Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 4 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Winter storm conditions for many locations away from milder south and east coasts, parts of far north could stay dry until storm passes and then will see wintry showers in a very cold northerly flow Monday-Tuesday. Staying cold all week, any lying snow will be slow to melt.

FORECASTS
TODAY will be overcast except for some brighter intervals in parts of the northeast this morning. Rain will begin to fall along the south coast, spreading inland as sleet turning to heavy wet snow by this afternoon. It will stay dry until tonight in central, eastern and most northern counties. Cold with highs near 4 C (7 to 10 C in a few parts of the coastal southwest). Once sleet begins temperatures will fall to around 0.5 to 1.5 C. Winds will increase to northeast 40-70 km/hr and stronger gusts in Kerry and coastal Cork, Waterford.
TONIGHT widespread winter storm conditions over the southern half of the country, inland from a wet and raw south coast. Sleet and snow accumulating to 5-15 cm in counties south of a Galway to Dublin line, winds northeast 40-70 km/hr, lows near -1 C. Further north, intermittent snow, 2-5 cm possible, lows near -2 C. Thunder may accompany snow or sleet.
SUNDAY the storm will continue, shifting gradually east and turning sleet or cold rain over to snow in some coastal areas too. Eventually a total of 15-30 cm snow could fall, heaviest in south central counties and parts of the midlands. There could also eventually be some 5 cm accumulations closer to coasts and in parts of the north. Winds northerly 60 to 90 km/hr at times, adding quite a chill to very cold temperatures 1 to 4 C (a little lower over deeper snow).
MONDAY windy and cold, wintry showers and 3-5 cm new accumulations of snow in parts of the north, skies partly cloudy to overcast, winds northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs 2 to 5 C.
It will stay quite cold all week, any snow cover will tend to melt rather slowly but if there aren't further snowfalls, a patchy snow cover will likely remain by the end of the week. Overnight lows could fall well below -5 C over snow, if skies clear, and if not, lows will be around -3 to -6 C, ice fog will become widespread inland. Some coastal areas without snow may manage to get a bit milder, highs 5 to 7 C are possible in a few places.
Although guidance is mixed, I get the feeling it will be a long, gradual warming trend through mid-month with high pressure allowing more of a southeast to southerly flow to develop, temperatures will edge up towards seasonal average values and perhaps eventually into the milder 8 to 11 C range, but it could take ten days to get that mild.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy, breezy and cold with highs near -5 C. A skiff of snow (1-2 cm) fell during the late afternoon.

Take care during this winter storm, travel in many areas will not be advisable -- updates will be posted if forecasts change or any special details need to be added.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 5 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Winter storm conditions in some parts of the south today, cold rain or sleet in other locations, dry in parts of the north. The rest of the week will be generally cold and dry with scattered falls of snow in the north, and then it will begin to turn milder late in the week with rain returning at times, followed by near average temperatures and dry weather associated with nearby high pressure in a southerly flow.

FORECASTS

TODAY further falls of snow and sleet across the south (inland) could lead to very difficult travelling conditions in parts of Munster and South Leinster. Potential for 10-15 cm more snow (some reports from higher locations in west Munster already give 40 cm amounts but in general the snowfall has been hit or miss and more typically 5-8 cm). ... A cold rain will continue in some coastal areas, mixing more as sleet then wet snow towards end of the storm as it pulls away, and winds back from east-northeast to north-northeast 40 to 70 km/hr. Temperatures will remain steady in a range of zero to 4 C, so whatever your morning temperature is (mildest near east coast) it's likely not going to change much until it begins to drop slowly in the mid to late afternoon hours.
TONIGHT a few wintry showers but generally dry after the last of the sleet pulls away from the southeast. Very cold with northerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows -3 to +2 C.
MONDAY to WEDNESDAY will be very cold and generally dry in most areas, frosty nights and some ice fog possible, tending to linger over lying snow. Morning lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs 2 to 5 C, but even colder in a few places over snow. Scattered snow showers in the north will probably be few and isolated at first, becoming more frequent and widespread in Ulster and north Connacht by Tuesday.
THURSDAY could be the coldest day of the wintry spell as a weak high pressure ridge drifts across Ireland and this may allow clearing of skies in more areas, and with that heavy snow cover still on the ground in parts of upland west Munster, locally it could be as cold as -10 C. But in general -7 to -3 C will be most probable, and the day will only warm to near +1 or +2 C.
By FRIDAY some scattered snow or sleet will turn to a cold rain as a weak system moves north near the Atlantic coasts. Highs will creep up a little towards 7 C.
A milder and generally dry regime will follow as the highest pressure reforms over west-central Europe and promotes a southerly flow, highs could be in the range of 8 to 11 C, some areas will continue to have rather chilly nights. Any remnant snow will likely be gone by about 14th of January (except on peaks).

