Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 3 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, rainfall will be heaviest in Connacht and least in south Leinster, and in general it will be rather cloudy and breezy, sometimes unsettled and in one or two places stormy.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few outbreaks of rain and also some brighter intervals, winds southwest 40 to 60 km/hr, and highs near 19 C west, 21 C east.
TONIGHT will be overcast and quite mild, lows 11 to 14 C.
SUNDAY will start out breezy to windy with a band of rain gradually spreading into Atlantic coastal counties where it could turn quite heavy by afternoon. Localized flooding is possible in Connemara and some other parts of the west. This rain will take quite a while to overspread all eastern counties so there, it could be generally dry with bursts of rain by late afternoon and evening. Winds south to southwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs 18 to 21 C.
MONDAY breezy and partly cloudy with passing showers, lows near 10 C and highs 18 to 20 C.
TUESDAY intervals of light rain, breezy, lows near 11 C and highs near 19 C.
WEDNESDAY rather warm and humid, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows near 12 C and highs near 21 C.
This rather unsettled pattern with occasional brief blustery frontal passages will likely continue to about the weekend of 10th-11th and the mid-month period could turn a bit cooler.

My local weather on Friday was hazy and hot with some intervals of acrid forest fire smoke blowing in from the south, but that cleared away by afternoon; the high was around 35 C. Still watching for a tropical storm to develop near the southeast coast of the U.S. early next week; its remnants will likely be passing near Ireland some time late next week if it survives that long.
Enjoy the long weekend, we have one going here also.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 4 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, rainfall will be heaviest in Connacht (near twice normal values) and least in south Leinster (just an average weekly amount), and in general it will be rather cloudy and breezy, sometimes unsettled and in one or two places stormy.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out breezy to windy with a band of rain gradually spreading into Atlantic coastal counties where it could turn quite heavy by afternoon. Localized flooding is possible in Connemara and some other parts of the west (30-60 mm possible around Newport to Clifden). This rain will take most of tonight and Monday to overspread all eastern counties so that in many areas of the south and east, it could be generally dry with a few bursts of rain by late afternoon and evening. Winds increasing at times to south to southwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT continued rather warm and humid, further bursts of heavy rain mostly in western and northern counties, with lows 13 to 16 C.

MONDAY breezy and partly cloudy with passing showers, some continuing to be rather heavy in west and north, highs 18 to 20 C.

TUESDAY variable cloud, intervals of light rain, breezy, lows near 11 C and highs near 19 C.

WEDNESDAY rather warm and humid, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows near 12 C and highs 19 to 21 C. This rather unsettled pattern with occasional brief blustery frontal passages will likely continue into the weekend of 10th-11th and the mid-month period could turn a bit cooler but will continue to be quite unsettled.

My local weather on Saturday was hazy and hot with more intervals of forest fire smoke spreading from fires to our south and also northeast (wind patterns are quite variable in this hot spell), and the high was around 37 C. Tropical storm Debby has formed west of the Florida Keys and will be near minimal hurricane intensity when it makes a landfall around northwest Florida on Tuesday. It now appears likely to meander around in the southeastern U.S., energizing other non-tropical lows on the east coast. All of this activity will be moving along in the jet stream across the central Atlantic in about a week to ten days from now.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 5 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS.. Rather cloudy, temperatures near average or slightly above, further rainfalls close to average also, bearing in mind impacts of very recent 30-40 mm amounts in west are going to be felt today.

FORECASTS

TODAY bands of heavier rain will finally begin to move more rapidly east and weaken; the result will be 3-5 mm rainfalls in most places and about 10-20 mm more in saturated areas of northwest. Partly cloudy to overcast and rather breezy at times, southwest 40-60 km/hr. Highs 18 to 21 C.
TONIGHT a few showers, partly cloudy to overcast, lows near 12 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, passing showers, highs near 19 C.
WEDNESDAY increasing cloud, a spell of rain likely by late afternoon or evening at least across southern counties, lows near 12 C and highs 19 to 21 C.
THURSDAY warm and humid, outbreaks of rain more persistent in north, lows near 14 C and highs 20 to 22 C.
FRIDAY variable cloud, breezy, isolated showers, lows near 13 C and highs near 20 C.
SATURDAY rain at times, highs near 19 C.
The unsettled pattern is likely to continue into the following week.

My local weather cooled off slightly thanks to stubborn higher cloud until mid-afternoon, high was about 28 C. It is still warm and rather humid this evening with a few thunderstorms to our north, but we have not had any rain here so far despite quite frequent rain showers to our south and east all day. Meanwhile, now Hurricane Debby is bearing down on northern Florida's west coast, and its future track this week is somewhat uncertain; most guidance brings a remnant tropical storm feature up the Atlantic coast into southern New England but the U.S. leading model (GFS) continues to show a westward drift after 48-72 hours taking remnants into Alabama. Instead of an east coast tropical storm, it shows a regular low sucking a lot of moisture and energy out of the remnant storm, so either way, the northeast U.S. eventually would see substantial rainfalls, but a more immediate concern is what NHC calls "potential catastrophic flooding" in Georgia and South Carolina on Monday into Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 6 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS.. Rather cloudy, temperatures near average or slightly above, further rainfalls close to average also.

FORECASTS

TODAY variable cloud, passing showers, highs near 19 C.
TONIGHT partly cloudy, brief showers, lows 10 to 12 C.
WEDNESDAY increasing cloud, a spell of rain likely by late afternoon or evening at least across southern counties, lows near 12 C and highs 19 to 21 C.
THURSDAY warm and humid, outbreaks of rain followed by showers and brighter intervals, lows near 14 C and highs 20 to 22 C.
FRIDAY variable cloud, breezy, isolated showers, lows near 13 C and highs near 20 C.
SATURDAY rain at times, highs near 19 C.
SUNDAY partly cloudy, showers, highs near 19 C.
The unsettled pattern is likely to continue into the following week with temperatures generally a bit cooler (16 to 19 C).

My local weather on Monday was mostly sunny and very warm with highs near 30 C. Storms were moving past us to the south during the late afternoon with distant rumbles of thunder, and another band of storms is now located about 100 km north of us. Severe storms hit the Calgary region during the late afternoon with large hail in places. Meanwhile, Debby has moved across north Florida and southeast Georgia and is about to enter a slight re-intensification stage over the coastal Atlantic waters east of Georgia; eventually it will drift back inland near southern South Carolina and remnants will drift north up the east coast, taking about three days to clear away past New York and Boston, where they expect about 150-250 mm of rain. Top ten August monthly rainfalls at NYC are in the 225 mm to 275 mm range with the exception of very wet 2011 which saw over 450 mm.

