Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 2 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rather cloudy in eastern counties, areas of rain are expected to remain largely off the east coast but could back in occasionally, as western parts of Britain have a much worse outlook for colder temperatures and sustained rainfalls, so it's going to be a close call for a few parts of the eastern portions of Ireland too; further west, a rather dry outlook, but occasional showers and no better than average amounts of sunshine. All areas could feel a bit chilly but overall average temperatures could be just a bit below average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy in eastern counties, and rain could come and go in some areas particularly north of Dublin and around Dublin itself. Further west, any rainfall more showery and patchy with some areas staying dry. Sunshine improving by afternoon in all but a few eastern coastal locations. Highs near 18 C.

TONIGHT cloudy with clear breaks, some rain could continue along coast north of Dublin mainly, lows near 8 C.

TUESDAY partly cloudy, a few showers developing, northwest to north breezes, highs 15 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY is likely to remain similar with rather disorganized frontal systems trapped over Britain in a "col" feature under a higher latitude ridge that will probably favour better weather for west Ulster and Connacht into west Munster. Expect a bit of rain in a few locations, largely dry spells more prevalent, and temperatures in a range of 6 to 8 C for overnight lows, to 15 to 18 for daytime highs. Anywhere getting a lot of sun could see 19 or even 20 C.

Towards weekend of 7-8 Sep, more vigorous bands of rain could be spreading west and also the ridge will begin to weaken over the northwestern regions, allowing Atlantic moisture to edge in towards those counties as well. Some central counties could stay in an ever-decreasing dry wedge longest. So basically, on either coast you might expect slowly deteriorating weather while in central counties it could stay "not too bad" -- don't think it will get rave reviews due to some cloud and relatively cool temperatures, but acceptable for outdoor activity.

If you do have any travel plans to Britain I would underscore the fact that some very unseasonable chill and wet conditions could be encountered there especially towards later portions of the interval.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and very warm again, this warm spell is quite tolerable because it's cooling down at night to values around 10 C after daytime highs close to 30 C. So we're able to stay quite comfortable inside unlike the broiling conditions we had earlier in the summer.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 3 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... rather cool, cloudy and damp in some areas at first, turning warmer and generally dry later in the week although some rain could reach southeast from a very wet system moving west across southwestern England. Temperatures will likely increase to about 2 to 3 deg above normal later in the interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, some sunny intervals by late afternoon and evening. Scattered outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, most likely from east Ulster south into north Leinster and parts of midlands, but also less frequently elsewhere. Highs 15 to 17 C.
TONIGHT fog patches, drizzle, lows 8 to 11 C.
WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, some light rain at times mostly in eastern counties, clearing later, highs 16 to 18 C.
THURSDAY partly cloudy to sunny except for some areas of rain near southeast coast, lows near 12 C and highs 18 to 20 C.
FRIDAY to about MONDAY including the weekend, sunny intervals and quite warm in a northeast flow, lows near 13 C and highs 20 to 23 C. Better sunshine values likely to occur in north and west, rather cloudy near east coast. Slight risk of showers in cloudier areas of east and south.
That wedge of warmer air will stagnate over Ireland early next week as a weak push of unsettled Atlantic air masses tries to invade from the west, and renewed moisture drifts in towards the southeastern counties. It may be quite a subtle change day to day before a more mobile weather pattern is restored and then it could turn quite unsettled.

My local weather on (Labour Day) Monday was sunny at first, cloudy later, and warm with highs near 27 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 4 September, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... warming rapidly after a cool start today. Better sunshine values will follow, especially away from the cloudier southeast coastal regions. After a bit of showery rain today, most places will become dry but again the southeast could see some rain spinning off from a disturbance dropping heavier amounts in southwest England and western France. Temperatures will improve to about 3 or 4 deg above normal by Friday and weekend. A much colder trend is possible late next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy, with drizzly light rain or showers, no large accumulations expected (1-3 mm mostly), but damp all the same. Moderate northwest to north winds will make it feel quite chilly with highs only 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT gradual clearing, last of the showers ending in the southeast around midnight. Lows 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, except rather cloudy in general near southeast coast. Winds backing to northeast 30-50 km/hr, in this odd pattern will be tapping on warm air further east over central and northern Britain. Highs will reach 20 C in parts of the inland north, and 16 to 18 C in most other areas.

FRIDAY sunny intervals and very warm, but some persistent cloud and the risk of heavy thundery rain in a few parts of the east and south. Lows 12 to 15 C and highs 17 to 19 C under persistent cloud, otherwise 21 to 24 C.

SATURDAY may see a break in the cloud and rain for the southeast and allow the fine conditions elsewhere to spread in there as well, so for now we'll optimistically say mostly sunny and quite warm, lows near 14 C and highs 21 to 24 C.

SUNDAY another spoke of the eddying-around low could arrive across the southeast (the low will be weakening on this pass) so it will be more similar to Friday than Saturday in terms of a forecast, sunny intervals for north, west and central counties, possibly cloudy with some rain at times in parts of south and east. Lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C. There is some chance this later activity of the low will not be very significant.

MONDAY continued rather warm with partly cloudy skies, lows around 13 C and highs around 21 C.

TUESDAY a cold front begins to approach, clouds will increase and some rain will begin to fall in Ulster and north Connacht. Lows near 12 C and highs near 20 C.

Around WEDNESDAY of next week, a fairly strong cold front may be gradually pushing south across the country bringing a noticeable drop in temperatures to low teens, and brisk northwest winds with showers. By THURSDAY and FRIDAY it could be more autumnal with highs only 10 to 13 C and lows 2 to 5 C with local frost becoming a possibility in the usual rural low-lying areas.

That colder turn does not look like it would persist too long, before a more average sort of regime replaces it from a westerly source, but the price for that may be intervals of heavy frontal rain and strong winds at times by the autumn equinox.

