Local & European Elections 2009 - Part Two ** New Poll **

Sully

Following on from Local Elections 2009 - Part 1 we have a new poll since things have changed a little locally since the last election. Plus, the last topic never covered European.

Plenty of new candidates after stepping into the race!

Candidate List
North - Ward 1
Dunne, Liam - Fianna Fáil
Hayes, Pat - The Labour Party
Kelly, Joe - Sinn Féin
Quinlan, Hillary - Fine Gael
Ryan, Gearoid - Fianna Fáil
Walsh, Davy - The Workers' Party
Roche, Dick - Independent
Dempsey, Oli - Independent.
Senthil, Ramasamy - Independent.

South - Ward 3
Cullinane, David - Sinn Féin
Cummins, John - Fine Gael
Moore, Willie - The Workers' Party
Murphy, Tom - Fianna Fáil
O'Halloran, Mary - Fine Gael
Ryan, Seamus - The Labour Party
Walsh, Elaine - Fianna Fáil
Halligan, John - Independent
Fell, Donie - People Before Profit
Oneill, Cha - Independent
Ramasamy, Senthil - Independent

East - Ward 2
Ahmed, Sheikh M. - Independent
Cunningham, Tom - Fine Gael
D'Arcy, Jim - Fine Gael
Hayes, Bill - Sinn Féin
Keating, Stephanie - Fianna Fáil
Kelly, Jacqueline - Fine Gael
O'Neill, Catherine - Fianna Fáil
Ormond, Pat - Fianna Fáil
Tobin, Joe - The Workers' Party
Walsh, Jack - The Labour Party
Wyse, Gary - Fianna Fáil
Roche, Mary - Independent
Kennedy, Mary Raftis - The Green Party
Daniels, Davy - Independent
Ivory, Michael - michael
(Let me know the updates to this list please)

dlofnep

Sinn Féin for me. What a surprise

Sully

Iv added a list of candidates which is not great, so id appreciate someone could let me know whos not there and who shouldnt be there.

dlofnep

Pat Fitzgerald is running for Dunmore for Sinn Féin and Declan Clune is running for Tramore for Sinn Féin. Or is it just city?

dlofnep

Also, John Halligan is running as an independant this time around. (Think ward 3)

Sully

Just city. Any changes to PM please to keep the thread flowing (let me know the ward also)

nkay1985

Well, with the PDs disbanding, I guess it'll have to be Sinn Fein for me



PM sent with all the candidates I can think of.

wfman

can we have a go at predictions per ward here or maybe in a new thread.north - 4 seats.south -5 seats and east has 6 seats.

jmcc

wfman wrote: »

can we have a go at predictions per ward here or maybe in a new thread.north - 4 seats.south -5 seats and east has 6 seats.

Prediction: East
Cunningham, Tom - Fine Gael
Daniels, Davy - Independent
D'Arcy, Jim - Fine Gael
Walsh, Jack - The Labour Party
Roche, Mary - Independent

Kennedy, Mary Raftis - The Green Party
or
Keating, Stephanie - Fianna Fáil

Regards...jmcc

wfman

jmcc wrote: »

Prediction: East
Cunningham, Tom - Fine Gael
Daniels, Davy - Independent
D'Arcy, Jim - Fine Gael
Walsh, Jack - The Labour Party
Roche, Mary - Independent

Kennedy, Mary Raftis - The Green Party
or
Keating, Stephanie - Fianna Fáil

Regards...jmcc

no or's jmcc go on call the last seat!

wfman

north
Quinlan, Hillary fg
Hayes, Pat lab
kelly, joe sf
roche, dick ind

---

south
halligan, john ind
ryan, Seamus lab
Cullinane, David sf
o'neill, cha ind
o'halloran, mary fg

---

east
Daniels, Davy ind
Walsh, Jack lab
roche, mary ind
Cunningham, Tom Fg
D'Arcy, Jim Fg
Kennedy, Mary Raftis gp

nkay1985

jmcc wrote: »

Prediction: East
Cunningham, Tom - Fine Gael
Daniels, Davy - Independent
D'Arcy, Jim - Fine Gael
Walsh, Jack - The Labour Party
Roche, Mary - Independent

Kennedy, Mary Raftis - The Green Party
or
Keating, Stephanie - Fianna Fáil

Regards...jmcc

I'd say you're right about all sitting councillors retaining their seats.

