Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 28 September, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 28 Sep to 4 Oct 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal with a rising trend from below normal today, to 2-3 deg above normal by middle of next week.

-- Rainfall will be near normal in some parts of the west and north, a little lower than average in the south and east. Most of this expected rainfall will be on Friday and Saturday.

-- Sunshine may manage to catch up to the seasonal average of about 3 hours a day, later in the interval as skies brighten.

-- Strong westerly winds at times, becoming southwesterly next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and cool with passing showers, highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will bring a few clear intervals, rather cold with local frost possible, lows near zero C to +5 C.

THURSDAY will see increasing cloud and a stronger southwest wind by afternoon and evening as rain arrives. Highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY will be windy with outbreaks of heavy rain especially in northern counties (15-25 mm there). Lows near 11 C and highs near 17 C. Winds west-southwest 60-90 km/hr.

SATURDAY will continue rather breezy and unsettled, although in both aspects somewhat improved over Saturday. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C. Winds westerly 40-70 km/hr. About 5-10 mm rainfalls from showers and isolated thunderstorms in some cases.

SUNDAY to TUESDAY looks to be a warmer spell with some sunshine at times in parts of the south and east, more likely overcast further north with the risk of rain from time to time, in a moderate southwest flow (winds generally about 40-60 km/hr, could be stronger in north).

After that the trend may go back towards cooler, breezy and unsettled again.

My local weather remains wonderful for time of year, sunny with a high of 27 C. Hurricane Ian's track has shifted southeast and the new landfall estimate is Fort Myers (south of Tampa Bay by almost 100 miles), timing has moved up to later today. (about 4 p.m. EDT or 9 p.m. IST).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 29 September, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 29 Sep to 5 Oct --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, warmest around Tuesday of next week.

-- Rainfalls will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal in some northern counties.

-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be a generally dry day with some sunshine at times, and increasing cloud later. Highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will become overcast and quite windy with rain in the north and west, reaching south and east before dawn. Winds increasing to south-southwest 40-70 km/hr with higher gusts possible near coasts. Lows 6-10 C.

FRIDAY will continue very unsettled with passing squally showers or intervals of heavy rain, tapering off to showers with partial clearing after winds veer more westerly around mid-day (west) to afternoon (east). Highs 15-18 C. Strong southwest to west winds 60-90 km/hr. Total rainfalls around 20-30 mm in most regions, possibly a bit less near south coast.

SATURDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud and a few showers, isolated thunderstorms. By evening a spell of moderately heavy rain will move into the south and will take most of the overnight hours to clear through south Leinster. That will add 10-15 mm to earlier rainfalls more widespread in the 3-5 mm range. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY will see partly cloudy skies once the early morning rainfall event clears away, and some longer sunny intervals are possible in the south. A few isolated showers could develop further north in moderate westerly winds backing to southwest by evening. Lows near 9 C and highs near 15 C to 18 C inland south.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will feature a mild, humid southwesterly flow that may produce sporadic rain in many areas, least amounts likely in the southeast, but 5-10 mm daily amounts probable in west and north. Lows both days 8-12 C and highs 14-18 C.

Following that, the regime looks fairly typical of early to mid October with a progression of dry intervals separated by showery frontal systems, and near normal temperatures for that period. (highs around 15 C, lows 3-7 C).

My local weather became rather cloudy but it stayed quite warm with highs in the 23-25 C range. A few showers are moving in now, and we will have a bit of a break from the warmth before it returns on the weekend.

Hurricane Ian made landfall just north of Fort Myers and produced a lot of storm surge flooding in the region, with more isolated wind damage. Very heavy rainfalls inland will flood many river systems in the generally flat central regions of Florida and the hurricane will likely drift back out into the Atlantic close to cat-1 hurricane intensity, perhaps gain a bit of strength just offshore then will hit South Carolina by the weekend. Cool high pressure over the northeastern states will probably prevent most of its moisture from getting much further north than southern New Jersey as the storm dies out in the mid-Atlantic states region.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 30 September, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 30 Sep to 6 Oct 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average 1-2 deg above normal, warmest around Tuesday.

-- Rainfalls will be 25 per cent above normal in parts of Ulster and north Connacht, and near normal in most other regions; much of that will fall today and lesser amounts will follow on almost a daily basis.

-- Sunshine is likely to be held down by persistent cloud, to about 75 per cent of normal.

-- Winds often quite blustery from southwest to west.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be quite windy with intervals of heavy rain especially in the northern counties, somewhat more showery in nature further south. About 15-25 mm is expected in most regions. Winds south to southwest 60-90 km/hr veering westerly 50-80 km/hr. Highs near 14 C in the north to about 17 C in parts of west Munster, where some brighter spells may develop by late in the day.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with isolated showers and the strong winds gradually abating, lows 8 to 11 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms possible, highs 15 to 17 C.

SUNDAY some early morning rain near the south coast will probably not affect most other regions, then after that moves into the Irish Sea and south Wales towards daybreak, all regions will enjoy some partial clearing and moderate westerly breezes, lows 8 to 11 C and highs 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY will become mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain mostly confined to west and north, lows 7 to 9 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

TUESDAY will be warm and humid with further outbreaks of rain and moderate southwest winds, lows 10 to 13 C and highs 16 to 19 C.

WEDNESDAY will be breezy and cooler with passing showers, winds westerly 50-70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

Several more unsettled days will follow with a more settled interval around the weekend of the 8th-9th and on into the following week.

