BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

Vologda69 wrote: »

I think you only pay income tax on employee shares. Perhaps more experience traders might enlighten us.

No. Income is income, regardless of where it comes from. Scortho's highly dubious accounting practices would cause any trader to be in hot water with the revenue pretty quickly if you can't show where your money is coming from.

I can't begin to calculate the penalties :-P

Comordha wrote: »

Share Price is slowly dropping from recent high. If it is to revert closer to its moving average price it still has a bit to fall. You'd have to imagine profit taking at these levels considering the 20-30% upside in 1 month. Long term though there's no doubting the possibilities, could be a ten bagger within 5-7yrs.

are you saying €2 within 5-7 years?

Value Hunter wrote: »

Remember the banks had massive profits during the boom because of the rampant property industry. That is gone. It won't becoming back. They won't be making anywhere near their past profits for many years to come. Wheres all this profit going to come from to justify a €60 Billion valuation??

Even in the boom the highest they reached was a market cap of €18 Billion, what makes you think the public are going to buy enough during a recession to put their value up to €60 Billion? Especially when they all have recent experience of a banking collapse??

They won't ever achieve a monopoly either, if theirs money to be made believe me competitors will enter the market

Best of luck if you'r investing, but honestly if your expecting to make profit from the public suddenly going bank share crazy and buying up so much shares so that their worth more than Goldman Sachs, I seriously think you need to rethink your strategy



Goldman Sachs made over €6 Billion profit last year

I think you've missed the point I'm making and simply repeated your earlier point, which is that you don't believe BOI will ever be worth €60billion, that's fair enough. I'm not suggesting it will or it won't - I simply don't know what it will be worth in 5 - 10 years.

What I am suggesting is that when the Recession ends and there is prolonged (2 years +) sustainable growth in the Economy both here and in the EU generally, then based on how BOI is currently performing, assuming it can return to profitability by next year which now seems likely, then the bank will be better positioned to expand its business beyond even that of the boom years.

So in fairness I don't think your question regarding the public spending in a recession is relevant at all, or develops your argument in any way, given its clear I am considering the situation of the Bank in a country both emerging from a recession and in the period beyond that recession.

The simple fact is that with the return of economic growth there will be large scale investment in commercial development - thats inevitable. Will it ever get to the levels experienced during the Celtic Tiger again? Who know's - possibly not, I'm not going to speculate, nor do I feel I need to.

I believe that the lack of competition in the Market combined with the resurgence of BOI's reputation both here and abroad will make it the primary and largely only beneficiary of any upsurge in the Market in the short to medium term.

Of course its true that the free market will enable competitors to ultimately establish in Ireland, however firstly many of the likely candidates still have enough problems of their own to deal, both in terms of their own financial situation and with regards to their positions within their own countries to risk establishing in a Market that burnt so many so badly in the past.

BOI is already here, the branches remain open in all parts of the country and they have closed far less of those than AIB.

The point I'm making is that attempting to speculate as to how BOI will perform in a post recession market by effectively stating "It can never do as well as it did in the Boom" fails to have regard to all the relevant factors.

Perhaps begin now by asking how BOI would have performed in the Boom in the absence of AIB and ANGLO, and whether the Market Cap of €18 billion which you effectively referred to as an unattainable valuation for ever more really represents such.

littlemac1980 wrote: »

On a completely side note but entirely relevant nonetheless :

Isn't it great to be arguing about what we think this Bank might be worth in the future as opposed to wondering if it will go bust.

it may well go bust yet. We are 7 years into a banking crisis and still the major issues within the residential book remain unresolved.

Sonnenblumen wrote: »

BTW, most of the signs despite being weak indicators all indicate that the country is emerging (which practically every commentator agrees is certainly to happen at some point) from the various crises not just the banking one.

most commentators agreed that we would have a soft landing in 2006 as well. How has that worked out for people.

How about high unemployment, no growth , austerity, mortgage arrears continuing to climb , the buy to let issue , the 90000 nama properties still to hit the market, the 1.5 billion to be repaid to the government buy boi. How about the 1000 people who emigrate every week. How about the lack of credit available to businesses. There are EU stress test next year to be passed. Some banks are finally starting to do deals on debts this is going to further hit there reserves.

I see far mose reasons to be negitive on Irish banks than positive.