Local & European Elections 2009 - Part Two ** New Poll **

Sully

Okay list has been finalised so I reset the poll.

Warren Brennan (Green Party - Ward 1 North) has dropped out of the race. He is replaced by Ramasamy Senthil (Independent).

Michael Ivory (Independent) is now running in Ward 2 East.

The results of the poll at this time of posting was..
FG - 15
Lab - 6
FF - 4
GP -11
SF - 9
Ind - 4
Workers etc. - 5
Cant Vote - 1
Wont Vote - 2
Undecided - 3
Other - 1

wfman

what happens if senthill Ramasamy wins a seat in both wards?

jmcc

nkay1985 wrote: »

I don't know could you call getting in by 100 votes scraping in, in fairness. With an extra seat going out there and Fine Gael's current popularity, I'd find it surprising for D'Arcy to not hold on.

Because he was dependent on transfers to scrape in on the last count without reaching the quota.

Regards...jmcc

nkay1985

Sully wrote: »

Okay list has been finalised so I reset the poll.

Is there a reason why people who've already voted can't vote again?

wfman wrote: »

what happens if senthill Ramasamy wins a seat in both wards?

I didn't think you could declare in more than one ward because of this exact situation.

jmcc wrote: »

Because he was dependent on transfers to scrape in on the last count without reaching the quota.

Regards...jmcc

Yeah but sure so was Tom Cunningham. And Jope Kelly and Davy Walsh in Ward 1. And Mary O'Halloran in Ward 3. There's always going to be someone that gets elected on transfers. He still ended up 100 votes ahead of his nearest rival.

jmcc

merlante wrote: »

I thought about this. I think what it means is that 18-35 yr old, tech. savvy users, with an interest in local politics (to read this thread) are quite green in their outlook.

Exactly. This demographic is always overrepresented in online polls but in this case, the Green demographic and the "young digerati" demographic have a high level of overlap. The interesting thing was that Fianna Fail support was supposed to be high in the over sixties - not exactly the boards.ie demographic and the figures in the vote reflected this.

I personally think the Greens could evolve into a major party in Ireland in the wake of the complete destruction of FF in the next general election, as the civil war voter belt gets that much older and the rest of us are sick of the country being run by vintners, farmers and dynasties. Also, I see the far left shrinking over time, particularly SF, and Labour will have to be dynamic to stay relevant.

Possibly. The Greens had a mini-split with some of the idealogues like McKenna leaving. But as a political party it has a lot of growing to do yet and in Waterford, replacing McCann was a sign of the Greens' maturity.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

nkay1985 wrote: »

Yeah but sure so was Tom Cunningham. And Jope Kelly and Davy Walsh in Ward 1. And Mary O'Halloran in Ward 3. There's always going to be someone that gets elected on transfers. He still ended up 100 votes ahead of his nearest rival.

Yes but if SF hadn't done so badly on transfers, D'Arcy wouldn't have got in. From what I can see of the stats, D'Arcy was a weak candidate who was lucky to get in on the FG ticket. Look at the transfers in that link again:
http://www.electionsireland.org/transfers.cfm?election=2004L&cons=229

The transfers from McCann/Green went to mainly FG and Labour. With a strong Green candidate this time, and someone who is not McCann, the prospect of those transfers happening in the same way this time are somewhat lower. There is a possibility (rather than a probability) that the Green candidate this time could actually take a seat. The "social conscience" vote that would have been split between the Greens and Labour may now favour the Greens because of the novelty factor.

This will affect second and third choice candidates like D'Arcy who are completely dependent on transfers to get elected. The PDs not running this time out also makes the situation murkier.

Just in case you think I've anything against FG, I'm a floating voter and am not a member of any party.

Regards...jmcc

wfman

with the extra seat in the ward i think darcy will be ok.he raised his profile running in the general election and his vote will increase from 2004.

jmcc

wfman wrote: »

with the extra seat in the ward i think darcy will be ok.he raised his profile running in the general election and his vote will increase from 2004.

