Sunday evening/Monday - Very Severe Storm

DOCARCH

RuggieBear wrote: »

So when is the high tide in Dublin? Live in Sandymount. Might wander over and see how high the dodder gets.

OT: British Isles is a geographical term AFAIK...much like the Irish Sea. But the mainland bit pisses me off too.

I think high tide is at around midnight tonight and then again around 1pm tomoorrow - could get really interesting in the city centre. I have seen the Liffey within a foot of the the top of the quay wall (around the IFSC/City Quay) if the water breaches the top of the quay walls there will obviously be absolute chaos! Upper quays are more protected by the quay walls.

In addition, obviously if we get heavy rain overnight, this will add to the problem as it will swell the levels of the Dodder, Liffey and Tolka.

RuggieBear

I'm glad i'm not in the Dept of Marine any more as I'd have to have been in today checking the models and issuing the notices

Any estimates on air pressure at 12.43pm (Dublin High tide today) and wind direction?

Just googled this up:

http://www.sailing.ie/dynamic/pdf/Ti...March%2008.pdf

DOCARCH

RuggieBear wrote: »

I'm glad i'm not in the Dept of Marine any more as I'd have to have been in today checking the models and issuing the notices

Just checked - high tides for Dublin for March 10th are 12:57am - height 4.05 m and 1:12pm - height 4.29m

The 1.12pm high tide being the real problem, as mentioned above, this very high spring tide looks like coinciding with the low pressure centre.

RuggieBear

Yeah that will be the problem one alright...I'll be at work in Blanch so i'll miss all the excitement on the coast...that's why I'm wondering about today's? lol

DOCARCH

RuggieBear wrote: »

Yeah that will be the problem one alright...I'll be at work in Blanch so i'll miss all the excitement on the coast...that's why I'm wondering about today's? lol

High tide today is at 12.30pm but the pressure today will be relatively high compared to tomorrow so even though todays tide will be marginally higher than tomorrows, in reality tomorrows high tide will higher........if you know what I mean!!! :rolleyes:

Snake Plisken

mike65 wrote: »

Snappy!

Speaking of snaps I imagine anyone in the south with a solid dish clamped to thier chimney stack might wonder if they should take it down if possible by the sounds of it.

Mike.

I'm in Lucan here and I have a 1.2mtr Channel Master solid Dish bolted to my back garden wall, always freak out in knowing what way to point the dish so that it does not get the full force of any wind and take off, House is south facing so some shield from southerly winds currently pointing to 28Deg East, just wondering would I be better off moving it up to 1 Deg West? Any help would be appreciated

ninebeanrows

The storm really does not look at all concerning.

Granted it will be a monster, the strong winds will be off the south coast.

I expect to see some gusts from 60-70mph in the south and along the passage of the cold front but nothing more.

Tuesday night, Wednesday looks alot more threatening.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.png

ch750536

UK MO has downgraded

ninebeanrows

Gonna be interesting to be able to look straight up into a 950mb low for people in Dublin tomorrow though!

But the strongest winds looks like staying offshore to our south.

The cold front will still bring gusts to 65 knots or 70mph

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

The storm really does not look at all concerning.

Granted it will be a monster, the strong winds will be off the south coast.

I expect to see some gusts from 60-70mph in the south and along the passage of the cold front but nothing more.

Tuesday night, Wednesday looks alot more threatening.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.png

Thats because latest model output and particularally the UKMO have moved the low much further south giving at worst a gale over most of the country at times but often just slack winds as the low is wide,meaning that for the bulk of the "storm" , we'll have anticyclonic variable winds.
We'll see.

As regards tuesday and wenesday,I'd take a grain of salt there too because if the models were rubbish at that range deciding the track of this low (2 or 3 days ago making it look bad just like what you are looking at now for tuesday/Wens) what makes you think they'll be any better with the track of the next one?

These deep storms have minds of their own and can at the last minute move where ever they want depending on now unknown variables.
Thats what got Michael Fish in so much trouble back in October '87 - a last minute extra deepening and track change.

Kippure

FArming forecast in 10 minutes. Dont miss it on rte1

ninebeanrows

What a larf! Must be a slow news day.

Never heard a weather event make the 2nd headline when it hasnt even arrived.

There will be lots of people giving out to the Met tomorrow, but that's unfair because the storm was has just been moved further and further south in recent runs.

It's a heck of a storm and should look awesome on the sat pics.

But the wind won't be too much, just a gale at times.

lostexpectation

need more weather cams, would like to be able to see the coast road/dublin bay

Darwin

These deep storms have minds of their own and can at the last minute move where ever they want depending on now unknown variables.
Thats what got Michael Fish in so much trouble back in October '87 - a last minute extra deepening and track change.

