Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 9 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar to yesterday's outlook, rather cold, windy, and unsettled much of the time although with a near average amount of sunshine and rainfall only reaching normal amounts in the west and north.

FORECASTS (also little change until the discussion of longer range trends)

TODAY will be partly cloudy with strong westerly winds and passing showers, becoming wintry on higher ground in the west and north in particular, winds 50-80 km/hr and highs 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy, windy and cold with passing wintry showers, mostly hail at lower elevations, possibly snow on higher ground. There will be a slight risk of thunder too. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr. Lows -1 to +2 C.

THURSDAY will be even slightly colder again with more widespread mixed wintry showers, some accumulations of snow likely on hills in Ulster and Connacht. Winds west to northwest 50-80 km/hr, but easing later in the day. Lows near -1 C and highs near 5 C (7 C south coast).

FRIDAY will see a very slight warming trend setting in, with winds south to southwest 40-60 km/hr increasing to 60-90 km/hr late in the day, still some wintry showers at first, also some brighter spells, lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C. Rain will sweep in overnight lasting until the early morning hours.

SATURDAY will become windy (SW 60-90 km/hr) with intervals of rain, becoming more showery later, milder with highs near 12 C.

SUNDAY will begin to turn colder in westerly winds of 60-90 km/hr, passing showers and highs near 9 C.

MONDAY will also be rather cool with a few showers, some possibly wintry on hills in the north, highs near 7 C. Weather systems seem to be accelerating and the cold may fade out by Monday night in another fast-moving mild sector. Temperatures could remain close to the daytime high for the overnight period.

The balance of next week looks somewhat milder, although it's still a fast-moving mixture of milder and colder spells in a fast westerly flow. Temperatures will probably be closer to 10 C which is close to average. And there are still tentative signs of higher pressure settling in closer to Ireland although the signals are weak and somewhat intermittent for that.

My local weather remained rather mild on Tuesday with more slow melting taking place under mostly overcast skies (a high altostratus layer mainly, the sun dimly visible through it) and highs reached about 5 C. The snow pack is softening up as well as slowly shrinking but it still looks like deep winter here with now a 25-30 cm snow pack.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 10 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, rather cold but with considerable variation through the period, an average just below the normal for mid-February; showery rainfalls reaching almost normal amounts in parts of the north and west, staying near half of normal further east; sunny spells most days and an average sort of total for that, and rather windy much of the time.

FORECASTS

TODAY will feature some cold sunny spells in the east and south, more frequent wintry showers further north and over higher parts of the west. Occasionally a shower will manage to hold together all the way to the east coast, but rainfall amounts there will be lower. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr in exposed areas, veering more northwesterly later in the day. Highs 5 to 8 C, coldest in Ulster and north Connacht.

TONIGHT will bring some clear intervals and brief frost that may already be fading before sunrise, lows -3 to +3 C. Isolated wintry showers will continue in the north and west.

FRIDAY will be bright and cold at first, then milder by afternoon and evening in a strengthening south to southwest wind reaching 50-80 km/hr by the evening hours. Rain will spread in overnight. Highs 6 to 9 C by late afternoon, steady temperatures overnight.

SATURDAY will be breezy to windy and rather mild with about 10-15 mm rain expected (including that earlier overnight amount). Winds veering to westerly 50-80 km/hr, highs 10 to 12 C.

SUNDAY will start with intervals of rain in the overnight and early morning, then partial clearing will follow; another batch of rain is likely by Sunday evening and overnight. Lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

MONDAY will turn quite cold with strong northwest winds likely, especially if a low tracking southeast across Britain deepens as much as some guidance indicates. Winds may then reach 70-100 km/hr in exposed areas. Lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

TUESDAY will become milder from early morning, with rain at times, highs near 12 C.

The rest of next week is looking rather mild with rain at times. A more variable interval of fast westerly flow is expected with mild and cold interludes alternating fairly rapidly. Some very strong winds could develop in that period, before things begin to settle down a bit later in the month.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with high cloud and very mild, reaching about 8 C (it would likely have been 12-15 C without the snow pack cooling the surface layers). This is leading to a more rapid reduction of the snow pack which is now down to about 20-25 cm.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 11 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 Feb 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal, possibly 2 deg in parts of the east.

-- Rainfall will average near normal values to 25 per cent above normal in places.

-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal to near normal.

-- The persistent westerly winds, sometimes backing more southerly, will continue at similar intensity to the past week (mostly moderate).

FORECASTS

TODAY will see a steady increase in cloud, dimming the morning sunshine fairly early on then thickening to a lower overcast by afternoon, followed by outbreaks of rain bringing 10-15 mm through the overnight period. Winds will gradually increase to south-southwest 50-70 km/hr. Highs by late afternoon around 8-10 C.

TONIGHT will be breezy to windy and wet with temperatures steady 8-10 C.

SATURDAY will see partial clearing with bands of showers redeveloping, moderate southwest winds 50-70 km/hr, and highs 9-12 C.

SATURDAY NIGHT will bring intervals of rain and temperatures steady 6-8 C.

SUNDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with outbreaks of rain or showers, highs near 9 C, and winds veering to northwest 50-70 km/hr by late in the day.

MONDAY will start out quite cold and windy with bands of showers, some wintry falls possible on higher ground in the north, and strong northwest to north winds 50-80 km/hr. Later on conditions will moderate to milder with westerly winds and outbreaks of rain. Morning lows around 3 C, afternoon to evening temperatures steady in the range of 7-9 C.

TUESDAY will bring milder air again with occasional rain and highs near 13 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will stay breezy and quite mild with highs around 11 C. Another very mild sector may move through late Thursday or early Friday, followed by windy and colder conditions into Saturday 19th, on the current timetable anyway, in these fast westerly set-ups slight changes upstream can lead to a disruption more of the timing than the actual sequence, but the main point is that the weather all week will remain breezy and unsettled with ups and downs in temperatures but generally rather mild. This pattern currently shows no signs of changing fundamentally into the last third of February but the default change position would always be towards a more settled and generally mild interval if the jet stream stops raging away. January was a lot quieter thanks to the jet stream being rather fragmented and allowing high pressure to settle in over this region.

My local weather continues quite spring-like other than the fact that there is still a lot of snow remaining, but it does lose about 5 cm a day under the warm sun, with highs close to 10 C again. It has turned very warm also in the southwestern U.S. with highs above 27 C in desert areas on Thursday. Much colder air is moving south through central Canada and will gradually settle in over the eastern half of the U.S. this weekend. Although there are some ingredients present for a coastal snowfall, it looks to be rather weak and disorganized before the low moves out to sea, so just 2-5 cm amounts are being predicted.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 12 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS unchanged from yesterday's outlook: rather windy, variable temperatures that may average a bit above normal, and rather wet especially in some parts of the west, with mostly cloudy skies throughout.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few breaks around mid-day, outbreaks of showery rain bringing a further 5-10 mm to some regions, and highs around 10 to 12 C. Winds should remain moderate from the southwest.

TONIGHT will bring on another interval of rain that may be briefly rather heavy with temperatures steady 6-8 C. About 10-15 mm rain could fall across parts of the south, 5-10 mm north.

SUNDAY will begin to turn colder in stages as the rain pushes off to the northeast, followed by variable amounts of cloud and further bands of showers, eventually some of those could turn wintry over higher terrain by Sunday night. Winds will increase to westerly then northwesterly 50-80 km/hr, and temperatures will be steady around 7-9 C falling slightly during the afternoon especially in the north and west.

MONDAY will be quite cold with strong northwest to north winds in the morning, easing somewhat to moderate westerly later in the day. Some outbreaks of rain or (on high ground mostly) sleet, with lows near 3 C and highs about 7 C. Temperatures may begin to edge higher in the south and west by evening as a misty light rain develops.

TUESDAY will become milder with rain, drizzle and fog likely, temperatures gradually increasing throughout the day to near 12 C by late afternoon or evening, moderate southwest winds. About 10-20 mm rainfalls can be expected, 20-30 mm locally could cause some minor flooding.

WEDNESDAY could see some very strong winds developing, and it will be quite mild with highs 13-15 C. Outbreaks of rain or showers will be more likely in the north and near the Atlantic coasts, where some locally heavy falls are possible. Winds westerly 70-110 km/hr and possibly higher gusts.

THURSDAY will remain rather windy with temperatures steady 8-10 C, winds westerly 60-90 km/hr, and some additional rain or drizzle heavier in the west and north.

FRIDAY will turn colder briefly with temperatures sliding down to around 4 C and sleety outbreaks of rain possible, with winds continuing brisk from the west.

Another milder interval appears likely for the weekend of the 19th-20th. With some uncertainty, it appears that rather mild weather may then continue in a southwest flow, and the risk of further intervals of strong winds.

