Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 4 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Very mild for a day or two, turning colder Friday or Friday night in wake of as-yet not "nailed down" Friday low (see forecasts) ... cool and dry for about a week from Saturday on. Very mild and breezy again by mid-December.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast leading to rain and strong southwest winds arriving this afternoon (west) or evening (east) and persisting to mid-afternoon Thursday. Highs 8 to 10 C north, 11 to 13 C south and central. Winds increasing to southwest 60-90 km/hr.
TONIGHT mild and breezy, some clearing at times after rain ends, lows near 10 C.
THURSDAY mild and breezy to windy, a further interval of rain likely by mid-day, as winds increase again to westerly 70-110 km/hr. Highs 10 to 13 C. Thursday night will turn a bit colder and winds will ease slowly.
FRIDAY we are still confronted with two options for low pressure, the majority of guidance remains clustered near south coast while two prominent models show a track closer to Connacht into north Leinster. A south coast track will mean a cold, sleety rain over Munster and south Leinster in strong northeast winds, variable cloud and dry further north, highs near 5 C. A track further north will bring in milder Atlantic air for several hours (late afternoon to evening) with rain across all regions, and strong southwest winds in Munster and south Leinster, highs 10 to 13 C. Which will prevail? I don't have a strong hunch about this but the northern track won't surprise me too much given how mild it has been and will be up until this arrives.
By Friday night, strong north to northwest winds in the wake of the low, passing sleety showers, lows 1 to 4 C.
SATURDAY will be windy and cool with passing showers, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 5 to 8 C, winds northwest 60-90 km/hr.
SUNDAY also rather windy with showers more isolated, cloudy with a few breaks, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.
MONDAY to WEDNESDAY the core of high pressure will drift closer to Ireland and possibly a little way beyond towards Britain (or it could stall just west of Ireland); skies will tend to clear at times allowing for colder nights, widespread fog that could be persistent inland keeping days very chilly in some places; coastal areas likely to clear to pleasant sunny conditions with light winds. Lows will be in a range of -4 to +2 C and highs -1 to +7 C depending on when or if any fog clears away.
The cold, settled spell may try to persist a few more days or it could give way fairly steadily to milder conditions in a moderate southwest flow. Eventually it seems very likely to become windy and very mild at times into the week beyond 15th of December.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast, a little foggy at times and quite cold at around -4 C. A new shot of very cold air is approaching the Great Lakes region and will bring heavy snow squalls there later today.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 5 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... After all the talk about a model consensus for a south coast track for Friday's low, the GFS model won out and now the consensus is for a north-central track. That means mild temperatures will generally continue through Friday before a much colder interval sets in, on strong northerly winds, Friday night. By Monday under strong high pressure, the winds will have eased to almost calm and that will continue through Tuesday. Later in the week, a slow warming trend will set in, as the Atlantic disturbances slowly find a way back into the weather picture. So, rather wet at times to mid-day Saturday then generally dry for almost a week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become rather windy again with squally showers developing, possibly a few thunderstorms in central counties. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr by mid-day veering west-northwest 60-100 km/hr by afternoon and early evening, highs 10 to 13 C.
TONIGHT winds easing somewhat and partial clearing with lows generally 2 to 5 C, local frost possible in north and east.
FRIDAY as low pressure tracks into Connacht and north Leinster, rain will spread quickly east and northeast, becoming a sleety mix on hills in Ulster, but with temperatures rising steadily back to around 10 to 12 C further south, the main concern will be strong winds developing late in the day. About 30-40 mm of rain in some northern counties, 10-20 mm generally across south and east.
FRIDAY NIGHT winds westerly 50-80 km/hr will veer sharply in the evening to north-northwest 70-120 km/hr, strongest around Donegal Bay. Local wind damage is possible in Donegal, Leitrim, Sligo, Mayo and some areas further inland once this strong NNW wind sets in. Driving rain will accompany the strong winds, turning to a wintry mix on hills. The effects will be felt around midnight to 0300h on the east coast, and will be less intense for parts of the south. Lows around 2 to 5 C.
SATURDAY the strong northwest winds will continue, in the range of 60 to 90 km/hr, with bands of sleety showers forming, some brighter intervals between these bands likely. Cold with highs near 5 or 6 C feeling close to -1 C in the wind.
SUNDAY will continue cold and rather breezy but the strong winds will abate and skies will begin to brighten as showers become very isolated. Lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.
MONDAY and TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny days with clear nights except for local fog and low cloud formations. Cold with lows -3 to +2 C and highs 4 to 7 C. Tuesday in particular could see some locally persistent fog and low cloud holding down daytime readings in the -1 to +2 C range.
By WEDNESDAY the high will be weakening and a slight southeast flow will probably keep the fog a little less widespread, a sharp frost is likely though, lows -5 to -2 C and highs 4 to 7 C.
Model guidance for what happens after that is diverging into several different possible scenarios, in general it is likely to become milder and rather cloudy with a risk of stronger winds returning, and some rain at times. But we will leave details until there's a reasonable chance of the forecasts panning out.

My local weather on Wednesday was dominated by a cloud layer with a ceiling just below our elevation, so it was quite misty all day locally, and a bit brighter down below in the snow-free valley, temperatures varied from -1 C in our cloudy setting to +4 C lower down. A strong cold front is approaching the east coast and will set off snow showers in New York and later Boston during the mid-day with quite cold temperatures returning there.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 6 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... A significant windstorm will develop tonight after locally heavy rainfalls today. It will stay quite windy all day Saturday and begin to ease off on Sunday. Monday to Wednesday will be cold and dry with light winds. A gradual warming trend will follow.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with rain arriving in the west this morning and spreading rapidly to all other regions by mid-day. Heaviest rainfalls will be 20-40 mm in parts of Connacht, north midlands, south Ulster and inland Leinster. About 10-20 mm will fall elsewhere. Some sleet will mix in over north Ulster hills where highs will be only 5-7 C late afternoon. All other regions will eventually see highs of 12 or 13 C. Winds moderate southerly at times, 50 to 80 km/hr, will tend to ease off late in the mild interval before a very strong cold front arrives this evening.
TONIGHT storm "Darragh" will unleash a sudden fury of northwest gale to storm force winds after some places fall off to nearly calm conditions in the "eye" of the storm. This will be more noticeable in northern counties. The northwesterly blast will be in the range of 100 to 140 km/hr near Atlantic coasts and will still pack a punch inland at 80 to 120 km/hr. Expect a very sudden onset of these stormy conditions around 8-9 p.m. on the west coast and 11 p.m. to midnight near Donegal Bay. By around 0300h the strongest winds will be over eastern coastal counties (northwest 70-120 km/hr). A driving rain is likely to accompany the stormy winds. Some local damage is quite likely in exposed locations. Temperatures will fall off very rapidly to 4-5 C.
The sudden onset of stormy conditions makes this a dangerous situation as people are more used to Atlantic storms that gradually ramp up and give some time to assess conditions, in this case, it will be a very fast transition from locally benign to dangerous conditions. Locally a "code red" alert is probably going to verify in some coastal areas. Some areas will be sheltered by higher ground to their immediate northwest. A few places along the east coast could also see local damage as this wind funnels through gaps in the terrain or downslopes off high ground in "lee waves." It will get very rough over the Irish Sea between 0300h and noon, and storm force winds will eventually reach north Wales and western England also.
SATURDAY the very strong winds will slowly moderate during the morning and then will ease more rapidly by afternoon eventually settling back to northwest 40-70 km/hr late in the day. Bands of squally showers with some hail and thunder, sleet on hills, will alternate with partly cloudy zones between bands. It will be very unpleasant outside even in the better of those two alternatives but you'll be glad to avoid the worse portion of this mixed bag altogether. Highs only 4 to 6 C, feeling closer to -2 C due to wind chill.
SUNDAY will be an improvement in terms of less windy conditions and only one or two isolated showers, temperatures will start off quite cold (2-3 C) and recover only slightly to 4-6 C.
MONDAY to WEDNESDAY strong high pressure will be nearby or overhead. Be aware of static electricity in some indoor spaces. Very light winds and overall clear skies but widespread fog could form especially Monday and Tuesday nights, with lows -4 to -1 C. Where persistent, this fog could become a daytime freezing fog, but coastal areas could have some pleasant sunny conditions and highs of 7 to 9 C.
Beyond that quiet spell, a return to variable and sometimes unsettled weather is likely, we'll worry about the details later once we're done with Darragh. Stay safe and avoid travel especially in western counties tonight and for the first part of Saturday.

