BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

beardy_smith

euroboom13 wrote: »

Yes ,still a steal under 30c.
Bottom fish all you want!

well of course il bottom fish all i can , thats the whole point

calling it a steal under 30 cents was a poor call , thats not to say those who bought @ 29 wont make money long term but they would have made far more had they bought at todays levels

euroboom13

beardy_smith wrote: »

well of course il bottom fish all i can , thats the whole point

calling it a steal under 30 cents was a poor call , thats not to say those who bought @ 29 wont make money long term but they would have made far more had they bought at todays levels

I don't day trade or bottom fish, its not a game you will get good at with experience .
Only a mug holds for bottom or top!

(I also called it a steal long before it reached 30c )good luck all

euroboom13

beardy_smith wrote: »

the very successfull traders do , the average ones make do with moderate gains provided they are prepared to hold for long enough

Traders have a habit of blowing up, when there patterns lie.... but you will find your own truth

neil.p.b

Euroboom, what are your thoughts on BKIRs financials over the next few years? Do you have estimates in mind, have you done any analysis on the a/c's? Even if interest rates do rise, and thus operating income, the defaulting loans and impairment charges aren't going to significantly decrease in the next few years and they'll be doing well to break a profit in the next 2/3 years, how do you justify anything under 30c (valuing the company at TEN BILLION euro) as a steal? Operating profit would pretty much have to double to justify this valuation with the impairment charges at the level they are.

euroboom13

neil.p.b wrote: »

Euroboom, what are your thoughts on BKIRs financials over the next few years? Do you have estimates in mind, have you done any analysis on the a/c's? Even if interest rates do rise, and thus operating income, the defaulting loans and impairment charges aren't going to significantly decrease in the next few years and they'll be doing well to break a profit in the next 2/3 years, how do you justify anything under 30c (valuing the company at TEN BILLION euro) as a steal? Operating profit would pretty much have to double to justify this valuation with the impairment charges at the level they are.

You are caught up in zombie bank/economy figures, I see the start off a recovery stage.I can't understand who would see any recent annual report as any guide to future earning?

Aib was valued at 88bilion this year(wrongly), yet you get excited about our good bank hitting 10b?

I don't want your approval or reassurance .

What's your long view?

neil.p.b

euroboom13 wrote: »

You are caught up in zombie bank/economy figures, I see the start off a recovery stage.I can't understand who would see any recent annual report as any guide to future earning?

Aib was valued at 88bilion this year(wrongly), yet you get excited about our good bank hitting 10b?

I don't want your approval or reassurance .

What's your long view?

I'm not asking you about recent earnings. I'm asking you about future earnings. Whats your expectations on future earnings and impairment charges that make the current valuation a steal? Do you know how the market usually values banks? These are all pretty basic questions.

lucky john

Value Hunter wrote: »

What about the €20 Billion in defaulting loans? Should we all buy and hold hoping for 40c a share and for this €20 billion to just magically disappear?

Why would I be waiting for that 20billion to dissappear?

Can you show me the figures that prove there is a €20 billion hole in the first place.

euroboom13

neil.p.b wrote: »

I'm not asking you about recent earnings. I'm asking you about future earnings. Whats your expectations on future earnings and impairment charges that make the current valuation a steal? Do you know how the market usually values banks? These are all pretty basic questions.[/QUOTE

Neil.p.b.
I am well aware of my expectations of future earnings.

I am also sure that you are quite capable of reading too.

What I read and what I think don't go hand in hand, if they did ,i would be led well up the garden path by now.(maybe you should read less and think more, if possible.

good luck

euroboom13

neil.p.b wrote: »

I'm not asking you about recent earnings. I'm asking you about future earnings. Whats your expectations on future earnings and impairment charges that make the current valuation a steal? Do you know how the market usually values banks? These are all pretty basic questions.

Just one more thing!

Do I know how markets usually value banks??? yes, wrongly!

Market value boi for the first six months.
24c low
39c high
32c Ave( anything under 30c a steal)
My prediction wasn`t in hindsight, may seem that way.

Good luck

Value Hunter

lucky john wrote: »

Why would I be waiting for that 20billion to dissappear?

Can you show me the figures that prove there is a €20 billion hole in the first place.

Its in the latest annual report, most bulls gloss over it though, you didn't even include it in your list of potential reasons for the declining share price in your previous post.

I don't understand how anyone can believe this is a good investment at these levels with €20 billion in defaulting loans hanging over their head.

Below 15c and its worth a punt, below 10c and its a buy, and these levels its very very generously valued. The risk to reward is simply not worth it at anywhere near this price

euroboom13

Value Hunter wrote: »

Its in the latest annual report, most bulls gloss over it though, you didn't even include it in your list of potential reasons for the declining share price in your previous post.

I don't understand how anyone can believe this is a good investment at these levels with €20 billion in defaulting loans hanging over their head.

Below 15c and its worth a punt, below 10c and its a buy, and these levels its very very generously valued. The risk to reward is simply not worth it at anywhere near this price

If you had a time machine you would make yourself a lot of loot ,fortunately some people here bought at them prices, and only now you see their logic.

