Local & European Elections 2009 - Part Two ** New Poll **

jmcc

Would it be possible that Waterford City will not elect any FF councillors this time around?

Regards...jmcc

dlofnep

What's everybody's feelings on electing a councillor for their community work, rather than the party they represent? Obviously voting reflects this - but does anyone practice it?

Gael23

What are Jacqueline kelly's chances of gaining a seat for FG in the east? Im canvassing with her and the response seems good. Also with John Cummins, again good response, people like the fact that hes a new young face.

AdMMM

jmcc wrote: »

Would it be possible that Waterford City will not elect any FF councillors this time around?

Regards...jmcc

I'd give you 3/2 on it

AdMMM

Im canvassing with her and the response seems good. Also with John Cummins, again good response, people like the fact that hes a new young face.

Canvassing can be one of the most deceiving activities that you can get involved with in politics. It's all too easy to enter this artificial bubble based on the "feedback" you receive at the doors. My experience at the doors has always been overwhelmingly positive and not once did I ever receive any abuse yet the candidate I was supporting still didn't get elected.

Just because people don't abuse you doesn't mean they'll vote for you or the candidate. They may not have any reason to lie, but they will. They might just be nice people who don't want to offend you or they might just want to waste your time and limit the amount of houses you can get to that night.

In the case of John Cummins, people may very well like him because he's a new face in politics but if we take a step back from that, ANY new face in politics is welcome. It doesn't mean people will vote for him though. Also, with respect, John hasn't exactly done anything in Waterford that would warrant a negative attitude. If I stood for election I'd imagine most of the people would respect me for getting involved so young and wish me the best but I still wouldn't get elected.

As for Jacqueline Kelly, the extra seat in her ward will make it seem like it's an easier task but I really don't fancy her chances given the dog fight it will be between all the new candidates for that extra seat. I think it's more likely that someone like Michael Ivory will be in the thick of it trying to fight off a barrage of Fianna Fail transfers in the closing counts!

dlofnep

What has John done in waterford out of curiosity? I've seen his posters, but I have never heard of him prior to that.

nkay1985

dlofnep wrote: »

What has John done in waterford out of curiosity? I've seen his posters, but I have never heard of him prior to that.

In fairness to him, he's been steadily increasing his profile through newspaper contributions and that. It seems like he is Young Fine Gael in Waterford.

But I'm with AdMMM on this one. There are too many factors working against him here. He's too low-profile and doesn't have any of the big areas like Ballybeg, Lisduggan or Larchville behind him. People really shouldn't underestimate the importance of this. If there was a 6th seat, I'd see either him or Mary O'Halloran getting in no problem. Could never see the two of them there though. And I think they may just have split their vote in half by running him.

The FF backlash won't hit Tom Murphy too much because he barely associates himself with them. Out in Ballybeg, he's just Tom. He has a really big support base and I can't see them turning away from him in their masses.

I see Cullinane, Ryan and Halligan very close to each other and very far ahead of everyone else. Murphy will get in. Cha might find himself in trouble though. His independent vote might not be as strong as last time out, with Donie Fell and Willie Moore coming into the equation. I still think he'll be ok and that Mary O'Halloran will lose out.

The last seat will be decided by the order in which the candidates get eliminated though. I don't expect anyone to have a clear lead coming into the last stages.

nkay1985

wfman wrote: »

Brennan, Warren - The Green Party is also running.

Anybody have any information on this person? Stan?

wfman

2004 results.6 seats
john halligan 1123.
david cullinane 1109
seamus ryan 1051
tom murphy 721
cha o neill 577
marry o halloran 398

AdMMM

wfman wrote: »

2004 result
John Halligan 1,123 18.65% 1.30 1 Made Quota 1

David Cullinane 1,109 18.42% 1.29 1 Made Quota 2 *


Seamus Ryan 1,051 17.46% 1.22 1 Made Quota 3 *


Tom Murphy1 721 11.97% 0.84 6 Made Quota 4 *


Cha O'Neill2 577 9.58% 0.67 8 Made Quota

5 ¶ Mary O'Halloran 398 6.61% 0.46 10 Elected


6 Catherine Kinsella
199 3.31% 0.23 (10) Not Elected ¶


Billy McCarthy 151 2.51% 0.18 (9) Eliminated


Seamus O'Connell 283 4.70% 0.33 (7) Eliminated


Jim Boland 187 3.11% 0.22 (6) Eliminated


Padraig O Griofa 170 2.82% 0.20 (5) No expenses


Roy Hassey 52 0.86% 0.06 (4) No expenses

Tidied that up a bit for you

nkay1985

wfman wrote: »

