Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 10 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 Jan --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.

-- Rainfall will be very slight, between trace amounts and 2 mm.

-- Sunshine may be close to average although some places may be stuck under persistent stratus cloud layers.

-- Winds will drop off to very light and remain in the 15-30 km/hr range daytime hours and often calm at night.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast and quite mild with a few more outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, little accumulation is foreseen, highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, some patchy drizzle near north coast, lows 3 to 6 C.

From TUESDAY to next weekend, high pressure will be nearby, and winds will be very light, rather persistent cloud decks will be difficult for the weak January sun to burn off, but some sun may get through here and there mostly near the west coast. Temperatures each day will be in a similar range, with highs around 7 to 9 C, and lows only a bit colder than that due to the cloud, 5 to 7 C in many areas, but the inland south and sometimes the midlands also could have clear spells at night allowing for somewhat colder lows near 1 C. Frost is possible in a few spots. Some fog could form too.

This rather unexciting weather pattern has the one advantage of making it fairly easy to get around and not too stressful on home heating budgets either.

There is really no definitive end in sight to the pattern either, but in the past models have tended to hold on to similar patterns a bit longer than they actually survive. This one will probably start to break down after next weekend and before the end of the month. But until it does, there will be very little weather especially when one considers what could be happening at this time of year (either cold and snow, or wind and rain).

My local weather looks set to go into a similar mode for a week, as the cold pattern here recently breaks down. Sunday was mostly cloudy with highs around -3 C. Some clearing at times overnight is allowing temperatures to fall off below -10 but we will likely have quite a dull week with temperatures close to the freezing point. A colder pattern now extends from the central arctic to the east coast of the U.S., with chances for winter storms there although guidance not very unified on what areas should prepare for them in about a week or so.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 11 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, near normal temperatures, dry and partly cloudy skies with light winds for about a week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with some areas having sunny breaks, others likely to have longer intervals of low cloud. Highs 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with some longer clear intervals developing, leading to some frost and local fog. Lows -2 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY will become mostly cloudy with a few breaks, and highs 5 to 9 C, possibly 10 C near some western and northern coasts.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue similar with mostly cloudy skies, some breaks in the overcast, and a few spots of drizzle at times in the southwest mainly. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

NEXT WEEKEND could see a slight southeast breeze picking up but it will remain rather cloudy and chilly with temperatures in a narrow range, 3 to 7 C.

By the first part of the following week, systems may begin to move a little and this could lead to somewhat milder temperatures returning. Eventually if the logjam clears completely, there might be an opportunity for colder air to reach some parts of the region, at the present time the cold is being directed over Scandinavia towards central Europe, but patterns seem to be about to shift a bit westward (retrograde movement at upper levels) which could encourage colder air to move south closer to the longitude of Britain and then Ireland.

My local weather featured hazy sunshine and just a hint of milder air that came in more direct measure for regions east of the Rockies. Our high was around -1 C but Calgary had 8 C and a few places in Montana reached 12-15 C in a rather weak chinook that may stick around most of the week as cold high pressure areas are now moving south through central Canada into the Great Lakes region. Eastern Canada is bracing for a rather large and powerful storm system expected by about Thursday night or Friday. Guidance keeps changing on the track for this but it's heading up into the eastern Canadian arctic and won't be coming across the Atlantic.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 12 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

The trends remain similar to those posted previously.

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny across parts of the south. A few places have dropped below freezing in the inland south, be wary of the potential for localized black ice conditions especially if a cold fog is present. But those conditions would be quite limited to small areas (Cork, south Limerick, west Tipps perhaps the most at risk areas). Otherwise temperatures are already in the 4-7 C range and will either stay there all day or rise slightly to reach highs of 6-9 C. More cloud will spread into the north than elsewhere. Winds remaining quite light and variable.

TONIGHT will see roughly the same conditions with a better chance of frost and fog in the inland south but perhaps becoming a bit more widespread into parts of the midlands too. Cloudier further north. Lows -2 to +3 C except closer to 5-7 C near some coasts.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue with similar conditions although a trend towards more widespread low cloud may be noted, and highs may drop a degree or two as a result.

By SATURDAY a weak frontal disturbance will try to push in from the northwest. It may succeed in dropping small amounts of rain in parts of the north, with dry weather but cloudy skies further south. Highs again around 4 to 8 C.

From SUNDAY to an unknown end point of this episode (at least middle of the following week), high pressure will remain in control and there will be more rather featureless weather punctuated by the anguished curses of weather geeks as they prepare to hurl themselves off high places. This may be prevented if the weather models return to a theme briefly explored by the GFS model on one run earlier Tuesday, showing a lot of cold air flowing in from the north. This idea came and went in one model run and is no longer really a strong possibility but there are a few faint signs of colder air masses towards the end of January.

My local weather has been no more exciting really, overcast, with a bit of light snow at times, highs near -1 C. The two storms I described yesterday are still on the charts for Friday in eastern Canada then Sunday in the eastern U.S., but details are difficult to pin down with different models offering different tracks especially for the second storm which is probably going to form rather slowly out of the weak energy rippling through my part of the continent now and setting off this light snowfall. Nothing much happens until this energy drops southeast into Colorado and Oklahoma, then a fairly significant storm system begins to form, but it may or may not move to the coast; some models take it on an inland route which would subject the east coast to a warmup with rain while the heavy snow would fall over the central highlands of PA into upstate NY. Time will tell on that. Just remember to look up if you hear those weather geeks cursing. At least I won't be landing on you.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 13 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 13-19 January --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, with some inland south averages near 1-2 deg below normal.

-- Rainfall will be very slight where any does occur, around Saturday, most places will average 5-10 per cent of normal.

-- Sunshine may work out near average but some places will have plenty while others get stuck with persistent cloud.

-- Winds very light generally, sometimes picking up to the low end of "moderate" range around Saturday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy with a few locations enjoying longer sunny spells. Some morning fog may be rather persistent. Temperatures will respond slowly where fog persists, but otherwise highs of 7 to 9 C can be expected.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a few clear spots prone to fog and frost formation, lows -2 to +3 C.

FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy with some persistent fog and highs in the range of 4 to 8 C, colder where fog persists.

SATURDAY will see some slight increase in wind speeds as high pressure weakens, winds southeast 30-50 km/hr, mostly cloudy skies, and outbreaks of drizzle or very light rain more likely in the south and west. Lows near 1 C and highs near 7 C.

SUNDAY high pressure will return and this next variety may be slightly colder in general, would expect lows of -3 to +1 C and highs 4 to 8 C each day from Sunday to late in the week, with some sunshine here and there, considerable low cloud, and widespread morning fog, sometimes freezing fog with isolated occurrences of black ice and hazardous driving conditions, most likely to show up in the inland southeast and midlands.