My local weather on Saturday was milder with a few brighter intervals and no precipitation for a change, highs near 2 C. This turned some parking lots rather slushy but in general our 40 cm snow pack is holding in good condition (50 to 100 cm in the nearby mountains, and still just 2 to 5 cm in a few spots in the valleys).
Washington DC is bracing not only for the big political events on Monday (congress certifies the recent election) but also a possible 30-40 cm of snow, as a storm is developing tonight over Kansas and will track through Missouri and Kentucky on Sunday to reach West Virginia on Monday morning. This snowstorm won't bring much snow north of Philadelphia to Atlantic City NJ.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 6 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Cold and windy for several days, scattered wintry showers, more frequent in west and north. After a brief dry interval around Thursday with locally severe frosts over remaining snow, turning milder with a bit of sleet and rain at first, dry for several days after Friday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy and cold with mostly cloudy skies, a few brighter intervals in southern and central counties. Bands of mixed wintry showers have already developed in the west, snow may fall on higher terrain with these. In Ulster, the snow line may be closer to sea level in mixed wintry showers. Highs 4 to 7 C. Winds northwest 50 to 70 km/hr.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast and very cold, with further mixed wintry showers. Lows -3 to +2 C.
TUESDAY will bring further bands of mixed wintry showers and snow could accumulate to 2-5 cm in parts of the north and hills in western counties. Winds northwest 40 to 60 km/hr, very cold with highs 2 to 6 C.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy, still rather breezy, wintry showers in west and north, possibly some sleet for a time in south, cold, lows -5 to -2 C and highs 2 to 6 C.
THURSDAY will be less windy and with some clear intervals, morning lows could be frigid especially over any remaining snow cover, -9 to -4 C is the general range expected away from a few more moderate coastal locations in the west and north (near 2 C). The day will see some lingering fog and frost, warming only to near the freezing point in some inland areas, 3 to 6 C around coastal districts.
FRIDAY sleet turning to rain, milder in stages, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 4 to 7 C.
From SATURDAY on, a milder southerly flow will bring temperatures up into the 7-10 C range for most, nights could still be rather cold in places near lying snow as it gradually disappears over the weekend. This dry spell could last for a week to ten days and guidance is a bit divided on how it ends up, with some suggestions of a colder easterly spell to follow, and other guidance showing a gradual return to westerly flow and disturbances coming in from the Atlantic.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with fog at times and it was around -2 C. Snow is falling across the Ohio valley and mid-Atlantic coastal states, 20 to 30 cm is expected by end of the day.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 7 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Cold with scattered wintry showers, snow continuing to lie in parts of inland south, very cold nights with freezing fog possible ... a slow moderating trend by Friday will take most areas well above freezing by Saturday. Even so, the snow in deepest areas of accumulation will only melt gradually. Icy roads at times due to fast-moving snow showers and partial melting, refreezing.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with scattered wintry showers, many of them producing snow or sleet. All counties could see some of this activity but it will likely be more frequent in Ulster, Connacht and west Munster. Cold and rather windy at times, northwest 40 to 60 km/hr, highs 2 to 5 C.
TONIGHT will become less windy and with some clearing here and there, colder overnight lows of -7 to -2 C are likely.
WEDNESDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals in many areas, rather cloudy in Ulster and north Connacht however, with a few more wintry showers as winds turn more to northeast at relatively light speeds of 30 to 50 km/hr. An area of sleet will skim past Cork in the southwest coastal districts, keeping an eye on this weak disturbance in case it veers further inland but at the moment that looks unlikely. Highs 3 to 6 C.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT into THURSDAY, nearly calm so it's likely to become very cold and freezing fog could develop especially over snow-covered areas, lows could reach -10 C in some parts of the inland south, and -7 C elsewhere, and highs on Thursday could struggle if fog persists, staying in a range of -2 to +2 C, although a few coastal locations and the northwest generally will probably see closer to +5 C highs. Sunshine is possible where fog dissipates.
FRIDAY wet snow, sleet and rain will move slowly north in bands, as temperatures slowly rise from -2 to +6 C. Some dense fog could develop along with the sleet to rain bands. Winds southeast 30 to 50 km/hr. Dense fog is likely by Friday night.
SATURDAY breezy and milder, with variable cloud. Highs near 8 C.
A milder regime will likely follow, guidance is beginning to edge away from any scenarios other than a continued mild southwest flow with high pressure staying close enough to prevent much if any precipitation for about a week. That will mean snow cover will very gradually disappear more through sublimation than melting, avoiding a lot of flooding but there could be some ponding of meltwater in towns where snow has built up.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with a few patches of sunshine late in the afternoon, highs near -2 C. The predicted snowfall in the Washington DC area has come and gone, leaving 15 to 25 cm in that region; New York City saw about 3 cm. It's going to stay quite cold in eastern regions of the U.S. and Canada while the west warms up.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 8 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Very cold with some freezing fog inland to early Friday, then bands of snow, sleet and rain pushing north and bringing in a milder regime that will be fully established by Sunday. It will then be mild and dry for several days.

ALERT ... Widespread black ice has formed and roadways and pavements could be treacherous, caution required. This condition could last much of the day in colder areas inland.

FORECASTS
TODAY will be very cold with some lingering freezing fog inland, high cloud obscuring the sun for most of the morning in the south, sunny intervals further north with a few isolated snow showers near north coasts of Ulster and Connacht. Highs could remain below freezing inland especially where freezing fog develops and will be generally in a range of -2 to +3 C, a little higher in a few coastal locations (to +6).
TONIGHT will see any freezing fog becoming thicker and temperatures all over the country will likely be frigid, in a range from -10 to -5 C, except for a few coastal locations closer to -2 C. Icy roads and pavements will continue to be a hazard.
THURSDAY gradual clearing of any freezing fog except in a few valley locations, but staying bitterly cold, sunny with cloudy intervals after fog lifts, light winds. Highs -2 to +4 C. Expect a continuation of icy or slippery roads and pavements. (even into milder conditions for a time on Friday, some ice may be slow to melt in a slowly rising temperature)
FRIDAY bands of snow, sleet and rain will form overnight and move slowly north, but Ulster will remain dry until evening. Morning lows before the precip arrives could once again be very cold but only in northern counties this time, -5 C in places. Temperatures will likely fall a bit in the evening to near -3 C and rise to +2 C later in other areas. Daytime temperatures will gradually rise to near 10 C in the south, 7 C central, 3 C northern counties. Foggy with the sleet and rain, and fog may linger through Friday night also.

SATURDAY will see the last of sleet and rain move out of Ulster, then variable cloud will follow; it will be a bit milder in general, with highs reaching 5 to 7 C.
SUNDAY will be even milder in a stronger south to southwest breeze, partly cloudy to overcast, highs near 11 C (it could stay a few degrees colder in some snow-covered areas).
A fairly prolonged mild and dry interval will be good news for just about everybody, in part because it should mean that snow will just gradually disappear by sublimation rather than melting and causing a flood risk, but even so, some minor flooding is possible. (sublimation is where a solid (snow in this instance) disappears as vapour, similar to evaporation except that involves a liquid turning to vapour).

My local weather was cloudy and rather cold with a high near -3 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 9 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... One more very cold day and then a gradual regime change towards mild and dry weather. To get there, bands of snow, sleet and freezing rain must move through on Friday, but this system looks relatively weak and as snow melts, flooding risks will be moderate rather than extreme; even so, a few drainage areas with heavy snow cover today will be at risk of some flooding by later Saturday into Sunday/Monday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see some patchy freezing fog and widespread ice and frost to mid-day at least, eventually some hazy sunshine in places, weak wintry showers across parts of the north. Highs 2 to 7 C.
TONIGHT light snow at times will turn to sleet, and then (near south coast at least) rain. It will become quite foggy. Icy with freezing fog in parts of the north midlands, Ulster and Leinster. Lows early on will be -4 to -1 C, then temperatures will likely rise slowly to near 4 C in the south, and zero or +1 C in the sleet band gradually advancing into the midlands.
FRIDAY the bands of rain, sleet and snow will continue to drift slowly north. As temperatures gradually rise above freezing across the snow-covered inland south, some melting will take place but a wet icy surface can remain slippery despite above freezing temperatures (I live in a climate zone specializing in that kind of weather condition). So don't let your guard down until the roads and pavements are clear, the mild trend will eventually do that over the weekend for most. Highs on Friday will be near 7 C in the south and 3 to 5 C central, 1 to 3 C Ulster.
SATURDAY any remnant sleet or rain will gradually end during the morning and foggy skies will clear to partly cloudy conditions; it will become milder with highs 7 to 10 C.
SUNDAY to perhaps end of next week now looking very mild and generally dry thanks to high pressure nearby, but with enough of a southerly flow to bring in temperatures near 11 or 12 C. Nights will be milder too. Any remnant snow will continue to melt.
Some rivers in the south and southwest could reach flood stage as all this snow melts; it will be helpful that the dry spell could encourage part of the pack to sublimate away, but I do see potential for flooding around places like Listowel and Cashel.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy with a bit of afternoon brightness, not quite sunshine but by recent standards here, we'll take anything not involving fog and low cloud ceilings. It was reasonably mild at -1 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 10 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Gradually turning milder today with bands of sleet and rain, followed by fog overnight, a little milder again on Saturday, then very mild from Sunday on, generally dry with a few outbreaks of light rain in west during this milder interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY outbreaks of sleet and snow, and patchy freezing rain in parts of the inland southeast, to west-central counties. Rain and milder temperatures will slowly move into the southwest and make slow progress into central counties later. Temperatures will rise rather slowly all day in most places, reaching 5-7 C in west Munster, 2-5 C central and southeast, zero to 3 C in Ulster and north midlands, north Leinster. It will remain very slippery as ice remains a hazard when covered with thin layers of meltwater, so drive and walk with extreme caution in those zones today.