My local weather has remained very mild with another sunny, quite pleasant day with highs around 10 C. The snow pack continues to shrink at a steady pace. We are expecting this to continue but with a slight reduction in the temperatures eventually. A rather minor snowfall event is developing for the east coast of the U.S. by Sunday into early Monday, to be followed by very cold temperatures for several days.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 13 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Feb 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average about 2 to 3 deg above normal but with considerable variations.

-- Rainfalls will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal in the west, to near normal in the east.

-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

-- Strong winds will be a frequent feature especially around mid-week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy, with outbreaks of rain and a risk of thunderstorms with hail. One area of heavy rain has moved across most of the country overnight and will finish its trek through Ulster and north Leinster later this morning. Another area of heavy and possibly squally showers will develop in west Munster and move through south-central counties into south Leinster and the Dublin region by afternoon. Watch for any updates here and elsewhere as this could produce locally severe storm conditions. Eventually total rainfalls of 20-30 mm (including some that has already fallen) will bring some local flooding most likely to peak early this afternoon. Highs around 8 to 10 C. Winds rather variable until the second feature arrives and moves through, then increasing to westerly 50-80 km/hr with potentially higher gusts, veering to northwest 60-90 km/hr by this evening.

TONIGHT will be windy and rather cold with bands of rain or hail showers perhaps becoming wintry on higher ground, winds northwest to north 50-80 km/hr, lows near 3 C.

MONDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, cold with brisk northwest winds 60-90 km/hr backing to westerly and easing by afternoon. Some bands of rain or hail showers are likely, more frequent and widespread in the north and west. Highs near 7 C.

TUESDAY will turn milder in stages, with outbreaks of rain or drizzle and foggy conditions at times. Moderate southwest winds will continue, becoming stronger by evening and overnight. Temperatures will be steady in the 8 to 11 C range.

WEDNESDAY will become very windy and mild at first, turning colder by afternoon and evening. Temperatures will peak at around 12-15 C shortly after sunrise and may stay at that level to mid-day before falling off to 5-8 C by early evening. Winds westerly 80-120 km/hr with locally damaging gusts possible. Some rain mostly over northern counties.

THURSDAY will continue windy and temperatures will drop to lows around 4-6 C for the first part of the day, before slowly rising back towards 10-12 C by Thursday evening and overnight. Another very windy interval could develop with this second surge of mild air. Rain could be heavy at times.

FRIDAY will see another early peak of temperatures followed by steadily falling temperatures, with 12 C at first then 5-7 C later on. Winds westerly 70-110 km/hr. Occasional rain or showers but some dry intervals too.

This rather volatile weather pattern will keep reloading as the jet stream is being forced into a tight gradient just north of Ireland and across Scotland. There could be further active weather systems and similar temperature swings in the following week too.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny again, but with higher pressure forming over BC we had a colder start (around -8 C) and it took until early afternoon to warm beyond 5 C, then the sun was setting so this brief warmth reverted to the cold as skies remained clear. The moon was just about overhead at 9 p.m. as it moves past Orion towards Gemini; full moon is on Wednesday so the moon appeared almost full even though it's still four days away from that.

The weak snowfall event on the east coast has begun and it seems to be coming in a bit stronger now so 10-15 cm amounts may be possible in some places. It is certainly turning very cold after the snow ends, with clear skies and -25 C readings already pressing south into southern Ontario and upstate New York.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 14 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar with quite windy conditions much of the time, in the coming week, with temperatures averaging about 2 deg above normal but with variations day to day. Rainfall will be frequent after today, and will probably add up to near or slightly above normal totals. Sunshine may be fairly close to average with a good start on the eventual totals today.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring a mixture of sunshine and cloudy intervals, with bands of squally showers this morning and early afternoon, feeding in from the northwest so likely to be more frequent in Connacht and Ulster. Best sunshine is probably reserved for the southeast. Rather cold in brisk northwest winds 50-70 km/hr, highs 7-10 C.

TONIGHT will see increasing cloud and any colder temperatures will be early in the night, with a milder trend developing towards morning. Some rain at times in the west. Lows 2 to 5 C.

TUESDAY will be breezy and milder in stages, with occasional rain (5-10 mm expected), some brighter intervals possible, but a tendency to lower cloud and fog by late in the day, when temperatures will be 9-11 C after perhaps 7 C on average in the daytime hours.

WEDNESDAY will become windy with very mild temperatures at first, readings around 12-14 C soon after sunrise, but sliding down towards 5-8 C in the afternoon, with winds westerly 70-110 km/hr, possibly stronger gusts at times in west Ulster towards late afternoon and evening as a tight pressure gradient develops across western Scotland. Occasional rain but also some brighter intervals in the mix.

THURSDAY will be breezy to windy and colder with occasional rain or drizzle, winds still westerly at around 70-90 km/hr, and temperatures steady 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY will bring a stormy interval with details that are still changing in the guidance, at the moment it appears to be a generally very windy day with outbreaks of rain and possibly some sleet or snow in the far north as deepening low pressure tracks through Munster and the midlands towards east Ulster. The current guidance looks a bit like a scale model of storm Darwin (12 Feb 2014) which is to say not quite as intense as that historic windstorm but following a similar track (and similar timing). However, a different result is quite possible as guidance seems to be adjusting run by run to get the details of this storm more precise. It could shift either north or south of that track; south would perhaps mean more of a wintry outcome with strong winds more confined to the south coast while north could mean very mild and windy but not as wet. Stay tuned on this one. On the current guidance the most likely temperature range is 7-9 C in most areas, 3-5 C in parts of the north. This could however change closer to the event. Rainfalls of 10 to 30 mm could be expected from most of the current guidance available.

The outlook for the weekend of 19th-20th is for further windy and sometimes unsettled conditions as the jet stream barely relaxes after the Friday event and more pulses of energy are driven along in a relentless parade of frontal waves. Temperatures would likely remain near normal values. The last week of the month might see somewhat improved conditions, generally mild, with less windy conditions.

My local weather brought on yet another very pleasant sunny day with mild afternoon temperatures after a clear, cold start, but this spell seems to be in transition now to a more overcast and somewhat colder pattern as storms begin to develop over the U.S. Rocky Mountain states, eventually creating a powerful low for the central and then eastern parts of the U.S. and the Great Lakes region. That development is going to take a few days with cold, dry weather now dominating the east after their light to moderate snowfalls on Sunday.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 15 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

(TRENDS will return in a few days after this active spell comes and goes) ...

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy at times, with passing showers, developing into a steady downpour later this afternoon to early evening, with moderate southwest winds of 40-70 km/hr. Highs 8-10 C except 10-13 C in west Munster.

TONIGHT there will be intervals of heavy rain with strong southwest winds 50-80 km/hr. Temperatures steady 8-10 C. About 10 to 20 mm rain likely.

WEDNESDAY will become very windy with a mild morning followed by gradually colder temperatures afternoon and evening. Some further rain is likely but there will be a few brighter intervals. Temperatures 12-14 C in the morning will slide down towards 5-8 C later. Winds westerly 70-110 km/hr, but there is potential for stronger winds in Donegal and parts of Northern Ireland, as storm "Dudley" tracks east through Scotland. Expect some overtopping of sea walls at high tides as the full moon is on Wednesday.

THURSDAY will remain rather windy and cold, with a few showers that could be wintry on higher terrain in the north. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr easing for a time in the afternoon. Morning lows near 3 C and afternoon highs near 7 C except closer to 10 C near south coast.

FRIDAY will be a stormy day as "Eunice" tracks through the country. Most guidance shows the track running from a landfall near the Shannon estuary in the morning hours, to an exit north of Dublin by late afternoon. On that track, the strongest winds would be mostly reserved for the south coast and later on the west coast. Strong south to southwest winds would be followed by northwest gales. Temperatures would likely reach highs of 7-10 C in the south, 5-8 C in the east, and 2-5 C in the north. Outbreaks of snow would be likely in parts of Connacht and Ulster, and it would be sleet turning to rain for parts of Leinster. Squally showers would sweep through the south. Wind speeds could peak at damaging levels (80-120 km/hr) in the west and south, 70-110 km/hr elsewhere (strong east winds would develop for a time in Ulster). There is some guidance showing a track further south which would increase the area covered by snowfall and shift the stronger winds to the southeast or even away from Ireland (in the strongest portion of the storm). I don't have much confidence in this outlying guidance but it needs to be kept in mind as a possible outcome. There is also a bit of a range developing between strongest and weaker guidance on the consensus track, which would indicate some uncertainty about maximum wind speed potential. Some of the more intense guidance would probably warrant orange level warnings in west Munster at least (for wind) as well as various other warnings for wind, rain and snow throughout the country. There is a slight chance of a red level alert being required, that most likely for coastal west Munster.

By FRIDAY NIGHT strong northwest winds would set in, temperatures would be only around 1-3 C in much of the country and some heavy mixed wintry showers would be likely, sleet or snow widespread at times. Winds northwest 70-110 km/hr.

