Local & European Elections 2009 - Part Two ** New Poll **

Sully

AdMMM wrote: »

And therein lies her problem. The electorate don't know her.

This thread really is getting very cloak and dagger like ala Politics.ie!

Well the candidate in question is already registered, M.RaftisKennedy. There doesnt seem to be a connection between that account and the one posting here.

(M.RaftisKennedy did attempt to post before, but it was removed by an SMod as it was considered election spamming)

Cabaal

BirdIStheWORD wrote: »

Anyway, this is my final post, only joined to give people additional information on Maria.
Not into the boards/forums things, prefer to chat in the "real " world!!
.

We all wish to apologize if you feel that the internet is not a realistic medium for a person to communicate in this day and age, :rolleyes:

Of course luckily the vast majority of people and for that matter governments and politic partys are waking up to the fact that the likes of boards.ie, youtube and twitter does actually matter when it comes to votes these days

If people don't wish to actually communicate via the internet then thats fine but it can cause massive damage to a party if they choose to ignore it and not defend themselfs on it, we've seen this in the past and even present.

baronflyguy

Sully wrote: »

Well the candidate in question is already registered, M.RaftisKennedy. There doesnt seem to be a connection between that account and the one posting here.

(M.RaftisKennedy did attempt to post before, but it was removed by an SMod as it was considered election spamming)

So if someone writes sometime here about a candidate, say for example M.RaftisKennedy since she made an effort to use boards.ie, she or any other candidate can't talk back here. I don't get it?

Everything a candidate says could be considered election spam. I dont know Stan but he seems to be a regualr contributer to boards.ie and he gets across he is a Green and what he believes which I think is great. At least he has a place to communicate.

Cabaal wrote: »

Of course luckily the vast majority of people and for that matter governments and politic partys are waking up to the fact that the likes of boards.ie, youtube and twitter does actually matter when it comes to votes these days

If people don't wish to actually communicate via the internet then thats fine but it can cause massive damage to a party if they choose to ignore it and not defend themselfs on it, we've seen this in the past and even present.

Looks like M.RaftisKennedy tried to use boards.ie as a communication medium but is been denied.

btw, I have no connection to M.RaftisKennedy, just used M.RaftisKennedy since her name was mentioned here already and that a few people have claimed they dont know her but yet when she tried to use boards she was denied.

Cabaal

baronflyguy wrote: »

Looks like M.RaftisKennedy tried to use boards.ie as a communication medium but is been denied.

This is what happens when somebody registers on boards and effectively spams the site which Sully has clearly already outlined.

Doesn't matter if your a minister, a company or an average joe or even a mod like myself if you register on boards.ie and spam it your account will be banned.

Same if you spam on Twitter, Bebo, Youtube etc

Rules are rules and I would think somebody running for council/Gov would appreciate this the most....it doesn't appears so though

Maybe thing think they are above the rules or just don't have time to read them in their busy lives?

Sully

AdMMM wrote: »

Ever notice how it's the things that you're interested in that you take in and digest? I take it you're a member of YFG which means it's only natural for you to have read a lot about various things John may have contributed to the papers. Unfortunately, the majority of the public only really take notice of what's going on politically in the run up to elections. So, short of telling people to dig through their back issues of the Waterford Today and asking them to look for pictures and one line captions squashed in between ads for butchers and gay bars, most won't have the slightest idea of what he has done.

Well in my own experience, people do actually read articles in the paper and remember them. Its one thing that I have learned from working with local papers through my business. The articles in question about John were, IIRC, fairly big articles inclusive of pictures of various events. It wasn't something I was aware of prior to going to print, as I was not a member of YFG and I didn't know anybody connected with him. You don't know the power of articles in the paper, even if they are stuffed between adverts.

This brings me back to my point of people being drawn into this artificial bubble. Of course people aren't going to say anything bad about him - he hasn't done anything of note. Everyone will appreciate and respect new faces coming onto the local political trail, but that doesn't mean they'll vote for him.

He would be known through the school mainly it seems, from talking to people I know. He actually seems to be part of the gossip from some people as they know who his father is, his work in the school and some (not many) recall articles in the paper. Talk about many and not just John of course. When I was doing the Register to Vote campaign in college, a lot of people seemed to know him (I assume they were lecturers).

I assume if your not canvassed by him, he will seem completely out of touch. Its tough for a new candidate as second time around everyone knows him as he ran before. New candidates are relying on their presence on the ground and be known from any past work they may be involved in. Everyone has to start somewhere and I don't think each new candidate has to run twice before ever consider being elected.

