Sunday evening/Monday - Very Severe Storm

darkman2

Potentially stormy weather coming for Monday all the models seem to indicate. Its likely to turn very wet and extremely windy for a time. There is also the chance of some wintry weather aswell. It is going to turn very cold through Sunday and Monday.



Potential for disruption. Charts later....:)

kerry1960

darkman2 wrote: »

Potentially stormy weather coming for Monday all the models seem to indicate. Its likely to turn very wet and extremely windy for a time. There is also the chance of some wintry weather aswell. It is going to turn very cold through Sunday and Monday.



Potential for disruption. Charts later....:)

stormy is never good news ....... spring still on hold then .

Supercell

Some proper weather here in the east would be nice, westies getting all the fun of late!

Snowbie

Now for the most terrifying chart of the decade. A 935mb monster:eek:
Ireland is under there somewhere.

Paddy.1

Interesting Chart Snowbie, this one with the same time period from the ECMWF webside seems to be unaligned with that one you posted, or I am reading it wrong? I can't tell. This one here looks a lot less promising:



I may need to get glasses..

Snowbie

There similar Paddy ,
Follow the 980mb isobar, it brings it over SE UK on both and the 970mb isobar over our SE on both.
Also the two charts are ECMWF, one using different graphics to the other with your's showing the 850mb wind speed isotachs.

35m/s just off shore from you,that is just under 80mph.

Mothman

Paddy.1 wrote: »

This one here looks a lot less promising:

I think I'll be happier with something less promising :eek:

Whatever about liking stormy weather. I don't want sub 950mb near me, never mind a sub 940mb

darkman2

Not just the winds though

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1082.png


Steep thermal gradient and a definate snow risk in places.

Trogdor

darkman2 wrote: »

Not just the winds though

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1082.png


Steep thermal gradient and a definate snow risk in places.

Indeed, would be touch and go stuff
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.png

Supercell

Maybe some snow at the back edge very high up, very unlikely lower than about 500 metres apart from localised sleet.
Certainly nothing lying imho below about 800 metres.

That said many years ago ( about 25 years roughly) I remember in mid April a setup not unlike this gave pouring cold rain in Dublin and a couple of feet in the mountains (according to a delivery guy I was chatting to when collecting trolleys in Williams Supermarket in Killiney shopping centre) which then melted rapidly in the warm spring sunshine, I'd take that though.

I remember looking at the thermometer in the back garden and couldn't believe that it was pissing rain at 1°C, My ma told me to stop being so silly and help get the shopping in from the car

Mothman

Mothman wrote: »

I think I'll be happier with something less promising :eek:

Whatever about liking stormy weather. I don't want sub 950mb near me, never mind a sub 940mb

Agreed.
Getting excited about a 940mb storm bearing down on you is just plain wreckless.
The storm probably will develop but it mightn't track near us or be as big/deep as is suggested now.
Chances of heavy snow at sea level from it would be poor to none in my opinion.
Theres too much mid atlantic mild muck mixed in.
So getting excited about that aspect of it is a waste of time too.

ninebeanrows

Longfield wrote: »

Maybe some snow at the back edge very high up, very unlikely lower than about 500 metres apart from localised sleet.
Certainly nothing lying imho below about 800 metres.

That said many years ago ( about 25 years roughly) I remember in mid April a setup not unlike this gave pouring cold rain in Dublin and a couple of feet in the mountains (according to a delivery guy I was chatting to when collecting trolleys in Williams Supermarket in Killiney shopping centre) which then melted rapidly in the warm spring sunshine, I'd take that though.

I remember looking at the thermometer in the back garden and couldn't believe that it was pissing rain at 1°C, My ma told me to stop being so silly and help get the shopping in from the car

GFS output at 18z does indicate snow for Ireland early Monday, right down to low levels

temps and dews indicate snowfall

rc28

what kind of wind gusts would we be talking about if the worst chart (935mb) were to come off?

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

GFS output at 18z does indicate snow for Ireland early Monday, right down to low levels

temps and dews indicate snowfall

Unreliable though-the best you can hope for is a sleety mess.I know you liked your snow shower the other evening but it was a fluke and how long did it last?
What you really need is a few inches and you ain't going to see that looking at the mish mash of an airmass involved here.

@rc28 - if that storm crossed the country at sub 950 - you would be looking at windspeeds well in excess of 80mph sustained and frequent gusts above 100mph.
Nasty-very nasty.