Were the boundaries redrawn and if so, what extra areas were included?

Regards...jmcc

nkay1985

jmcc wrote: »

The transfers from McCann/Green went to mainly FG and Labour. With a strong Green candidate this time, and someone who is not McCann, the prospect of those transfers happening in the same way this time are somewhat lower. There is a possibility (rather than a probability) that the Green candidate this time could actually take a seat. The "social conscience" vote that would have been split between the Greens and Labour may now favour the Greens because of the novelty factor.

This is where I think we diverge in views - I don't see Maria Raftis-Kennedy as a strong candidate (sorry if you're reading this Maria!). The only advantage is that she's not McCann, but he didn't have such a bad reputation five years ago. I think the new candidate is quite weak with an almost non-existant profile so, while she'll do ok, I can't see her polling higher than someone who's eben pretty active as a councillor for five years and has a general election under his belt too.

jmcc wrote: »

Just in case you think I've anything against FG, I'm a floating voter and am not a member of any party.

Regards...jmcc

Didn't think that at all. Sure I couldn't care less - my father's a Sinn Fein councillor!

Dr. Baltar

Sinn Féin gets my number 1 and Labour gets my number 2

Sully

Sir Baralot wrote: »

Sinn Féin gets my number 1 and Labour gets my number 2

Locally? I assume this isn't based on party so? Id imagine David Cullinane is a shoe-in.

jmcc

nkay1985 wrote: »

This is where I think we diverge in views - I don't see Maria Raftis-Kennedy as a strong candidate (sorry if you're reading this Maria!). The only advantage is that she's not McCann, but he didn't have such a bad reputation five years ago. I think the new candidate is quite weak with an almost non-existant profile so, while she'll do ok, I can't see her polling higher than someone who's eben pretty active as a councillor for five years and has a general election under his belt too.

It is one of my phase of the moon theories that the Green candidate's vote is more an ethicall vote than a personal vote. This means that though the candidate could be relatively unknown, they will get votes from people who are voting from their own point of view or ethics - they vote Green because they believe in recycling, saving the environment etc. This is what I mean by the "social conscience" vote. D'Arcy is more a background activist from what I've seen - a classic joiner rather than leader. It was a big mistake for FG to run him as a Dail candidate and it may have cost them a seat. Keneally wasn't a strong candidate and had there been better vote management by FG, they could have got that seat.

Then there is the "not another f*cking school teacher" effect. With the employment levies and the recession, the whingeing of teachers about how they are affected has irritated a lot of genuinely affected people (the self-employed and SME owners) in the real world who don't have cushy three months Summer holidays and fat pensions. In Waterford East/Ward 2, a business head candidate might pick up votes due to this effect. (This is a potential reason for the PDs getting votes in the last LE).

It would not be surprising to see an Independent FF or FFer edge D'Arcy out in the last counts. The FF vote was badly hit last time out with the RadioTherapy campaign and it would, ordinarily, be due for a bit of a rebound. The rebound effect will not be as pronounced due to the recession on the gombeenarchy at the head of FF. However FF may regain a few seats in Waterford and this might come as a surprise to some.

Regards...jmcc

AdMMM

I've seen Fianna Fail candidates and their canvassers being chased out of estates and going from door to door getting roared at. I'd be very surprised if they manage to get more than 1 seat.

wfman

id give ff no chance in ward 1(north).2 first time candidates running.big mistake by ff not to run sean dower.
ward 3 (south) shows what an election machine ff can be when they can get someone like tom murphy elected.i think his vote will fall but he'll probably be around in the shake up for the last seat.
ward 2 (east)best chance of a gain but too many candidates running.

id like to think ff could be wiped out in the city.it wouldnt suprise me if fg got 3 seats in ward 2 east.

wfman

jmcc wrote: »

It is one of my phase of the moon theories that the Green candidate's vote is more an ethicall vote than a personal vote. This means that though the candidate could be relatively unknown, they will get votes from people who are voting from their own point of view or ethics - they vote Green because they believe in recycling, saving the environment etc. This is what I mean by the "social conscience" vote. D'Arcy is more a background activist from what I've seen - a classic joiner rather than leader. It was a big mistake for FG to run him as a Dail candidate and it may have cost them a seat. Keneally wasn't a strong candidate and had there been better vote management by FG, they could have got that seat.