Did you not realise before you open last years report that it was based on a none functioning system? we are betting on a global tide ,to repair the playing field.Then after a few years of functioning ,we will all sit down and do our due`s, You can waste all the time you want .

This was never an investment grade stock(well since07) so why study it like one, nuts! time wasters.
Loads of knowledge and no wisdom.
Good luck

Value Hunter

euroboom13 wrote: »

If you had a time machine you would make yourself a lot of loot ,fortunately some people here bought at them prices, and only now you see their logic.

Did you not realise before you open last years report that it was based on a none functioning system? we are betting on a global tide ,to repair the playing field.Then after a few years of functioning ,we will all sit down and do our due`s, You can waste all the time you want .

This was never an investment grade stock(well since07) so why study it like one, nuts! time wasters.
Loads of knowledge and no wisdom.
Good luck

Everything is a brilliant investment in your mind, some of us are wiser to know that not everything turns out like the movies, things don't always get better and shareholders can get wiped out.

Some basic ability to read a set of accounts would do you a world of good

neil.p.b

Euroboom, it's like trying to get blood from a stone with you, lets be honest, you've done no real research here and you've basically taken a punt? I honestly think if BKIR had gone to 1euro and was back down to 60c as things stand today you'd be shouting from the rooftops saying what bargain prices they were.

euroboom13

Value Hunter wrote: »

Everything is a brilliant investment in your mind, some of us are wiser to know that not everything turns out like the movies, things don't always get better and shareholders can get wiped out.

Some basic ability to read a set of accounts would do you a world of good

I don't watch "the movies" but I take your word for it.
Do you think it takes much ability to read an annual report ?

There is zero return on this stock. It is not an investment.it is a recovery stock.

Everything is not a brilliant investment for me, only the ones I invest in!

Good luck

euroboom13

neil.p.b wrote: »

Euroboom, it's like trying to get blood from a stone with you, lets be honest, you've done no real research here and you've basically taken a punt? I honestly think if BKIR had gone to 1euro and was back down to 60c as things stand today you'd be shouting from the rooftops saying what bargain prices they were.

Bull,i have called this one right for a very long time.i have done more research than anyone truth be known and have done very well out of it.I can't get my head around your negativity, all your points are based on today's none functioning system, and you can't see beyond it.

By treating this as an investment you are missing the punt, and it is by no way an investment, so why pretend????

You have me wrong and yourselves pigeon holed!
Why are you arguing that this has to be seen as an investment???
ITS NOT INVESTABLE ,IT HAS ZERO RETURN

Farmer Pudsey

Can anyone tell mr how much of Irish government bonds BKI holds and in what yer they bought them with EU funding.

neil.p.b

euroboom13 wrote: »

By treating this as an investment you are missing the punt, and it is by no way an investment, so why pretend????

You may as well go down to the bookies with this attitude, you are neither 'investing' in it or 'trading' it, just hoping for the best and telling people on here what a good price anything under 30c is.

I'm not trying to be rude here or having a go at anybody invested in BKIR despite my POV, contrarian views are what makes a market, but without fundamental reasoning as to why the bank will succeed, being able to describe how the bank will start turning a profit despite the continuing defaults and impairments, or from a technical stand point as to why this is a good entry/exit point you are literally just rolling the dice on some wishful thinking.

euroboom13 wrote: »

Why are you arguing that this has to be seen as an investment???
ITS NOT INVESTABLE ,IT HAS ZERO RETURN

euroboom13 wrote: »

b o I is returning from recovery play ,to investment stock! Go long all!gla

lucky john

Value Hunter wrote: »

Its in the latest annual report, most bulls gloss over it though, you didn't even include it in your list of potential reasons for the declining share price in your previous post.

I don't understand how anyone can believe this is a good investment at these levels with €20 billion in defaulting loans hanging over their head.

Below 15c and its worth a punt, below 10c and its a buy, and these levels its very very generously valued. The risk to reward is simply not worth it at anywhere near this price

Can you copy and paste the page of the annual report that says "we have a 20 billion hole in our balance sheet" please V H. I know you know your stuff when it comes to investing but your are been disingenuous here. You are assuming 0 security on the properties involved. Worst case sinario there is at least 55% equity in the defaulted properties and every day this equity in growing. There is also 8 billion + left aside to cover bad debt. So the actual hole is in the region of 1 billion.

The 1 billion figure is not even sure because we have know way of actually knowing what boi would get for selling the repossessed property's. We also don't know when the properties were bought. If the were bought pre boom and not at peek then the equity in them is better that 55%. As properties rise in value, as in evident now,so the loss narrows. It is not impossible that boi have put more that enough aside for the expected losses.

Anyway, if there is a 20 billion hole the ecb will have no problem failing bkir duering the stress test and proving me wrong and you right so we'll all know in a few months.

dealhunter1985

lucky john wrote: »

Can you copy and paste the page of the annual report that says "we have a 20 billion hole in our balance sheet" please V H. I know you know your stuff when it comes to investing but your are been disingenuous here. You are assuming 0 security on the properties involved. Worst case sinario there is at least 55% equity in the defaulted properties and every day this equity in growing. There is also 8 billion + left aside to cover bad debt. So the actual hole is in the region of 1 billion.