TONIGHT foggy and drizzly, still some sleet or wet snow in parts of Ulster and north Leinster, temperatures steady 2 to 5 C in most places but zero to 2 C in the northeast.

SATURDAY will see a few more outbreaks of sleet and rain in parts of the north and east as variable cloud and milder conditions arrive in southern, western and central counties where highs will reach about 6 or 7 C. SUNDAY partly cloudy to overcast, breezy, mild, temperatures steady 8 to 10 C. Even milder by Sunday night into MONDAY with stronger south to southwest winds bringing in temperatures near 12 C. Some rain will move into the west and north at times by TUESDAY with highs 10 to 12 C. This milder spell will likely last for most of the remainder of January.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy and cold with a high near -4 C. A winter storm broke out over parts of Texas and Oklahoma, spreading into Louisiana. It will move through the inland southeastern states today and will give parts of the east coast around 10-15 cm of snow on Saturday before heading out to sea.


M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 11 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Milder with temperatures above normal by Monday and Tuesday, perhaps slightly cooler again later in the week but only by a degree or two. Generally dry except for occasional light rain in some western counties. The week following this outlook week will perhaps be more unsettled and windy with the mild trend continuing, as the Atlantic fires up after a week of anticyclonic dominance.

FORECASTS

TODAY will feature a mixture of cloud and some sunny breaks, as a few patchy areas of rain gradually move away from east Ulster and north Leinster this morning. Highs 6 to 9 C (10 or 11 C near south coast). A few drainage basins in the south and southwest could see moderate flooding due to runoff from higher elevation snowmelt.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with fog patches, some slight frosts may develop well inland across north midlands and inland southeast. Lows -1 to +3 C.
SUNDAY cloudy with a few brighter intervals, breezy, highs 9 to 12 C. Still some risk of localized flooding from snowmelt in a few areas.
MONDAY and TUESDAY will be very mild with moderate south to southwest winds, lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C. Some rain in western counties at times, spreading into Ulster, amounts not very great (3-5 mm). Any deep snow not completely melted this weekend (in populated areas) will certainly be gone by Tuesday.
From WEDNESDAY to end of next week, a little cooler again as the southerly gradient slackens and high pressure builds up closer to Ireland. Rather cloudy with a few sunny spells. Lows 4 to 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C.
It may start to get more unsettled by weekend of 18th-19th and beyond, as Atlantic disturbances begin to strengthen and move in closer to Ireland, bringing some intervals of wet and windy weather. Temperatures should stay relatively mild with highs on either side of 10 C.

My local weather on Friday featured almost continuous very light snow with tiny flakes like drizzle, but it managed to accumulate at a rate of about 1 cm every two hours for a while, with temperatures near -3 C. Snow moved through parts of the inland southeastern U.S. and has now reached Virginia, Washington DC and Maryland. It will largely avoid cities further north although a separate system could bring a few inches here and there.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 12 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Mild and relatively dry in most regions, some light rain at times further west and north. The week after the outlook period will likely turn more unsettled with larger amounts of rain and occasional strong winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mild with moderate southerly winds developing, 40 to 60 km/hr. Occasional light rain in west and north. Some fog gradually clearing in east. Highs 10 to 12 C (6 to 9 C east Ulster and north Leinster).
TONIGHT will continue very mild with temperatures steady in a range of 8 to 10 C. Occasional rain will continue in parts of the west and north.
MONDAY and TUESDAY will also be very mild with occasional light rain still mainly over western and northern counties, but sometimes spreading a bit further east. Temperatures steady in a range of 11 to 13 C and not falling off very much if at all overnight.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will continue mild. It may be one or two degrees cooler than previous days but still reaching 10 or 11 C.
By weekend of 18-19 Jan, some rain at times, and stronger southwest winds although not expected to be stormy.
More active weather will likely follow.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with some sunny intervals developing mid-day, highs near -2 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 13 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Mild and dry for most, some light rain at times mostly in western counties, becoming more unsettled next week but staying mild also.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and mild with rain spreading into western counties, breaking up as showers as it attempts to push further east. Moderate south to southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr, and highs 12 to 14 C.
TONIGHT will remain quite mild, with patchy drizzle in a few places, becoming rather foggy. Lows 8 to 10 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, mild, highs 12 to 14 C.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy, lows 6 to 8 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY, little change, very mild, highs 10 to 13 C.
By the weekend, some light rain could develop at times, with temperatures staying near 10 C.
Next week looks more active at times, with intervals of rain and stronger winds. Temperatures should stay well above freezing. There are hints of more wintry scenarios towards end of second week (towards end of January) but with very low confidence in details I won't bother to describe those as they aren't likely to verify as shown now anyway.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and quite cold, high around -4 C. The weather in the eastern U.S. was relatively tranquil and a bit milder than last week, but a colder outbreak is heading in from the plains states where temperatures have fallen to around -15 C overnight.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 14 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Very mild and generally dry to weekend, increasing amounts of rain likely after Saturday, with temperatures staying relatively mild.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, brief intervals of patchy drizzle, and quite mild, highs 12 to 14 C.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with fog patches, lows 5 to 8 C.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will remain mild and there could be some sunny intervals with perhaps more cloud in western counties, not much if any rain. Highs each day 11 to 13 C and nights well above freezing, 5 to 8 C.
WEEKEND looks a little more unsettled with weak frontal systems producing occasional light rain or showers, highs 10 to 12 C and lows 4 to 7 C.
NEXT WEEK likely to become more unsettled, but details will come into better focus by end of this week. Models have very deep low pressure near the central North Atlantic by about Wed 22nd to Fri 24th, any remnant of that approaching Ireland could create a significant storm but details are too sketchy to speculate about what kind of impact that could have, we'll be watching developments.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy and misty over local hills, chilly with highs around -5 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 15 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Mild and dry to about mid-day Saturday, then showery at times, slowly turning colder in stages next week before a milder and possibly windy interval at end of January.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be sunny to partly cloudy and mild, highs 9 to 12 C.
TONIGHT partly cloudy, lows 3 to 7 C.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue dry, partly cloudy and mild, highs near 11 C.
SATURDAY increasing cloud, some light rain in west, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
SUNDAY showers then clearing, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.
NEXT WEEK will turn a bit colder, some light rain at times in south as winds turn easterly, temperatures in range of 5 to 8 C. Later in the week it could be briefly cold enough to snow but guidance suggests only small amounts of snow in the 2-4 cm range. That would come around weekend of 25-26 Jan, then it should begin to turn quite mild and windy in a stronger southerly flow at the end of January.
My local weather on Tuesday was mostly cloudy with the cloud deck at our elevation and just above the valley where there now is very little snow cover (we still have 50-60 cm and the gradient down the short distance to the Columbia River is quite apparent).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 16 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Mild and dry to weekend, a few showers then; staying around a similar temperature range into next week, slightly cooler at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny and mild with perhaps more persistent cloud in western counties this morning; highs 8 to 11 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals, lows 2 to 5 C.
FRIDAY partly cloudy, highs 8 to 11 C.
SATURDAY increasing cloud, some light rain by afternoon and evening in western counties, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
SUNDAY a few showers, partial clearing later, highs near 11 C.
NEXT WEEK now looks a little less likely to turn cold, as that air mass is being blocked out by a feeble but persistent flow from the Atlantic. It may turn a few degrees cooler mid-week but there won't be a lot of change in the current bland weather pattern. Earlier on Wednesday there were some violent looking charts showing up for later in the month; these have disappeared from the later guidance for now, but I would imagine there will be some more suggestions of volatile or stormy weather late in January as that seems to be the trend for the central Atlantic going forward. Nothing definite to report on that scenario yet though.

