Local & European Elections 2009 - Part Two ** New Poll **

wfman

Ramasamy, Senthil - Independent now running in ward 3 south.
if they put a ballot box down in the south eastern health board he should clean up.

Sully

Some more stats I missed;
Brian Cowen scores just 18%, a fall of six since February.

Enda Kenny is up three at 33%, while Eamon Gilmore has the highest satisfaction rating at 51%, up 7.

John Gormley at 25% is down four and Gerry Adams at 34% is up two.

nkay1985

wfman wrote: »

the workers party have run 2 and candidates in ward 3 before.im sure if john halligan was still in the workers party moore would be running anyway.
in 2004 halligan had billy mcarthy running with him who got 150 votes.

Oh yeah, I know that. But I'm saying that the fact that the quota will be so hight will be bad news for Moore. If the quota was the same as last time, Halligan would probably have reached it and had a bit of a surplus to give to Moore. Now he won't.

Sully wrote: »

Some more stats I missed;
Brian Cowen scores just 18%, a fall of six since February.

Enda Kenny is up three at 33%, while Eamon Gilmore has the highest satisfaction rating at 51%, up 7.

John Gormley at 25% is down four and Gerry Adams at 34% is up two.

I don't know will Enda ever score high enough to show that people want him as Taoiseach. I think he's done an amazing job with Fine Gael, bridging rifts and getting them moving in a better direction. But the man has got zero charisma and is completely unpersonable. I believe that Fine Gael will form the next government and we'll effectively be stuck with him as Taoiseach, even though the majority of people won't want him!

I heard the point raised a few days ago that people seem to forget how truly awful he was in the debate with Bertie (hardly a formidable opponent). This is the man who will next lead our country and I'm saddened by that fact.

Sully

Ill quote what I said over in the main politics forum, which I think covers this fairly well. Dont kill me for the lack of SF comment

Sully wrote: »

Gilmore is a better speaker then Kenny and speaks much more freely. What he says warms with the peoples hearts and minds, which I think is starting to wear off. People were looking for someone for ages and Labour and Gilmore were there. Jumping on anything that would get them support. Gilmore was down here recently speaking about Waterford Crystal - which will score him points as its an issue that is so close to peoples hearts and there is a lot of anger with FFs lack of support about it. Gilmore is a much better communicator which is what the people see. Kenny doesn't have that spark but offers a very strong leadership skill set and presents an excellent party, picking the best squad. Gilmore is an instant hit with the people, while Kenny is slower to grow on people who don't actually see the man for what he really can offer and do for the country if he was elected. I guess you cant have everything!

Labour knock the government on everything. There never happy. There problem is; they offer nothing in return. There polices, compared to FG, are not great. There team overall is not as strong as FG. FG have the new support because not only are they hitting the government on issues that matter, there offering alternative plans on what they knock. There not jumping on everything and they will happily give the government a thumbs up on anything they consider good - no matter how small. Some of what FF are doing is based on FG plans. This explains why the party is doing better then Labour. I haven't covered the fact Labour still, to this day, wont rule out going into government with FF. Gilmore knows this is their weak point, but wants to be in power so will take the hit.

In short: Gilmore is a better speaker and presenter, knows what will make people happy and targets that. Not a strong leader, offers a poor team and will do anything to get into government. Kenny is a good speaker, but not as good as Gilmore. Very strong leadership and offers an excellent party and troops to pull this country together.

Iv left out Gerry Adams & Co. as there smaller party's who, at the moment, are not worth talking about in depth.

nkay1985

Sully wrote: »

Ill quote what I said over in the main politics forum, which I think covers this fairly well. Dont kill me for the lack of SF comment

Well I'll leave you off with it this time. You're right to say the others aren't worth talking about at the moment. But I would extend that to Gilmore; I don't think that there are any circumstances that can transpire in the next (insert how long you think it'll be until the next General Election here) that would make Labour the biggest party in the country and Gilmore the Taoiseach.

FG will win the next election. They will be in government short of some serious sly dealing on the part of the other parties. And Enda Kenny will be Taoiseach by consequence, not due to any brilliance (or any anything IMO) on his part.

I went to see him speak in UL before the last Generals to give him a chance. I lived with the Vice President for YFG at the time and had given him such a hard time about Kenny that he told me to go see him in person and see what I thought. I have never been so underwhelmed by any individual in my entire life. The man had no presence in a room of 50 20-year-old students for God's sake! And he got his ass handed to him in a debate by Bertie Ahern!

If we have to have FG in government, I would prefer that it wasn't he who leads them there. I would be more confident in the likes of Richard Bruton in the job. (How about George Lee becomes Minister for Finance, Bruton becomes Leader and Kenny is asked to move shoved sideways under pretence of family issues or some sort of thing! Solve the problem straight away.

jmcc

Partizan wrote: »

FF will not be wiped out in Waterford. Murphy will lose his seat but I'm tipping O'Neill to win a seat for FF in Ward 2.