Paddy.1

Deleted User wrote: »

Agreed.
Getting excited about a 940mb storm bearing down on you is just plain wreckless.
.

Why? although it is unlikely to happen the way models are suggesting now, what is wrong with wanting the storm. I can't agree that it is "wreakless". I suppose each to our own.

Secondly, just because the pressure is 940mb, doesn't really mean anything. I remember about a few years ago a depression over Ireland of about 959 mb brought nothing but the usual moderate wind and rain.
(can't remember month or year, but maybe Mothman has some archieves).?

Gonzo

I hope this turns out not to be nearly as bad as whats been said here, I like freak weather but not freak/bad winds coupled with cold and rain.

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

Agreed.
Getting excited about a 940mb storm bearing down on you is just plain wreckless.
The storm probably will develop but it mightn't track near us or be as big/deep as is suggested now.
Chances of heavy snow at sea level from it would be poor to none in my opinion.
Theres too much mid atlantic mild muck mixed in.
So getting excited about that aspect of it is a waste of time too.

BB I have to disagree with you here - every single potential frontal snow event is marginal and always has the same 'mish - mash' of airmasses. I like the 18z from a snow point of view but its only one run.

nacho libre

it'll be interesting to see how this unfolds.

Mothman

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Secondly, just because the pressure is 940mb, doesn't really mean anything. I remember about a few years ago a depression over Ireland of about 959 mb brought nothing but the usual moderate wind and rain.
(can't remember month or year, but maybe Mothman has some archieves).?

23rd Jan 2001,
Belmullet 957.5 mb
Knock 958.1 mb

Highest gust of month 66mph at Malin Head.

With respect, there's a massive difference between 959mb and 940mb.

Your general point is right, its not the pressure, but the gradient, but we are very unlikely to have 940mb depression without a very steep gradient.

There is high pressure to south giving steep gradient to south of depression. It may be the case that this depression will track across Ireland pushing strongest winds off south coast.

It may take the usual track of staying off NW coast and the usual suspects (Belmullet and Malin head) getting the strongest winds.

If it tracks along north coast then the strongest winds will be across most of country.

The last major storm in my area was probably Dec 1999.

There was practically one a year during those times.

Snowbie

Surprisingly, there is 4 models in agreement about this storm on Monday. However it is still 4 days away and the track can change somewhat.
Though most MET sites are hinting at the severe potential for Monday.
The track atm is forecast to move right in across the Northern half of the country with the strongest winds across the southern and western flank.

Snow will be also be an added feature with high ground at definite risk but low lying areas later as the 0c isotherm expected to below 500ft aswell as low 500mb heights.

Well worth model watching and watch this space as it is probably the most significant storm in years if this materialises.
Still possible downgrades and room for change.

Snowbie

Check out the giant spiderweb:eek:

darkman2

The prospect of snow remains and by proxy with the strong winds blizzard conditions are possible. The 850 temps may not be that impressive but the 500mb temps are compensating on the runs atm

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=57561



So along with the storm if snow does fall this could be attrocious

nacho libre

Paddy, what pressure reading had the storm in December in 1996. I 'm asking because i recall a storm during the nineties that passed a couple of hundred miles to the northwest of Belmullet and it was as low as 939. Perhaps that was it?

force eleven

Interesting read on the potential and I emphasise that word for Monday courtesy of John Mason over at TWO.

http://www.geologywales.co.uk/storms/march08.htm

nacho libre

so, if it tracks further south than expected what sort of gusts are we talking about inland?

squonk

Thanks for pointing to that force_eleven! I normally get pretty excited about storms but I'm not really up for this one. It doesn't look god. High winds are great but if they're dangerously high, such that anyone can end up injured or even dead and not just people who were looking for touble inthe first place, then that's quite a different thing.

Gonzo

hope this doesnt happen or turns out alot less severe, I dont like damange or injurys caused by high winds.

My spidey sense is saying no snow from this.
Ha edit I see someone else has posted John Mason of Torro's excelent analysis - no need for me to repeat the link.

It's unlikely to pan out like that 06z run but somethings up,something potentially dangerous but where,we shall see.

Paddy.1

nacho libre wrote: »

Paddy, what pressure reading had the storm in December in 1996. I 'm asking because i recall a storm during the nineties that passed a couple of hundred miles to the northwest of Belmullet and it was as low as 939. Perhaps that was it?