Then there is the "not another f*cking school teacher" effect. With the employment levies and the recession, the whingeing of teachers about how they are affected has irritated a lot of genuinely affected people (the self-employed and SME owners) in the real world who don't have cushy three months Summer holidays and fat pensions. In Waterford East/Ward 2, a business head candidate might pick up votes due to this effect. (This is a potential reason for the PDs getting votes in the last LE).

It would not be surprising to see an Independent FF or FFer edge D'Arcy out in the last counts. The FF vote was badly hit last time out with the RadioTherapy campaign and it would, ordinarily, be due for a bit of a rebound. The rebound effect will not be as pronounced due to the recession on the gombeenarchy at the head of FF. However FF may regain a few seats in Waterford and this might come as a surprise to some.

Regards...jmcc

jim darcy could end up getting the 3rd seat.out of the 3 fg candidates in 2004 he got the highest vote.since then he's been out in the area for the 2007 general election.fg will hold 2 seats at least.
2004 was darcys first time running and i believe his vote will only increase as will transfers to him.

M.RaftisKennedy

jmcc wrote: »

It is one of my phase of the moon theories that the Green candidate's vote is more an ethicall vote than a personal vote. This means that though the candidate could be relatively unknown, they will get votes from people who are voting from their own point of view or ethics - they vote Green because they believe in recycling, saving the environment etc. This is what I mean by the "social conscience" vote.


I would like to clarify if I may that I have a lot of people voting for me on a personal vote more than an ethical vote. People are not just going to vote for me solely because they believe in recycling, saving the enviornment etc, they also need a person who has had experience working within the community and working with people from the community and someone who is not afraid to speak their mind when they see injustice happening. They want someone who has a strong voice and finally someone who can help people out on a personal level and who can get things done and I have done that in a private capacity. While I respect the people who wish to vote for me because of those views ie recycling , enviornment etc, that is great, but I am more into social justice , community development ,child safety , health, social inclusion,improve facilities for people with disabilities, and many other important issues. I am a first time candidate.
I returned to education as a mature student to do general nursing and at present have put my degree on pause. I have worked at Waterford Regional Hospital, Wexford General Hospital and a private Nursing home facility here in the City, also, I have in the past worked in the Sacred Heart Centre in Lady Lane. Having worked in the health sector, I have worked with and met people from all walks of life. If elected as a councillor I know my job will be more than just being on the council changing speeding limits, I know I will become a counsellor as well and act as an advocate for people who find themselves in vunerable situations who haven't the strength at that given time to help themselves, I will be a stepping stone for them and I will get things done. I would also like to point out to people that while our leader John Gormley is head of Local Government, he allocates the funds to City and Co.Councils around the country, it would be in Waterford City's best interest to vote to have a green councillor ,because, on election, Waterford City Council would then have direct contact with that department and Waterford City would have a voice. I have heard we are being ignored by Dublin, our voice is not heard, well now is the perfect opportunity for our voice to be heard we will have direct contact with that department on election.

I have had a great response at the doors when I introduce myself and let people know WHO I AM. I will not bulls**t people at the doors and fill them with empty promises, actually I do not promise them anything at all, except to say if they vote for me, they will get someone who is an ordinary person like themselves, someone who is honest, can stand on the transparency and integrity of the Green Party. The Only Party that does not will not and shall continue to never accept corporate donations, never been involved in corruption and have been a political party since 1981 and the fact that I can get things done.They like what I stand for knowing my background and the areas where I have worked.I am a mother to four daughters and my husband is a full time firefighter with Waterford City Fire Service for 28yrs and we all know the situations those guys deal with on a day to day basis.We are a Waterford City Family that want change, and I believe we need it.