My local weather continues in a sort of dead grey zone inside cloud banks but misty rather than foggy, with temperatures stuck around -2 C despite warmer air over top of this cloud layer.

(may post an update around 7-9 p.m. either to confirm storm details or introduce any changes)

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 7 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Very strong winds will gradually ease through the day, with some persistent bands of sleety rain, and Sunday will be breezy but not windy, allowing for easier outdoor conditions for recovery from the damage of the overnight storm. A cool to cold and essentially calm interval will follow for several days, with widespread frosts and some persistent freezing fog possible. A gradual warming trend will set in after Wednesday but a quiet weather regime could persist for a while before eventually it becomes more unsettled again.

FORECASTS

TODAY will remain very windy most of the morning into early afternoon before a bit of improvement sets in, and it will be quite unpleasant outside in some areas due to bands of persistent and sometimes heavy rain (sleet on some hills), winds northwest still in the 70-100 km/hr range, easing to 40-70 km/hr late in the day, highs 4 to 7 C, feeling like -2 to +2 C.
TONIGHT winds will continue to ease slowly, and bands of sleety rain will also become less widespread, reduced to isolated showers near Atlantic and northern coasts after midnight, cold with lows around 2 to 4 C.
SUNDAY partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers mostly near coasts or over hills in north and west, winds northerly 30-50 km/hr, highs 4 to 7 C.
MONDAY cloudy with sunny intervals more frequent further north, isolated showers near east coast and over southeast, but most places dry, cold, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 3 to 7 C.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be calm and in some places foggy for long intervals, freezing fog inland in some areas, lows -5 to -2 C and highs 1 to 6 C.
After that, a gradual moderation of temperatures but it may remain fairly dry with cloudy skies sometimes allowing brighter intervals, and brief, rather spotty showers tending to drift slowly before dying off, lows generally around -2 C and highs around 7 to 10 C.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with a hoar frost quite heavy on trees on the higher hilly parts of town, odd little flurries of snow grains lasting a minute or two, and highs near zero C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 8 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... A dry and relatively calm week ahead, with widespread frosts returning, and some inland areas coping with persistent fog but sunshine will be more prevalent in coastal regions. A slight warming trend will set in by Friday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy at times but not anywhere near the persistent windy conditions of yesterday, with a northerly breeze of 30-50 km/hr sometimes a bit stronger near coasts. Partly cloudy to sunny skies, except for a few isolated showers in parts of Ulster. Highs around 5 to 7 C.
TONIGHT clear with a bit of frost and fog likely, lows -2 to +2 C.
MONDAY any fog will likely not persist too long and many areas will have sunny skies with a few clouds. Highs 4 to 7 C.
TUESDAY to THURSDAY as high pressure settles in over Ireland, more persistent fog is quite likely inland, with sharp frosts and some instances of freezing fog developing. Lows each day in a range of -4 to +2 C and highs under fog or low cloud -2 to +2 C, but where sunny (mostly around coastal districts) 5 to 8 C. It could be a bit more temperate in west Munster, highs 7 to 10 C.
By FRIDAY a weak disturbance pushing in from the southwest could bring a sleety light rain with wet snow at times on hills, lows near -1 C and highs 5 to 9 C.
A gradual warming trend will follow as stronger westerly winds return, and at times it could be quite windy; rainfall will remain rather infrequent despite that change in regime, as high pressure will still be anchored off to the south and any storm track will push well to the north. We're getting our first views of the Christmas holiday weather and (with the usual reduced confidence at time range of two weeks or more) it looks quite mild and breezy so far.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with a freezing drizzle requiring a scrape in the morning, a light flaky snowfall of 2-3 cm during the afternoon, highs near -3 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 9 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... cold and dry with scattered frosts and persistent fog in some inland regions, slowly moderating temperatures later in the week and into the following week as a gradual return to variable Atlantic-driven weather sets in.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy in the southeast, holding temperatures around current levels of 4 to 6 C,. More sunshine is likely further west and north, allowing a slow rise to similar highs, 4 to 7 C. Very light east to northeast winds or calm in some valleys.
TONIGHT will be clear with some cloud lingering in east, frost and some fog patches likely inland north and west. Lows -3 to +3 C, mildest near east coast.
TUESDAY to THURSDAY, little change in the calm, rather cold wintry weather, sunshine will try to break through low cloud and some persistent fog and will have its best success around coastal regions especially southwest, where highs could be 6 to 9 C. Under more persistent cloud, highs 4 to 7 C. Nights will generally be frosty except near some coasts, lows -4 to +2 C. Some persistent fog is likely and it will creep closer to the inland southeast later in the interval.
FRIDAY into weekend of 14-15 DEC ... guidance is beginning to pick up a signal for a prolonged quiet spell as the current high merges with another one further west in the Atlantic. At the same time, I don't entirely trust this idea and will not be too surprised if the guidance begins to show more active weather patterns returning faster, since there's quite a strong energy peak available around mid-month.
Eventually it seems more likely than not, for milder weather to return and perhaps dominate most of late December; also would not be surprised to find signs in a week or so, of stormy conditions towards end of month but guidance is not extending out that far yet anyway.

My local weather on Sunday started off with a light snowfall that produced about 5 cm of powdery snow, followed by dry cloudy and calm conditions with highs near -2 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 10 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS .. Dry and cool (east, south) or cold (west, north) for several days, cloudy over some eastern counties, clear skies above fog banks or low cloud that follows the fog elsewhere. Dry until next week and even then not a lot of rain for this time of year.

FORECASTS
TODAY stubborn cloud may begin to break slightly at times in Leinster and east Munster but not everywhere, and highs will be around 7 C. Some sunny breaks further west and north, especially around coastal districts which will have by far the most pleasant conditions. Inland, some frost and fog will linger either to late morning or all day, and highs could be held down in a few places to -1 to +3 C.
TONIGHT clear intervals, partly cloudy to overcast in east and parts of south, local frost and fog. Lows 2 to 5 C under cloud, -4 to -1 C elsewhere. Some freezing fog could give difficult driving conditions by later tonight.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will see little change to this pattern except that the eastern cloud will probably be less of a contrast to more widespread partly cloudy skies. Some frost and fog each morning will linger inland. Temperatures very similar to today's forecast and tonight's outlook.
By FRIDAY a slight warming trend will commence as a southeast breeze sets in, turning southwesterly in Atlantic coastal counties. Skies will be partly cloudy to overcast for most places but some sun could break through. Lows -2 to +4 C and highs 6 to 10 C.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK is for breezy and somewhat milder conditions as a weak to moderate westerly gradient sets in, strongest in Ulster and north Connacht. Some drizzle in north, generally dry or brief showers further south. Lows 3 to 6 C and highs 8 to 11 C.
Next week still looks bland on guidance, but expecting a bit more vigour in the regime eventually as we get closer to the Christmas-New Years holiday period. Temperatures will be slightly above average a lot of the time.

