Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

Sephiroth_dude

Previous threads:

Thread I
Thread II
Thread III
Thread IV
Thread V
Thread VI
Thread VII
Thread VIII
Thread IX
Thread X
Thread XI
Thread XII
Thread XIII
Thread XIV
Thread XV
Thread XVI
Thread XVII
Thread XVIII
Thread XIX
Thread XX
Thread XXI
Thread XXII
Thread XXIII
Thread XXIV

The daily numbers

Mod warnings:

1. Please interact in a civil manner
2. Do not tell others what to do, or what to post
3. It is against site rules to seek or offer any medical advice. Please do not post here about your symptoms asking what to do. Contact your doctor by telephone and they can advise you as appropriate
4. If you have a problem with a post report it and leave the modding to the mods

In terms of thread content:

• Treat everything you read here with caution. Anything posted is from an anonymous internet poster. You cannot assume anyone has any "specialist" knowledge whatever they claim
• Statistics are important to some (and I personally pay a lot of attention to them), but they are of very little use to anyone who is already caught up in this, or indeed knows of people who are caught up
• Whatever your own views are please recognise others are entitled to different views., Even if at different extremes please do not try and repeatedly ram your views down the throats of those who have differing views
• Cut out any cover-up/conspiracy stuff. If you have a reliable source quote it (not just their words but provide a link to a reliable source) - otherwise your claims carry little if any weight. If you wish to discuss conspiracy theories we have a dedicated forum for that and it’s not this one
• If the likes of the HSE have a verified Twitter account we can assume what they post is accurate. Randomers on here or elsewhere cannot be considered "official" or "reliable" sources
• If people wish to flout the restriction rules that is up to them. They cannot complain at the consequences, be that direct action from the authorities, exposure in Social Media (not here) or being shunned by locals, friends, family etc. If they post about it here, or encourage others to flout the rules, trying to appear macho, or thinking they are above the rules or simply being a smart arse, posting privileges will be removed
• If you don't want to see discussion about Trump perhaps stay clear of this thread between the hours of 22:00 and 01:00. This is a thread for "breaking news" so please do not expect posters to discuss things happening "now" in other threads. It's not discouraged but equally posters expect to discuss such issues in this thread (added 14/04/20)

And now a maths lesson:
“Average” is a non-defined term. “Mean” and “Median” are both mathematically defined terms.
Mean = the sum of a series of numbers divided by the number of items in the series
Hence the Mean of 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 7, 8 = (1+2+3+3+4+7+8)/7 = 4
Median is the midpoint number. In the above example it’s the 4th number in the sequence of 7 numbers – in this case 3
Both numbers are examples of “averages”. Not every average is the “Mean”, not every average is the “Median”, but every “Mean” and every “Median” number is an average

All threadbans carry over, but we will reconsider if anyone wishes to discuss it further via PM

Currently threadbanned:
Shuhada Davitt
Man vs Manure
Clarence Boddiker
IAMAMORON
completedit
Cw85
ThewhiteJesus
Snowbiee21
HowardBeale
Level 42
Burty330
JoeFritzl
Midfield Major
paleoperson
declanflynn
Naggdefy
Sober Crappy Chemis
BloodBath
timmy_mallett
rovers_runner
TimeLadsPlease
paddythere
Jimmy Garlic
CorkBoy53
Seven Septs
Ae Fond Kiss
Gabeeg
Tickers
AllGunsBlazing
Lash_Alert
The Unbearables
Wild Field 1831
Parabellum9
Dionaibh
Pawinho
Erranged
partyguinness
buzzerxx
NegativeCreep
CiarraiManc
Roots 2020
smelly sock
PowerToWait - lifted 11/10/20
caveat emptor - lifted 11/10/20
drunkmonkey

Oranage2

First

Beasty

Bit slow off the mark there SD:pac:

We will be needing a new Relaxation of Restrictions thread shortly....

Infini

froog wrote: »

NPHET saying ICU beds will reach capacity by Oct 25. this seems to be what drove the level 5 push.

Jesus thats just 3 weeks away, can't really blame them for recommending lv5 if thats what they're seeing. On the up side at least Dublin's share has dropped off and fallen to a fifth of the share rather than majority but still thats a serious enough concern.

Icyseanfitz

Have Dublin's numbers dropped much from last week?

stephenjmcd

https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1313163933881176065?s=19

Sephiroth_dude

Beasty wrote: »

Bit slow off the mark there SD:pac:

We will be needing a new Relaxation of Restrictions thread shortly....

Great minds and all that

froog

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Have Dublin's numbers dropped much from last week?

yeah i'm wondering this too. where can i find dublin numbers by day for the last few weeks?

Oranage2

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Have Dublin's numbers dropped much from last week?

