BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

marc_faber

lucky john wrote: »

They tend to give very little extra info at the agm. Mostly just a general progress report but light on figures. Still you'd be hoping they would give enough tomorrow to light a little fire under the share price.

boucher gave nothing away before the parlimentary finance committe three weeks ago and the SP dropped 15 % from 30 cents to 26.5 within a week

i dont see that happening tommorrow but i dont see a major bounce either

lucky john

marc_faber wrote: »

boucher gave nothing away before the parlimentary finance committe three weeks ago and the SP dropped 15 % from 30 cents to 26.5 within a week

i dont see that happening tommorrow but i dont see a major bounce either

Since fy13 results and ross selling the share price has taken a hammering. Not all boi's fault but there has to be a little embarrassment (or maybe annoyance) on the board seeing as they talked it up so much in the lead up to the ross sale. I'm sure the buyers are well p****d off. I believe things are progressing nicely behind the scenes so there's just a chance Richie might be tempted to give enough guidance to at least justify the 33c price the German's paid for ross' s shares.

Pure speculation on my behalf and probably believing bankers have feelings is a bit much to expect. Still, I live in hope.

lucky john

Apart from the nim at 2.05% creeping up no other figures given this morning. A bit disappointing but not surprising. All seems to be on track so just more patience required. I doubt much extra will come out at the agm but I think there should be enough reassurance there to get back over 30c and maybe a bit more.

dealhunter1985

what the fooking fuke!

dharn

What the fook are you on about

quadrifoglio verde

dealhunter1985 wrote: »

what the fooking fuke!

Taking a hammering?

Thanos

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

Taking a hammering?

Indeed, just sitting above 25c now could well dip into the 24's today......

dealhunter1985

I sure am

quadrifoglio verde

dealhunter1985 wrote: »

I sure am

It goes with this share. It goes on rally's from time to time before falling back to a realistic level. For be close to 40c a share was never realistic for the bank.
At the same time 8-9c a share two years ago was undervalued.

Farmer Pudsey

Thanos wrote: »

Indeed, just sitting above 25c now could well dip into the 24's today......

dealhunter1985 wrote: »

I sure am

You only take a profit or make a loss the day you sell. I wonder where all the 1 euro/share before the end of the year people are. Is this an opportunity or will they drop further.

olewy

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

It goes with this share. It goes on rally's from time to time before falling back to a realistic level. For be close to 40c a share was never realistic for the bank.
At the same time 8-9c a share two years ago was undervalued.

What SP range would you say is a realistic value for BKIR?

For those that bought long at say 0.28 what are people's opinions here re hold (in hope of a rebound) or sell (to stem but realise a loss)?

quadrifoglio verde

olewy wrote: »

What SP range would you say is a realistic value for BKIR?

For those that bought long at say 0.28 what are people's opinions here re hold (in hope of a rebound) or sell (to stem but realise a loss)?

High teens maybe low 20s. If I'm buying in again though I'll be checking MA's and seeing what the long term trend for the share is. I don't think they're worth the 30+ levels that they were at recently.

I also don't think well be seeing 1 euro a share, without consolidation.
You have to keep asking relative to the value of the bank back in 2007 and the profit it was making, what's a current reasonable value on the share price.

40 c a share has it at 2/3rds it's value back in 2007, for a bank that isn't paying a dividend or making serious profits like it was back in 2007.

Thanos

.....and there we go, below the 25c mark. The question is how much further..?

MfMan

Thanos wrote: »

.....and there we go, below the 25c mark. The question is how much further..?

ISEQ in general taking a kicking; Kerry, Paddy Power, Ryanair, AIB etc. all well down. A buyer's day if you have the green.

tech

this falling apart!!!

neil.p.b

Support here at 24. 14.5 target if it breaks below.

Farmer Pudsey

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

High teens maybe low 20s. If I'm buying in again though I'll be checking MA's and seeing what the long term trend for the share is. I don't think they're worth the 30+ levels that they were at recently.