My local weather was overcast and foggy with light rain as a weak disturbance interrupts our warm, dry spell; it looks as though another week of warm, dry weather will develop here later today. Hurricane Ian has somewhat redeveloped off the Georgia coast overnight and looks to make a second U.S. landfall in South Carolina. Impacts will be more moderate than in southwest Florida where the situation is apparently quite grim in some areas around Fort Myers.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 1 October, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 Oct --

Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.

Rainfall will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal in the west and north, but less than 75 per cent of normal in parts of the east and south.

Sunshine will be around normal for time of year,

It will be breezy to windy at times, from a southwest to west direction mostly.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with a few brief showers and isolated thunderstorms possible. Highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT there could be some light rain near the south coast, guidance has trended south with this and many places away from southwest Cork may not see much more than a bit of drizzle; further north, variable amounts of cloud, lows generally 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY will be a bright and rather breezy day with westerly winds 40-60 km/hr at times, isolated showers possible in the north, and highs 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY will be mostly cloudy, mild and humid, rather windy at times in west Ulster and north Connacht, with outbreaks of rain turning heavy in Atlantic coastal counties. It will be more showery further east and south. Lows 8 to 10 C and highs 15 to 18 C. In the northwest counties some spells of strong southwest winds 60-100 km/hr.

TUESDAY will continue rather mild and humid with overcast skies and occasional rain, steady southwest winds 50-80 km/hr. Lows 11-14 C and highs 15-19 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out with intervals of rain heaviest near the southeast coast, clearing during the morning to partly cloudy to overcast skies, isolated showers and cooler temperatures. Lows 9 to 11 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

THURSDAY to about SATURDAY a somewhat unsettled westerly flow with near normal temperatures will bring in small to moderate amounts of rain and occasional gusty winds, with highs each day around 14 C. Higher pressure will then dominate for a few days from about SUNDAY 9th to TUESDAY 11th, bringing a risk of frost and cooler daytime readings near 12 C. More rather bland unsettled westerly weather can be expected to follow that brief change.

My local weather on Friday saw fog and drizzle ending during the morning then bright sunshine and highs near 17 C. Hurricane Ian made its second U.S. landfall east of Charleston SC and the remnants are bringing some locally heavy rainfalls to the inland southeastern states.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 2 October, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar to previous report, rather mild, with some heavy rainfalls by Tuesday and first part of Wednesday, drying out again later in the week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny at times, with any showers brief and unlikely to give more than trace amounts. The south coast is already clearing out from the brief interval of light rain that affected only a few parts of south Cork. Breezy at times, westerly 40-60 km/hr, and highs around 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will be mild and humid with increasing cloud, rain reaching a few parts of the west by morning. Lows 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY will be overcast with rain in western and northern counties, heavy at times. Windy by afternoon in parts of Connacht and west Ulster. Highs 16 to 18 C.

TUESDAY will continue overcast with outbreaks of rain. By late in the day, a two-day total near 35 mm is possible in west and north, closer to 15 mm in south and east. Lows near 11 C and highs 16 to 19 C.

WEDNESDAY a vigorous front will arrive in the morning, with further heavy rain likely until it clears east by mid-day. Turning cooler with strong west to northwest winds for a few hours following the frontal passage. Lows near 9 C and highs 13 to 15 C.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY will continue rather breezy and sometimes unsettled but rainfall amounts will not be as heavy, with temperatures near average (lows 5-8 C and highs 13-16 C).

Around SUNDAY-MONDAY (9th-10th) there could be a brief dry spell with frosty nights as weak high pressure builds up, but that does not appear likely to last too long. Highs around 12 C during that interval. It will be back to a rather mundane Atlantic-dominated westerly with passing frontal systems and outbreaks of rain around mid-month, temperatures in the 12-15 C range.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny once the morning mist cleared away, and it was quite warm again, with highs reaching 21 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 3 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 October --

Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, warmer at first, close to normal after Thursday.

Rainfalls will amount to 150% of normal in the west and north, but only 50% in parts of the east and south.

Sunshine will total about 75% of average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy and quite mild, with rain mostly confined to Connacht and west Ulster, possibly reaching a few parts of west Munster by afternoon. These areas could receive 15-25 mm. Highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be very mild with the rain gradually spreading further east, still rather light in the east and south. Lows 11 to 14 C.

TUESDAY will remain very mild with further showers and highs 15 to 19 C.

WEDNESDAY morning will stay mild with rain turning heavy at times, then it will become windy turning cooler. Overnight and morning temperatures near 14 C, by afternoon 8 to 10 C. Some further showers likely with westerly winds 60 to 90 km/hr.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and lows near 7 C, highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny with lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.

It may then turn somewhat cooler briefly, windy and milder early in the following week, with a chilly northerly interval around mid-October.

My local weather was sunny, hazy and very warm on Sunday with highs reaching 24 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 4 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 October --

-- Temperatures will remain quite mild to Thursday, then falling back closer to average values. The net result will be an average 1-2 deg above normal values.

-- Further moderate to heavy rains can be expected in parts of the west and north, briefly spreading east at times. Amounts will total about 25 to 50 per cent above normal west and north, staying a bit below average in the east and south.

-- Sunshine will be challenged to keep up with the rather modest October averages of about 3.5 hours a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and very mild with further outbreaks of rain turning heavy at times in Connacht and west Ulster, where 20-30 mm additional rainfall is likely. Moderate south to southwest breezes, highs 15 to 19 C.

TONIGHT rain will spread east, and it may become quite windy in western counties as a sharp cold front approaches by dawn. Lows 11 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will be windy with intervals of rain, briefly heavy around a frontal passage (late morning for eastern counties), variable cloud to follow with further showers likely, winds southwest veering to westerly 60 to 90 km/hr at times. Temperatures steady 14-16 C may drop off slightly in the afternoon and evening.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue breezy, somewhat showery at times, with west-southwest winds 40-70 km/hr, highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY may see some brighter intervals and a brief break from showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will see a return to breezy or even windy weather with outbreaks of rain and temperatures 15 to 17 C.

