Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 2 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... sunny, dry for a couple more days, then rather cloudy with frequent showers. Overall, fairly average for time of year.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with a few clouds, moderate east winds at times near east coast, highs 15 to 17 C.
TONIGHT clear with a few clouds, lows 0 to 4 C.
THURSDAY sunny with increasing cloud, moderate southeasterly breezes. Highs 15 to 17 C.
FRIDAY cloudy with rain at times, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C. South to southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr.
SATURDAY mostly cloudy, showers, breezy. Lows 7-10 C and highs 15-17 C.
SUNDAY partly cloudy, showers and brighter spells, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.
Next week, little change from outlook discussed for several days. It will likely turn a little cooler in a northeast flow as remnants of Hurricane Kirk approach France and southern England. Ireland looks likely to be on the outer edge of the rain shield but there is potential for heavy rain and strong winds in parts of the southeast around Thursday 10th. A second, weaker tropical remnant will follow a similar evolution a few days later.

My local weather on Tuesday was mostly cloudy (a higher but quite dense cloud deck) with patches of blue sky remaining off to our south most of the day. It was around normal temperature for here of 15 C. An unusual prolonged summer heat wave continues over the southwestern U.S. setting daily records in a lot of places down that way. It's close to average in the east as they deal with the now weak remnant depression that was Helene last week.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 3 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... After a generally dry day, rather cloudy with frequent showers. Overall, fairly average for time of year but likely to be wet in southern counties.

FORECASTS

TODAY sunny with increasing cloud, moderate southeasterly breezes. Highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT cloudy, rain spreading into parts of south and west. Lows 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY cloudy with rain at times, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C. South to southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr.

SATURDAY mostly cloudy, showers, breezy. Lows 7-10 C and highs 15-17 C. Intervals of heavy rain across southern counties, 30-50 potential. Around 15-30 further north.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, showers and brighter spells, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY cloudy, rain, east winds setting in will cause temperatures to remain in a range of 11-14 C.

Next week, little change from outlook discussed for several days. It will likely turn a little cooler in a northeast flow as remnants of Hurricane Kirk approach France and southern England. Ireland looks likely to be on the outer edge of the rain shield but there is potential for heavy rain and strong winds in parts of the southeast around Thursday 10th. A second, weaker tropical remnant will follow a similar evolution a few days later.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast and cool with a high of around 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 4 October, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rather cloudy with frequent showers. Overall, fairly average for time of year but likely to be wet in southern counties. Risk of a significant rain and wind event around 10-11 Oct (remnants of Kirk)

FORECASTS

TODAY cloudy with rain at times, highs near 15 C. South to southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr.

TONIGHT cloudy, rain spreading into parts of south and west. Lows 9 to 12 C.

SATURDAY mostly cloudy, showers, breezy, and highs 15-17 C. Intervals of heavy rain across southern counties, 30-50 mm potential (50-70 mm on higher terrain in s.w.). Around 15-30 mm further north (20-40 Connemara).

SUNDAY partly cloudy, showers and brighter spells, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY cloudy, rain or showers, southeast winds, lows near 7 C and highs of 11-14 C.

TUESDAY partly cloudy, lows near 4 C and highs of 11-14 C.

WED-THURS (9-10 Oct) … Remnants of Kirk will be close to south coast, potential for strong n.e. winds and heavy rains (track could of course shift north or south).

Quite cool after potential storm passes (Friday 11- Saturday 12 Oct), near 10 C, but then more action from s.w. as another tropical system, Leslie, could be a factor as well as a re-energized jet stream.

My local weather started frosty and stayed sunny but cool (12 C). Kirk is a powerful cat-4 hurricane s.w. of Azores moving north. Leslie is a tropical storm following a similar path (so far).

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 5 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rather cloudy with frequent showers. Overall, fairly average for time of year but likely to be wet in southern counties. Risk of a significant rain and wind event around 10-11 Oct (remnants of Kirk)

FORECASTS

TODAY mostly cloudy, showers, breezy, and highs 15-17 C. Intervals of heavy rain across southern counties, 30-50 mm potential (50-70 mm on higher terrain in s.w.). Around 10-30 mm further north (30-45 mm Connemara).

TONIGHT cloudy, intervals of rain, foggy towards dawn, Lows 8 to 11 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, showers and brighter spells, and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY cloudy, rain or showers, southeast winds, lows near 7 C and highs of 11-14 C.

TUESDAY partly cloudy, lows near 4 C and highs of 11-14 C.

WED-THURS (9-10 Oct) … Remnants of Kirk (a strong extratropical low) will be south of the southeast coast, potential for strong n.e. winds and heavy rains (track could of course shift north or south). Guidance continues to bring Kirk in towards n. France and s.e. England with no indications of severe conditions for Ireland, but it will be quite windy and will be turning quite cold as the extratropical low pulls in a strong northerly flow.

Forecast … Windy and cool, occasional rain, northeast winds 60 to 90 km/hr, temps steady 8-10 C.

By FRIDAY partly cloudy, breezy, cold with passing showers, lows 3 to 6 C, highs 8 to 10 C.