M.T. Cranium

7 Aug 2024 _ 2330

Unexpected power failure knocked us off-line at 0620 and we were just reconnected … I was just starting usual forecast routine … given late aspects, will just reboot forecasts at 0700 if we stay online (tree fell on a line but not very windy so possibly not wx-related).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 8 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

Apologies for not being able to post a forecast yesterday, a power failure hit just around forecast prep time (at 0620h your time, 2220h Tues evening my time) and our power stayed out until mid-afternoon so by then it was pointless to post, also it appeared that the previous forecast was running okay so, anyway, we are back at it now, apparently a tree fell on a line somewhere in the region, winds were not all that gusty so I'm not sure what caused it.

TRENDS continue to be rather cloudy, sometimes unsettled, and with temperatures either on or just slightly above mid-August average values.

FORECASTS

TODAY any remnant drizzle should clear soon from southeast, and a few brighter intervals will follow this morning, but it will become mostly cloudy later, with rain following by late afternoon or evening (probably closer to mid-day in Atlantic coastal counties). Southerly breezes picking up to 40-60 km/hr later. Highs 18 to 21 C.
TONIGHT rather foggy at times, rainfalls of 5 to 10 mm in most areas, mild, lows 12 to 14 C.
FRIDAY should improve to partly cloudy skies and a moderate southwest wind, any showers quite isolated. Highs 16 to 19 C.
SATURDAY variable cloud, some later outbreaks of light rain, lows near 12 C and highs 18 to 22 C.
SUNDAY warm and humid, lows near 15 C and highs near 23 C, rain may hold off in some parts of the south and east but will be approaching gradually from the southwest and is likely to become rather heavy towards evening with possible thunderstorms overnight into Monday.
MONDAY will bring variable skies, a few passing showers or isolated thunderstorms, followed by rain overnight into TUESDAY, possibly associated with remnants of Atlantic tropical storm Debby.

This unsettled pattern will probably continue as much warmer air tries to work north into Britain at times but Ireland will only see glancing effects from that, staying closer to an active frontal zone.

My local weather both Tuesday and Wednesday was sunny and warm, thankfully this spell is no real heat wave at around 27 C, although close to 30 C in nearby valley areas. Remnant low of Debby is now inland over South Carolina heading north, a lot of rain fell in the New Jersey - New York area on Tuesday from a stalled front wrapped around Debby's tropical circulation, but the entire system seems to be weakening gradually, any further heavy rain will likely be near the higher ground of the Appalachians and into southern Quebec. The remnant low of Debby will move quickly across the Atlantic on Sunday-Monday and could be a factor in rainfalls in Ireland around Tuesday 13th but the weather system by then will be basically just a standard Atlantic depression without any tropical features.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 9 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Warm and increasingly humid, rain at times but some welcome dry intervals overlapping a weekend (!) ... temperatures will average 2 or 3 deg above normal, rainfall rather heavy in Connacht and west Ulster, a bit below average elsewhere.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with just isolated showers mainly in north Connacht and west Ulster. Highs 18 to 22 C.

TONIGHT will be hazy, some clear intervals and some cloudy spells, lows 10 to 13 C (possibly 6 to 8 C in noted cooler spots inland)

SATURDAY will be hazy and pleasantly warm, although some south-facing coasts could be misty and cooler from a sea breeze. Highs otherwise around 19 to 23 C. A few brief showers could hit a few parts of the north.

SUNDAY quite warm and humid, some limited sunshine in a few parts of Leinster and midlands, thundery rain moving into Atlantic coastal counties around late afternoon or evening. Lows 12 to 15 C and highs 21 to 24 C (possibly near 26 C inland southeast).

SUNDAY NIGHT could see some rather heavy thunderstorms rumbling through Connacht, midlands and Ulster, at this point they seem likely to avoid south and east. Lows around 16 C.

MONDAY still rather warm but the heat will have shifted into eastern England by afternoon, Ireland will likely see highs near 20 to 22 C. Another spell of rather heavy rain will arrive Monday night, associated with remnants of Tropical Storm Debby. (different spelling from 1961-Debbie is deliberate) ... as this storm will have become extratropical around New York state on Friday, it will retain no tropical features but it will have a significant amount of moisture available. 10-20 mm is the early call on rainfall potential.

TUESDAY will see further showers as somewhat cooler air wraps around and temperatures stay in the 16 to 18 C range with brisk westerly winds at times (50-70 km/hr).

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers, highs near 20 C and THURSDAY back to rain at times, near 21 or 22 C.

A gradual fall in temperatures after that point is expected, bringing daytime highs back into the high teens mostly.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny, hazy and warm with highs near 27 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 10 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Warm and increasingly humid, largely dry this weekend, rain at times Sunday to Tuesday but Monday also dry during part of the daylight hours, a slight cooling trend after Thursday ... temperatures will average 2 or 3 deg above normal, rainfall rather heavy in Connacht and west Ulster, a bit below average elsewhere.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be hazy and pleasantly warm, although some south-facing coasts could be misty and cooler from a sea breeze. Highs otherwise around 19 to 23 C. A few brief showers could hit a few parts of the north but most places will stay dry.

TONIGHT hazy and warm, muggy, lows 12 to 16 C.

SUNDAY quite warm and humid, some limited sunshine in a few parts of Leinster and midlands, thundery rain moving into Atlantic coastal counties around late afternoon or evening. Lows 12 to 15 C and highs 21 to 24 C (possibly near 26 C inland southeast).

SUNDAY NIGHT could see some rather heavy thunderstorms rumbling through Connacht, midlands and Ulster, at this point they seem likely to avoid or at least will be weaker as the front crosses parts of the south and east. Lows around 16 C.

MONDAY still rather warm but the heat will have shifted into eastern England by afternoon ((28 to 32 C possible there, 25 C in Wales and western England) ... Ireland will likely see highs near 21 to 23 C. A few heavy showers could linger from the overnight near the east coast Monday morning, but these should clear east by late morning. Sunny intervals will follow. Another spell of rather heavy rain will arrive Monday night, associated with remnants of Tropical Storm Debby. (different spelling from 1961-Debbie is deliberate) ... as this storm has become extratropical around Quebec on Friday (where it dropped 100-150 mm of rain), by Tuesday it will retain no tropical features but it will still have a significant amount of moisture available. 10-20 mm is still the call on rainfall potential. Most of that will likely fall at night before sunrise Tuesday.

TUESDAY will see further showers as somewhat cooler air wraps around and temperatures stay in the 16 to 18 C range with brisk westerly winds at times (50-70 km/hr).