2004 result
John Halligan 1,123 18.65% 1.30 1 Made Quota 1 David Cullinane 1,109 18.42% 1.29 1 Made Quota 2 * Seamus Ryan 1,051 17.46% 1.22 1 Made Quota 3 * Tom Murphy1 721 11.97% 0.84 6 Made Quota 4 * Cha O'Neill2 577 9.58% 0.67 8 Made Quota 5 ¶ Mary O'Halloran 398 6.61% 0.46 10 Elected 6 Catherine Kinsella 199 3.31% 0.23 (10) Not Elected ¶ Billy McCarthy 151 2.51% 0.18 (9) Eliminated Seamus O'Connell 283 4.70% 0.33 (7) Eliminated Jim Boland 187 3.11% 0.22 (6) Eliminated Padraig O Griofa 170 2.82% 0.20 (5) No expenses Roy Hassey 52 0.86% 0.06 (4) No expenses

I think my eyes have just died a little.

Link is easier, I think.

dlofnep

nkay1985 wrote: »

In fairness to him, he's been steadily increasing his profile through newspaper contributions and that. It seems like he is Young Fine Gael in Waterford.

Well, anyone can write into a paper, it's not reflective of the work. I'm not saying that he isn't doing anything - I've just genuinely not heard of him outside of this election, so I'm curious as to why someone should vote for him. I'm all for young candidates in Waterford - not that I'd vote for Fine Gael itself, but more power to the lad.

wfman

if cha o neill can even hold that vote he should be ok.mary o halloran was a first time candidate and has been a mayor since so surely her vote will increase.murphy will have to drop votes.he might be trying to put distance between himself and the ff party but the ff logo will be beside his name on the voting paper.
john cummins will get a lower vote then o'halloran.

nkay1985

dlofnep wrote: »

Well, anyone can write into a paper, it's not reflective of the work. I'm not saying that he isn't doing anything - I've just genuinely not heard of him outside of this election, so I'm curious as to why someone should vote for him. I'm all for young candidates in Waterford - not that I'd vote for Fine Gael itself, but more power to the lad.

Oh yeah I completely see where you're coming from. Most new candidates have a track record of some sort; Dick Roche with his union work, Willie Moore with his community work etc etc. He's effectively standing on the basis of what he will do if elected, not on his body of work to date. Being young isn't enough! I don't think he'll get in anyway and will probably use this as a springboard for next time out.

Actually that Raftis-Kennedy person seems much the same. I went onto the Green Party's website and found her profile. The only sentence that describes any work she's done is "I have been actively involved within the community for many years." How ridiculous is that!

wfman

dlofnep wrote: »

Well, anyone can write into a paper, it's not reflective of the work. I'm not saying that he isn't doing anything - I've just genuinely not heard of him outside of this election, so I'm curious as to why someone should vote for him. I'm all for young candidates in Waterford - not that I'd vote for Fine Gael itself, but more power to the lad.

i think he will get a very respectable vote.if he keeps at it im sure he's one for the future but i dont think older voters will trust him with the no. 1 vote.

nkay1985

wfman wrote: »

if cha o neill can even hold that vote he should be ok.mary o halloran was a first time candidate and has been a mayor since so surely her vote will increase.murphy will have to drop votes.he might be trying to put distance between himself and the ff party but the ff logo will be beside his name on the voting paper.
john cummins will get a lower vote then o'halloran.

I agree on both counts but Tom was 250 votes clear of her by the end of the count last time out. I just can't see this difference being made up.

wfman

nkay1985 wrote: »

I agree on both counts but Tom was 250 votes clear of her by the end of the count last time out. I just can't see this difference being made up.

i dont think it has to be made up.murphys vote will drop.last seat will be between cha and murphy.
with cullinane -halligan and ryan elected the elimination of moore and his transfers will decide the seat.i think cha would benefit more then murphy from moores transfers.

Sully

dlofnep wrote: »

Well, anyone can write into a paper, it's not reflective of the work. I'm not saying that he isn't doing anything - I've just genuinely not heard of him outside of this election, so I'm curious as to why someone should vote for him. I'm all for young candidates in Waterford - not that I'd vote for Fine Gael itself, but more power to the lad.

Prior to the election, John has been very actively involved in Waterford's YFG branch and this has been reported in local paper. The paper has covered various things he, as chairman, has done and campaigns he was involved in etc. Anybody who is on the committee or is a member of the Waterford YFG branch would consider him very hard working and committed to getting the job done.

I have heard nothing but good words prior about him even being selected as a candidate. He seemed to have a lot of potential and small work in local politics done. As you know, his father is a Senator so you could say its in the blood (like father like son sometimes!). Plus, he was a teacher for a while in one of the local schools from what some parents are telling me and they have nothing but good things to say about him.