She's the cousin of sitting TD Brendan Keneally (even mentioned it on her election literature. Do you have any idea of the backlash against FF and its nepotism that has built up in recent months? That medical card fiasco would have got FF reps killed around here if they were visible.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

Gulamugas wrote: »

Surely Keating must have a reasonable chance in East

Ordinarily she would have. She's been FF for years. However this is not an ordinary time.

Wyse, O'Neill and herself will be competing with Ivory for a seat. Ivory was FF, I think, but left around the time of the last Locals. Roche was also FF and is probably the most capable of the lot. FF gave the second FF Dail nomination to Keneally in a Tweedledum and Tweedledee move (the other FFer was Ollie Wilkinson so it was one of the two of them who would get elected). The second FF seat has bounced between these two lessers for years with Cullen getting the main FF vote.

Regards...jmcc

Paige Turner

Sully wrote: »

Johns finishing college exams, so would have been unable to attend. For this reason, Paudie would have kept him updated on what happened and as most candidates would do they would make it an issue on the doorsteps. Iv brought it up in the past with him and others in terms of Waterford YFG as the parking is terrible (someone from YFG actually commented on how bad it was when they paid a visit and were genuinely taken aback by how bad it was!) so I know its something he is looking seriously into.

Iv been told that John was responsible for an estate in Waterford getting serious road improvements and layouts addressed after they raised it with him on the door step. I'm not sure what estate.

Have to hand it to John Cummins, he did improve road conditions in Ursuline Cresent too. New Stop signs have been erected and potholes filled in - things that have been requested for a long time. Found him to be a very nice lad and wish him well during the elections.

nutri grain

I have been following this thread with interest over the last week or so and have to respond to some of the comments about John Cummins. I don't believe the City Council will entertain representations from a candidate on any issue. If he is claiming such then it is more likely that it is his father who is actually working behind the scenes.

Regarding the work in Ursuline Crescent - it was a sitting councillor who was approached by residents in the area and got this done.

Gulamugas

nutri grain wrote: »

I have been following this thread with interest over the last week or so and have to respond to some of the comments about John Cummins. I don't believe the City Council will entertain representations from a candidate on any issue. If he is claiming such then it is more likely that it is his father who is actually working behind the scenes.

Regarding the work in Ursuline Crescent - it was a sitting councillor who was approached by residents in the area and got this done.

Have to agree.if the council were to react to all representations by candidates then all the problems of the city would be solved in a matter of weeks. I would say dad and others had been petitioning the council for a long time and john just got lucky that it happened at the right time.

Sully

nutri grain wrote: »

I have been following this thread with interest over the last week or so and have to respond to some of the comments about John Cummins. I don't believe the City Council will entertain representations from a candidate on any issue. If he is claiming such then it is more likely that it is his father who is actually working behind the scenes.

I would have assumed that would have been known.

Regarding the work in Ursuline Crescent - it was a sitting councillor who was approached by residents in the area and got this done.

What work is this?

Also.. whats your hidden agenda? Its more then just an interest, clearly.

Paige Turner

Sully wrote: »

I would have assumed that would have been known.



What work is this?

There was a large pothole at the enterance to Ursuline Crescent and new stop signs have been put in place at the Ursuline Mews enterance to show right of way to people coming from the Ursuline Crescent enterance. Can be a bit of a nightmare there sometimes if it is anyway busy. (Dog Track nights)

Have family living in the area and they received a letter from John Cummins stating the concerns that he had been met with at the doors and what he had done to solve them - Road conditions being one of them. Now I' m sure it was more than a help to him with his family situation, but many are glad for these works to be carried out, whoever was responsible.

Sully

Paige Turner wrote: »

There was a large pothole at the enterance to Ursuline Crescent and new stop signs have been put in place at the Ursuline Mews enterance to show right of way to people coming from the Ursuline Crescent enterance. Can be a bit of a nightmare there sometimes if it is anyway busy. (Dog Track nights)

Have family living in the area and they received a letter from John Cummins stating the concerns that he had been met with at the doors and what he had done to solve them - Road conditions being one of them. Now I' m sure it was more than a help to him with his family situation, but many are glad for these works to be carried out, whoever was responsible.

Oh right. So.. people never raised the issues with John and raised it with someone else, who got them resolved and Johns piggybacking? Or was it said to John and he helped get them sorted?

wfman

with all the candidates now in its always interesting to see who the local bookmakers fancy.

Paige Turner

Sully wrote: »

Oh right. So.. people never raised the issues with John and raised it with someone else, who got them resolved and Johns piggybacking? Or was it said to John and he helped get them sorted?