Anyway.. I got hold of a canvas leaflet from someone in Templars. Exactly as it appears;

Education
De la Salle, St Stephens
De la Salle College
University of Limerick

Sports
Player with D.L.S.
G.A.A. club where I also coach juvenile teams.

I play soccer with
Hibernian F.C.

Youth Work
Co-ordinator of Sacred Heart Parish Youth Council

Other Interests
I am a member of Waterford International Festival of Light Opera Stage Crew. I have also been involved with many local musical theatre productions.

I have been involved with scouting in Waterford for over ten years

baronflyguy wrote: »

So if someone writes sometime here about a candidate, say for example M.RaftisKennedy since she made an effort to use boards.ie, she or any other candidate can't talk back here. I don't get it?

Everything a candidate says could be considered election spam. I dont know Stan but he seems to be a regualr contributer to boards.ie and he gets across he is a Green and what he believes which I think is great. At least he has a place to communicate.


Looks like M.RaftisKennedy tried to use boards.ie as a communication medium but is been denied.

btw, I have no connection to M.RaftisKennedy, just used M.RaftisKennedy since her name was mentioned here already and that a few people have claimed they dont know her but yet when she tried to use boards she was denied.

From what I can gather, someone using that account name signed up and basically just copied and pasted text from a website/leaflet. No contribution to any topic, not responding to anybody like Stan does. Just came, plugged a load of election stuff and left. The account isn't banned, the topic was just removed by the Smod and she was told to contact the Community Managers/Forum Mods before posting. I don't think she has.

Predictor

Lets not discount anyone from the equation until the votes are cast. I am new to this and have been observing the chat regarding the election for the last while and I couldn't help but post my predictions because I have a keen interest in politics (though not a member of a party.

I am a young voter (27) who lives in Lismore park so I am particularly interested in the battle for ward 3. I posted my predictions of Cullinane, Ryan, Halligan, O'neill and Cummins yesterday. Out of all 10 or 11 candidates I have only had the opportunity of meeting John Cummins at my door and I couldn't have been but impressed by him. It was about 2 weeks ago and his father and Paudie coffey and some woman were with him. He spoke of the need to have new faces on the city council and that a young opinion on matters was vital which I totally agreed with. He is the only person to have knocked on the door, the rest seem to just throw in a leaflet, which is pissing me off as I want to talk to those running.

The major issue in our area is parking with the WIT and it seems that John Cummins has been working closely with Paudie Coffey on this issue as he showed me a letter on the door from the WIT president. To say he doesnt have the support of any large areas like our's is madness, particularly if he is working on this problem because it is number one priority with residents. I will be giving him my no.1 vote and seamus ryan my no.2 and cha o'neill 3 after that I dont know!

Best of luck to all the candidates running, it will certainly be interesting!!

wfman

Partizan wrote: »

I think you will be pleasantly surprised there. Dont write Willie Moore off. He is my tip for the dark horse in this election. He will receive a sizeable proportion of the Workers Party vote from 2004 as all of that will not go to Halligan. He will come in around 450-500 and due to his high profile in Ballybeg and other areas he will pick up trasnfers all over the place. Murphy and O'Neill are in big trouble. Cullinane will top the poll to be followed by Ryan and Halligan who will be a long way ahead of the final 2.

Here's where i'm looking - Quota will be in around 950-1000 marks

Cullinane - 1100 elected on 1st count and goes over quota (surplus goes to Halligan, Moore & Ryan & Fell)
Ryan - 800 elected on 2nd count
Halligan - 700-750 elected on 2nd count

---

big gap back to 450-500 with Moore, Murphy, Cha O'Neill, O'Halloran, Cummins, etc.

another gap back to the 100-200's for Elaine Walsh and Fell.

remember cullinane,halligan and ryan got 55% of the votes last time.with a smaller field running id expect all 3 to have over a 1000 votes.
i cant see moore getting a seat.i know he is well known in ballybeg but i wasnt aware of his high profile in other areas.
if your right and moore does recieve a sizeable proportion of the Workers Party vote from 2004 im sure theres voters that halligan will appeal to now that he isnt in the workers party.
in 2004 the workers party ran 2 candidates.halligan got 1123 and billy mccarthy got 151.is it more a case of personal votes then party votes in local elections?

wfman

Predictor wrote: »

Lets not discount anyone from the equation until the votes are cast. I am new to this and have been observing the chat regarding the election for the last while and I couldn't help but post my predictions because I have a keen interest in politics (though not a member of a party.

