BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

euroboom13 · 10-06-2014 8:32pm

conditioned games wrote: »

There are bigger risks than that to the future share price of BOI. Wilbur is one of many billionaires who have been quietly dumping stocks over the last few months. Others to exit the stock markets include Warren Buffett, George Soros and John Paulson.

Whats coming down the road in the international financial markets will make the fallout from 2008 look like a speed bump to the real thing. Thinking of holding on to BOI shares for the next few years is not the brightest of ideas. According to Wiedemer who predicted the last financial collaspe, says after the brief period of deflation this will be followed by a 90% stock market crash and hyper inflation. These people are billionaires because they know when to buy in and when to exit a stock market at the right time.

If there is a 90% stock crash ,where is the hyper inflation coming?
If cash is devaluing rapidly all assets go up, and banks benefit the most!
But I do commend your report, Edgar Allen Poe would be proud!

euroboom13 · 10-06-2014 8:57pm

euroboom13 wrote: »

another great thread bites the dust.....feel the pain of lost hope

or is there any brave`s left!!.....(9.3cent for the record)

13 June 2012

Tried to tell people to be brave nearly exactly 2yrs ago and met the same wall of negativity and a common trait of all criticism was to question my intelligence!

Go long people!

ABC101 · 10-06-2014 9:09pm

save_me_some wrote: »

surely there are not enough of them in circulation for it to be worth his while , with a mere 1% float, it leaves little room for offloading the kind of holdings mr ross undertakes

I'm in no way any expert... however with 1% in circulation and the Govt holding 99%.... what I am thinking of is the Govt invites various institutional investors in...W.R. takes 15%, Govt holds 20%... other institutionals take 64% etc etc.

The shares are sold at 2.5c to these institutionals etc.

Then 3 years later... W.R. sells his AIB stock at 12c etc etc.

I'm just surmising.. that's all.

Farmer Pudsey · 10-06-2014 9:16pm

ABC101 wrote: »

I'm in no way any expert... however with 1% in circulation and the Govt holding 99%.... what I am thinking of is the Govt invites various institutional investors in...W.R. takes 15%, Govt holds 20%... other institutionals take 64% etc etc.

The shares are sold at 2.5c to these institutionals etc.

Then 3 years later... W.R. sells his AIB stock at 12c etc etc.

I'm just surmising.. that's all.

Wish washy. AIB is valued at 55 billion with present share price. It real value is 2c/share. It is like lads thinking that BOI will be worth 5 euro in 10 years time or even 1 euro at year end. I am an optmist on BOI but not that farm. If it hits 40 sell, if it drops below 25 buy. With AIB keep a barge pole handy.

ABC101 · 10-06-2014 9:16pm

conditioned games wrote: »

There are bigger risks than that to the future share price of BOI. Wilbur is one of many billionaires who have been quietly dumping stocks over the last few months. Others to exit the stock markets include Warren Buffett, George Soros and John Paulson.

Whats coming down the road in the international financial markets will make the fallout from 2008 look like a speed bump to the real thing. Thinking of holding on to BOI shares for the next few years is not the brightest of ideas. According to Wiedemer who predicted the last financial collaspe, says after the brief period of deflation this will be followed by a 90% stock market crash and hyper inflation. These people are billionaires because they know when to buy in and when to exit a stock market at the right time.

Again I'm no expert... however I am led to believe there is a general feeling among investors that the easy pickings in Europe are over.

If you are looking at making 300% every 3 years like WR... then you have to keep changing horses... coz eventually the horse you are on gets tired.

In relation to the stock market crash... if one looks at the US markets they are reaching all time highs.... that I believe is because the FED has been printing US bills at a rate of knots, 2.8 Trillion I believe.

Where has all this money gone... into the Stock markets.

If Mario Draghi ECB starts a print run... the euro devalues... which will drive assets up, including stocks.