I have been living in Waterford City for nearly 18 years and in those nearly 18 years, I have heard the same issues and it's becoming insulting to the people when 5 yrs in and 5 yrs out we have some candidates knocking on doors making promises they do not keep and have the nerve and neck to knock on the doors the following 5 yrs and ask for their vote. People want change, people want it now, now for the City, they want new heads in City Hall, and they want someone at the doors who is not gonna bulls**t them and they want someone on election that can be a proper voice for the people of Our City.

Anyway I could go on for ages!!! but I better go, I have more canvassing to do, and being such a late candidate in the run up to the elections, I have catching up to do!!!! so if I do not knock personally at your door, my apologies. I am trying to knock on as many doors as possible.I have dinner to make later as well!! Spuds, chicken ,gravy and veggies!!!

Nice to say Hi to people on here, and keep up the chatting, it's good to talk and air views!!!.
PS: Here is a link to an interview I had with Billy on Deise AM http
/www.wlrfm.com/Podcasts/Player/TabId/535/VideoId/147/Deise-AM-Thursday-May-14th-2009-Part-2.aspx

jmcc

wfman wrote: »

jim darcy could end up getting the 3rd seat.out of the 3 fg candidates in 2004 he got the highest vote.since then he's been out in the area for the 2007 general election.fg will hold 2 seats at least.

He may have gotten his own highest number of votes, however according to the link below, in terms of first preferences, he was way down the field.

http://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2004L&cons=229

i believe his vote will only increase as will transfers to him.

He will have to hope that they do. I don't think that he will get enough transfers this time as the situation is quite different to 2004.

Regards...jmcc

wfman

jmcc wrote: »

He may have gotten his own highest number of votes, however according to the link below, in terms of first preferences, he was way down the field.

http://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2004L&cons=229

He will have to hope that they do. I don't think that he will get enough transfers this time as the situation is quite different to 2004.

Regards...jmcc

i still think the 5 sitting cllr's will hold their seats.the race for the extra seat will be interesting.if jacqueline kelly isnt in the shake up for the extra seat surely her transfers will be enough to get darcy and cunningham home.

jmcc

M.RaftisKennedy wrote: »

I would like to clarify if I may that I have a lot of people voting for me on a personal vote more than an ethical vote.

That's as maybe but the ethical or "social conscience" vote will be what makes the difference. Some of it will be second and third preference votes and these may turn into transfers. Most of those elected were elected on transfers rather than just first preferences. McCann failed to get any significant number of transfers in 2004. He was unusually transfer repellent and I think that this is the pattern for single issue candidates - the first preferences are all they tend to get and the transfers tend to be minimal. The "anyone but McCann" effect may boost these transfers but I'd almost expect that you will do better than McCann on first preferences, even as a first time candidate. In the end, it will be down to transfers.

Regards...jmcc

Sully

Bare in mind its unlikely the Greens will be in government much longer which isn't something worth considering when voting Green (in terms of the advantages). God knows, they probably wont get in with FG/Labour anyway. We went over some of this already in the County debate and John referred onto other departments which gave money out for roads etc. who were not the green party. Also, Greens credibility and promises are near worthless as they have backtracked on a lot of their "promises". Hence, opinion polls are showing a drop in support with the Greens rushing to push in their policies and hold the current government to ransom. I thought candidates wanted these elections to be about local issues and not what there party does/can do?

Its not very fair to say "Vote for me because ill contact John Gormley as a Green Candidate" (not a direct quote). If that's the best we can get from candidates, god help us! FF are the majority, they control most and its not exactly a line trotted on their election campaign. Greens are a weak minority under FFs thumb. It seems even local governments are, I guess sadly, ignoring what John has said in regards to land zoning.

I'm sure you are known around Waterford and have plenty community work under your belt, but the lads are right in their summary about the Green vote. I think it will work both ways. You will get both type of votes imo.