My local weather was sunny all day for a pleasant change, and it wasn't overly cold either at +1 C but it's quite cold out now under clear skies. We've just had a full moon in recent days so now it's rising in the late evening hours.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 17 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... A rather bland weather pattern for now, continuing into next week ... turning a bit cooler mid-week but not a severe wintry spell ... then much more active around weekend of 25-26 Jan as most guidance agrees that deep low pressure will be quite close to Ireland and there may be a second stormy period to follow.

FORECASTS
TODAY will be cloudy with some brighter intervals mostly in east and south, a few raindrops but not very persistent showers, and mild with highs 10 to 13 C.
TONIGHT partly cloudy, mild, lows 5 to 8 C.
SATURDAY cloudy with sunny breaks, rain edging slowly towards west coast and arriving some time before evening, highs 10 to 12 C.
SUNDAY a few showers, then partial clearing, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.
MONDAY to WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast and turning slightly cooler with highs a degree or two cooler each day, ending up by mid-week around 7 C. Nights could become slightly frosty inland too. Not much if any wintry precipitation and just a few outbreaks of drizzle or light rain despite the cooler trend.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY of next week are likely to bring some rain at times and a slowly increasing southeasterly wind, temperatures steady around 5 to 8 C.
We consider it too far off in terms of timing to get very specific yet about how deep low pressure west of Ireland could impact the weather around Saturday 25th, but some kind of stormy outcome seems at least moderately likely, more likely to be rain than snow from the evidence so far. And there could be a second wave of unsettled weather to follow near the last few days of the month.
My local weather was cloudy and cold with a little light snow at times, highs near -5 C. Eastern parts of North America are bracing for a very cold week starting after a relatively mild weekend, and possibly a snowstorm around Monday. That may be the first in a chain of events across the Atlantic to end up with major low pressure areas in the vicinity of Ireland by Friday-Saturday (a week away yet).

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 18 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... A rather quiet weather pattern for now, will gradually give way to very active and possibly stormy weather later in the month. It will turn a bit colder at times then return to current levels when the lows start becoming active.

FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy, any frost in the Dublin area will dissipate soon, as most areas are a lot milder already. Highs will reach 10 to 12 C.
TONIGHT will become overcast with light rain at times, lows 4 to 7 C.
SUNDAY will be cloudy with showers, followed by partial clearing, highs near 11 C.
MONDAY cloudy with a few breaks, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will turn a few degrees colder with scattered showers in a light east to southeast flow, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 5 to 9 C.
THURSDAY cloudy with occasional rain, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.
After Friday 25th, a more active weather pattern is likely. A very strong low is indicated on all guidance slowly approaching Ireland around Saturday 26th, but it seems likely to veer north and then back to the west by Sunday 27th. The net result of that will be breezy to windy conditions and occasional rain in a mild southwest flow. A more impactful event could take place a few days later if this low spawns a secondary low that will track closer to Ireland around the end of the month. That could be a very windy system but too far off at present to speculate about details.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and very cold, the morning lows were near -15 C (our lowest reading of a fairly mild winter so far) and the high was only -8 C. We are on the outer edges of a frigid arctic air mass over central Canada that is expected to sink into the U.S. and bring snowfalls by Sunday to the east coast, followed by a winter storm in the normally temperate Gulf coast region by about Tuesday-Wednesday. That one will become the intense low in the Atlantic that I mentioned, once it passes Bermuda it will explode into a very deep low (some charts have it below 930 mbs). Such very deep lows often swerve north towards Iceland, the infamous 1839 "Big wind" was a similar low that did not do what others since have done, and instead headed into Donegal Bay at that very low pressure. So we need to keep an eye on what happens but so far it's the secondary event later in January that looks more threatening and it is not being shown as reaching a central pressure below 960 mbs so far.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 19 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Staying rather mild and turning cloudy, with a few outbreaks of light rain but not much will reach eastern counties, if any. A little colder at times midweek. Possibly stormy by Friday.

FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with a few outbreaks of light rain in the southwest mainly, sometimes spreading a bit further east. Highs 9 to 12 C.
TONIGHT variable cloud, light showers dissipating, lows near 6 C.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers, some locations will remain dry, highs near 10 C.
TUESDAY partly cloudy, a few showers, lows near 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C.
WEDNESDAY sunny intervals, isolated showers, wintry at times in north, as colder air makes a brief appearance there, highs 2 to 4 C in north, 5 to 8 C central and southern counties.
THURSDAY cloudy, becoming windy late in the day with rain sweeping in from the west.
FRIDAY ... guidance has changed over the past few cycles to a fairly strong signal for an Atlantic gale to approach south-central Ireland and track across the midlands, bringing very strong winds and locally heavy rain, temperatures near 10 C. There is some chance this outlook will continue to evolve as it has been doing over the past several days, but if guidance locks in on this storm to develop and arrive, it will be a warning level event. (see last paragraph concerning N. American weather for a guide to how this storm is supposed to get its start)...
Beyond Friday, it looks breezy to windy for several more days with stronger pulses of energy in the flow at times, temperatures likely to remain in the 7 to 10 C range.

My local weather was cold and dry with increasing higher cloud layers spreading in, highs near -7 C. Snow will develop over eastern states of the U.S. and spread to Atlantic Canada on Monday. This storm heads for west Greenland and a new disturbance is expected to form near Bermuda on Tuesday. This would become the potential Friday windstorm for Ireland as it rapidly intensifies (before it arrives it could be below 940 mbs).