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers, highs near 22 C, rain becoming heavy at times by evening and overnight into THURSDAY which will then turn partly cloudy by mid-day and breezy as cooler air begins to replace the warm spell, highs near 20 to 22 C. FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with highs near 19 C.

A gradual fall in temperatures after that point is expected, bringing daytime highs back into the high teens mostly.

My local weather on Friday was sunny, hazy and warm with highs near 27 C. Some weak thundershowers formed to our west during the late afternoon, once again, rumbles of thunder but no measurable rain in town, about 5 mm on nearby higher ground.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 11 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS: Very warm at times, gradually cooling back down towards normal values later this week. Rainfalls occasionally heavy in west and north, generally well below average in south and east. Variable and changeable skies.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be very warm with some intervals of hazy sunshine, possibly some low cloud and coastal fog near southwest coast at times, in a light to moderate southeast wind flow, highs 23 to 26 inland, 20 to 23 C coastal.
TONIGHT some evening showers and thunderstorms will slowly advance through west Munster into Connacht, possibly growing quite heavy around midnight, with severe potential in the north midlands and Ulster. Strong wind gusts and frequent lightning are possible there. More widely scattered and sporadic showers and thundershowers further south and into Leinster by morning. Quite warm, lows 14 to 17 C.

MONDAY will see this area of heavy showers departing east to be followed by variable skies and temperatures in the low 20s.

MONDAY NIGHT will bring on another 10-20 mm rainfall from a storm that is essentially the remnant of former Tropical Storm Debby, now located near Newfoundland. Lows near 14 C.

TUESDAY will bring back a partly cloudy regime with passing showers, still fairly warm at about 21 or 22 C.
WEDNESDAY increasing cloud, rain by afternoon west, evening east, warm. Lows near 15 C and highs near 23 C.
THURSDAY breezy, rain ending by mid-day, turning fresher in westerly winds of 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 12 C and highs 16 to 20 C.
A changeable and sometimes unsettled regime will follow. Guidance has been dabbling with various scenarios related to the next expected Atlantic hurricane when its remnants approach Ireland around 20th of August, any specific maps should be discounted at this early stage (there was one run showing what amounted to a 1986 Charley hitting the south and east, this has since disappeared).

My local weather started out sunny and very hazy then became cloudy with slow-moving and rather weak thundershowers drifting eastward, highs were near 29 C before those developed.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 12 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... warm until around Wednesday night, then closer to seasonal normals. Occasional rain returning tonight and Wednesday night into early Thursday, other intervals fairly dry.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring clearing skies and where storms hit last night (mostly west Munster, Connacht and Ulster) watch for local flooding which should ease by mid-day due to localized 15-25 mm rainfalls with the storms. It remained largely dry in east Munster, midlands (south, east) and Leinster so those problems will be absent ... in all areas, some pleasant sunshine at times today, breezy but not overly windy, and warm at around 22 C.
TONIGHT intervals of rain, moderate south to southwest winds, lows near 15 C.
TUESDAY rain ending, partial clearing, a few isolated showers redeveloping, highs near 19 or 20 C. Winds southwest 40 to 60 km/hr at times.
WEDNESDAY warm, increasing cloud, windy by evening with outbreaks of rain and isolated thunderstorms. Not expecting this front to be as severe as last night's event but more widespread. Lows near 15 C and highs 22 to 24 C. Temperatures will stay up around 16 or 17 C well into the night early Thursday morning.
THURSDAY variable cloud, rain ending and showers mixed with brighter intervals, windy at times (southwest 40-70 km/hr), lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.
FRIDAY variable cloud, isolated showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C.
This changeable pattern looks set to persist for much of the remainder of August, no return to mid-20s (where those occurred) is likely after mid-week but it won't turn particularly cold either.

My local weather on Sunday was hazy with increasing cloud and nearby light thundershowers again, warm (25 C) but no rain within 25 km of us, and a lightning strike on a nearby peak started a wildfire which was being attacked by aerial water bombing later in the afternoon (as we saw on a drive out that way). Not expecting this fire to be very large as it happened in a fairly barren area in general. Other larger fires in B.C. and Pacific northwest states are either being contained or extinguished so it's a slowly improving situation at present.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 13 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... warm until around Wednesday night, then closer to seasonal normals. Occasional rain returning tonight and Wednesday night into early Thursday, other intervals fairly dry.

FORECASTS

TODAY rain or drizzle ending, followed by partial clearing, a few isolated showers redeveloping, highs near 19 or 20 C. Winds southwest 40 to 60 km/hr at times.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy, breezy and quite mild, with lows 11 to 14 C. A few light showers in western and northern counties.
WEDNESDAY warm, increasing cloud, windy by evening with outbreaks of rain and isolated thunderstorms. Lows near 15 C and highs 22 to 24 C. Temperatures will stay up around 16 or 17 C well into the night early Thursday morning.
THURSDAY overcast then variable cloud, with overnight rain ending (10-15 mm likely) and showers mixed with brighter intervals, windy at times (southwest 40-70 km/hr), lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.
FRIDAY variable cloud, isolated showers, lows near 10 C and highs 19 to 21 C.
SATURDAY partly cloudy, a few showers, lows near 12 C and highs 19 to 22 C.
SUNDAY a few intervals of light rain, otherwise warm and muggy, lows near 15 C and highs 20 to 23 C.
MONDAY windy and turning cooler, showers, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed Atlantic coastal counties. Lows near 11 C and highs near 18 C.

A brief dry interval will follow, but the Atlantic will have more to deliver later in the week ... Current indications are that late stages of next week could be influenced by remnants of Ernesto, a hurricane expected to form off the east coast of the U.S. this week. A deep extratropical low could be just northwest of Donegal Bay by about Thursday 21st. Somewhat cooler in the wake of this showery and blustery interval.

My local weather on Monday was mostly cloudy with a few intervals of light rain and distant rumbles of thunder, not much rain fell (1-2 mm) and the high was about 25 C. Tropical Storm Ernesto could get its start near Puerto Rico and will track north in the western Atlantic off the east coast of the U.S., probably well offshore until near Cape Cod, and could sideswipe parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland by about Monday, then its strong extratropical remnants will track east towards Ireland but the low may veer northeast just before lining up a direct hit, so outer bands of its circulation will then affect weather in Ireland around Thursday 21st.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 14 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg above average. Occasional rainfalls but most places will record about half of a normal weekly amount. Near average sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become quite warm, with increasing cloud, windy by late afternoon and evening with outbreaks of rain and isolated thunderstorms in north and west. Highs 22 to 24 C.

TONIGHT intervals of rain, heavy at times in northwest counties, lows 14 to 16 C.

