Sunday evening/Monday - Very Severe Storm

DOCARCH · 09-03-2008 10:25am

RuggieBear wrote: »

So when is the high tide in Dublin? Live in Sandymount. Might wander over and see how high the dodder gets.

OT: British Isles is a geographical term AFAIK...much like the Irish Sea. But the mainland bit pisses me off too.

I think high tide is at around midnight tonight and then again around 1pm tomoorrow - could get really interesting in the city centre. I have seen the Liffey within a foot of the the top of the quay wall (around the IFSC/City Quay) if the water breaches the top of the quay walls there will obviously be absolute chaos! Upper quays are more protected by the quay walls.

In addition, obviously if we get heavy rain overnight, this will add to the problem as it will swell the levels of the Dodder, Liffey and Tolka.

RuggieBear · 09-03-2008 10:28am

I'm glad i'm not in the Dept of Marine any more as I'd have to have been in today checking the models and issuing the notices

Any estimates on air pressure at 12.43pm (Dublin High tide today) and wind direction?

Just googled this up:

http://www.sailing.ie/dynamic/pdf/Ti...March%2008.pdf

DOCARCH · 09-03-2008 10:33am

RuggieBear wrote: »

I'm glad i'm not in the Dept of Marine any more as I'd have to have been in today checking the models and issuing the notices

Just checked - high tides for Dublin for March 10th are 12:57am - height 4.05 m and 1:12pm - height 4.29m

The 1.12pm high tide being the real problem, as mentioned above, this very high spring tide looks like coinciding with the low pressure centre.

RuggieBear · 09-03-2008 10:36am

Yeah that will be the problem one alright...I'll be at work in Blanch so i'll miss all the excitement on the coast...that's why I'm wondering about today's? lol

DOCARCH · 09-03-2008 11:01am

RuggieBear wrote: »

Yeah that will be the problem one alright...I'll be at work in Blanch so i'll miss all the excitement on the coast...that's why I'm wondering about today's? lol

High tide today is at 12.30pm but the pressure today will be relatively high compared to tomorrow so even though todays tide will be marginally higher than tomorrows, in reality tomorrows high tide will higher........if you know what I mean!!! :rolleyes:

Snake Plisken · 09-03-2008 11:56am

mike65 wrote: »

Snappy!

Speaking of snaps I imagine anyone in the south with a solid dish clamped to thier chimney stack might wonder if they should take it down if possible by the sounds of it.

Mike.

I'm in Lucan here and I have a 1.2mtr Channel Master solid Dish bolted to my back garden wall, always freak out in knowing what way to point the dish so that it does not get the full force of any wind and take off, House is south facing so some shield from southerly winds currently pointing to 28Deg East, just wondering would I be better off moving it up to 1 Deg West? Any help would be appreciated

ninebeanrows · 09-03-2008 11:58am

The storm really does not look at all concerning.

Granted it will be a monster, the strong winds will be off the south coast.

I expect to see some gusts from 60-70mph in the south and along the passage of the cold front but nothing more.

Tuesday night, Wednesday looks alot more threatening.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.png

ch750536 · 09-03-2008 12:25pm

UK MO has downgraded

ninebeanrows · 09-03-2008 12:26pm

Gonna be interesting to be able to look straight up into a 950mb low for people in Dublin tomorrow though!

But the strongest winds looks like staying offshore to our south.

The cold front will still bring gusts to 65 knots or 70mph

09-03-2008 12:32pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

The storm really does not look at all concerning.

Granted it will be a monster, the strong winds will be off the south coast.

I expect to see some gusts from 60-70mph in the south and along the passage of the cold front but nothing more.

Tuesday night, Wednesday looks alot more threatening.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.png

Thats because latest model output and particularally the UKMO have moved the low much further south giving at worst a gale over most of the country at times but often just slack winds as the low is wide,meaning that for the bulk of the "storm" , we'll have anticyclonic variable winds.
We'll see.

As regards tuesday and wenesday,I'd take a grain of salt there too because if the models were rubbish at that range deciding the track of this low (2 or 3 days ago making it look bad just like what you are looking at now for tuesday/Wens) what makes you think they'll be any better with the track of the next one?

These deep storms have minds of their own and can at the last minute move where ever they want depending on now unknown variables.
Thats what got Michael Fish in so much trouble back in October '87 - a last minute extra deepening and track change.

Kippure · 09-03-2008 12:47pm

FArming forecast in 10 minutes. Dont miss it on rte1

ninebeanrows · 09-03-2008 1:06pm

What a larf! Must be a slow news day.

Never heard a weather event make the 2nd headline when it hasnt even arrived.

There will be lots of people giving out to the Met tomorrow, but that's unfair because the storm was has just been moved further and further south in recent runs.

It's a heck of a storm and should look awesome on the sat pics.

But the wind won't be too much, just a gale at times.

lostexpectation · 09-03-2008 1:18pm

need more weather cams, would like to be able to see the coast road/dublin bay

Darwin · 09-03-2008 1:20pm

These deep storms have minds of their own and can at the last minute move where ever they want depending on now unknown variables.
Thats what got Michael Fish in so much trouble back in October '87 - a last minute extra deepening and track change.

