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Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

  • 05-10-2020 5:17pm
    #1
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 77,857 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sephiroth_dude


    Previous threads:

    Thread I
    Thread II
    Thread III
    Thread IV
    Thread V
    Thread VI
    Thread VII
    Thread VIII
    Thread IX
    Thread X
    Thread XI
    Thread XII
    Thread XIII
    Thread XIV
    Thread XV
    Thread XVI
    Thread XVII
    Thread XVIII
    Thread XIX
    Thread XX
    Thread XXI
    Thread XXII
    Thread XXIII
    Thread XXIV

    The daily numbers

    Mod warnings:
    1. Please interact in a civil manner
    2. Do not tell others what to do, or what to post
    3. It is against site rules to seek or offer any medical advice. Please do not post here about your symptoms asking what to do. Contact your doctor by telephone and they can advise you as appropriate
    4. If you have a problem with a post report it and leave the modding to the mods

    In terms of thread content:
    • Treat everything you read here with caution. Anything posted is from an anonymous internet poster. You cannot assume anyone has any "specialist" knowledge whatever they claim
    • Statistics are important to some (and I personally pay a lot of attention to them), but they are of very little use to anyone who is already caught up in this, or indeed knows of people who are caught up
    • Whatever your own views are please recognise others are entitled to different views., Even if at different extremes please do not try and repeatedly ram your views down the throats of those who have differing views
    • Cut out any cover-up/conspiracy stuff. If you have a reliable source quote it (not just their words but provide a link to a reliable source) - otherwise your claims carry little if any weight. If you wish to discuss conspiracy theories we have a dedicated forum for that and it’s not this one
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    And now a maths lesson:
    “Average” is a non-defined term. “Mean” and “Median” are both mathematically defined terms.
    Mean = the sum of a series of numbers divided by the number of items in the series
    Hence the Mean of 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 7, 8 = (1+2+3+3+4+7+8)/7 = 4
    Median is the midpoint number. In the above example it’s the 4th number in the sequence of 7 numbers – in this case 3
    Both numbers are examples of “averages”. Not every average is the “Mean”, not every average is the “Median”, but every “Mean” and every “Median” number is an average

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,089 ✭✭✭✭ Oranage2


    First


  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 62,403 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭ Beasty


    Bit slow off the mark there SD:pac:

    We will be needing a new Relaxation of Restrictions thread shortly....


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭ Infini


    froog wrote: »
    NPHET saying ICU beds will reach capacity by Oct 25. this seems to be what drove the level 5 push.

    Jesus thats just 3 weeks away, can't really blame them for recommending lv5 if thats what they're seeing. On the up side at least Dublin's share has dropped off and fallen to a fifth of the share rather than majority but still thats a serious enough concern.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,075 ✭✭✭ Icyseanfitz


    Have Dublin's numbers dropped much from last week?


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,855 ✭✭✭✭ stephenjmcd




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  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 77,857 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sephiroth_dude


    Beasty wrote: »
    Bit slow off the mark there SD:pac:

    We will be needing a new Relaxation of Restrictions thread shortly....

    Great minds and all that ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭ froog


    Have Dublin's numbers dropped much from last week?

    yeah i'm wondering this too. where can i find dublin numbers by day for the last few weeks?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,089 ✭✭✭✭ Oranage2


    Have Dublin's numbers dropped much from last week?

    They haven't dropped at all and in fact still rising though much slower


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,294 ✭✭✭ billybonkers


    So midnight tomorrow then for three weeks


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,398 ✭✭✭✭ CIARAN_BOYLE


    Have Dublin's numbers dropped much from last week?

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114833443&postcount=9937

    Rising slowly but pretty flat last few weeks.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,520 ✭✭✭✭ titan18



    I don't get that. It's not like restaurants and bars can sell all their stock in one day. Especially without breaching the health guidelines


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,951 ✭✭✭ Ficheall


    Beasty wrote: »
    Fight! Fight! Fight!


  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 77,857 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sephiroth_dude


    Lets see if this is the fastest thread yet to 10k, if we break the record, the pints are one me!


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,682 ✭✭✭✭ walshb


    Is the Taoiseach due to address the nation this evening?


  • Registered Users Posts: 75,017 ✭✭✭✭ JP Liz V1


    Do non pubs close every where for level 3?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,970 ✭✭✭ alias no.9


    walshb wrote: »
    So the mathematical modelling is the L5 reasoning/logic..