THURSDAY overcast then variable cloud, with overnight rain ending by mid-morning (totals of 10-15 mm likely) followed by a few passing showers mixed with brighter intervals, windy at times (southwest 40-70 km/hr), and highs near 20 C.

FRIDAY variable cloud, isolated showers, lows near 10 C and highs 19 to 21 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, a few showers, lows near 12 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

SUNDAY a few intervals of light rain, otherwise warm and muggy, lows near 15 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

MONDAY windy and turning cooler, showers, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed Atlantic coastal counties. Lows near 11 C and highs near 18 C.
TUESDAY partly cloudy, lows near 9 C and highs near 18 C.
By next WEDNESDAY (21st) into THURSDAY (22nd), windy with some rain mostly in west and north, as extratropical remnants of Ernesto (now becoming a hurricane near Puerto Rico) pass to the north. Temperatures steady in a range of 18 to 21 C.

A somewhat cooler regime could set in once these fronts have passed, but it looks to be around average for late August.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with afternoon cloudy intervals and a few rather weak showers along a cold front by late afternoon; once again, rainfalls were very slight locally. A few fires continue to burn in isolated mountainous terrain to our north, not considered to be major problem fires at present.
Ernesto will likely become a hurricane overnight and could be quite strong in about four days near Bermuda. Its track from there is still expected to run from southeast Newfoundland towards the Faeroes and its large circulation by then will impact forecasts by mid-week next week.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 15 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg above average. Occasional rainfalls but most places will record about half of a normal weekly amount. Near average sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY overcast then variable cloud, with overnight rain ending by mid-morning, followed by partial clearing but with a few passing showers mixed with brighter intervals, windy at times (southwest 40-70 km/hr), and highs near 20 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY variable cloud, isolated showers, and highs 19 to 21 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, a few showers, lows near 12 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

SUNDAY a few intervals of light rain, otherwise warm and muggy, lows near 15 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

MONDAY windy and turning cooler, blustery with showers, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed Atlantic coastal counties. Lows near 11 C and highs near 18 C.

TUESDAY partly cloudy, lows near 9 C and highs near 18 C.

By next WEDNESDAY (21st) into THURSDAY (22nd), windy with some rain mostly in west and north, as extratropical remnants of Ernesto (now a hurricane east of Bahamas) pass to the north or possibly interact with another low allowing weak remnants to drift into Ireland. Guidance with that variant does not develop the storm but we need to keep a watch on what actually happens, given the uncertainty at seven days or so. Temperatures will likely remain steady in a range of 18 to 21 C during this unsettled interval.

A somewhat cooler regime could set in once these fronts have passed, but it looks to fall only slightly to around average values for late August (16-19 C).

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and hazy with a high near 26 C. Ernesto is now a category one hurricane and by the time it gets close to Bermuda around Sunday, it could be closer to category three. It will then weaken somewhat and probably track across southeast Newfoundland on Monday night into Tuesday morning before being swept up by non-tropical systems further north.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 16 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg above average. Occasional rainfalls but most places will record about half of a normal weekly amount. Near average sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY variable cloud, sunny breaks and a few isolated showers in north, with highs 19 to 21 C.

TONIGHT clear intervals, lows 9 to 12 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, a few showers, lows near 12 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

SUNDAY variable cloud, a few intervals of light rain mostly over western to northern counties, warm and muggy, lows near 15 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

MONDAY overcast, breezy, and turning cooler late in the day, blustery with showers, winds west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr in exposed Atlantic coastal counties. Lows near 11 C and highs near 18 C west and north, 20 C east and south.

TUESDAY partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers, lows near 9 C and highs near 18 C.

By next WEDNESDAY (21st) into THURSDAY (22nd), windy with some rain (possibly not starting until Wednesday night), as extratropical remnants of Ernesto (now a hurricane south of Bermuda) pass close to the north coast. Temperatures will likely remain steady in a range of 18 to 22 C during this unsettled interval.

It now appears likely to stay relatively warm after Ernesto comes and goes, as a persistent west-southwest flow continues. Highs in the low 20s will likely keep appearing on most days towards late August. At the same time, no real indications of any uncomfortably warm or hot weather for Ireland, possibly marginally so for southern England.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and hazy with a high near 28 C. A nearly full moon is visible very low in the south with a veil of high cloud creating a partial halo effect.

Ernesto is now a category two hurricane and by the time it gets close to Bermuda around Saturday mid-day, it could be closer to category three. Unfortunately it appears likely to be a direct hit by the stronger side of this storm. It will then weaken somewhat and probably track across southeast Newfoundland on Monday night into Tuesday morning at near cat-1 or strong tropical storm intensity, before being swept up by non-tropical systems further north. A weak remnant low is now expected to be close to Donegal by Thursday 22nd.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 17 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS: temperatures near or slightly above average, rainfall becoming heavier in west and north but remaining below average in east and south, rather cloudy but with some sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter spells. Any rain will be confined to north where it won't be very prolonged or heavy. Highs 17 to 20 C.
TONIGHT will be overcast with isolated showers, lows 11 to 13 C. Any breaks in the cloud will reveal a nearly full moon low in the south.
SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, warm and rather muggy, highs 19 to 22 C. Some rain will come and go in west and north, steady rain by evening.
MONDAY morning outbreaks of rain, moderate south to southwest winds, veering westerly with a partial clearance late afternoon or evening. Lows near 15 C and highs 18 to 20 C.
TUESDAY blustery and cooler with passing showers, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr, lows near 9 C and highs near 17 C.
WEDNESDAY cloudy, warmer, some rain across north Connacht and Ulster, lows near 14 C and highs near 21 C.
THURSDAY breezy to windy with showers, heavy rain possible in coastal northwest. Winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr as remnants of Ernesto track past Connacht. Lows near 14 C and highs 18 to 21 C.
The regime after that depends to some extent on which guidance is closer to the mark, some North American based guidance has a prolonged warm and dry spell for the south at least, European guidance has been more pessimistic recently for the trends in this time frame.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with several brief showers giving perhaps 5 mm of rain, doubling our total for July-August. It only made it to around 23 C which makes it the coolest day in two months here. Ernesto is now passing Bermuda and the rather large eye is located just to the southeast of the island so they are near the weaker side of the eyewall but will still get substantial wind and surge impacts. A landfall in southeast Newfoundland is still possible around Monday night or early Tuesday and guidance continues to show Ernesto rapidly merging with "ordinary" low pressure further north during its approach to Ireland on Wednesday night. We'll keep watching but at this point it just looks like a fairly typical late summer frontal wave not vastly different from Monday's event in terms of rainfall or intensity of wind.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 18 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS: temperatures near or slightly above average, rainfall becoming heavier in west and north, parts of south also, but remaining below average in the east; rather cloudy but with some sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, warm and rather muggy, highs 19 to 22 C. Some rain will come and go in west and north, with a steady rain by evening across western counties.