I actually don't have that information at hand Nacho, but will root it out next time I am in nuig. Calling on Mothman here again!! I think I remember that gale you are on about, specifically the blue lightning that accompanied it. I could be wrong about the time as well, but sounds about right.


Mothman, you are right of course about depth and gradients. I tend go with gradients though. I wasn't around at the time, but for those here who might remember "Debbie" in the early 60's, one of the biggest windstorms of the 20th century to hit our wee shores, pressure in the central low at the peak of the storm was around 970mb as it past over the Connaght area. It was the the gradient aftermath that caused great damage around the country.

Yes on the gradient paddy1.
Mind you the models aren't short on tight isobars with their current fairly well agreed solutions-so the track is crucial and could be worrysome,very worrysome.

Are ye talking about the Xmas storms of a mid to late 90's?
I remember the main BBC news head story at the height of the first of those (one xmas and then the other was the following xmas) was 100,000 homes with out electricity in Ireland.

Snowbie

Snow be very marginal for the top 2/3 of Ireland if the core is to travel close to the North coast/into Scotland as indicated on the 12Z. The south coast would have the best shot of snow at low levels but mountains would do well out of this.



Also trailing this potent storm on Monday is another storm for Wedensday.FI but the jet streak is very active, so the possibility is 50/50 for the second to happen even this far out.

Paddy.1

GFS latest run now has storm centre to the near NW on Monday..



Much chopping and changing up to D Day I reckon.

Off topic, It is actually getting very windy here now, is there anybody else noticeing this?

Paddy.1

Snowbie wrote: »

Also trailing this potent storm on Monday is another storm for Wedensday.FI but the jet streak is very active, so the possibility is 50/50 for the second to happen even this far out.

I'll just get my kite dusted off..:o

Mothman

I suggest thread titled changed to highlight potential

Duiske

Seen some discussion on Netweather of a possible severe storm forecast for Ireland and nothern parts of the uk from sunday evening into monday afternoon.

This is from the Guardian newspaper this morning.

Snowbie

Mothman wrote: »

I suggest thread titled changed to highlight potential

Agreed. Title changed.

Duiske

Sorry about that Snowbie. Did not see this thread.

Snowbie

Duiske wrote: »

Sorry about that Snowbie. Did not see this thread.

Thats no problem.

From the 12z, there will be minimum gale force winds for a sustained 24hrs starting 2100 Sunday evening to 2100 monday evening.

I have family due to land in Dublin around 9pm-10pm Sunday - what ya reckon!?

Mad windy here NOW!

JanuarySnowstor

The latest fax has the core over Dublin
Everything South of this takes a violent hammering
Cork looks..........:eek:

homosapien

each successive GFS run over the past 36 hours or so intensifies this "manic" depression for 9/10th March. The time period of strong winds has also been extended, either that or my eyes are beginning to fail me usually the other way around from my memory of past "bombs"....with downgrades closer to the expected timeframe of arrival on our shores ..perhaps still time for this. I'm also in Cork and we had moderate winds earlier in evening and I was thinking what things will be like this time Sunday/early Monday!

nacho libre

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The latest fax has the core over Dublin
Everything South of this takes a violent hammering
Cork looks..........:eek:

just a question on that; how come when a storm goes in over, either the South of England or Northern France, the strongest winds are not to be found south of the low pressure system? where as over Ireland if it tracks over the centre of the country the strongest winds will be to the south of the low pressure's track?

kerry1960

something totally off topic , but here's the result of my elderly parents in law's misadventures with a frying pan , i took this cameraphone pic at 4.30pm (thu) in tralee while the firemen finished 'mopping up' inside/downstairs/kitchen section , utterly destroyed , a disaster ,but at least there both ok .

im not even sure why i posted this , after all this is a weather forum , but the thoughts of sun/mon's storm destructive wind potential is'nt very good is it , it's grand if you live underground/under water , or on a beach , but people who are ramping a major storm ,cop on , these yokes are lethal ,

im praying this is one event that does not happen

Paddy.1

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Cork looks..........:eek:

Always did;)
Looking at the latest fax chart and gfs run (00hrs), there seems to be a firming up that the center of the low will pass directly over Ireland. A few miles north or south will have a huge impact on a local level. There is also a nice wrap-a-round occlusion being progged on its immediate back edge which could bring the potential for some sleety snowie messy type percipitation in the breeze:


As others have mentioned, Southern areas seems to be most at risk at this stage from the strongest winds, but the initial southerly looks quite potent as well.
With a low that explosive passing over the auld sod, It wouldn't surprise me if there are random and sparodic falls of snow locally as the "eye" crosses over.