There is no reliable guidance on when this rather static weather pattern might finally break down or what might follow. There are some signs that it could persist right through the following week and into the week beyond that.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with occasional sleet or wet snow, as a disturbance slowly moves inland from the Pacific coast where it's mild and rainy. This will form the nucleus of a storm that will develop over the plains states and move to the east coast by Sunday with a mixture of snow, sleet and rain for them as well. Some heavy snowfalls are expected from this in parts of the central plains, Ohio valley, and mountains of the inland northeastern states.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 14 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain the same, near average temperatures, almost totally dry, partly cloudy skies with a bit of sunshine here and there, and light winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with a few places seeing a bit more sunshine than most, and any fog or mist gradually dissipating. Highs 5 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with a few clear intervals, lows -2 to +4 C.

SATURDAY will see a slight increase in wind speeds to the 20-40 km/hr range, as a weak disturbance far off to the southwest tries to make a dent in the high pressure. The results will be fairly bland, with a bit of drizzly light rain in a few places, and that breeze noticeable near some coasts. Highs 5-9 C.

SUNDAY high pressure rebuilds from the northwest, it may be a fairly bright day with patchy cloud banks, and lows -2 to +3 C, highs 5 to 9 C.

All of next week, this same high will be close at hand, with the chance of a slight amount of rain for western coastal districts around Monday from another attempt at a change in the pattern which will also probably come to nothing, so expect a very static weather picture in most areas, light winds, and perhaps somewhat milder as a slight south to southwest flow develops with this high settling in over southern England and northern France. Highs later next week may be closer to 11 C than the current range. Longer term guidance breaks down this blocking around the end of the second week ahead and replaces it with a colder northerly flow. Not overly confident of any guidance at this point, but eventually this block will be gone and weather will become active again.

My local weather was foggy all day with temperatures in the range of 2 to 3 C. The energy for the projected eastern U.S. storm (Sunday-Monday) rippled through this region last night and is now building the low pressure area east of Denver, Colorado. It hasn't amounted to much yet, the snow is well displaced to its east around North Dakota, but eventually the circulation will tighten up over the southern states and a fairly powerful low is expected to be in the southeast U.S. by Sunday with an ice storm predicted for Atlanta. Snowfalls of 5-15 cm appear likely ahead of the low but coastal areas will see a rapid change to sleet and rain, with heavier snows confined to the higher elevations well inland (Sunday night into Monday). Bitterly cold temperatures will settle in over most of the Great Lakes region and this cold will ebb and flow for about two weeks with more storm chances to come for the eastern seaboard of the U.S.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 15 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain stable from past several days.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few spots of drizzle becoming somewhat more widespread outbreaks of light rain later on, as a very weak front cuts through the high pressure ridge from the northwest. Rainfall amounts of trace to 2 mm are expected. Highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will see further light rain for a time then dry but partly to mostly cloudy skies towards morning. Lows 3 to 7 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with highs near 9 C, light winds.

SUNDAY NIGHT could bring some longer clear intervals which might produce a sharper frost with lows -4 to +2 C. A full moon will be visible and will be perhaps surprisingly high up in the sky at midnight as we slowly approach a peak of the moon's 18.6 year declination cycle.

MONDAY will start out with frost and fog, clearing later to partly cloudy skies, highs near 8 C.

TUESDAY will perhaps see more of a northwest breeze as this next high backs off slightly to the south and west. When that happens, colder air will be allowed to move south into parts of Britain and the North Sea but the effects of that will be marginal except perhaps in east Ulster which might have a high only around 6 C, other regions will stay in the 8-10 C range.

From WEDNESDAY to about MONDAY 24th, high pressure will remain in charge and a very slight southwest flow will develop so it could be somewhat milder than the first part of this long pause in active weather has been, with highs 10 to 12 C. Nights most likely in the 2-5 C range in that interval, but local frosts in the inland south and midlands cannot be ruled out.

Eventually, guidance favours the end of this inactive period leading on to colder air masses from the north or east, although nothing too extreme is currently anticipated.

My local weather on Friday was overcast and foggy with a bit of freezing drizzle in the air at times, with temperatures in a narrow range of -1 to +1 C. Our snow pack in town has remained around 30-35 cm but is now frozen over to some extent. I'm told there is a 50-75 cm snowpack in the local ski hills and this is close to a normal amount for around here. Meanwhile, a complex storm is slowly taking shape over the central U.S., the low was in Texas but the snow was much further north, around Iowa, with a large area of mild, dry weather in between. This system is going to be forced into a more dynamic state over the southeastern U.S. today, and will then become quite powerful when it reaches the east coast on Monday. Snow, sleet and rain will fall in bands, with persistent heavy snow only well inland and up above where most people live in that region. Some flight delays seem likely at major eastern airports on Monday. There is quite a slug of frigid arctic air waiting to greet this storm, with pressures as high as 1045 mb in central Ontario and temperatures in the mid -30s there, less extreme in the outflow from this high but cold enough to set off rare northeast wind squalls on all the lakes which have remained ice-free to this point (recent temperature soundings were in the 3-5 C range). Another interesting factor is that the Atlantic sea surface temperatures are well in excess of January normals to the east of the big cities, with 20-23 C readings not that far from the coast. This will be a very volatile storm system when it does round the bottom of a trough and begins to head north around Sunday mid-day.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 16 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, near normal temperatures perhaps 0.5 to 1.0 deg above normal in places, mostly dry and with average amounts of sunshine, light winds continuing.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks mostly in the south, highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with a few places clearing, frost and fog possible there, lows -3 to +3 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy, morning fog or mist slowly dissipating, highs 8 to 10 C.

The rest of the week will continue much the same with partly cloudy skies on average, some places more overcast than others, light winds, and highs each day around 10 or 11 C, overnight lows often in the 2-5 C range, but subject to some variation depending on clear skies which might lead to frost and denser fog patches forming.

The guidance still seems to continue this spell of quiet weather for another week or slightly longer, then a gradual change to a somewhat more active pattern although not with very much rainfall associated, and temperatures sometimes a little below average.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast and milder with highs near 2 C. The east coast of the U.S. will face a mixture of snow, sleet and rain later tonight and Monday morning, as low pressure now in southern Georgia moves up the coast. Sleet, freezing rain and snow are falling over the inland southeast with rain and thunderstorms closer to the Atlantic coast. It has turned unseasonably cold in the south central states in the wake of the storm and snowfalls of 15-25 cm are reported through parts of Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas, with similar amounts expected today in the Tennessee valley as the snow from this storm spreads up through the Appalachian mountain chain towards West Virginia and eventually central PA.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 17 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 Jan --

-- Temperatures will be slightly below normal values, more so in parts of the east and inland south due to the possibility of some frosty nights, but this is not going to be a bitterly cold arctic sort of cold, just the homegrown variety when high pressure doesn't receive much warming from the weak low January sun. ... It will remain largely dry with a few weak frontal passages creating rainfalls of 1 or 2 mm around Tuesday night and towards Friday. Most places will be unlikely to see even a quarter of their normal rainfall ... Sunshine will be about the normal amount for mid-January when an average of 2 hours a day is considered generous. Winds will remain rather light except that they might pick up on one or two days when the ever-present high backs away a bit before returning. Wednesday looks a little breezier than most other days.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be quite frosty to start and some roads, in particular secondary routes, may be quite icy until well on into the morning. Eventually most of the frost and any fog should clear away and there will be some sunny intervals, with highs near 7 C, possibly a few degrees higher near coasts.