TONIGHT rain spreading gradually east, becoming heavy by morning in the inland south (10-20 mm possible there). Lows around 12 to 15 C.

MONDAY morning outbreaks of rain, some heavy showers spreading into midlands from south, risk of thunderstorms; moderate south to southwest winds, veering westerly with a partial clearance late afternoon or evening in western counties, and highs 18 to 20 C.

TUESDAY blustery and cooler with passing showers, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr, lows near 9 C and highs near 17 C.

WEDNESDAY cloudy, warmer, some rain across north Connacht and Ulster, lows near 14 C and highs near 21 C.

THURSDAY breezy to windy with showers, heavy rain possible in coastal northwest and possibly in other regions also. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr as remnants of Ernesto track past Connacht. Lows near 14 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

FRIDAY breezy, gradual clearing, showers ending, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

The pattern being advertised for the following weekend and last week of August is generally near average and if anything could be a bit drier and warmer again, but only by a degree or two.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and pleasant with a high around 24 C. Ernesto has moved on from a direct hit on Bermuda, and will track near Newfoundland's southeast corner (Avalon Peninsula) but rain and strong northeast winds will spread a little further into the island as it goes past. Ernesto will be extratropical by about that time and will be absorbed by a low further north as it approaches Ireland on Wednesday night but there could be a fairly vigorous circulation for the combined low that forms.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 19 August, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rather unsettled with temperatures near average, if possibly a bit below normal in daytime and above at night due to fairly persistent cloud cover. A bit of sunshine on some days and occasionally quite windy.

FORECASTS

TODAY rain and a few thunderstorms will spread into western counties this morning, perhaps holding off to mid-day in some parts of the southeast where eventually they will not be as heavy by afternoon. Track of most active showers and local storms will be Connacht to central Ulster (10-15 mm). Highs 17 to 19 C. Rather breezy at times but strong winds confined to vicinity of a few shower cells; hail also possible in that area.

TONIGHT gradual clearing, isolated showers, breezy, lows 10 to 12 C.

TUESDAY variable cloud, breezy to windy, passing showers, rather cool, highs 15 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY a little warmer, outbreaks of rain, becoming heavy by evening and overnight especially in western counties. Highs around 19 or 20 C.

THURSDAY blustery with heaviest showers just after sunrise in west, mid-morning east, as remnant low of Ernesto may be speeding up a little faster than previous guidance. Winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 14 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

FRIDAY outbreaks of rain and blustery winds, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... partly cloudy skies will dominate, a few showers in the mix but some places will either stay dry or see very slight rainfalls, rather cool. Lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

The following week will remain slightly unsettled and daytime highs will be in the 17-20 C range for most, possibly warmer just at the very end of the month.

My local weather on Sunday was very pleasant, sunny with a high of about 26 C, and a southeast breeze. A bit of forest fire smoke was coming and going from distant rather small blazes in mountains of eastern WA and northern ID.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 20 August, 2024 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rather unsettled with temperatures near average, if possibly a bit below normal in daytime and above at night due to fairly persistent cloud cover. A bit of sunshine on some days and occasionally quite windy.

FORECASTS

TODAY variable cloud, breezy to windy, passing showers, rather cool, highs 15 to 18 C. Showers could merge into longer spells of rain in north. Winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr, some higher gusts possible near Donegal Bay.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, a little rain at times in north, otherwise generally dry. Lows 10 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY a little warmer, outbreaks of rain, becoming heavy by evening and overnight especially in western counties. Highs around 19 or 20 C.

THURSDAY blustery with heaviest showers just before sunrise in west, towards morning commute period east, as remnant low of Ernesto continues to speed up a little faster than previous guidance. Winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 14 C and highs 18 to 21 C. Sunny intervals by afternoon with localized showers in a brisk westerly wind. Another area of heavy rain will move through overnight into Friday morning, could bring heavy thunderstorms to some parts of Connacht, midlands, and Ulster.

FRIDAY morning showers and thunderstorms, brief clearing followed by another outbreak of less active showers by afternoon, lows near 13 C and highs near 18 C.

SATURDAY cool and breezy, passing showers, lows near 8 C and highs 14 C (north) to 17 C (south). Winds westerly to northwesterly 40 to 60 km/hr.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, a little warmer, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY of next week (26th-27th) could become quite unsettled with an interval of heavy rain possible. It will stay rather unsettled all week but with less rainfall in total until perhaps around weekend of 31 August and 1 September (this being almost two weeks out, could change of course; warmer air is going to try to make a resurgence around then but current guidance suggests it only gets into parts of southern Britain briefly, and not into Ireland, where a frontal system will be feeding off the energy of the warm air further east).

My local weather on Monday was again very pleasant with morning sunshine and afternoon high cloud dimming the sun, quite warm at around 29 C. We are into that annoying wasp season (it should be banned entirely) so outdoor meals are not as good an idea near end as they seemed near beginning.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 21 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... temperatures near average, rainfall will range from 25% above average in west, to near or 25% below in east. Rather cloudy and frequently breezy to windy.

FORECASTS

TODAY will remain dry in some parts of the south and east, with a few brighter spells despite widespread cloud. Rain will settle into some northern counties and will come and go in Atlantic coastal counties. It will be fairly warm at around 20 or 21 C inland for most areas, 18 C around coastal margins.

TONIGHT rain and moderate to strong southwest winds as remnant low of Ernesto quickly passes through. Rain will be heaviest around midnight in west, and towards dawn in east (10-20 mm likely). Winds south to southwest 50 to 70 km/hr, some higher gusts possible. Lows 12 to 14 C.

THURSDAY once the heavier rain moves east by mid-morning, some brighter intervals, strong westerly breezes dying out gradually, then another spell of rain developing by late afternoon or evening. Highs 18 to 21 C.

FRIDAY early morning outbreaks of heavy rain, temperatures steady 12 to 14 C, accompanied by some thunder, 10-15 mm rainfalls expected. Brief clearing mid-morning will be followed by more cloud and showers, moderate westerly breezes, and highs near 17 or 18 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy and quite cool, with occasional showers, lows near 8 C and highs 16 to 18 C.
SUNDAY partly cloudy for most areas, cloudy with occasional rain in north, lows near 9 C and highs near 19 C.
MONDAY increasing cloud, showers, lows near 10 C and highs 18 to 20 C.
It will remain unsettled most of next week and possibly also into weekend of 31 Aug - 1 Sep, any northward push by very warm air in this time frame may be limited to eastern Britain and France, but guidance is also wavering on that even happening there.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with increasing afternoon cloud and highs near 26 C. It looks like it may rain a bit here on Wednesday. Eastern regions of the U.S. were reporting unusually cool daytime readings near 20 C (normal there is closer to 30 C).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 22 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS: Unsettled, rainfalls 25 to 50% above normal, rather cloudy in general, temperatures near average or slightly above.

