Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

Sephiroth_dude · 2020-10-05 17:17:01

Previous threads: Thread I Thread II Thread III Thread IV Thread V Thread VI Thread VII Thread VIII Thread IX Thread X Thread XI Thread XII Thread XIII Thread XIV Thread XV Thread XVI Thread XVII Thread XVIII Thread XIX Thread XX Thread XXI Thread XXII Thread XXIII Thread XXIV The daily numbers Mod warnings:* Please…

05-10-2020 05:17PM

#1
Sephiroth_dude

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Previous threads:

Thread I
Thread II
Thread III
Thread IV
Thread V
Thread VI
Thread VII
Thread VIII
Thread IX
Thread X
Thread XI
Thread XII
Thread XIII
Thread XIV
Thread XV
Thread XVI
Thread XVII
Thread XVIII
Thread XIX
Thread XX
Thread XXI
Thread XXII
Thread XXIII
Thread XXIV

The daily numbers

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And now a maths lesson:
“Average” is a non-defined term. “Mean” and “Median” are both mathematically defined terms.
Mean = the sum of a series of numbers divided by the number of items in the series
Hence the Mean of 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 7, 8 = (1+2+3+3+4+7+8)/7 = 4
Median is the midpoint number. In the above example it’s the 4th number in the sequence of 7 numbers – in this case 3
Both numbers are examples of “averages”. Not every average is the “Mean”, not every average is the “Median”, but every “Mean” and every “Median” number is an average

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Comments

#2 05-10-2020 05:19PM

Oranage2

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First

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#3 05-10-2020 05:19PM

Beasty

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Bit slow off the mark there SD:pac:

We will be needing a new Relaxation of Restrictions thread shortly....

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#4 05-10-2020 05:19PM

Infini

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froog wrote: »

NPHET saying ICU beds will reach capacity by Oct 25. this seems to be what drove the level 5 push.

Jesus thats just 3 weeks away, can't really blame them for recommending lv5 if thats what they're seeing. On the up side at least Dublin's share has dropped off and fallen to a fifth of the share rather than majority but still thats a serious enough concern.

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#5 05-10-2020 05:20PM

Icyseanfitz

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Have Dublin's numbers dropped much from last week?

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#6 05-10-2020 05:20PM

stephenjmcd

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https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1313163933881176065?s=19

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#7 05-10-2020 05:21PM

Sephiroth_dude

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Beasty wrote: »

Bit slow off the mark there SD:pac:

We will be needing a new Relaxation of Restrictions thread shortly....

Great minds and all that

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#8 05-10-2020 05:21PM

froog

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Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Have Dublin's numbers dropped much from last week?

yeah i'm wondering this too. where can i find dublin numbers by day for the last few weeks?

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#9 05-10-2020 05:21PM

Oranage2

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Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Have Dublin's numbers dropped much from last week?

They haven't dropped at all and in fact still rising though much slower

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#10 05-10-2020 05:22PM

billybonkers

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So midnight tomorrow then for three weeks

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#11 05-10-2020 05:22PM

CIARAN_BOYLE

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Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Have Dublin's numbers dropped much from last week?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114833443&postcount=9937

Rising slowly but pretty flat last few weeks.

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#12 05-10-2020 05:22PM

titan18

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stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1313163933881176065?s=19

I don't get that. It's not like restaurants and bars can sell all their stock in one day. Especially without breaching the health guidelines

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#13 05-10-2020 05:23PM

Ficheall

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Beasty wrote: »

Bit slow off the mark there SD:pac:

Fight! Fight! Fight!

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#14 05-10-2020 05:23PM

Sephiroth_dude

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Lets see if this is the fastest thread yet to 10k, if we break the record, the pints are one me!

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#15 05-10-2020 05:23PM

walshb

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Is the Taoiseach due to address the nation this evening?

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#16 05-10-2020 05:24PM

JP Liz V1

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Do non pubs close every where for level 3?

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#17 05-10-2020 05:24PM

alias no.9

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walshb wrote: »

So the mathematical modelling is the L5 reasoning/logic..

Are they modelling based on the right indicators though? Up until today I was happy to leave it to NPHET but I'm pissed off with this knee jerk level 5 recommendation, so I took a look at the official charts and my jaw dropped. Since they've got a hold on the clusters in the long term residential care facilities, mortality rates have flatlined. Their charts, not mine, I just overlaid them.