SATURDAY (12 Oct) partly cloudy, showers isolated and less windy, lows -2 to +3 C, highs 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY (13 Oct) cloudy, rain at times, strong s.e. winds late in day persisting into next two days when heavier rain is likely as another tropical system, Leslie, could be a factor as well as a re-energized jet stream.

My local weather was cloudy and cool (10 C). Kirk is still a powerful cat-4 hurricane west of Azores moving northeast. Leslie now a cat-1 hurricane following a similar path (so far).

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 6 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rather cloudy, but a few brighter intervals too. A little more rain and turning quite chilly mid-week as Kirk sails past to the south and drags down colder air from arctic regions.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, with a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. One area of showers will move through Ulster and north Leinster this morning. Another will form over the southwest and move towards the midlands later. Highs 16 to 18 C. Brisk south to southwest winds at times (60-80 km/hr).
TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain near south coast spreading into south midlands and parts of western counties. Foggy at times elsewhere. Lows 7 to 9 C.
MONDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and sporadic outbreaks of showers moving towards northwest in a southeasterly flow. Highs around 14 C.
TUESDAY partly cloudy with isolated showers, cool, lows near 5 C and highs near 13 C.
WEDNESDAY becoming rather windy (northeast 40-70 km/hr), some patchy light rain or drizzle and also brief sunny spells, cool. Lows near 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C.
THURSDAY windy and quite cold, passing showers could be sleety on higher ground, winds north to northwest 40-70 km/hr, lows near 3 C and highs near 11 C. (could remain below 10 C in higher parts of Ulster and Connacht)
FRIDAY variable cloud, cool, isolated showers, breezy. Lows -2 to +3 and highs 7 to 11 C.
SATURDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, cool, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8 to 12 C.
SUNDAY (13th) variable cloud, a bit milder, lows near 4 C and highs 13 to 15 C.
Week of 14th to 18th looks a bit milder in general in more of a southwesterly flow, occasional rain. At the moment, remnants of Leslie (and Milton now active in Gulf of Mexico) are likely to die out entirely in central Atlantic giving what energy they may have left to faster moving jet stream disturbances. Highs during this period will probably be a little above average, 14 to 17 C.

My local weather on Saturday was pleasantly sunny and not as cool as previous days, high near 14 C.

Still keeping an eye on Kirk but each new set of forecasts seems to weaken this storm a little faster and now it's more likely to end up in northeast France and Belgium giving southeast England just a glancing blow on Wednesday. Leslie continues to trail well behind and is now expected to die off entirely before reaching Azores.
Milton has formed in the western Gulf of Mexico and is taking a dangerous course towards western Florida with potential to strengthen to a cat-3 hurricane. If so this would be very bad news for Tampa Bay and region. Milton is expected to cross Florida, continue on east, and weaken steadily. Its weak remnants will be quite close to Leslie's also weak remnant low just before both more or less disappear from the charts around middle of next week.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 7 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... turning cooler with temperatures set to average 1 to 3 deg below normal for the week. Occasional rain but generally not quite reaching the average values for a week in mid-October. Sunshine rather infrequent.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and some scattered showers or outbreaks of light rain, in southeast breezes sometimes rather brisk near south coast. Highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, a few outbreaks of light rain in the south, possibly heavier at times in Wexford and Waterford. Lows around 6 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with overcast skies near south coast, persistent light to moderate rain continuing there. Also areas of more frequent showers near Ulster's north coast. Winds light to moderate east to northeast, cool. Highs 12 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, moderate northeast winds at times 40-60 km/hr, passing showers, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy, a few showers in a moderate north to northwest wind, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 9 to 13 C.

FRIDAY partly cloudy, showers more isolated, cool. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 10 to 14 C.

SATURDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, isolated showers, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

SUNDAY increasing cloud, rain in south and west by late in day, milder. Lows 3 to 7 C and highs 12 to 17 C.

NEXT WEEK milder with occasional rain and moderate south to southwest winds at times. Highs generally in 13 to 18 C range.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny with a high near 14 C.

Kirk is slowly losing intensity as it moves past the Azores today, the low circling around this weekend and today to the west and later south of Ireland will steer Kirk's weaker remnant low into France on Wednesday. Leslie continues to follow along well back, and its remnants will merge with Milton's extratropical phase around Friday near Bermuda with that disturbance due into Ireland by about Monday 14th. Milton is slowly developing and is forecast to be a major hurricane for a time before hitting Florida's west coast on Wednesday.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 8 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... turning cooler with temperatures set to average 1 to 3 deg below normal for the week. Occasional rain but generally not quite reaching the average values for a week in mid-October. Sunshine rather infrequent.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy in southern and central counties, a few isolated showers; overcast with rain in parts of Connacht, and mostly cloudy with showers in Ulster and north Leinster; highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, a few showers, lows 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, moderate northeast winds at times 40-60 km/hr, passing showers, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy, a few showers in a moderate north to northwest wind, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 9 to 13 C.

FRIDAY partly cloudy, showers more isolated, cool. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 10 to 14 C.

SATURDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, isolated showers, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

SUNDAY increasing cloud, rain in south and west by late in day, milder. Lows 3 to 7 C and highs 12 to 17 C.

NEXT WEEK milder with occasional rain at first, and moderate south to southeast winds at times. Highs generally in 13 to 18 C range. Some indications of a dry interval after a day or two of wind and rain.

My local weather on Monday was sunny with a high near 18 C.

Kirk is now classified as extra-tropical, will give n.w. Spain a windy day and night before making landfall in western France and tracking towards Belgium by late Wednesday. Leslie continues to edge n.w. in the central Atlantic, and its remnants will merge with Milton's extratropical phase around Friday near Bermuda with that disturbance due into Ireland by about Monday 14th. Milton exploded into a cat-5 "buzzsaw" off the coast of Yucatan and is expected to hit Florida's west coast near Tampa Bay late Wednesday as a cat-3 or even cat-4.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 9 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rather cool for time of year with temperatures on average 1 to 3 deg below normal. Occasional rain but generally not reaching the average values for a week in mid-October. Sunshine now a little more frequent.

FORECASTS

TODAY partly cloudy to overcast, moderate northeast winds at times 40-60 km/hr, a few brief passing showers, more likely in east Ulster and north Leinster, and highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT clear with cloudy intervals, cold, lows 1 to 4 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy, a few showers in a moderate north to northwest wind, highs 9 to 13 C.

FRIDAY partly cloudy, showers more isolated, cool. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 10 to 14 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy intervals, isolated showers in south; overcast with intervals of rain by afternoon and evening in north, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

SUNDAY now looking dry as rain will hold off to at least Monday, partly cloudy and cool, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

MONDAY increasing cloud, rain in south and west by late in day, milder. Lows 3 to 7 C and highs 12 to 17 C.

NEXT WEEK variable conditions but milder with occasional rain and moderate south to southeast winds. Highs generally in 13 to 18 C range. After a day or two of wind and rain there are indications of a drier trend setting in except possibly near Atlantic coasts as fronts begin to edge in from west.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with patchy high cloud, and a warm high near 20 C.

Kirk is now extratropical and has brought strong winds to northwest Spain; it will soon make a landfall in western France, tracking towards Belgium, Luxembourg and western Germany. There will be some locally heavy rainfalls along that track. Leslie continues to edge northwest in the central Atlantic, and its remnants will merge with Milton's extratropical phase around Friday near Bermuda with that disturbance due into Ireland by about Monday 14th.

Milton has spent most of the past two days at or near cat-5 intensity and is now rapidly closing in on western Florida. Some weakening is expected on approach but its potentially catastrophic storm surge is probably unavoidable now whatever changes occur just before landfall. If it doesn't weaken below cat-4 there will also be some devastating wind damage, at cat-3 it will be a case of the surge doing most of the damage until these winds get further inland where they could still be at cat-1 intensity in east-central Florida. Landfall is expected around 0800h Thursday Irish time or 0300h in Eastern daylight time.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 10 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... rather cool and generally dry to mid-day Saturday, some rain in the north then, and in western counties later Sunday into Monday. A more general rainfall is expected to arrive from the south when it starts to turn a bit warmer towards Wednesday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with some fairly decent sunny intervals away from a cloudier northwestern region where a few showers are likely. Cool with highs 10 to 13 C.
TONIGHT partly cloudy to clear, frost likely inland. Lows -3 to +3 C.
FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny and continued rather cool, but light winds and the sunshine will make it a relatively pleasant day, highs 11 to 15 C.
SATURDAY increasing cloud followed by showers across most northern counties, more isolated in central regions with south coast possibly remaining dry. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
SUNDAY clearing during the early morning, sunny intervals followed by increasing cloud, rain moving into southwest and west by late afternoon. Lows near 5 C and highs 11 to 14 C.
MONDAY rain ending, turning hazy and warmer with lows near 8 C and highs 13 to 17 C.
TUESDAY hazy and mild, lows near 5 C and highs near 15 C.
WEDNESDAY overcast with light to moderate rain, southeast winds occasionally gusty and highs near 15 C.
The pattern beyond that looks unsettled and mild in general, which has become almost a default forecast for late October in recent years.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudier than recent days but still rather pleasant with a high near 14 C.

Hurricane Milton hit west-central Florida and surprised other parts of Florida with a potent outbreak of tornadoes that did damage on both sides of the state. The one good thing was a landfall far enough south of Tampa Bay to prevent a massive storm surge from hitting densely populated coastal areas there, but they still got hammered by strong east winds and torrential rainfalls. St Petersburg FL had over 450 mm of rain setting a new one-day all-time record. At this point, Milton is a hybrid system of cat-1 intensity undergoing first stages of extratropical transition just south of Orlando FL. It will soon be out in the Atlantic. Leslie meanwhile has had a brief flare-up to cat-2 intensity but will start to die out later today.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 11 October, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... rather cool and generally dry to mid-day Saturday, some rain in the north then, and in western counties later Sunday into Monday. A more general rainfall is expected to arrive from the south when it starts to turn a bit warmer towards Wednesday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny and continued rather cool, but light winds and the sunshine will make it a relatively pleasant day, highs 11 to 15 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to clear, frost likely inland. Lows -3 to +3 C.