SATURDAY a secondary low may follow quickly behind Eunice and bring intervals of sleet or snow, changing to a cold rain at times, with winds west to northwest 70-110 km/hr, temperatures 2-5 C.

SUNDAY will likely turn milder with occasional rain and highs near 10 C.

The further outlook is for unsettled, sometimes windy weather to continue next week.

It was all change for my local weather after a fabulous week of mild sunshine, Monday turned cloudy and 4-7 cm of snow fell over the region, as a complex storm gets organized mainly to our south. This will take a couple of days to organize and will then head for the Great Lakes region bringing heavy snow from Chicago to central Ontario and southern Quebec Thursday into Friday. Much milder weather will develop for the south central states and later in the week, the eastern U.S. seaboard, which will see rain and 10-15 C temperatures by then (clear and cold today though).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 16 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

Well I suppose it was inevitable that after all that placid weather in January with weeks of almost dead calm under high pressure, the wheel would turn and now we seem to be facing a possible extreme weather event. Lots to get to this morning, and I need to underscore the uncertainty factor with the Friday forecast ...

TODAY will be very mild and quite windy, westerly 70 to 110 km/hr and some potential for higher gusts at times near Atlantic coasts. High tides will be accompanied by unusually high sea states and could result in local coastal flooding (the full moon occurs later today making the pre-storm tidal levels rather high then add on about 0.75 metres or so for the wind enhancement). Highs of 13 to 15 C will be near record values for this date. A gradual cooling trend will be more noticeable in the north after mid-day, with temperatures there sliding down to about 7 C. The south may stay closer to 9-11 degrees. Winds will stay very blustery throughout. Some brighter intervals at first, then isolated squally showers and local thunderstorms possible.

TONIGHT will continue very windy especially up around Donegal and the north coast of Ulster. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr for most but 80-120 km/hr possible up that way. Lows 3-5 C north, 5-7 C south.

THURSDAY will remain quite windy although with a bit of a break around the afternoon, with variable amounts of cloud and some outbreaks of light rain here and there, winds 40-60 km/hr at their least blustery before storm Eunice arrives overnight. Highs near 7 C north to 10 C south.

FRIDAY ... storm Eunice will form rapidly to the west of Ireland on Thursday, and will head towards the south coast, possibly tracking inland through Munster and south Leinster. The guidance is still rather scattered on possible tracks. Before getting to the actual forecast, I can give you this background report ... right now there's an area of extreme upper level winds over the central Atlantic roughly midway from Newfoundland to the Azores. No storm has yet developed along the cold front that trails from storm "Dudley" but a storm will develop there late tonight and through the day tomorrow. Computer models are only as good as the data they receive, and some special efforts have apparently been made to provide extra upper air data for this storm. Hopefully a larger number of these will be provided in the next two or three runs, to give the models every chance to give us a good warning on track and intensity. ... At this point, my forecast needs to be reasonably explicit but with a range of outcomes implied, if the track shifts north or south from what I have chosen at this point, then a different outcome is likely. FYI, my choice of track is through the inland south and midlands towards Dublin and across the Irish Sea into north-central England. Some guidance is further south ... On my estimated track, expect intervals of very strong south to southwest winds near the south coast with potential for local damage (80-130 km/hr possible). Rain would be dominant south of the track outlined, and mixtures of snow, sleet and rain north of the track. That would place much of the accumulating snow over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster, mixed rain and snow closer to sea level there, and probably a brief period of sleet or wet snow ahead of rain in Leinster. The storm would move through quite fast, and most of the very strong winds would be around 0500-0900h. But when the storm has reached the Irish Sea then strong and colder northwest winds would kick in and bring gusts to near 120 km/hr to the west coast and eventually 100 km/hr into the midlands. Temperatures would likely run 8 to 11 C in the milder sector south of the track, near 5 C along the track itself, and 2-4 C further north, possibly a bit colder over higher terrain.

FRIDAY NIGHT into SATURDAY a secondary low packing a punch also, will race along in that northwest flow and bring intervals of sleet, wet snow, changing to rain, with accumulations more likely again in higher parts of the north. Temperatures would be 2-5 C at first, eventually moderating to about 7-9 C late in the day, with SUNDAY turning quite mild again, windy with rain at times. Highs near 10 C.

Next week looks active too, but we'll cross that bridge if it's still there after Eunice.

One last time I want to emphasize that the Friday forecast is more of an educated guess based on which models I think handle these situations best, and it is entirely possible that a shift in storm track will change at least some regional outcomes more to the snow and cold side. There is also a faint possibility of something like a last-minute reprieve from a less active storm, or one that goes so quickly to the north that everyone gets into the milder air and there isn't much snow. These other possibilities are probably in the 1 in 5 range while something close to what I've outlined is the more likely on model consensus at the moment. Also I don't want to confuse the situation by saying vastly different things from the official forecast and of course you should pay attention to that and plan accordingly. I'll continue to tell you what I think is most likely to happen whatever.

My local weather on Tuesday was back to sunshine but a bit colder than last week with a high near 4 C. Even so the sun is getting strong enough now that considerable runoff could be found on the hilly south-facing streets in town. With our recent top up of fresh snow, the pack has returned to around 30 cm on average. The central plains storm is taking shape and will move along rather similar in form to Eunice, only when Eunice hits Ireland this one will be over the Great Lakes region, but they appear quite similar in structure. A heavy snowstorm is predicted from Chicago northeast to Ottawa and freezing rain, sleet and mixed precipitation along the track in places like Toronto and Buffalo NY.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 17 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY will be rather blustery with mostly cloudy skies and some brighter intervals, outbreaks of showery rain dying out for a time this afternoon, with westerly winds 50-70 km/hr backing to southerly 40-60 km/hr towards evening. Highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will become rather stormy with outbreaks of rain, sleet and wet snow. The wet snow is most likely to be persistent in Connacht, some parts of Clare and Tipps, later into South Ulster, and a few higher parts of Leinster. Winds will increase near the south coast to southerly 50-80 km/hr, and further north, will back around more to the east at 30-50 km/hr. Some accumulations of snow are likely by daybreak with 5-10 cm amounts possible but perhaps defined by elevation as well as distance inland from the warming influences of the sea (coastal areas are likely to see mostly rain regardless of location). Overnight temperatures will reach about 1-3 C midnight to 0300h then start rising slowly, except 5-8 C near the south coast.

FRIDAY as storm Eunice travels along the south coast, a rather complex wind pattern will develop with potential for some strong and locally damaging gusts both ahead of the centre and in west to northwest gales behind the centre; those are most likely to be very strong in Kerry and Cork. Even so, interaction with the rugged terrain of west Munster will mean a rather hit or miss outcome to damaging gusts, some places being more exposed to that direction than others. At this early stage, the consensus track guidance seems to indicate that the potential for very strong wind gusts ahead of the low centre will be held off the south coast and will head for southwest England and south Wales. This may not be the final word so check for updates. If so, the wind speeds will actually moderate as the low approaches then pick up to northwest 70-110 km/hr after it passes. That cold northwest airflow will eventually extend to all other regions by mid-day. Rain could then turn back to sleet and wet snow before some dry intervals later in the afternoon. Temperatures will likely peak around 7-10 C in the southeast around 0900h, then drop back to 3-5 C there. In the midlands and central Leinster, expect readings of 3-6 C most of the day. On the west coast, early readings of 4-7 C will drop off gradually in the afternoon. Inland further north, highs of about 2-5 C likely.

FRIDAY NIGHT into SATURDAY, more sleet and snow could fall at times with temperatures near 2 C and winds northwest 50-80 km/hr. A slow moderation in temperature will develop later Saturday with winds more westerly, and highs will reach 8 C with occasional rain.

SUNDAY will become quite mild with highs near 10 C mid-day, and then windy with rapidly falling temperatures by afternoon. Morning showers and isolated thunderstorms will trend to sleet and snow showers later in the day, winds westerly 70-110 km/hr.

MONDAY will once again see a milder trend developing and TUESDAY will be very mild with highs near 12 C, but this too will yield to a colder surge later on and mid-week could be quite a bit colder. More ups and downs are indicated all the way through into early March when some guidance is showing more strong wind potential.

Watch for any updates to the FRIDAY forecast that I might consider posting if the guidance takes an organized shift later on. Otherwise I will definitely post a forecast just after midnight in view of the timing of potential impacts of Eunice and then the regular morning update around 0700h. Stay safe.

