BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

quadrifoglio verde

sperm_whale wrote: »

thats an incredibly broad brush statement though not that surprising as irish people seem only to think about property when it comes to investing , most americans own stocks where as a small minority of irish people own direct shares , buying stocks is no more " gambling " than buying an investment property

it can be depending on how you approach it but anyone who invests in a private pension is in reality buying stocks , provided you are willing to play a long game , buying stocks is a very prudent thing to do as inflation will eat away at savings

Change that to buying the right stocks and your spot on! I know people who put their pension into property and lost half it's cap value but still getting rent. In the long run, their monthly pension payment and rent covers the mortgage payment.

At the same time I know people who instead put their pension into blue chip banking stock and lost the lot.
Yes you can lose your shirt on property...in the short run, but in the long run you'll always come out tops.

sperm_whale

daveirl wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

most penny stocks are " pump n dump " scams , even you see strong capital gains , commisions are much higher and spreads far wider

the wolf of wall street illustrated it perfectly

Larry Wildman

There is no risk in buying a diversified basket of quality equities and holding them. Johnson & Johnson, Nestle, Diageo, Coca-Cola, Heineken, etc.

Negative real interest rates are a far greater risk for investors who are sitting on cash.

zetalambda

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

Not to rain on your parade or anything, but in 2007 when BOI had a market cap of 18 billion, it had just under 1 billion shares in issue. Today it has over 34 billion shares in issue.
Currently bank of ireland is worth 9.7 billion, or in 2007 terms, a few cents over 10 euro a share.
If we're to see the heady heights of 2007, when the bank was worth 18 billion, we'd need a share price of 55.9 cent a share.....you might want to make alternative retirement plans.

Don't worry, you're not raining on my parade. My investment in shares is only a minority part of what will make my retirement (I use this term in both posts tongue in cheek!). My BOI shares will only make up about 10% of my planned portfolio and will be the riskiest investment that I am likely to make between now and my free bus pass. Obviously I know that the value will not return to what it was in 2007 which I believe was about €22 but one thing I'm sure of is that an investment in BOI now will be more than worth it in the medium to long term.

sperm_whale

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

Change that to buying the right stocks and your spot on! I know people who put their pension into property and lost half it's cap value but still getting rent. In the long run, their monthly pension payment and rent covers the mortgage payment.

At the same time I know people who instead put their pension into blue chip banking stock and lost the lot.
Yes you can lose your shirt on property...in the short run, but in the long run you'll always come out tops.

which blue chips did those people you know put money in ?

bank of ireland is not , nor never has been a blue chip stock and even it was , sticking all ones " pension money " in a few stocks is not a pension plan , its a poorly diversified stock portfolio

blue chip stocks not only have recovered their losses since 2008 , many of them continued to keep paying dividends despite ( in some cases ) a fifty percent reduction in value , dividends are akin to rent from an investment property

im refering to the likes of coca cola , proctor and gamble , johnson and johnson , ibm , t mobile , general electric

as for property always delivering , some property will eventually deliver regardless of periodic setbacks , their are thousands of properties in this country sitting empty in corners of the country where their was no demand for them

regardless of asset choice , its important to be selective

sperm_whale

Larry Wildman wrote: »

There is no risk in buying a diversified basket of quality equities and holding them. Johnson & Johnson, Nestle, Diageo, Coca-Cola, Heineken, etc.

Negative real interest rates are a far greater risk for investors who are sitting on cash.

not if you are prepared to play a long game but its always nice to be able to buy when the market is cheap or at least cheaper , its very expensive right now , that said , low interest rates is making people chase yield

quadrifoglio verde

sperm_whale wrote: »

which blue chips did those people you know put money in

bank of ireland is not , nor never has been a blue chip stock

blue chip stocks not only have recovered their losses since 2008 , many of them continued to keep paying dividends despite ( in some cases ) a fifty percent reduction in value , dividends are akin to rent from an investment property

im refering to the likes of coca cola , proctor and gamble , johnson and johnson , ibm , t mobile , general electric

The irish banks were seen as blue chips by virtually everyone who true money into them. As were il&p, aib, Anglo. They were seen as sure bets, to always be profitable. That was their thinking. That it'd always be profitable.