I am a young voter (27) who lives in Lismore park so I am particularly interested in the battle for ward 3. I posted my predictions of Cullinane, Ryan, Halligan, O'neill and Cummins yesterday. Out of all 10 or 11 candidates I have only had the opportunity of meeting John Cummins at my door and I couldn't have been but impressed by him. It was about 2 weeks ago and his father and Paudie coffey and some woman were with him. He spoke of the need to have new faces on the city council and that a young opinion on matters was vital which I totally agreed with. He is the only person to have knocked on the door, the rest seem to just throw in a leaflet, which is pissing me off as I want to talk to those running.

The major issue in our area is parking with the WIT and it seems that John Cummins has been working closely with Paudie Coffey on this issue as he showed me a letter on the door from the WIT president. To say he doesnt have the support of any large areas like our's is madness, particularly if he is working on this problem because it is number one priority with residents. I will be giving him my no.1 vote and seamus ryan my no.2 and cha o'neill 3 after that I dont know!

Best of luck to all the candidates running, it will certainly be interesting!!

a meetings took place with the residents of lismore park and surounding area's in the WIT about 2 months ago.it was agreed that the 6 sitting cllr's and members of the residents committee would meet with representives of WIT.WIT as far as i know havent finalised a date for such meeting.all local cllr's in the ward where at the meeting as was paudie coffey.i wasnt aware that john cummins was at the meeting.
id be very interested to know what the letter from the WIT president says?

Predictor

wfman wrote: »

a meetings took place with the residents of lismore park and surounding area's in the WIT about 2 months ago.it was agreed that the 6 sitting cllr's and members of the residents committee would meet with representives of WIT.WIT as far as i know havent finalised a date for such meeting.all local cllr's in the ward where at the meeting as was paudie coffey.i wasnt aware that john cummins was at the meeting.
id be very interested to know what the letter from the WIT president says?

Im not sure if he was at the meeting but he certainly new his stuff talking on the door to me about the issue. I had a quick look at the letter, basicaly it was from Kieran Byrne saying that the WIT were willing to engage in the process of finding a solution which was a huge issue up until now. Kieran Byrne wasnt even at that meeting about the issue the last time!

wfman

Predictor wrote: »

Im not sure if he was at the meeting but he certainly new his stuff talking on the door to me about the issue. I had a quick look at the letter, basicaly it was from Kieran Byrne saying that the WIT were willing to engage in the process of finding a solution which was a huge issue up until now. Kieran Byrne wasnt even at that meeting about the issue the last time!

sounds more like mary o' halloran is been shafted here by her fg friends.in fairness to her she was at the meeting.WIT gave the residents the use of a room for the meeting.the mobility officer for WIT attended the meeting but was unable to answer most questions.
id be delighted to think that kieren byrne is now prepared to meet with the residents and councillor's on this issue.
i look forward to the press release from john cummins any day now.
if he can bring both sides to the table on this issue it will pull some votes for him.

Sully

wfman wrote: »

sounds more like mary o' halloran is been shafted here by her fg friends.in fairness to her she was at the meeting.WIT gave the residents the use of a room for the meeting.the mobility officer for WIT attended the meeting but was unable to answer most questions.
id be delighted to think that kieren byrne is now prepared to meet with the residents and councillor's on this issue.
i look forward to the press release from john cummins any day now.
if he can bring both sides to the table on this issue it will pull some votes for him.

Johns finishing college exams, so would have been unable to attend. For this reason, Paudie would have kept him updated on what happened and as most candidates would do they would make it an issue on the doorsteps. Iv brought it up in the past with him and others in terms of Waterford YFG as the parking is terrible (someone from YFG actually commented on how bad it was when they paid a visit and were genuinely taken aback by how bad it was!) so I know its something he is looking seriously into.

Iv been told that John was responsible for an estate in Waterford getting serious road improvements and layouts addressed after they raised it with him on the door step. I'm not sure what estate.

wfman

Sully wrote: »

Johns finishing college exams, so would have been unable to attend. For this reason, Paudie would have kept him updated on what happened and as most candidates would do they would make it an issue on the doorsteps. Iv brought it up in the past with him and others in terms of Waterford YFG as the parking is terrible (someone from YFG actually commented on how bad it was when they paid a visit and were genuinely taken aback by how bad it was!) so I know its something he is looking seriously into.

Iv been told that John was responsible for an estate in Waterford getting serious road improvements and layouts addressed after they raised it with him on the door step. I'm not sure what estate.

sully i dont think he would of been asked to the meeting.why would paudie have to update him?mary o' halloran a sitting councillor for fg in that ward was at the meeting.is there a split in fg or something?

jmcc

If those voting trends in the poll above hold up across Waterford, there will be some big changes. Though I don't think it is possible to extrapolate 44 votes to the entire Waterford electorate.