My local weather continues summer-like with sunshine all day and highs near 30 C. Once again, it cools off quite readily after sunset and it's already down to 14 C. We're in this for at least another week and temperatures further south are breaking records (again) in what turned out to be the hottest summer on record in many parts of the interior west (as well as a few places in the inland northeastern U.S. but top ten ranks were more prevalent).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 5 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... warming to 3 or 4 deg above normal for a few days, then cooler in stages next week, eventually it could be nearly as far below average (2 to 3 at least) about a week from now. Rain will skirt the south coast later today and once or twice more as a complex disturbance eddies around to the south, some guidance shows the rain largely just offshore but that would be as much luck as skill given the uncertainty factors at play; south coast counties have the more significant risk anyway and it should stay dry over large parts of the north and west if not also east-central to southwest inland. Some sun at times during the warmer interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with patchy high to mid-level cloud layers more prevalent south of Wicklow to Clare. Warming up gradually to around 18-20 C.
TONIGHT rain will move west near the south coast, as discussed above, it could stay largely off the south coast, or it could just catch the first 10-20 km of land from Wexford to Cork. Off the coast it will definitely be quite heavy as it leaves areas of southwest England expecting 50-70 mm falls. So if the guidance proves erratic that rain could make a surprise visit to some part of Ireland too, it's not in the forecast to do so. Lows generally quite mild 13-15 C, moderate east to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr.
FRIDAY any rain that does come ashore will likely be heading west into the Atlantic by mid-morning. Further secondary moisture bands could follow in similar tracks near the south coast but once again, no guarantee any place will see any rain from them, and most places warm and dry with sun filtered by higher cloud at times, east to northeast breezes, and highs into 21-24 C range (could be held down to 18 C near east and south coasts).
SATURDAY will see this pattern rather static although there will probably be more cloud in general and it won't be quite as warm, lows of 15 C and highs 19 to 22 C. Again, some chance of rain near southeast coast, and breakaway bands of moisture could possibly make deeper incursions into east-central to southwest Ireland but it's somewhat uncertain.
SUNDAY variable cloud, a few showers, as the southern low begins to drift north through Britain to join up with a lurking subarctic low near Iceland. That will bring about substantial changes eventually, but for Sunday, still rather warm, lows near 12 C and highs 18 to 21 C, and a few areas of low cloud possible where northeast to north winds hit higher ground.
By MONDAY a band of rain will begin to move back around from the north from the resulting merged low pressure now reorganized near Ulster. This will feed showers into most regions eventually but the first part of the day could stay dry in the south and east. Lows near 10 C and highs near 18 C.
From TUESDAY on, cooler in stages with moderate to strong west to northwest winds as the low deepens just off the Antrim coast, some heavy bands of rain possible in northern counties each day, highs around 15 C on Tuesday and 11-13 C later in the week. A fair amount of cloud may prevent frost but nights will be chilly (lows could be around 5-7 C).
This cooler spell will be followed by a return to near average temperatures but quite unsettled and potentially even stormy weather conditions at times by mid-September towards the equinox period.

My local weather on Wednesday was again sunny and quite warm near 30 C. Clear nights and no moon present, too bad the auroral displays went away for a while (from latest info, an active region of the Sun is approaching the central meridian as the Sun takes 25-26 days to rotate, and this may mean a flare-up of activity in a few days).

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 6 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... warm and dry for most with a slight risk of rain near south coast for next few days, isolated showers further north, temperatures 3 to 4 deg above normal to about Monday, then turning considerably cooler, widespread showers but amounts generally not heavy, quite windy at times and later next week about 2 to 3 deg below average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will feature warm sunshine with patchy high cloud in most areas, moderate northeasterly breezes 40-60 km/hr, gusty near east coast at times, highs 21 to 24 C. A slight risk of an interval of rain once again brushing the south coast by afternoon. (Yesterday it only rained briefly in southeast corner of Wexford, this could be a similar near miss or it could push a bit further inland)
TONIGHT clear with a few clouds north and central, partly cloudy to overcast south, very mild, lows 13 to 16 C.
SATURDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, warm, again some chances for thundery showers to develop in a few places in the south and east, but many places will stay dry. Highs 20 to 23 C.
SUNDAY variable cloud, isolated showers and not quite as warm, winds backing to north-northwest 30-50 km/hr. Lows near 14 C and highs near 19 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, showers becoming more frequent in north and west by afternoon and evening, lows near 13 C and highs 17 to 19 C.
TUESDAY breezy and turning cooler, a band of heavy showers will push southeast during the day, winds will become westerly 50 to 70 km/hr, lows near 12 C and highs 14 to 16 C.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be quite cool with west to northwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr and a few showers, variable amounts of cloud, Lows near 5 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
By FRIDAY (the 13th) turning a bit milder, rain could develop. Highs around 16 C. Weekend outlook for 14th-15th is unsettled but turning warmer again, and it could remain rather warm for a few days of the week following.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and hot as highs pushed into the 33-35 C range across the region. Even so we are still being favoured with some reasonably cool nights. This warm spell or heat wave now will likely last to Tuesday here before we also see a sharp drop in our temperatures.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 7 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Warm temperatures will gradually reverse to cooler than average later in the week. Some showery rains will resume around Monday but total rainfalls look to be 50-75 per cent of a normal week's worth by next weekend.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be warm again with sunshine dimmed at times by higher cloud. An isolated shower could develop in parts of the inland southeast and also east Ulster later afternoon to evening, but almost all locations should remain dry. Highs 20 to 23 C.
TONIGHT partly cloudy, mild, lows around 13 C.
SUNDAY variable amounts of cloud, a few showers are possible especially near the east coast and in northwestern counties, but again, guidance suggests mostly dry conditions will prevail. Highs around 20 C.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy with increasing amounts of cloud developing across the north followed by late afternoon or evening showers there. Lows near 12 C and highs 18 to 20 C.
TUESDAY will begin to turn cooler, with a band of rain or showers moving gradually southeast across the country. Outside of this band, skies will be partly cloudy with scattered showers following as winds increase to west-northwest 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs 14 to 17 C.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be quite cool and breezy to windy with some outbreaks of rain mostly in west and north, lows 5 to 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C (could top out near 16 C in coastal south and southeast). Winds northwesterly 40 to 70 km/hr will be gusty at times.
FRIDAY variable cloud, less windy, quite chilly to start (lows 1-4 C) and then a bit warmer during the day at about 16-18 C.
NEXT WEEKEND (14th-15th) looks unsettled with low pressure approaching the south coast bringing a risk of heavier rainfalls there. After that tracks east into Britain, the following week looks mainly dry with near average (for mid-September) temperatures.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and hot, highs reaching about 34 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 8 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Warm temperatures will gradually reverse to cooler than average later in the week. Some showery rains will resume around Monday but total rainfalls look to be 50-75 per cent of a normal week's worth by next weekend.

FORECASTS

TODAY variable amounts of cloud, some sunny intervals are still in the mix and only a few showers are likely, now appearing most likely over central counties, but again, guidance suggests mostly dry conditions will prevail. Highs around 20 C.
TONIGHT cloudy with a few clear breaks, lows near 12 C.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy with increasing amounts of cloud developing across the north followed by late afternoon or evening showers there. Lows near 12 C and highs 18 to 20 C.
TUESDAY will begin to turn cooler, with a band of rain or showers moving gradually southeast across the country. Outside of this band, skies will be partly cloudy with scattered showers following as winds increase to west-northwest 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs 14 to 17 C.
WEDNESDAY will be quite cool and breezy to windy with some outbreaks of rain, some thundery downpours, mostly in west and north, lows 5 to 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C (could top out near 16 C in coastal south and southeast). Winds northwesterly 40 to 70 km/hr will be gusty at times.
THURSDAY not as windy, but similar temperatures, showers more isolated. (lows 4 to 6 C and highs 12 to 15 C). Skies will brighten during the afternoon as winds fall off to light by evening.
FRIDAY variable cloud, less windy, quite chilly to start (lows 1-4 C) and then a bit warmer during the day at about 16-18 C. Rain could push into western counties by afternoon or evening.
NEXT WEEKEND (14th-15th) looks unsettled with low pressure approaching, bringing a risk of heavier rainfalls. After that tracks east into Britain, the following week looks mainly dry with near average (for mid-September) temperatures.