sperm_whale

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

The irish banks were seen as blue chips by virtually everyone who true money into them. As were il&p, aib, Anglo. They were seen as sure bets, to always be profitable. That was their thinking. That it'd always be profitable.

they were only viewed as " blue chips " by the grossly uninformed and there is no such thing as a " sure thing "

the only company close to a " blue chip " ( in the global understanding of the term ) here is CRH , ryanair might qualify though its not global

bank of ireland is a big fish in a tiny pond , it cant be mentioned in the same breath as global financial institutions like hsbc , ubs , deutsche bank , jp morgan , wells fargo

with stocks , you need to think international as the domestic economy may from time to time tank

its all about spreading and managing risk

lucky john

sperm_whale wrote: »

they were only viewed as " blue chips " by the grossly uninformed and there is no such thing as a " sure thing "

the only company close to a " blue chip " ( in the global understanding of the term ) here is CRH , ryanair might qualify though its not global

bank of ireland is a big fish in a tiny pond , it cant be mentioned in the same breath as global financial institutions like hsbc , ubs , deutsche bank , jp morgan , wells fargo

with stocks , you need to think international as the domestic economy may from time to time tank

its all about spreading and managing risk

Add smurfitt kappa to the list of blue chip irish companies.

euroboom13

sperm_whale wrote: »

they were only viewed as " blue chips " by the grossly uninformed and there is no such thing as a " sure thing "

the only company close to a " blue chip " ( in the global understanding of the term ) here is CRH , ryanair might qualify though its not global

bank of ireland is a big fish in a tiny pond , it cant be mentioned in the same breath as global financial institutions like hsbc , ubs , deutsche bank , jp morgan , wells fargo

with stocks , you need to think international as the domestic economy may from time to time tank

its all about spreading and managing risk

Wouldn't bet the house on the above.

CRH=dependent on the USA dollar$$$,and construction is a luxury
RYANAIR=dependent on oil and safe airways(Iceland)
SMURF=south American politics and dollar

Just acknowledge the downside!

ABC101

Getting back to BoI....and hopefully I won't be using massively broad sweeping statements:pac::pac:

When do you think the Irish Govt will start unwinding its stake?

If W. Ross sold out at around 33, and then the rest at around 28 or 29, will the Irish Govt jump at 33 cent?

I'm just surmising at what could be the next development in BoI? Any body any ideas?

euroboom13

Agree....state exit eminent..33 followed by more upward movement on news.....

ABC101

euroboom13 wrote: »

Agree....state exit eminent..33 followed by more upward movement on news.....

Now that tickles my tummy!!!!!! Bring it on!!!!!!!! Yeeee...... Hawwwwwww!!!

Farmer Pudsey

State announces exit at 33 prices drop to mid 20's until after sale

euroboom13

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

State announces exit at 33 prices drop to mid 20's until after sale

The vultures that take up states stake will have carefully prepared the details before any politician gets to waffle announcement, and any wise investors will see the wisdom in saying goodbye to the clowns!!

Anytime state gets pushed further away share price rises,pudsey.

marienbad

euroboom13 wrote: »

The vultures that take up states stake will have carefully prepared the details before any politician gets to waffle announcement, and any wise investors will see the wisdom in saying goodbye to the clowns!!

Anytime state gets pushed further away share price rises,pudsey.

Steady on, without the state we wouldn't have the bank !

euroboom13

marienbad wrote: »

Steady on, without the state we wouldn't have the bank !

Without the banks we wouldn't be in this state..... lol

Read what I said ,was harsh but no offense meant ,politicians are good at trickery , which doesn't give confidence to investors!

Time for them snake oil men to return to fooling the electorate ,while our little bank goes to work!

marienbad

euroboom13 wrote: »

Without the banks we wouldn't be in this state..... lol

Read what I said ,was harsh but no offense meant ,politicians are good at trickery , which doesn't give confidence to investors!

Time for them snake oil men to return to fooling the electorate ,while our little bank goes to work!

I did read what you said and I agree the state has no place in banking, but I find it amazing how quickly we forget- the snake oil salesmen were the bankers and the inept politicians came to the rescue. Not the other way round.