The 1 billion figure is not even sure because we have know way of actually knowing what boi would get for selling the repossessed property's. We also don't know when the properties were bought. If the were bought pre boom and not at peek then the equity in them is better that 55%. As properties rise in value, as in evident now,so the loss narrows. It is not impossible that boi have put more that enough aside for the expected losses.

Anyway, if there is a 20 billion hole the ecb will have no problem failing bkir duering the stress test and proving me wrong and you right so we'll all know in a few months.

Yeah its the first I heard of the 20 billion hole aswell.
I didnt read the annual report but would have expected such large holes to have been plugged by now. Especially with the upcoming stress tests..

euroboom13

neil.p.b wrote: »

You may as well go down to the bookies with this attitude, you are neither 'investing' in it or 'trading' it, just hoping for the best and telling people on here what a good price anything under 30c is.

I'm not trying to be rude here or having a go at anybody invested in BKIR despite my POV, contrarian views are what makes a market, but without fundamental reasoning as to why the bank will succeed, being able to describe how the bank will start turning a profit despite the continuing defaults and impairments, or from a technical stand point as to why this is a good entry/exit point you are literally just rolling the dice on some wishful thinking.

BOI shares steadily rising... worth a punt?( read the title)

I don't trade/I only invest in safe investments and I speculate .

I am not relying on hope I see the world view, which points to huge European growth. Its not wishful thinking either but if you don't see the bigger picture it will pass you by and you will write my punt off as luck.

If w.ross didn't see potential economic improvements he wouldn`t have bought on fundamentals. Why didn't he go to paddy powers.

You are rude and small minded(trying to make out your understanding of the annual reports is beyond others)

euroboom13

Good luck

euroboom13

neil.p.b wrote: »

The point is that you as an investor only see the risk, you're job pretty much entails you to look for very low risk investments that you see as definitely getting you a return on.

I doubt for second anyone on here doesn't see the risk with BOI, but with risk comes return. Personally i dont think the bank will be nationalised, id even put a probability of 10% of it happening, if it doesn't, in the long term, 1-3 years, it becomes a very good investment. In my opinion.

The problem i've got with your posts is you're just not sound about it, there's no constructiveness being added to the debate, you put everyones opinion down because it doesn't meet yours.

Where did this guy go too?

Farmer Pudsey

Did the ECB lend the Irish banks money 2-3 years back with which they bought mainly Irish government Bonds. I think it was part of a bail out of the PIIGS. I taught the money was in the billions. If they did the Irish banks would be showing a healty return in that investment.

The other thing some posters forget is that because BOI, AIB and PTSB have huge losses capitalised on there books they will pay no tax(I know corporation tax is only 12.5%) for years.

neil.p.b

euroboom13 wrote: »

Where did this guy go too?

Still here. He bought BKIR at a market cap of €220m. It's now €8b.

Farmer Pudsey

neil.p.b wrote: »

Still here. He bought BKIR at a market cap of €220m. It's now €8b.

From that you bough in at 0.5c/share fair play.

neil.p.b

euroboom13 wrote: »

BOI shares steadily rising... worth a punt?( read the title)

I don't trade/I only invest in safe investments and I speculate .

I am not relying on hope I see the world view, which points to huge European growth. Its not wishful thinking either but if you don't see the bigger picture it will pass you by and you will write my punt off as luck.

If w.ross didn't see potential economic improvements he wouldn`t have bought on fundamentals. Why didn't he go to paddy powers.

You are rude and small minded(trying to make out your understanding of the annual reports is beyond others)

euroboom13

Good luck

Future European growth does not mean BKIR is a good investment at these levels.

The fact 1) you can't articulate how BKIR is going to turn a profit in the next few years and 2)dismiss the annual reports says it all really.

Good luck with your investment. I might jump in here for a trade when it hits the teens.

neil.p.b

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

From that you bough in at 0.5c/share fair play.

22c - 2009

euroboom13

neil.p.b wrote: »

Future European growth does not mean BKIR is a good investment at these levels.

The fact 1) you can't articulate how BKIR is going to turn a profit in the next few years and 2)dismiss the annual reports says it all really.

Good luck with your investment. I might jump in here for a trade when it hits the teens.

I`ve asked you to articulate your price target which is more relevant than discussing none performance or hypothetical losses!

I do give annual reports full respect they deserve but reading annual reports didn`t insulate any investors in 2007/8/9/10/11 and it won`t help predict any future growth!I am sorry if that is beyond your comprehension and you would rather insult then even consider their absurdity.

Enjoy your pigeon hole
Good luck.

dharn

22c.. could be worse, I bought at 12 euro, aaargh:mad:

BrokenArrows

Any idea what the 5% increase is about today?

save_me_some

BrokenArrows wrote: »

Any idea what the 5% increase is about today?

its a volatile stock so 5% up or down is commonplace

we are fast approaching the time when wilbur ross can sell more of his holding , if he doesnt , i suspect we head to 30 pretty quick , if he does , we will dip below 20 before summer is over