From reading the letter a few weeks ago, it was put that people had raised the issues with John on the doorstep and he resolved these. I will try get my hands on the letter again, (If it still survives) and get a quick read of it again. But it was the one thing that stuck in my mind out of the letter overall.

Sully

Paige Turner wrote: »

From reading the letter a few weeks ago, it was put that people had raised the issues with John on the doorstep and he resolved these. I will try get my hands on the letter again, (If it still survives) and get a quick read of it again. But it was the one thing that stuck in my mind out of the letter overall.

See someone else registered claiming someone else was told about the problems and resolved it, and John didn't. Its unlikely John would claim he did it if he had no part in it or was not told at the doorstep the problems. I personally that that new user has a hidden motive, but again you never know.

Its also possible a sitting councillor was told, as was John. John got the issues resolved and the sitting councillor was to slow. No idea if thats the case or not.

Paige Turner

I suppose what goes on in the political world we will never truely know though aye? (">) I think I will give the lad a shot this year. Found him to be extremely nice when he called and had a lot of spark under him. Good to see some of them are still eager. Had one or two candidates call personally, not just their campaigners, and they seemed to just want to get rid of the leaflet and go as quickly as possible.

Regarding John, I do agree with others though, it will be a good basis for him for the next elections if he don't get in this time.

Gulamugas

Sully wrote: »

See someone else registered claiming someone else was told about the problems and resolved it, and John didn't. Its unlikely John would claim he did it if he had no part in it or was not told at the doorstep the problems. I personally that that new user has a hidden motive, but again you never know.

Its also possible a sitting councillor was told, as was John. John got the issues resolved and the sitting councillor was to slow. No idea if thats the case or not.

Sully I am sure that John was informed on the doorsteps of the problems and did make representations, but I think that city hall would act faster on reps made by a sitting councillor than an aspiring one. I think John just got lucky and the work was scheduled to be done anyway!

Sully

Gulamugas wrote: »

Sully I am sure that John was informed on the doorsteps of the problems and did make representations, but I think that city hall would act faster on reps made by a sitting councillor than an aspiring one. I think John just got lucky and the work was scheduled to be done anyway!

Its possible that Johns father, Maurice Cummins, raised the issues on Johns behalf since John himself cant make much a difference. Its not a major issue if thats the case, I think residents dont mind as long as the work is done.

nkay1985

wfman wrote: »

with all the candidates now in its always interesting to see who the local bookmakers fancy.

Has anyone seen any of these odds? It'd be very interesting.

Paige Turner

Sully wrote: »

Its possible that Johns father, Maurice Cummins, raised the issues on Johns behalf since John himself cant make much a difference. Its not a major issue if thats the case, I think residents dont mind as long as the work is done.

Sully, i think you have hit the nail on the head - I'm pretty sure too it was a case that his father raised the issue on his behalf, but who doesn't call in help and favours and all that they can around this time aye, and when it delivers results, everyones happy!

wfman

oli dempsey going in ward 1 as an independent.he got 314 last time out.

it looks like RAMASAMY, Senthil has declared in ward 1 and 3.

nutri grain

Oli Dempsey had some very entertaining posters the last time. Wonder will he do the same again?

wfman

nutri grain wrote: »

Oli Dempsey had some very entertaining posters the last time. Wonder will he do the same again?

He's keeping a low profile so far.

jmcc

I realise that the number of votes cast in the poll above is very small but it is quite interesting. If it was to be extrapolated to the electorate, the Greens would have more representation than FF and so would SF and Labour and the Left. The Greens vote is the most curious. While it is obviously benefiting from dumping McCann there is something else at play - the Green vote may be overrepresented in the boards.ie demographic but Waterford East might well be a natural area for the Greens to get a seat. Ordinarily it would be a split between FF and FG with those with a 'social conscience' opting for Labour and a small protest vote going to SF. The Greens, while McCann was their candidate may have been losing that 'social conscience' vote in Waterford East. Now with McCann gone, it is far more acceptable to vote Green. The 2004 vote in Waterford East/Ward 2 had some very interesting transfer patterns last time out.

http://www.electionsireland.org/transfers.cfm?election=2004L&cons=229

Darcy/FG seems to have only scraped in on the fifth count. What did for McCann was the fact that he was transfer repellent. His transfers went to FF, Labour, Independent and to SF but he picked up far too few transfers to be a viable threat to the others. The transfers from the Independents were strange but seemed to be split over FF and FG. This could indicate that Darcy/FG will be in trouble. Things could be about to get very interesting in Waterford East and it could result in the election of Green or SF candidate with FG potentially rotating a seat or losing a seat (to another FGer or Independent FF).