My local weather on Saturday was again sunny and hot, highs reaching about 34 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 9 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Turning colder in stages and quite chilly by Wednesday to Friday morning, temperatures will be near 3-4 deg below average then. Warming back to near average by next weekend. Rainfalls fairly heavy in some western and northern counties, but generally below average elsewhere. Rather cloudy in general.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with rain spreading into northern counties later on. Highs 17 to 19 C.
TONIGHT a band of rain will move steadily south to reach about a Dublin to Galway line by the morning commute. Lows 7 to 9 C.
TUESDAY ... The early band of showers will mark a cold front after which temperatures will remain rather cool despite a few sunny breaks. Winds will veer to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr after this front passes, clearing the south coast around early afternoon. Some heavier showers will develop in the colder air mass over Connacht and Ulster by afternoon, highs 11 to 14 C north, 14 to 17 C south.
WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and cool with heavy showers, some thundery, in northern and western counties, trending to briefer passing showers in the south and east. Lows 5 to 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C north, 13 to 15 C south. Winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr in some exposed areas.
THURSDAY less windy but still rather cool, showers dying out, sunny intervals by afternoon. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 13 to 16 C.
FRIDAY after some patchy frost during the night, warming up in stages during the day as winds switch to south-southwest. Some rain at times from a warm front passing through northern counties. Lows 1 to 4 C, highs by late afternoon near 17 C in south, 14 C north.
SATURDAY will be breezy and mild with intervals of rain, clearing later. Lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C.
SUNDAY variable cloud and some showers, lows near 11 C and highs near 18 C.
The following week will bring mostly fair weather with temperatures near average. There are signs of a strong hurricane forming in the central Atlantic by about two weeks from now, most likely to remain well west of Ireland moving north towards Iceland.

That would be about the third or fourth named storm to develop in the coming days, if guidance is accurate. The first one is just about ready for a name (will be Francine) in the Gulf of Mexico. That one will threaten the Galveston Texas region by mid-week. Another weaker storm is indicated near the southeast coast of the U.S. about a week from now. The mid-Atlantic storm mentioned would deepen east of the Caribbean region and move slowly north by about the 20th to 25th.

My local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy after some dim sunshine through cloud and drifting smoke layers which have made a late return after a week of hot weather, as a few fires in remote wilderness areas have flared back to active status. It is still quite warm but without the direct sun the high was about 27 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 10 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... cool, breezy, and showery for a couple of days, then a gradual warming trend. A little more rain likely on Saturday, and a mostly dry week thereafter.

FORECASTS

TODAY ... A band of showers will mark a cold front after which temperatures will remain rather cool despite a few sunny breaks. Winds will veer to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr after this front passes, clearing the south coast around early afternoon. Some heavier showers will develop in the colder air mass over Connacht and Ulster by afternoon, with highs only 11 to 14 C north, 14 to 17 C south.

TONIGHT ... Showers will continue but will be largely confined to the northwestern counties, breezy (northwest 40-60 km/hr) and lows around 5 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and cool with heavy showers, some thundery, in northern and western counties, trending to briefer passing showers in the south and east; highs 11 to 14 C north, 13 to 15 C south. Winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr in some exposed areas.

THURSDAY less windy but rather cool, showers dying out, sunny intervals by afternoon. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

FRIDAY after some patchy frost during the night (lows 1 to 4 C), warming up in stages during the day as winds switch to south-southwest. Some rain at times from a warm front passing through northern counties, highs by late afternoon near 17 C in south, 14 C north.
SATURDAY will be breezy and mild with intervals of rain, clearing later. Lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C.
SUNDAY variable cloud, sunny intervals and also a few showers, lows near 11 C and highs near 18 C.
The following week will bring mostly fair weather with temperatures near average rising to the low 20s at times later in the week. There are still signs of a strong hurricane forming in the central Atlantic by about two weeks from now, most likely to remain well west of Ireland moving north towards Iceland or Greenland. The trend over the past day of guidance has been somewhat erratic on this storm, one run during the day brought it closer to Ireland although it looked weaker; now it's back further west than at this time yesterday. Probably this indicates that a long interval of blocking high pressure will develop next week and could take us into the late stages of September but will the block hold this storm off? Time will tell.

Meanwhile, Francine has formed as expected off the Mexican coast and is moving steadily north to threaten the U.S. coast from Galveston to eastern Lousiana, with a possible strong hurricane landfall by Wednesday. A separate tropical disturbance is expected to form next week off the east coast and may move across Atlantic Canada. The storm for the central Atlantic comes out of the tropical waters north of South America, and latest guidance has it moving erratically north to northwest just east of Bermuda in about two weeks.

My local weather on Monday was sunny with afternoon cloud, still rather warm at about 25 C. Weak fronts are forming but have little if any rainfall associated, as it slowly cools down to near average values (for here, about 21-23 C in mid-September).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 11 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... cool, breezy, and showery at first, then a gradual warming trend. A little more rain likely on Saturday, and a mostly dry week thereafter.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and cool with heavy showers, some thundery, in northern and western counties, trending to briefer passing showers in the south and east; highs 11 to 14 C north, 13 to 15 C south. Winds occasionally northwest 50 to 80 km/hr in some exposed areas, 40 to 60 km/hr more widespread.
TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, a few showers continuing mostly in north and west, chilly, lows 3 to 6 C.
THURSDAY less windy but still rather cool, showers dying out, sunny intervals by afternoon and highs 13 to 16 C.
FRIDAY after some patchy frost during the night (lows 1 to 4 C), warming up in stages during the day as winds switch to south-southwest. Some rain at times from a warm front passing through northern counties, highs by late afternoon near 17 C in south, 14 C north.
SATURDAY will be breezy and mild with intervals of rain, clearing later. Lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C. At the present time this weak cold front appears to be losing intensity and it could produce rather sparse rainfall totals away from the northwestern counties.
SUNDAY variable cloud, sunny intervals and also a few showers, lows near 11 C and highs near 18 C.
MONDAY sunny intervals, lows near 6 C and highs near 19 C.
REST OF NEXT WEEK dry and rather warm, although a developing easterly breeze could lower daytime highs near the east coast, otherwise potential for 19-22 C.
The hurricane previously discussed for the central Atlantic in about two weeks' time is now indicated much weaker and slower to develop, partly because a fairly strong "ordinary" low takes its energy around 22nd-24th September and moves towards Ireland bringing rain then ... this scenario could easily change back to the blocking high and hurricane combination, so I am discounting it for now. Meanwhile, Hurricane Francine is gaining strength in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and will probably make a landfall in swampy coastal areas of central Louisiana around noon local time (or 1800h Irish time). Impacts will be moderate rather than severe, probably, partly due to the low population of that coastal area but the centre of the decaying tropical storm (by then) will pass near Baton Rouge and northwest of New Orleans; once again, damage potential appears minor to moderate at worst. This storm will die out near Arkansas over coming days, and the weak second tropical system is back on the maps for the southeast U.S. by about Sep 16 to 18. My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy to overcast and still a bit warmer than average at 24 C. A few showers could be seen over higher terrain but no rain fell locally.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 12 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... the cool spell will begin to moderate over the weekend and next week will be a little warmer than average again. It will stay relatively dry in the south and east, with slightly larger rainfall totals (but still only about half of normal) in the north and west. Sunshine will improve somewhat but total sunshine will be generally near or slightly above average.