M.T. Cranium

Updated forecast for FRIDAY 18 February __ 7 p.m. Thursday 17th Feb

As the guidance gets a better handle on developing storm Eunice, the most significant detail of note is that the storm is tending towards a dual centered structure with a northern (weaker) centre heading towards Connacht and Ulster in phase with the stronger south coast centre. What that probably means is that a flow of somewhat milder air into the eastern portions of the northern centre will tend to limit snowfall potential in the overnight hours in the midlands and some parts of Connacht and Ulster. Otherwise there is still fairly strong potential for 5-10 cm falls in parts of Mayo, Sligo, Leitrim, Donegal and some adjacent portions of other counties. Even there, the overall distribution is likely to be mainly by elevation, hilly areas could see disruptive amounts of snow, coastal areas more of a melting mix.

For the south coast, the more precise timing appears to be 0600 to 0900 hours for the onset of very strong winds that will be mostly located to the west of the low centre, so that they will not reach their full strength until after the low passes. In the sector ahead of the low, moderate south to southwest winds will tend to fall off to near calm around the low centre, so if you get that sequence late tonight towards sunrise Friday, you can expect the blast of stronger west to northwest winds to set in rapidly within a short period. There are red alert warnings out from Met Eireann for Clare, Kerry, Cork and Waterford, but within those counties the outcome is likely to be rather variable depending on distance from the coast and exposure to the west and northwest. You can probably assess your own local risk based on how things went during Darwin in 2014 as this storm has a similar structure near its core (although somewhat less inland penetration of damaging winds can be expected with Eunice).

For Dublin and the inland southeast, expect a more gradual ramping up of winds through the morning to peak around 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. with a steady veering in direction southwest to northwest, temperatures around 5-8 C at first then falling off to around 2-4 C with a cold blast from the northwest, and mixed wintry showers. There could be some heavy snow showers on higher ground south of Dublin.

Depending on how guidance evolves, there may be another update before the normal forecast time, or I may just move the forecast time up to around 0300-0400h.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 18 February, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY: Very windy for several hours starting around 0600h in the southwest and spreading along the south coast to reach Wexford by 0800h. The strongest winds, W to NW 110 to 140 km/hr will commence just after the low centre passes, and will persist at that intensity for about two hours. Temperatures in the range of 7-9 C at first will drop to 3-6 C with squally rain showers at times. These conditions will gradually become less extreme further inland although brief strong gusts to 120 km/hr are possible anywhere in Munster and later in south Leinster.

Further north a second low has broken away from the primary low and is tracking northeast through Connacht. Heavy wet snow is falling on its western and northern flanks, 5 to 10 cm amounts are likely. A cold sometimes sleety rain is falling in the somewhat milder sector to the east. This will continue for a few more hours before the primary low pulls in strong northwest winds that break through the northern circulation and bring snow back into the midlands and towards Leinster and Munster. As this precipitation moves further southeast it may begin to mix as sleet or hail showers but some accumulations of snow could develop at times almost anywhere in the country for a time, before the bulk of the moisture of storm Eunice moves off to allow partial clearing late in the afternoon. There will be persistent strong northwest winds 60-90 km/hr with local gusts to 110 km/hr in most areas for most of the day once this early dual-low structure falls apart and the strong northwest flow sets in. Temperatures are around 4-6 C in the east and some parts of the midlands now, will remain in that range to almost mid-day but will start falling gradually in the strong northwest flow.

Some thunder could occur with the stronger wintry showers especially in the western half of the country.

If you do have to travel during this mid-day and afternoon windy spell, expect rapidly changing road and weather conditions along your route. Roads could be temporarily covered with either wet snow or hail making for slippery conditions, and accumulating snow is quite possible on higher terrain such as the Wicklow hills. Earlier, travel is discouraged across the south from now until about 0900h at least, until the primary low has moved past Wexford and after that, travel with extreme caution as there could be trees down in places, debris on roads, and mudslides in hilly areas.

TONIGHT: Continued rather windy and cold, occasional sleet or snow showers likely, winds northwest 50-80 km/hr, lows 1 to 3 C. Some further accumulation of snow on hills.

SATURDAY: Some intervals of sleet and snow could continue especially in north Leinster and east Ulster for a time, before milder air sets in from the west. Winds will back to west-southwest 50-80 km/hr, temperatures rising slowly from morning lows near 2 C to afternoon and evening highs 6-8 C.

SUNDAY: Mild at first with squally rain showers, becoming very windy again (WSW 70-110 km/hr), then squally mixed wintry showers likely as a sharp cold front arrives mid-day. Temperatures steady 8-10 C at first, will drop rapidly to 1-3 C in the afternoon. Plan any travel with these changes in mind as the weather fronts will be moving at a very rapid pace.

MONDAY: Rather cold and windy at first, becoming milder late in the day. Temperatures edging up steadily from near the freezing point to 8-10 C.

TUESDAY: Yet another mid-day cold front is expected, just as it gets really mild again (near 12 C), colder air will blast in from the west and temperatures will take another rapid tumble down towards 3-5 C. Squally showers likely.

General disclaimer ... in this sort of pattern, the sequence is pretty much a given but the timing can change, so if there are changes to these forecasts it would be more likely in terms of timing the frontal passages.

The pattern beyond mid-week looks similar and this is probably more than enough weather detail to absorb without adding a few days more ... meanwhile at my tranquil location, a partly cloudy and rather pleasant if cool day with highs around 2 C, but further east, heavy snow now falling from Indiana and northern Ohio into southeast Michigan and southern Ontario, 15-25 cm amounts expected. That storm will probably morph into the Tuesday frontal passage described above; others out ahead of it will provide service on Sunday and Monday.

I will add any updates if there are significant changes to the forecast. Once again, I would underline the fact that in the south coast counties, the onset of strong and possibly damaging winds will be very rapid and could come almost immediately after a near calm associated with the eye of the storm.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 19 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 Feb 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal but there will be frequent variations either side of normal, see forecasts.

-- Rainfalls will likely amount to near average in general, possibly a bit higher in some parts of the north.

-- Sunshine will do well to reach even half of normal with a lot of cloud expected.

-- Winds often rather strong westerly.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy. Some cold sleety rain will move further east and north, and could turn to snow on hills in Ulster. Variable cloud will prevail for a time mid-day, then more rain is expected later on as temperatures moderate. Winds west-northwest 50-80 km/hr will back to west-southwest at similar speeds. Highs 8-10 C by late afternoon or evening, although colder than that for a good part of the day.

TONIGHT will be breezy, mild and drizzly at times, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr, lows 7-9 C.

SUNDAY will start out with rain and temperatures near 8 or 9 C. Strong westerly winds will develop and temperatures will drop steadily after mid-day, reaching 3-5 C by late afternoon. Showers may begin to turn somewhat wintry on higher ground especially, and there could be squally thunder showers in some western counties. Winds westerly 60-90 km/hr.

MONDAY will remain cold and windy, especially in the north, until late afternoon and evening when it could turn quite a bit milder again. Some outbreaks of rain likely but mostly confined to the north. Winds west-northwest 70-110 km/hr in the north, 50-80 km/hr in the south, in each case easing off somewhat later on with backing to the southwest at 30-50 km/hr. Morning lows 1 to 4 C, afternoon temperatures near 7 C and by evening it could be milder near 10 C.

TUESDAY will once again start off mild and turn much colder. The full extent of this colder push will not be felt in the east or south until the overnight but it will be felt during the afternoon in Connacht and Ulster. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr veering to northwest 50-80 km/hr. Temperatures steady around 10 to 12 C until the front arrives, then falling gradually, becoming steady 4-7 C overnight.

WEDNESDAY will be see a slight rise again in morning to mid-day temperatures with strong southwesterly winds, some dry and partly cloudy intervals, then showers turning rapidly to mixed wintry showers more frequent in west and north, as winds become west-northwest 70-110 km/hr with potential for higher gusts. Temperatures steady around 8 C most of the day, falling rapidly by late afternoon and evening to 1-3 C.

THURSDAY the deepest part of the cold air will move through in the early morning hours and after that it should turn a bit milder in stages, with just a few isolated outbreaks of sleet at first, then rain later, with variable cloud and winds backing to southwest 50-80 km/hr. Morning lows near -1 C then afternoon and evening highs 6-8 C.

FRIDAY will see another spike in temperatures to about 11 C in southerly winds, and this time the higher readings will persist for several days into the weekend of the 26th-27th. SATURDAY and SUNDAY will both remain mild with highs 10-12 C, generally dry at first, although Sunday could turn wet later in the day with a gradual rather slight fall in temperatures (6-8 C) indicated towards the overnight.