The rest of the following week looks somewhat unsettled with temperatures closer to average, eventually dipping below normal for a few days if a strong northerly flow develops as advertised (at that time frame, confidence cannot be all that high however).

My local weather was sunny, hazy and very warm with highs around 25 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 5 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar, temperatures near or just above normal values, frequent rain in the west and north with totals near or above normal, not as wet further east. Sunshine at times but likely not keeping pace with the seasonal average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some brighter and cooler intervals this morning, but cloud and showers will increase along with westerly winds this afternoon and evening, and there could be some embedded brief thunderstorms. Temperatures steady 10 to 13 C, or falling to those levels soon. Winds increasing to west-southwest 50-80 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be breezy with showers, winds westerly 40-70 km/hr. Lows near 7 C.

THURSDAY will continue breezy to windy with passing showers, some heavy. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr. Highs 14 to 16 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy, partly cloudy to overcast, with a few showers, and slightly cooler, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals in the south, lows near 5 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY will bring outbreaks of rain and the risk of strong southwest winds developing, most likely near the south coast but possibly spreading further north. Lows near 7 C and highs 13 to 15 C.

Most of next week will be unsettled and sometimes windy with fast-moving frontal systems making timing wet and dry spells rather difficult given that the timing that far out is always somewhat in doubt. These fronts will move through quickly about every second or third day. Little change is seen in that scenario even into the second week of the outlook period.

My local weather on Monday continued sunny, hazy and warm with highs near 21 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 6 October, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 Oct will remain unsettled with frequent rain, heavy at times, in western and northern counties, amounting to more than 25% above normal totals, while the east remains somewhat drier. Temperatures will not be far from average for early October, and sunshine will be somewhat below average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy to windy at times with passing showers, longer intervals of rain developing by afternoon in the west and north. Winds west-southwest 50-70 km/hr. Highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT further showers or outbreaks of light rain spreading south, breezy with lows 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY will continue rather unsettled with passing showers, gusty westerly winds, and a bit cooler with highs 13 to 15 C.

SATURDAY will be perhaps a bit more pleasant with generally dry conditions, partly cloudy to overcast skies, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY will return to rain and strong south to southwest winds. Some quite heavy rainfalls possible over higher parts of the west like Kerry and Connemara. Lows near 10 C and highs 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY will become partly cloudy and less breezy, highs near 14 C.

Two more rather powerful frontal systems appear to be timed for next Tuesday and Thursday (13th). A cooler interval is set to follow as winds turn more northerly, but that regime will also bring some wet intervals, before returning to a milder westerly after mid-month.

My local weather remained quite warm despite a general high overcast spreading in, hazy sunshine despite that and highs near 20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 7 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, near normal temperatures and rainfall in most areas, sunshine perhaps a bit below average, winds often rather blustery from the southwest or west.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms, blustery at times with winds westerly 50-70 km/hr, highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT showers will die out, and winds will diminish somewhat. Lows 4 to 7 C.

SATURDAY will be a relatively dry day with only a few isolated showers, despite rather cloudy skies. Some longer sunny breaks are possible in the south. Highs 14 to 16 C.

SUNDAY will become overcast with showers heavier in western counties, winds south to southwest 40-70 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy with isolated showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY mostly cloudy with showers, highs near 15 C.

There will be a gradual trend later next week towards stronger winds and more prolonged rainfall, and eventually the winds will turn northwest to north, strong at times. This will lead to some cooler temperatures closer to 10 C in the daytime.

My local weather remained sunny and warm with a high near 23 C. This is expected to go on for quite some time.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 8 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 Oct --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.

-- Rainfalls will be about 75% of normal in the west, and 25 to 50 per cent of normal in the east.

-- Sunshine may manage to keep pace with the current seasonal average of about 3.5 hours a day.

-- Moderate, but not often strong, southwest winds most of the time. Increasing to strong westerly by 14th.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be a fairly pleasant day with some sunshine and some cloudy intervals, mostly dry apart from a few isolated showers in Ulster. Highs about 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT increasing cloud, rain in west at times, lows 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY mostly cloudy, occasional rain, 5-10 mm likely, more persistent in west most of the day. Highs 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY will become partly cloudy and breezy, with passing showers mostly confined to northern counties. Winds westerly 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY will bring increasing cloud and rain by late in the day, 5-10 mm amounts expected by Wednesday morning. Lows Tuesday 3-7 C and highs 13-15 C.

WEDNESDAY will continue mostly cloudy and showery at times, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY will be a rather unsettled interval with slightly colder temperatures setting in, a brief change to northwesterly winds for perhaps one or two days, temperatures in the range of 8 to 13 C.

By SUNDAY 16th rain and wind likely with a battleground scenario of the cold air in place being tested by a returning Atlantic southwesterly. This seems likely to turn in favour of the milder air by Monday 17th and the rest of the month could see temperatures somewhat above normal values as a result. That would mean highs in the 13-16 C range instead of a more normal 11-13 C.