FORECASTS

TODAY the blustery northwest winds will begin to ease, and with that, shower production and coverage will begin to decrease, with longer sunny intervals likely by afternoon. It will remain quite cool, highs near 13 C north and 16 C south.
TONIGHT will bring some clear intervals and a slight frost could form by about midnight in the inland south and east, as well as some central counties. Cloud moving into the northwest will hold temperatures at higher values there. Lows in most areas 1 to 4 C, about 7 C near Atlantic coasts.
FRIDAY will have a few sunny intervals in the morning as the chill eases gradually. Clouds will increase and rain will brush some parts of the north and west, as winds turn southerly. Highs 14 to 17 C.
SATURDAY variable cloud, a bit more light rain for parts of the west and north, but the front looks too weak to bring much moisture to the eastern and southern counties. Lows near 10 C and highs 16 to 18 C.
SUNDAY a few early showers clearing, sunny intervals later, lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.
MONDAY and TUESDAY will be generally dry, partly cloudy to sunny, and there will be a warming trend, especially away from the east coast as easterly breezes set in. Highs on Monday will be around 18 C but Tuesday could see low 20s in western counties at least (15-18 C east coast). This pattern will set in for several days and, like the warm spell earlier, disturbances will begin to form to the south and could threaten a few south coast areas with rain later in the week, but it may hold dry further north for several additional days.
Hurricane Francine moved inland as expected and is slowly transitioning to a weaker extratropical low. Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the tropical eastern Atlantic and would become the storm I mentioned in previous discussions, but now its evolution looks quite tame and weak; it could threaten the Azores in about ten days, possibly, but the blocking high north of Ireland will tend to drift west around then, bringing on a cooler northerly flow for Ireland, but forcing the tropical system to turn east towards Portugal. We'll be keeping a close eye on developments but that is the latest twist in the road.

My local weather has now cooled off enough that it is no longer "very warm" but it was pleasant enough at 20 C, with more cloud than sun. A little light rain fell in the early morning hours but it stayed dry in the afternoon.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 13 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Gradually warming to near average temperatures by Monday and a little above normal most of next week. Rather dry in general, any rain likely to be in west and north until quite late in the week. Sunshine will average about normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will have a few bright intervals in the south and east, with cloud followed by a few outbreaks of rather light rain in the west and north (3-7 mm expected there). Highs near 14 C north, to about 17 C southeast.
TONIGHT variable cloud, patchy drizzle in north, lows near 10 C.
SATURDAY rather cloudy but a few sunny intervals are possible in east and near south coast. Patchy light rain will return to western counties and persist into the overnight hours in parts of west and north, probably not reaching most of the east or south. Highs around 15 to 18 C.
SUNDAY variable cloud, becoming sunny later, isolated showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.
MONDAY some scatter in guidance with some sources suggesting a potential for warm frontal rain, others saying it will be a largely dry day with cloudy intervals as winds back into the southeast. In either case, lows around 8 C and highs around 17 C.
TUESDAY some hazy sunshine, warmer in western and some central counties, as a moderate east-southeast breeze sets in. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs near 17 C east to 22 C west.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY, fairly similar but with increasing threats of cloud or rain approaching the south coast as time goes by. Temperatures possibly a bit above average 18 to 21 C daytime.
The prognosis for the slowly developing tropical system now labelled Tropical Depression Seven is that it now could break through any blocking and join up with an already vigorous frontal system moving east across the Atlantic around 22nd to 24th (so into the final week of September) ... as this keeps changing, almost any option is plausible at this point, we'll keep watching, the system takes most of a week just to develop into a rather weak tropical storm before getting a bit more energetic approaching the Azores eventually. Also the southeast U.S. tropical storm potential is still considerable around 17th-18th (a separate event that is probably part two of Francine's energy now looping around near Memphis, TN).

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a few raindrops but nothing measurable, and a cooler high near 16 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 14 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS will continue as advertised, gradually warmer, fairly dry away from the northwest and even there not particularly wet, and reasonable amounts of sunshine, likely to be good totals next week after a rather cloudy weekend (some improvement by Sunday afternoon).

FORECASTS

TODAY mostly cloudy, a few brighter intervals east and south, patchy light rain mostly confined to Connacht and west Ulster, sometimes spreading into midlands also. Highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT a little rain at times in east, fog patches central, clearing skies near Atlantic coasts later. Lows near 8 C.

SUNDAY variable cloud, sunny breaks becoming more widespread by afternoon. Patchy light rain showers in some places ending around mid-day. Highs 17 to 19 C.

MONDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, slight chance of isolated showers but most places remaining dry. Lows near 8 C and highs near 20 C.

TUESDAY light to moderate southeast breezes will cause eastern counties to remain a bit cooler than western, in a hazy but sunny regime, lows near 7 C and highs near 22 C west, 17 C east.

The rest of the week will be similar with a slight increase in cloud at times near south coast. Some dense fog patches will develop towards dawn and could linger to around 0900h in places. Lows will be 5 to 8 C and highs similar to Tuesday (17 to 22 C).
Towards weekend of 21st-22nd, increasing cloud, some rain at times spreading into south and west at first. By about 23rd-24th, quite windy as an Atlantic frontal system arrives. It may or may not contain remnants of Gordon, now a named storm in the south central part of the North Atlantic. Some guidance predicts Gordon will eventually turn north to the west of the Azores and could be a minimal hurricane there, before being swept up by the Atlantic low to its north. This does not yet look too ominous, about half as strong as Ophelia and on a less direct track. It could also amount to even less than that ... but there remains a slight risk of a more intense outcome.
It may stay fairly unsettled after this hybrid system passes, and eventually another tropical system could arrive in the eastern Atlantic from origins south of Cuba about a week from now.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy with patches of blue sky, not often aligning with the sun but it was a bit warmer anyway at 21 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 15 September __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... warmer next week, hazy sunshine fairly frequent, generally dry after today's drizzly light rainfalls.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out overcast with drizzle or light rain in some parts of the east and south. Quite gradually, this cloud will begin to break up during the mid-day to afternoon hours, with highs near 18 C.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and mild with lows 7 to 10 C.
MONDAY some hazy sunshine, warm, more cloud likely near south and west coasts where damp and foggy at times. Highs 17 to 21 C.
TUESDAY to FRIDAY will bring some very pleasant autumn weather and highs near 22 C in western and central counties, 17 C east coast due to weak to moderate southeast breezes. Hazy sunshine will dominate. Nights could turn rather misty or foggy with lows 6 to 10 degrees.
Around next weekend, an increase in cloud but no large changes in the regime, temperatures will stay in a similar range. A few light showers could reach parts of the south but more active weather will arrive from the west around Tuesday 24th.
Latest guidance seems to reduce potential for any of the three tropical systems being tracked over next week or two, and Gordon may not survive long enough to be a factor, but even if it does the Atlantic storm in place to merge with it would be similar if a bit stronger.

