Sunday evening/Monday - Very Severe Storm

squonk

Sounds like ME are hedging their bets a little. Just saw Ev after the news just now saying the LP center will pass directly over us or just to the north. Sounds like they're busing both possible outcomes but not going one way or the other.

M.T. Cranium

Yes to all questions related to my posts above. Image continues to update and will soon begin to show the circulation southeast of Greenland where pressures are forecast to drop at a very rapid pace tonight.

If the models have this nailed down now, I think the worst will be around the southwest coast, probably the peak gusts around Galway would be around 70-80 mph and then increasing gradually to near 100 mph around Kerry then back to 70-80 mph for Cork. As many are saying here, Dublin may be spared from very strong winds except for early and late in the event when there could be some gusts to 60 mph. Will be odd to be in the northern half of Ireland under this very deep low with almost calm winds for quite some time Monday -- if all this is correct. With this rapid development though, we should be cautious because a fairly significant error could be hidden away until the last minute. I don't know if there has ever been a low quite this deep making contact with Ireland, at least since 1839.

mike65

Deleted User wrote: »

That kind of geographical inacuracy bugs me just like refering to us as part of the British isles.Technically we are not.

Google says otherwise

Mike.

kerry1960

Deleted User wrote: »

I'd like to point out that the UK is not our mainland!
We are our own mainland.
That kind of geographical inacuracy bugs me just like refering to us as part of the British isles.Technically we are not.

That said-Tonights ECM prog's max gusts in this storm at 90mph over the SW of Ireland and that is stronger that any progged gust in the UK but weaker than some of the lower resolution models were progging earlier in the week.

We are now well into high resolution in respect of detailing this storm, so it does appear to be looking dangerous but a tad less dangerous than previously.

However to put this in context..Winds above 90 mph versus winds above 100mph in terms of the harm they can do are pretty similar.

black briar ,this reply concerns the first paragraph of your reply , i do'nt doubt your superior knowlege/ understanding of meteorology , but are you trying to wind me up or what , what the fcuk are you on about , what's wrong with my post ,ffs after 40+ long years on this planet i am perfectly aware there is a difference between uk/irl ,perhaps if you carefully and slowly read my post again i was asking for a simple reply to a simple question , ie , were the people over in netweather forecasting ; overall max windspeed from this weather systm / or max windspeed in scot wales eng ,


already had one mini disaster this week and funny enough i was wondering about the chances of another one .

Paddy.1

ECMWF's latest 12z run seems sure that the low will cross over north-central Ireland mid day monday: (sorry about bad quality)



Worst winds confined to the south again with a possiblitly of a blast for all of us as low move out of the way. Interest for me at this stage on tuesday night/wednesday for possibley more of a widespread event, if less severe.

Snowbie

12z and 18z GFS for midday monday. 18z has the centre across the majority of the country with cyclonic variable winds, later winds blowing in from the west.
The SW looks stormy throughout.






Sunday 12z and 18z will paint a better picture for the track, firstly for the southerly gales(12z) and the track and high probable storm winds(18z).
Untill then i think this storm depression can still wobble north or south.

Mullaghteelin

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I don't know if there has ever been a low quite this deep making contact with Ireland, at least since 1839.

8 Dec 1886, 927.2mb was recorded in Belfast, with a disputed 922mb recorded in Omagh. http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/british_weather_in_december.htm

Cant find any better info at the moment, but Im fairly sure theres been other storms that have given us pressure readings down into the 960s (at least) in the not-too-distant past.

Snowbie

968.1mb Nov 2006 is my lowest in the last couple of years. I'm sure i will record much lower on monday.

Paddy.1

Mullaghteelin wrote: »

8 Dec 1886, 927.2mb was recorded in Belfast, with a disputed 922mb recorded in Omagh. http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/british_weather_in_december.htm

Certainly looked like an impressive day alright across Ireland:



Them were the days!!

DMC

What has been the lowest recorded pressure in the North Atlantic in recent years?

Does really low pressure indicate stronger than force 12?

Sponge Bob

DMC wrote: »

Does really low pressure indicate stronger than force 12?