The resources of the state are best deployed in a strict testing and contact tracing regime in these settings and let everyone else get on with their lives. Cases have been rampant since the lockdown ended, as you'd expect, but mortality rates are trivial when compared to March/April/May.

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#18 05-10-2020 05:26PM

begbysback

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Just to reiterate what wise words were posted at the ending the previous thread, today is the day we take the reins back off the white coats, we are no longer heading to the point where an immunologist says we can’t step outside our front doors, a great day people.

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#19 05-10-2020 05:27PM

bennyl10

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begbysback wrote: »

Just to reiterate what wise words were posted at the ending the previous thread, today is the day we take the reins back off the white coats, we are no longer heading to the point where an immunologist says we can’t step outside our front doors, a great day people.

Instead of listening to epidemiologist’s we’re listening to people with no clue

This isn’t a great day at all

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#20 05-10-2020 05:27PM

CIARAN_BOYLE

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alias no.9 wrote: »

Are they modelling based on the right indicators though? Up until today I was happy to leave it to NPHET but I'm pissed off with this knee jerk level 5 recommendation, so I took a look at the official charts and my jaw dropped. Since they've got a hold on the clusters in the long term residential care facilities, mortality rates have flatlined. Their charts, not mine, I just overlaid them.

The resources of the state are best deployed in a strict testing and contact tracing regime in these settings and let everyone else get on with their lives. Cases have been rampant since the lockdown ended, as you'd expect, but mortality rates are trivial when compared to March/April/May.

Aren't there 31 active clusters in nursing homes atm? I would consider that having lost control of clusters in long term residential care facilities.

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#21 05-10-2020 05:28PM

SCOOP 64

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Cant see moving to level 3 having a great impact.

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#22 05-10-2020 05:29PM

Ficheall

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begbysback wrote: »

Just to reiterate what wise words were posted at the ending the previous thread, today is the day we take the reins back off the white coats, we are no longer heading to the point where an immunologist says we can’t step outside our front doors, a great day people.

Well, at least you think you are wise, even if no one else does. An impressive, if misplaced, level of self-confidence.

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#23 05-10-2020 05:30PM

mr_edge_to_you

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SCOOP 64 wrote: »

Cant see moving to level 3 having a great impact.

Not a hope. Sure we're at level two already and we can't manage that.

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#24 05-10-2020 05:30PM

alias no.9

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CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Aren't there 31 active clusters in nursing homes atm? I would consider that having lost control of clusters in long term residential care facilities.

Meanwhile NPHET are busy trying to lock down the country instead of doing daily tests on all staff, residents and visitors in the at risk locations. In hindsight they ****ed up by not protecting these facilities back in March and it looks like their eyes are elsewhere once again.

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#25 05-10-2020 05:30PM

gmisk

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Just 39 vacant icu beds is pretty scary...that isn't a huge amount of spare capacity.

The fact NPHET forecasted 50-70 in icu by 25th October due to covid....

Level 5 would have been extreme but they aren't taking account the economic impacts I suppose.

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#26 05-10-2020 05:30PM

spookwoman

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#27 05-10-2020 05:30PM

Infini

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SCOOP 64 wrote: »

Cant see moving to level 3 having a great impact.

It so far does seem to be flattening the growth rate but daily case numbers arent falling much either. Nationwide I dont know myself if it will require more drastic action but if numbers dont drop at national levels were into lockdown territorry regardless next.

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#28 05-10-2020 05:30PM

stephenjmcd

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https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1313169370336591875?s=19

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#29 05-10-2020 05:30PM

Jim_Hodge

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JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Do non pubs close every where for level 3?

Look at the framework

Range of restrictions
up to and including
no indoor dining

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#30 05-10-2020 05:31PM

Gruffalux

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alias no.9 wrote: »

. Cases have been rampant since the lockdown ended, as you'd expect, but mortality rates are trivial when compared to March/April/May.

Cases have not been rampant since the lockdown. This is the false impression upon which people are basing flawed conclusions.

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#31 05-10-2020 05:31PM

drunkmonkey

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JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Do non pubs close every where for level 3?

Pubs are open all the Government plan says is in addition to the level 2 restrictions..
"Range of restrictions
up to and including
no indoor dining"

So wet pubs open but no food
https://assets.gov.ie/87604/405b1065-055a-4ca8-9513-390ce5298b10.pdf

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