My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy and we had a bit of rain and thunder this evening, highs near 19 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 16 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... warm and dry this week, temperatures 2 to 3 deg above average, little to no rainfall, generous amounts of sunshine although some coastal areas could see patchy low cloud from sea fog dissipating.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring intervals of hazy sunshine and patchy low cloud drifting around mostly near coasts by later this morning. Highs will reach 21 or 22 C in sunshine, and 17 to 19 C where it stays a bit cloudier.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear with lows 7 to 9 C.
TUESDAY to FRIDAY expect little change to this pleasant weather, highs each day in a similar range of 17 to 22 C, and overnight lows 5 to 8 C.
By late Friday into SATURDAY an increase in cloud is likely across the south with small amounts of light rain possible near south coast. It will probably remain unchanged from during the week further north. By SUNDAY, continued warm and dry for most. Highs on the weekend 16 to 20 C.
Next week, increasing cloud by Monday 23rd, becoming rather windy and eventually wet as an Atlantic frontal system, possibly having swept up remnants of feeble Gordon near Azores, arrives. Several more frontal systems could follow in a more disturbed but still quite warm pattern. Temperatures could remain near 20 C to nearly the end of the month, and might then fall back to around 15 or so in a more westerly to northwesterly interval.
Gordon is back to being a weak tropical depression. It continues to drift west-northwest in the subtropical Atlantic. Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (would be Helene if named a tropical storm later today) is forming near the Carolina coast and will drift inland by Tuesday bringing heavy rainfalls but moderate winds no stronger than 90 km/hr.

My local weather started cloudy but turned sunny for the afternoon, with highs around 17 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 17 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... warm and dry for about a week, some light rain at times by weekend near south coast, generous amounts of sunshine, then a more unsettled week following that to end of month.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring more hazy sunshine and warm highs of 18 to 23 degrees, warmest inland west and central counties.
TONIGHT clear intervals with a full moon, lows 5 to 10 C.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY little change, warm and hazy, sunny intervals, highs each day in range of 18 to 23 C, overnight lows around 5 to 10 C.
WEEKEND will probably see more cloud in southern counties, and a chance of light rain at times around Saturday afternoon to early Sunday, but it may remain dry further north. Highs around 19 or 20 C and overnight lows near 12 C.
MONDAY will continue warm and hazy, increasing cloud from west, lows near 12 C and highs 18 to 21 C.
From about TUESDAY 24th to end of month, stronger southwest winds at times, outbreaks of rain, and temperatures generally in the mid-teens.
Gordon remains a very weak system but most guidance indicates it could strengthen slightly while moving north then northeast late in the week and over the weekend, however, it is not expected to make a very energetic merger with jet stream-driven disturbances further north and some guidance shows it failing to catch a ride at all, just dissipating west of Portugal. Earlier, potential tropical cyclone 8 moved inland over NC and SC bringing heavy rains but not enough tropical organization to warrant a name. Towards the end of this month several hurricanes are indicated forming in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean regions.

My local weather on Monday was sunny without a cloud in the sky, and highs around 20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 18 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... warm and dry to weekend, increasing cloud and some outbreaks of rain in south by Saturday-Sunday, further unsettled spells in following week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring more hazy sunshine and warm temperatures with highs 19 to 23 C.
TONIGHT clear with a few clouds, patchy dense fog will form in low lying areas. Lows 5 to 10 C.
THURSDAY more sunshine and a bit of cloud at times, warm, highs 18 to 22 C.
FRIDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, lows 4 to 8 C and highs 17 to 21 C.
SATURDAY increasing cloud but still some good sunny spells in central and northern counties, a few scattered showers may develop later in the day across the south. Lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C.
SUNDAY some outbreaks of rain in south spreading at times into central counties, 5 to 15 mm expected, locally heavier inland southeast. Staying dry with some sunny breaks further north. Lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, warm, lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C.
TUESDAY windy with rain and temperatures falling later in the day after highs 16 to 19 C.
The guidance for the rest of the week is quite scattered from source to source, some have a considerably colder pattern after Wed 25th suppressing the storm track into France, and others just keep Atlantic disturbances passing at regular intervals.
Gordon has limped into the south central Atlantic basin now and may redevelop slightly over coming days, but is still expected to be swept aside by its encounter with travelling lows further north; remnants could eventually reach southern Spain. The remnants of potential tropical cyclone 8 have seeded a new low approaching Long Island and a wet spell lies ahead, but this low will then travel towards Greenland.

My local weather on Tuesday was again sunny with just a few clouds, and a high near 21 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 19 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... the warm, dry spell will end gradually over the weekend, with rain moving into parts of the south later Saturday into Sunday. It could stay dry a few more days further north. Temperatures will begin a gradual decline towards below average readings by about Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with a few clouds near some coasts, and warm, highs 18 to 23 C.
TONIGHT partly cloudy with clear intervals and widespread mist or fog towards dawn, lows 5 to 10 C.
FRIDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, warm, highs 18 to 22 C.
SATURDAY increasing cloud, some outbreaks of rain by afternoon or evening in southern counties, lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 18 C, moderate east winds developing.
SUNDAY further outbreaks of rain in the south ending by afternoon, some sunny intervals in northern counties, lows 8 to 12 C and highs 15 to 18 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, chance of some light rain at times in southwest, lows near 8 C and highs 14 to 17 C.
TUESDAY into WEDNESDAY, a frontal system will approach the south and could bring heavy rain in some areas. Strong east winds backing to northerly by late Wednesday. Turning cooler, temperatures steady near 15 C on Tuesday and 12 C on Wednesday.
A rather cold spell is quite likely following that rainfall, and there could be further cold rainfalls across the south before this colder interval runs its course (duration at this point difficult to estimate).
Gordon ceased to be a named storm entity earlier and remnants are drifting north, possibly it will redevelop but still looks like a minor piece of the overall pattern by Tuesday. Guidance is showing potential for a major hurricane to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico later next week; that one could be a damaging event in some part of the coast between northwest Florida and eastern Louisiana.