Well I would say forecasting accuracy has improved in line with computing power in the intervening 20 years so I would imagine the met service can be fairly confident about an event that is less than 12 hours away.
Farming forecast puts the strongest winds on Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning to the north of the country.

Trogdor · 09-03-2008 1:21pm

lostexpectation wrote: »

need more weather cams, would like to be able to see the coast road/dublin bay

And a few on the Kerry coast, those 50ft waves should look awesome.

nacho libre · 09-03-2008 1:27pm

As i expected, despite the ramping up of it in some quarters, this storm would turn out to be a dampsquid for most of us. If the farming forecast can be relied upon next weekend should be interesting!
Perhaps, our last flirt with winter!!

Paddy.1 · 09-03-2008 1:31pm

nacho libre wrote: »

As i expected, despite the ramping up of it in some quarters, this storm would turn out to be a dampsquid for most of us. If the farming forecast can be relied upon next weekend should be interesting!
Perhaps, our last flirt with winter!!

Agree, next weekend is not without interest. We are still likely to get a bit of a breeze this side Nacho tonight and tomorrow afternoon, but certainly nothing we are not used to already. Could be more interesting, especially for you on tuesday night/ wendnesday morning. Time will tell!!

Damomanye · 09-03-2008 1:32pm

could someone who saw it please sum up what the farming forecast siad about this incoming low? i didnt see it. cheers

Kippure · 09-03-2008 1:33pm

Damomanye wrote: »

could someone who saw it please sum up what the farming forecast siad about this incoming low? i didnt see it. cheers

Very wet and very windy all day tomorrow.

ninebeanrows · 09-03-2008 1:39pm

The storm is undergoing rapid intensification at the moment and seem to be positioned as forecast.

kerry1960 · 09-03-2008 1:39pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I was simply correcting you on the use of the term mainland UK with reference to where we are.
It is an incorrect term to use.
This is an independent country and has been for decades.
The use of the term mainland implies dependency and that is the inacuracy.We are not a dependency of a foreign country.Yeah but Google says when I search for my name , that I'm a member of my local sailing club.Thats also inacurate.I havent been a member for years.
For the record,there is a province on this island that is British territory,the island is not.Thats been the case since 1947,when the term "british isles"
Ceased to include this island.

To drag a more meterological perspective in to this,a certain RTÉ forecaster was actually removed from their broadcasts a few moons ago for persistant annoying use of the term "British Isles".

Thats all I have to say on the matter as it's off topic really.

On topic,and I notice that many local authorities on the East and South coasts seem to be asleep compared to their Dublin counterparts(sand bagging etc) in terms of making preparations for what is coming.

no problem mate just a slight misunderstanding all around, i am tempted to use the
phrase 'storm in a teacup' ,:D .if this storm comes off tomorrow the sw of eire could end up directly connected to cornwall anyway ,:eek:

Paddy.1 · 09-03-2008 1:41pm

Latest ECM chart for midnight tonight:

First wave of winds crossing the country.

Latest ecm for tuesday night:

2.gif?t=1205070005

A possible more widespread squall.

ch750536 · 09-03-2008 2:16pm

Wind changed just now to a more southerly.

Gonzo · 09-03-2008 2:33pm

so has this storm being downgraded over Ireland to just a normal windy day with all the dangerous winds off the coast to the south? I hope so, im not really a fan of windy weather.

maquiladora · 09-03-2008 2:38pm

Isn't it too early to try and downgrade this considering a wobble northward over the coming hours could change what areas are impacted.

Snowbie · 09-03-2008 3:26pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Isn't it too early to try and downgrade this considering a wobble northward over the coming hours could change what areas are impacted.

12z will be rolling out soon enough and will be a 90% probability of the track. It can still wobble but looking likely that a landfall over Mayo and track over Dublin.

Snowbie · 09-03-2008 3:48pm

Snowbie wrote: »

12z will be rolling out soon enough and will be a 90% probability of the track. It can still wobble but looking likely that a landfall over Mayo and track over Dublin.

12z is out and the track is exactly what i said above and a slight downgrade on winds even for the SW for midday monday. Still strong down there but a noticeable decrease almost countrywide. The eye if we can call it that will pass directly over Dublin with slack cyclonic winds.

Pressure estimated at 956-960mb when over Dublin noon monday.

ninebeanrows · 09-03-2008 3:48pm

12z GFS suggest same track perhaps even 25 miles further south.

Although i dont know if the GFS at this stage is the best source of information.

What look certain is that from

The Irish sea tonight will be very windy, mean windspeeds of around 80/90 km/hr with gusts to 120/130 km/hr between 10pm and 3am tonight.

maquiladora · 09-03-2008 3:50pm

Snowbie wrote: »

12z will be rolling out soon enough and will be a 90% probability of the track. It can still wobble but looking likely that a landfall over Mayo and track over Dublin.