My local weather was cloudy in town but sunny above the cloud layer once we drove past the nearby ski hill. Some more pictures are attached to today's IWO facebook post (from a moving vehicle but still, gives you an idea what sort of winter we have around here).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 11 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rather cloudy and cold to the weekend, slowly turning milder then, and staying quite mild most of next week.

FORECASTS
TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals in west and north, patchy mist or fog in a few parts of the inland northwest. Rather cold but light winds, highs 4 to 7 C.
TONIGHT will remain mostly cloudy with a few clear spots in the inland northwest developing frost and fog. Lows under cloud 2 to 4 C and in a few places as cold as -3 C.
THURSDAY will be just about the same as today with widespread cloud, patchy frost and fog in northwest, highs 5 to 8 C.
FRIDAY will also be similar, if perhaps a degree or two milder by afternoon, lows near 2 C and highs 7 to 9 C. One or two isolated showers could drift into northern counties from a weak frontal boundary between the current high and a second one further west.
SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers in the north, little measurable rainfall expected from them. Lows near 3 C and highs near 10 C.
SUNDAY mild and breezy, winds westerly 40-60 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.
Next week winds will gradually turn southerly and it will be quite mild as a result, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C. It will likely remain dry to about Wednesday then some light rain may arrive from a distant low tracking north towards Iceland. This low is expected to weaken and its remnants will be pushed east before somewhat colder air returns later next week, dropping temperatures to around 7 or 8 C. The Christmas holiday period still looks relatively mild and turning more unsettled.

My local weather was foggy as that valley cloud I discussed yesterday got thicker and it took a longer drive to escape it, so I'm told (I stayed home). The peaks were still in sunshine over a thick cloud layer. It was cold and damp in the freezing fog (-3 C).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 12 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Cool and dry at first, turning milder over the weekend and staying mild for the first half of next week. Turning slightly cooler again before a variable spell near Christmas. Rainfall infrequent but some likely towards end of mild spell next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few light showers near some coasts, isolated sunny breaks possible too. Highs 5 to 9 C.
TONIGHT will be cloudy with drizzle and mist in places, lows generally 2 to 5 C, could fall to -2 C in any clear spots.
FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with isolated light showers, somewhat heavier in Ulster. Highs 6 to 10 C.
SATURDAY will be breezy, partly cloudy to overcast, with a few intervals of drizzle or light rain but little accumulation. Lows 3 to 6 C and highs 7 to 11 C.
SUNDAY and MONDAY breezy and mild, misty at times, lows near 6 C and highs 11 to 13 C.
TUESDAY increasing cloud followed by rain late in the day or overnight, mild, moderate to strong south winds developing in western counties, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.
WEDNESDAY intervals of rain, mild, breezy, lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY of next week (19th-20th) are likely to bring a brief cooler interval on northwest to north winds, but temperatures will likely only fall a few degrees, highs will be 6 to 9 near seasonal averages.
From weekend of 21st-22nd to end of December, I would expect a generally mild southwesterly flow sometimes quite unsettled and windy, temperatures rather variable as colder sectors get embedded between low pressure and frontal systems. It's likely to average about 10 C in the daytime and 3-5 C at night in this pattern. I would not be surprised if there's another significant storm around the end of the month.

My local weather on Wednesday was hazy but we could finally see the higher cloud layers and the peaks of local mountains although it was rather misty and visibility was about 5 kms at best. It felt milder as temperatures edged up to near +2 C, and a slight thaw began. On the east coast, meanwhile, New York and Boston had a very mild and wet day (highs near 17 C) but a cold front is going to bring them down to near 5 C on Thursday with leftover showers or wet flurries. The Great Lakes are into another round of heavy lake effect snow squalls in west to northwest winds.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 13 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Cool and dry at first, turning milder over the weekend and staying mild for the first half of next week. Turning slightly cooler again before a variable spell near Christmas. Rainfall infrequent but some likely towards end of mild spell next week, and it could be briefly heavy then.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with isolated light showers, somewhat heavier in Ulster. Highs 6 to 10 C.
TONIGHT mostly cloudy, misty, lows 3 to 5 C.
SATURDAY will be breezy, partly cloudy to overcast, with a few intervals of drizzle or light rain but little accumulation, highs from 7 to 11 C, mildest south and west.
SUNDAY and MONDAY breezy and mild, misty at times, lows near 6 C and highs 11 to 13 C.
TUESDAY increasing cloud followed by rain late in the day or overnight, mild, moderate to strong south winds developing in western counties, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.
WEDNESDAY intervals of rain, mild, breezy, lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C. Some heavy rainfalls are possible, 20 to 40 mm is expected.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY of next week (19th-20th) are likely to bring a brief cooler interval on northwest to north winds, but temperatures will likely only fall a few degrees, highs will be 6 to 9 near seasonal averages. A few showers will fall in parts of the west and north.
The following week will be variable but generally milder than average, the best bet for Christmas Day at the present time is for a breezy and mild day with a frontal passage bringing some showers, and Santa bringing some presents. Highs 10 to 13 C.
My local weather on Thursday was a return to the gloom of valley cloud based at our elevation so it appeared foggy until one dropped down into the valley and could see the cloud base overhead. Highs were near -2 C. Everything is frozen solid here including the snow pack to some extent.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 14 December, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Milder over the weekend and staying mild for the first half of next week. Turning slightly cooler again before a variable spell near Christmas including some very mild days again. Rainfall infrequent to Tuesday, but some likely towards end of current mild spell next week, and it could be briefly heavy then.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy, mostly cloudy or overcast, with a few intervals of drizzle or light rain most frequent in Connacht and Ulster, but little accumulation, highs from 7 to 11 C, mildest south and west.
TONIGHT mostly cloudy, occasional drizzle in north, mild. Lows near 5 C north, 7 or 8 C southwest.
SUNDAY and MONDAY breezy and mild, misty at times, lows 6 to 10 C and highs 11 to 13 C. Winds west-southwest 40-60 km/hr backing later Monday to southerly.
TUESDAY increasing cloud followed by rain late in the day or overnight, mild, moderate to strong south winds developing in western counties, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.
WEDNESDAY intervals of rain, mild, breezy, lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C. Some heavy rainfalls are possible, 20 to 40 mm is expected in Atlantic coastal counties, 10 to 20 mm further east. Risk of an interval of strong winds late Wednesday into early Thursday, at this point, does not look severe (but potentially this could upgrade).
THURSDAY and FRIDAY of next week (19th-20th) are likely to bring a brief cooler interval on northwest to north winds, but temperatures will likely only fall a few degrees, highs will be 6 to 9 near seasonal averages. A few showers will fall in parts of the west and north.
The following week will be variable but generally milder than average, especially after the weekend of 21st-22nd, and the best bet for Christmas Day at the present time is for a breezy and mild day with a few showers or intervals of drizzle, and Santa bringing some presents, but no snow. Highs 10 to 13 C. Very mild through to around New Years, still watching closely for storm potential around last two days of the month and year.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with a few intervals of light snow or drizzle, highs near -1 C. A steady powdery snow is falling this evening local time, expecting 7-10 cm by morning.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 15 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... mild and generally dry at first, intervals of rain by Tuesday becoming heavier on Wednesday, a period of strong winds followed by colder temperatures lasting a couple of days, with a slow return to milder conditions next weekend and into the Christmas holiday week.