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 20 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Partly cloudy to overcast with small amounts of rain from now until late Thursday, becoming stormy Thursday night into Friday, strong winds and heavy rain likely. Blustery and rather cool on the weekend before another storm arrives Sunday, details may need a few more days on that one.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with isolated showers, highs 9 to 11 C.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with lows near 5 C.
TUESDAY overcast with a few showers, highs 8 to 10 C.
WEDNESDAY sunny intervals, isolated showers, colder. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 5 to 8 C.
THURSDAY variable cloud, rain developing, becoming very windy overnight into Friday. Lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.
FRIDAY windy with stormy conditions at times especially in northwest coastal counties, rain and squally showers. Lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C south, central, 10 C north.
WEEKEND of 25-26 Jan will bring continued rather windy and unsettled weather with temperatures around 7 C.
It may become stormy a second time by Sunday into Monday, details on that event not too clear with quite a spread in predicted storm tracks on different models today.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy to sunny and cold, although somewhat more moderate than previously, with a high near -4 C. Eastern regions of North America had a fairly widespread 10 to 15 cm snowfall followed by a plunge into the deep freeze; that very cold air is going as far south as the Gulf of Mexico, and could set off a winter storm along the gulf coast by Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 21 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... A few more days of rather bland weather will be terminated late Thursday by stormy conditions, according to all guidance at present ... I will discuss this situation in detail below ... conditions will remain unsettled with near-normal temperatures expected through weekend and into next week.

FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy once any fog dissipates, and there are a few showers mostly near coasts this morning. Highs 8 to 10 C.
TONIGHT quite chilly with local frosts, lows -3 to +3 C. A few fog patches are likely again.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy, cold, scattered but generally brief and light showers, some wintry. Highs near 5 C.
THURSDAY will become breezy during the morning, outbreaks of rain could be followed by sleet as a colder air mass makes a brief appearance. Temperatures steady around 5 to 7 C could fall off somewhat before recovering as a storm approaches in the evening.
FRIDAY potentially stormy with very strong winds and intervals of heavy rain followed by squally showers. Temperatures steady 8 to 11 C. ... (discussion) We're being shown very disturbing charts on some of the weather models and all of them are pointing to at least lower end damaging wind potential, some have gusts into a range of 170 to 200 km/hr in exposed locations. This could produce severe damage. It needs to be stressed that weather models at this range (72-84 hours basically) are generally moderately reliable and seldom totally off on a tangent but in this particular case, they are working on a very fast-developing storm that has several moving parts but otherwise does not exist as a separate entity right now. A very strong jet stream will be in place. A wave is expected to form near Bermuda on the cold front of a low that is tracking north from Newfoundland towards west Greenland. And a wave of energy buried in the jet stream will be causing an unusual winter storm in the Gulf coast region of the U.S. today and tonight. When that energy catches up to the slow-moving wave feature ahead of it, all guidance shows explosive development, and the resultant deep low heads towards western Ireland. Some uncertainty remains because once models get better data from soundings today and early Wednesday, they may formulate a different track or intensity, almost any change would be better at this point to avoid a damaging windstorm scenario. We'll keep you posted and of course we realize that many readers will be consulting these model charts and discussions (and other forecast sources), so there won't be any shortage of updates and info ... keep in mind that colour coded warnings are only in the domain of the government weather service, we can comment on what we think will happen but unlike some on-line weather sources, we do not consider it appropriate to issue colour-coded warnings ourselves independently. I feel certain that if some of the guidance this morning is accurate, western counties would be under a red alert for this storm.
Beyond FRIDAY, further unsettled, sometimes windy over the weekend and all of the following week, a few intervals will be quite mild and between warm sectors it could be chilly enough for mixed wintry showers in higher parts of the west and north.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy and cold with highs around -4 C. It has turned unseasonably cold in the southern U.S. and snow is being reported in parts of Texas and Louisiana in what is locally the late overnight hours. A wider swath of snow is expected in places that only see snow once or twice a decade, including northern Florida. This storm will move out to sea late Tuesday night and will be near Bermuda by Wednesday, as explained above.

(there is little point in frequent updates on these developments because the guidance is not going to be considered totally reliable about storm intensity until Wednesday afternoon or evening given that the storm system won't even exist until Wednesday morning. Once we are closer to the onset, we'll go with more frequent updates. Hopefully the guidance will tone down and this will turn out to be more of a garden variety gale, but I wouldn't be planning around that).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 22 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT ... Major windstorm (named Éowyn) will arrive late Thursday night or early Friday morning on west coast, and all regions of Ireland will feel at least some impacts, west coast, parts of south coast, and midlands (later Ulster) could have "code red" alerts issued by national weather services based on current guidance. Note, we are not issuing code red alerts, just predicting they will be issued (if guidance does not change substantially by Thursday morning) ... Details in forecasts.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy and rather cold with a few scattered and occasionally wintry showers, highs 4 to 7 C.
TONIGHT becoming overcast, sleet or rain at times becoming heavier by morning. Lows 2 to 5 C.
THURSDAY partial clearing by late morning, moderate westerly winds backing to southerly and increasing by evening to near gale force, rain by late afternoon or evening. Highs 7 to 9 C.
THURSDAY NIGHT into FRIDAY ... storm Éowyn arrives, probably reaching peak intensity on west coast 0400-0600 hours, and by 0700-0900 hours on east coast. Rain and thunderstorms (some with hail and severe wind gusts) will precede the prolonged interval of strongest winds around midnight to 0200h, and 15-30 mm of rain is possible. Winds will increase to storm force in most areas before sunrise Friday, and guidance indicates extreme wind gusts possible in exposed coastal areas (120-180 km/hr is present estimate). Further inland, winds of 100-150 km/hr are indicated, and some guidance brings similar conditions all the way to Dublin. South coast will be only a little less extreme than west coast, some parts of the inland south may be locally sheltered by higher terrain depending on exposure to southwesterly winds. In general, there could be moderate to severe wind damage and people will no doubt be advised by local authorities to shelter in place and take precautions, avoiding travel during the intervals of strong winds. Numerous trees will probably be brought down and some damage to infrastructure is possible. Plan on possible lengthy electrical power cuts.
Major storm surge (1-3 meters) and battering wave damage is also quite possible especially near Galway Bay, but in all south and west facing coastal areas.
Temperatures will rise to near 12 C during the early stages of the storm and will slowly fall during the mid-day and afternoon hours of Friday to near 7 C. Winds will abate somewhat by afternoon but will remain very gusty (70-120 km/hr). Severe windstorm conditions will last longer in north Ulster.
In general, watch for updates here and elsewhere, there is always some chance of a last minute reprieve from this apparently near-inevitable outcome of a very high impact storm.
By SATURDAY, windy and quite cold, passing wintry showers on higher terrain in north and west, some sunny breaks too, temperatures steady 3 to 6 C.
SUNDAY dry at first, increasing southeast winds followed by a cold sleety rain that may be quite heavy, interfering with recovery efforts likely to be well underway. Temperatures steady near 4 C. Some higher areas could see sleet or wet snow, but it will be a cold rain closer to sea level. Winds could become quite strong again, into a range of 70 to 110 km/hr (there is some potential for even stronger winds in south coastal counties).
MONDAY this second storm will continue, with further rainfall and sleet on hills, temperatures 4 to 7 C.
The rest of next week will be unsettled also with further outbreaks of rain and occasional moderate westerly winds.