My local weather was sunny for most of the day on Wednesday, turning cloudier by mid-afternoon, high near 20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 20 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... the warm, dry and sunny interval will end today for most, and over the weekend in parts of the north as rain spreads into the southern and central counties by Saturday evening, lasting into part of Sunday. Monday will be dry in most areas then another rainfall event will begin on Tuesday, ending Wednesday with the arrival of much cooler air from the north, leading to below normal temperatures by 2 to 4 degrees.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny and warm, with a few cloudy intervals developing in the south and east by later in the day. Highs 17 to 20 C east, 20 to 24 C west.
TONIGHT increasing cloud except for clear intervals persisting in the north, lows 8 to 11 C.
SATURDAY mostly cloudy across the south and partly to mostly cloudy in central counties, longer sunny spells persisting in the north, highs 15 to 19 C, warmest inland north.
SUNDAY early morning rain could be heavy at times, in southern counties, light rain may spread into central counties, but by afternoon, a clearing trend will develop. Lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 18 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, some sunny breaks, light northeast or variable winds, lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C.
TUESDAY increasing cloud, moderate east winds developing followed by rain spreading into most areas by late in the day. Lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.
WEDNESDAY rain ending, windy with showers, colder, lows near 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C.
THURSDAY to WEEKEND of 28-29 September will be unseasonably cool and breezy with passing showers or outbreaks of rain, hail could mix in on higher terrain, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 12 C.
Another rainfall could develop across the south by Sunday 29th and it may stay quite chilly into early October before warming up a bit around the second week.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny with cloudy intervals, and the high was around 20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 21 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... some dry spells will continue in the north but rain will become more frequent elsewhere as temperatures gradually fall back to near and then below normal values. Rather cloudy in comparison to most of last week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks developing in the west and north. Spotty light rain at first this afternoon will turn heavier tonight in the south and east. Highs near 15 C under persistent cloud in south and east, to 20 C in sunny spots further west and north.

TONIGHT rain and a few isolated thunderstorms will move into parts of the east and south, lows near 10 C. Partly cloudy but staying dry further north, lows near 8 C.

SUNDAY rain will ease gradually by afternoon except in a few parts of west Munster, and it will be rather cool under persistent cloud with highs 13 to 16 C. A few brighter spots further north (west Ulster in particular) could reach 18 C.

MONDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, light winds, lows near 7 C and highs 17 to 20 C. It could turn a bit colder in parts of Ulster with low cloud and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY increasing cloud followed by rain across parts of the south, scattered showers by evening and overnight further north, rather cool. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY rain will slowly pull away from the south towards Britain where it could turn quite heavy. A colder air mass will push in from the north bringing variable amounts of cloud and a few showers. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be unseasonably cool with variable cloud amounts and scattered outbreaks of light rain, possibly mixing with hail or even sleet on high ground. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 12 C.

The weekend of 28-29 September looks a bit milder but temperatures will only recover to the 13-16 C range. Another outbreak of chilly rain is possible before a milder trend sets in towards the end of the week (30 Sep- 4 Oct).
Long range guidance is still indicating potential for a fairly strong hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico towards end of September; its remnants would likely reach the far northern Atlantic by early October and could be part of the warming trend then for Ireland. More tropical activity is also indicated, staying in lower latitudes mostly.

My local weather on Friday was sunny, breezy and rather cool with highs near 17 C. Boston had its first rainfall in three weeks, and New York City has seen only 6 mm all month, in one of the driest months on record in the U.S. northeast; temperatures have been near normal but it has warmed up to values in the high 20s recently. It has also been quite dry around my area although not as far from average.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 22 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... some dry spells will continue in the north but rain will become more frequent elsewhere as temperatures gradually fall back to near and then below normal values. Rather cloudy in comparison to most of last week.

FORECASTS

TODAY rain across parts of the southern and central regions will ease gradually by afternoon except in a few parts of west Munster, and it will be rather cool under persistent cloud with highs 13 to 16 C. A few brighter spots further north (west Ulster in particular) could reach 18 C.

TONIGHT a few showers may linger near south coast, otherwise generally dry under partly cloudy skies, lows 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, light winds, and highs 17 to 20 C. It could turn a bit colder in parts of Ulster with low cloud and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY increasing cloud followed by rain across parts of the south, scattered showers by evening and overnight further north, rather cool. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY rain will slowly pull away from the south towards Britain where it could turn quite heavy. A colder air mass will push in from the north bringing variable amounts of cloud and a few showers. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be unseasonably cool with variable cloud amounts and scattered outbreaks of light rain, possibly mixing with hail or even sleet on high ground. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 12 C.

The weekend of 28-29 September looks a bit milder but temperatures will only recover to the 13-16 C range. Another outbreak of chilly rain is likely around Sunday before a milder trend sets in towards the end of the week (30 Sep- 4 Oct).

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and rather cool, after traces of frost in low-lying areas the high was around 16 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 23 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Turning cooler in the next three days, very cool later this week, warming up in stages after that and quite warm for the first few days of October. Some heavier rains will accompany these changes, especially across the south. (Sunday's rains underperformed in Ireland, very few places saw even 2 mm, but parts of south-central England saw 40-50 mm which was expected, the western extension of this retrograde system seemed to lack much energy ... I don't think that will be as much of an issue for later rainfall potential in systems moving from west or northwest)

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring mostly cloudy skies and a few residual drizzly showers in the south. Best chance for any sunny breaks would likely be around north midlands and west Ulster, Connacht. Highs will be around 16 C.
TONIGHT cloudy with a few clear breaks, lows 6 to 9 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, an increase in higher cloud (possibly obscured by lower cloud decks) as a disorganized low approaches from southwest, rain should hold off until evening for most. Highs around 17 C.
WEDNESDAY outbreaks of rain, heaviest in Munster and south Leinster (10-15 mm), more showery with passage of a cold front in northern and later central regions, lows near 7 C and highs 12 C north to 14 C south.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY breezy to windy and very chilly for late September, temperatures will struggle to get much past 10 C and could fall to near frost ranges at night (2-5 C for most places due to cloudy conditions). A few outbreaks of rain with hail possible, and would not be surprised if sleet or snow fell on peaks as freezing levels will be near 1200 meters. Winds northerly, later backing to northwesterly, 40 to 70 km/hr adding a chill. A few brighter intervals would be most likely in lee of higher terrain such as southeast coast.
SATURDAY will remain rather cool but with winds light and variable for a time, and a slight increase in daytime highs after possibly a frosty start, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 11 to 15 C.
SUNDAY, an Atlantic low that fed off the remains of weak tropical storm Gordon's moisture in regions west of the Azores will move across Ireland and it could be quite a strong rainfall producer with gusty winds on the flanks, exact track will determine what if any strong wind potential will develop. Temperatures in the 10 to 13 C range with this stormy weather.
After that passes, the flow returns to a westerly direction and air masses will warm up to the 17-20 C range in early October with potential for some active frontal systems in the mix as well as one or two day dry intervals. Another tropical remnant from a storm not yet formed in the central Atlantic could be coming along near the second weekend from now (5-6 Oct).
Meanwhile, it looks very likely that Hurricane Helene will form off the Yucatan Peninsula and reach a strong cat-3 to cat-4 intensity in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, by Thursday night, making a landfall in northwest Florida by late Friday. Remnants of Helene will probably circle around similar to Francine's dying stages. A third tropical system is also indicated for the central Atlantic after the one already mentioned, and it could be a stronger storm also (with some potential to reach western Europe around 8-10 October).