FORECASTS
TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, a few spotty showers feeding in on westerly breezes 40-60 km/hr, but some places will remain dry, at most 1 or 2 mm of rain in some western and northern counties. Highs 11 to 13 C.
TONIGHT breezy and very mild, lows 8 to 11 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, very mild, highs 12 to 14 C.
TUESDAY increasing cloud, rain spreading in from southwest, 5 to 15 mm likely by end of day, highs 10 to 12 C.
WEDNESDAY rain tapering to showers after some heavy downpours, strong westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr developing, risk of stronger gusts in coastal districts, turning colder late in the day. Lows 9 to 11 C, highs 11 to 13 C, temperatures falling to around 7 C by afternoon in west.
THURSDAY breezy to windy, rather cold, passing showers of rain or hail. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 6 to 8 C. Winds northwest 50 to 70 km/hr.
FRIDAY sunny intervals, cool, lows -2 to +2 C, highs near 7 C.
Guidance is a bit divided on how fast the milder westerly flow returns, with some suggestions of the weekend of 21st-22nd possibly staying cool, but all agree it will be mild again by about Christmas eve and warmth will peak around 27th to 29th December with an energy peak near end of month being a concern for another significant windstorm event (too early to speculate on details, just watching guidance for clues at this early stage).

My local weather on Saturday began with the expected 8 cm of snow on the ground but it turned a bit milder in the afternoon (around 2 C) so the new snow cover is soft and a bit slushy in town, good ski conditions in the alpine however (where temperatures stay a bit colder too). It has turned quite cold in the eastern U.S. but with no snow on the ground away from lake effect and higher elevation zones. A winter storm is being monitored for around the weekend of 21st-22nd, so far it looks like being a moderate snowfall for many and heavier snow in Atlantic Canada.peratures stay a bit colder too). It has turned quite cold in the eastern U.S. but with no snow on the ground away from lake effect and higher elevation zones. A winter storm is being monitored for around the weekend of 21st-22nd, so far it looks like being a moderate snowfall for many and heavier snow in Atlantic Canada.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 16 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Mild until early Wednesday, with significant amounts of rain returning tomorrow, then colder for a couple of days before gradually turning mild again.
FORECASTS
TODAY ... variable cloud, breezy, very mild, highs 12 to 14 C. A few isolated showers or patches of drizzle but generally dry.
TONIGHT ... continued very mild, misty with occasional light rain in parts of south and west, breezy, lows near 10 C.
TUESDAY increasing cloud, rain spreading in from southwest, 5 to 15 mm likely by end of day, highs 10 to 12 C.
WEDNESDAY rain tapering to showers after some heavy downpours, strong westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr developing, risk of stronger gusts in coastal districts, turning colder in stages during the day. Lows 9 to 11 C, highs 11 to 13 C around sunrise then temperatures falling to around 5 to 8 C by afternoon.
THURSDAY breezy to windy, rather cold, passing showers of rain or hail. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 6 to 8 C. Winds northwest 50 to 70 km/hr.
FRIDAY sunny intervals, cool, lows -2 to +2 C, highs near 7 C.
WEEKEND of 21-22 DEC will see milder air returning on strong westerly winds (could reach 70-110 km/hr at times), some rain at times heavier in north. Highs 10 to 12 C.
The following week through Christmas Day (Wed 25th) towards New Years eve (Tues 31st) will be mild and possibly near-record warm at times, with potential for temperatures as high as 14 or 15, Santa may not need his usual warm attire.
My local weather on Sunday was quite cloudy with a bit of sun getting through at times, cloud ceiling was very low and we could not even see the tops of lowest hills near the town let alone the higher peaks beyond them. It was around 1 or 2 C so a bit slushy.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 17 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Mild and wet today, turning colder in stages tomorrow, quite cold on Thursday ... variable and windy at times Friday to Sunday ... very mild next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with rain, some heavier showers likely in south and west, 15-25 mm potential. Highs 11 to 13 C. Foggy over hills especially inland north. Moderate southerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr.
TONIGHT windy and mild, rain becoming showery, temperatures steady 8 to 10 C. Winds south-southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.
WEDNESDAY windy and gradually turning colder, more noticeable in parts of the north, as temperatures start out near 8 C in most regions and slide down towards 4-6 C later on. Winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. An interval of cold, sleety rain could skim past the southern coastal counties during the mid-day period.
THURSDAY windy and cold, passing wintry showers, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 6 to 9 C. Winds northwest backing to westerly 40 to 70 km/hr.
FRIDAY turning a bit milder, occasional light rain but also some brighter intervals, lows near 3 C and highs near 10 C.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY will be windy and temperatures will be steady in the 7 to 10 C range for most, 5 to 7 C further north. Winds occasionally quite strong westerly 70-110 km/hr. Some patchy light rain or drizzle at times.
From MONDAY (23rd) on towards New Years Eve, very mild and often dry but some rain could brush western and northern coastal districts at times. Highs into near-record 12 to 15 C range and very mild nights too. More of an anticyclonic influence is possible towards end of the month which could lower overnight temperatures a little. Still assessing storm potential for around the 30th to 1st of January period.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with a few snow grains and temperatures near -3 C. Milder air is moving in gradually which will probably mean a lot of fog at our elevation.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 18 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Windy at times, rather cold with a slight rise in temperatures Saturday, a more substantial warming trend from Monday on, and increasingly settled weather into the Christmas holiday week as high pressure builds from the south -- it could lead to some foggy nights inland after Christmas Day as winds become increasingly slack. It will stay quite mild, especially near coasts.

FORECASTS
TODAY will be breezy across northern regions, northwest 40-60 km/hr and a few outbreaks of light rain mixed with brighter spells. Across the south, a weak disturbance offshore will spread some light rain into Kerry, Cork, Waterford, Carlow and Wexford, but it will not be too persistent before tapering to drizzle. Highs generally around 8 C once temperatures fall off a bit further in the southeast.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast and quite windy, cold with passing showers, a few could produce hail and thunder. Lows near 4 C. Winds northwest 50-70 km/hr.
THURSDAY will start out cold and windy with passing showers as the northwest winds back into a west-southwest direction. This will give a slightly milder feel to the afternoon especially in western and south coast counties. Highs 7 to 9 C.
FRIDAY will be breezy and partly cloudy to overcast, with a few scattered outbreaks of light rain, and lows near 3 C, highs 8 to 10 C.
SATURDAY will become quite windy again, temperatures steady across the southern and central counties in a range of 10 to 12 C, and falling off to 5 to 8 C in the north. Winds west-northwest at about 70-110 km/hr. Blustery or squally showers will come and go, alternating with brief sunny intervals.
SUNDAY continued quite windy and turning a bit cooler (6 to 9 C) in the south while staying in the 5 to 8 C range in the north. A few showers and brighter spells. Winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr.
MONDAY will become milder with some sun at times, showers if any confined to coastal west and northern counties inland. Lows near 4 C and highs 10 to 13 C.
TUESDAY (24th) will be very mild, some hazy sun at times, lows near 5 C and highs 11 to 14 C.
CHRISTMAS DAY will also be hazy and very mild, highs could reach 13 or 14 C in places.
ST STEPHEN's DAY will continue on quite mild, but as high pressure begins to build up over the south, morning fog could be persistent in a few places, holding temperatures down a few degrees; near coasts it will stay around 12 C.
The rest of the week between then and New Years will be dominated by the higher pressure, so mild and sometimes hazy sunshine breaking through variable cloud near coasts, foggy at times inland, highs in a range of 7 to 11 C. Nights will become a bit colder as a result of the slack winds and some patchy clearing before fog develops. There have been indications of a stormy interval at New Years but this comes and goes on model runs, however, the anticyclonic spell will probably break down around the 30th or 31st.