TONIGHT may see some return of frost but cloud moving in overnight will cause temperatures to rise back above freezing after perhaps reaching lows near -2 C around late evening or midnight.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with the overcast creating some hill fog in the north, with a few outbreaks of light rain spreading into the north and west, with a slight increase in winds to westerly 30-50 km/hr at least in Connacht and Ulster. Highs near 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will become rather breezy from the northwest (40-60 km/hr) as the high backs off to the west, and this will allow the breeze to mix the air more and perhaps lead to longer sunny intervals away from cloudy west-facing coastlines. Highs 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY will be back to rather calm conditions and mostly cloudy skies, with highs near 8 C.

From FRIDAY to about SUNDAY, more bland and relatively calm conditions are expected with highs 8 to 10 C, overnight lows generally a bit above freezing in most places.

Another one-day northwesterly spell is indicated for around Monday or Tuesday, and from then on the month may become generally a bit colder but no large changes in this placid and dry regime are expected. At this rate, January will end up with only half of its normal amount of rainfall, if we saw no further rain from today to the 31st then what has already fallen would represent just 40% of normal, but with a bit more expected, we may finish around 50% of normal. The average temperature to the 16th was slightly above normal, today may bring that down to exactly long-term average (which is how normal is defined in the weather stats).

My local weather is no more exciting than your own, with very little change from day to day, a featureless low stratus overcast that remains largely dry, with temperatures night and day in a very narrow range from -2 to +1 C. There was a little sleet at one point. The east coast got the mixture of snow, sleet and rain expected, along with some locally strong winds, and that storm is now proceeding into Quebec and eventually up towards western Greenland. Very little snow fell in the larger cities, except for Washington DC which had about 10 cms. Much heavier amounts were reported from the Allegheny Mountain region west of DC, with blizzard conditions and 30 cms of snow at one ski resort there. A rather dry and cold pattern is developing for the eastern and central regions, mild and dry for the west, as any strong winds or rain are directed more towards Alaska.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 18 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain same as yesterday's discussion.

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and a little milder with outbreaks of rain (2 to 4 mm expected) across Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster, just trace amounts further south. Southwest breezes 30-50 km/hr will develop gradually, highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will be breezy and winds will veer to westerly 40-60 km/hr, with a few more showers mainly in Ulster and north Leinster. Lows 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy to sunny in eastern and southern counties with perhaps more cloud further west and north. Somewhat colder in a moderate northwest breeze 30-50 km/hr. Highs 6 to 9 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY will then be dominated by high pressure almost directly over Ireland. Very light winds will develop again, with some rather cold nights especially where skies clear up. Lows could reach -4 to -1 C. More cloud is expected in the west and north so nights may remain milder there. Lows of 3 to 7 C can be expected in those regions. Daytime temperatures will be more similar from one region to another, in the range of 5 to 8 C mostly, some readings near 10 C around the more temperate coastal areas.

This pattern shows only faint signs of breaking down to any great extent after that, so we'll just have to be patient and wait for more definite signals to emerge. The atmosphere has not gone completely dead everywhere, a major snowstorm hit some places in eastern North America, with Toronto and Buffalo seeing 50-60 cm amounts, Ottawa and Montreal about 30-50 cm. That storm is headed northeast towards Greenland now. My own local weather was rather inert too, however, with low cloud, some fog or mist, and temperatures steady near -2 C. Although they do a good job around here clearing roads and sidewalks of snow, a few places have become quite icy but where no snow clearance has taken place, there's a level 35 cm snow pack which is also partially frozen over.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 19 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 Jan 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal in the west, to 1.5 deg below normal in the east.

-- Rainfall will be very slight, near zero for many, 2-4 mm potentially near west coast later in the interval.

-- Sunshine will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal.

-- Winds will be moderate today and sometimes returning to moderate later in the interval, but generally light otherwise.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather breezy for a time, especially across parts of the south as a cold front pushes through. Later on, moderate northwest breezes and partly cloudy to sunny skies are expected, highs 9 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will bring clear intervals, scattered frosts and patchy fog, with lows -3 to +3 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, with more cloud expected near northwest coasts, highs 6 to 9 C.

FRIDAY will also be partly cloudy to sunny with morning frosts and fog patches, lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C.

From Saturday to about mid-week, high pressure will sink slowly further south, which will keep nights clear and rather cold in the inland south, but cloudy and not as cold further north. Days will tend to be partly cloudy to overcast in all regions. Lows will vary from -2 to +4 C and highs from 7 to 10. There may be some light rain at times near the west coast but this will not amount to much there, and will not spread much further east.

Eventually the high pressure area will drift far enough south that a stronger westerly flow can resume and some frontal systems will return to the weather picture near the end of January, possibly leading to much stronger winds at times. Temperatures may rise somewhat as a result of the mild Atlantic air being allowed to exert control, with colder air held off for a few days.

My local weather on Tuesday was rather misty with glimpses of the sun at times, and highs near -1 C. Areas that are digging out from Monday's heavy snow are also bracing for extremely cold weather setting in behind a fast-moving disturbance bringing some light snow except for locally heavier snow squalls in southwest winds off the Great Lakes which so far have very little ice cover yet.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 20 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain the same as discussed yesterday, largely dry and fairly average temperatures for late January, with light winds dominant.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, the clouds somewhat more frequent in the west and north, with highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will remain clear in parts of the south with local frosts, lows near -3 C. More cloud is likely further north which will keep temperatures in a milder range of 2 to 5 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, those more likely in the east and south. Highs 6 to 9 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy east to overcast west, with a few sprinkles of rain there, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

Most of next week now seems destined to be governed by this never-shifting high pressure area and we cannot really put a very definite time on the breakdown but it seems likely to be around the end of next week or just before the end of the month.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with temperatures near -2 C. It has started to snow this evening and about 10-15 cms expected from that. Very cold over most central and eastern parts of the continent by later today as a small amount of milder air is expelled from the southeast with local snowfalls of 3-5 cm expected in Virginia and Maryland.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 21 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

High pressure will remain in control with some minor variations. The trends remain similar with near normal temperatures, little if any rainfall anywhere and some sunshine on some days making totals fairly close to average there. Winds remain light.

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks in the overcast, these mostly in the south coastal counties. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few places possibly clearing long enough to develop a slight frost, but most lows will be in the 3-6 C range.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and light rain may brush Atlantic coastal districts by afternoon. Highs 8-10 C.

SUNDAY will be a little more breezy as a weak front develops, trying once again to split up the high pressure, but only making minor inroads. Some rain may develop in Ulster from this weak front. Lows near 4 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY and most of next week will be dominated by the renewed high pressure rippling back into place after the minor frontal episode, and skies may be somewhat clearer for this round, at least partly cloudy on average. Highs each day around 8 to 10 C and lows in a range of -3 to +4 C.

Any breakdown is now scheduled for the end of the month or early February and it may then turn rather unsettled with more frequent rain and moderate southeast winds prevailing. Temperatures would likely stay in a similar range to the coming week.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with snow at times, and fog, with temperatures hovering around the freezing point. About 5-8 cms of new snow fell in the past day.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 22 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Jan --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.