I can't see the Green candidate taking the new seat. Say what you will about McCAnn but 5 years ago, he had a decent profile. I've never heard of this Raftis Kennedy person. Couple this with the fact that the Greens have been poor in Government in most people's opinion and I just can't see her taking it.

I agree that the next seat is probably Fianna Fail. Well it would be under normal circumstances, as Michael Ivory showed last time. But lots of factors will work against them this time out.
The current public opinion is one. The fact that they're running four candidates (insanity!) is another. The fact that Ivory is running as an independent is another. A reduced Fianna Fail vote split between five candidates makes me think they're not going to take it.

Looking at the 2004 results, next in line is Sinn Fein but I think Frank Walsh would have gotten a bigger vote because he was a young candidate.

If I was to lay down money, I'd guess that Fine Gael will take the 6th seat. Jacqeuline Kelly wasn't that far behind Ivory when she was eliminated last time out. Fine Gael are more popular than they ever were. It's there for the taking but I don't know enough about the candidate to say whether she's the one to take it!

One thing is for sure though. The count will be very interesting from the word go in that ward! I'm looking forward to it.

nkay1985

wfman wrote: »

north
Quinlan, Hillary fg
Hayes, Pat lab
kelly, joe sf
roche, dick ind

---

south
halligan, john ind
ryan, Seamus lab
Cullinane, David sf
o'neill, cha ind
o'halloran, mary fg

---

east
Daniels, Davy ind
Walsh, Jack lab
roche, mary ind
Cunningham, Tom Fg
D'Arcy, Jim Fg
Kennedy, Mary Raftis gp

Interesting predictions there.

You reckon Tom Murphy is going to be the one to lose out in city south, that Dick Roche will unseat Davy Walsh and that the Green will take the new seat?

jmcc

wfman wrote: »

no or's jmcc go on call the last seat!

This would have been a lot easier with eVoting. But I think it could go to Maria Raftis-Kennedy even though Stephanie Keating has been FF for years. Catherine O'Neill is Brendan Keneally's cousin so this development is quite interesting - is this a dry run for a Dail seat when Keneally retires?

The reason why I think that Maria Raftis-Kennedy has a chance is because she is not McCann and this creates a novelty factor. Gary Wyse FF might have had a chance if the economy wasn't in such a bad state.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

nkay1985 wrote: »

I can't see the Green candidate taking the new seat. Say what you will about McCAnn but 5 years ago, he had a decent profile.

Yes but he messed it up for the Greens by allowing himself to be pigeonholed as a "serial objector".

I've never heard of this Raftis Kennedy person. Couple this with the fact that the Greens have been poor in Government in most people's opinion and I just can't see her taking it.

In realpolitik terms, the Greens hold the balance of power now. This is a force multiplier for a Green councillor.

The fact that they're running four candidates (insanity!) is another.

See above.

Looking at the 2004 results, next in line is Sinn Fein but I think Frank Walsh would have gotten a bigger vote because he was a young candidate.

This could be the wildcard in the election. East is now bigger than Ward 2 and there might be enough of a demographic shift to get an SF candidate elected this time around. This would be a hell of a shock to FF and as a protest vote, this is a good possibility.

One thing is for sure though. The count will be very interesting from the word go in that ward! I'm looking forward to it.

Yep. It should be fun watching the pols.

Regards...jmcc

wfman

nkay1985 wrote: »

Interesting predictions there.