My local weather was cloudy with sunny breaks, and quite cold at -6 C. Snow is falling overnight on the Carolina coast after records were set in Louisiana, Alabama, and northwest Florida into s/c Georgia earlier -- New Orleans had 20 cm of snow and Mobile over 15 cm. The low pressure centre responsible has moved across Florida and is racing east-north-east from a position now south of Charleston, SC and west of Bermuda. Basically this is the birth of storm Éowyn

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 23 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT ... Major windstorm (named Éowyn) will arrive late today into early Friday morning on west coast, and all regions of Ireland will feel at least some impacts, and now have "code red" alerts (amber in the case of Northern Ireland) issued by national weather services based on latest guidance. ... Details in forecasts ... there is potential for widespread severe damage and disruption, in particular for west coast, midlands, and Ulster. We believe there is some potential for red alert conditions to be rather isolated in some parts of the south and east but this could change back to a more widespread outcome; our reasoning at present is that latest guidance is particularly intense on west coast and later into midlands and Ulster, and more moderately intense for south and east. However, as the storm is in an early stage of rapid development at around 43N 38W (as of 0600h), later guidance could shift back to a more widespread distribution of extreme conditions.

FORECASTS
TODAY outbreaks of rain and isolated thunder, 10 to 15 mm in some parts of Munster and south Leinster, followed by partial clearing with a few remnant clusters of showers by late morning into the afternoon hours, with moderate westerly winds backing by afternoon to southerly and increasing by evening to near gale force, rain resuming by late afternoon or evening. Highs 7 to 9 C.
TONIGHT into FRIDAY ... storm Éowyn will arrive, reaching peak intensity on west coast 0300-0600 hours, and by 0400-0700 in midlands and south coast, to 0700-0900 hours on east coast. Rain and thunderstorms (some with hail and severe wind gusts) will precede the prolonged interval of strongest winds, moving north from Munster into midlands and Connacht around midnight to 0200h, and 15-30 mm of rain is possible overnight. Winds will increase to storm force in most areas before sunrise Friday, extreme sustained wind and wind gusts possible in exposed coastal areas (130-190 km/hr is present estimate, locally 200 km/hr near Aran Islands and some parts of Connemara).
Further inland, winds of 100-160 km/hr are indicated, and some guidance brings similar conditions all the way to Dublin (peak gusts 130 km/hr). South coast will be only a little less extreme than west coast, some parts of the inland south may be locally sheltered by higher terrain depending on exposure to southwesterly winds. Our current estimate is that south coast will see local gusts to 130 km/hr and widespread inland gusts to 110 km/hr.
In general, there could be moderate to severe wind damage and people will no doubt be advised by local authorities to shelter in place and take precautions, avoiding travel during the intervals of strong winds. Numerous trees will probably be brought down and some damage to infrastructure is possible. Plan on possible lengthy electrical power cuts. Major storm surge (1-3 meters) and battering wave damage is also quite possible especially near Galway Bay, but in all south and west facing coastal areas.
Temperatures will rise rapidly to near 12 C during the early stages of the storm and will fall fairly steadily during the mid-day and afternoon hours of Friday to a range of 4 to 7 C. Winds will abate somewhat by afternoon but will remain very gusty (70-120 km/hr). Severe windstorm conditions will last longer in north Ulster as the low centre passes to their north on a track towards the northern Hebrides.
In general, watch for updates here and elsewhere, there is always some chance of a last minute downgrade from this apparently near-inevitable outcome of a very high impact storm.
By SATURDAY, windy and quite cold, passing wintry showers on higher terrain in north and west, some sunny breaks too, temperatures steady 3 to 6 C. Feeling like -2 C in exposed areas.
SUNDAY may be briefly dry at first, with increasing southeast winds of 70 to 110 km/hr, and a cold sleety rain that may be quite heavy, interfering with storm damage recovery efforts likely to be well underway. Temperatures steady near 4 C. Some higher areas could see sleet or wet snow, but it will be a cold rain closer to sea level.
MONDAY into TUESDAY this second storm will continue, with further rainfall and sleet on hills, temperatures 4 to 7 C. As low pressure loops around, winds will turn more northerly and eventually northwesterly 60 to 90 km/hr. It will feel raw and cold.
The rest of next week will be unsettled also with further outbreaks of rain and occasional moderate westerly winds. Temperatures will return to higher values 8 to 11 C at times.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and cold with a high around -5 C. It is clouding over in advance of a light snowfall expected all day Thursday to top up our now largely frozen-solid snowpack of 35-40 cm in town and 75-100 cm in the nearby ski areas (where it's less frozen and more powdery).
I will definitely issue an update around 4 to 5 p.m. today as the storm takes shape and approaches. There is still some time for the outlook to change in some details but I can't imagine the entire suite of guidance changing so much that there would be a storm cancel situation (would love to be wrong about that given the damage potential involved). Take this very seriously, especially if you live near the Atlantic coast or in the midlands, but in general this applies to all regions as things could shift around by storm onset time.

M.T. Cranium

Forecast Update _ 23 Jan 5:15 p.m.

Basically, all aspects of previous forecast on track and so no revisions to be made at this time. Storm centre is currently in rapid intensification stage near 50N 20W and latest guidance continues trends of bringing a very deep centre (935-940 mb) to a position about 200 miles west of Galway by 0300h and 100 miles north of Belmullet by 0600h, a track which will send core winds into large portions of the west and central (later northern) regions of the country. It still looks relatively moderate for regions in south and east but when I say "relatively" in this case I mean scattered or isolated wind damage rather than a widespread and significant potential for damage as we can unfortunately expect in the west and some central counties also.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 24 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Storm is now at peak intensity across many parts of Ireland and already easing slowly in the southwest. It will moderate slowly from the south across most other regions from now to mid-day. A rather unsettled and wet interval lies ahead and will make recovery (where necessary) from the storm a bit more difficult especially Sunday to Tuesday. Very mild and dry after a few more unsettled days, heading into early February.