Guidance is signalling another strong storm system moving past the northwest coast on Monday 28th, too far off to be very confident about details, the current look is for strong southwest winds and temperatures near 11 C, leading to outbreaks of rain and even stronger gust potential. This one will need to be watched too. The pattern into early March does not change all that much with further spells of unsettled and windy weather then too.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy but fairly mild at 4-6 C, with a bit of melting. The eastern snowfall moved on and was replaced by clear and quite cold weather.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 20 February, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain variable for temperatures, with frequent rain amounting to somewhat above normal totals, limited sunshine, and frequent strong winds from a westerly direction.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with further outbreaks of rain with partial clearing to follow, as temperatures remain steady around 10 to 12 C. Strong westerly winds will develop and temperatures will drop steadily after mid-day, reaching 3-5 C by late afternoon. Showers may begin to turn somewhat wintry on higher ground especially, and there could be squally thunder showers in some western counties. Winds westerly 60-90 km/hr with higher gusts near exposed coasts. Seas will be running high on the west coast with large waves expected, some coastal flooding near high tides.

TONIGHT will become very windy in the north, west to northwest 80 to 120 km/hr in Donegal and 70 to 110 km/hr elsewhere. More high seas and large waves will batter the northwest coast. Squally showers will move well inland with some thunder, and turning sleety on hills. Lows 2 to 4 C.

MONDAY will remain cold and windy, especially in the north, until mid-day when it will turn quite a bit milder again. Some outbreaks of rain likely but mostly confined to the north, partly cloudy skies at times further south. Winds west-northwest 70-110 km/hr in the north, 50-80 km/hr in the south, in each case easing off somewhat later on with backing to the southwest at 30-50 km/hr. Morning lows 1 to 4 C, mid-day temperatures near 7 C and by late afternoon and evening it could be milder near 10 C.

TUESDAY will once again start off mild and will turn colder especially in the north. The full extent of this colder push will not be felt in the east or south until the overnight but it will be felt during the afternoon in Connacht and Ulster. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr veering to northwest 50-80 km/hr. Temperatures steady around 10 to 12 C until the front arrives, then falling gradually, becoming steady 4-7 C overnight (2-5 C north). Showers more mixed and wintry at times in north Connacht and west Ulster by this slightly colder interval.

WEDNESDAY will be see a slight rise again in morning to mid-day temperatures with strong southwesterly winds, some dry and partly cloudy intervals, then showers turning rapidly to mixed wintry showers more frequent in west and north, as winds become west-northwest 70-110 km/hr with potential for higher gusts. Temperatures steady around 8-10 C most of the day, falling rapidly by late afternoon and evening to 1-3 C. Very cold and windy on Wednesday night with wintry showers and significant snow potential in parts of Ulster and Connacht (3-5 cm).

THURSDAY cold and windy, passing wintry showers or outbreaks of sleet at first (snow continuing in north), then more of a cold rain later (still mixing to wintry showers in the north), with variable cloud and winds backing to southwest 50-80 km/hr. Morning lows near -1 C then afternoon highs 4-7 C. Not much colder than that Thursday night with rain at times as milder air begins its return from the southwest.

FRIDAY will be breezy and a bit milder with variable cloud and highs near 9 C. Relatively mild with rain at times over the weekend, and moderate south to southwest winds, highs near 10 C, and windy by Monday 28th, although guidance is not upgrading storm potential for Ireland due to a shift further north of the track of intense low pressure (quite a strong storm indicated for Faeroes and northern Scotland however), more moderate but still quite windy for Ireland, southwest 70-110 km/hr and highs near 12 C with rain at times to end the month.

The first week to ten days of March do not look a lot different from this unsettled, fast-paced regime with ups and downs in temperature quite frequent and coming sometimes in opposite sequence to what we normally expect (mild days, cold nights; that can sometimes be reversed in these fast-moving patterns).

My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy and cold with snow showers at times, highs only reaching about -3 C, as colder air is backing in from the prairies where it has turned very cold (-20 to -25 C common). We are looking at several more days of quite cold weather now with just a limited warming trend late in the week.

Try not to get dizzy following all the ups and downs, the two most active frontal passages will be later today, and late Wednesday into Thursday morning.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 20 February, 2022 __ 4:30 pm ___ Update for upgraded wind speed alerts (watch for these to become "official" possibly within the next few hours)

The current stormy weather has been given the name Franklin since my earlier forecast, and I'm noting that there are currently widespread wind gusts in the 90 to 120 km/hr range. Given that the short-range models continue to show a considerably tighter pressure gradient developing, I think that forecasts currently require an upgrade, whether official or just between us, red alert conditions are likely to develop later this evening towards midnight, persisting several hours overnight, in parts of Donegal and exposed portions of Connacht, winds west-northwest 90-140 km/hr are now considered possible there, and also "orange alert" conditions could spread more widely than anticipated through the rest of the country as these winds funnel down into the north midlands and north to central Leinster in particular, also through the Galway Bay corridor into the south-central midlands. Expect widespread winds in the 80-130 km/hr range later tonight. Other aspects of the forecast as previously mentioned, some squally showers from time to time increasingly wintry going forward with some heavy falls of hail or possibly snow especially on somewhat higher terrain. ... A rather steady progression to milder conditions will follow through the day Monday.

Technical note: My concern is based on the current strength of wind gusts compared to the now existing pressure gradient, when compared to the predicted gradient after 9 p.m. which looks considerably stronger across much of the country. That peaks around midnight to 0300h.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 21 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 Feb 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal, but it will be quite mild at either end of this interval and briefly much colder around Thursday.

-- Rainfalls will average near normal values in the west and north, to 50% of normal in south and east.

-- Sunshine will average near normal.

-- Winds will be generally moderate westerly trending more southerly towards the end of the interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see the overnight stormy conditions in parts of the north and west gradually moderating, although in all parts of the country there could be the occasional strong northwesterly gust to near 90 km/hr. East Ulster might remain windy until mid-day (NW to N 80-120 km/hr). Showers will tend to die out for a while and sunny intervals will be longer especially in the east, midlands and south. Moderate westerly winds will follow and a milder trend already evident will strengthen with readings of 10 to 12 C likely around the afternoon and evening hours.

TONIGHT will remain generally mild with an increasing chance of rain from west to east, and winds strengthening somewhat to southwest 50-80 km/hr. Temperatures will fall to around 5-7 C in most areas, 7-9 C near south coast.

TUESDAY will bring variable cloud and isolated outbreaks of rain in the north, somewhat cooler especially Connacht and Ulster with highs 6-9 C there, only slightly cooler in Leinster and Munster with highs 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out with this same slightly milder air mass over the country but colder air will push in steadily causing a drop in temperatures, at first confined to Connacht and west Ulster, then later in all regions, with morning readings near 8 C and afternoon 4-6 C. Some gusty westerly winds of 70-110 km/hr will develop and squally showers, some with thunder and hail, will develop from west to east later in the afternoon.

THURSDAY will be breezy to windy at times, and quite cold, with passing wintry showers, morning lows -1 to +2 C, and afternoon highs 3 to 7 C. Winds west or west-northwest 50-80 km/hr with potential for higher gusts, but parts of Connacht and west Ulster are very likely to see stronger winds at times by afternoon and evening, 70-110 km/hr at least, stay tuned on this as a somewhat similar set-up to Sunday night could occur, if not quite that strong.

FRIDAY will be broadly similar to today in that cold northwest winds will die off in the morning hours to be replaced by milder southwest winds, outbreaks of rain confined to the north, partly cloudy skies at times further south, morning lows 3 to 6 C and afternoon highs 8 to 11 C.

SATURDAY from this range looks windy and wet, with a possible squally cold front dominating the weather around mid-day, temperatures near 10 C, winds southerly 60-90 km/hr veering more westerly after the front, somewhat colder in the north and northwest by late in the day.

SUNDAY will then bring more windy and occasionally wet weather with temperatures in a similar range of 6 to 10 C.

MONDAY as discussed yesterday, a strong storm is expected to pass by well to the north; this could lead to an increase in southwest winds into the 70 to 110 km/hr range but the storm's stronger core will be closer to northern Scotland and the Faeroes on current guidance.

Beyond that, the pattern continues to look quite similar with more unsettled, windy and variable conditions likely to persist.

My local weather on Sunday here was partly cloudy with light flurries and cold northerly breezes, highs only around -5 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 22 February, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar to yesterday's summary.

FORECASTS

TODAY a gusty cold front passing through Leinster this morning will soon be clearing eastward, some lingering showers in the southeast for another hour or two. Partly cloudy and breezy conditions follow, turning a bit colder in west and north, temperatures dropping gradually to the 6-8 C range north and 8-10 C south. Some further showers likely but not widespread away from higher terrain in north and west. Winds briefly southwest 70-100 km/hr then settling back to 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with increasing cloud after midnight, rain at times in west and north. Lows 3-5 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring some further outbreaks of light rain becoming showery, with a few squally showers marking the arrival of another cold front in the west by mid-day, reaching the east coast by late afternoon. Turning much colder with this front, temperatures steady 8-10 C until it arrives, then falling sharply. Wednesday night will be windy and cold with wintry showers, winds westerly 70-90 km/hr, and lows 1-3 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy, windy and cold with passing wintry showers, some accumulations of snow on hills. Winds west to northwest 70-90 km/hr but could increase to 80-110 km/hr in the north around mid-afternoon. Morning lows 1-3 C, afternoon highs 4-7 C.