My local weather keeps on producing warm autumn sunshine and hazy blue skies with some higher overcast at times, highs around 20 C. Some places closer to the west coast were as high as 28 C setting records. This is without a doubt the latest we have managed to avoid turning on the indoor heating here (it has not come on at all since early June). Another result is that the fall colours while nearly full now are quite good this year with very little leaf fall noted yet. Meanwhile, a tenth named storm, Julia, has appeared in the southern Caribbean Sea and is taking aim on Nicaragua where it may make landfall around Sunday as a relatively weak cat-1 hurricane. Ten is a fairly low number for recent decades and the average in the past three decades is around 16-17 named storms.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 9 October, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 October --

-- Temperatures will average near normal,

-- Rainfall will also be close to average in most regions, possibly 25% above normal in the southwest,

-- Sunshine will amount to 75 per cent of normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast with rain, becoming heavier by mid-day, spreading gradually into the eastern half of Ireland by afternoon. Amounts of 10 to 15 mm will be widespread by evening. Highs 14 to 16 C. Rather windy at times (south to southwest 40-60 km/hr) but less windy by afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT will bring an end to the rain followed by partial clearing, lows 6 to 9 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and rather cool with highs 13 to 15 C.

TUESDAY will bring increasing cloud followed by showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY further showers likely, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY, a mixture of sun and cloud, rain approaching west coast by late afternoon. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 13 to 15 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will bring outbreaks of rain and moderate westerly winds, rather chilly temperatures in the 8-11 C range.

After SUNDAY 16th, milder for most of the following week and possibly towards the end of the month, highs 13 to 16 C, frequent rain which may become heavy at times as early as Monday 17th.

My local weather was sunny, hazy and very warm on Saturday with highs into the mid-20s. There were excellent views of the full moon near bright planet Jupiter this evening. The moon reaches full phase today.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 10 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 October --

-- Temperatures will average near normal (highs near 14 C, lows near 6 C)

-- Rainfalls will be near normal to 25 per cent above normal, with heavier falls towards end of the interval (partly beyond the seven days)

-- Sunshine will likely be below average despite some generous amounts today.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, and moderate westerly breezes 40-60 km/hr, stronger near west coast and in the north, where there could be a few passing showers. Highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT increasing cloud, lowest temperatures may be early in the night as a result. Lows 4 to 8 C, closer to 10 C in west by morning though, as rain approaches.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with a few showers or intervals of light rain. A heavier band of rain may develop in some central counties. Highs 12 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY variable cloud, rain at times, heavier near south coast late and overnight into Thursday morning. Clearing across the north as this disturbance moves through. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY will bring variable cloud, some further outbreaks of light rain in south and west mainly, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY will be windy with outbreaks of rain, cool. Lows near 7 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

SATURDAY variable cloud, showers, cool, lows near 7 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

From SUNDAY into the following week, several rather powerful disturbances may move through the region, details may change of course, but the entire interval (16th to 19th) could produce intervals of heavy rain especially in west Munster and possibly Connacht. Details will depend on the exact track of these lows. Temperatures may be rather variable as these lows could drag in some milder air briefly. Later in the week (after 19th) it appears likely to turn colder for several days, then back to a mild southwest flow towards end of the month.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and mild with highs near 20 C. Expecting a brief interruption from a weak Pacific frontal system later Monday, which is Thanksgiving Day here in Canada. Then another week of mild, dry and sunny weather should follow that. Much colder weather has moved into eastern regions of North America.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 11 October, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 Oct --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.

-- Rainfall will continue to mount up towards 150% of normal values, especially towards the end of the interval, 18th to 20th expected to be quite wet in many areas.

-- Sunshine may be challenged to reach normal except possibly in Leinster which could see more frequent breaks in the overcast.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, becoming more persistent in north Connacht by afternoon (10 mm expected there). Highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers, lows 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud, possibly some outbreaks of rain later in the day in the south, eventually spreading further north. Highs 13 to 15 C.

THURSDAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals developing, some showers likely, lows near 9 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will turn slightly cooler with occasional rain, highs near 12 C.

By SUNDAY it will be turning milder with rain at times, highs near 16 C.

The period from MONDAY 17th to WEDNESDAY 19th looks quite unsettled with frequent rainfalls in the 30-50 mm total range. Highs 15 to 17 C.

The rest of the month may remain slightly milder than average too, with occasional rain.

My local weather turned cloudy as a weak front slid south, with gusty winds and traces of rain from passing sprinkles of rain. The high was around 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 12 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS have changed somewhat in today's guidance, as milder air seems to be held off to the south, so temperatures may average slightly below normal, rainfall still expected to exceed normal values by end of the week, and mostly cloudy skies will not allow much sunshine to break through

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with some heavier outbreaks of rain developing from the southwest, highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT cloudy with showers, lows near 7 C.

THURSDAY also rather cloudy with showers, heaviest in northern counties. Highs 13 to 15 C.

FRIDAY variable cloud, showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY through to middle of the following week, cloudy, winds turning more to southeast and east, rather cool with frequent light rain.

This rather drab weather regime appears likely to continue for quite some time.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with a high near 20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 13 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Oct --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, possibly a bit above in parts of the east.

-- Rainfalls will amount to 25-50 per cent above normal values.

-- Sunshine will be infrequent, may reach 50 per cent of normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few outbreaks of rain or showers, more persistent rain arriving in the northwest late in the day. Highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with showers, lows 5 to 8 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy to windy, with intervals of rain in the north, showers in the south. Highs 12 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy to windy (southwest to west 50-80 km/hr), with occasional showers. Lows near 5 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

SUNDAY will be overcast with occasional rain, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

MONDAY an active low moving up from the south will spread rain into most regions. It could turn a bit milder in the south and east, lows around 10 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

The rest of the week will continue unsettled with a storm track likely to run more to the east, which may limit any warming potential, so would expect highs 11 to 14 C. This rather drab pattern will show slight improvements with drier days to follow, but it may then turn quite cold, so that any precipitation could include higher elevation sleet by around the end of the month.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with a high near 21 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 14 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS have been changing over the past few days, now we're somewhat back to where we started with a milder outlook setting up. Temperatures seem likely to average 2-3 C above normal for the coming week. Rainfall will be about normal, or possibly 25% above normal in some parts of the west and north. Sunshine will be challenged to reach 75% of normal (now close to 3h daily). It will be quite windy at times as strong depressions form off to the west, bringing in strong southwest winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with a few sunny intervals in the east and south. Showers will continue in the west and north. Eventually it will turn rather windy (southwest 40-70 km/hr). Hghs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with showers, lows near 7 C.