The 12Z puts it further south but at 15:00 it looks further north on sat24 than on the GFS. Can the GFS be trusted as much at this stage or would UKMO be more accurate?

Paddy.1 · 09-03-2008 4:03pm

Looks like latest GFS has pressure forecast to fall to 952 mb directly over me at 6am tomorrow morning. Will be interesting to see if it is right. Expected to fill a bit as it moves eastwards. Certainly some sort of vacuming effect will be felt tomorrow morning around the county.

Snowbie · 09-03-2008 4:07pm

maquiladora wrote: »

The 12Z puts it further south but at 15:00 it looks further north on sat24 than on the GFS. Can the GFS be trusted as much at this stage or would UKMO be more accurate?

Granted we all know including the model outputs that a storm is in the making but when developed this can wobble so much so that 50miles north or south will have a different impact.
Moves north=turbulent, south=much slacker for a time.

Its no surprise that models now are changing or are slightly different to the next as it comes closer and develops, slight movements of the core is very possible.
There is no storm as yet but intensification is under way.
12z is showing a SSE windflow ahead of the warm front assocciated with the LP and the 18z should confirm where the strongest winds should be but without a wobble if there is going to be one?

maquiladora · 09-03-2008 4:08pm

She's starting to look like a beast :eek:

Kippure · 09-03-2008 4:11pm

maquiladora wrote: »

She's starting to look like a beast :eek:

Thats cool looking.

ninebeanrows · 09-03-2008 4:14pm

Wednesday's storm is looking more and more severe for this part of the world

GFS suggesting wind gusts could reach 70kts

It's that type of system that usually brings severe winds to these parts.

09-03-2008 4:18pm

when will the eye of the storm be over Dublin?
I always get headaches when the pressure is very low and I have an exam tomorrow

Wertz · 09-03-2008 4:21pm

Is this the same system that's dumped all the winter weather in the central and NE US over the last few days?

Paddy.1 · 09-03-2008 4:25pm

Deleted User wrote: »

when will the eye of the storm be over Dublin?
I always get headaches when the pressure is very low and I have an exam tomorrow

between around 9 and 12 tomorrow morning. Good luck in the exam.

lostexpectation · 09-03-2008 4:29pm

doens't seem too crazy here , but cool how the page updates itself quickly, http://www.lahinchsurfshop.com/lahinch/magico.asp?magpage=9

tramore that more south
http://www.tramoresurfshop.com/

Damomanye · 09-03-2008 4:38pm

Sky news reporting that their Governments emergency committee is to meet to discuss the impending storm

Wertz · 09-03-2008 4:42pm

In fairness it looks like the English Channel and the SE coast are going to take a hammering from this, compounded by the spring tides.

gerbilgranny · 09-03-2008 5:00pm

'Waiting for the Hurricane' by our own lovely Chris de Burgh

deserves a few airplays this evening, then.

tony1212 · 09-03-2008 5:05pm

hey guys will this storm do any damage around the limerick area, and if it does what time is the storm supposed to start.

JanuarySnowstor · 09-03-2008 5:32pm

The Met Office in the UK now prediciting hurricane force 12 for Shannon:eek:

Kippure · 09-03-2008 5:33pm

Wouldnt surprise me if it started as snow. Dublin airport has a tempeture of 6c and a dew point of minus 1. Continues to fall away.

Snowbie · 09-03-2008 5:34pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote:

The Met Office in the UK now prediciting hurricane force 12 for Shannon

Thats Shannon shipping area i reckon.

Damomanye · 09-03-2008 5:37pm

tony1212 wrote: »

hey guys will this storm do any damage around the limerick area, and if it does what time is the storm supposed to start.

i really dont see any problems from this system for our area of Limerick.A few downed trees perhaps around the county imho. other than that, a miserable blustry day in the city.

Gonzo · 09-03-2008 5:44pm

I think this has been blown out of proportion as well, I think it will be very windy but nothing out of the ordinary that we havent seen over past few years, it might be as windy as some of the storms we had around the very windy period of November-December 2006. I think Dublin and the East Coast in general will just see about 30-60mph winds, more like 60 to 85mph around Cork/Kerry.

mike65 · 09-03-2008 5:50pm

Shush! You can't let the air out before its been pumped up fully.

Mike.

Sierra Oscar · 09-03-2008 5:54pm

Gonzo wrote: »

I think this has been blown out of proportion as well, I think it will be very windy but nothing out of the ordinary that we havent seen over past few years, it might be as windy as some of the storms we had around the very windy period of November-December 2006. I think Dublin and the East Coast in general will just see about 30-60mph winds, more like 60 to 85mph around Cork/Kerry.

Time will tell. . .;)

Gaijin · 09-03-2008 6:11pm

:eek:

I'm supposed to be flying to London tomorrow evening, shall I write my will and have the sick bags at the ready or has this storms potential been exaggerated.

Cloudy with a slight wind outside my window at the moment!

Sunday evening/Monday - Very Severe Storm

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