FORECASTS
TODAY ... Very windy across central and later northern counties, peak winds westerly 100-150 km/hr in exposed coastal areas (after some higher gusts already reported), 80-130 km/hr inland.
Moderate to severe damage either already caused or about to happen in stormy areas of west and midlands, scattered portions of east and in Ulster, caution advised all day in driving as debris may still be on roads, and even moderate gusts could now bring down weakened trees, don't go by alert levels only as a long interval of recovery is probably going to be needed in some areas.
Occasional falls of rain and sleet, snow will return to higher elevations by mid-day. Temperatures already peaked during the night and will now settle in around 7 C for most areas, 4 or 5 C on higher terrain. Winds continuing to ease off during afternoon except in a few parts of north Ulster. Outbreaks of rain will become heavier inland south as a following wave crosses Munster this afternoon (no wind peak associated).
TONIGHT windy and cold, winds west-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, passing wintry showers. Lows -2 to +2 C.
SATURDAY windy and cold, passing wintry showers, followed by a more widespread afternoon outbreak of sleet or cold rain, winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr at times will add a chill to highs only around 4 or 5 C.
SUNDAY into MONDAY prolonged intervals of rain after a few dry hours early Sunday, winds increasing to southeast 60-90 km/hr, veering to south-southwest 70-110 km/hr at times, 30 to 50 mm rainfalls likely, some local flooding could develop. Temperatures fairly steady in a range of 7 to 9 C (4 to 6 C north and on higher terrain elsewhere).
TUESDAY windy and cold, sleet or wet snow in higher terrain, winds backing to northeast 50-80 km/hr, temperatures steady 2 to 5 C.
Several more passing disturbances during the rest of the week (and month), further cold rain and occasional strong winds but below alert or damaging levels mostly, highs 5 to 8 C.
A milder, dry interval will follow in early February.

My local weather looked cloudy and cold, I was inside all day (partly due to storm forecast and observations, partly because I have a nasty cold which seems to be going away thankfully).

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 25 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rather cold and unsettled with some outbreaks of heavier rain on Sunday-Monday, gradually drying and then turning milder in stages later next week into early February.

FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and chilly, with a few passing wintry showers, sleet or snow on hills; heavier showers will develop during the afternoon. Highs 4 to 7 C.
TONIGHT foggy or misty, some slight frosts and icy roads in north-central counties, lows -2 to +3 C.
SUNDAY rain will develop across the south and west early in the day and will spread to other regions during the afternoon, as winds increase to southeast 50-80 km/hr, stronger gusts near south coast. Feeling raw in the cold, damp conditions, highs 7 to 9 C.
MONDAY foggy with rain continuing, some heavy falls across the south and particularly the southwest (30-50 mm possible), local flooding as a result there; winds continuing quite strong at times, southwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
TUESDAY damp and chilly, winds backing to easterly and then north to northwest 40-70 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 8 C, some further rain or drizzle, sleet on some higher terrain.
WEDNESDAY breezy to windy and cool, occasional drizzle or wet snow on higher ground, lows near 1 C and highs near 5 C. Northerly winds 40 to 70 km/hr.
From THURSDAY on, a milder and drier interval will develop and some guidance suggests very mild temperatures will set in by the weekend of 1-2 Feb, reaching 13 or 14 C.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy to sunny, quite hazy, and the high was near -3 C.

A note of caution, over coming days many trees could be weakened after the very strong winds of the past two days and you could encounter fallen trees at any time or place without any obvious weather-related cause, so proceed with caution especially at night in rural areas.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 26 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rather cold and wet for several days, heavy rain in the south at times; gradually drying out later in the week and turning quite mild in early February.

FORECASTS
TODAY outbreaks of rain will become heavy at times in the south, 15-30 mm possible, local stream flooding in parts of west Munster. Winds across the south will increase to southerly 50-80 km/hr. Other regions not quite as windy or wet but fairly persistent light rain and moderate southeast winds. Highs 7 to 10 C.
TONIGHT rain continuing at times, foggy in many areas, winds continuing quite strong near south coast south-southwest 60 to 100 km/hr. Lows near 5 C.
MONDAY the rain will become showery and winds will ease as the core of low pressure moves across the country, forcing winds to back into the east and later north, across all but the southeastern counties. About 5-10 mm further rain will fall, temperatures will be in a range of 6 to 8 C.
TUESDAY windy and rather cold, drizzle or sleet on higher terrain, winds northwest 50-80 km/hr, lows near 3 C and highs near 6 C.
WEDNESDAY rain or drizzle continuing across the south at times, as winds become northeast 40-60 km/hr in most regions, a few brighter intervals in the north, cold. Lows near 2 C and highs near 5 C except a bit higher where sunshine develops.
THURSDAY cool with northerly breezes dying out, lows near -1 C and highs near 8 C.
FRIDAY and WEEKEND of 1-2 FEB will be milder and may become very mild in most areas, highs could reach 13 or 14 C.
It will stay mild for most of early February but rain will return to western regions and strong winds could also return, some signs of rather stormy weather so it will be helpful to get this dry and relatively calm slot from 30 Jan to about 3 Feb before that regime sets in.
My local weather on Saturday was sunny and cold with a high around -8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 27 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Rather cold and wet for several days, heavy rain in the south at times; gradually drying out later in the week and turning quite mild in early February.
FORECASTS
TODAY rain will become showery and winds will ease as the core of low pressure moves across the southern part of the country by afternoon, forcing winds to back into the east and later north, across all but the southeastern counties. About 5-10 mm further rain will fall, temperatures will be in a range of 6 to 8 C.
TONIGHT breezy and rather cold with occasional rain, winds becoming northerly 40 to 60 km/hr, lows near 3 C.
TUESDAY windy and rather cold, drizzle or sleet on higher terrain, winds northwest 50-80 km/hr, lows near 3 C and highs near 6 C.
WEDNESDAY rain or drizzle continuing across the south at times, as winds become northeast 40-60 km/hr in most regions, a few brighter intervals in the north, cold. Lows near 2 C and highs near 5 C except a bit higher where sunshine develops.
THURSDAY cool with northerly breezes dying out, lows near -1 C and highs near 8 C.
FRIDAY and WEEKEND of 1-2 FEB will be milder and may become very mild in most areas, highs near 10 C on Friday and could reach 13 or 14 C Saturday to Monday.
Windy with rain on TUESDAY 4th FEB, followed by another dry spell with somewhat lower temperatures and eventually colder in light east winds as high pressure crests over Scotland; highs will be around 6 to 9 C for a few days but will probably return to the milder range of 10-13 C by mid-February in a southerly flow.