Regards...jmcc

Sully

wfman wrote: »

sully i dont think he would of been asked to the meeting.why would paudie have to update him?mary o' halloran a sitting councillor for fg in that ward was at the meeting.is there a split in fg or something?

Couldnt tell you if he was invited, probably not as Mary is the sitting councillor. Paudie would keep him updated because John is running in that ward and would be quizzed about it on the door step. Obviously Paudie is going to help all FG candidates in the various wards. No split at all, thats just normal

wfman

Sully wrote: »

Couldnt tell you if he was invited, probably not as Mary is the sitting councillor. Paudie would keep him updated because John is running in that ward and would be quizzed about it on the door step. Obviously Paudie is going to help all FG candidates in the various wards. No split at all, thats just normal

im sure they asked for the number 2 for mary before they left the door:)

Sully

wfman wrote: »

im sure they asked for the number 2 for mary before they left the door:)

Its on the canvass material and posters I believe.

Mickdots

wfman wrote: »

a meetings took place with the residents of lismore park and surounding area's in the WIT about 2 months ago.it was agreed that the 6 sitting cllr's and members of the residents committee would meet with representives of WIT.WIT as far as i know havent finalised a date for such meeting.all local cllr's in the ward where at the meeting as was paudie coffey.i wasnt aware that john cummins was at the meeting.
id be very interested to know what the letter from the WIT president says?

Yes this meeting did occur, the meeting itself was a very heated one. Representivies where there from most political party's. There was a very heated end to the meeting when John Halligan attacked the W.I.T representive accusing him as been a puppet of Kieran Byrne and stated that the residents were entitled to solve this problem with Kieran Byrne and not one of his puppets who had no power to make a decision in the matter!! i can tell ya the meeting ended fairly swiftly after that!!!

Partizan

wfman wrote: »

remember cullinane,halligan and ryan got 55% of the votes last time.with a smaller field running id expect all 3 to have over a 1000 votes.
i cant see moore getting a seat.i know he is well known in ballybeg but i wasnt aware of his high profile in other areas.
if your right and moore does recieve a sizeable proportion of the Workers Party vote from 2004 im sure theres voters that halligan will appeal to now that he isnt in the workers party.
in 2004 the workers party ran 2 candidates.halligan got 1123 and billy mccarthy got 151.is it more a case of personal votes then party votes in local elections?

You seem to forget that since 1974, the WP vote in Ward 3 has been solid, even after the split with DL in 1992 and at the last General Election in 2002 & 2007 where John Halligan received a significant proportion of his 1st preferences. This time round Halligan is not in WP and no doubt this will effect his vote as a significant proportion of the WP vote will not carry with him. He will get 60-65% of it no doubt and a personal vote for his work as well. Moore will get the remainder of the vote on top of a personal vote as he is well known in the area for many years as a community activist. Moore will come in around 500-550 and will pick up transfers from all over. Thats why i'm tipping him to get in and not Murphy. Murphy will be handicapped by the anti-government backlash and his votes along with those from Elaine Walsh will not carry him over the line. The FF votes in Ward 3 will not transfer to him but will go everywhere.

Cha O'Neill from what I have been hearing is in big trouble as well. The big winners from this will be FG, Independents, SF and the WP who will ride the crest of anti FF sentiment and rightly so.

merlante

The big question for me is, will FF increase their number of seats on the council or disappear? Where will FF get seats?

Partizan

merlante wrote: »

The big question for me is, will FF increase their number of seats on the council or disappear? Where will FF get seats?

FF will not be wiped out in Waterford. Murphy will lose his seat but I'm tipping O'Neill to win a seat for FF in Ward 2.

Gulamugas

Surely Keating must have a reasonable chance in East

wfman

Partizan wrote: »

You seem to forget that since 1974, the WP vote in Ward 3 has been solid, even after the split with DL in 1992 and at the last General Election in 2002 & 2007 where John Halligan received a significant proportion of his 1st preferences. This time round Halligan is not in WP and no doubt this will effect his vote as a significant proportion of the WP vote will not carry with him. He will get 60-65% of it no doubt and a personal vote for his work as well. Moore will get the remainder of the vote on top of a personal vote as he is well known in the area for many years as a community activist. Moore will come in around 500-550 and will pick up transfers from all over. Thats why i'm tipping him to get in and not Murphy. Murphy will be handicapped by the anti-government backlash and his votes along with those from Elaine Walsh will not carry him over the line. The FF votes in Ward 3 will not transfer to him but will go everywhere.