You reckon Tom Murphy is going to be the one to lose out in city south, that Dick Roche will unseat Davy Walsh and that the Green will take the new seat?

i think mary o halloran and john cummins will have more votes between them then tom murphy and elaine walsh.murphy and o halloran might poll fairly close to each other but i think with john cummins behind her the transfers will put her well past murphy.

dick roche is a good bet to take last seat from davy walsh.davy has had that seat since the 70's but win or loose its probably fair to say that in his 60's it will be his last time standing.he scraped in the last few times and i think roche might just edge it.

last seat is hard to call ivory, Kennedy Raftis,and Hayes, Bill all in with a shout.

wfman

jmcc wrote: »

This would have been a lot easier with eVoting. But I think it could go to Maria Raftis-Kennedy even though Stephanie Keating has been FF for years. Catherine O'Neill is Brendan Keneally's cousin so this development is quite interesting - is this a dry run for a Dail seat when Keneally retires?

The reason why I think that Maria Raftis-Kennedy has a chance is because she is not McCann and this creates a novelty factor. Gary Wyse FF might have had a chance if the economy wasn't in such a bad state.

Regards...jmcc

i agree with you on maria raftis-kennedy taking the last seat.if she can poll higher then ff candidates.i think as the ff candidates are eliminated there votes will transfer green party and the other ff candidates.ff would have had a better chance with 2 candidates.

AdMMM

Candidate List
North

Hayes, Pat - The Labour Party
Kelly, Joe - Sinn Féin
Quinlan, Hillary - Fine Gael
Walsh, Davy - The Workers' Party
Roche, Dick - Independent

It really is a coinflip for this last seat. Dick Roche has a very good profile amongst workers in the City and I think he'll do well on transfers, certainly much better than Davy Walsh who I think will have to rely on a significant surplus from SF if he's to consider himself safe. I won't be able to analyse this ward with any real intricacy until more candidates announce their intention to run and where their votes could be transfered to.


South
Cullinane, David - Sinn Féin
Halligan, John - Independent
Murphy, Tom - Fianna Fáil
Ryan, Seamus - The Labour Party
Cha O'Neill - Ind

This ward has seen a significant development in its previous poll-topper becoming an independent Councillor. The old Workers Party vote will be split, although given the reputation that John has built up, I think he'll retain many of the old Workers Party supporters. There is an opportunity for Willie Moore to make an impact in this ward though. I think the decision to run two Fine Gael candidates in this ward will only hurt Mary Halloran, so much so that it will result in her not being elected. She got in by the skin of her teeth last time and I just can't see Tom Murphy's vote dropping by 40%.


East
Daniels, Davy - Ind
Cunningham, Tom - Fine Gael
D'Arcy, Jim - Fine Gael
Walsh, Jack - The Labour Party
Roche, Mary - Independent
Ivory, Michael - Independent

nkay1985

AdMMM wrote: »

Candidate List
North

Hayes, Pat - The Labour Party
Kelly, Joe - Sinn Féin
Quinlan, Hillary - Fine Gael
Walsh, Davy - The Workers' Party
Roche, Dick - Independent

It really is a coinflip for this last seat. Dick Roche has a very good profile amongst workers in the City and I think he'll do well on transfers, certainly much better than Davy Walsh who I think will have to rely on a significant surplus from SF if he's to consider himself safe. I won't be able to analyse this ward with any real intricacy until more candidates announce their intention to run and where their votes could be transfered to.

What do you mean by the piece in bold?

I'm not so sure there are many candidates waiting in the wings, to be honest. Fianna Fail have two running, Fine Gael, Labour Workers' Party and Sinn Fein have one with no intention of another and Dick Roche is independent. I haven't heard of anyone who's waiting to declare. Even if they do, I can't imagine they'd cause much of a difference.

AdMMM

What do you mean by the piece in bold?

Davy Walsh needs a lot of Joe Kelly's surplus to be transferred to him because I can't see eliminated candidates transferring as well to him as they would Dick Roche. Frank Walsh fell victim to this in the last election in Ward 2 after securing the 5th most first preference votes but got poor transfers throughout the subsequent counts and ended up dropping out of the race and missing out on the sit.

nkay1985

AdMMM wrote: »

Davy Walsh needs a lot of Joe Kelly's surplus to be transferred to him because I can't see eliminated candidates transferring as well to him as they would Dick Roche. Frank Walsh fell victim to this in the last election in Ward 2 after securing the 5th most first preference votes but got poor transfers throughout the subsequent counts and ended up dropping out of the race and missing out on the sit.