SATURDAY increasing cloud followed by showers across most northern counties, more isolated at first in central regions with some parts of the south possibly remaining dry for the most part. Highs 12 to 15 C.

SUNDAY clearing during the early morning, sunny intervals in eastern counties at first, followed by increasing cloud, rain moving into southwest and west by afternoon. Lows near 5 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

MONDAY rain ending, turning hazy and warmer with lows near 8 C and highs 13 to 17 C.

TUESDAY hazy and mild, lows near 5 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY overcast with light to moderate rain, southeast winds occasionally gusty and highs near 15 C.

The pattern beyond that looks unsettled and mild in general.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny with a high near 15 C, and this evening we had a spectacular display of bright aurora borealis despite a half moon low in the south. It was rather cold but we managed to stay out for better part of an hour. This display extended much further south into the U.S. than usual, people reported seeing it around northern Virginia for example.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 12 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

FORECASTS

Today, a band of showers will push south generally weakening in intensity, but turning skies cloudy, with highs 14 to 16 C.

Slowly clearing overnight, lows 4 to 7 C.

Tomorrow will see increasing cloud followed by more rain overnight. Similar temps.

… on a road trip, will be back to forecasting in a few days (no fixed schedule). It's possible you'll see forecasts from

other folks for a few days.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 16 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... rather mild with frequent rain and occasional strong winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, rain at times in south and west, highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, mild, rain at times, lows 6 to 9 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy to overcast, a few showers, moderate south winds. Highs 13 to 16 C.

FRIDAY windy and mild, rain becoming heavy by afternoon and evening (15-25 mm potential), lows near 7 C and highs 14 to 18 C. Winds increasing to SSW 60-90 km per hr.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, breezy, passing showers, lows near 6 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

SUNDAY windy with intervals of rain, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY variable skies, a few showers, cooler, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

TUESDAY cloudy, breezy, showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY 23rd cloudy, rain, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

The pattern beyond that looks unsettled and mild in general.

My local weather (at the coast) was cloudy and mild, 16 C. Back to internet access on road trip and will soon be back at home base.

M.T. Cranium

T rsday, 17 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... rather mild with frequent rain and occasional strong winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY partly cloudy to overcast, a few showers, moderate south winds. Highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, mild, rain becoming heavy at times, lows 7 to 11 C.

FRIDAY windy and mild, rain becoming heavy by afternoon and evening (15-25 mm potential), lows near 7 C and highs 14 to 18 C. Winds increasing to SSW 60-90 km per hr (at least in exposed Atlantic and south coast areas).

SATURDAY partly cloudy, breezy, passing showers, lows near 6 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

SUNDAY windy with intervals of rain, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY variable skies, a few showers, cooler, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

TUESDAY cloudy, breezy, showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY cloudy, rain, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

Colder in stages for following two days (11 C, 8 C).

The pattern beyond that looks unsettled and mild in general.

My local weather (at the coast) was partly cloudy with a few showers, 16 C. Back to home base by Friday.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 18 October, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... rather mild with frequent rain and occasional strong winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY windy and mild, rain becoming heavy by afternoon and evening (15-25 mm potential), lows near 7 C and highs 14 to 18 C. Winds increasing to SSW 60-90 km/hr (at least in exposed Atlantic and south coast areas).

TONIGHT partial clearing, rain ending, moderate SW winds, lows 6 to 8 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, breezy, passing showers, and highs 11 to 14 C.

SUNDAY windy with intervals of rain (15-25 mm), lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C. Southwest winds 70 to 110 km/hr with strongest gusts in Atlantic coastal counties.

MONDAY variable skies, a few showers, cooler, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

TUESDAY cloudy, breezy, showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY cloudy, rain in western regions by later afternoon, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

Now looking only slightly cooler for a few days, highs near 12 or 13 C, as front weakens, still a bit of rain in mix.

The pattern beyond that appears to include some anticyclonic spells with a chance of frosts and persistent fog.

My local weather (driving back to home base) was partly cloudy and quite cold, near 2 C in higher elevations and 10 C in valleys, some evidence of a recent light snowfall above 1200 meters. Saw a few snowflakes from weak showers between sunny spells, not accumulating.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 19 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... rather mild with frequent rain and occasional strong winds, not as windy by later next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY partly cloudy to sunny, breezy, passing showers, and highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT becoming very windy as rain sweeps in from west (storm Ashley), squally showers and risk of a thunderstorm. Lows 7 to 10 C. Winds increasing to SSW 70-110 . Damaging swells and waves will develop on west and south facing coasts. Tides will also be elevated on east coast.

SUNDAY very windy with intervals of rain (totals 15-25 mm), further showers and thunderstorms, wind damage possible, especially in western, central and south coast counties; highs 14 to 16 C. Southwest winds 70 to 110 km/hr with stronger gusts (120-130 km/hr) in Atlantic coastal counties and possibly a few other locations.

MONDAY variable skies, a few showers, cooler, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C. A more moderate SW wind of 50 to 80 km/hr.