They haven't dropped at all and in fact still rising though much slower

billybonkers

So midnight tomorrow then for three weeks

CIARAN_BOYLE

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Have Dublin's numbers dropped much from last week?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114833443&postcount=9937

Rising slowly but pretty flat last few weeks.

titan18

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1313163933881176065?s=19

I don't get that. It's not like restaurants and bars can sell all their stock in one day. Especially without breaching the health guidelines

Ficheall

Beasty wrote: »

Bit slow off the mark there SD:pac:

Fight! Fight! Fight!

Sephiroth_dude

Lets see if this is the fastest thread yet to 10k, if we break the record, the pints are one me!

walshb

Is the Taoiseach due to address the nation this evening?

JP Liz V1

Do non pubs close every where for level 3?

alias no.9

walshb wrote: »

So the mathematical modelling is the L5 reasoning/logic..

Are they modelling based on the right indicators though? Up until today I was happy to leave it to NPHET but I'm pissed off with this knee jerk level 5 recommendation, so I took a look at the official charts and my jaw dropped. Since they've got a hold on the clusters in the long term residential care facilities, mortality rates have flatlined. Their charts, not mine, I just overlaid them.



The resources of the state are best deployed in a strict testing and contact tracing regime in these settings and let everyone else get on with their lives. Cases have been rampant since the lockdown ended, as you'd expect, but mortality rates are trivial when compared to March/April/May.

begbysback

Just to reiterate what wise words were posted at the ending the previous thread, today is the day we take the reins back off the white coats, we are no longer heading to the point where an immunologist says we can’t step outside our front doors, a great day people.

bennyl10

begbysback wrote: »

Just to reiterate what wise words were posted at the ending the previous thread, today is the day we take the reins back off the white coats, we are no longer heading to the point where an immunologist says we can’t step outside our front doors, a great day people.

Instead of listening to epidemiologist’s we’re listening to people with no clue

This isn’t a great day at all

CIARAN_BOYLE

alias no.9 wrote: »

Are they modelling based on the right indicators though? Up until today I was happy to leave it to NPHET but I'm pissed off with this knee jerk level 5 recommendation, so I took a look at the official charts and my jaw dropped. Since they've got a hold on the clusters in the long term residential care facilities, mortality rates have flatlined. Their charts, not mine, I just overlaid them.



The resources of the state are best deployed in a strict testing and contact tracing regime in these settings and let everyone else get on with their lives. Cases have been rampant since the lockdown ended, as you'd expect, but mortality rates are trivial when compared to March/April/May.

Aren't there 31 active clusters in nursing homes atm? I would consider that having lost control of clusters in long term residential care facilities.

SCOOP 64

Cant see moving to level 3 having a great impact.

Ficheall

begbysback wrote: »

Just to reiterate what wise words were posted at the ending the previous thread, today is the day we take the reins back off the white coats, we are no longer heading to the point where an immunologist says we can’t step outside our front doors, a great day people.

Well, at least you think you are wise, even if no one else does. An impressive, if misplaced, level of self-confidence.

mr_edge_to_you

SCOOP 64 wrote: »

Cant see moving to level 3 having a great impact.

Not a hope. Sure we're at level two already and we can't manage that.

alias no.9

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Aren't there 31 active clusters in nursing homes atm? I would consider that having lost control of clusters in long term residential care facilities.

Meanwhile NPHET are busy trying to lock down the country instead of doing daily tests on all staff, residents and visitors in the at risk locations. In hindsight they ****ed up by not protecting these facilities back in March and it looks like their eyes are elsewhere once again.

gmisk

Just 39 vacant icu beds is pretty scary...that isn't a huge amount of spare capacity.

The fact NPHET forecasted 50-70 in icu by 25th October due to covid....

Level 5 would have been extreme but they aren't taking account the economic impacts I suppose.

spookwoman

Infini

SCOOP 64 wrote: »

Cant see moving to level 3 having a great impact.

It so far does seem to be flattening the growth rate but daily case numbers arent falling much either. Nationwide I dont know myself if it will require more drastic action but if numbers dont drop at national levels were into lockdown territorry regardless next.

stephenjmcd

https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1313169370336591875?s=19

Jim_Hodge

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Do non pubs close every where for level 3?

Look at the framework

Range of restrictions
up to and including
no indoor dining

Gruffalux

alias no.9 wrote: »

. Cases have been rampant since the lockdown ended, as you'd expect, but mortality rates are trivial when compared to March/April/May.

Cases have not been rampant since the lockdown. This is the false impression upon which people are basing flawed conclusions.

drunkmonkey

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Do non pubs close every where for level 3?

Pubs are open all the Government plan says is in addition to the level 2 restrictions..
"Range of restrictions
up to and including
no indoor dining"

So wet pubs open but no food
https://assets.gov.ie/87604/405b1065-055a-4ca8-9513-390ce5298b10.pdf