My local weather was pleasant on Sunday with high clouds parting for a brief sunny and warmer spell allowing highs to reach 21 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 24 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... cloudy and cool, rather wet especially across southern counties. Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below average. Rainfalls will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal in south, near normal further north.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few light showers, mostly in northern counties. Highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT cloudy with light rain spreading gradually into the southwestern counties, scattered light showers elsewhere. Lows 5 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY occasional rain turning heavier across some southern counties, variable cloud further north with showers. Rather cool, highs 13 to 15 C. Some outbreaks of heavy rain by Wednesday night in the southeastern counties, 20-30 mm potential. About 5 to 15 mm for most other regions.

THURSDAY rain ending by mid-day in the south and east, turning unseasonably cool, windy at times (northerly 40-60 km/hr), and further outbreaks of rain, with some hail and thunder, as temperatures stall in the range of 8 to 12 C. Quite chilly by late afternoon and evening (7 to 10 C).

FRIDAY variable cloud, but longer sunny breaks for most areas, still a few heavy showers possible, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 9 to 13 C.
SATURDAY a little milder, variable cloud, light rain at times in west and north, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
SUNDAY windy with outbreaks of heavy rain possible. If this weather system slows down or tracks a bit further north, southern counties could see an interval of very strong southwest winds by Sunday night, but this is not confirmed yet as guidance is spread on the track. Temperatures will be rather cool especially during intervals of rain, in the range of 12 to 14 C.
MONDAY rain tapering to showers, windy at times, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.
A slightly milder week will follow, but with further outbreaks of rain likely.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (will become Helene) continues its gradual formation south of Cuba. It is still expected to become a hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night and will make a landfall in northwest Florida by Friday. Two tropical systems will form in the central Atlantic in the next two weeks, the first looks rather weak but the second one is currently shown as a strengthening hurricane west of the Azores by around 10 Oct.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and warm with highs around 24 C. A half moon is currently rising with Jupiter quite bright also rising ahead of it.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 25 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS will continue cool, wet (especially in south) and rather cloudy.

FORECASTS

TODAY some outbreaks of rain across the south will make slow progress further north until late afternoon. Variable cloud with isolated showers in central and northern counties, highs 13 to 15 C, generally light northeast winds picking up to a moderate northerly at times in exposed coastal areas.
TONIGHT rain will continue across the south and will drift further north into most of Leinster and east Ulster, with an interval of patchy light rain in other areas. Lows 5 to 8 C.
THURSDAY some unseasonably cool air will push south into Ulster and Connacht, for a time the somewhat milder air in the south and east will hold this back but the weak mild sector will collapse taking the rain with it towards Britain by afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to get much past 10 C in the north, and if they manage to reach 12-14 C in the south, will fall back to near 10 C by later afternoon. Winds will pick up steadily, becoming northerly 40 to 60 km/hr by mid-day and afternoon. Some embedded thunderstorms with hail possible.
FRIDAY will remain very cool and breezy with a few more sunny breaks in the mix, as well as passing showers, a few rather heavy with hail. Lows 1 to 4 C and highs 11 to 14 C.
SATURDAY will moderate somewhat with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, isolated showers, but risk of frost inland south and east. Lows 1 to 5 C, highs 12 to 16 C.
SUNDAY will see another rainfall event concentrated in the south, with moderate east winds backing to northeast 40-60 km/hr over much of the country. The risk of strong southwest winds appears to have been ended by a southward shift in this low's track; those winds will strike southwest England and northern France. Temperatures will be steady 11 to 14 C.
Next week looks only slightly warmer now, and there could be some rain at times.
Helene has formed and is expected to become a hurricane very soon, with potential to be a major hurricane by late Wednesday and most of Thursday as it approaches northwest Florida.

My local weather was once again sunny and very warm with highs near 25 C. Clear at present with a chance to see aurora borealis and a rising half moon around midnight, so heading out now. Our warm spell ends with a sharp cold front later Wednesday but further warm spells seem to be coming our way next week too.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 26 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... cool and wet, especially in southern counties, limited amounts of sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become breezy to windy as colder air filters into western and central counties. Rain will persist for part of the morning in east Ulster and Leinster, becoming heavy around Down and Louth at times. Further west, some outbreaks of rain in passing showers. Temperatures will remain steady in range of 9 to 12 C except may rise briefly to 14-16 C in parts of the southeast before the colder air covers all regions later today. Winds increasing to north-northeast 40 to 60 km/hr adding a significant chill in exposed locations.
TONIGHT will continue breezy and cool with passing showers, becoming sleety on higher terrain. Lows 1 to 4 C.
FRIDAY will be somewhat brighter but still quite chilly, with passing showers including some with hail and thunder. Winds northwest 30 to 50 km/hr. Highs 11 to 14 C.
SATURDAY a mixture of cloud and sun, showers brief and more isolated, winds backing to westerly and more moderate too. Lows around -1 to +4 C with frost possible inland south and east. Highs 13 to 16 C.
SUNDAY increasing cloud early morning leading to rain and, near south coast, strong winds at times. Lows 7 to 9 C and highs 13 to 15 C.
MONDAY rain tapering to showers, cool and breezy (northwest 40 to 60 km/hr), lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.
Not much change in this regime is foreseen. Tropical Storm Isaac formed in the western Atlantic and is going to attempt to follow the Sunday-Monday low on a similar track, but current guidance shows cooler air from the far north cutting off its eastward progress near the Azores, forcing it to circle back towards Newfoundland while the cooler air floods south for later next week across Ireland and indeed most of western Europe also.

Hurricane Helene is slowly strengthening at 0100h Central time and is expected to reach at least cat-3, possibly cat-4 intensity before making a landfall this evening local time, south of Florida's state capital, Tallahassee. From there it will push quickly north into west-central Georgia bringing unusually strong winds far inland and torrential downpours in the 200-300 mm range. Storm surge will be considerable at the coast although large parts of the likely impact zone are swampy wildlife refuges and sparsely populated, with a few small towns at risk of major wind and surge damage. Heavily populated west coast of Florida including Tampa Bay are also at risk of a damaging storm surge but should avoid wind damage south of about Cedar Key.
Another weak tropical storm looks likely in the south central Atlantic next week, amounting to very little, but a stronger one is depicted becoming a hurricane east of Bermuda by about 10-12 Oct; this one has no certain track outcome as it meanders around between Bermuda and the Azores. If it ever becomes part of the European weather picture it would likely be towards mid-October.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly sunny and warm (24 C) with strong south winds until a cold front passed around dinner time, this brought some showers and isolated storms but very little rain fell here, and the gusty winds are now more moderate.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 27 September, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... cool, wet across the south, slight improvements by middle of next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cool and breezy with a few passing showers, local hail and thunder possible especially in north and west. Winds northwesterly 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with local frost, lows -1 to +4 C.

SATURDAY some sunny breaks but cloudy at times, with isolated showers and also less windy, highs 12 to 16 C. Rain by evening across the south and west.