SATURDAY will become windy with periods of rain, highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY will also be windy, with an interval of strong southwest winds for Connacht and west Ulster reaching 70-110 km/hr. Not quite as windy elsewhere (60-90 km/hr). Variable cloud with passing showers, sometimes longer intervals of rain. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

MONDAY will be breezy and mild with showers but also some brighter intervals, lows near 11 C and highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY will continue mild with showers, lows near 10 C, highs near 15 C.

The trend from then on will be gradually back towards more average temperatures for late October, with less frequent rain as high pressure takes a more active role at times.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and warm with a high near 22 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 15 October, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue mild and increasingly wet, over the next week to ten days, with the south coast perhaps most at risk of excessive rainfalls by end of that interval. Sunshine a bit deficient and winds sometimes quite strong.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become breezy to windy, with partly cloudy skies across some regions, more frequent showers developing in west then spreading to other regions later. Some embedded thunderstorms with hail, could be rather intense over parts of Connacht and west Munster. Winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr with some higher gusts possible near storm cells. Be aware of potential for local disruptions (inland northwest to midlands). Rather cool with highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT rain and wind easing off, scattered showers then partial clearing. Lows 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY some dry and bright intervals in the morning but rapidly changing to windy, wet conditions as southerly gales develop, veering to southwest by evening, 60 to 90 km/hr (local gusts to 110 km/hr possible in northwest). About 15-25 mm rain can be expected, mostly in the afternoon and evening. Highs 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY improving conditions will set in overight and most of the day should be partly cloudy and mild with morning lows 8 to 10 C, afternoon highs 14 to 17 C.

TUESDAY also rather mild, partly cloudy to overcast, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

Further stormy weather is expected to develop mid-week, perhaps taking most of Wednesday to reach Munster, and early Thursday for other regions, once it arrives, this will result in strong winds and heavy rains with temperatures steady around 13-15 C. A number of secondary lows are likely to follow in behind this storm and prolong the wet weather which may begin to approach excessive totals in the south by the following weekend (22nd-23rd). Temperatures will remain in the 13-15 C range. Strong east winds mid-week and on a few occasions later on. Still indications of a cooler interval to end the month.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with high cloud and a high near 19 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 16 October, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain mild, wet and sometimes quite windy.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out rather tranquil in most parts, with partly cloudy or even sunny skies at times. Cloud will increase rapidly mid-day and winds will also increase to southeast 50-80 km/hr, with rain, heavy at times, sweeping north during the afternoon and evening. Highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT intervals of strong south to southwest winds, rain becoming showery and perhaps squally with slight risk of thunderstorms. Near the west coast, winds could reach 70-110 km/hr, more widespread 50-80 km/hr south to southwest winds. Lows 10 to 12 C. By morning, total rainfalls around 20-30 mm.

MONDAY the strong winds and some further rain will continue to affect Connacht and the midlands, west Ulster, to early afternoon. Some clearing elsewhere as winds gradually ease. The afternoon will be more tranquil as the strong winds pull away towards Scotland. Highs 14 to 16 C.

TUESDAY will start out dry with hazy sun through high cloud, winds will gradually increase, followed by outbreaks of light rain. Lows near 9 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will be overcast with periods of rain, moderate southeast winds, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY will be windy with rain or showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

It now appears that the weather will remain very unsettled for most of October to follow these disturbances, with further wind and rain likely around the weekend of 22nd-23rd and from time to time during the following week. It may therefore remain rather mild in a south to southwest flow.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and warm with a high near 21 C. Even higher temperatures were reported closer to the Pacific coast with some places reaching 27 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 17 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 Oct --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will amount to 25-50 per cent above normal in south, closer to average further north.

-- Sunshine will be around 75 per cent of normal.

-- Sometimes quite windy from the south to southwest.

FORECASTS

TODAY strong westerly winds will continue for the morning hours in Connacht and Ulster, while easing gradually elsewhere. Skies will become partly cloudy, and it will remain rather mild with highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy with some clear intervals in the inland south and east, lows 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY increasing cloud, rain by afternoon or evening in parts of south and west. Highs 14 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY overcast with outbreaks of rain, heavy at times in Munster. Winds becoming strong southeast 50-80 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C. About 20-30 mm rain possible in Munster.

THURSDAY rain tapering to showers, windy at times, southeast to south 50-80 km/hr. Lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY overcast with occasional rain, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

The outlook for next weekend is for further outbreaks of rain and strong winds at times, temperatures 11 to 14 C.

The following week towards the end of October looks likely to continue this unsettled trend with temperatures possibly a bit more variable.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and very warm for this time of year, a high of 21 C recorded.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 18 October, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 Oct continue similar, very mild, wet and mostly cloudy with occasionally strong southerly winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some brighter intervals despite increasing high cloud. Rain will move onto the south coast by afternoon, and will overspread Munster during the rest of the day. Winds increasing to southeast 40-60 km/hr. Highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT rain will continue to push further north, eventually most locations will see 10-15 mm. Lows 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY further outbreaks of rain, with a few brighter spells in the mix, highs 14 to 16 C.