My local weather on Tuesday has been overcast with another snowfall becoming quite heavy this evening, looks like 10 cm down in the past few hours, and near -2 C. Skiers are ecstatic but I can take it or leave it at this point.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 19 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Cold today, then milder but very windy at times, briefly turning cold again in north over weekend, then very mild and generally dry over week of 23 to 29 Dec, turning quite stormy at end of the month.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out cold and windy with passing showers as the northwest winds back into a west-southwest direction. This will give a slightly milder feel to the afternoon especially in western and south coast counties. Highs 7 to 9 C.
TONIGHT variable cloud, breezy, cool, passing showers or outbreaks of light rain, lows 3 to 5 C.
FRIDAY will be breezy and partly cloudy to overcast, with a few scattered outbreaks of light rain, and highs 8 to 11 C. Moderate southwest winds 50 to 70 km/hr.
SATURDAY will become quite windy again, temperatures steady across the southern and central counties in a range of 10 to 12 C, and falling off to 5 to 8 C in the north. Winds west-northwest at about 70-110 km/hr. Blustery or squally showers will come and go, alternating with brief sunny intervals.
SUNDAY continued quite windy and turning a bit cooler (6 to 9 C) in the south while staying in the 5 to 8 C range in the north. A few showers and brighter spells. Winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr.
MONDAY will become milder with some sun at times, showers if any confined to coastal west and northern counties inland. Lows near 4 C and highs 10 to 13 C.
TUESDAY (24th) will be very mild, some hazy sun at times, lows near 5 C and highs 11 to 14 C.
CHRISTMAS DAY will also be hazy and very mild, highs could reach 13 or 14 C in places. Dense fog possible night of 25th-26th.
ST STEPHEN's DAY will continue on quite mild, but as high pressure begins to build up over the south, morning fog could be persistent in a few places, holding temperatures down a few degrees; near coasts it will stay around 12 C.
The rest of the week between then and Sunday 29th will be dominated by the higher pressure, so mild and sometimes hazy sunshine breaking through variable cloud near coasts, foggy at times inland, highs in a range of 7 to 11 C. Nights will become a bit colder as a result of the slack winds and some patchy clearing before fog develops. There have been indications of a stormy interval starting late 29th into New Years and this is becoming a stronger signal today with several rounds of heavy rain and strong southwest to west winds over the interval 29th to 3rd January 2025.

My local weather on Wednesday saw heavy snow ending mid-morning, 25 cm on the ground, followed by rapid clearing and a strong westerly breeze, temperatures around -1 to 0 C; it is clear tonight and quite a bit colder again.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 20 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Becoming very windy at times this weekend, mild at first then colder on Sunday but milder air will return on Monday, persisting for almost a week, in a quiet spell over Christmas. More active weather systems will return later in the month and it could be quite stormy by New Years.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy with intervals of rain this morning followed by partial clearing and scattered showers redeveloping in the afternoon. Winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr, highs 8 to 11 C.
TONIGHT breezy to windy, passing showers, lows near 5 C.
SATURDAY becoming very windy as temperatures spike mid-day around 10 to 12 C, then colder in stages, outbreaks of rain heavier and more persistent in north. Winds increasing to westerly 60 to 90 km/hr.
SUNDAY very windy and cold, some wintry falls possible on northern higher terrain, mixed rain and hail showers at lower elevations. Winds west-northwest 70 to 110 km/hr, some damaging gusts possible. Temperatures steady 4 to 7 C (colder readings in north).
MONDAY a few outbreaks of light rain as it turns milder and winds ease to westerly 40 to 60 km/hr, morning lows near 4 C then afternoon or evening highs around 10 to 12 C. Rather misty or foggy by the overnight hours.
TUESDAY (24th) will be mild with widespread low cloud or mist, some hazy sunshine near coasts, lows near 8 C and highs around 10 to 12 C.
CHRISTMAS DAY and also St STEPHENS DAY will be hazy and very mild, lows near 10 C and highs near 13 C.
Friday 27th to Monday 30th cloudy, some rain at times, breezy and not quite as mild, highs falling off to 7 or 8 C. Still no frosts likely with lows 4 to 6 C.
At this point, models have picked up on the speculation of a stormy interval at New Years with current maps showing potential for wind warnings (southerly gales shifting to westerly) and probably some locally heavy rainfalls with temperatures 8 to 10 C.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a bit of light snow and temperatures steady near -1 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 21 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Becoming very windy at times this weekend, mild at first then colder this evening, overnight into Sunday, but milder air will return on Monday, persisting for almost a week, in a quiet spell over Christmas. More active weather systems will return later in the month and it could be quite stormy by New Years.

FORECASTS

TODAY becoming very windy as temperatures spike mid-day around 10 to 12 C, then turning rapidly colder, outbreaks of rain heavier and more persistent in north. Some wintry mixed showers possible on higher ground by evening. Winds increasing to westerly 60 to 90 km/hr.
TONIGHT and SUNDAY very windy and cold, some wintry falls possible on northern higher terrain, mixed rain and hail showers at lower elevations. Winds west-northwest 70 to 110 km/hr, some damaging gusts possible. Temperatures steady 4 to 7 C (colder readings in north).
MONDAY a few outbreaks of light rain as it turns milder and winds ease to westerly 40 to 60 km/hr, morning lows near 4 C then afternoon or evening highs around 10 to 12 C. Rather misty or foggy by the overnight hours.
TUESDAY (24th) will be mild with widespread low cloud or mist, some hazy sunshine near coasts, lows near 8 C and highs around 10 to 12 C.
CHRISTMAS DAY and also St STEPHENS DAY will be hazy and very mild, lows near 10 C and highs near 13 C.
Friday 27th to Monday 30th cloudy, some rain at times, breezy and not quite as mild, highs falling off to 7 or 8 C. Still no frosts likely with lows 4 to 6 C.
Guidance has begun to show a stormy interval starting around New Years and possibly peaking a few days later now, with quite mild temperatures (near or above 11 C) for several days until a storm develops. Timing at this early stage is very speculative, the period 31 Dec to 6 Jan is "in play" for one or possibly two severe wind events but we won't know details for several days yet.

My local weather on Friday was overcast and a bit milder, with a few raindrops or melting snowflakes during the afternoon as temperatures peaked at 2 C. The snowstorm we had a few days ago moved rapidly to New England where it has brought up to 15 cm ahead of a two-day cold snap expected to begin Saturday there.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 22 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... After a few more hours of the cold winds and pelting showers, a milder trend will develop, sporadic rain at first on Monday before several largely dry and very mild days (24-26 Dec). It could turn a little cooler but still on the mild side of average, with small amounts of rain returning, before a more unsettled and possibly stormy interval at end of the month (and year).

FORECASTS

TODAY very windy this morning, further wintry showers in the north and rain or hail showers elsewhere, winds west-northwest 70 to 110 km/hr and some stronger gusts; conditions will ease gradually this afternoon as winds moderate to westerly 50-80 km/hr. Highs around 6 C but 2 to 4 C at times in wintry showers.
TONIGHT foggy or misty, turning milder in west, with occasional light rain, lows 2 to 5 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, milder, highs near 11 C west, 8 C east.
TUESDAY (24th) very mild, hazy, lows 8 to 10 C and highs 11 to 13 C.
WEDNESDAY (Christmas Day) hazy, very mild, nearly calm in most areas, lows 8 to 10 C and highs 12 to 14 C.
THURSDAY (26th) mostly cloudy, some light rain at times in west, lows 6 to 8 C and highs 10 to 12 C.
FRIDAY (27th) and WEEKEND 28th-29th mostly cloudy, some outbreaks of light rain, lows 5 to 7 C and highs 7 to 9 C,
More unsettled and possibly stormy near New Years and into early January, guidance has been shifting around with colder air being a larger component although not necessarily covering all of Ireland at any point, so a clash of air masses will only increase storm potential.