Anyway its off topic.

sperm_whale

euroboom13 wrote: »

Agree....state exit eminent..33 followed by more upward movement on news.....

there will be a dump ( however brief ) when the goverment offloads

euroboom13

marienbad wrote: »

I did read what you said and I agree the state has no place in banking, but I find it amazing how quickly we forget- the snake oil salesmen were the bankers and the inept politicians came to the rescue. Not the other way round.

Anyway its off topic.

Love this country but we were swindled into standing over scandalous(deliberate) pyramid banking
Bringing a grenade into the state control wasn`t very smart .
Anglo should have been let go.

But thankfully,the grenade called boi didn't harm anyone so ,fair play Brian l..... R.i.p.

Forget... never!
(some of the politicians had as much to loose as the inept bankers)

sperm_whale

euroboom13 wrote: »

The vultures that take up states stake will have carefully prepared the details before any politician gets to waffle announcement, and any wise investors will see the wisdom in saying goodbye to the clowns!!

Anytime state gets pushed further away share price rises,pudsey.

psychology is as important as fundamentals , more so in the short term , the goverment leaving the stage is a possitive long term but it will in all likelyhood result in a brief sell off

euroboom13

sperm_whale wrote: »

there will be a dump ( however brief ) when the goverment offloads

Why?

it will be taken up by large investors which can only be a sign of confidence ????(can't see anyone taking it as bad news) correction "are you the only one whom see`s this as a bad thing"

euroboom13

sperm_whale wrote: »

psychology is as important as fundamentals , more so in the short term , the goverment leaving the stage is a possitive long term but it will in all likelyhood result in a brief sell off

Wrong!

Drop in share price as a bull trap maybe, but sell off unlikely.

Time will settle this one.
Good luck S W

Farmer Pudsey

If 15% of any company comes for sale of course there will be a drop in price. How will the government, will they tender it, will they sell through brokers or will they set a price and sell.

It makes little difference which way investors will want a cut. At 33/share it is at or near full value IMO or over it for the short to medium term. Government will want to exit before early next year I think. This will give them a chance to start offloading AIB or there stake in PTSB. No point in leaving them for next government .

If they declare at 33/share they be luck to average above 28 again IMO.

sperm_whale

euroboom13 wrote: »

Wrong!

Drop in share price as a bull trap maybe, but sell off unlikely.

Time will settle this one.
Good luck S W

what happened after wilbur ross sold , the stock dropped from 27 cents to a low in july of 23.5 cents

ive been reading your posts on bank of ireland for a while , you were calling a bottom at 29 cents around four months ago , it dropped another 20% below that

any major news will move a share in the short term as many share holders have weak hands , they will view the goverment leaving as making the bank more vulnerable , its irrelevant that there is no logic to this , im in since .265 but will not buy anymore until we pull back to around .281

euroboom13

sperm_whale wrote: »

what happened after wilbur ross sold , the stock dropped from 27 cents to a low in july of 23.5 cents

ive been reading your posts on bank of ireland for a while , you were calling a bottom at 29 cents around four months ago , it dropped another 20% below that

any major news will move a share in the short term as many share holders have weak hands , they will view the goverment leaving as making the bank more vulnerable , its irrelevant that there is no logic to this , im in since .265 but will not buy anymore until we pull back to around .281

You choose not to read back far enough ,I am in at 8cents....and I`ve been bullish through much more negative talk than you can dish out. I was told they wouldn't go above 12cents in 20yrs.
So maybe you should see what happened the last time a private investor took some equity from our state, before you try and discredit me with childishness.

euroboom13

euroboom13 wrote: »

its opinions like this that create value for risk takers...like in good days people never see a downside and on the way up ,can never see a good day(never i mean not on the near side of a decade).....negativity WILL fade and bank shares will be the first sign of possitive upside.Not saying it will be a nice one to watch but great upside!