SUNDAY intervals of heavy rain, moderate northeast winds 40 to 60 km/hr, possibly 60 to 80 near south coast. Lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

MONDAY gradual clearing, a few remnant isolated showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 2 C and highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY increasing cloud, rain by evening or overnight into Thursday in west. Lows near 2 C and highs near 17 C.
Unsettled due to remnants of distant Isaac (about to be a hurricane for a day or two and then an extratropical low eventually moving into regions between Iceland and Faeroes) interacting with another Atlantic low.

About two weeks from now, a stronger tropical system may be bearing down on Ireland but it's way too early to be very sure about this, meanwhile, Helene moved inland as a cat-4 recently and is plowing north through central Georgia still at hurricane (cat-1) intensity.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly cloudy but dry and pleasant enough at 17 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 28 September, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... cool, wet across the south, improvements by middle of next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some sunny breaks but also rather cloudy at times, with isolated showers mostly in Ulster, and also less windy, highs 12 to 16 C.
TONIGHT rain by evening across the south and west spreading to most other regions, some parts of far north dry. Lows 7 to 9 C.
SUNDAY intervals of heavy rain across parts of south, rain more moderate and intermittent in central regions and a few parts of the north could stay relatively dry, all in moderate east-southeast backing to northeast winds 40 to 60 km/hr, possibly increasing to 60 to 80 near south coast; highs near 13 C.
MONDAY partly cloudy to overcast, a few remnant isolated showers, one band of more persistent showers feeding into west central counties for part of the afternoon; lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.
TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 2 C and highs near 16 C.
WEDNESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 0 C and highs near 16 C.
THURSDAY increasing cloud, rain by evening or overnight into Friday in west. Lows near 2 C and highs near 17 C.
Unsettled with intermittent rain for several days after the dry interval, temperatures in a similar range but milder at night; will be watching for possible post-tropical storm activity by Wed 9 or Thurs 10 Oct.

Helene died out as a tropical storm but not until after it brought widespread flood devastation to Georgia, South and North Carolina and Tennessee. Damage along the Florida coast is also considerable but fortunately landfall was in a very sparsely populated wildlife refuge shoreline. Isaac is a small cat-1 hurricane unlikely to trouble anyone on its present course. Joyce is a weak tropical storm not predicted to intensify much before dying out in a week or so around the central Atlantic. Two more storms (would be Kirk and Leslie) are predicted. If the eastern Atlantic candidate fires off first, it will be Kirk, becoming a powerful hurricane west of the Azores by around 4-5 October. That one could take a run at northern Scotland and bring strong winds to Ireland in its post-tropical phase. If the second candidate in the Caribbean develops later, it will be Leslie and could be a cat-1 or cat-2 storm impacting the central Gulf coast about the same time. (there is always the chance they form in opposite order, or some third as yet not indicated storm intervenes in the naming sequence). So for now it's Kirk-watch possibly Leslie-watch. Confidence on an eventual significant impact is of course no better than low-moderate at this time range.

My local weather was once again near-perfect, we have had a really good run in the past week, sunny and 24 C. What's left of Helene is an area of moderate rain in western Kentucky and Tennessee but as mentioned it's a dire situation in areas further east that saw up to a half-year's worth of rain (800 mm) in the past three days from a stalled front ahead of Helene, then severe wind gusts and more heavy rain from Helene. Parts of the I-40 highway between NC and TN are washed out and bridges destroyed with similar damage on other highways; it will be a disaster on at least the scale of the BC Nov 2021 event but much larger in terms of human casualties which are already known to be several dozen, but feared to be several hundred once isolated mountain valley areas are searched. Also power is out for millions of residents of the southeast with varying estimates of how long that will continue.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 29 September, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... cool, wet across the south, improvements by middle of next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY intervals of heavy rain across parts of south, rain more moderate and intermittent in central regions and a few parts of the north could stay relatively dry, all in moderate east-southeast backing to northeast winds 40 to 60 km/hr, possibly increasing to 60 to 80 near south coast; highs near 13 C.

TONIGHT rain tapering to drizzle as winds gradually ease to northerly 30 to 50 km/hr, lows 6 to 10 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy to overcast, a few remnant isolated showers, one band of more persistent showers feeding into west central counties for part of the afternoon; highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 2 C and highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 0 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY increasing cloud, rain by evening or overnight into Friday in west. Lows near 2 C and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY cloudy with occasional rain, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY windy, showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

Unsettled with intermittent rain for several days after the dry interval, temperatures in a similar range but milder at night; will be watching for possible post-tropical storm activity by Wed 9 or Thurs 10 Oct as potential cyclone Kirk is still expected to arrive from near Azores.

My local weather was sunny with patchy high cloud and very warm with a high near 27 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 30 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Temperatures near average, dry for a few days after a few showers today, then frequent rainfall from Friday on, eventually leading to a near normal weekly total. Sunshine will improve just for the dry interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY partly cloudy to overcast, rain continuing in west Ulster and spreading east, affecting parts of north Connacht and Leinster. Also one band of more persistent showers by afternoon feeding into west central counties; some other locations becoming partly cloudy and then sunny; highs near 15 C.

TONIGHT gradual clearing, a few isolated showers in west and north. Lows 2 to 5 C.

TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, and highs 14 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, lows 0 to 4 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY increasing cloud, rain by evening or overnight into Friday in west. Lows near 2 C and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY cloudy with occasional rain, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY windy, showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

Unsettled with intermittent rain for several days after the dry interval, temperatures in a similar range (8 to 13 C) and milder at night; will be watching for possible post-tropical storm activity by Wed 9 or Thurs 10 Oct as potential cyclone Kirk could still arrive from near Azores, guidance is very spread out after it reaches the central Atlantic, so overall probability of it low. A second weaker tropical storm will likely trail Kirk, and could take name Leslie before any new Caribbean activity starts in about a week.

My local weather was sunny with cloudy intervals, windy and cooler at 14 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 1 October, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Temperatures near average, dry for a few days, then frequent rainfall from Friday on, eventually leading to a near normal weekly total. Sunshine will improve just for the dry interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY sunny with cloudy intervals, and highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT clear to partly cloudy, lows 0 to 4 C. Frost possible in a few central counties.

WEDNESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, lows 0 to 4 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY increasing cloud, rain by evening or overnight into Friday in west. Lows near 2 C and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY cloudy with occasional rain, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY windy, showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

Unsettled with intermittent rain for several days after the dry interval, temperatures in a similar range (8 to 13 C) and milder at night; will be watching for possible post-tropical storm activity by Wed 9 or Thurs 10 Oct as potential cyclone Kirk could still arrive from near Azores, guidance is trending towards a track towards France or Spain, with Ireland receiving a glancing blow, stronger northeast winds for southern Britain, but there is plenty of time for this to change.

A second weaker tropical storm will likely trail Kirk, and could take name Leslie before any new Caribbean activity starts in about a week.

My local weather was sunny with clouds spreading in later in the day, cool with a high near 14 C.