My local weather on Saturday was very foggy, visibility barely 100 meters and drizzle turning to heavy wet snow by afternoon. A slushy 2-5 cm is on the ground now, temperatures have been steady near 0 to 1 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 23 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... After a little rain today, mostly dry and very mild for several days, with some rain returning to western and northern coastal counties by late Thursday (26th). A very placid weather pattern will persist to about the last day or two of the month before it turns more active, details yet to be established.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of showery rain, only persistent in some western counties. Milder, highs 10 to 12 C.
TONIGHT misty with fog patches, mild. Lows 7 to 10 C.
TUESDAY (24th) mostly cloudy, very mild. Highs 11 to 13 C.
CHRISTMAS DAY looks very mild also with a few glimpses of hazy sunshine despite a fairly widespread cloud deck. Lows 8 to 11 C and highs 12 to 14 C. Winds quite slack away from breezy northwest coastlines.
THURSDAY (26th, St Stephen's Day) will continue about the same except that some light rain could brush western and later northern coastal counties. This rain likely won't appear very much further inland than the west midlands to inland central Ulster. Lows near 8 C and highs near 11 C.
FRIDAY to SUNDAY will continue rather tranquil for time of year, weak frontal zones may bring small amounts of rain near western coasts mainly, and skies will be variable with a few brighter spells in east and south. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 8 to 11 C.
By MONDAY (30th) and TUESDAY (31st Dec) a more active pattern will be kicking in, and details remain less than certain but deep low pressure could form near Ireland at about this time and could bring strong winds around New Year's Eve into New Year's Day. Rain is likely at times.
An air mass contrast will begin to develop over Ireland and northern Britain around this time and it could lead to either a sudden cold snap lasting a few days, or a second round of stormy conditions especially if a first storm lays down a suitable zone for further development.
My local weather on Sunday was overcast with occasional wet snow, just small slushy accumulations but our existing snow pack of about 30 cm remains in place, quite icy on side streets and parking areas. Temperatures are stuck in a narrow zone just around the freezing point.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 24 December, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Very mild and dry for a few days with rain slowly moving into the western and northern counties, becoming more active towards New Years, possibly turning quite cold at times in early January.
FORECASTS
TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, misty with drizzle in a few places, very mild, highs 11 to 13 C.
TONIGHT and CHRISTMAS DAY will continue mostly cloudy, very mild, lows overnight near 10 C and highs tomorrow 12 to 14 C.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY will see a gradual eastward drift of light rain from western into central counties and temperatures still quite mild in the 8-10 C range mostly.
By the weekend (28th-29th) it will turn slightly cooler with showers and some brighter intervals in a westerly flow, highs 7 to 9 C.
Around 30th into 31st a storm seems likely and it could get very windy if this storm comes together far enough north, temperatures would be generally around 7 to 9 C, but could be briefly colder in the north allowing a rain-snow mix for a time there.
The first week of January has considerably different guidance on different models but themes of stormy weather and occasional cold spells are fairly common to each model at present. Details will probably be different from what any of them show today (it's still about ten days out), one very basic theme is a lot of snow over northern hills and in Scotland. So we'll continue to follow developments over the holiday period,
My local weather on Monday was cloudy with sunny breaks, a drive around the region revealed that there were several cloud layers with clear skies above 1500m. It was rather mild, 7 C in the nearby valley and 2 C at mid-mountain, -3 C in the alpine where there is a ton of snow now.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 25 December, 2024 __ Forecast update

Forecast for today and next few days is basically same as posted yesterday ... very mild, dry at first, a little rain later, temperatures gradually falling back closer to seasonal averages.

Guidance continues to suggest active if not stormy weather around New Years and a possibility of colder weather in early January.

I will take a few days off now and return with forecasts on Friday 27 Dec. I hope your Christmas holiday is peaceful and joyous (I will settle for either / or !). -- mtc

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 27 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Mild and generally dry away from north and northwest where some light rain will fall over next several days. A fairly strong storm will develop overnight New Years Eve and much colder air will arrive on strong northerly winds later New Years Day, but this cold spell will only last about two or three days before we get back into a mild southwest flow with occasional strong winds possible again.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few outbreaks of light rain mostly in north and northwest. Highs 8 to 11 C.
TONIGHT mostly cloudy, mild, intermittent light rain in north and west, lows near 6 C.
SATURDAY to MONDAY this rather bland weather pattern will continue with a few showers further east at times, but most of the light rain will stay confined to west and north. Highs will continue to be close to 10 C, and nights will be mild (lows 4 to 7 C).
TUESDAY (31st) winds will begin to increase gradually to southwest 50-80 km/hr by afternoon and evening; mild with temperatures steady near 11 or 12 C.
NEW YEAR's DAY will continue mild and windy to mid-day, then will turn sharply colder as a strong cold front races south, possibly bringing a brief interval of squally hail showers. Temperatures will be steady 10-12 C until it arrives, and will fall quickly to 4 C by late in the day, on north-northwest winds of 70-110 km/hr, so quite a wind chill.
By THURSDAY 2nd, windy and cold with wintry showers, lows near 3 C and highs 5 to 7 C. Winds northwest 50-80 km/hr.
FRIDAY 3rd January will likely be less windy, starting out with a frost and possibly some sleety cold rain later as warm fronts approach. It will turn milder in stages through SATURDAY 4th and SUNDAY 5th, some earlier guidance was developing a strong windstorm with this, but latest information downplays that potential a bit. It could return to later forecasts though.

My local weather for the past several days has been snowy, and temperatures have been around -1 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 28 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Mild and generally dry to early Tuesday, some rain at times early to mid-day Tuesday, brief clearing for evening of 31st then a wind and rain to sleet cold frontal passage likely on New Years Day, followed by several days of bright but cold weather.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and brief showers in some northern counties. Mild, highs 8 to 11 C.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, breezy, lows 4 to 7 C.
SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, mild, highs near 10 C.
MONDAY will be cloudy, some light rain at times in north, winds picking up gradually to southwest 40-70 km/hr. Lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.
TUESDAY breezy to windy with rain at times during the morning, clearing and becoming less windy towards evening. Temperatures steady near 10 C may drop off a few degrees with any clearing of skies after sunset New Year's Eve (more likely in north), so by midnight with clouds increasing again from west, temperatures likely to be in a range of 3 to 7 C north to south.
NEW YEAR's DAY will start out with an interval of rain and possibly sleet or snow in some north-central counties as a second low moves rapidly across Ireland during the mid-day hours. Guidance is converging on a Shannon to Dublin track for this feature meaning that sleet to snow potential is greatest inland north central counties, while the south coast sees a brief interval of windy and mild conditions near 12 C. Temperatures everywhere will fall rapidly in the afternoon as the low crosses Britain and drags in colder air from the north. Winds could be into the "yellow alert" 70-110 km/hr range (and slight possibility of going higher) as temperatures fall to near 3 C. Wintry showers are likely to follow overnight into Thursday 2nd.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be bright and cold days with a strong northwest wind dying out by Friday afternoon as high pressure crests over western Ireland. Highs 3 to 6 C and slight frosts likely.
Guidance is now starting to prolong this cold spell a bit, not sold on that being a real trend or more flipping and flopping as this interval has seen already several times. Eventually it will likely turn windy and milder around 8-10 Jan and into mid-January it could get quite active again.
My local weather on Friday was overcast with drizzly light snow, no real accumulation, and highs near -1 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 29 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Mild and generally dry to early Tuesday, some rain at times early to mid-day Tuesday, brief clearing for evening of 31st then a wind and rain to sleet cold frontal passage likely on New Years Day, followed by several days of bright but cold weather.

FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, mild, highs near 10 C. Just a few scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle at times mostly in Ulster and north to west Connacht.
TONIGHT breezy, mild, occasional light rain in north, lows 6-8 C.
MONDAY will be cloudy, some light rain at times in north, winds picking up gradually to southwest 40-70 km/hr, highs near 11 C.
TUESDAY breezy to windy with rain at times during the morning, clearing and becoming less windy towards evening. Temperatures steady near 10 C may drop off a few degrees with any clearing of skies after sunset New Year's Eve (more likely in north and east), so by midnight with clouds increasing again from west, temperatures likely to be in a range of 3 to 7 C north to south.
NEW YEAR's DAY will start out with an interval of rain and possibly sleet or snow in some north-central counties as a second low moves rapidly across Ireland during the mid-day hours. Guidance is converging on a central Ireland west to east track for this feature meaning that sleet to snow potential is greatest inland north central counties, while the south coast sees a brief interval of windy and mild conditions near 12 C. Temperatures everywhere will fall rapidly in the afternoon as the low crosses Britain and drags in colder air from the north. Winds could be into the "yellow alert" 70-110 km/hr range as temperatures fall to near 3 C. Wintry showers are likely to follow overnight into Thursday 2nd, night of 1-2 Jan will be windy and cold with wintry showers and lows near -1 C.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be bright and cold days with a strong northwest wind dying out by Friday afternoon as high pressure crests over western Ireland. Highs 3 to 6 C and slight frosts likely.
This cold spell could last for at least a week as guidance is now converging on a solution where a reinforcing shot of colder air arrives from the north-northeast around weekend of 4-5 Jan. This will shunt any storms in the Atlantic south into the Iberian peninsula and southern France for about a week. A battleground scenario is quite possible about a week into January when the jet stream tries to push back north and this very cold air mass is still in place, possibly with some snow on the ground from the northeast flow (but at first the cold will likely be dry in most areas).

My local weather was quite mild on Saturday with a few drops of rain during the evening and temperatures steady around 1 or 2 C, even so, a prolific snow cover of nearly 60 cm is now on the ground after about a week of steady snowfalls.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 30 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Mild spell will end rather abruptly on New Years Day, and it will then be quite cold for at least a week to ten days. Guidance splits into several camps as to details and we cannot be very definitive about snow potential during this cold spell, it ranges from almost none to quite a lot of snow depending on which forecast model we want to trust.

FORECASTS
TODAY will be breezy to windy at times, and mild, with outbreaks of rain in Ulster and north Connacht, but partly cloudy skies at times further south. Highs near 11 C. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr.
TONIGHT rain becoming a bit heavier and more widespread, breezy, lows near 9 C.
TUESDAY rain ending during the mid-day to afternoon hours, partial clearing, windy (southwest veering to west-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr). Highs near 11 C.
NEW YEAR's EVE overnight weather will be dry and cool for some parts of the east, cloudy with a few clear intervals, lows near 3 C. Further west, rain will resume and a strong southeast to south wind could hit parts of west Munster before dawn. Lows near 7 C.
NEW YEAR's DAY colder air will collide with remnants of the mild air mass still trying to hold onto some parts of the south to mid-day. Results could be sleet or snow inland (south or central depending on track of a low forming along the cold front). Temperatures will be near 10 C in the south for a few hours and 3 to 5 C further north. A cold rain could turn to snow and drop temperatures to 2 or even 0 to 1 C for a time. After that transition, partial clearing, windy and cold into the night of 1st-2nd, passing wintry showers in a strong northwest wind.
THURSDAY (2nd Jan, 2025) will be bright and cold with a few isolated wintry showers, lows near -2 C and highs near 3 C north to 6 C south.
FRIDAY will continue partly cloudy with clear intervals and cold, lows near -4 C and highs 2 to 5 C.
Forecast models diverge around this point. European guidance generally speaking predicts a weak return of milder air from the southwest, drizzle and light rain, lasting most of the weekend of 4-5 Jan, turning to sleet or wet snow later during the following week. Some other guidance says colder air will be a stronger block for the Atlantic and will continue to dominate for several more days with risk of a snowfall across the southern or possibly central counties. I think either outcome is about equally likely so watch for updates as we hope these two camps will come together on one solution by perhaps Wednesday (for the Thursday morning forecast).
Any prolonged cold spell is almost bound to create some snow cover and that could melt quickly if there is a future breakdown near mid-January.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast, rather mild, with drizzly wet snow not leaving much of an accumulation. It has become quite foggy with light east winds here, temperature 1 to 2 C. Meanwhile eastern regions are mild now, about to turn much colder early in January also, and with snowfall threats increasing for the east coast of the U.S. by around 7-8 January.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 31 December, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... Colder and mostly dry for the first few days of January, sleet or snow risk by weekend into Monday 6 Jan. Very cold for a time after that. A volatile period could follow with a brief thaw and milder, rainy conditions mid-month.

FORECASTS
TODAY will be breezy to windy, and quite mild. A band of rather heavy showers has developed across Ulster and Connacht. This may weaken a bit when it reaches Leinster around mid-day, and some parts of Munster could remain dry while showers traverse inland portions by afternoon and evening. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr, highs 10 to 12 C.
TONIGHT will continue rather windy but somewhat calmer inland at times, a few passing showers and temperatures gradually falling to around 7 C by midnight in the south, 4 C in the north. Strongest winds will likely be near Donegal Bay after midnight (west-northwest 50-80 km/hr).
NEW YEAR's DAY will be a breezy to windy day with changeable skies and fast-moving showers, some sleety. The risk of a measurable snowfall seems to have diminished but we can't rule out a coating of snow on some higher terrain. It will become quite cold by mid-day and very cold by evening as temperatures stall near 6 C in the morning (4 C north) and slide down to 3 C by evening.
THURSDAY will be windy and cold with a few passing flurries or hail showers, sunny intervals also, winds north backing to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs 3 to 5 C.
FRIDAY will be bright and cold with a morning frost, and this may be slow to clear away in shaded areas. Lows -4 to -1 C and highs 3 to 6 C. Winds will be more moderate but it will still feel quite cold in any breeze.
WEEKEND to MONDAY ... Model guidance continues to be somewhat spread out over a range of outcomes, all models show some attempt of milder air to push back towards Ireland, and some bring enough warming to turn sleet over to a cold rain, while others suggest a mixture of sleet and snow that could accumulate in some parts of the south to central counties. Eventually during this period it seems likely to become very windy from the north to northeast as colder air pushes into Ireland behind a departing low gaining strength over the North Sea. By Monday then it could be very windy and cold with snow at times, temperatures during this weekend to Monday interval likely to be chilly even if somewhat milder than Friday, and potentially could be as low as 2 C or as high as 7 C depending on which guidance proves best. By Monday it's likely to be very close to zero C all day long.
This very cold air mass will apparently stick around for several days, with winds falling off to light as high pressure crests then becoming southeasterly 40-60 km/hr later in the week. Temperatures could be very cold if there's any snow cover produced by events around Sunday-Monday, and some guidance suggests -8 to -15 C potential over any snow cover in both Ireland and Britain. Bare ground is likely to seep out some heat and keep the lowest readings closer to about -6 C. A lot of uncertainty about details and potential for the interval to be quite wintry.
Eventually it seems likely that a strong low would push in from the southwest and it could bring rain and milder temperatures by mid-month to some areas although that could be more for the southeast only and parts of Britain.

My local weather on Monday was mostly cloudy and mild with highs near 3 C at our elevation and 7 C in the Columbia valley (which has no snow on the ground in most places). It was very mild in eastern regions of North America and is about to turn a lot colder in several stages leading to snowstorms in some parts of the east in the first ten days of January.