FRIDAY will have a cold start but milder southwest winds will then develop, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, some light rain at times near northwest coasts. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

SATURDAY will be windy with showers, possibly squally at times, turning colder by afternoon and evening. Winds south to southwest 70-100 km/hr, veering to westerly 50-80 km/hr. Highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY look breezy and mild, with stormy conditions still shown to be missing the northwest region out to sea and up towards the Faeroes. That being the case, moderate southwest winds are likely both days in the 50-80 km/hr range, with occasional rain and highs 8-11 C.

The week following now has some promise of improving conditions with more settled weather at times thanks to a weak high building up near the south coast for mid-week at least, and when it does move on, only weak Atlantic systems are expected to follow for a while. Temperatures should be near average during this first week of March.

My local weather has turned very cold with partly cloudy skies, the occasional light flurry of snow, and temperatures in the range of -10 to -7 C night and day but it may get even colder than that if skies clear later tonight here.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 23 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 23 Feb to 1 Mar 2022

-- Temperatures will average near normal to 1 deg above normal.

-- Rainfall will average about 50 per cent of normal.

-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.

-- Winds will continue rather brisk from the southwest to west, dropping back to light wind speeds by late Monday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, with outbreaks of light rain this morning turning heavier by afternoon. A sharp cold front will move through the west and north early this afternoon with squally hail showers likely. It will turn steadily colder and showers will become wintry by late in the day. Winds southwest 40-70 km/hr increasing to westerly 60-90 km/hr later. Highs 8-10 C and temperatures near 4-5 C by late afternoon.

TONIGHT will be windy and cold with passing wintry showers, some accumulations of snow likely on hills in the north and west (2-4 cm). Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr and lows -1 to +2 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, windy and cold, with passing wintry showers, some with thunder and hail. Winds west-northwest 50-80 km/hr, possibly a bit stronger in Donegal and north Connacht. Highs 4-7 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional light rain in the north. Moderate southwest winds by afternoon, lows -2 to +3 C, highs 8-10 C.

SATURDAY will be windy with occasional rain mostly confined to western counties, winds southerly 60-90 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will continue rather mild with moderate southwest winds and a little rain at times, highs around 12 C.

By mid-week next week, high pressure will bring sunny to partly cloudy skies and light winds with reasonably mild temperatures although nights could bring slight frosts, highs 10-12 C. This more settled influence may be felt for a while even after the high weakens, as Atlantic fronts following on will not be as strong as in recent days.

My local weather was sunny and cold with highs only around -8 C, and with clear skies overnight lows are dropping towards -15 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 24 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

The trends are similar to previous reports.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy and cold with occasional snow showers, some quite heavy leaving 1-3 cm accumulations and slippery roads, icy above 200 metres asl elevations, the combination of that hazard with blinding sunshine between showers may make driving both difficult and dangerous, would avoid any non-essential travel today, especially this morning. As the afternoon arrives, temperatures both aloft and at the surface will warm up slightly which will change the showers to more complex wintry mixtures of sleet, hail and snow. All day there will be some risk of thunder with heavier showers. Winds westerly 60-90 km/hr will add considerable chill to temperatures near 2 C this morning and 4-6 C by afternoon (lower values in snow covered hilly parts of Connacht and Ulster). It will also become even windier at times in Donegal, some other parts of Connacht and Ulster, around the afternoon hours, when gusts to 110 km/hr could develop.

TONIGHT will see partial clearing and frost, lows near -3 C over snow cover and -1 to +2 C elsewhere. Any lingering wintry showers will weaken and die out for a while.

FRIDAY will start out dry and cold, frost will gradually dissipate, and winds will slowly pick up after a nearly calm start away from coasts, with southwest winds developing, highs 6-9 C.

SATURDAY will become windy with occasional light rain or drizzle, more persistent near Atlantic coasts. Winds southerly 60-90 km/hr. Lows 3-5 C and highs 8-11 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy, and mild. That strong ocean storm that I've mentioned will be passing by Sunday night and now it seems to have edged back a bit closer to Donegal Bay so there may be an interval of 70-120 km/hr winds in parts of the northwest by late Sunday. Lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C. Some rain is expected although most of the moisture will be near the west and north coast until mid-day and then the front may fragment to showers moving further east.

MONDAY will see a very gradual easing of the strong winds and some clearing, lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C.

Following that, latest guidance is starting to change from any hints of further Atlantic driven fronts to blocking high pressure and there is probably a moderately good chance of a cold spell developing in early March, from a Scandinavian high extending a ridge down towards Ireland. Winds may become increasingly north to northeast as this trend develops and temperatures could drop several degrees below normal by late in the week (around Friday 4 March). Stay tuned on this, as the guidance is not considered highly reliable on this trend yet.

My local weather remained very cold but cloud spread in which kept the day quite chilly but has left the current overnight readings similar to the daytime high of -8 C. There is a bit of ice here and there on sidewalks, and the old semi-frozen snow pack on lawns and in forested areas, which averages about 20-25 cm in town, 30-40 cm in the nearby ski hills. This is that time of year when you can at least drive some place to find bare ground in a valley, if you don't have it locally. The coast has been running rather chilly around 5 C daytime hours but there is no snow below 800 metres around Vancouver now. A fairly heavy snowfall is being predicted for the inland northeastern U.S. late today and Friday as low pressure clashes with super cold arctic air over the Midwest. This low will slide east-southeast to form a coastal storm during the day Friday and then it should start snowing quite heavily across much of New England.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 25 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 25 Feb to 3 Mar 2022

-- Temperatures will average near normal to 1 deg above normal.

-- Rainfalls will average 50 per cent of normal values, possibly lower in the east.

-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal.

-- Winds will often be moderate southwest, sometimes less windy.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start with a cold mixture of cloud and sunshine, winds relatively light, then with increasing cloud this afternoon, moderate south to southwest winds will develop, staying dry except for some drizzle near west coast at times. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with moderate southerly winds and drizzle to light rain mostly in western counties, lows 3 to 6 C.

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional light rain or drizzle near Atlantic coasts, making gradual progress further inland, winds southerly in the range of 50-80 km/hr. Highs 9 to 11 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with moderate to strong southwest winds 50-80 km/hr, possibly closer to 100 km/hr at times in the northwest by late in the day. Small amounts of rain will develop (2-4 mm). Lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

MONDAY will bring gradual clearing from the west, with a few remnant showers and lows near 3 C, highs near 9 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny with light winds, increasing cloud late in the day, lows near -2 C and highs near 9 C.

WEDNESDAY will become overcast with light rain at times, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.

The pattern beyond that has shifted back to something a bit more active with the colder influences possibly held back more into Britain and central Europe, but all guidance beyond about five days at the moment is suspect with such weak signals.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy to sunny at times, still rather cold, following a very slight snowfall in the early morning hours. The highs were around -4 C. Sleet and snow are developing in the lower Great Lakes and Ohio valley regions and a stronger snowstorm is expected to develop later today when the low redevelops off the Long Island coastline. Parts of central New England can expect 20-30 cm snowfalls. It will be mostly sleet or freezing rain in NYC though.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 26 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 26 Feb to 4 March 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.

-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal.

-- Sunshine will average near normal, to 25 per cent above normal.

-- Winds will remain moderate south to southwest until Monday, thereafter somewhat lighter and more variable in direction.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few outbreaks of light rain or drizzle mostly towards the west coast. Moderate south winds 50-70 km/hr. Highs 9 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will bring further outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, not much accumulation expected, with partial clearing spreading in from the west after midnight. Lows 2 to 5 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies and some outbreaks of light rain resuming. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr. Highs 10 to 12 C.

MONDAY will become less windy and should remain mostly dry with some sunny breaks developing, in moderate westerly winds which will decrease in strength later in the day. Lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.

TUESDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, and cool, with morning lows -1 to +3 C, afternoon highs 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring increasing cloud and a chance of light rain in some parts of the south and west, highs near 10 C.

A rather bland weather pattern will develop with some weak frontal systems and cloudy intervals, light showery rainfalls at times, but temperatures fairly close to average.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy at first with light snow flurries, then clearing to afternoon sunshine and quite cold, highs only about -5 C.