-- Rainfalls will average 10 to 25 per cent of normal.

-- Sunshine will average around 75 per cent of normal in a rather cloudy regime.

-- Wind speeds often light, occasionally moderate southwesterly.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few outbreaks of light rain or drizzle in northern counties. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with occasional drizzle, lows near 5 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, highs 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with highs near 9 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with highs near 9 C.

The high pressure will begin to break down gradually later in the week; skies will remain partly cloudy but wind speeds will slowly increase to moderate southwest at times, and it may become somewhat milder with highs 10 to 12 C.

There are signs that a more active weather regime will develop in early February with larger swings in temperature, sometimes turning a bit colder than normal, but also a few days in the mix that are quite mild, as stronger fronts develop and air masses begin to mix more frequently.

My local weather on Friday was sunny, but with nearby valley fog, so that looking up or to the north we had clear blue skies, looking south it was misty with a white glow from the sunshine dispersing through the drifting layers of ice fog in that direction. Temperatures were close to -1 C. It has remained clear and turned quite cold overnight. Some parts of the eastern U.S. have snow from a weak system near the Carolinas, but this snow cuts off to the south of Washington DC and will not affect any of the large cities further north, as the low moves out to sea, to become a more powerful storm that will be bringing a snowstorm to southeast Newfoundland by Sunday. Very cold air has covered most of the continent east of Alberta and Montana.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 23 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar to yesterday's discussion, rather bland to say the least.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brief outbreaks of light rain or drizzle mainly confined to parts of Connacht and Ulster, little accumulation there. Winds picking up slightly to southwest 20-40 km/hr. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional drizzle, trace to 1 mm expected, lows near 6 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks in the south, with outbreaks of light rain likely at times in north Connacht and Ulster, north Leinster. Highs around 9 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy and dry with highs around 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring increasing cloud and moderate southwest winds as the high pressure begins to sink further south, allowing a very gradual return to more normal January weather conditions. Highs near 9 C. Some rain by evening.

THURSDAY will then bring a clearance as this light rain moves away, highs near 9 C.

From that point on, somewhat milder air masses will flow in from the Atlantic and highs will be around 11 or 12 C for several days near the end of the month.

There are indications of a much more active weather pattern developing in early February with larger swings in temperature and occasional bouts of strong wind and briefly heavy rainfalls.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with mist and at times dense fog, with temperatures stuck at about -3 C. It was quite unpleasant outside so I stayed inside and watched golf from sunny places around the world, a form of self-torture to be sure.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 24 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

The trends for the coming week remain the same, largely dry with mostly cloudy skies, and winds not very strong for this time of year, but with a gradual increase in both wind speeds and the chance of some rain towards the end of the interval. Temperatures will likely stay close to average but may begin to rise slowly near the end of the month.

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few outbreaks of drizzle or light rain mostly in Connacht and later on in west Ulster. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, any longer clear intervals could lead to localized frosts or fog but most places will have lows around 3 to 7 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C. Some rain may brush northern coasts by late in the day.

THURSDAY will produce a few scattered showers, nothing very heavy expected, with somewhat stronger westerly breezes, highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY and next weekend are looking breezy and mild with highs around 11 C.

A strong cold front is expected to arrive late Sunday or early Monday (31st Jan) and this may drop temperatures slightly in Ireland, but quite considerably over in Britain as the core of an arctic outbreak moves through the North Sea region. We'll keep an eye on this in case it shows any signs of including Ireland in the chill, but at the present time the indications are for temperatures around 6-8 C in Ireland, 2-4 C in Britain, with snow and very gusty northerly winds for some parts of central Europe.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a bit of residual mist, not as foggy as the previous day, but rather cold at -3 C. The big weather story in North America is the very cold air flooding most regions east of the Rockies, with models trying to get a handle on a potential major coastal storm next weekend (around Sunday 30th to Monday 31st); some parts of the eastern U.S. may get hit by a major snowstorm then. The week ahead will be mostly dry and very cold. Much milder weather holds the fort over western coastal regions.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 25 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 25 to 31 Jan 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average 1-2 deg above normal.

-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal in the north, 25-50 per cent in the south. Much of this will come towards the end of the interval.

-- Sunshine will be near normal values.

-- Wind speeds will start to increase by Wednesday and will sometimes be moderate to strong late in the week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, isolated showers with little accumulation expected. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with lows 3 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will become breezy and by later in the day, windy in northern regions. Some rain will develop across the north. Highs 8 to 12 C. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr in northern counties by late in the day.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and much less breezy again, as the high tries one last time to maintain its long domination of the weather, but this time it will probably not maintain itself very long. Lows near 3 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will become rather breezy and mild with highs 10 to 12 C. Some light rain by late in the day.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy and slightly cooler with highs 8 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will become windy with showers and westerly winds 60 to 90 km/hr, possibly stronger gusts near exposed Atlantic coasts. Highs 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY will turn rather cold and windy with passing showers, winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, temperatures steady or dropping slowly 7-9 C.

There will be further variations in a fast westerly flow that looks like it could become increasingly unsettled into February.

My local weather on Monday was overcast and misty, rather cold with temperatures near -4 C. Eastern regions of North America will be turning very cold behind a weak system moving through, and then that cold air will do battle with an energetic storm system likely to form somewhere off the east coast by Friday into Saturday; a major snowstorm or blizzard is quite possible. New York City and Boston are currently favoured to see the worst of this but all eastern regions are on alert.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 26 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

No change in TRENDS from yesterday's report, rather mild with a gradual increase in rainfall although nothing much more than half of normal in the north and a quarter in the south; not as calm as it has been most of the past two weeks, but at the same time, not especially windy for this time of year.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, and it will become breezy and by later in the day, rather windy in northern regions. Some rain will develop across the north spreading further south overnight. Highs 8 to 12 C. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr in northern counties by late in the day.

TONIGHT a band of rain fragmenting to showers will quickly sink south and exit the south coast after losing most of its moisture in central counties, rain amounts in total (including the today portion of the forecast) 5-10 mm north, 2-5 mm central, trace to 2 mm south. Winds west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr, tending to subside after 0300h. Lows 3 to 6 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and much less breezy again, with highs 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will become rather breezy and mild with highs 10 to 12 C. Some light rain by late in the day. Winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy and slightly cooler with highs 8 to 11 C. Some gusty west to northwest winds may affect Ulster and some other parts of the north. There will be less of a change in the weather further south.

SUNDAY will start out rather cold with a shallow layer of cold air over the north and east, a weak warm front may produce spotty light rain for a time, then somewhat milder air will arrive. Another frontal wave will move through northern areas overnight but its effects will be short-term and limited to that part of the country. Highs near 8 C north, 12 C south. Winds briefly west-northwest 50-80 km/hr in Ulster late in the day, possibly these stronger winds will make a brief appearance further south too.

MONDAY will see a rapid return to milder air masses if it does manage to turn a few degrees colder behind the late Sunday cold front, as readings will recover to 10-13 C by later Monday. Fairly dry considering the changes in air mass.