So you mean that you think Joe Kelly will reach a quota and therefore have a surplus to transfer?

AdMMM

That I do not know. I think Joe would need to increase his vote by ~30% for that to happen and he certainly won't lose his share but 30% is a lot to ask of any candidate to improve! If Joe Kelly fails to manage a decent surplus then Davy Walsh will struggle for transfers from the left whereas Dick Roche would be picking them up from all over the place. Of course this is all assuming that Dick Roche runs an effective campaign that gets him noticed over the next few weeks.

nkay1985

AdMMM wrote: »

That I do not know. I think Joe would need to increase his vote by ~30% for that to happen and he certainly won't lose his share but 30% is a lot to ask of any candidate to improve! If Joe Kelly fails to manage a decent surplus then Davy Walsh will struggle for transfers from the left whereas Dick Roche would be picking them up from all over the place. Of course this is all assuming that Dick Roche runs an effective campaign that gets him noticed over the next few weeks.

Yeah, I'm completely with you on this. I can't see him getting to a quota so I can't see how he could have anything to transfer to Davy.

The number of first preferences for Davy and Dick will be very important. Like you said, Dick is likely to pick up transfers all over the place, as independents do, but it's not good if he's not in the race long enough to get them!

He needs enough first preferences to outlast both FF candidates, who will still poll ok, with lots of transfers between them (let's not forget that Pat Power took a lot of FF votes last time out). I think that if he manages this he'll be very, very close to Davy come the end of the count.

Mickdots

Ward 1

Hayes Lab
Quinlan FG
Kelly SF
Roche Ind (huge dog fight between him and Walsh)

Ward 2

Daniels Ind
Walsh Lab
Roche Ind/FF
Kennedy GP
Cunningham FG
last seat will go to Fianna Fail on back of transfers, maybe O Neill

Ward 3

Halligan Ind
Ryan Lab
Cullinane SF
Cummins FG
last seat between Cha, O Halloran, Moore, Fell and Fianna Fail (think cha will do it!!)

wfman

nkay1985 wrote: »

What do you mean by the piece in bold?

I'm not so sure there are many candidates waiting in the wings, to be honest. Fianna Fail have two running, Fine Gael, Labour Workers' Party and Sinn Fein have one with no intention of another and Dick Roche is independent. I haven't heard of anyone who's waiting to declare. Even if they do, I can't imagine they'd cause much of a difference.

Brennan, Warren - The Green Party is also running.

Sully

Thanks for all the PMs, iv updated the original list and added the ward nos.

Mr. P

Here's my predictions

Candidate List
North - Ward 1
Hayes, Pat - The Labour Party
Kelly, Joe - Sinn Féin
Quinlan, Hillary - Fine Gael
Walsh, Davy - The Workers' Party (last seat will be close with Roche but I think Walsh will shade it).


South - Ward 3
Cullinane, David - Sinn Féin
Ryan, Seamus - The Labour Party
Halligan, John - Independent
Cummins, John - Fine Gael
Moore, Willie - The Workers' Party (Moore will get a good percentage of Halligan's 2004 1st preference & will pick up transfers from across the board) Tom Murphy to lose his seat. FG decision to run 2 candidates will hurt them badly with Cummins being the benefactor. FF transfers will go all over the place to FG, Lab.


East - Ward 2
Daniels, Davy - Independent
Cunningham, Tom - Fine Gael
D'Arcy, Jim - Fine Gael
Walsh, Jack - The Labour Party
Roche, Mary - Independent
O'Neill, Catherine - Fianna Fáil (Definite FF gain here. GP knocking McCann off the ticket will come back to haunt them. Kennedy-Raftis is a low profile candidate to make any headway. O'Neill to get in at the end.

Overall:
FG - 4
Lab - 3
SF - 2
WP - 2
FF - 1
Ind - 3

AdMMM

I noticed that the Mary O'Halloran posters are starting to appear now. They must have had to spend that little bit longer in Photoshop in Election HQ

Predictor

You are missing Cha O'neill from waterford city south (Ward 3) and he will get elected!