Cha O'Neill from what I have been hearing is in big trouble as well. The big winners from this will be FG, Independents, SF and the WP who will ride the crest of anti FF sentiment and rightly so.

i agree with you that cha o neill and tom murphy are in trouble. but i believe it will be the transfer of moores vote that will elect cha.
the workers party has had some great candidates over the years martin o regan and paddy gallagher to name 2 but what you seem to forget is that the workers party north and south of the border has only one representitive and thats davy walsh in ward 1.i think the best result the wp could hope for is davy walsh to hold his seat in waterford.

Partizan

wfman wrote: »

i agree with you that cha o neill and tom murphy are in trouble. but i believe it will be the transfer of moores vote that will elect cha.
the workers party has had some great candidates over the years martin o regan and paddy gallagher to name 2 but what you seem to forget is that the workers party north and south of the border has only one representitive and thats davy walsh in ward 1.i think the best result the wp could hope for is davy walsh to hold his seat in waterford.

WP could very well have 3 more come June 6th. Both Jackie Connolly in Cork North Central and Ted Tynan in Cork NW are strongly tipped to win (thats from local media in Cork and other political parties campaigning on the ground)and dont write off Moore. He will sneak it. Walsh is under intense pressure to hold his seat in Ward 1 but i think he will make it.

WP may have just 1 representative now but that doesnt mean they can pick up additional seats at the locals. The mood is very much in the WP favour. There is a solid WP vote in Ward 3 for Moore which wont all go to Halligan as many are predicting. I think you will be pleasantly surprised come June 6.

Sully

List updated.. Added candidate to Ward 3

nkay1985

I hoep you're right about Moore, Partizan, but I can't help but think that you're looking at it with rose-tinted glasses a bit.

I think the big thing to consider is how much of Halligan's 1100 votes last time out was a WP vote and how much was a John Halligan vote. Sad as it is to see, the WP have been declining in a big way all over the country and for that reason, I don't think that much of his vote could be considered a WP vote.

My guess would be that Moore will come in at about 350-400. And the effect of him taking the WP vote from Halligan is that Halligan won't have that much of a surplus to transfer, so he won't get much there. He'll get an average slice of Cullinane's and Ryan's surplus, but not more than independents and the like. And it'll be the same for the few eliminated before him. I think he just won't have enough first preferences to keep him in the race long enough.

I hope I'm reading it wrong but I just can't see two sitting councillors unseated only for a WP candidate to take a seat, which would effectively be two seats for their vote out there! It just can't happen.

Do you think that Davy will hold on in Ward 1?

Sully

TNS/MRBI Poll 15.05.09
FG 38% (+6)
FF 21% (-1)
LAB 20% (-4)
SF 9% (nc)
GRN 3% (-1)
OTH 9%

Government Satisfaction 10% (-4).

wfman

wont be much surplus this time with one seat gone the qouta will be at least a 1000.(if the turnout is the same)if the turnout is higher that figure will increase.with 6 seats last time qouta was only 860.

nkay1985

Sully wrote: »

TNS/MRBI Poll 15.05.09
FG 38% (+6)
FF 21% (-1)
LAB 20% (-4)
SF 9% (nc)
GRN 3% (-1)
OTH 9%

Government Satisfaction 10% (-4).

Heard this on the news on the way to work. I'm surprised at that Labour figure. That's a huge drop. I wonder which is false; the high of the last poll of the low of this one?

The Greens' credibility is obviously shot with the voters as is evidenced once again here. And Fianna Fail at 21% is unbelieveable under normal circumstances!

Looking very good for Fine Gael, although they had a very good Local Elections last time out while FF had a very poor one. I wonder does this mean that there won't be massive gains for FG and massive losses for FF as everyone thinks there will be due to public opinion.

But these polls are obviously much more important for General elections and, looking at the results, it's difficult to see anything other than a FG-Labour government next time out.

nkay1985

wfman wrote: »

wont be much surplus this time with one seat gone the qouta will be at least a 1000.(if the turnout is the same)if the turnout is higher that figure will increase.with 6 seats last time qouta was only 860.

Yeah, you're right. Completely forgot about that aspect. That's even worse news for Moore.

wfman

nkay1985 wrote: »

Yeah, you're right. Completely forgot about that aspect. That's even worse news for Moore.

the workers party have run 2 and candidates in ward 3 before.im sure if john halligan was still in the workers party moore would be running anyway.
in 2004 halligan had billy mcarthy running with him who got 150 votes.