TUESDAY will be breezy and mild with highs 13-15 C. February looks like it may start out like January did with two very mild days then a change to colder and unsettled weather later in the week, highs by Friday closer to 7 C. Beyond that the pattern looks rather cold. Not sure if it's going to keep copying January and turn more bland mid-month, or if the cold might deepen this time.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast and cold with highs around -4 C. The sun was dimly visible through rather thick layers of mid-level cloud but there was also some patchy mist and fog around at times. A major storm system is expected to form over the southern states by Friday and will bring a snowstorm, possibly of blizzard proportions, to much of the eastern coastal regions. Different guidance offers different details but most agree that New York City will get 25-50 cm, and Long Island into New England 40-70 cm of snow with strong winds. Major airport delays or closures can be anticipated by Saturday lasting perhaps through Sunday. The outlook for Washington DC is a bit less clear-cut with some guidance showing that area outside the storm's coverage and other sources including DC with 10-20 cm snowfalls. This time the snow probably won't be very heavy west of the mountains but there may be locally heavy Great Lakes snow squall activity as the lakes remain largely free of ice even after two weeks of cold weather.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 27 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, temperatures generally somewhat above normal, rainfall still below average but starting to pick up a bit at a time, winds returning to a more average range too. Probably enough sunshine to reach normal amounts or possibly a bit higher.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals in the west and south. Winds will stay rather moderate west to northwest, dropping off to calm this evening. Any slight rainfalls with the overnight front have pretty much come and gone. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear with scattered light frosts, lows -1 to +3 C.

FRIDAY will become more overcast by late morning, rather mild in a moderate southwest wind. Highs 10 to 12 C.

SATURDAY will start out with some showers and blustery winds in the north, having less impact further south, as a weak front moves through, followed by partial clearing. Winds west to northwest 40-70 km/hr in some parts of the north. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud and some outbreaks of light rain, as another fast-moving but weak frontal disturbance tracks through the north around mid-afternoon. Lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.

MONDAY will become milder again with partly cloudy skies and highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will be mild with occasional light rain, highs 12 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be mild with southwest winds, leading to an interval of rain lasting into early Thursday, about 5-10 mm likely with this, and temperatures steady 10 to 12 C.

After that front passes, colder weather will set in gradually and temperatures will drop slowly for several days, reaching values somewhat below average by the second week of February. The pattern will likely be rather variable with a few milder days from time to time as well as the colder intervals, and it may be rather windy at times too.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast and cold with highs near -4 C. There's a rime frost on most of the trees and a bit of diffused sunlight getting through various cloud layers making it look a bit ghostly. The east coast of the U.S. are preparing for a storm but weather models are all over the place with guidance and nobody is too sure where the heaviest snow is going to hit, most likely around Boston with New York City more of a question mark at this point. There is no storm on the map yet so all of the development is going to take place late today and Friday off the southeast coast. By Saturday night a low will ;probably be somewhere near Cape Cod in southeast Massachusetts and a blizzard could then be raging across parts of New England and Long Island east of New York City.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 28 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 28 Jan to 3 Feb 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfalls will average about 50 per cent of normal in the north, 25 per cent or less in the south.

-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal.

-- Winds will finally start to blow at relatively normal speeds for this time of year, sometimes rather strong in the north.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy, generally dry with some light rain at times in the northwest. Highs 10 to 12 C. Moderate southwest winds 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with some clear intervals in the south, and squally showers arriving towards dawn in the north. Winds westerly at about 60 to 90 km/hr after midnight in northern counties, but more moderate further south. Temperatures steady 5 to 8 C.

SATURDAY will start out with a few blustery showers mainly north of Dublin to Galway, then a partial clearing trend by mid-day with sunny intervals for most in the afternoon. Winds west to northwest 50-80 km/hr across the north, slightly less blustery in the south. Highs 8 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will bring another round of showers or outbreaks of rain mainly in the northern counties once again, lasting for at least a few hours, but it may just stay partly cloudy and dry in some parts of the south as a disturbance races through Ulster and heads off towards central England. Winds across the north may increase rapidly around late morning, west to northwest 60 to 100 km/hr. These strong winds may extend further south too, without as much shower activity. Temperatures steady in the range of 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY will become rather mild again with westerly breezes and highs 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY will be very mild and could see highs of 12 to 15 C.

By WEDNESDAY a front will be approaching, rain will become steady and perhaps heavy at times in some western counties, and a sharp temperature drop will follow by THURSDAY (temperatures steady near 9 C until the front arrives then dropping towards 4-6 C).

Waves of colder air are likely to follow with perhaps brief intervals of rebounding milder temperatures ahead of each new cold front. The average for the first half of February may turn out rather close to average with the very mild start but there will definitely be a colder feel to the weather than much of this past month produced.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy, misty over hilltops, and cold with highs around -6 C. The east coast now bracing for a major snowstorm that threatens New England, Long Island, and parts of New York and New Jersey with up to 50-75 cm of wind-driven snow with temperatures well below freezing; the low will stay off the coast until reaching land in New Brunswick, Canada on Sunday. Anywhere west of its track will have near-blizzard conditions. On the other side of the track, very mild with squally rain showers. This looks like it could be a historic weather event at least in some parts of New England and Long Island. Its effects east of Greenland will be slight as most of the remnants will stay on the west side of Greenland or in the eastern Canadian arctic islands.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 29 January, 2022 ____ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain the same as previous report ...

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out quite windy, especially across Ulster and nearby parts of Connacht and Leinster, with west to northwest winds of 70-100 km/hr for most of the morning, and locally squally showers moving through quickly, reaching central counties before the front moves east into the Irish Sea. The southern half of the country may see part of the windy aspects of this but little of the showery portion. All regions will begin to clear mid-day and temperatures will begin to fall gradually after morning highs near 12 C. Winds will ease through the afternoon except in a few exposed coastal areas of the north.

TONIGHT will have a brief interval of cold and clear weather with frost forming but then dissipating as cloud moves in. Winds will stay rather light until about 0400h in the northwest when much stronger southwest winds will arrive there. Lows -2 to +2 C with rising temperatures towards dawn.

SUNDAY will see another round of windy and showery conditions, again more intense in the north but with a bit more spread into central and some southern counties this time, and longer in duration, with clearing only starting to develop after mid-afternoon in western counties, and by evening in the east. Winds will rise to levels of 70-110 km/hr in parts of the north and 50-80 km/hr in the south, southwest to west then later northwest, with about 5 to 10 mm of rain possible especially north of a Galway to Dublin line.

MONDAY will become partly cloudy and quite mild with westerly winds 50-70 km/hr, morning lows near 4 C and afternoon highs near 12 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy and very mild with lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will continue quite mild with increasing cloud, some rain by evening in the west, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.

THURSDAY will bring intervals of rain, gradually turning cooler in western counties, highs near 11 C east, 9 C west.

FRIDAY will be breezy to windy and considerably colder with passing showers, some of hail, and wintry on some hills. Highs near 5 C. Winds west to northwest 60-100 km/hr.