I could be wrong of course... but that is my take on it.

conditioned games · 10-06-2014 9:33pm

ABC101 wrote: »

Again I'm no expert... however I am led to believe there is a general feeling among investors that the easy pickings in Europe are over.

If you are looking at making 300% every 3 years like WR... then you have to keep changing horses... coz eventually the horse you are on gets tired.

In relation to the stock market crash... if one looks at the US markets they are reaching all time highs.... that I believe is because the FED has been printing US bills at a rate of knots, 2.8 Trillion I believe.

Where has all this money gone... into the Stock markets.

If Mario Draghi ECB starts a print run... the euro devalues... which will drive assets up, including stocks.

I could be wrong of course... but that is my take on it.

Yep most of that printed money has gone into the stock markets. But if the inflated markets get a reality check then that built up energy has to go somewhere and that's when commodities rocket. Anyhow in bad times banks dont do well, companies dont borrow to expand, consumers tighten the belts and overall less business for banks. I think it is too risky to be investing in banks right now.

euroboom13 · 10-06-2014 9:44pm

conditioned games wrote: »

Yep most of that printed money has gone into the stock markets. But if the inflated markets get a reality check then that built up energy has to go somewhere and that's when commodities rocket. Anyhow in bad times banks dont do well, companies dont borrow to expand, consumers tighten the belts and overall less business for banks. I think it is too risky to be investing in banks right now.

Commodities are way to high already, that's why we have mining /exploration companies appearing everywhere.

European stock had a reality check already.

When things tighten up commodities fall not rise?

Without banking there is no future(for capitalism).

ABC101 · 10-06-2014 9:48pm

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Wish washy. AIB is valued at 55 billion with present share price. It real value is 2c/share. It is like lads thinking that BOI will be worth 5 euro in 10 years time or even 1 euro at year end. I am an optmist on BOI but not that farm. If it hits 40 sell, if it drops below 25 buy. With AIB keep a barge pole handy.

Not sure what you refer to when you use 'Wishy washy'...you mention 2c / share I wrote 2.5 c a share...are we not almost in de same ball park?

ABC101 · 10-06-2014 10:26pm

Positive article on 'The Journal.ie'

http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/bank-of-ireland-share-wilbur-ross-in-stride-1509308-Jun2014/

Mentioning that WR specialises in distressed assets. BoI is no longer distressed....so time to move on.

"Investec Ireland chief economist Philip O’Sullivan said that it seemed the market is taking the placement of Ross’ 1.8 billion shares in its stride.
He said that the bank is generally in a good position, despite the investor’s decision to dump the remainder of his holding.
“From an investor standpoint, Bank of Ireland has a lot of things going for it.”
“It is highly leveraged to a recovering Irish economy, while the improving prospects for the housing market in particular offer the prospect for capital friendly provision write-backs following the conclusion of the EBC’s stress tests later this year.”

Source .... The Journal, 10th June 2014.

lucky john · 10-06-2014 11:28pm

conditioned games wrote: »

There are bigger risks than that to the future share price of BOI. Wilbur is one of many billionaires who have been quietly dumping stocks over the last few months. Others to exit the stock markets include Warren Buffett, George Soros and John Paulson.

I'd like to see where you got the information that Warren Buffet is exiting the stock market. That would go against everything he believes in so please post the links.

Farmer Pudsey · 10-06-2014 11:29pm

ABC101 wrote: »

Not sure what you refer to when you use 'Wishy washy'...you mention 2c / share I wrote 2.5 c a share...are we not almost in de same ball park?

The Wishy washy was the part where the share would be worth 12c in 3 years time. That values the bank at over 60 billion in 3 years time. 2+2.5 won't make 60 billion.

ABC101 · 11-06-2014 12:20am

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

The Wishy washy was the part where the share would be worth 12c in 3 years time. That values the bank at over 60 billion in 3 years time. 2+2.5 won't make 60 billion.