When I heard he was running I wasnt surprised after hearing and reading so much about the chap. A new face, from a popular party and wanting to bring in change. Coming from a popular political family he faces tough opposition but some of the opposition will find it tough to run against him also id imagine.

The stuff we read in the paper now is more in the spotlight because its under the political heading. Its his views, his opinion and his ideas. Doing the same just like everyone else. But he was in the press well before he ran for election or was selected. So that might cover that point?

Moving all that aside - how exactly is a new candidate supposed to get selected? Most people start politics a fresh or have family in politics to help them. I know a lot of the seats are re-runs so people are comfortable voting the same group in. New candidates always find it tough, especially if they are completely starting a fresh. Difference with John is he has a little advantage.

dlofnep

Well, best of luck to him.

Sully

dlofnep wrote: »

What's everybody's feelings on electing a councillor for their community work, rather than the party they represent? Obviously voting reflects this - but does anyone practice it?

I think its hard to explain how it works. The local elections are very like the general - people are custom to a particular group but are more flexible rather then blind voting. People have their party they vote for and will consider more so that party candidate as its a party they know and trust. Wheras voting for another party when you dont like their overall policy and such a candidate does can be tough. I believe that people will consider their main party candidates first only, but may vote elsewhere if they feel that locally they offer little. More so to Independent rather then cross party.

The locals give a boost to the partys of how well people like them or dislike as the case may be. So this time around its more obvious that FF have lost support nationally, so people are hardly going to vote someone who is a supporter of that party. Its sending a clear signal there not happy.

In the general, people will only vote for the core party as they believe in them. Locally, it will be the first point of reference when selecting a candidate but not the last. Party will always play a factor, sometimes a big one and sometimes a small one. So many factors will change that.

Sully

dlofnep wrote: »

Well, best of luck to him.

Its tough for a new candidate in a competitive ward, but even if he does loose, its a spring for the next election and I think it wont be as hard. Sometimes its good to bring in new change, fresh blood and new young energy into the council - so people might take that into consideration and give him a vote. I doubt he is selling himself as just being "young". Im sure the canvassing material describes him and from what I am told - he is well know in many estates through the school and possibly even small articles during his YFG days and the reaction was good.

(and hes FG, so if FF get the planned backlash and more people vote FG as expected that might very well do him a favour - possibly gaining an extra seat rather then pushing out the other)

nkay1985

wfman wrote: »

i dont think it has to be made up.murphys vote will drop.last seat will be between cha and murphy.
with cullinane -halligan and ryan elected the elimination of moore and his transfers will decide the seat.i think cha would benefit more then murphy from moores transfers.

So you honestly think that there will be a difference of 250 votes on last time out between Mary O'Halloran's vote increasing and Murphy's vote decreasing? That's a big shift in fairness. Can't see it happening.

dlofnep wrote: »

What's everybody's feelings on electing a councillor for their community work, rather than the party they represent? Obviously voting reflects this - but does anyone practice it?

It's said that people vote party nationally and person locally. While there is certainly an element of this, I don't think it's enormous. The obvious manifestation is independents getting elected locally, where they're rarely elected nationally.

I think Sully's right in saying that someone generally won't vote for a different partry just because of the candidate.

Sully wrote: »

Moving all that aside - how exactly is a new candidate supposed to get selected? Most people start politics a fresh or have family in politics to help them. I know a lot of the seats are re-runs so people are comfortable voting the same group in. New candidates always find it tough, especially if they are completely starting a fresh. Difference with John is he has a little advantage.

That's a good post about John, Sully. I'll just take up this last bit.

New candidates generally have a body of work in the community behind them. They're generally known for something. It's usually sports clubs, residents' associations, community groups etc.

The exception to this is young candidates. It's through no fault of their own that they don't have this background; they simply haven't been around long enough.

So I think your question needs not to be "how exactly is a new candidate supposed to get selected?", but "how exactly is a new, young candidate supposed to get selected?".

The answer to this is that they usually aren't. They stand once, then use the time before the next election to do work in the area.

AdMMM

Prior to the election, John has been very actively involved in Waterford's YFG branch and this has been reported in local paper. The paper has covered various things he, as chairman, has done and campaigns he was involved in etc. Anybody who is on the committee or is a member of the Waterford YFG branch would consider him very hard working and committed to getting the job done.