Well I would say forecasting accuracy has improved in line with computing power in the intervening 20 years so I would imagine the met service can be fairly confident about an event that is less than 12 hours away.
Farming forecast puts the strongest winds on Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning to the north of the country.

Trogdor

lostexpectation wrote: »

need more weather cams, would like to be able to see the coast road/dublin bay

And a few on the Kerry coast, those 50ft waves should look awesome.

nacho libre

As i expected, despite the ramping up of it in some quarters, this storm would turn out to be a dampsquid for most of us. If the farming forecast can be relied upon next weekend should be interesting!
Perhaps, our last flirt with winter!!

Paddy.1

nacho libre wrote: »

As i expected, despite the ramping up of it in some quarters, this storm would turn out to be a dampsquid for most of us. If the farming forecast can be relied upon next weekend should be interesting!
Perhaps, our last flirt with winter!!

Agree, next weekend is not without interest. We are still likely to get a bit of a breeze this side Nacho tonight and tomorrow afternoon, but certainly nothing we are not used to already. Could be more interesting, especially for you on tuesday night/ wendnesday morning. Time will tell!!

Damomanye

could someone who saw it please sum up what the farming forecast siad about this incoming low? i didnt see it. cheers

Kippure

Damomanye wrote: »

could someone who saw it please sum up what the farming forecast siad about this incoming low? i didnt see it. cheers

Very wet and very windy all day tomorrow.

ninebeanrows

The storm is undergoing rapid intensification at the moment and seem to be positioned as forecast.

kerry1960

Deleted User wrote: »

I was simply correcting you on the use of the term mainland UK with reference to where we are.
It is an incorrect term to use.
This is an independent country and has been for decades.
The use of the term mainland implies dependency and that is the inacuracy.We are not a dependency of a foreign country.Yeah but Google says when I search for my name , that I'm a member of my local sailing club.Thats also inacurate.I havent been a member for years.
For the record,there is a province on this island that is British territory,the island is not.Thats been the case since 1947,when the term "british isles"
Ceased to include this island.

To drag a more meterological perspective in to this,a certain RTÉ forecaster was actually removed from their broadcasts a few moons ago for persistant annoying use of the term "British Isles".

Thats all I have to say on the matter as it's off topic really.

On topic,and I notice that many local authorities on the East and South coasts seem to be asleep compared to their Dublin counterparts(sand bagging etc) in terms of making preparations for what is coming.

no problem mate just a slight misunderstanding all around, i am tempted to use the
phrase 'storm in a teacup' ,:D .if this storm comes off tomorrow the sw of eire could end up directly connected to cornwall anyway ,:eek:

Paddy.1

Latest ECM chart for midnight tonight:



First wave of winds crossing the country.

Latest ecm for tuesday night:



A possible more widespread squall.

ch750536

Wind changed just now to a more southerly.

Gonzo

so has this storm being downgraded over Ireland to just a normal windy day with all the dangerous winds off the coast to the south? I hope so, im not really a fan of windy weather.

maquiladora

Isn't it too early to try and downgrade this considering a wobble northward over the coming hours could change what areas are impacted.

Snowbie

maquiladora wrote: »

Isn't it too early to try and downgrade this considering a wobble northward over the coming hours could change what areas are impacted.

12z will be rolling out soon enough and will be a 90% probability of the track. It can still wobble but looking likely that a landfall over Mayo and track over Dublin.

Snowbie

Snowbie wrote: »

12z will be rolling out soon enough and will be a 90% probability of the track. It can still wobble but looking likely that a landfall over Mayo and track over Dublin.

12z is out and the track is exactly what i said above and a slight downgrade on winds even for the SW for midday monday. Still strong down there but a noticeable decrease almost countrywide. The eye if we can call it that will pass directly over Dublin with slack cyclonic winds.

Pressure estimated at 956-960mb when over Dublin noon monday.

ninebeanrows

12z GFS suggest same track perhaps even 25 miles further south.

Although i dont know if the GFS at this stage is the best source of information.

What look certain is that from

The Irish sea tonight will be very windy, mean windspeeds of around 80/90 km/hr with gusts to 120/130 km/hr between 10pm and 3am tonight.

maquiladora

Snowbie wrote: »

12z will be rolling out soon enough and will be a 90% probability of the track. It can still wobble but looking likely that a landfall over Mayo and track over Dublin.

The 12Z puts it further south but at 15:00 it looks further north on sat24 than on the GFS. Can the GFS be trusted as much at this stage or would UKMO be more accurate?

Paddy.1

Looks like latest GFS has pressure forecast to fall to 952 mb directly over me at 6am tomorrow morning. Will be interesting to see if it is right. Expected to fill a bit as it moves eastwards. Certainly some sort of vacuming effect will be felt tomorrow morning around the county.