A snowfall of 15-30 cm was fairly widespread in New England with sleet or freezing drizzle over parts of NYC, NJ and PA. The low responsible is moving quickly past the eastern Canadian provinces overnight and will be moving past northwest Ireland (well offshore) by Sunday night. Any chance of this bringing alert level wind gusts to Ireland have diminished with the track now quite close to eastern Iceland.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 27 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS -- It will be much drier this coming week and that may continue for most the first half of March with temperatures gradually falling a bit below normal at times. This trend should allow for brighter skies and after tonight, less windy conditions in general too.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy and milder again with south to southwest winds 60-90 km/hr at times, fortunately a strong Atlantic storm is heading closer to Iceland than Ireland, so it will be the Faeroes getting its very strong winds of 140 km/hr later tonight. There may be the occasional gust to near 110 km/hr in northwest Ireland though. Rain is fairly sparse with this weather system but eventually some outbreaks of light rain could spread in from the west. Highs 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will remain cloudy until around midnight to 0300h with a gradual clearing trend thereafter, and any residual showers will end. Windy at first although in the 60-90 km/hr range for most. Lows 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY will see a gradual reduction in westerly wind speeds to around 40-60 km/hr, and cloud will start to break gradually. It will be a bit colder with highs 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY will have some sharp morning frosts in central and northern inland counties, clear skies with increasing cloud mid-day and overcast in the south and west by evening. Light winds turning southeasterly, lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will become a bit milder with moderate southerly winds and occasional rain (3-5 mm expected), lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY will be mostly cloudy with a few showers, somewhat colder with lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C.

After that, guidance seems to diverge a little, with some indications of colder easterly winds returning to the picture, but not all models agree and some maintain a weak zonal Atlantic sort of regime for a few more days with hints of the colder high pressure towards the middle of the following week. So we will need to wait and see how that plays out, but either way, it looks to be a rather quiet and cool interval without very much rain or strong winds.

My local weather on Saturday was partly to mostly sunny and while it started out cold, there was a bit of warmth to the sunshine today and highs crept up towards -1 C. Melting is almost non-existent but sublimation is slowly reducing our snow pack which varies from 15 to 30 cm depending on how exposed it is to sunshine. Very cold air that has been in our region for days is now pushing southeast into much of the central and eastern U.S. and Canada.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 28 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain rather cool and somewhat on the dry side of normal, with average (normal) amounts of sunshine, and winds quite a bit less blustery than in the past few weeks.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy at first, with some further outbreaks of light rain, and partial clearing from the west by afternoon. Not as windy, and the moderate southwest to west winds this morning will drop off further by late afternoon. Highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will become clear with frost inland and in rural areas, lows -3 to +3 C. Some patchy fog likely.

TUESDAY will start out sunny and cold, then with increasing cloud later, some light rain may reach the southeast by evening. Highs 6 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, occasional light rain, and moderate south to southwest winds. Lows 3 to 5 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue mostly cloudy with some sunshine in a few spots, and a few outbreaks of light rain. Lows 3 to 5 C and highs around 10 C.

The outlook for the weekend of 5-6 March is for cool and dry weather most of the time, some sunshine each day, and slight frosts. Lows around -1 C and highs around 8 C.

This appears to be the extent of the potential colder spell and then it may be back into a slightly more active and unsettled pattern although with only a moderate increase in wind speeds indicated. All in all, the next two weeks don't seem likely to be very active or all that far from average first half of March weather.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast and rather foggy with wet snow accumulating to about 3 or 4 cms. Temperatures edged up to the freezing mark and may reach 2 C on Monday, as somewhat milder air filters in. Meanwhile it is quite cold in eastern regions of North America with no sign of real spring weather yet.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 1 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 1-7 Mar 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.

-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal.

-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.

-- Winds generally rather light, sometimes into the lower end of the moderate range.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny and cool, as the morning frost gradually dissipates. Light winds expected, increasing high cloud from the south by afternoon. Highs around 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy although parts of Ulster and north Leinster could have a frosty start around late evening to midnight. Lows there may dip below -2 C but otherwise should be in the 3-5 C range. Light rain, sleet or drizzle possible after midnight in the south.

WEDNESDAY will be overcast with occasional sleety light rain or drizzle. Highs 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with occasional showers or mixed wintry showers on hills. Lows near 1 C and highs near 7 C.

FRIDAY will become mostly sunny and cool with isolated light wintry showers. Lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C.

SATURDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, northeast winds 30-50 km/hr, and isolated wintry showers. Lows near -3 C and highs near 6 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with lows near -2 C and highs near 8 C.

MONDAY will be overcast and a bit milder with rain in some western counties, lows near 1 C and highs near 9 C.

TUESDAY will bring mostly cloudy skies with a few breaks, lows near 3 C and highs near 10 C.

Some light rain is expected during mid-week around Wed 8th-Thurs 9th, then the weather pattern will become more active again with stronger winds at times, heavier rainfalls resuming. Temperatures may stay a bit below average however.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with snow tapering to drizzle as temperatures rose gradually to around +1 C. The snow was quite heavy in the morning and accumulated to about 25 cm but residual compacting and melting has reduced that to about 15 cm new snow, making our pack around 40 cm again, about even with its deepest appearance of the winter two months ago. Very cold temperatures in the east are slowly moderating.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 2 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 Mar 2022 --

-- Temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg below normal.

-- Rainfalls will be around 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

-- Sunshine will be near average, possibly slightly above for northern counties.

-- Winds generally light to moderate, often from the northeast by this weekend.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast with perhaps some brighter intervals this morning in the north. Some intervals of moderate rain may reach the east coast from south Wales, otherwise just scattered outbreaks of light rain and drizzle, highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with occasional showers, becoming sleety on hills. Lows 1 to 4 C.

THURSDAY will be overcast with showers and blustery south to southwest winds, chilly with highs around 7 C.

FRIDAY will bring partial clearing and isolated wintry showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

SATURDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals and cool, lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with lows near -2 C and highs near 9 C.

MONDAY will become quite breezy and overcast with rain pushing into some western and southern counties, lows near 2 C and highs near 10 C.

The following week looks rather cool and unsettled, and there will be further chances for cold air to push west out of central Europe, although this will likely cut off around eastern England but with some chance of mixing in with the Atlantic flow which itself does not look very mild either.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with light rain at times, making conditions rather slushy, but without reducing our considerable snow pack very much. Highs reached about 3 or 4 C. About ready to head south for some sunshine, no firm plans yet.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 3 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, rather cool, unsettled at first then dry with considerable sunshine over the weekend, back to cloudier and slightly milder weather as rain returns by Tuesday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring partly cloudy skies and isolated showers, becoming more frequent later in the day especially in western counties where some might turn sleety on higher ground. Highs 6 to 9 C. Moderate westerly breezes 40 to 60 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy to clear at times, with local frosts, lows -2 to +2 C.

FRIDAY will feature sunny intervals, with high cloud off to the southwest from a distant storm in the Atlantic which will track southeast missing Ireland and heading for Portugal. Winds will become light and variable under high pressure. Highs 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY as the high builds up over Ulster and western Scotland, breezes will turn northeast 30-50 km/hr on the east coast, with a few onshore mixed wintry showers possible. Some sharp frosts at first then rather cool in the daytime although moderating more in west Munster and parts of Connacht. Lows -3 to +2 C, highs 7 to 11 C.

SUNDAY will continue partly to mostly sunny and rather cool, with morning frosts, isolated mid-day showers. Lows near -4 C inland, to near +1 C around coastal districts, and highs 8 to 12 C.

MONDAY will turn rather breezy as the high drifts further east, and a raw southeast wind under cloudy skies will set in, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C. Some drizzle or light rain will develop near the west coast.

TUESDAY will be breezy to windy and cool with occasional rain, southerly winds 50-70 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

The outlook is for rather cool, unsettled weather with winds often southeast to south, as a rather static weather regime develops and Atlantic disturbances are steered in towards western counties then shunted further north.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast, rather foggy at times, and milder with highs around 5 C. Only a few spots of rain early on, otherwise dry other than the mist or low cloud.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 4 March, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 March 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal, with even colder values at first, then a slight moderation closer to average.

-- Rainfalls of 50 to 75 per cent of normal are likely in the west but most of that will occur from Tuesday to Thursday. Smaller amounts are expected in the east as it may remain dry while some of that mid-week rainfall hits western counties.

-- Sunshine will be around normal after generous amounts today and over the weekend, balanced by mostly cloudy conditions after Monday.

-- Winds rather light to Monday when moderate southeast to south winds will develop, persisting most of next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with a few clouds, and isolated showers could develop near hilly terrain this afternoon. Dry for most of the country however. Highs around 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be clear and frosty with lows -4 to +2 C, mildest readings near coasts and in larger cities.

SATURDAY will be mostly sunny with isolated afternoon showers, if any occur they could be hail or snow pellets, but most places will remain dry in any case. Highs 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a chilly southeast wind developing across parts of the south. Lows -4 to +2 C and highs 6 to 8 C.

MONDAY will be overcast with a rather raw southeast wind 50-70 km/hr, spotty light rain near southwest coasts. Lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with occasional rain mostly in western counties, while just cloudy but dry further east, in southeast winds 60-90 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs 8-10 C.