TUESDAY cloudy, breezy, showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY cloudy, rain in western regions by later afternoon, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY rain or showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

Only slightly cooler for a few days, highs near 11 to 13 C, as front weakens, still a bit of rain in mix.

The pattern beyond that appears to include some anticyclonic spells with a chance of frosts and persistent fog.

My local weather was overcast and cold with a sleety rain-snow mix, 3-5 C. A strong cold front ended a prolonged spell of near-record warmth in the s.w. states, temps dropped from 30s in recent days to near 15 C and NNW winds gusted to 110 km/hr in places like Las Vegas and Salt Lake City.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 20 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... rather mild with frequent rain and occasional strong winds, not as windy by later next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY very windy with intervals of rain (totals 5-15 mm), further showers and thunderstorms, wind damage possible, especially in western, central and south coast counties; highs 14 to 16 C. Southwest winds 70 to 110 km/hr with stronger gusts (120-130 km/hr) in Atlantic coastal counties and possibly a few other locations. Sunny intervals in central counties between fast-moving showers.

TONIGHT winds gradually diminishing to SW 40 to 70 km/hr, a little more rain in places, clear intervals across parts of south and east. Lows 5 to 7 C.

MONDAY variable skies, a few showers, cooler, and highs near 12 C. A more moderate SW wind of 50 to 80 km/hr.

TUESDAY cloudy, breezy, showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 14 C. Intervals of rain late in day across south, drizzle elsewhere.

WEDNESDAY cloudy, rain in western regions by later afternoon to overnight, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY rain or showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

Only slightly cooler for a few days, highs near 11 to 13 C, as front weakens, still a bit of rain in mix.

The pattern beyond that appears to include some anticyclonic spells with a chance of frosts and persistent fog.

My local weather was overcast and milder with a few raindrops and highs near 9 C. Near Cuba, Oscar became a small hurricane, seasonal count is now 15/10/4.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 21 October, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... rather mild, drier and not as windy.

FORECASTS

TODAY variable skies, a few showers, cooler, and highs near 12 C. A more moderate SW wind of 40 to 60 km/hr.

TONIGHT clear intervals, colder, lows 2 to 5 C.

TUESDAY partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY cloudy, rain in western regions by later afternoon to overnight, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY rain or showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY variable cloud, breezy, colder, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

WEEKEND rather cloudy with occasional light rain, breezy (windy in north by Sat night), highs near 12 C.

Staying mild for a few days, highs near 11 to 13 C, possibly colder late in month as northerly flow sets in.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy and mild, highs near 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 22 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Dry to later Wednesday, an interval of rain for about 24-36 hours then dry again with a little more rain during first part of the weekend, temperatures will average near or slightly above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with patchy drizzle in some northern counties. Rather mild in southwest breezes of 30-50 km/hr, highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT hazy with fog patches developing, lows 5 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY increasing cloud followed by outbreaks of rain in western counties by late in the day. Highs 14 to 16 C.

THURSDAY periods of rain, heavy at times, slow clearing trend across western then central counties. Potential for 15-30 mm of rain. Lows near 8 C and highs 13 to 15 C.

FRIDAY breezy and a little cooler, passing showers, blustery west to northwest winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.

SATURDAY variable cloud, a few showers followed by an interval of light rain, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.

SUNDAY occasional light rain, drizzle, fog or mist, mild, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

MONDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 3 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

Going into following week, high pressure building over central Europe may begin to deflect Atlantic fronts further north and this will lead to quiet, rather chilly weather with frost and fog at night, highs generally 8 to 10 C.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy to overcast with a few passing showers, high near 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 23 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... An interval of rain (heavy in parts of south and west) for about 24-36 hours overnight into Thursday, then dry again with a little more rain during first part of the weekend, temperatures will average near or slightly above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY increasing cloud followed by outbreaks of rain in western counties by late in the day. Highs 14 to 16 C.
TONIGHT rain becoming very heavy in west Munster and western Mayo, Connemara and west Galway, 30-70 mm including later falls during the day. Much less rain will fall elsewhere and some parts of east Ulster and north Leinster could remain dry. Lows near 7 C.
THURSDAY periods of rain, heavy at times in south and west, localized flooding (30-70 mm potential in total), slow clearing trend across western then central counties. Only about 5-15 mm of rain is expected in other parts of the country but it will be slower to clear there. Highs 13 to 15 C.
FRIDAY breezy and a little cooler, rain tapering to drizzle early in the day in parts of the south, otherwise a few passing showers, blustery west to northwest winds 40-60 km/hr developing. Lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.
SATURDAY variable cloud, a few showers followed by an interval of light rain, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.
SUNDAY occasional light rain, drizzle, fog or mist, mild, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.
MONDAY partly cloudy to overcast, continued mild, local patchy drizzle or mist, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.
Going into following week, high pressure building over central Europe may begin to deflect Atlantic fronts further north and this will lead to quiet, rather chilly weather with frost and fog at night, highs slowly falling back to a range of 8 to 10 C.