Trotter

I'm torn between relief at seeing a new Green candidate, and a refusal to vote for the Green Party given what they've done in government in providing FF with the platform to crush the country. I genuinely feel that the grass roots of the Greens are frustrated with whats going on in the Dáil, but I feel think that those at the roots of the party should have put enough pressure on those at the top to pull out of government by now. Because of that, I will not be voting green until I see these grass root members acting to tackle their power drunk TD's and leaders who have led the party into being fully associated with the disgraceful arrogance that is Fianna Fáil.

For me, that outweighs the analysis of how a councillor can perform at local level. I'll be choosing from the best options from FG, Labour and Independents.

I'd love to vote for a new local green candidate, but not while they allow their TDs to continually vote for motions that they would have abhorred if they were in opposition.

Sully

Also remember that the members voted that the greens voted to go into government with FF. I'm delighted some have stepped aside as a result of the broken promises and its becoming clear the Greens are distancing themselves from FF.

Typewriter

This poll is a farse!

Why reset it to not allow people who voted already have their say? This thread should be closed and a new one created.

So much for democracy, sully you should be ashamed of your self your 'lets do this as many times until we get this right' approach is ridiculous.

Why cant people hear have there say? So what if you don't like it.

wfman

green_jesus wrote: »

This poll is a farse!

Why reset it to not allow people who voted already have their say? This thread should be closed and a new one created.

So much for democracy, sully you should be ashamed of your self your 'lets do this as many times until we get this right' approach is ridiculous.

Why cant people hear have there say? So what if you don't like it.

the poll would still be a farse if he opened it up again.

M.RaftisKennedy

It seems even local governments are, I guess sadly, ignoring what John has said in regards to land zoning.

Hi Sully, below is an update on the land zoning issue. I did not write this myself so don't shoot the messenger!!.

Regards

Maria.

Green Party leader John Gormley today urged a full debate on the role that local councillors have played in creating the ill-fated ‘property bubble.’

The Local Government Minister today said that serious, excessive and inappropriate re-zonings over the last decade had been a big factor in inflating development land prices around the country.

"Fine Gael and Labour have been very quick to point fingers of blame about the property boom. Yet with 44 per cent of all council seats, they bear a responsibility they have yet to acknowledge," Minister Gormley said.

The Green leader said the lands involved were sold on for massive sums on the strength of these questionable re-zonings. "The single most important powers councillors have are the drawing up of development plans and the zoning of land," he added.

The Local Government Minister said there was no attempt to prevent his intervention in council zoning cases in Mayo, Monaghan and Dungarvan and he expected to publish a new Planning Bill very shortly.

"People in the forthcoming elections need to be aware that many of the councillors from the main political parties were behind these excessive re-zonings - taken against the advice of planners – and benefited small groups of landowners and speculators in their local areas," he said.

In particular Fine Gael councillors had been embroiled in rezoning controversies across the country, and have embarked on nothing short of a rezoning frenzy in some cases. Yet the party leadership has been utterly silent on this behaviour with one case in Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny’s home base of Mayo.

Sully

The poll is open but your cookie is set that you voted. I need to create a new one rather then removing figures, ill do it later today.

Maria; I agree to an extent as iv seen it locally here. I would hope they can learn from this.

Sully

Okay, thread changed. You can now vote again

Gael23

I heard that a FF candidate had their car vandalised recently. Just shows the feelings out there for FF. Also while I was canvassing yesterday a man told us he handed back a leaflet to an FF canvasser

Sully

Having spoken with a canvasser from the opposition in Cork - he claims that the feelings are "mixed" and are not as being made out in the press in the Cork area.

AdMMM

ryanf1 wrote: »

I heard that a FF candidate had their car vandalised recently. Just shows the feelings out there for FF. Also while I was canvassing yesterday a man told us he handed back a leaflet to an FF canvasser

Suppose that's a bit more civilised compared to the candidate being chased out of Grantstown Village with a hurley!