The pattern then looks rather similar for quite a few days after that but with rainfall gradually spreading further east with each new frontal system moving by to the west, eventually stronger winds may also become part of the picture. During this time frame, high pressure over Russia and eastern Europe will create a broad scale easterly flow across southern Europe towards Britain, and there could be occasional returns to cold and dry spells influencing parts of Ireland at times. It may play a part in the conflict happening in Ukraine that very cold weather will develop there, it has been rather chilly and dry for several days, but is due to turn colder with occasional snow especially over eastern regions, and frigid weather will set in when the high over Russia reaches its strongest phase in about a week. This high will ridge west through Poland and Germany to keep the continent largely dry other than any weak snowfalls that develop along minor disturbance trough lines.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast and mild with a high near 7 C. A slow thaw is underway and we are back down to around 20-25 cm snow cover with the weekend top up now cancelled out.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 5 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar to yesterday's report, cold and dry at first, unsettled and just slightly milder by mid-week although not rising much above 10 C at any point. Lots of sunshine at first, then very little after the weekend. Light winds to Monday then moderate southeast to south, risk of stronger winds by Thursday in western counties.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly sunny with isolated afternoon showers, if any occur they could be hail or snow pellets, but most places will remain dry in any case. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be clear and cold again with lows -5 to +1 C.

SUNDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a chilly southeast wind developing across parts of the south, and highs 6 to 8 C.

MONDAY will be overcast with a rather raw southeast wind 50-70 km/hr, spotty light rain near south, west and southeast coasts. Lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with occasional rain in some places, while just cloudy but dry further north, in southeast winds 60-90 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue unsettled with occasional rain and the risk of strong south to southwest winds at times, lows near 6 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

The following few days will continue unsettled and may be somewhat cooler again with a slight risk of sleety mixtures developing on higher terrain at times. Europe will remain under strong high pressure centered over Russia and the Baltic regions, with cold or even frigid conditions likely to develop in Ukraine possibly affecting the course of the conflict there. Potential temperatures of -15 to -20 C at night, and -10 to -5 C daytime, could develop (at present it is not overly warm at around zero to +2 C daytime and -5 or lower at night, but that is fairly close to normal for the region). This very cold air will push quite a long way west eventually although it may just peter out before reaching western Europe in any concentrated form.

My local weather on Friday was partly to mostly cloudy but dry with highs near 3 C. It still feels a bit more like winter than spring but certainly a transition is underway without much conviction. The evening sky revealed a thin crescent moon with the "old moon in the young moon's arms" as they say. Check for this after sunset in Ireland or anywhere else you may be reading this, your view should be largely unobstructed and the moon is nicely elevated above the western horizon as twilight fades.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 6 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead, 6 to 12 Mar 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal with the cold nights being replaced by milder overcast nights. Daytime readings will remain close to 10 C.

-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values, possibly higher in some western counties.

-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal, as it will be sunny today but then mostly cloudy.

-- Winds will gradually increase to moderate southeast to southerly.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with increasing high cloud by afternoon in parts of the south. Highs 6 to 9 C. Take note, early risers, that readings in some parts of north central counties are as low as -5 C and a less severe frost is widespread. Relative humidity is low so that should prevent much ice on shaded road surfaces but would drive with caution for that anyway just in case. Any frost left in shaded areas should be dissipated by about 0930 to 1000h.

TONIGHT will remain partly cloudy with lows -2 to +3 C. Temperatures will be rising towards morning as clouds and wind speeds increase.

MONDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of drizzle or light rain in some parts of the south and west, moderate and rather raw southeast winds at 50 to 70 km/hr, highs 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY will become rather windy at times with occasional rain, winds southerly 60-90 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies and occasional showers, moderate south to southwest winds, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.

The trend thereafter will be for mostly cloudy and occasionally wet conditions with moderate south to southwest winds. Longer term, the pattern will be more active and sometimes rather cold as we begin to see a return to the westerly flow sometimes sourced a little further north. Overall most of the month appears likely to be rather cool and unsettled. See yesterday's forecast for an overview of expected weather trends in Ukraine and eastern Europe, that remains valid.

My local weather on Saturday was pleasant, sunny with highs near 5 C, rather similar to your weather in that it is dropping well below freezing at night although that is less unusual here.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 7 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead -- temperatures will return to normal values for early March; frequent rainfall in the west may exceed 125% of normal values there, less than average amounts may fall further east however, not much sunshine expected, and winds quite strong at times, mostly from the southwest.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and a rather chilly southeast breeze at 40-70 km/hr. There could be a few outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, not much accumulation is expected. Highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will bring overcast skies, some rain at times, and lows 3-6 C.

TUESDAY will turn rather windy (southerly 70-110 km/hr at times) near Atlantic coasts, with intervals of moderate or even heavy rain (20-30 mm potential there). Only showery conditions likely further east, not as windy (50-80 km/hr). Partly cloudy by afternoon with scattered thundery showers likely. Highs 10-12 C for the south and west, 7 to 9 C east and north where some hills may see sleet or hail rather than rain.

TUESDAY NIGHT there will be a second fast-moving disturbance which may bring another bout of strong winds and rain to the west coast and other western regions. Once again this will have less of an impact further east. Winds south-southwest 70-110 km/hr near Atlantic coasts, not that windy elsewhere (40-70 km/hr). Another 10-15 mm rain is possible, lows 6 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy with isolated hail or rain showers, a bit colder with temperatures steady around 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY will be milder again with southerly winds, increasing cloud, and rain by evening. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional showers, lows near 4 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

SATURDAY another windy frontal system approaches with potential for locally strong winds and heavy rainfalls.

The pattern then begins to look more variable with some episodes of partial blocking by high pressure that may become linked to the very cold high pressure expected throughout this period over Russia. This may not be particularly wintry for Ireland but temperatures could drop several degrees at times if this interruption to the Atlantic driven storm track occurs. But also there will continue to be intervals that are more unsettled with somewhat milder temperatures, albeit seldom reaching much above 10 degrees.

My local weather on Sunday was mostly sunny with a high of about 7 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 8 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue rather wet, cool and windy much of the time.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be quite windy in most areas and very windy in exposed coastal locations, with southeast gales of 60 to 100 km/hr fairly widespread this morning, 70 to 110 km/hr near Atlantic west and south coasts. Some bursts of heavier rain are likely with total amounts from this phase 10-20 mm. Partial clearing will develop from the southwest this afternoon accompanied by isolated heavy showers, some thundery, and brief sunny spells. Highs will then reach about 10 C.

TONIGHT a second wave arrives with similar results to the first one, more rain and strong winds, peaking around midnight to 0300h at 70 to 110 km/hr, with another 10 to 20 mm likely. Lows near 4 C.

WEDNESDAY will turn somewhat colder again with a third wave of low pressure running into this colder air from the south. This one will track closer to the Irish Sea than the west coast, and may bring mixed wintry or sleety falls over higher ground especially. Winds over eastern counties could reach about 60-90 km/hr from the east to southeast. Variable cloud and wintry showers will follow, and highs may be held down to about 5 C in places, although 7 to 9 C is likely near coasts.

THURSDAY there will be a brief break in the unsettled weather, but it will remain quite windy. Increasing cloud will lead to rain by late in the day. Winds southerly 60-90 km/hr, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will be overcast with sleety outbreaks of rain or mixed rain and wet snow, some thundery showers embedded, and local falls of hail. Winds southwest 50-80 km/hr. Lows near 2 C and highs near 6 C.

The weekend will see little improvement with the chilly moist air mass still hanging around and more disturbances coming along from the southwest, so that there may be further sleety outbreaks of rain and falls of wet snow on hills from time to time, and temperatures generally near 1 C overnight and struggling to reach 5 to 8 C in the daytime hours.

The pattern remains rather similar for about a week thereafter and very strong, cold high pressure will sit stationary over Russia for most of this coming two weeks, trying to send much colder air west into central Europe. This may actually break into the moist Atlantic flow at some point later this month, probably towards the 20th-25th time frame, and bring even colder weather into western Europe for a time. At this rate March may turn out colder than any of the three "winter" months and produce more wintry weather too. Shades of 2013 although I don't think the average temperature will quite fall that low. As mentioned in previous reports, the Ukraine conflict zone is bracing for the arrival of much colder air masses -- it is already quite cold there now, but temperatures will drop steadily for the next two days and then it will remain very cold much of the coming month apparently. Being an optimistic sort, I hope this somehow helps to speed up the end of this conflict without resorting to capitulation to terms that are excessive.

Meanwhile, my local weather started out pleasant and sunny, then turned more overcast, with snow showers visible over nearby mountain peaks, although it stayed dry in town and in the valley where we spent part of the day. Sadly, Juno the weather cat has passed away after a good run of almost twenty years, so we were dealing with that situation. Now I will have to come up with these forecasts without her assistance.