FORECASTS

TODAY ... the main energy from Ernesto came and went overnight but the atmosphere remains charged and a trailing wave will bring in a lot more rain and locally strong wind gusts later today and overnight. A few sunny breaks later this morning but passing showers, moderate southwest to west winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs near 18 or 19 C.

TONIGHT heavy rainfall in most regions, and strong south to southwest winds near south coast, isolated gusts to 90 km/hr possible (Waterford and Wexford most at risk). 20 to 30 mm of rain is possible, thundery downpours tracking from southwest towards central Leinster, with spot flooding developing by late overnight, temperatures steady around 13 to 15 C.

FRIDAY will see a similar trend to today, partial clearing followed by another wave of showery rainfalls late in the day. Winds will veer westerly, easing somewhat to 50 or 60 km/hr. Highs 17 to 19 C.

SATURDAY breezy and quite cool, especially in northern counties, with occasional light rain and localized heavier showers over higher parts of northwest. Winds westerly backing to south-southwest late in the day, 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 9 C and highs 15 (north) to 18 (south, east) C.

SUNDAY variable cloud, warmer especially in southern inland and eastern counties, some rain mostly in north, moderate southwest winds, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 or 20 C.

MONDAY increasing cloud during the morning, showers and isolated heavy thunderstorms late in the day, strong southwest winds developing. Lows near 14 C and highs near 18 C.

TUESDAY variable cloud, some rain at times, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY, rather warm and humid, outbreaks of rain and possible thunderstorms, highs near or slightly above 20 C, very mild at night (13-15 C).

Very warm or hot air masses will be well entrenched later next week over continental Europe and could extend into southeast England at times, with a very active frontal zone likely to be located over Ireland and parts of western to northern Britain. This may continue into weekend of 31 Aug - 1st Sept and it could turn very warm for a few days in early September before returning to the frontal boundary regime. There would be a risk of strong winds and locally heavy rains, details of any actual occurrences probably won't be too clear at longer than 4-5 days lead time.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy and rather cool with a few sprinkles of rain, highs near 22 C. It was very hot across the south central U.S. but equally cool in east coast states; New York and Philadelphia had one of their coolest August days in several decades and parts of the Midwest had record lows near 7 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 23 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS: Unsettled, further rainfalls near normal, rather cloudy in general, temperatures near average or slightly above.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start off partly sunny and breezy, with showers developing near west coast spreading gradually into other regions around mid-day, a few showers will become thundery and produce hail and local downpours, rainfalls quite variable but in range of 5 to 15 mm. Winds will become westerly around 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT showers, heavy at times, breezy, lows near 11 C.

SATURDAY breezy and quite cool, especially in northern counties, with occasional light rain and localized heavier showers over higher parts of northwest. Winds westerly backing to south-southwest late in the day, 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs near 15 C (north) to 18 C (south, east).

SUNDAY variable cloud, warmer especially in southern inland and eastern counties, some rain mostly in north, moderate southwest winds, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 or 20 C.

MONDAY increasing cloud during the mid-day hours, showers and isolated heavy thunderstorms late in the day, strong southwest winds developing (50-70 km/hr by evening). Lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

TUESDAY variable cloud, rain tapering to showers with partial clearing by afternoon or evening, lows 10 to 12 C and highs 17 to 19 C.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY, rather warm and humid, outbreaks of rain and possible thunderstorms, highs near or slightly above 20 C, very mild at night (13-15 C).
Very warm to hot air masses will push north into eastern Britain from France around this time, so there could be some isolated heavy thunderstorms in any frontal activity, most likely to be observed near inland southeastern counties.
It will remain quite unsettled into early September with temperatures near or slightly above normal then also.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly cloudy until mid-afternoon, dry bands of showers moved in from south with rain evaporating before reaching the ground, then the sun was out which warmed us up to near 25 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 24 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal, warming towards end of the week. Some further rain but not as wet as recently. Sunshine closer to average totals.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy and rather cool with outbreaks of light rain in the north, brief showers further south. Winds westerly 40 to 60 km/hr backing to south-southwest by evening. Highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT cloudy with outbreaks of rain, mild, lows near 12 C.

SUNDAY persistent light rain in north tapering to drizzle by afternoon. Some showers further south but drier in general and some brighter intervals developing by afternoon. Highs near 16 C north, 20 C south.

MONDAY after morning lows 8 to 10 C, sunny during the morning and (in east) early afternoon, increasing cloud, rain hitting western coastal areas by evening. Highs 19 to 22 C. Quite windy by evening and overnight (south-southwest 50-70 km/hr). Rain heavy at times in north and west overnight (about 10-15 mm).

TUESDAY rain continuing for part of the day in east, slow and gradual clearing in west. Lows near 14 C and highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be days of variable cloud amounts and occasional showers, isolated thunderstorms. Warm with lows near 13 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

FRIDAY sunny intervals, just isolated showers, lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C.

At the moment, guidance has improved for weekend of 31 Aug to 1 or 2 Sep depending on your plans, sunny intervals and relatively warm, as frontal activity will peter out during Friday. Highs into the low or even mid 20s possibly.

My local weather was overcast for most of the day, and some heavy showers developed late in the day, with an interval of strong and locally damaging winds from the south at 60-100 km/hr. Luckily no trees came down in our area although they were blowing around in the strong gusts. Other locations in southern BC did have wind damage and power outages but so far so good here. It was around 28 C before the front hit, cooler air (only 13-15 C) had worked its way into all regions south of the border while remnants of the warm air were pushed north and the system is now pushing across the Rockies for a severe weather outbreak on Saturday in Alberta and Montana.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 25 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal, warming towards end of the week. Some further rain but not as wet as recently, although locally above normal values in north Connacht and west Ulster. Sunshine closer to average totals.

FORECASTS

TODAY persistent light to moderate rain in north tapering to drizzle by afternoon. Some showers further south but drier in general and some brighter intervals developing by afternoon. Highs near 16 C north, 20 C south.