THURSDAY some heavier rain may reach the south coast and spread further north. By this point, 40-60 mm in total for parts of the south, although just 20-40 mm for most other regions. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

The weather pattern seems likely to lock into this very mild and occasionally wet regime with a number of strong lows expected over the weekend and through the following week. Eventually the south coast may see excessive totals above 100 mm, with a risk of flooding especially in south Cork and Waterford.

My local weather on Monday was sunny but quite hazy from woodsmoke, and the high was around 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 19 October, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue very mild, rather wet and cloudy with occasional strong south to southwest winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some intervals of rain and moderate southeast to south winds 30-50 km/hr. Highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT rain heavy at times in the south, more showery further north. Lows 9-12 C.

THURSDAY will continue cloudy with occasional rain, moderate to strong southerly winds developing. Highs 14-16 C.

FRIDAY will be overcast with occasional rain, moderate south to southwest winds continuing. Lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy and mild with occasional rain, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C.

This pattern looks set to continue all through next week and possibly for two more weeks; temperatures may reach values as high as 17 C during this period. Eventually the south coast will begin to accumulate rather excessive total rainfalls of 70-100 mm. Hopefully it will be spread out enough to prevent severe flooding. Further north the outcome is not expected to be as extreme.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with a high near 16 C. Our long dry, warm spell is going to end gradually with light rainfalls expected by about this coming weekend, and temperatures closer to average. Meanwhile, the eastern regions of North America have turned quite chilly and there have been some significant lake effect snowfalls.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 20 October, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, very mild and sometimes rather wet with sunshine at times, possibly keeping pace with the late October average amount.

Note: heavy thunderstorms developed along several frontal troughs in yesterday's weather pattern. Although this is not expected to return today, it has had the effect of clearing out the cloud over many areas for much of today, so the outlook is improved briefly anyway.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some pleasantly warm sunshine with cloudy intervals developing. By late in the day, some showers will return to the south coast. Highs 14 to 18 C.

TONIGHT rain will spread north and cover most of the country. There could be isolated thunderstorm activity again. Lows 12 to 14 C.

FRIDAY rain will taper off to showers, although remaining rather steady across parts of the north. About 15-25 mm rain in total. Highs 13 to 15 C.

SATURDAY rain will continue fairly frequently across Connacht and Ulster, north Leinster, highs 12-14 C. Further south, a partly cloudy and quite mild regime with south to southwest breezes, highs 14-16 C.

SUNDAY to TUESDAY this unseasonably mild weather will continue with just a few scattered outbreaks of rain, highs each day 14 to 17 C. Nights will remain very mild (10-13 C).

By about WEDNESDAY another quite active storm system will arrive from the southwest and there could be some outbreaks of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms. Highs near 17 C.

This unsettled, mild pattern is likely to continue with only minor variations to the end of October. The guidance is now suggesting that the heavier south coast rain may shift a bit closer to the southeast including higher portions of Wicklow and south Dublin. Those regions are now under watch for eventually excessive amounts within a week to ten days. The rest of the country may see somewhat less significant totals but it will be rather wet everywhere on the whole, so be prepared.

My local weather has not quite exhausted the supply of very pleasant days, as it was sunny and quite hazy on Wednesday with a high near 16 C. We still haven't had a killing frost and the trees retain most of their colorful leaves, even up into higher elevations outside town where normally the snow would be settling by now.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 21 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 21-27 Oct --

-- Temperatures will average about 3 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 100 per cent above normal, heaviest in south.

-- Sunshine will average a little below normal with a few breaks on some days.

-- Occasionally strong south to southwest winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mild with outbreaks of rain, rather showery but fairly persistent with 10-15 mm amounts likely. Moderate southeast winds veering to the south later (40-60 km/hr), highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast and foggy at times with light rain in the south, heavier rain in Connacht and Ulster. Lows 9 to 12 C.

SATURDAY intervals of rain across Connacht and Ulster, north Leinster, while further south skies will be partly cloudy. Very mild as a result, highs 12-14 C north but 14-17 C south, central. Further rain will develop late in the day.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of rain, lows 11 to 13 C and highs 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY will bring variable cloud, some outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and mild, with rain becoming heavier later in the day. Highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will be windy with outbreaks of heavy rain likely, winds southerly 60-90 km/hr. Highs near 16 C.

It may stay very mild after that disturbance with another powerful low expected around Friday or early Saturday. Temperatures will stay in the mid-teens. Eventually the accumulated rainfalls across the south may prove excessive at 70-100 mm within a week to ten days.

My local weather started out hazy but dull, then brightened despite a lot of smoky haze dimming the sun, with a high around 13 C. We are expecting the first rain in several weeks over the next day or two, but only small amounts are expected.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 22 October, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead remain mild and wet, limited amounts of sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see further outbreaks of rain this morning in parts of Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster, but these areas will be drier by afternoon with highs 13 to 15 C. Partly cloudy and mild further south, rain only returning this evening. Highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT rain will move gradually north and will become rather heavy at times, 10-20 mm amounts likely, lows 9-12 C.

SUNDAY rain tapering to showers, isolated thunderstorms. Highs 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy to overcast, a few showers mostly in the north, westerly breezes 30-50 km/hr. Lows 8-10 C and highs 13-15 C.

TUESDAY partly cloudy, isolated showers, rain by evening. Lows 8-11 C and highs 13-15 C.

WEDNESDAY windy and mild with rain heavy at times, winds southerly 60-90 km/hr, lows 8-10 C and highs 14-16 C.

It will remain rather mild and unsettled, with temperatures slowly backing off to more average late October values by the end of the month.

