Sunday evening/Monday - Very Severe Storm

Snowbie

maquiladora wrote: »

The 12Z puts it further south but at 15:00 it looks further north on sat24 than on the GFS. Can the GFS be trusted as much at this stage or would UKMO be more accurate?

Granted we all know including the model outputs that a storm is in the making but when developed this can wobble so much so that 50miles north or south will have a different impact.
Moves north=turbulent, south=much slacker for a time.

Its no surprise that models now are changing or are slightly different to the next as it comes closer and develops, slight movements of the core is very possible.
There is no storm as yet but intensification is under way.
12z is showing a SSE windflow ahead of the warm front assocciated with the LP and the 18z should confirm where the strongest winds should be but without a wobble if there is going to be one?

maquiladora

She's starting to look like a beast :eek:

Kippure

maquiladora wrote: »

She's starting to look like a beast :eek:

Thats cool looking.

ninebeanrows

Wednesday's storm is looking more and more severe for this part of the world



GFS suggesting wind gusts could reach 70kts

It's that type of system that usually brings severe winds to these parts.

when will the eye of the storm be over Dublin?
I always get headaches when the pressure is very low and I have an exam tomorrow

Wertz

Is this the same system that's dumped all the winter weather in the central and NE US over the last few days?

Paddy.1

Deleted User wrote: »

when will the eye of the storm be over Dublin?
I always get headaches when the pressure is very low and I have an exam tomorrow

between around 9 and 12 tomorrow morning. Good luck in the exam.

lostexpectation

doens't seem too crazy here , but cool how the page updates itself quickly, http://www.lahinchsurfshop.com/lahinch/magico.asp?magpage=9

tramore that more south
http://www.tramoresurfshop.com/

Damomanye

Sky news reporting that their Governments emergency committee is to meet to discuss the impending storm

Wertz

In fairness it looks like the English Channel and the SE coast are going to take a hammering from this, compounded by the spring tides.

gerbilgranny

'Waiting for the Hurricane' by our own lovely Chris de Burgh deserves a few airplays this evening, then.

tony1212

hey guys will this storm do any damage around the limerick area, and if it does what time is the storm supposed to start.

JanuarySnowstor

The Met Office in the UK now prediciting hurricane force 12 for Shannon:eek:

Kippure

Wouldnt surprise me if it started as snow. Dublin airport has a tempeture of 6c and a dew point of minus 1. Continues to fall away.

Snowbie

JanuarySnowstor wrote:

The Met Office in the UK now prediciting hurricane force 12 for Shannon

Thats Shannon shipping area i reckon.

Damomanye

tony1212 wrote: »

hey guys will this storm do any damage around the limerick area, and if it does what time is the storm supposed to start.

i really dont see any problems from this system for our area of Limerick.A few downed trees perhaps around the county imho. other than that, a miserable blustry day in the city.

Gonzo

I think this has been blown out of proportion as well, I think it will be very windy but nothing out of the ordinary that we havent seen over past few years, it might be as windy as some of the storms we had around the very windy period of November-December 2006. I think Dublin and the East Coast in general will just see about 30-60mph winds, more like 60 to 85mph around Cork/Kerry.

mike65

Shush! You can't let the air out before its been pumped up fully.

Mike.

Sierra Oscar

Gonzo wrote: »

I think this has been blown out of proportion as well, I think it will be very windy but nothing out of the ordinary that we havent seen over past few years, it might be as windy as some of the storms we had around the very windy period of November-December 2006. I think Dublin and the East Coast in general will just see about 30-60mph winds, more like 60 to 85mph around Cork/Kerry.

Time will tell. . .;)

Gaijin

:eek:

I'm supposed to be flying to London tomorrow evening, shall I write my will and have the sick bags at the ready or has this storms potential been exaggerated.

Cloudy with a slight wind outside my window at the moment!

DMC

Current UK shipping forecast...


Lundy, Fastnet
Southwesterly 5 to 7 increasing gale 8 to storm 10 then veering northwesterly, occasionally violent storm 11 in Fastnet, perhaps violent storm 11 later in Lundy. Rough or very rough becoming high or very high, occasionally phenomenal later in Fastnet. Showers. Good becoming poor

Irish Sea
Southwest 5 backing south gale 8 to storm 10, becoming cyclonic 6 to gale 8 later. Moderate or rough, becoming very rough for a time. Showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor

Shannon
Southerly veering northwesterly gale 8 to storm 10, increasing violent storm 11 or hurricane force 12 for a time. High, becoming very high or phenomenal for a time. Showers. Good becoming very poor

Rockall, Malin
South 5 to 7 becoming cyclonic gale 8 to storm 10 then northwest 6 to gale 8. Very rough or high, occasionally very high in Rockall. Rain or showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor

Sierra Oscar

Hmm...no mention of the storms in RTE News so far, yet Sky News have crews in Dublin reporting about the coming storm!

DMC

There is the difference.... RTÉ will look out the window and/or rely on Met Éireann, Sky News have hours to fill

Wertz

Must remember to listen to the 12.50am shipping forecast tonight...nothing like hearing 11s and 12s mentioned as the rain belts off the window.

"Phenomenal" on sea condition...never heard that term used that I recall...

Damomanye

probably because Sky like to sensationalise while RTE know this isnt a major event.

DMC

The Shipping Forecast on Radio 4 never read out the sea states, Wertz, but the given forecast by the Met Office contains it. But phenomenal, thought that was just used by rappers...

Damomanye

Wertz wrote: »

Must remember to listen to the 12.50am shipping forecast tonight...nothing like hearing 11s and 12s mentioned as the rain belts off the window.

"Phenomenal" on sea condition...never heard that term used that I recall...

i remember it (Phenomenal) being mentioned in early December during the last event like this. December 6th was it?. That event was declared a storm in a tea cup.

wotisthere

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Interesting Chart Snowbie, this one with the same time period from the ECMWF webside seems to be unaligned with that one you posted, or I am reading it wrong? I can't tell. This one here looks a lot less promising:



I may need to get glasses..

where are we ?

Wertz

The forecasts don't, you're right...it's the current reports from inshore waters that comes after it that I've heard sea conditions mentioned on...still don't recall that description being used.

Just looking at the RGB airmass loop on eumetsat....the trough pushing in on the western part of that system is huge and freezing (red area)...lot of stratospheric air plunging into the back of that LP. Plenty more winding up to do before it lands...

Trogdor

Central Pressure down to 949mb now.
http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?hour=0&lang=en&map=AtlN