A colder interval will follow, then more variable with large swings in temperature expected during alternating periods of southwest and northwest winds.

My local weather on Friday was hazy with some sunshine but also the tops of a layer of valley fog visible to the south and east. It was quite cold with morning temperatures around -15 C and afternoon closer to -8 C.

The east coast of the U.S. are now getting their predicted snowstorm with a deep low developing off the New Jersey coast, heading towards Cape Cod by tonight. Some blizzard conditions are already occurring in coastal New Jersey and are imminent for Long Island. The worst of the storm will be during the afternoon and evening (local time) in New England. Boston could see 50-75 cms of snow, New York City more like 25 cms.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 30 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 30 Jan to 5 Feb 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average 2-3 deg above normal despite the last day of the weekly interval likely becoming quite cold.

-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, however much of that will occur on Thursday and Friday.

-- Sunshine will average near normal values, or possibly 25 per cent below normal in some northern areas.

-- Winds will often be quite strong, otherwise moderate, with only brief returns to the calm that had been prevalent earlier in the month.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see variable cloud cover across the south, but overcast in the north followed soon by outbreaks of rain there, eventually some squally showers with another fast moving cold front due in around mid-afternoon. Once again this will have less obvious impacts on the weather in the south. Winds will increase to 50-80 km/hr in the north with an interval of stronger gusts to 110 km/hr when the front is moving through. In the south winds will slowly increase to 40 km/hr and then will remain 40-70 km/hr, southwest veering to westerly, with more isolated showers. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm are likely in parts of Ulster, north Leinster and Connacht. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will continue quite windy and rather cold in the north, more moderate further south. The north could see some mixed wintry showers on higher ground, lows 2 to 5 C. Further south, likely fewer if any showers and lows 3 to 6 C.

MONDAY will slowly turn milder with the highest temperatures probably coming during the late afternoon and evening when it should be back up around 10 C (mid-day closer to 6-8 C). Winds westerly 40-70 km/hr, some weak bands of showers likely near Atlantic coasts especially in Connacht and west Ulster.

TUESDAY will be a very mild day just as the first of January was, and highs might be similar (14-15 C is possible). Partly cloudy skies will make it quite a pleasant day for this time of year.

WEDNESDAY will also be mild and generally dry although some outbreaks of light rain or drizzle might begin late afternoon or evening in the west. Highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY will become windy and wet with about 10-15 mm rainfalls, temperatures steady 8-10 C then falling sharply from west to east around the end of the day.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and cold with passing wintry showers, lows 1-3 C and highs 4-7 C.

It will likely turn a bit milder in stages to Sunday and early Monday when another sharp front is expected, with another cold spell following that.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast and chilly with highs around -5 C. The predicted blizzard came and went leaving the expected amounts of snow in most cases. Boston set a new one-day record with 23.8 inches which is about 61 cm. Some towns southeast of Boston reported 75 cm with drifts of 1.5 to 2 metres due to the strong winds. New York City had closer to 25 cm, and Long Island generally 40-60 cm with considerable drifting there. The storm weakened somewhat moving into eastern Canada where its track brought a wider mixture of precipitation. Meanwhile the snowstorm areas have cleared out to frigid temperatures near -18 C with the wind still quite strong from the northwest.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 31 January, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

No change to TRENDS as described yesterday, mostly rather mild, some rain around Thursday but otherwise rather dry, briefly colder Thursday night and Friday. Winds often moderate westerly.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, showers brief and confined mainly to Ulster and north Connacht, north Leinster. It will slowly turn milder with the highest temperatures probably coming during the late afternoon and evening when it should be back up around 10 C (with mid-day readings closer to 6-8 C). Winds westerly 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be overcast and mild with occasional drizzle, moderate westerly winds, lows 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY will be a very mild day just as the first of January was, and highs might be similar (14-15 C is possible in the south, 12-14 C more generally). Partly cloudy skies will make it quite a pleasant day for this time of year in the inland south and near the east coast as well as parts of the midlands. More overcast further north with a chance of drizzle or light rain at times. It may remain closer to 10 C in the far north.

WEDNESDAY will also be mild and generally dry although some outbreaks of light rain or drizzle might begin late afternoon or evening in the west. Highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY will become windy and wet with about 10-15 mm rainfalls, temperatures steady 8-10 C then falling sharply from west to east around the end of the day.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and cold with passing wintry showers, lows 1-3 C and highs 4-7 C.

It will likely turn a bit milder in stages to Sunday and early Monday when another frontal system is expected, with another somewhat colder spell following that for a day or two, but milder air seems likely to keep coming back and the monthly outlook is milder than average by at least one and possibly two degrees, with perhaps somewhat below normal rainfall although not as dry as January has been.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast and cold (around -5 C) with occasional light snow. We are expecting a bit more snow overnight then clearing and colder still. The eastern regions hit by the snowstorm had a clear and very cold day and record low temperatures could occur overnight (at this hour for example it is near -20 C in rural New England over the deep snow pack).

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 1 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar to yesterday's outline, mild, breezy, mostly cloudy, not a lot of rainfall expected (about half the normal amount).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies, a few brighter intervals possible inland south and east, and also small amounts of drizzle from time to time, more frequent near northwest coast. Highs 12-14 C inland south to east, 10-12 C elsewhere. Winds westerly 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT will continue breezy and mild with a bit of drizzle at times, overcast skies, westerly winds 30-50 km/hr. Lows 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with brighter intervals in the south and central counties, highs 11-13 C. Not quite as breezy, westerly 30-50 km/hr.

THURSDAY will bring occasional rain becoming heavier late in the day, turning colder late afternoon or evening in western regions. About 5-10 mm rain is expected. Lows near 7 C and highs 9-11 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy to windy, and colder, with passing mixed wintry showers, morning lows 2-4 C and temperatures not rising very much from those levels, possibly 5-7 C in the south by afternoon, 3-5 C north. Some accumulation of snow on hills. Winds west to northwest 50-80 km/hr with higher gusts possible near west-facing coasts.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, breezy to windy, and a bit milder again, with occasional light rain or drizzle, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-10 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy and mild with occasional light rain in the north mainly, highs 9-12 C.

MONDAY will become windy with an interval of rain developing, southwest winds 50-80 km/hr, highs near 11 C.

A weak cold front will edge into northern regions late Monday and make slow progress into the south-central counties before perhaps stalling and beginning to life back north by late Tuesday, winds will remain rather strong westerly, and some outbreaks of rain are likely, temperatures steady in the range of 6-8 C north, 8-11 C south. Very mild for a time later in the week, then becoming more variable in temperatures with the risk of strong gale or even storm force winds developing some time around the 12th to 14th (which is Darwin's time slot on 12th of 2014). Temperatures in that stormier period would likely remain steady around 7 to 9 C.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy with passing snow showers, 2-3 cms accumulation by afternoon, then it cleared up rapidly and turned a bit colder with the early high about -2 C. A fairly strong low developed to our northeast overnight (last night) and has crossed most of the prairies since then, where it will draw up a second storm forming around Colorado to Texas. This one is likely to become a fairly heavy snow producer for the central plains and Ohio valley into the inland northeastern states, with some freezing rain near the frontal boundary. Somewhat milder air is moving into the snow-covered eastern regions with partial melt of the snowpack expected but they will turn much colder again by about Friday once this new storm has passed to their north. All of the active weather across North America is now free to travel via the jet stream towards northwest Europe rather than taking the route it was taking in most of January up into western Greenland and Baffin Island. This explains the gradual change in the forecast pattern ahead to an increasingly unsettled outlook.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 2 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 Feb 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal. Friday will be a considerably colder day than most of the other days in this coming week.