My local weather on Tuesday was misty with lovely views of fall colours as shafts of sunlight penetrated the gloom here and there with a very low cloud ceiling over the region, we were able to drive up into a foggy layer just above the town and then into bright sunshine above that. Temperatures close to 8 C but probably a lot colder in the higher elevations where a bit of snow is lying now (no sign of that in town yet). Leaf fall varies from 20% to 90% on differently exposed trees after a few days of gusty winds. The barest trees around are naturally across the road from my place and all those leaves are in our parking areas, so I got lots of exercise dealing with that.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 24 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... after some locally heavy rainfalls later today into early Friday, a rather bland and mild pattern with limited rainfall elsewhere.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks further east, light rain spreading into western counties, turning heavier at some point. Guidance is not quite unified on timing or amounts of rain to be expected, but the general theme is that heaviest rain will be near western coastlines and will not extend much further east than a Galway to Limerick to Cork axis. Amounts by later today or tonight could approach 40 mm in some areas of that zone, but will be much lighter in central and eastern counties (5-10 mm). Highs near 15 C. An interval of strong east winds is also likely near the south coast later today (70-90 km/hr).
TONIGHT will see heavy rain continuing in some western counties and light rain in the rest of the country, lows near 9 C.
FRIDAY the rain will become more showery and will clear away from northern and central counties fairly early in the day, by afternoon in southern counties. Highs 12 to 14 C.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY will both be fairly mild days with a little rain at times, moderate westerly breezes stronger in northern counties, and highs near 14 C.
MONDAY and TUESDAY will likely be dry with hazy autumnal sunshine after morning fog clears, highs near 15 C.
Later next week, stronger high pressure nearby could lead to longer morning fog conditions and even local frosts but daytime readings will stay fairly mild (10-12 C).

First look at winter 2024-25, I expect a rather mild and at times stormy pattern to develop, with brief colder and wintry episodes. The main feature of the winter could be its variability but also its stormy episodes causing some disruption and damage especially over western counties. A more detailed winter outlook was posted elsewhere in the discussion thread.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with cloudy intervals and a high near 8 C. We hiked into an alpine area for some exercise and found it was a bit colder with water in shaded areas still frozen from a sharp frost last night. We're getting clear skies and another sharp frost tonight. It's around -3 C outside at 11 p.m. local time. One other note, it still has not rained this month in NYC and the dry spell (now at 25 days) is tied tenth longest on record, on its way to second place within five days. The record was 36 days in the autumn of 1924. It will need to stay dry in NYC until 5-6 Nov to break that record. Other northeastern U.S. locations are closer to their all-time records or have already broken them. The driest October at NYC in the past was in 1963 (3.5 mm) and that was also one of the warmest Octobers. 1947 was similar. Winters following those two occasions were variable in nature.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 25 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... a little more rain on weekend, dry and mild but foggy at times next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see a slow clearing trend except where light rain lingers in parts of east Ulster and southwest Munster. Highs 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals, lows 5 to 8 C.
SATURDAY increasing cloud, rain in some northern counties by late afternoon or evening. Highs 13 to 15 C.
SUNDAY rain will be rather heavy at times in north, more showery further south, moderate westerly winds, lows near 7 C and highs 12 to 14 C.
MONDAY partly cloudy, isolated showers dying out, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.
TUESDAY and following days will be hazy and mild, some sun at times, despite patchy cloud, and during the spell, fog could become more of an issue later, with slow clearance in some inland counties by late morning hours. In general, a bit colder at night, lows in range of 2 to 6 C and frost will be possible in a few spots. Highs will remain in a range of 12 to 15 C for most places except in the fog-prone inland valleys where 9 to 11 C might be closer especially towards end of week.
This mild, dry spell is expected to break down gradually as Atlantic fronts return around Tuesday, 5 November.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with a few patches of blue sky, low cloud ceilings basically nearly level with our elevation so it had a "spooky" seasonal look and it was reasonably mild at around 9 C. NYC did have traces of rain but not a measurable amount so the dry month continues. June 1949 had only 0.5 mm at NYC and is currently the driest of all months, October 1963 had 3.5 mm and is the driest October.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 26 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … After some intervals of rain this weekend, dry and mild next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY increasing cloud this morning, rain will arrive in north by mid-day and will reach central counties by afternoon; highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT clearing, colder; lows 3 to 6 C (6 to 10 C near west, north coasts).

SUNDAY another interval of rain or showers, breezy (WSW 40-60 km/hr); highs near 13 C.

MONDAY variable cloud, isolated showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.

From TUESDAY on, mild and dry, some sun despite frequent cloud, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

This mild, dry spell could persist for about a week before Atlantic fronts begin to return.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy and cold, with highs near 7 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 27 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … After some intervals of rain later today, dry and mild next week. Foggy mornings will become frequent.

FORECASTS

TODAY an interval of rain or showers will develop by early afternoon, breezy (WSW 40-60 km/hr); highs near 13 C.

TONIGHT variable cloud, a few showers; lows 6 to 8 C.

MONDAY variable cloud, isolated showers, highs near 12 C.