Again.... as I mentioned previously...I was just surmising.... as distinct from guaranteed 100% exact forecast set in stone.

If W.R. buys AIB at 2 or 2.5 or 2.3456633445 ... and sells at 6... or 8 etc instead of 12.

It was just a general point.... buying low and selling higher regardless if it is 12 or 6 cent he sells at etc etc.

I think it would be very funny... if having made x billion in BOI.... W.R. then goes on to make another y billion in AIB.

conditioned games · 11-06-2014 1:24pm

lucky john wrote: »

I'd like to see where you got the information that Warren Buffet is exiting the stock market. That would go against everything he believes in so please post the links.

I tried posting the link but boards is telling I cant as I'm a new user. However if you put "buffet investors exiting stock market" into google an article on newsmax comes up saying investors such as Buffet have been dumping their stocks.

lucky john · 11-06-2014 2:33pm

conditioned games wrote: »

I tried posting the link but boards is telling I cant as I'm a new user. However if you put "buffet investors exiting stock market" into google an article on rs such as Buffet have been dumping their stocks.

That's a bit of a misleading article. It just mentioned the under performing stocks he reduced but nothing about what he did with the sale money. Here is the most up to date info on what he is actually doing that I could find.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/17/heres-what-warren-buffett-has-been-buying-and-sell.aspx

Evergreen · 12-06-2014 8:49am

lucky john wrote: »

That's a bit of a misleading article. It just mentioned the under performing stocks he reduced but nothing about what he did with the sale money. Here is the most up to date info on what he is actually doing that I could find.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/17/heres-what-warren-buffett-has-been-buying-and-sell.aspx

Actually, the fool.com article is dated in February 2014 and the Newsmax one is from June 11th 2014. Not saying the sentiment of the fool.com article is wrong, it's just not the most recent.

sepp_blatter · 12-06-2014 8:28pm

motley fool is a pretty poor standard financial site IMO

ABC101 · 13-06-2014 12:26am

Interesting article in de independent, mortgage arrears fell by 6,000. In de last few months.

Let's hope things steadily get better and people start to get their lives back etc

lucky john · 13-06-2014 12:28am

sepp_blatter wrote: »

motle fool is a pretty poor standard financial site IMO

Its not the FT but it's a lot more balanced the a headline that says "Billionaires dumping stocks" and then "A handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of “disappointing performance” in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and .....

Buffet sells and BUYS stocks all the time. http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/2014news.html. or if you want it from the horse mouth google Warren Buffets letter to share holders 2014.

The Internet is fantastic for information but plenty of agendas and contradictions. "Dumping stocks" gives the impression of panic selling. Buffet does not do panic, nor does Soros. I see headlines in papers this week saying Ross dumps BoI shares. The man made millions in profits on a very much planned sale. Guys new to investing reading headlines like that might question their on ability and panic for no reason.

ABC101 · 16-06-2014 12:00am

So according to John Murray..... W.R. is buying stock in Eurobank and not AIB as I surmised earlier.

Perhaps AIB will come next year?

This W.R. fellow is on a roll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Seamus1964 · 16-06-2014 7:33am

Or perhaps Eurobank is worth to buy and AIB is'nt?

Static M.e. · 17-06-2014 8:53am

Anyone going to buy Eurobank then?

ABC101 · 17-06-2014 10:46pm

Well AIB at 10 or 11c is fantasy territory .......................... as we all know.

I was looking at the graph on Yahoo for Eurobank.... and at 41c it is looking pretty flat for some time now..... just like BoI when it bottomed out at 7c.

Decisions....... decisions.......

Now if I was a gambling man.........................!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ABC101 · 17-06-2014 10:52pm

Seamus1964 wrote: »

Or perhaps Eurobank is worth to buy and AIB is'nt?