Regards...jmcc

nkay1985

jmcc wrote: »

I realise that the number of votes cast in the poll above is very small but it is quite interesting. If it was to be extrapolated to the electorate, the Greens would have more representation than FF and so would SF and Labour and the Left. The Greens vote is the most curious. While it is obviously benefiting from dumping McCann there is something else at play - the Green vote may be overrepresented in the boards.ie demographic but Waterford East might well be a natural area for the Greens to get a seat. Ordinarily it would be a split between FF and FG with those with a 'social conscience' opting for Labour and a small protest vote going to SF. The Greens, while McCann was their candidate may have been losing that 'social conscience' vote in Waterford East. Now with McCann gone, it is far more acceptable to vote Green. The 2004 vote in Waterford East/Ward 2 had some very interesting transfer patterns last time out.

http://www.electionsireland.org/transfers.cfm?election=2004L&cons=229

Darcy/FG seems to have only scraped in on the fifth count. What did for McCann was the fact that he was transfer repellent. His transfers went to FF, Labour, Independent and to SF but he picked up far too few transfers to be a viable threat to the others. The transfers from the Independents were strange but seemed to be split over FF and FG. This could indicate that Darcy/FG will be in trouble. Things could be about to get very interesting in Waterford East and it could result in the election of Green or SF candidate with FG potentially rotating a seat or losing a seat (to another FGer or Independent FF).

Regards...jmcc

I don't know could you call getting in by 100 votes scraping in, in fairness. With an extra seat going out there and Fine Gael's current popularity, I'd find it surprising for D'Arcy to not hold on.

It's going to be a very interesting ward on Saturday June 6th anyway, and I'll be there watching!

wfman wrote: »

oli dempsey going in ward 1 as an independent.he got 314 last time out.

it looks like RAMASAMY, Senthil has declared in ward 1 and 3.

This seems a strange move from him. He spent a lot of money and didn't really get anywhere (314 is respectable but far too few to be near election). I can't see that he's done anything to boost his profile in the intervening 5 years so I can't see him improving on his vote. Maybe he registered to leave his options open?

And can a candidate run in more than one ward, yeah?

merlante

jmcc wrote: »

I realise that the number of votes cast in the poll above is very small but it is quite interesting. If it was to be extrapolated to the electorate, the Greens would have more representation than FF and so would SF and Labour and the Left. The Greens vote is the most curious. While it is obviously benefiting from dumping McCann there is something else at play - the Green vote may be overrepresented in the boards.ie demographic but Waterford East might well be a natural area for the Greens to get a seat. Ordinarily it would be a split between FF and FG with those with a 'social conscience' opting for Labour and a small protest vote going to SF. The Greens, while McCann was their candidate may have been losing that 'social conscience' vote in Waterford East. Now with McCann gone, it is far more acceptable to vote Green. The 2004 vote in Waterford East/Ward 2 had some very interesting transfer patterns last time out.

http://www.electionsireland.org/transfers.cfm?election=2004L&cons=229

Darcy/FG seems to have only scraped in on the fifth count. What did for McCann was the fact that he was transfer repellent. His transfers went to FF, Labour, Independent and to SF but he picked up far too few transfers to be a viable threat to the others. The transfers from the Independents were strange but seemed to be split over FF and FG. This could indicate that Darcy/FG will be in trouble. Things could be about to get very interesting in Waterford East and it could result in the election of Green or SF candidate with FG potentially rotating a seat or losing a seat (to another FGer or Independent FF).

Regards...jmcc

I thought about this. I think what it means is that 18-35 yr old, tech. savvy users, with an interest in local politics (to read this thread) are quite green in their outlook.

I personally think the Greens could evolve into a major party in Ireland in the wake of the complete destruction of FF in the next general election, as the civil war voter belt gets that much older and the rest of us are sick of the country being run by vintners, farmers and dynasties. Also, I see the far left shrinking over time, particularly SF, and Labour will have to be dynamic to stay relevant.

AdMMM

I thought about this. I think what it means is that 18-35 yr old, tech. savvy users, with an interest in local politics (to read this thread) are quite green in their outlook.

It just means that someone got their friends on to vote for them. The poll isn't big enough to be taken seriously and is too easily manipulated.

merlante

AdMMM wrote: »

It just means that someone got their friends on to vote for them. The poll isn't big enough to be taken seriously and is too easily manipulated.

Who'd bother getting their friends on for a poll like that that means nothing? I wouldn't trust the exact figures, but even with the low number of votes cast, you could certainly say that the green support is much higher than the national average. ...unless people are literally sad enough to get their friends to come on and vote. The votes came over the course of a week so at least there wasn't a sudden jump in one day.

Still, it's just for fun and not to be quoted in scientific journals or anything...

Sully

Bare in mind we have one Green candidate posting who may have cast a vote and that other account that signed up for her. The results are private, even to mods/admins, as its how I set it up. The poll is just how Boards.ie users would vote and god knows how many outsiders voted so there is a good margin of error