From TUESDAY on, for several days, mild and dry, some sun despite frequent cloud, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 12 to 16 C. Fog will be widespread especially inland, from after midnight to mid-morning hours. Very light winds, except for the fog hazards, a very pleasant late October into early November spell. A bit of drizzle is possible near north coast.

This mild, dry spell could persist for about a week before Atlantic fronts begin to return (5-6 Nov).

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with highs near 8 C. A few raindrops but no accumulation.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 28 October, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... After a few brief showers today, hazy or foggy at times, quite mild for late October, temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal values. Largely dry until around 5-6 November.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start rather cloudy with a few light showers or patchy drizzle with mist on higher ground. A few sunny intervals will develop by afternoon. Highs 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT will become misty then foggy before dawn in many inland areas, partly cloudy skies above the fog. Lows 5 to 8 C.
TUESDAY hazy sun at times once the fog or low cloud lift. Mild, light winds, highs near 14 C.
WEDNESDAY to WEEKEND will continue similar under dominant high pressure. Fog could become quite dense in some areas as there will be very little wind gradient. In general, overnight lows in a range of 4 to 7 C, and highs 13 to 16 C (could remain closer to 10 C in a few inland and north coast locations under low cloud all day).
When the high does begin to break down, it will stay mild and dry in a southerly flow, with patchy drizzle beginning to become more frequent near coasts. A more active pattern may need at least ten days to develop.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a very low cloud deck scudding in from the southeast, and a few intervals of light rain but not very much accumulation, perhaps 2-3 mm. Highs were close to 10 C.
The eastern dry spell continues although it has cooled to near average values for late October after quite a warm week there.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 29 October, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Mild and dry, frequent fog overnight into morning hours. Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal. Some guidance suggests no measurable rain in eastern counties for next two weeks (small amounts of rain to return to western counties after this week).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, nearly calm and quite mild, highs around 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT hazy, becoming misty or foggy with some patches of dense fog inland. Lows 4 to 8 C.

From WEDNESDAY into early NOVEMBER (at least a week) the weather picture will be similar each day, some hazy sunshine appearing after morning mist and fog, and light winds to nearly calm conditions. Overnight lows 4 to 8 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

About a week from now, a light to moderate southerly flow will set in as high pressure finally drifts a little further east. It will stay very mild and nights will still be calm with fog in places. Temperatures will stay in a similar range. There is no really reliable guidance on how far into November this stagnant pattern could persist; if it manages to run through most of the month, some very dense and persistent fog is possible given the ever-decreasing sun angle to provide any source of removing the fog. Also it could rival previous years like 1994, 2011 and 2015 for being one of the warmest on record.

My local weather was rather similar, as we settle into a rather bland southerly flow pattern too, a bit of fog yielding to weak sun through cloud layers at times, and a high near 12 C. New York City's dry spell reached 29 days, now second longest on record after a 36-day interval in Oct-Nov 1924.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 30 October, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Mild and dry, frequent fog overnight into morning hours. Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal. Some guidance suggests only 2-5 mm measurable rain in eastern counties for next two weeks (5-10 mm of rain to return to western counties after this week).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, nearly calm and quite mild, highs around 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT hazy, becoming misty or foggy with some patches of dense fog inland. Lows 4 to 8 C.
From THURSDAY into early NOVEMBER (at least a week) the weather picture will be similar each day, some hazy sunshine appearing after morning mist and fog, and light winds to nearly calm conditions. Overnight lows 4 to 8 C and highs 13 to 16 C.
About a week from now, a light to moderate southerly flow will set in as high pressure finally drifts a little further east. It will stay very mild and nights will still be calm with fog in places. Temperatures will stay in a similar range. There has been a slight trend towards a faster breakdown of this spell, but really the differences are quite subtle and when it does break down the most likely replacement will be occasional wet spells as fronts move in from the west, but with no change in the elevated temperatures.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with cloudy intervals, and crisp with a high around 8 C. The light winds in recent days have allowed a bit of fall colour to persist, quite often the trees will be totally bare by late October in our climate. There's a very thin cover of snow on some local mountains, probably less than 2 cm, and it extends down to elevations just above the town (in shaded areas at least). New York City did see a technical end to their absolute dry spell at the Central Park observatory but apparently not at all regional weather stations so some are going to have a run into the 30-day range now. Even so, it's still going to be the driest October on records even where a bit of rain fell.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 31 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... mild and dry, almost calm for several more days, some mist and fog mostly inland south at first, possibly becoming more widespread over weekend. A gradual change to moderate southerly winds will bring rain closer to western coastal counties next week and some will likely fall there, but while damp from fog and drizzle at times, it will stay essentially dry for over a week in eastern counties.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with light winds, some patchy mist and drizzle, and highs 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT will be overcast and mild with fog patches mostly in the inland south. Lows 7 to 10 C.
FRIDAY will continue partly to mostly cloudy and mild, with patchy mist and drizzle, highs 13 to 15 C.
WEEKEND will likely become a bit brighter with somewhat longer intervals of hazy sunshine, but nights could also become more foggy in larger parts of the country as wind gradient slackens completely. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 13 to 16 C.
During next week, expect a slow increase in southerly winds sometimes becoming moderately strong especially near south and west coasts. The temperature regime will stay similar to this week. Rain will brush western coastlines at times and 3-5 mm could fall around mid-week but smaller amounts (mostly spotty drizzle) will reach eastern counties. Some places (including large portions of central Britain also) may see almost no measurable rainfall for the next two weeks or so.
Some recent guidance begins to show a faster breakdown to more active systems around two weeks from now. At this point any guidance beyond a week is not "high confidence" as longer time scales keep changing from one run to the next.