Predictions

Ward 1
Quinnlan (FG)
Hayes (LAB)
Kelly (SF)
Walsh (WP)

Dont see any changes here!

Ward 2
Danniels (IND)
Walsh (LAB)
Roche (IND)
Darcy (FG)
Kelly (FG)
O'neill (FF)

This is an interesting one, I think FF will have to take one seat here out of there 4 candidates. Cunningham (FG) is in trouble I think as Kelly will get in with D'Arcy, but it is possible FG could take 3 seats!

Ward 3

Ryan (LAB)
Cullinane (SF)
Halligan (IND)
O'neill (IND)
Cummins (FG)

This is the real battle ground, FG will be pushed hard for the last seat by Tom Murphy (FF) and Willie Moore (WP). O'Halloran or Cummins should get in, I believe it will be Cummins with the backing of his father and the fact that everyone seems to want new people and especially young people!

Partizan

Predictor wrote: »

You are missing Cha O'neill from waterford city south (Ward 3) and he will get elected!

Predictions

Ward 1
Quinnlan (FG)
Hayes (LAB)
Kelly (SF)
Walsh (WP)

Dont see any changes here!

Ward 2
Danniels (IND)
Walsh (LAB)
Roche (IND)
Darcy (FG)
Kelly (FG)
O'neill (FF)

This is an interesting one, I think FF will have to take one seat here out of there 4 candidates. Cunningham (FG) is in trouble I think as Kelly will get in with D'Arcy, but it is possible FG could take 3 seats!

Ward 3

Ryan (LAB)
Cullinane (SF)
Halligan (IND)
O'neill (IND)
Cummins (FG)

This is the real battle ground, FG will be pushed hard for the last seat by Tom Murphy (FF) and Willie Moore (WP). O'Halloran or Cummins should get in, I believe it will be Cummins with the backing of his father and the fact that everyone seems to want new people and especially young people!

Wards 1 & 2 spot on. FG will be the real winers in Ward 2 and i'm tipping FF to hold/gain here, depending on your outlook. O'Neill will take the last seat for FF as there has always been a FF seat in this area. Mary Roche comes from a FF background. Ward 1, Dick Roche although coming late in the field will push Walsh to the wire. However given the profile and track record, Walsh to prevail but it will tight.

Ward 3, this is where it gets interesting. Cullinane, Ryan and Halligan are dead certs, Cullinane to top the poll with a coin toss between Halligan and Ryan for the runners up spot. After that it gets real interesting. However i'm going for Cummins (FG) and Moore (WP) to sneak it. Murphy will lose his seat and the combined votes of Elaine Walsh and Murphy will not be enough to head off the Cummins onslaught. Cummins will prove to be real popular among young people and his addition to the field will be fatal to O'Halloran. For the last seat, i'm tipping Moore to get it. Why? well he will get approx 40% of the solid WP vote garnered in 2004 on top of his personal vote. He is well known in the area as a local community activist and is well liked. His profile will enable him to pick up votes from accross the spectrum , even from Murphy. On that form, that will see him over the line.

Thats my 2 cents worth.

Waterford City Council will look like the following come the mronig of the 7th June:

FG 4
FF 1
Lab 3
SF 2
WP 2
Ind 3

lets start the bal rolling. its do or die.

AdMMM

I'm still not sure about Cummins. He may come from a family that has their foot firmly in the door of local politics but I can't see him winning a seat this time around. Apart from his name, he has a relatively low profile outside of Ursuline Court. The vast majority won't vote blindly for him just because he's young. He will undoubtedly be a name for the papers in years to come but I just see Ward 3 as being too competitive this election for him to make enough ground on the experienced outgoing Councillors.

Perhaps Fine Gael are banking on Mary O'Hallorans mayorship to be enough to see her secure a seat but I can't help but think they've handicapped themselves by over estimating both the impact of her mayorship and the backlash on Tom Murphy's vote. Had Tom only won a seat in 2004 then I could understand FG's thinking, but Tom has been on the Council for 10 years now and will have amassed a good personal vote in this time. It's a very realistic possibility that FG won't have a seat in Ward 3 by the end of this election.