time, as we're on the outer edges of the Wyoming storm. The snow line has retreated up the slopes to about 700m at last look. It may come back down on Tuesday as winds here become more northeasterly.0 -
It's already Tuesday 23rd here MT!! :-)0
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Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.
Wednesday, 24 October, 2012
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Extensive low cloud, fog and mist with the best chance of any mid-day or afternoon clearing (or at least brighter intervals) in the west, as winds continue to flow in from the east to northeast at 15-25 mph. Highs 13-15 C for most and potentially near 17 C where it does clear. Fog and mist returning by late afternoon where it clears. Some light rain as well as the drizzle from fog, 1-2 mm could accumulate in some eastern locations, ground will remain damp or wet in those areas. (also, fog will become dense soon after sunset as a result of the higher humidity)
TONIGHT ... Little change with mild, breezy and foggy conditions for most, lows 8-11 C. Some light rain at times in eastern counties.
THURSDAY ... The fog and mist should break up rather quickly, then layers of higher cloud will become broken to overcast allowing some brief sunny breaks, and there could be passing showers that leave just traces of rain in a stronger east wind, highs about 12-14 C although temperatures could begin to fall off towards 8-10 C in east Ulster and north Leinster.
FRIDAY ... A rather cold start with lows 2-4 C, then a cloudy day in most of the eastern and northern counties with some rather sleety showers in north-east Ulster and north Leinster, winds northeast 20-40 mph adding quite a chill after this warm spell, and highs 6-8 C. Further south and west, a little more sunshine and less chance of showers, highs 8-11 C.
FRIDAY NIGHT ... Although there is potential for frost and lows of -3 to -1 C this may be hit or miss due to persistent low cloud that may keep temperatures higher in some spots, with the chance of fluctuations between frosty and thawing temperatures during the night. Some icy patches are likely and because of the variable conditions this may be more dangerous (if the frost was more widespread everyone would be more aware of it on their journeys). Winds will fall off light or calm in some inland areas but coastal margins will retain northerly breezes of 10-20 mph; this and the marine exposure will keep overnight temperatures near 3-5 C in some coastal areas, so no frost there.
SATURDAY ... This cold spell will quickly get overwhelmed by the return of milder Atlantic air in Ireland (although not in Britain) so expect cloudy skies, rain arriving in north late in the day, a slightly milder feel once the scattered frost is flushed out, highs 9-12 C, winds backing to NW 20-35 mph.
SUNDAY ... Showers or periods of rain (10-15 mm) with moderate SW winds 20-40 mph veering to west and northwest late in the day, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C but turning colder again by evening.
MONDAY ... Raw and cold with passing showers (1-3 mm), some sleety on higher ground, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C. Winds northerly 25-35 mph abating somewhat later.
OUTLOOK ... The outlook period is very uncertain now because the models are struggling to establish a future track for "Sandy" -- there are now suggestions that it could turn east before reaching New England and end up becoming part of the picture for Europe around the first of November. In any event, it looks more likely to be unsettled and it could become very wet or stormy depending on how things play out.
Forecasts for Britain
TODAY ... Extensive low cloud and fog, breaking in a few spots to hazy brightness perhaps without much sunshine, mild or very mild, drizzle at times, some patchy light rain in East Anglia and north of London, and brisk east winds developing 25-35 mph (higher gusts near east coast), highs 13-17 C, but turning a bit colder afternoon-evening in eastern counties especially north of Lincs.
TONIGHT ... Broken cloud or mist, not as foggy for most but some patchy dense fog in valleys, a bit colder than recent nights, lows 5-7 C.
THURSDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers in a brisk northeast wind, some sleet or snow developing over higher parts of northern England and Scotland, less likely in Wales except on summit of Snowdon, with highs generally 7-10 C mildest in southwest and Wales, coldest in northeast (readings near 3-5 C on higher slopes).
THURSDAY NIGHT ... Frosty in a few spots, sleety showers or wet snow on hills in north, lows 1-3 C on average.
FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated sleety or wintry showers mostly near North Sea, winds NNE 20-40 mph, cold. Highs near 7 C on average but could be held to 3-4 C in some northern areas.
FRIDAY NIGHT ... Icy roads and extensive frost with lows -4 to -1 C but a few locations frost-free due to breeze off water or low cloud.
OUTLOOK ... Milder in stages over the weekend, becoming wet from north to south but some heavier rainfalls by Sunday, windy at times, colder again on Monday with mixed precip away from the milder south, and most likely to turn wet and perhaps stormy after that.
Forecasts for North America
In the short term, the pattern is unfolding as discussed yesterday (or whenever that was) ... warm and dry across most of the U.S. especially central plains east to Virginia where temperatures will once again reach the 25-30 C range. It's not very humid with this late summery warm spell. Even in Florida with tropical air streaming in from the northeast, less humid than midsummer but hot enough at 31 C. Much of western Canada is under snowfall of 5-15 cms with further flurries today, strong north winds and -2 C, then in valleys near the west coast a bit milder where it's a cool, damp and cloudy day with highs near 7 C. Outbreaks of rain and thundershowers continue from about Manitoba east to Quebec and across the Great Lakes region in general, ahead of the warmer air which will push in late today in some parts, leading to dense fog.
The big weather story, however, is developing hurricane Sandy (still a tropical storm approaching Jamaica) which the European model continues to predict moving north towards Long Island for an apparently catastrophic landfall with winds in excess of 100 mph possible. This scenario is not yet supported by other models although the difference is one of "phasing" where the other models don't allow the hurricane to join up with the cold front now in the west-central U.S. and predicted to be near the east coast by Sunday. These other models show the hurricane swerving east to the north of Bermuda on Sunday then edging further away or looping around back towards far eastern Canada during the week. But the latest European model continues to show a very deep low (whether it's then a hurricane or extratropical won't matter much) of 935 mbs approaching New York City on Monday. If this verifies, there would be a major weather disaster, for one thing it is full moon on the 29th so there could be exceptional storm surges on the east side of the track (Long Island, CT-RI) much like what happened in the infamous 1938 storm. But this one is closer to NYC and the eye could even go over the city or at least the near eastern suburbs. So this will be the weather story of the next week until perhaps it becomes a confirmed case of danger past (which I hope is true, but the reasoning embedded in the Euro scenario is plausible). Meanwhile "Tony" has formed northeast of Puerto Rico and is heading for the Azores as a rather weak tropical storm.
My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with sprinkles of light rain, the lawns and some sidewalks here are now covered with wet greasy leaves that have been falling for days in rainy conditions, and it's rather chilly with the high about 9 C locally.0
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