My local weather on Wednesday was solidly overcast but not overly cold at around 8 C. Eastern regions of N America are now getting back into very warm temperatures again, spreading in from the central states, where values above 27 C were setting records. The warmest days on record in early November were in 1950 (for example 29 C at NYC) and that seems unlikely to be broken but 27 or 28 C would tie records for October 31st. Those were set in 1946 and or 1961.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 1 November, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... mild and dry, almost calm for several more days, some mist and fog mostly inland south at first, possibly becoming more widespread over weekend. A gradual change to moderate southerly winds will bring rain closer to western coastal counties next week and some will likely fall there, but while damp from fog and drizzle at times, it will stay essentially dry for over a week in eastern counties.

FORECASTS
TODAY will continue partly to mostly cloudy and mild, with patchy mist and drizzle, highs 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT will be overcast and mild with fog patches mostly in the inland south. Lows 7 to 10 C.
WEEKEND will likely become a bit brighter with somewhat longer intervals of hazy sunshine, but nights could also become more foggy in larger parts of the country as wind gradient slackens completely. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 13 to 16 C.
During next week, expect a slow increase in southerly winds sometimes becoming moderately strong especially near south and west coasts. The temperature regime will stay similar to this week and it could become even milder, with highs 14 to 17 C by mid-week. Rain will brush western coastlines at times and 3-5 mm could fall around mid-week but smaller amounts (mostly spotty drizzle) will reach eastern counties. Some places (including large portions of central Britain also) may see almost no measurable rainfall for the next two weeks or so.
The trend in recent guidance has been to prolong the quiet spell of mild weather so really we have no reliable estimate of when it will actually transition to something more active but usually this sort of block lasts about ten days to two weeks.

My local weather on Thursday began with a brief interval of wet snow that quickly melted as it mixed with drizzle. Later it was just overcast but dry, and highs reached about 5 C. Record highs were widespread in central and eastern regions of N America. NYC tied their daily record high of 27 C. A long warm spell in southwestern regions has basically ended and trends are now somewhat below average through most of the western parts of N America.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 2 November, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... very mild with little or no measurable rain, albeit some areas damp from drizzle, mist and dew. Apparently one or two spots have been clearing to intervals of sun and this may become a bit more widespread in coming days too, but cloud will be persistent in general. Even warmer temperatures are possible during the coming week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brief brighter intervals, but some places will see intervals of mist and drizzle also. Highs 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT misty, mild, some fog patches, lows 7 to 10 C.
SUNDAY little change, cloudy and mild, highs 13 to 15 C.
DURING NEXT WEEK a somewhat stronger southeast to south breeze will import even warmer air allowing highs to creep up into a range of 14 to 17 C. Nights could also be unseasonably mild in a range of 8 to 12 C. There is some possibility of a brief interval of rain around Tuesday, even reaching some eastern counties, but amounts only 1-3 mm.
After next week and the weekend of 9-10 Nov, changes will be slow but in general a more active Atlantic-driven weather regime will likely return with somewhat more rain in the mix, temperatures likely to stay quite mild. About two weeks from now there could be a slight drop in temperatures to near mid-November average values of 8 to 11 C.

My local weather featured a steady wet snow that deposited about 4 to 7 cm that partially melted on contact with some surfaces. It was basically a sloppy mess and slush mixed with thick drifts of fallen leaves is the leftover along with a cold, dank mist and temperatures steady between 0 and 1 C all day. I'd rather have your mild spell.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 3 November, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... mild, largely dry except for dampness caused by mist, drizzle and some fog over hills. Cloudy with a few breaks in the coming days, and small amounts of rain possible around Tuesday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with mist and patchy drizzle, mild, highs 12 to 14 C.
TONIGHT will be overcast with mist and fog patches, lows 7 to 11 C.
MONDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, mild, highs 13 to 15 C.
TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with a few intervals of light rain in western and later northern counties (1-3 mm expected there). Lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C.
WEDNESDAY on into following weekend, and possibly a good part of following week, will continue mild and rather cloudy although with somewhat stronger winds there could be brighter spells in the mix, and temperatures could get even a bit warmer with highs of 15 to 17 C possible at times. It will fall back into lower teens eventually and there could be a period of reloading high pressure, getting towards a very low sun angle which makes one suspect possible inversion fog and locally chilly temperatures inland could become part of the scenario eventually, although coastal and southern counties are likely to stay mild anyway.

My local weather on Sunday saw a bit more snow added to the 3 to 5 cm on the ground and then it turned to drizzle and became quite foggy by afternoon and evening, temperatures steady near 1 C.