-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, much of this will occur on Thursday.

-- Sunshine will average near normal with several cloudy days expected and some rather bright days as well.

-- Winds will average moderate southwest to west, occasionally stronger westerly.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few breaks, and some scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle more likely in Ulster, north Connacht and north Leinster. Even there, amounts will be slight, trace to 2 mm. Moderate westerly winds 30-50 km/hr but 50-70 km/hr near some coasts. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will be rather cloudy with drizzle at times, lows near 8 C.

THURSDAY will be overcast with rain, 10-15 mm expected, in southwest winds 40-70 km/hr. Highs 8 to 10 C, turning sharply colder from west to east overnight into Friday early morning.

FRIDAY will be breezy to windy and colder with passing wintry showers, lows near 2 C and highs 4-6 C. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr.

SATURDAY will begin to turn milder gradually, with partly cloudy to overcast skies, a chance of rain at times in the north, lows near 4 C and highs 8 to 10 C. Winds westerly 40-70 km/hr.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and mild with isolated showers, highs near 12 C.

On MONDAY a weak cold front will arrive and make some progress while weakening further, bringing rain to some northern counties, highs near 10 C.

Mid-week will continue quite mild. Eventually there are signs that either a stormy interval will develop, or the jet stream will divide and allow a blocking high to form over north-central Europe, in which case it would likely turn a bit colder although that pattern in late winter can sometimes lead to a slow warming trend with sunshine. The jury is out so to speak on which of these outcomes is more likely.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy and cold with passing snow showers giving a light accumulation, highs near -8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 3 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 Feb 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal. Friday will be a considerably colder day than most of the other days in this coming week.

-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, much of this will occur on Thursday. It is less certain but possible that another significant rainfall will arrive near the end of this interval (Wed 9th).

-- Sunshine will average near normal with several cloudy days expected and some rather bright days as well.

-- Winds will average moderate southwest to west, occasionally stronger westerly.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see increasing cloud soon leading to overcast skies with rain, 10-15 mm expected, by late afternoon or evening, in southwest winds 40-70 km/hr. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will be breezy with further rain in the east, showers turning wintry over higher ground in the west, especially in Connacht and west Ulster. Winds southwest veering westerly 40-70 km/hr. Lows near 4 C east, 1 to 3 C west.

FRIDAY will be breezy to windy and colder with passing wintry showers, lows near 2 C and highs 4-6 C. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr.

SATURDAY will begin to turn milder gradually, with partly cloudy to overcast skies, a chance of rain at times in the north, lows near 4 C and highs 8 to 10 C. Winds westerly 40-70 km/hr.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and mild with isolated showers, highs near 12 C.

On MONDAY a weak cold front will arrive and make some progress while weakening further, bringing rain to some northern counties, highs near 10 C.

The evolution of weather patterns next week is rather poorly defined with different models coming up with different solutions. I think that somewhat colder and more unsettled is a sort of cover-all that won't be too far from any of those different ideas, some of which are colder and others wetter than others.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy with light snow flurries moving through, more like ice crystals than snow actually, and they felt a bit moist when hitting one's face while out walking in the rather cold -8 C temperatures.

The central plains, Midwest, Ohio valley, lower Great Lakes and inland northeast are going to have two days of poorly defined frontal snow and freezing rain outbreaks, some of which could become disruptive to travel.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 4 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 Feb 2022

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal despite the cold start today.

-- Rainfalls will amount to near average although with growing uncertainty about amounts towards end of the interval.

-- Sunshine will average near normal values or possibly a bit below normal in places.

-- Winds generally moderate westerly, with occasional strong gusts.

FORECASTS

TODAY will feel quite wintry with passing showers of hail, sleet or snow possible. Highs 4 to 6 C. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr making it feel closer to about -2 C.

TONIGHT will bring increasing cloud and slowly rising temperatures. Lows in the north and east may touch zero C in the evening before starting to rise. Elsewhere it will start out 2-4 C and reach 7-9 C by morning in a continuing westerly wind of 40-70 km/hr. Occasional rain will develop across northern counties.

SATURDAY will be breezy to windy and rather cold in the north where temperatures will only edge up to around 7 C with frequent bouts of light rain or hail. Further south there will be a more distinct rise in temperatures to around 11 C. All regions will continue to see blustery west winds of 50-80 km/hr.

SUNDAY will turn considerably milder with partly cloudy skies, a touch of rain in the north and lows near 4 C, highs near 12 C and possibly higher in the inland south.

MONDAY will continue rather mild with lows near 7 C and highs near 12 or 13 C. Mostly dry with occasional light rain in the far north.

TUESDAY will be overcast with occasional light rain, temperatures steady around 10 C.

The evolution of this pattern later in the week is somewhat uncertain. Colder air is trying to mix in from the northwest and may succeed for a day or two mid-week but the temperature drop may be fairly small, followed by more rather mild temperatures again.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast and cold with highs near -7 C. If it's going to be this cold I wish it would clear up a bit for some brighter weather although that would come with very cold nights I suppose, meanwhile in the eastern U.S. some areas received 20-30 cms of snow and others had a freezing rain storm (in the Memphis area and northeast from there). These frontal bands will continue for another day and then the weather system will lose energy, failing to reach the larger cities on the east coast which have stayed a bit milder (around 10-15 C).

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 5 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 Feb 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, mildest Monday-Tuesday.

-- Rainfalls will probably approach normal amounts and possibly slightly above normal in the west.

-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal in a rather cloudy regime.

-- Winds will maintain moderate to strong speeds, mostly from a westerly direction.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy, with a few outbreaks of light rain at first, becoming more widespread and somewhat heavier by afternoon. About 5 mm on average will be recorded. Highs 8 to 10 C and winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be overcast, windy and sometimes rather wet as occasional rain continues, another 5 to 15 mm likely, heavier amounts in western counties. Lows 3 to 6 C. Winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr, sometimes stronger gusts near Atlantic coasts.

SUNDAY will see a gradual improvement across the south, but it may stay blustery and unsettled further north with another 5 to 10 mm rain possible there. Winds will ease slightly to 50-80 km/hr and west-southwest by afternoon. Highs 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY will be milder with partly cloudy skies and only isolated showers, morning lows 2 to 5 C, afternoon highs 11 to 14 C.