I also don't think well be seeing 1 euro a share, without consolidation.
You have to keep asking relative to the value of the bank back in 2007 and the profit it was making, what's a current reasonable value on the share price.

40 c a share has it at 2/3rds it's value back in 2007, for a bank that isn't paying a dividend or making serious profits like it was back in 2007.

At 40c/share it was 2/3 of 2007 value so at 25 it is at about 40% of 2007 value. In real terms I think at 33c/share it was worth 10 billion so it has dropped to about 7.5 billion.

I think early this year there was a lot of hype early in the year about 1 euro/share which was unrealistic, valueing it at 33 billion within 2-3 years. In reality BOI will find it hard to expand however in 2007 there was 10+ lenders in Ireland, now there is 5 if you count the Credit Union movement. Yes there will be no dividend pre 2016 maybe later, however it is in a strong position and looks like it will be the major bank in this country for a while ( the government may decide on a trade sale for AIB which might change the game). At present it represents the best value in bank shares on the Irish market. It may fall further however IMO 28-32c/share is a fair valuation.

euroboom13

With all the world central banks interference the past few years ,2007 may seem like an irrelevant yard stick, when the dust settles.

Go long

lucky john

The things that made boi a very good share to own a month ago still hold today. From the start of the year there hasn't been any news that would be considered negitive to the share price. In fact the opposite is the case. Boi is a company with huge potential. . To doubt that means you doubt the future of the country itself. The two are inextricably linked.

Why the share price has take such a hit over the last while is anybodys guess. Short selling in the US, fear of what Ross will do next, generai market weakness, time of year, stress tests, 0 interst rates, over valued to start with. It could be anyone of these or more but the fact remains as a company boi is now profitable. It is in a position to substantially grow these (mostly at our expence) in the future. And its the future that matters here. Over a longer time frame these few weeks will mean very little. Its up 100% in one year, about level from the start of year.

Hold and you will be rewarded.

beardy_smith

lucky john wrote: »

The things that made boi a very good share to own a month ago still hold today. From the start of the year there hasn't been any news that would be considered negitive to the share price. In fact the opposite is the case. Boi is a company with huge potential. . To doubt that means you doubt the future of the country itself. The two are inextricably linked.

Why the share price has take such a hit over the last while is anybodys guess. Short selling in the US, fear of what Ross will do next, generai market weakness, time of year, stress tests, 0 interst rates, over valued to start with. It could be anyone of these or more but the fact remains as a company boi is now profitable. It is in a position to substantially grow these (mostly at our expence) in the future. And its the future that matters here. Over a longer time frame these few weeks will mean very little. Its up 100% in one year, about level from the start of year.

Hold and you will be rewarded.

ryanair was a good share to own three months ago yet its down 20% from that high ( i bought today btw )

sometimes stocks get ahead of themselves and this is what happened with bank of ireland , add to that the relative shock of wilbur ross selling , i myself owned the stock at various points since it was 8 cents , i bought back in this past month at 27.7 and 27.2 but i now realise that their was no point until it became clear whether ross was going to unload more , he has that option between now and mid june , i think a 50% correction for a penny stock like bank of ireland is not so rare , therefore we could see 19 cents as the bottom , i dont think we go lower than that as the good news outweighs the bad

you need to be very smart to make the big money in stocks , the rest of us are doing well to see gains of 10% per year or thereabouts

neil.p.b

I still don't see the attraction to BKIR as an investment, i'm all for trading it but i can't see fundamentally what makes it so attractive as an invesment. It's still making losses, circa 1/2 billion last year iirc. Defaulting loans and impairment provisions aren't getting any better, i read a moodys report a while ago stating 30% of their €85 billion loan book are poor performing loans. We mightn't be in the property bubble anymore but the damages from it are most certainly still there. Would love to hear some opinions of those invested.