Yes, some modelling or interpretation of the 1839 storm ( a once in 300 years event ) surmised that the pressure may have been as low as 918hpa . Category 3 hurricane strength winds.

I slept through the 1987 'hurricane' in London, 958 was the pressure there

A category 3 hurricane typically has a pressure between 945 and 965, this is predicted at possibly 935.

source

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987

Sierra Oscar

So, whats the latest?:o

squonk

She's winding up, just to the west of Iceland you can see it starting to form. Viewable on Sat24.com now. Going to be an interesting day!

darkman2

There is going to be a ferocious vacuum at the center of this depression but as long as the center passes across the country it will spare us hurricane force gusts which will be just off the South coast. I dont see this storm creating too much damage for the vast majority of us.

squonk

Looking at what's happening, it's crossing the atlantic pretty sharpish. It still has to form properly into a storm. What time do you reckon it'll start to affect us? My gut is telling me between midday and 3 tomorrow it should start to get windy. Not sure if I'm right though.

darkman2

squonk wrote: »

Looking at what's happening, it's crossing the atlantic pretty sharpish. It still has to form properly into a storm. What time do you reckon it'll start to affect us? My gut is telling me between midday and 3 tomorrow it should start to get windy. Not sure if I'm right though.

It will start tonight. Although I dont think anywhere away from the South coast will see anything particularly bad. There will be some coastal flooding but thats it IMO.

M.T. Cranium

For Monday, I would agree in general with what Darkman2 is saying, but the 00z GFS run does slightly upgrade the storm's potential so if you're in the west or south, be forewarned, it could be nasty around Monday morning. So far the rest of Ireland seems to be spared by the close approach of the slack winds around the deep centre. However, the new wrinkle seems to be this, the storm now hitting the northeast U.S. tags along behind the Monday storm and crosses northern Scotland, so that all of Ireland (and most of the U.K.) can expect a second period of very strong winds with that, from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon. That may turn out to be the more significant wind event for most people in Ireland and the U.K., so Monday is turning into appetizers.

ch750536

squonk wrote: »

She's winding up, just to the west of Iceland you can see it starting to form. Viewable on Sat24.com now. Going to be an interesting day!

Where?

Snowbie

GFS is maintaing the track on the storm consistently and very surprisingly over the last couple of days. It suggest's Dublin will escape severity of the winds on monday and tuesday.

The south has still got the worst winds for monday. I'm still not buying the track untill much closer to the time T12 or the 12z today.

DOCARCH

DMC wrote: »

What has been the lowest recorded pressure in the North Atlantic in recent years?

Does really low pressure indicate stronger than force 12?

Just to clarify Sponge Bob's response above. Low pressure is only half the story.

The strength of the wind associated with the low pressure is all to do with the gradient rather than the depth of the low itself, i.e., very basically, the depth of the low pressure relative to the adjoining high(er) pressure and the distance bewteen the two.

A deep area of low pressure in close proximity to an area of high pressure will result in a steep gradient between the two and therefore very strong winds. However you could have the same deep area of low pressue with high(er) pressure centres around further away and this could result in slacker winds as the gradient would be relatively shallow.

A lot of media/'red tops' focus incorrectly on the depth of the low pressure being the be all and end all.

Hope that helps explain a bit!

Sponge Bob

DOCARCH wrote: »

A lot of media/'red tops' focus incorrectly on the depth of the low pressure being the be all and end all.

True, its a good indicator though. The GFS from wetterzentrale has a different chart which seems to indicate

1. the south coast gets the worst of the storm.

2. The 'follow up' storm on Tuesday MAY WELL BE WORSE for most of us.

No wonder the Met Office is waiting till the last minute.