TUESDAY will continue mild with rain developing from northwest to southeast during the day, lows near 8 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY will turn somewhat colder with brisk westerly winds, outbreaks of rain and lows near 6 C, highs near 9 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, some rather wintry, in modified cold air, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

There will be another milder interval towards the weekend of 12th-13th, perhaps lasting into Monday 14th, before colder air returns. This pattern looks to be fairly locked in with oscillations above and below normal continuing on about a 3-5 day cycle. There will likely be near normal amounts of rain with these temperature swings, and occasional blustery periods with strong winds during frontal passages. Often late February sees some kind of blocking and in this pattern, the most likely type of blocking would be a mild spell with high pressure building up from the Atlantic. But that is a bit too far over the "event horizon" to be much more than speculation at this point.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with light snow, about 5 cms fell, and temperatures were near -7 C. The northeast states continued to see outbreaks of snow and freezing rain but that storm has weakened considerably and its remnants are now over eastern Canada with cold air flooding in from the north to cover even those coastal regions that saw no wintry precipitation recently. The heaviest snowfalls (Thursday-Friday) were from northern Indiana and Ohio into parts of western NY state where 30-40 cm amounts were recorded.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 6 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue as discussed yesterday, rather windy and unsettled at times with near normal temperatures overall, mildest tomorrow and Tuesday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see a gradual improvement across the south, with less frequent showers and partly cloudy intervals, highs 9-11 C, but it may stay blustery and unsettled further north with another 5 to 10 mm rain possible there, highs 7-9 C. Winds will ease slightly to 50-80 km/hr and west-southwest by afternoon but some northern counties could see stronger gusts through the mid-day period.

TONIGHT will bring some partial clearing and diminished winds inland, which could lead to a slight frost in places, lows generally 2-4 C.

MONDAY will be milder with partly cloudy skies and only isolated showers, morning lows 2 to 5 C, afternoon highs 11 to 14 C, mildest inland south.

TUESDAY will continue mild with rain developing from northwest to southeast during the day, lows near 8 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY will turn somewhat colder with brisk westerly winds, outbreaks of rain and lows near 6 C, highs near 9 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, some rather wintry, in modified cold air, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

This colder air is being swept around a very deep low that will track from near Iceland towards Norway, so while there is not much southward push of truly arctic air, the origin of this air mass for later in the week is basically the eastern Canadian arctic and southern Greenland; the 7-9 C waters of the far North Atlantic will be the only warming influence on an air mass that will leave those regions as cold as -10 C.

This modified arctic feed will relax by next weekend as the low, much weakened, will drift across Scandinavia. This will bring temperatures slowly back up towards normal values with just small amounts of rain likely in partly cloudy to overcast conditions, highs near 8 C Saturday and 10 C Sunday.

By next Monday (14th) a brief mild incursion will be followed by strong westerly winds and another shot of the colder maritime arctic air which should persist through the middle of the week. From there on the pattern looks like a constant alternation of mild and cold intervals balancing out near normal overall. It will often be quite windy and showery though.

My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy with rather cold temperatures near -5 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 7 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 Feb 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal but the first two days will be quite mild, while later in the week it will turn considerably colder. Temperatures will be moderating again by Saturday 12th, so overall it should balance out to near average.

-- Rainfalls will be 25 per cent above normal in the northwest, to about 25-50 per cent below normal in the southeast. Some of the precipitation will turn wintry at times later in the week.

-- Sunshine will average about 25 to 50 per cent below normal.

-- Winds will be moderate to strong westerly most of the time.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of drizzle or light rain in some areas, little accumulation expected. Milder than recent days with highs 11 to 13 C. Moderate southwest winds 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT will bring intervals of light rain, moving gradually further south from west Ulster and north Connacht. Lows 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY will continue rather mild with rain at times, fragmenting to showers as the front slides further south. A few brighter spells may develop after the rain moves past. Highs 11 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY will become rather windy with slowly falling temperatures and passing showers, some with hail and thunder, and blustery west winds of about 70 to 90 km/hr. Morning lows near 6 C and afternoon highs 8 to 10 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be quite cold days with mixed wintry showers, heavier in the north and west, with the chance of snow accumulations on higher ground. Winds west to northwest 70 to 90 km/hr. Lows near 1 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

By SATURDAY a slow moderating trend will be underway with occasional light rain, winds backing to southwesterly 50-80 km/hr, and highs near 9 C.

SUNDAY will also be rather mild with occasional rain and strong southwest winds, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.

MONDAY (14th) will be windy and unsettled with colder air moving back in, temperatures falling slowly during the day, in the 6-9 C range.

Another cold spell is expected to follow, with further oscillations of temperatures to follow, and the risk of very strong winds at times, as the jet stream becomes energized by the clash between very cold arctic air and milder air masses from the central Atlantic.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a bit of sun getting through higher cloud layers at times, misty over nearby hills, and a bit milder with a high near -3 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 8 February, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 Feb 2022

Rather cold at times, the average will be about 1 deg below normal with some milder days in the mix.

Frequent showers in the west and north will build up near-normal totals there, but the pattern is drier for the south and east (50-75 per cent).

Sunny at times almost every day, so with normal sunshine barely 2 hours a day, it won't be difficult to approach that average.

Windy most of the time, sometimes blustery, with directions seldom far from due west.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and light rain will gradually spread across parts of the west-central counties then towards Leinster mostly staying north of a Dublin to Shannon line, but areas north and south of this band of 3-5 mm rainfalls may see lighter amounts too. Rather mild again with highs around 11 or 12 C, except 8-10 C in north Connacht and most of Ulster. Moderate southwest to west winds 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT will become more windy with the band of rain pushing south followed by partial clearing and rather cold temperatures towards dawn, with lows of 1-3 C for most, 3-5 C south coast.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with strong westerly winds and passing showers, becoming wintry on higher ground in the west and north in particular, winds 50-80 km/hr and highs 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY will be even slightly colder again with more widespread mixed wintry showers, some accumulations of snow likely on hills in Ulster and Connacht. Winds west to northwest 50-80 km/hr, but easing later in the day. Lows near -1 C and highs near 5 C.

FRIDAY will see a very slight warming trend setting in, with winds southwest 40-60 km/hr, still some wintry showers at first, also some brighter spells, lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C.

SATURDAY will become windy (SW 60-90 km/hr) with intervals of rain, milder with highs near 12 C.

SUNDAY will begin to turn colder in westerly winds of 60-90 km/hr, passing showers and highs near 9 C.

MONDAY will also be rather cool with a few showers, some possibly wintry on hills in the north, highs near 7 C.

Another milder spell will follow, and the constant oscillation of temperatures on a 3-4 day cycle will continue for a while but there are tentative signs of a more settled period of weather starting towards the end of the week (or around the 18th into weekend 19th-20th); this may eventually bring a milder spell although the settled weather looks close to average in temperature to begin.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and milder than it has been for about two months, with a high near 4 C. The sun is evaporating snow as fast as it is melting, but there was a trickle of meltwater running down hills where pavements are bare, otherwise the snow pack here has slumped a bit from its earlier peak of 45 cm and is now closer to 35 cm. These are probably prime ski-ing conditions but in higher mountain ranges there is a growing avalanche risk. The very mild air spread into most of Alberta and Montana with the chinook bringing temperatures up above 15 C in places. The eastern half of the continent remains rather cold with light snow or sleet in places.