beardy_smith

neil.p.b wrote: »

I still don't see the attraction to BKIR as an investment, i'm all for trading it but i can't see fundamentally what makes it so attractive as an invesment. It's still making losses, circa 1/2 billion last year iirc. Defaulting loans and impairment provisions aren't getting any better, i read a moodys report a while ago stating 30% of their €85 billion loan book are poor performing loans. We mightn't be in the property bubble anymore but the damages from it are most certainly still there. Would love to hear some opinions of those invested.

the stock was trading on pure momentum for at least a year , reality is now starting to return

i dont see it going above 30 cents again in 2014 which isnt a disaster but the days of 100% gain in one year are over , that only happens after a collapse

euroboom13

I think I have more respect for bear than a bull that see`s limits.

How can anyone estimate what this company is worth, it has zero track record in its new form. How can you invest in anything and talk down your potential to someone else ,whom is already trying to belittle your judgement.

I am very bullish on this stock and it will reward those whom respect its potential, which, in my opinion is only limited by, to whatever potential comes to Europe(which will be huge, if china/$ stumble, and they will) .

neil.p.b

euroboom13 wrote: »

How can anyone estimate what this company is worth.

How can anyone invest in something that they can't value? But to answer your question - by looking at its books. And i wasn't trying to belittle your judgement.

euroboom13

neil.p.b wrote: »

How can anyone invest in something that they can't value? But to answer your question - by looking at its books. And i wasn't trying to belittle your judgement.

Nothing has normalised yet ,its books based on a zombie system/ if interest rates went up 2% they would be in a new world(considering how important turn over ,in banking). book values are a waste of time in today's pivot point !
We are enter unchartered waters.

I wasn't saying you where belittling my judgement ,I hadn`t given one, I just would like to see more conviction from investors.gla

Value Hunter

lucky john wrote: »

The things that made boi a very good share to own a month ago still hold today. From the start of the year there hasn't been any news that would be considered negitive to the share price. In fact the opposite is the case. Boi is a company with huge potential. . To doubt that means you doubt the future of the country itself. The two are inextricably linked.

Why the share price has take such a hit over the last while is anybodys guess. Short selling in the US, fear of what Ross will do next, generai market weakness, time of year, stress tests, 0 interst rates, over valued to start with. It could be anyone of these or more but the fact remains as a company boi is now profitable. It is in a position to substantially grow these (mostly at our expence) in the future. And its the future that matters here. Over a longer time frame these few weeks will mean very little. Its up 100% in one year, about level from the start of year.

Hold and you will be rewarded.

What about the €20 Billion in defaulting loans? Should we all buy and hold hoping for 40c a share and for this €20 billion to just magically disappear?

beardy_smith

euroboom13 wrote: »

I think I have more respect for bear than a bull that see`s limits.

How can anyone estimate what this company is worth, it has zero track record in its new form. How can you invest in anything and talk down your potential to someone else ,whom is already trying to belittle your judgement.

I am very bullish on this stock and it will reward those whom respect its potential, which, in my opinion is only limited by, to whatever potential comes to Europe(which will be huge, if china/$ stumble, and they will) .

been reading your posts , you were calling it a steal anywhere under 30 cents , thats 30% above where it is today , the real winners buy near the very bottom

euroboom13

beardy_smith wrote: »

been reading your posts , you were calling it a steal anywhere under 30 cents , thats 30% above where it is today , the real winners buy near the very bottom

Yes ,still a steal under 30c.
Bottom fish all you want!

Farmer Pudsey

beardy_smith wrote: »

been reading your posts , you were calling it a steal anywhere under 30 cents , thats 30% above where it is today , the real winners buy near the very bottom

Very hard to buy at the bottom and sell at the top.

beardy_smith

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Very hard to buy at the bottom and sell at the top.

the very successfull traders do , the average ones make do with moderate gains provided they are prepared to hold for long enough