TONIGHT fog patches, drizzle, some clear intervals inland south, lows 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY sunny during the morning and (in east) early afternoon, then increasing cloud, rain hitting western coastal areas by evening. Highs 19 to 22 C. Quite windy by evening and overnight (south-southwest 50-70 km/hr). Rain heavy at times in north and west overnight (about 10-15 mm).

TUESDAY rain continuing for part of the day in east, slow and gradual clearing in west. Lows near 14 C and highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be days of variable cloud amounts and occasional showers, isolated thunderstorms. Rather warm and humid with lows near 13 C and highs 18 to 22 C.

FRIDAY sunny intervals, just isolated showers, lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C.

Some sunshine each day and rather warm over weekend of 31 Aug to 1 Sep and into week following. Highs into the low or even mid 20s possibly.

My local weather was wet all morning and chilly, temperatures were steady near 10 C. Rain tapered to drizzle and it turned foggy, slow clearing is expected tomorrow and much warmer in stages for the week ahead as the cold pool over top shifts further east.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 26 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... turning warmer in stages, rain becoming less frequent after Wednesday, sunshine also improving towards end of week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out generally dry except in parts of Ulster and north Connacht where patchy light rain will continue. A few sunny intervals could develop in parts of the south and east. It will be a bit warmer with light winds at first, then stronger southerly winds by late afternoon, when rain will sweep into Atlantic coastal counties. Highs 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT rain, heavy at times, especially in parts of the northwest where 20-25 mm possible. Winds increasing to southerly 40-60 km/hr with higher gusts near coasts. Lows near 14 C.

TUESDAY rain becoming patchy and showery during the morning, then ending in most places during the afternoon, staying rather cloudy except in parts of southwest and by evening midlands could see brighter intervals too. Highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY another weaker disturbance will bring 5-10 mm of rain to many locations, lows near 14 C and highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy, showers and isolated thunderstorms, lows near 13 C and highs near 20 C.

FRIDAY isolated showers, some longer sunny intervals for south and east, lows near 11 C and highs near 21 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK is relatively pleasant, a front will stall to the west (we hope) and rain from that could brush outer west coast at times with cloudy intervals spreading about one third of the way east towards midlands, but sunny breaks should be fairly frequent in south, east and even parts of north. Lows both days near 12 C and highs 20 to 23 C. A warm and generally dry interval will continue for several days, and a slow transition back to somewhat unsettled but reasonably warm (for September) temperatures could continue for a week or two as steering currents will be generally weak.

My local weather, after the shocker of a November-like Saturday, enough improvement to restore a summery look with skies rapidly clearing around mid-day, highs near 17 C as the air mass is still a bit chilly. Looks like some near average conditions followed by a very warm spell about the same time as your own temperatures peak over weekend and early next week. The cool spell in eastern North America ended over this weekend and temperatures are pushing back up into 28-32 C range there.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 27 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Turning warmer later in the week, and over the weekend, temperatures will average 2 deg above normal. Rain will continue at times but there could be a three or four day dry interval for parts of the country concurrent with the warmer temperatures. Sunshine will also improve.

FORECASTS

TODAY some heavy rain (10-15 mm possible) will continue for most of the morning in parts of southeast Ireland and a few areas of north Ulster also. Regions closer to the west midlands will be generally dry, and sunshine will show up there first, eventually spreading to other regions by afternoon. Highs 18 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with a few sprinkles of rain, lows near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY variable cloud, showers or longer intervals of light rain, highs 17 to 20 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows near 9 C and highs near 20 C.

FRIDAY cloudy with sunny breaks, a few showers at first, drying trend setting in later, lows near 8 C and highs near 20 C.

SATURDAY mostly sunny except for some cloud in Atlantic coastal counties. Lows near 7 C and highs 21 to 23 C (cooler under cloud and in some sea breeze areas).

SUNDAY rather uncertain as to details, a weak front could edge into western and later central regions with a bit of rain associated, some eastern counties could remain largely dry with more sunshine, lows around 8 to 10 C and highs 21 to 23 C.

MONDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, showers developing late in the day. Lows near 10 C and highs near 21 C.

There is some uncertainty about how warm it will remain for the following week, some guidance is showing a brief northerly incursion as high pressure may back off to the west mid-week.

My local weather on Monday was sunny (21 C) with increasing cloud late in the day. Rain is moving in for Tuesday. We'll see rather cool temperatures to Wednesday and then several very warm days, so on a fairly similar trend to your own weather.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 28 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Scattered showers will die out over next two days and a dry interval will follow, with warmer daytime temperatures and better sunshine values. Eventually high pressure will crest further north allowing a weak easterly flow to develop around a week from now. That could lead to some cloud and light rain by about Thursday 5th of September across southern counties.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy in the south and mostly cloudy in the north, with a few showers in the south and more frequent outbreaks of light rain further north. Highs near 16 C north and near 19 C south.

TONIGHT will bring a few clear intervals, fog patches, and isolated showers continuing in the north. Lows 6 to 9 C.

THURSDAY variable cloud and isolated showers, chance of a brief thundershower. Highs 17 to 21 C.

FRIDAY sunny with a few cloudy intervals near some coasts mainly, lows near 7 C and highs near 21 C.

SATURDAY mostly sunny, warmer, lows near 8 C and highs near 22 or 23 C.

SUNDAY cloudy at times in west, slight chance of a brief interval of rain there, but it will likely remain partly cloudy to sunny and warm further east, lows near 9 C and highs near 22 C.

MONDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 7 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY of next week seem likely to continue similarly to Monday, with perhaps a faint easterly breeze bringing somewhat cooler daytime readings in Leinster (especially by Wednesday). Then around THURSDAY 5th Sep, cloudy intervals and scattered outbreaks of light rain in south, possibly, as a weak disturbance forms to the south of Cornwall and loops around south of Ireland over several days. This may not affect weather conditions very much in central and northern counties and the dry spell (once started) could persist several more days there. No sign of big changes in the pattern for yet another week into mid-September.

My local weather on Tuesday featured passing showers and a few rumbles of thunder, one shower was accompanied by small hail (not damaging) and temperatures ranged from 18 C in dry intervals to about 12 C during heavier rainfall. It has begun to clear and it's quite chilly out for late August, only around 6 C at 10:30 p.m. local time. Snow has been reported on mountain highways and at ski hills above 1600 m elevation. Unusual but not unprecedented.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 29 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... warmer and for eastern counties, largely dry, some rain at times in west but also longer dry spells than recently there. Temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal. Sunshine improving to about 25% above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mostly in northern counties, and tending to die out by afternoon. Highs 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT clear intervals, fog patches, lows 6 to 9 C.

FRIDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, slight risk of isolated showers in north and west. Highs 20 to 23 C.

SATURDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, warm. Lows 7 to 10 C, highs 20 to 23 C.

SUNDAY now appears more likely to turn wet for a time in western counties, as the front seems to be holding together and could reach central counties by late afternoon before weakening and dying out. Rainfalls of 5-15 mm possible in west, but only 1-3 mm for east coast by evening and overnight, after some sunny breaks to start the day. Lows 10 to 13 C and highs 17 to 20 C west, 20 to 23 C east.

MONDAY variable cloud, isolated showers, cooler in northwest breezes. Lows near 9 C and highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY a mixture of cloud and sun, isolated showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C.
Some sunshine at times especially in west and north, as winds back around to northeasterly later in the week. The changes over the weekend will delay the disturbance expected to the south of Ireland to Friday 6th or even Saturday 7th now, but it is still expected to bring some rain to parts of the southeast around then while it may stay dry further north.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy until mid-day and rapidly cleared during the early afternoon, allowing a high near 20 C to replace the morning chill. We are now into the start of a fairly long dry spell and warmer temperatures. It was briefly quite hot on the east coast of the U.S. with 38 C at Washington, DC and 32 C at New York City. This is already being replaced by more pleasant cooler temperatures near average for late August. The heat will linger for a few more days in the southeastern states though.
Sun has been moderately active for several days and there have been brief flare-ups bringing the auroral band south at times (missed seeing it here due to cloud last night). There may be further opportunities to see northern lights in next few days.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 30 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... dry for many areas, with just small amounts of rain on Sunday ... temperatures will average a little above normal, clear skies will allow for some chilly overnight readings but daytime temperatures will be pleasant ... plenty of sunshine for a change.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly sunny, with light east to southeast winds and highs 20 to 23 C.

TONIGHT clear with a few clouds near south coast, lows 5 to 9 C.

SATURDAY sunny with some increase in higher cloud across south late in the day. Highs 20 to 23 C.

SUNDAY a rather weak front will approach, it now appears that most of its moisture will evaporate near the west coast just as rain starts to fall there, but a separate area of moisture will clip the southeast for a time, rainfalls of 5-10 mm are possible inland southeast, otherwise just traces to 2 mm indicated. (situation is in flux so this may not be the last word on rain distribution). Some sun will get through at times despite rather cloudy skies. Highs will range from 17 C where it's raining, to 21 or 22 C in a few brighter spots (north central counties should do best).

MONDAY will see a return to at least partly sunny skies and only very isolated remnants of shower activity, most places should remain dry, lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C. Moderate northwest breezes may cool parts of the Atlantic coastal counties to around 16 C.

TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C. Winds light to moderate northerly will cool parts of Ulster to around 16 C.

Possibly a bit warmer as high pressure stagnates over the region mid-week lasting towards weekend of 7-8 Sep, highs could be back into lower 20s inland. Winds will slowly back around to northeast, although rather variable. The disturbance we were tracking for late in the week is now shown further south and may miss the south coast counties entirely (it was always likely to miss the rest of the country anyway). Again, not necessarily the last wrinkle in this story, but some places are going to stay dry apparently for the entire forecast period. Mid-September looks a little more unsettled as the sprawling highs weaken and eventually get replaced by equally slow-moving areas of low pressure. It looks showery rather than a prolonged steady rainfall from those.

My local weather improved to sunny and 21 C, and a warm spell lies ahead. The tropics have been quiet at this nearly peak portion of the season, but there are some signs of activity resuming later next week.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 31 August, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rather dry in general, some light rain at times on Sunday and Monday but not in all locations, otherwise generally dry for at least a week and possibly into the second week of the outlook period too. Temperatures will average near normal for time of year, partly because clear skies will allow some rather chilly overnight lows. Daytime readings could be a touch warmer than average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with increasing high cloud near south and west coasts later in the day. Warm except for a few coastal areas with low cloud or sea breezes, highs generally 19 to 22 C.

TONIGHT cloudy with a few breaks in east, north. Spotty light rain possible near south and west coasts. Lows 8 to 11 C.

SUNDAY variable cloud, a few outbreaks of rain but guidance is rather mixed on potential, some sources are still optimistic that rain will stay near coasts or out to sea, with relatively little falling in many parts of the country. Not quite as warm due to cloud cover but highs generally 17 to 19 C, could hit 20 or 21 where any sun gets through.

MONDAY cloudy with sunny breaks, still the same comment about rainfall potential, various guidance showing different potentials, some rather heavy near east coast, others generally spotty and dry in some areas. Lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

TUESDAY sunny intervals, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C.
The rest of the week should be dominated by high pressure and a slight northeast breeze more noticeable near east coast. Highs will range from 16 C east to 20 C west, overnight lows could fall to rather chilly values inland and outside of larger towns (3-5 C). Once again, a slight potential for rain to brush south coast counties late in the week or towards weekend of 7-8 Sep, unlikely to be much of a factor anywhere north of immediate coast on current indications.
This rather stagnant pattern does not appear likely to break down until beyond the weekend of 7-8, possibly around 10 Sep, and then it could reverse trends to frequent light rain and cloudy skies.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and warm with a high around 24 C. We're now into about a week of very good late summer weather after some quite unseasonable chill following our record hot July.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 1 September, 2024 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures near average. Becoming more cloudy and showery in some parts of the country, although total rainfalls generally below average and in some parts quite low. Sunshine improving again for a few days later in the week. A trend to heavier rain and cooler temperatures will follow in about a week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, and a slight east wind will cool the eastern counties so that highs of 17 to 20 C west will trend to about 15 to 18 east. A few brief showers are possible, with rain holding off in general until tonight.

TONIGHT a few outbreaks of moderate rain in parts of west Munster spreading towards midlands. Elsewhere, patchy light rain more likely. Lows 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY a few further showers or outbreaks of rain, variable cloud, becoming more sunny in western counties by afternoon. Highs around 18 C.

TUESDAY variable cloud, showers, northwest to northerly breezes, rather chilly, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C north, 16 C south.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY somewhat uncertain, as ridge of high pressure tries to rebuild to north, weak lows swirling around to the south and southeast. Net result likely to be partly cloudy to sunny in north, mostly cloudy in south, some chance of rain but not a prolonged downpour. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs generally around 16 but could be 18 to 20 C where sun is out and no cooling influences of easterly winds from Irish Sea (so parts of Connacht and west Ulster finally seeing a break).

By about weekend of 7-8 September, a risk of heavier rainfalls moving into parts of the south, but timing rather uncertain, it could hold off towards early the following week. The trend does look rather dismal towards mid-September with increasing chances for cool, wet spells.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and very warm at 28 C.