Ever notice how it's the things that you're interested in that you take in and digest? I take it you're a member of YFG which means it's only natural for you to have read a lot about various things John may have contributed to the papers. Unfortunately, the majority of the public only really take notice of what's going on politically in the run up to elections. So, short of telling people to dig through their back issues of the Waterford Today and asking them to look for pictures and one line captions squashed in between ads for butchers and gay bars, most won't have the slightest idea of what he has done.

I have heard nothing but good words prior about him even being selected as a candidate. He seemed to have a lot of potential and small work in local politics done. As you know, his father is a Senator so you could say its in the blood (like father like son sometimes!). Plus, he was a teacher for a while in one of the local schools from what some parents are telling me and they have nothing but good things to say about him.

This brings me back to my point of people being drawn into this artificial bubble. Of course people aren't going to say anything bad about him - he hasn't done anything of note. Everyone will appreciate and respect new faces coming onto the local political trail, but that doesn't mean they'll vote for him.

When I heard he was running I wasnt surprised after hearing and reading so much about the chap. A new face, from a popular party and wanting to bring in change. Coming from a popular political family he faces tough opposition but some of the opposition will find it tough to run against him also id imagine.

You could even throw Felix the Cat into an election in a ward which has one less seat than before and more candidates and it would put the cat amongst the pigeons, so to speak. But seeing as you raise the point, the only people who will find it hard to run against him will be those who are at risk of losing a seat i.e. his running mate, Mary O'Halloran.

The stuff we read in the paper now is more in the spotlight because its under the political heading. Its his views, his opinion and his ideas. Doing the same just like everyone else. But he was in the press well before he ran for election or was selected. So that might cover that point

Going back to my first point, the vast majority of people wouldn't be able to recall those articles. They'll be paying attention now though.

Moving all that aside - how exactly is a new candidate supposed to get selected? Most people start politics a fresh or have family in politics to help them.

So apart from getting into politics afresh or having family in politics, what other ways are there of getting into it??

I know a lot of the seats are re-runs so people are comfortable voting the same group in. New candidates always find it tough, especially if they are completely starting a fresh. Difference with John is he has a little advantage.

It's all about timing when it comes to new candidates. As you pointed out, John has plenty going for him and I have no doubt that he'll be a force in the future, but his timing is a bit off this time around. He's running in a year that has seen his ward reduced in size and his main competitor will be his running mate which I know has caused some ill-feeling within FG in Waterford. Everyone knows that the Councillors will be under a lot of pressure this term to balance the budget deficit and tackle the many economic issues and most will be comfortable to vote in people who have experience in this area rather than someone who may have saved three penalties in an U16 match with Hibs back in 2004.

I agree with everything you say about this being a springboard for him. I find it hard to believe that there's people who interpret this as anything else though - a trial by fire election to build a profile for him in future. I cannot realistically see any possibility of him being elected this time around and am quite put off by those who have posted elsewhere that they believe he'll help FG gain a seat!

BirdIStheWORD

Actually that Raftis-Kennedy person seems much the same. I went onto the Green Party's website and found her profile. The only sentence that describes any work she's done is "I have been actively involved within the community for many years." How ridiculous is that![/quote]


Additional Information

Maria has worked in the health sector and went back to WIT as a mature student to gain a Bsc(hons) Degree in General Nursing and has at present put her degree on pause.
She has worked at Waterford Regional Hospital, Wexford General Hospital during clinical placements, she also worked in a private nursing home facility in the City and worked in the Sacred Heart Centre in Lady Lane. Maria's Husband Colin is a member of Waterford City Fire Service for the last 28 years.
Maria grew up in Sandymount, Dublin, until 1985, then moved to the Midlands until 1991, moved back to Dublin for a brief period then moved to Waterford City in February 1993. Maria is very much an adopted citizen of Waterford City.
Maria's parents in law live at the Waterside, has a brother in law working in Land registry and a sister in law who is back at the WIT gaining a Masters in Social Studies and works locally.

Maria has helped loads of people in a private capicity for years who are all from Waterford City, SHE JUST DIDN'T GO ABOUT PUBLICIZING it to the nation.....She is a first time candidate, didn't see you sending her an email, her address you can get from the Green Party website and asking what she does before making stupid assumptions!!!

Sully

BirdIStheWORD wrote: »

Actually that Raftis-Kennedy person seems much the same. I went onto the Green Party's website and found her profile. The only sentence that describes any work she's done is "I have been actively involved within the community for many years." How ridiculous is that!