My local weather was overcast and cool with drizzle and fog, highs around 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 23 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 23-29 October remain very mild and rather wet, with occasional strong southerly winds, sunshine quite infrequent.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, some rather heavy, and scattered thunderstorms moving into the southeast and later central counties. Mild with highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will be misty with a few more showers, mild with lows 10 to 12 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter spells in the south and east, moderate westerly winds 40-60 km/hr. Highs 13 to 15 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, rain in western counties by afternoon. Lows 9 to 11 C, highs 13 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will become windy with outbreaks of rain, 15-25 mm likely. Southerly winds 60-90 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY will continue very unsettled with risk of strong southerly winds developing. As details on this may change up to mid-week, will leave timing of those stronger winds to then. Temperatures will remain quite mild especially at night, in the 10-15 C range.

The outlook for the end of October and early November is somewhat cooler in stages, although that transition keeps moving back towards November. Temperatures will remain in the 7 to 10 C range even so.

My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy, generally dry until a shower of mixed rain and graupel in the late afternoon, highs around 7 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 24 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Oct --

-- Temperatures will average 4 to 5 deg above normal. Nights will be much milder than average.

-- Rainfalls will vary from about 150-200 per cent of normal near west and south coasts, to near normal further north, although rain will be frequent in all areas.

-- Sunshine may struggle to reach 50-75 per cent of normal amounts.

-- Very strong winds may develop at times, with west and south coast most at risk.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast. Only a few brief and light showers are expected, other than some moderate rain near the west coast at times this afternoon and evening. Moderate southwest winds 40-60 km/hr. Highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will remain partly cloudy to overcast, rain staying confined mostly to west coast. Lows 8-10 C.

TUESDAY will be breezy and mild with rain becoming heavier near west and then south coasts, moving gradually further inland late in the day and overnight. Highs 14 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out windy and wet with outbreaks of rain heavier near west coast but fairly widespread in the 15-25 mm range. This rain will taper to showers as strong south winds veer to southwest. Near Connacht and Ulster coasts, winds of 80-120 km/hr are possible, more moderate but relatively blustery conditions elsewhere (60-90 km/hr). Lows 8-10 C and highs 14-16 C.

THURSDAY will remain breezy and very mild with further outbreaks of rain, moderate south winds 40-60 km/hr, lows near 10 C and highs 13 to 15 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY may bring several intervals of strong winds as more disturbances move north near the west coast, with brief intervals of wind gusts 80-110 km/hr. In general, rather windy throughout with southerly to southwesterly winds 70-90 km/hr. Lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C both days, and further rainfalls of 10-20 mm.

SUNDAY will continue breezy and unsettled with highs near 14 C. By end of the weekend, total rainfalls in parts of coastal west Munster could exceed 100 mm, local stream flooding will develop gradually as the rain will come on a fairly sustained basis. Amounts over much of the country otherwise will be heavy but perhaps not quite reaching significant flood risk levels, however, a watch for this would be in order.

There are no strong indications of a shift in pattern into the following week (31 Oct to 6 Nov) and there could be further strong winds and locally heavy rains with temperatures likely to remain at least a bit above average if not quite as anomalous as this coming week.

My local weather was mostly cloudy with brief falls of hail mostly over higher terrain north of my location. I took a drive up into the local mountains where you can see patchy snow cover now starting around 1400m elevation, but as winds have stayed rather light, the fall colours are still in evidence even where it has snowed.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 25 October __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain very mild, wet at times, with intervals of very strong winds possible.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be relatively dry in most of the east, partly cloudy at times, with moderate south backing to southeast winds. Highs 14 to 16 C. Rain will spread onto the west coast but will make only slow progress further inland.

TONIGHT heavy rain will spread into most parts of the country and in particular up the southeast coast towards Dublin. Amounts of 10 to 20 mm will be widespread, locally 25-30 mm possible. Windy with southeast to south winds of 70-100 km/hr. Lows 10-13 C.

WEDNESDAY the wind and rain will continue to push north and there could be very strong wind gusts with a frontal passage, peaking at about 120 km/hr in parts of Connacht and west Ulster, somewhat more moderate elsewhere, then a slight clearing trend will follow by mid-day with further outbreaks of rain developing in a continuing strong south to southwest wind. Temperatures steady around 13-15 C.

THURSDAY will continue unseasonably mild with outbreaks of heavy rain and an interval of strong winds gradually developing off the west coast during the mid-day to late afternoon hours. This front will then move across the country Thursday night bringing south to southwest gales 70-110 km/hr. Rain could become quite heavy during this frontal passage, with risk of squally thunderstorm activity also. Temperatures all through this interval 14-16 C peaking possibly around 17-18 C during the overnight frontal passage.

FRIDAY the very strong winds in the early morning will gradually moderate with partly cloudy skies following for part of the day, and then overcast with outbreaks of rain later, temperatures dropping slightly to around 12-14 C but staying very mild during the night.

SATURDAY to MONDAY will continue unsettled with further outbreaks of rain. This pattern looks set to become prolonged into early November and there are new indications of a risk that heavy rain already mentioned in forecasts for the south coast might spread into central counties and much of the country during the period (rainfalls of 110-130 mm in total are currently shown through ten days, but as this feature tends to bounce around somewhat at that time scale, just a heads up that something rather extreme is possible in this prolonged southerly interval, if any well developed systems form over the Biscay region and head north into Ireland they will have the unusually warm sea surface temperatures from this previous hot summer to fuel their growth. The actual details are no doubt going to "chop and change" as we get closer to the most disturbed period of weather.)