Is there a major pattern change emerging?

M.T. Cranium

I hope for the best but fear the worst seeing this very strong low just three days away now ... central pressure seems to be dropping on this latest model run again, 945 mbs. Suggests the potential for 100 mph wind gusts on Monday in some parts of Ireland, and 80 mph fairly widespread. And another one will be along Wednesday ... not quite as bad (they say) ... good luck.

Mothman

As of Friday morning, this is Met Eireann take on the storm

Winds will back southerly and increase on Sunday evening, and it'll become stormy during Sunday night. Winds will gust well over 100 km/h and, together with the very strong winds, some heavy rain is expected. The stormy, wet weather will continue through Monday, the storms perhaps abating for a time before returning as winds swing westerly. Some area may receive as much as 20-30mm of rain through this stormy period. The storm will finally die down during the first half of Tuesday; the rain breaking up into showers at that stage as winds settle back to the southwest.

And Kerry1960, I'm sorry for your and your families troubles, rest assured that no one here is wishing any harm on anyone. Glad to hear your folks are safe, but obviously very traumatic

I'm off for weekend. 2 days ago I decided to cut short trip by a day having originally planned to come back on Monday.
There'll be a good bit of reading here to catch up on, upon my return.

Snowbie

@Kerry1960, sorry to hear about that, hope everyone is ok.

The chart above has the central core right in over Ireland. So we will experience a lull in some parts of the country after the initial southerly gales.Atm the southern third of the country looks like having prolonged gales throughout.

I dont think Paddy this is a good setup for snow, actually its a downgrade with the warm sector of the core over the country. The highest peaks i reckon would favour but low lying areas will be just a rain event. The back end of the storm later Monday evening will probably bring wintry showers over the western seaboard.

Enjoy your weekend MM.

hawkwing

latest metoff uk :

The Met Office is expecting an intense low pressure system to move east across the UK during Monday 10 March, bringing severe gales and potentially damaging gusts across some areas. Southerly winds are expected to strengthen during the first part of Monday but then turn westerly later. Gusts of 60 to 70mph are expected but there is a possibility of 80mph gusts over exposed coasts and hills. Much depends on the exact track of the low centre but at this stage, parts of Wales and the southern half of England are considered at greatest risk. Disruption could occur to transport and power supply networks and there may be damage to buildings. This warning will be updated around 1030 on Saturday 8 March 2008.

Issued at: 0930 Fri 7 Mar

M.T. Cranium

After looking at the 06z GFS run, the storm continues to impress with its very low central pressure of about 947 mbs and a very tight gradient over western and southern Ireland especially, from about 0300 to 2100 hours on Monday. Although the UK metoffice doesn't cover Ireland their map of risk zones shows the maximum risk extending into almost all parts of Ireland, however, I would say the west coast south of about Galway is most at risk with areas from there east to around Dublin and south being exposed to the higher gusts of this storm which could easily reach 90 or even 100 mph if the GFS has this nailed down (at 72 hours now, not that difficult to imagine). With the new moon just occurring now, high tides are already going to be above normal and with these winds west-facing harbours may be overtopped by storm surge. Some prodigious waves likely in the southwest. South coast also should get hit fairly hard by this especially perhaps the earlier stages when winds are more SW, later on they will be about W to WNW. A fairly low snow line will develop late on Monday but at elevations where most people live the precip will be either rain or hail, and quite squally at times.

ch750536

Jeebus, I'm at altitude with little cover to the south, about 20 miles inland from ballbunion.

I'll do a football test, where you kick the ball in the air as high as you can & then measure the distance travelled.

Non scientific, but fun. will try to get it on camera.

Yup according to Bren of meteogroup over on two-gusts in SW Ireland could be frequently above 100 miles per hour going on the latest ECM.
Yes thats miles not km's.
So a horrendously breezy night for you ch750536.
I'd genuinely be stocking up on the batteries and candles if I were you and a gas bottle for the cooker.