Additional Information

Maria has worked in the health sector and went back to WIT as a mature student to gain a Bsc(hons) Degree in General Nursing and has at present put her degree on pause.
She has worked at Waterford Regional Hospital, Wexford General Hospital during clinical placements, she also worked in a private nursing home facility in the City and worked in the Sacred Heart Centre in Lady Lane. Maria's Husband Colin is a member of Waterford City Fire Service for the last 28 years.
Maria grew up in Sandymount, Dublin, until 1985, then moved to the Midlands until 1991, moved back to Dublin for a brief period then moved to Waterford City in February 1993. Maria is very much an adopted citizen of Waterford City.
Maria's parents in law live at the Waterside, has a brother in law working in Land registry and a sister in law who is back at the WIT gaining a Masters in Social Studies and works locally.

Maria has helped loads of people in a private capicity for years who are all from Waterford City, SHE JUST DIDN'T GO ABOUT PUBLICIZING it to the nation.....She is a first time candidate, didn't see you sending her an email, her address you can get from the Green Party website and asking what she does before making stupid assumptions!!!

Where you getting that information from?

nkay1985

BirdIStheWORD wrote: »

Additional Information

Maria has worked in the health sector and went back to WIT as a mature student to gain a Bsc(hons) Degree in General Nursing and has at present put her degree on pause.
She has worked at Waterford Regional Hospital, Wexford General Hospital during clinical placements, she also worked in a private nursing home facility in the City and worked in the Sacred Heart Centre in Lady Lane. Maria's Husband Colin is a member of Waterford City Fire Service for the last 28 years.
Maria grew up in Sandymount, Dublin, until 1985, then moved to the Midlands until 1991, moved back to Dublin for a brief period then moved to Waterford City in February 1993. Maria is very much an adopted citizen of Waterford City.
Maria's parents in law live at the Waterside, has a brother in law working in Land registry and a sister in law who is back at the WIT gaining a Masters in Social Studies and works locally.

Maria has helped loads of people in a private capicity for years who are all from Waterford City, SHE JUST DIDN'T GO ABOUT PUBLICIZING it to the nation.....She is a first time candidate, didn't see you sending her an email, her address you can get from the Green Party website and asking what she does before making stupid assumptions!!!

I'm sorry now but none of that tells us anything about the woman. It proves that she has worked in hospitals and that she has family in the area. But the only sentence in your whole post about work she's done is that she's helped loads of people in a private capacity. I'm sorry but that sentence is the definition of vague. What groups has she worked with? What work has she done for her area? Etc etc etc.
I've not seen her election material so perhaps she's a bit clearer there.

And with regard to not publicising work that she has done. I'm sorry but politics is a PR game. It's great if someone does great work. There are hundreds of people doing that quietly in the city for many years. But if you have any political ambition, you've got to let people know that you've done it!

Do you honestly think the onus should be on the electorate to find out about a candidate? If you do, you are sorely mistaken.

And I think you've misunderstood me. I have no problem with her. How can I when I know nothing about her!

BirdIStheWORD

Where you getting that information from?

I know her, that is where I got the information from......


Anyway, this is my final post, only joined to give people additional information on Maria.
Not into the boards/forums things, prefer to chat in the "real " world!!

Good luck to everyone with the elections, and to those voting choose your candidate wisely....

Slan Anois.

AdMMM

Not rocket science when I know her!!! That is where I got the information from......

And therein lies her problem. The electorate don't know her.

This thread really is getting very cloak and dagger like ala Politics.ie!

nkay1985

AdMMM wrote: »

And therein lies her problem. The electorate don't know her.

This thread really is getting very cloak and dagger like ala Politics.ie!

Yeah it is weird for someone to come on and post twice purely with the agenda of promoting a candidate and leave! Doesn't feel right.

Partizan

wfman wrote: »

i dont think it has to be made up.murphys vote will drop.last seat will be between cha and murphy.
with cullinane -halligan and ryan elected the elimination of moore and his transfers will decide the seat.i think cha would benefit more then murphy from moores transfers.

I think you will be pleasantly surprised there. Dont write Willie Moore off. He is my tip for the dark horse in this election. He will receive a sizeable proportion of the Workers Party vote from 2004 as all of that will not go to Halligan. He will come in around 450-500 and due to his high profile in Ballybeg and other areas he will pick up trasnfers all over the place. Murphy and O'Neill are in big trouble. Cullinane will top the poll to be followed by Ryan and Halligan who will be a long way ahead of the final 2.

Here's where i'm looking - Quota will be in around 950-1000 marks

Cullinane - 1100 elected on 1st count and goes over quota (surplus goes to Halligan, Moore & Ryan & Fell)
Ryan - 800 elected on 2nd count
Halligan - 700-750 elected on 2nd count

---

big gap back to 450-500 with Moore, Murphy, Cha O'Neill, O'Halloran, Cummins, etc.

another gap back to the 100-200's for Elaine Walsh and Fell.