Losses on the way down are played against profits on the way up, making the climb up easier.

definely a complete gamble but could easily multiply x5 in 2yrs...with 1st sign of crisis end.....already x2 briefly (7c /15c)

(9.4cent)

Sperm whale

---

13 June 2012

sperm_whale

euroboom13 wrote: »

You choose not to read back far enough ,I am in at 8cents....and I`ve been bullish through much more negative talk than you can dish out. I was told they wouldn't go above 12cents in 20yrs.
So maybe you should see what happened the last time a private investor took some equity from our state, before you try and discredit me with childishness.

i was in from 8.8 cents in 2012 until 23 cents in the summer of 2013 , i got back in a few months ago having been out for nearly a year , im not slamming you , you appear to be knowledgeable on stocks but i stand by what i said that a goverment offload will see the stock sell off , its gone up more than 20% in less than a full month

ABC101

sperm_whale wrote: »

what happened after wilbur ross sold , the stock dropped from 27 cents to a low in july of 23.5 cents

ive been reading your posts on bank of ireland for a while , you were calling a bottom at 29 cents around four months ago , it dropped another 20% below that

any major news will move a share in the short term as many share holders have weak hands , they will view the goverment leaving as making the bank more vulnerable , its irrelevant that there is no logic to this , im in since .265 but will not buy anymore until we pull back to around .281

No....I don't share the same view WRT W.Ross and Govt Share holders etc.

My opinion is that when W .Ross jumped ship the market got a bit jittery as investors would have a high regard for Mr Ross. They would see Mr Ross as a smart chap, good at making money, and if W.Ross is bailing out then there must be a good reason, so I'll bail out too.

However when a Govt sells their stake, the market should receive the news as positive. It means less interference in the day to day / long term running of the bank, staff numbers can be cut, branches shut down, inefficiencies reduced / eliminated etc, all these things go on to make the bank more efficient / profitable for shareholders etc.

It could also be seen as a confirmation that the bank is financially stable / able to stand on its own feet and go it alone now.

After all, it would not make sense if it sold its stake in BoI, only to go back in which a rescue / bail out / nationalisation package 12 or 18 months later. I mean that would just look very stupid because they got their sums wrong the first time etc

WRT BoI share price, I don't know what way it's going to go. Stack fundamentals are different to Market psychology (look at AIB), however BoI seems to have a little pullback every now and again, we just had one when Wilbur bailed out, there was also a small one in late July / August 2013 were the SP had risen to 22-24c, then dropped to 17 cent, then started rising again etc

Ebb and flow really. But long term...BOI is looking good, I think it will get back to what it was in 2007 (cap 18bln) and then some more perhaps 20 to 24 bln etc. as for time line....it's going to take several years, maybe 2020.

However several things remain unknown, Russians turning off the Gas, Draghi and his printing press etc etc

sperm_whale

ABC101 wrote: »

No....I don't share the same view WRT W.Ross and Govt Share holders etc.

My opinion is that when W .Ross jumped ship the market got a bit jittery as investors would have a high regard for Mr Ross. They would see Mr Ross as a smart chap, good at making money, and if W.Ross is bailing out then there must be a good reason, so I'll bail out too.

However when a Govt sells their stake, the market should receive the news as positive. It means less interference in the day to day / long term running of the bank, staff numbers can be cut, branches shut down, inefficiencies reduced / eliminated etc, all these things go on to make the bank more efficient / profitable for shareholders etc.

It could also be seen as a confirmation that the bank is financially stable / able to stand on its own feet and go it alone now.

After all, it would not make sense if it sold its stake in BoI, only to go back in which a rescue / bail out / nationalisation package 12 or 18 months later. I mean that would just look very stupid because they got their sums wrong the first time etc

WRT BoI share price, I don't know what way it's going to go. Stack fundamentals are different to Market psychology (look at AIB), however BoI seems to have a little pullback every now and again, we just had one when Wilbur bailed out, there was also a small one in late July / August 2013 were the SP had risen to 22-24c, then dropped to 17 cent, then started rising again etc

Ebb and flow really. But long term...BOI is looking good, I think it will get back to what it was in 2007 (cap 18bln) and then some more perhaps 20 to 24 bln etc. as for time line....it's going to take several years, maybe 2020.

However several things remain unknown, Russians turning off the Gas, Draghi and his printing press etc etc

the stock had quite a big pullback when wibur ross bailed , it had been recovering from a low of .251 and was above 28 when he sold , was at 27 cents the next morning and at .235 within a month