No Sh*t Sherlock!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

spear_mint · 05-07-2014 4:49pm

Value Hunter wrote: »

Remember the banks had massive profits during the boom because of the rampant property industry. That is gone. It won't becoming back. They won't be making anywhere near their past profits for many years to come. Wheres all this profit going to come from to justify a €60 Billion valuation??

Even in the boom the highest they reached was a market cap of €18 Billion, what makes you think the public are going to buy enough during a recession to put their value up to €60 Billion? Especially when they all have recent experience of a banking collapse??

They won't ever achieve a monopoly either, if theirs money to be made believe me competitors will enter the market

Best of luck if you'r investing, but honestly if your expecting to make profit from the public suddenly going bank share crazy and buying up so much shares so that their worth more than Goldman Sachs, I seriously think you need to rethink your strategy

Goldman Sachs made over €6 Billion profit last year

all those things you predicted eleven months ago which " were never coming back "

are back ! , property rebounding etc , i read the entire thread , you,ve been a permabear on bank of ireland from when it was around 10 cents , you talk of how it was worth 18 billion at the height of the boom and how that would transfer into 60 cents a share today , even this country makes an average return to prosperity , surely bank of ireland can recover to two thirds of the price it was at which would price it at 40 cents

i dont see bank of ireland finishing the year above 35 cents and it may not get above 40 cents for a few years but the days of it going back below 15 cents are well in the past

permabears are no more credible than permabulls , the reality is the aftermath of 2008 was never near as bad as the media made out , their were still plenty of people with money , those who had the money couldnt believe their luck as recent as 2011 when fine houses in south dublin could be bought for prices which had not been seen since the early to mid nineties , we hadnt a bomb dropped on us like japan in 1945 , we just had a banking crisis , we were always going to bounce back

Chancer3001 · 05-07-2014 7:51pm

Very simple question that shows what a NOOB I am....

if I want to buy shares in The Ftse 100 and in the Nasdaq. What codes (ya know the 3/4 letter codes you put in when buying) do I use?

Silly question, but struggling to figure it out!!

dharn · 05-07-2014 9:28pm

Just google stock quote for what company you are interested in buying ,eg apple nasdaq symbol, microsoft nasdaq symbol etc

ABC101 · 05-07-2014 10:34pm

Impossible to know the future.. however BoI are getting back on track, slowly turning a profit (since Jan 2014), much more experienced (due to crash in 2008), and Ireland's population has increased since 2008, by 13% (I think).

We have had the crash, the doldrum phase, BoI has survived and is gearing up for more profits.

I think a number of things will affect the share price over the next 12 to 18 months.

1) Recommencement of dividends, even a v.small one would be seen as positive.
2) Growing business due to pop growth and housing demand.
3) Declining levels of arrears due to people getting their jobs back.
4) A number of banks have upped sticks and left... this increases market share for those who remain... including BoI.

With 32 billion shares in issue... I would like to see share buybacks commence, this would increase the value of shares held by existing shareholders etc.

Who knows what will happen... but if the positives are increasing... and the negatives reducing... then I think we can say things are looking up which can only do one thing for the SP... and that is slowly upwards!!!

Chancer3001 · 06-07-2014 12:05am

dharn wrote: »

Just google stock quote for what company you are interested in buying ,eg apple nasdaq symbol, microsoft nasdaq symbol etc

I'm not looking for shares in apple though or Microsoft. I'm looking to buy into the actual market. Or if I can't do that, a fund that just has the top 100 companies on the market....

Chancer3001 · 06-07-2014 12:06am

Like for example...

The ftse 100 is the top 100 companies on the ftse.

Can I buy a share in that? In the ftse 100?

Again, sorry for being such a noob

quadrifoglio verde · 06-07-2014 12:10am

Chancer3001 wrote: »

Like for example...

The ftse 100 is the top 100 companies on the ftse.

Can I buy a share in that? In the ftse 100?

Again, sorry for being such a noob

Sounds like you need an etf that tracks the index. Much less risk and can still be very profitable over the long run.

BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

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