I am looking at the wind speed indicator figures not the pressure charts , these are on wetterzentrale in German , go to

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Click on 500HpA Stromlinien ( 'power lines' is a crude translation)

Then click the number of hours out from the forecast , eg 60 or 72 or whatever

I attach the 00:00 prediction for midday monday and also for 6pm tuesday so thats the 36 and the 66 as I write .

maquiladora

Hold onto your hats...

kerry1960

kerry1960 wrote: »

black briar ,this reply concerns the first paragraph of your reply , i do'nt doubt your superior knowlege/ understanding of meteorology , but are you trying to wind me up or what , what the fcuk are you on about , what's wrong with my post ,ffs after 40+ long years on this planet i am perfectly aware there is a difference between uk/irl

I was simply correcting you on the use of the term mainland UK with reference to where we are.
It is an incorrect term to use.
This is an independent country and has been for decades.
The use of the term mainland implies dependency and that is the inacuracy.We are not a dependency of a foreign country.

mike65 wrote:

[FONT=arial,sans-serif][/FONT]Google says otherwise

Yeah but Google says when I search for my name , that I'm a member of my local sailing club.Thats also inacurate.I havent been a member for years.
For the record,there is a province on this island that is British territory,the island is not.Thats been the case since 1947,when the term "british isles"
Ceased to include this island.

To drag a more meterological perspective in to this,a certain RTÉ forecaster was actually removed from their broadcasts a few moons ago for persistant annoying use of the term "British Isles".

Thats all I have to say on the matter as it's off topic really.

On topic,and I notice that many local authorities on the East and South coasts seem to be asleep compared to their Dublin counterparts(sand bagging etc) in terms of making preparations for what is coming.

Snowbie

With regards to sandbagging and the likes here in Dublin, i know the east wall area and Clontarf are at a threat maybe from the initial southerly winds but I think the councils are focusing on the wrong part of the country tbh.The wind will not be blowing onshore here at all, in fact the wind when the core passes will aid in blowing against the spring tide.Its good to see them taking measures for a change but the councils should focus more on the southern counties.

Edit: Have made a thread for satellite loops/shots for the approaching storms [thread=2055251663]here[/thread]

Yeah I did actually mean to emphasise southern coasts in that.
There will be an initial problem though I think in parts of Dublin and the East when that wind is south East.
There are actually parts of the East aswell that jut out into the sea that have "south" facing local coasts-though not prone to the full strength of the drift,I'd imagine with a storm like this one there will be a lot of turbulence even in harbours.

Danno

IONA - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Isles_naming_dispute#Islands_of_the_North_Atlantic_.28IONA.29 (Islands Of the North Atlantic) would be a more suitable term than the british Isles which is itself disputable: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Isles_naming_dispute

mike65

Snappy!

Speaking of snaps I imagine anyone in the south with a solid dish clamped to thier chimney stack might wonder if they should take it down if possible by the sounds of it.

Mike.

Snowbie

This thread is being blown off topic.

6z has the core perfectly overhead in the Dublin area on its track.
I know the storms are dangerous can destroy peoples livelyhoods, property etc but these are natures power and fury and can be exciting and spectacuar to witness for the most part but for cryin out loud this county of mine misses out on everything. Just to experience one full blown storm without having to drive to experience it would save myself on alot on petrol these days.

DOCARCH

Snowbie wrote: »

With regards to sandbagging and the likes here in Dublin, i know the east wall area and Clontarf are at a threat maybe from the initial southerly winds but I think the councils are focusing on the wrong part of the country tbh.The wind will not be blowing onshore here at all, in fact the wind when the core passes will aid in blowing against the spring tide.Its good to see them taking measures for a change but the councils should focus more on the southern counties.

Edit: Have made a thread for satellite loops/shots for the approaching storms [thread=2055251663]here[/thread]

The problem in Dublin re: flooding will not necessarily be anything to do with wind or rain - it's the low pressure that is the problem!

Sea level rises approx. 1cm with every 1mb drop in air pressure so for example if the low pressure centre is say 950mb and this coincides with the higher than usual spring tide at lunchtime tomorrow, the sea level will be approx. 0.5 metres higher than the estimated height of this high spring tide (heights of tides are calculated, afaik, at standard pressure of 1000mb) in addition any sort of high winds off the south coast could stop or back up the ebbing tide.

So it could be a lovely and calm around Dublin tomorrow lunchtime but we could still have a serious flooding problem.

RuggieBear

So when is the high tide in Dublin? Live in Sandymount. Might wander over and see how high the dodder gets.

OT: British Isles is a geographical term AFAIK...much like the Irish Sea. But the mainland bit pisses me off too.