My local weather on Sunday was again sunny and cold with a high around -8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 28 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Cool and showery today, some dry intervals to follow, and turning milder by weekend; gradually becoming more unsettled again during the following week, but no strong indications of any high-impact weather.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cool and showery, with prolonged outbreaks of rain in central Leinster and wet snow on higher ground in Wicklow developing for a time. Also some heavy showers could be moving through some parts of the west, a few central counties may be drier between these outbreaks. Winds northerly 40-60 km/hr, highs around 8 C.
TONIGHT partial clearing, cold, isolated frosts, lows -2 to +3 C.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to sunny for most, a few outbreaks of light rain in coastal north and west. Another area of rain off the south coast is now expected to stay out to sea but cloud from that system may overspread the south coast. Winds not as strong, still generally northerly, trending easterly near south coast. Highs around 5 to 7 C.
THURSDAY variable cloud, lows near -2 C and highs near 8 C.
FRIDAY partly cloudy, a bit milder, some scattered brief showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.
WEEKEND and MONDAY, rather mild, some guidance is backing away from the 12-14 C range (to 8-10 C) while other sources continue to promote it, reason for differences lies in how much of a continental feed develops in a south to southeast flow. Rain could be streaming north past the Atlantic coastal counties and while a lot of places could remain dry, it's too close to call whether rain will make much impact on land before Tuesday, when it seems more definite.
TUESDAY (4 Feb) is expected to bring a frontal system and rain with moderately strong south to southwest winds, highs near 12 C.
Further disturbances appear likely to follow with rain again around the 6th to 8th of February. There are thankfully no signals for really strong weather systems but even so, it will be near the lower end of the "yellow alert" wind or rainfall criteria at times.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy for the morning then sunny with highs near -4 C. More moderate air masses are now dominating the weather in central and eastern regions, cutting off the flow of extreme cold that was powering the jet stream last week.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 29 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Generally dry except for some light rain overnight in some northern and eastern counties. Rain will return to some western counties on Sunday, and a more general rainfall will arrive on Tuesday. Temperatures near average or slightly above.

FORECASTS

TODAY partly cloudy to sunny for most, a few outbreaks of light rain in coastal north and west. High cloud will spread into southern counties as a rain-producing system heads for south coast of England. Winds not as strong as recent days, and still generally northerly, trending easterly near south coast. Highs around 5 to 7 C.
TONIGHT will bring partly cloudy skies and isolated frosts, lows -2 to +3 C.
THURSDAY variable cloud, rain in northwest by late afternoon, and highs near 8 C.
FRIDAY partly cloudy, a bit milder, early rainfall in east Ulster and north Leinster clearing east, but a few scattered brief showers may follow, lows near 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C.
SATURDAY mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks, a bit milder in general, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.
SUNDAY rain will edge into western counties and will break up to brief showers in central counties later, east may remain dry, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, mild, lows near 4 C and highs 10 to 12 C.
TUESDAY (4 Feb) is expected to bring a frontal system and rain with moderately strong south to southwest winds, highs near 12 C.
Further disturbances appear likely to follow with rain again around the 6th to 8th of February. There are thankfully no signals for really strong weather systems but even so, it will be near the lower end of the "yellow alert" wind or rainfall criteria at times.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with increasing high cloud in the afternoon, highs near -3 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 30 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Variable with some dry intervals and some passing outbreaks of rain, temperatures relatively mild after a cold start today in some eastern counties. Milder towards end of next week.

FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy with increasing cloud by afternoon, highs 7 to 9 C.
TONIGHT some rain will cross most northern counties bringing 5 to 15 mm to much of Connacht and Ulster, north Leinster, 3 to 7 mm further south. Lows near 5 C.
FRIDAY rain will clear east by late morning and there may be some brighter intervals by afternoon, highs 8 to 10 C.
SATURDAY rather cloudy in most places, rain developing near south and west coasts, rather sporadic at first, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 11 C.
SUNDAY once again rain will move through mostly overnight and into Sunday morning, clearing gradually later, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.
MONDAY misty with rain or drizzle at times in western counties, becoming rather windy (southerly 40-60 km/hr), mild. Lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
TUESDAY rain at times, breezy, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY of next week are likely to be dry with cooler temperatures around 7 or 8 C.
Another breezy and mild interval is timed presently for Friday 7th into weekend of 8th-9th, some rain will accompany this; a bit cooler for a few days then a more disturbed interval of weather, potentially stormy in west and north as Atlantic gets fired up again. Too far out in time to speculate on details, hoping we'll see this shifting further north well before the reliable forecast range arrives.

My local weather on Wednesday was yet again sunny and rather cold at -3 C. Nights are bringing minima around -15 C and probably a lot colder in the alpine. We'll finally see some cloud and possibly snow by Friday and Saturday here.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 31 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Variable with some dry intervals and some passing outbreaks of rain, temperatures relatively mild to Tuesday, then a bit colder for a few days, returning to mild by the following week.

FORECASTS

TODAY partly cloudy and reasonably mild, highs 8 to 11 C.
TONIGHT misty or foggy in most places, a bit of drizzle near south coast, lows 2 to 5 C.
SATURDAY rather cloudy in most places, rain developing near south and west coasts, rather sporadic at first, with highs 8 to 11 C.
SUNDAY once again rain will move through mostly overnight and into Sunday morning, clearing gradually later, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.
MONDAY misty with rain or drizzle at times in western counties, becoming rather breezy (southerly 40-60 km/hr), mild. Lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
TUESDAY rain at times, breezy, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY of next week are likely to be dry with cooler temperatures around 6 to 8 C. Some cloud and some sunny intervals, slight frosts returning (lows -2 to +2 C). It will be colder in Britain as Scandinavian high pressure builds up.
It will gradually turn a bit milder by weekend of 8-9 Feb and another breezy and mild interval is timed presently for the week following, some rain will accompany this; a more disturbed interval of weather, potentially wet and windy in west and north as Atlantic gets fired up again. Too far out in time to speculate on details, hoping we'll see this shifting further north well before the reliable forecast range arrives.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a high near -2 C. We're expecting occasional snow for the next two days here.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 1 February, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Rather mild until Tuesday with outbreaks of rain tonight and again Monday night into Tuesday morning. Clearing and turning a bit colder later in the week, slight frosts at night.

FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and mild with southerly breezes, sometimes a bit gusty near west coast (50-80 km/hr there), less windy further east, highs 9 to 12 C. Some light rain at times by evening in west after a few sprinkles ahead of the steadier rain.
TONIGHT rain will gradually push further east, 5 to 10 mm is likely in most places, accompanied by fog and diminishing southwest winds, lows 5 to 8 C.
SUNDAY rain becoming showery by late morning, gradually turning brighter as fog begins to lift. Highs 8 to 11 C.
MONDAY variable cloud followed by light rain, mild, becoming rather breezy in western counties, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
TUESDAY outbreaks of rain, mild, moderate southwest winds veering westerly and clearing from west late in the day, lows 7 to 10 C and highs 9 to 12 C.
WEDNESDAY sunny intervals, a bit cooler, lows 3 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY some sunshine although low cloud may be rather widespread near east and south coasts at times, rather cool, as Ireland will be on the edge of a brief cold spell affecting France and Britain more directly. Lows will drop below freezing with some frosts returning, and highs 4 to 7 C.
Somewhat milder again with a few showers likely by weekend of 8 and 9 Feb, then temperatures will be variable for the following week, but will average near normal values for mid-February.

My local weather turned to heavy snow for much of the morning and we had 20 cm by lunch time, when it let up for the rest of the day, staying cloudy at -1 C. It was a light powdery fall that was quite easy to move. We're expecting another round of snow on Saturday and then a colder spell for about a week. Elsewhere, dense fog may have played some role in the crash of a small aircraft in Philadelphia shortly after it took off (it was a medical flight, very sad).