Happy new year and best wishes for 2025 to all.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 1 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... After a showery start today, dry and cold for several days and then a mixed bag of sleety cold rain and outbreaks of snow from Saturday to Monday, more cold weather to follow with the risk of more snow but also some potential for sudden warming.

FORECASTS
TODAY will be showery and cool with brisk northwest winds of 50 to 70 km/hr, highs 4 to 7 C. Some showers will turn to hail, sleet or wet snow especially (a) in northern counties and (b) on higher terrain elsewhere.
TONIGHT will be clear with a few cloudy intervals and isolated wintry showers, very cold, lows -4 to -1 C. Winds will moderate inland but will remain gusty near coasts.
THURSDAY will be breezy to windy and cold with passing wintry showers and sunny intervals, highs 3 to 6 C.
FRIDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, frosty, lows -5 to -2 C and highs 4 to 7 C.
SATURDAY will likely bring overcast skies and sleet to parts of the south, wet snow further north. Details will not be too clear until perhaps Thursday. It will be rather windy (northeast 40-70 km/hr) and raw, temperatures steady near 4 C near south coast, 1-2 C inland south, near zero C further north.
SUNDAY and MONDAY this wintry mix could linger but also there's a chance it will all turn to snow, heavy in some eastern and inland southern counties. This part of the forecast is very uncertain due to a wide range of guidance suggestions for how the low pressure system will track and develop. I think there's a fairly good chance of a snowfall of significant proportions in some part of Ireland but I cannot place a high probability on it yet. Temperatures are likely to remain either (a) cool as with Saturday's outlook or (b) colder in a range of -2 to +1 C.
By next week, a very cold air mass could be settling in -- if there's snow cover then it will be unusually frigid (-5 to -10 C in places), but if there's little to no snow cover then it's likely to range from about -6 to +1 C depending on proximity to the ocean in a northerly flow.
Details beyond middle of the week (Wed 8th) become even less reliable with some suggestions of a second wintry mixture event and other suggestions of gradual warming on southeast winds.
For whatever reason the weather models have been very unreliable for details recently, for example, there was to be a well-developed low pressure system crossing Ireland today that more or less vanished from guidance about 48 hours ago. Not to make excuses but if we cannot rely on the guidance then we're essentially back to pre-1970 technology of drawing up maps and watching trends (and it worked to some extent because of the skill of forecasters given that range of options).

My local weather has been bland to the extreme for several days, Tuesday was overcast, rather foggy, and some freezing drizzle or snow grains were falling without leaving much more than a trace, and it was cold (-3 C). Thunderstorms greeted New Years' celebrants in parts of the eastern U.S. as a low tracked across New Jersey towards southern New England. A much colder regime is about to set in for that region.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 2 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... cold and dry to mid-day Saturday for most, isolated wintry showers ... winter storm conditions are 70% likely across large portions of Ireland from late Saturday to early or mid-day Monday, only south and east coast likely to remain outside a zone of heavy mixed sleet and snow ... cold for a few days then turning a lot milder towards end of next week ...any heavy snow cover could melt rapidly then.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with a few passing wintry showers, cold, winds northwest 40-70 km/hr adding a chill to highs only in the range of 3 to 6 C.
TONIGHT clear with a few clouds, very cold, winds falling off near calm inland, freezing fog in a few locations. Lows -5 to -2 C.
FRIDAY sunny with increasing high cloud, cold. Highs 3 to 6 C.
FRIDAY NIGHT also very cold and frosty, lows -5 to -2 C.
SATURDAY becoming overcast, rain near south coast and sleet turning to snow inland by late afternoon or evening, winds east to northeast 40-70 km/hr, temperatures steady near 1 C except 4 to 8 degrees near south coast and 2 to 5 C near east coast.
By SUNDAY, heavy wet snow accumulating inland to 15-30 cms, a mixture of sleet and snow closer to coasts and less accumulation there (all subject to about 70% probability, if this low tracks further north a cold rain could spread further north inland, anywhere south of the track of the low will be somewhat milder). The most likely outcome is for winter storm conditions to develop by Saturday night into Sunday morning and travel may become difficult or near impossible in some regions. Temperatures steady in a range of -2 to +1 C with strong northeast winds backing to northerly 50 to 80 km/hr. Roads if passable would quickly become icy too.
MONDAY windy and cold, further falls of snow or sleet likely, winds north backing to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, temperatures steady in a very cold range of -3 to +1 C.
For several days after this potential winter storm, rather cloudy but very cold, any clearing of skies would lead to very low temperatures in a range of -5 to -15 C over snow cover. It's likely to remain below freezing in the daytime in central and inland northern regions, and in the 1 to 4 C range near south and east coasts. It won't be windy as weak high pressure settles in, but there may be another snowfall risk mid-week from a low tracking towards southern England.
It looks likely to turn much milder rather quickly around 10th to 12th of January and then could stay mild for about a week with occasional rain and temperatures back up to where they were last week, 8 to 11 C.
Once again, I should emphasize this forecast is probabilistic based on a lot of model support for snow, and you should check all sources frequently if you have travel concerns or just a curiosity as to how forecasts are evolving. I may do a late afternoon update on this occasion.

My local weather on New Year's Day was overcast with a few patches of blue sky mostly to our north and east, and it was quite cold at about -5 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 3 January, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS ... cold and dry to mid-day Saturday for most, isolated wintry showers ... winter storm conditions are 80% likely across large portions of Ireland from late Saturday to early or mid-day Monday, only south and east coast likely to remain outside a zone of heavy mixed sleet and snow ... cold for a few days then turning a lot milder towards end of next week ...any heavy snow cover could melt rapidly then.

FORECASTS
FRIDAY sunny and cold with increasing high cloud. Highs 3 to 6 C. Isolated wintry showers near north coast.
TONIGHT also very cold and frosty, lows -5 to -2 C.
SATURDAY becoming overcast, rain near south coast and sleet turning to snow inland by late afternoon or evening, winds east to northeast 40-70 km/hr, temperatures steady near 1 C except 4 to 8 degrees near south coast and 2 to 5 C near east coast.
SATURDAY NIGHT will see widespread falls of sleet and snow, accumulating to 10-20 cm in some central counties. Temperatures steady near -1 C in most areas, 2 to 5 C near east and south coasts.
By SUNDAY, heavy wet snow accumulating inland to 15-30 cms, a mixture of sleet and snow closer to coasts and less accumulation there (all subject to about 80% probability, if this low tracks further north a cold rain could spread further north inland, anywhere south of the track of the low will be somewhat milder; model trends are increasingly pointing towards a south coast "slider" track and one or two sources showing a central Ireland track are not well supported). The most likely outcome is for winter storm conditions to develop by Saturday night into Sunday morning and travel may become difficult or near impossible in some regions. Temperatures steady in a range of -2 to +1 C with strong northeast winds backing to northerly 50 to 80 km/hr. Roads if passable would quickly become icy too.
MONDAY windy and cold, further falls of snow or sleet likely, winds north backing to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, temperatures steady in a very cold range of -3 to +1 C.
For several days after this potential winter storm, rather cloudy but very cold, any clearing of skies would lead to very low temperatures in a range of -5 to -15 C over snow cover. It's likely to remain below freezing in the daytime in central and inland northern regions, and in the 1 to 4 C range near south and east coasts. It won't be windy as weak high pressure settles in, but there may be another snowfall risk mid-week from a low tracking towards southern England.
It looks likely to turn much milder in stages around 10th to 12th of January and then could stay mild for about a week with occasional rain and temperatures back up to where they were last week, 8 to 11 C.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with light snow and a high near -4 C.