    Are they modelling based on the right indicators though? Up until today I was happy to leave it to NPHET but I'm pissed off with this knee jerk level 5 recommendation, so I took a look at the official charts and my jaw dropped. Since they've got a hold on the clusters in the long term residential care facilities, mortality rates have flatlined. Their charts, not mine, I just overlaid them.

    528370.gif

    The resources of the state are best deployed in a strict testing and contact tracing regime in these settings and let everyone else get on with their lives. Cases have been rampant since the lockdown ended, as you'd expect, but mortality rates are trivial when compared to March/April/May.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,911 ✭✭✭ begbysback


    Just to reiterate what wise words were posted at the ending the previous thread, today is the day we take the reins back off the white coats, we are no longer heading to the point where an immunologist says we can’t step outside our front doors, a great day people.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,292 ✭✭✭ bennyl10


    begbysback wrote: »
    Just to reiterate what wise words were posted at the ending the previous thread, today is the day we take the reins back off the white coats, we are no longer heading to the point where an immunologist says we can’t step outside our front doors, a great day people.

    Instead of listening to epidemiologist’s we’re listening to people with no clue

    This isn’t a great day at all


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,398 ✭✭✭✭ CIARAN_BOYLE


    alias no.9 wrote: »
    Are they modelling based on the right indicators though? Up until today I was happy to leave it to NPHET but I'm pissed off with this knee jerk level 5 recommendation, so I took a look at the official charts and my jaw dropped. Since they've got a hold on the clusters in the long term residential care facilities, mortality rates have flatlined. Their charts, not mine, I just overlaid them.

    528370.gif

    The resources of the state are best deployed in a strict testing and contact tracing regime in these settings and let everyone else get on with their lives. Cases have been rampant since the lockdown ended, as you'd expect, but mortality rates are trivial when compared to March/April/May.

    Aren't there 31 active clusters in nursing homes atm? I would consider that having lost control of clusters in long term residential care facilities.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,646 ✭✭✭ SCOOP 64


    Cant see moving to level 3 having a great impact.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,951 ✭✭✭ Ficheall


    begbysback wrote: »
    Just to reiterate what wise words were posted at the ending the previous thread, today is the day we take the reins back off the white coats, we are no longer heading to the point where an immunologist says we can’t step outside our front doors, a great day people.
    Well, at least you think you are wise, even if no one else does. An impressive, if misplaced, level of self-confidence.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,576 ✭✭✭ mr_edge_to_you


    SCOOP 64 wrote: »
    Cant see moving to level 3 having a great impact.

    Not a hope. Sure we're at level two already and we can't manage that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,970 ✭✭✭ alias no.9


    Aren't there 31 active clusters in nursing homes atm? I would consider that having lost control of clusters in long term residential care facilities.

    Meanwhile NPHET are busy trying to lock down the country instead of doing daily tests on all staff, residents and visitors in the at risk locations. In hindsight they ****ed up by not protecting these facilities back in March and it looks like their eyes are elsewhere once again.


  • Registered Users Posts: 26,858 ✭✭✭✭ gmisk


    Just 39 vacant icu beds is pretty scary...that isn't a huge amount of spare capacity.

    The fact NPHET forecasted 50-70 in icu by 25th October due to covid....

    Level 5 would have been extreme but they aren't taking account the economic impacts I suppose.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,357 ✭✭✭ spookwoman


    05-10-2020-p1.jpg
    05-10-2020-p2.jpg
    05-10-2020-p3.jpg
    05-10-2020-p4.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭ Infini


    SCOOP 64 wrote: »
    Cant see moving to level 3 having a great impact.

    It so far does seem to be flattening the growth rate but daily case numbers arent falling much either. Nationwide I dont know myself if it will require more drastic action but if numbers dont drop at national levels were into lockdown territorry regardless next.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,855 ✭✭✭✭ stephenjmcd




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,390 ✭✭✭ Jim_Hodge


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »
    Do non pubs close every where for level 3?
    Look at the framework
    Range of restrictions
    up to and including
    no indoor dining


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭ Gruffalux


    alias no.9 wrote: »
    . Cases have been rampant since the lockdown ended, as you'd expect, but mortality rates are trivial when compared to March/April/May.

    Cases have not been rampant since the lockdown. This is the false impression upon which people are basing flawed conclusions.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,467 ✭✭✭✭ drunkmonkey


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »
    Do non pubs close every where for level 3?

    Pubs are open all the Government plan says is in addition to the level 2 restrictions..
    "Range of restrictions
    up to and including
    no indoor dining"

    So wet pubs open but no food:confused:
    https://assets.gov.ie/87604/405b1065-055a-4ca8-9513-390ce5298b10.pdf


This discussion has been closed.
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