Meanwhile the inevitable has happened here, snow was falling at a good pace this morning and produced a rather sloppy covering of about 8 cms with temperatures not much higher than 2-3 C for most of the day. This has partially melted especially on the roads.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 26 October, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain very mild, wet and sometimes quite windy, for at least another week to ten days.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy to windy especially over western counties this morning where southwest gales 70-110 km/hr will prevail. A few passing squally showers with some thunder possible, then sunny spells and mild, followed by overcast skies and outbreaks of rain by afternoon and evening. Highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain, very mild with lows around 12 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, moderate southerly winds and occasional showers, highs 14-16 C. By the overnight hours winds will increase to southerly 50-80 km/hr in most places and squally showers will develop with a sharply defined front developing through central then eastern counties during the night. Temperatures will settle in around 14 C overnight.

FRIDAY the frontal system will make its exit during the morning rush hour in Leinster, with squally showers and a sharp wind shift to westerly 60-90 km/hr. Any breaks in the overcast that may follow will be quickly replaced by further cloud and rain in a renewed southerly flow, temperatures steady 12-15 C.

SATURDAY will be overcast and wet at times with highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY details are uncertain but likely to be unsettled, mild with some rain both days. Highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY (1st Nov) potential exists for a strong disturbance moving up from the south with heavy rains and strong winds, this has not appeared in full force on all forecast model guidance yet although where absent there's evident potential for something similar, timing on this is probably plus or minus 24 hours at this point (the most intense depiction on the GFS model crosses the country from southwest to northeast during the day Tuesday). The European model has intense development also, somewhat later (towards Tuesday night into Wed 2nd Nov). This period was already under a watch for strong development, and remains a concern as rainfall amounts could be excessive following on this rather wet week already underway. Here again the GFS is showing about 50 mm rainfall potential (and wind gusts over 100 km/hr), on top of what already will have fallen by then (also about 50, so a total of 100 mm or more by mid-week). It's likely to be a few days before there's a clear indication of timing and track of any storm system in that time period (let's say from late Monday 31st to early Thursday 3rd as the outer edges of when this may come together). What seems a bit more certain is that temperatures will be in the 9-13 C range.

The most likely further evolution of this situation is for more variable cyclonic weather to follow, with temperatures not quite as mild as this week but around 8-11 C. The pattern looks as though it might be capable of producing further strong wind events and a more variable temperature regime as the steering becomes more westerly.

My local weather was partly cloudy and cool with yesterday's snow gradually disappearing despite highs only around 5-6 C. Higher up the snow cover is more persistent and the mountains were covered in low cloud that became a dense fog at pass elevations.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 27 October, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 27 Oct to 2 Nov --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 4 deg above normal, milder than normal especially during overnight hours.

-- Rainfalls will gradually amount to about twice normal values in parts of the south and west, possibly also central counties, east and north may come out closer to average. Some of the heavier rainfalls will occur early Friday, mid-day to late Saturday, and Monday-Tuesday.

-- Sunshine will be about half to three quarters of the normal amount.

-- Very windy at times from the south to southwest.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter spells, and showery outbreaks of rain, with dry intervals possible at times. Mild with moderate south winds 40-60 km/hr, highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT a strong frontal system will sweep across the country with outbreaks of heavy rain possibly including some thunderstorms, squally winds veering sharply towards morning from southerly 50-80 km/hr, to westerly. Lows near 12 C but temperatures may rise in some eastern counties during the overnight hours to 15-17 C. Some fast accumulations of 20-30 mm rain in the midlands and inland west could cause brief road travel disruptions, although during the late overnight so check on conditions if you have an early start Friday as the after effects of this could take a few hours to subside.

FRIDAY this front will be near the east coast during the morning rush hour clearing east before mid-day, squally winds will then abate somewhat before returning to a moderate southwest flow with any clear breaks brief and followed by overcast skies and heavy rain showers at times by late in the day especially in west Munster. Temperatures steady 12 to 15 C, winds becoming south-southwest 50-80 km/hr.

SATURDAY more heavy rain is likely at times with southeast winds and temperatures steady 10-13 C, turning a bit milder in the south as the rain pushes slowly further north. Amounts of 20-40 mm are possible with further flooding, west Munster and parts of the midlands most at risk.

SUNDAY will perhaps bring slightly better conditions with partly cloudy to overcast skies and rain somewhat more showery and briefer. Lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

MONDAY (31st) to WEDNESDAY (2nd Nov) still under watch for possible complex storm development and possibly in two waves moving through on Monday evening and Tuesday night. The details are still unclear with different guidance offering different details on intensity and track. It seems likely to be wet, windy and still rather mild (10-12 C).

The interval to follow will continue rather unsettled and somewhat cooler with temperatures closer to the seasonal averages for early November. Take note though this is probably a scenario where eventually a powerful storm could emerge as yet undetected in two or three weeks.

My brief summary for winter prospects 2022-23 would be that indications are mixed and there could be some wintry spells with cold temperatures and snowfalls, together with milder and sometimes stormy intervals. At the moment I can't really rule out any outcome as patterns like the present one have evolved into considerably different outcomes in years past, some of them mild and stormy winters and some more variable including one or two quite cold winters. Some may recall that the weather turned quite mild for the first part of November 2010 before that cold spell hit later in the month. So I will keep watching pattern development and try to give some lead time for any large-scale changes but this unsettled Atlantic driven regime could last well into the winter with the sea surface temperatures being quite high.

My local weather on Wednesday was cool and partly cloudy to overcast after a light fall of wet snow early in the day; highs reached about 4 C. Sunbeams through breaks in heavy overcast made for some dramatic views of the still quite colourful hills around town, snow has retreated to mountaintop elevations above all that. I should get interesting pictures if this sort of contrasting light and shadow persist on Thursday.