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29-12-2011, 16:41   #1
Sleety_Rain
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Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

A very mobile period of weather is ahead of us and we are expected to continue under the strong zonal pattern for the medium term. It will be cool/cold at times and also very mild at times.

The next 5 days will be windy and breezy throughout but a notable peak in winds has been focused around next Tuesday (3rdd January). A developed low pressure will exit Newfoundland eastwards on January 1st traveling steadily east before interacting with a forecast jetstreak by January 2nd. It will intensify strongly and is expected to push to our north into Scotland, replacing a cold maritime airstream.

The storm system will be well developed with a large windfield extending from its center. Strong and widespread gales will develop on Monday evening and overnight. The system is likely at this point to be strong enough to cause widespread gales but has the potential to become develop further.

Models are keen to develop a band of 70knot+ 925hpa winds in association with the warm front and develops widespread sustained 10metre winds of 30-35 knots inland with upto 50 knots in coastal locations.

It seems like it will be a widespread wind event, even if at this point, nothing to be overly alarmed by.

925hpa wind forecast (Used as a tool to estimate gusts)


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29-12-2011, 20:45   #2
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GFS & UKMO have it just north of Scotland

A few other models have the low South east of Iceland with another low forming over N.Ireland and N. England.



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29-12-2011, 22:19   #3
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The day I go back to work

Ahh well, I look forward to reading through this entire thread once it starts to pick up
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29-12-2011, 22:21   #4
 
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Strongest winds well north on the 18z, looks like it could develop into a strong storm though so an interesting one to watch for the next few days

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30-12-2011, 00:16   #5
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I love a good storm in winter. My outside xmas tree could get a hat-trick - Blew over yesterday - blew over today - One more time hey.
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30-12-2011, 05:00   #6
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GFS 0Z run. Windy but nothing special.

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30-12-2011, 06:35   #7
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Models are having trouble resolving this, but I believe it has potential to develop around 0300-0600 Tuesday. One model (GEM) fails to develop it at all, but ECM looks bullish. Temperature trend will be "anti-diurnal" which has been flagged as a trigger for very strong winds in past cases. Anti-diurnal means cold in daytime and mild at night basically, due to timing of fast-moving warm sector. Could be 12-13 C briefly as this feature blasts across Ireland. Should be interesting anyway.
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30-12-2011, 08:14   #8
 
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This morning's ECM has the low really deepening, but not before it reaches Ireland.



Maybe it is just me but seem a little odd that the surface trough would deepen so much while crossing overland before it really bombs over the north sea; though without doubt this model is taking the jet stream and other upper profiles into account. Still early days and plenty of room for upgrades (and downgrades obviously!)
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30-12-2011, 10:35   #9
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Track has slipped further south on the 06Z GFS.

Gusts for the south and east up to 130 km/h if that came off.
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30-12-2011, 13:32   #10
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Yes the 6z would bring some surprisingly strong winds.

You have a storm racing across the country while undergoing rapid intensification.

Dropping 10mb in just 6 hours. Although the severe wind threat would likely just last 4-6 hours.

We would be talking about gusts to 70 knots inland and above that in some exposed spots.

Quite a bit of uncertainty surronding this yet, as to when it intensifies.



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30-12-2011, 13:46   #11
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Doesn't look like being as bad, but the whole set up reminds me of the Stephen's Day Storm of 1998.

Same set up although the latest models aren't as bullish as this

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30-12-2011, 15:03   #12
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Ah ya gotta love boards.ie. Someone opens a tread about possible cold next week, 140 posts, Mod opens yet another storm in tea cup tread, attracting hardly any comments,as it has not happened 3 times I recall now after the dramatic titles, then proceeds to close the cold discussion. Tut tut. Hope it doesn't turn out cold!!
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30-12-2011, 15:12   #13
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I'm sick of these wind/storm treads , is this the highlight off our winter this year ;(
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30-12-2011, 15:27   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Madpaddy79 View Post
Ah ya gotta love boards.ie. Someone opens a tread about possible cold next week, 140 posts, Mod opens yet another storm in tea cup tread, attracting hardly any comments,as it has not happened 3 times I recall now after the dramatic titles, then proceeds to close the cold discussion. Tut tut. Hope it doesn't turn out cold!!
Just because it hasn't stormed in Dublin doesn't mean there hasn't been a storm.

There was only 1 thread that was wrong and that was about three weeks ago and i hold my hands up but that one fooled a whole lot of experts so it doesn't really bother me!

The other 2-3 storms have given very bad conditions to northern and northwestern areas.

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30-12-2011, 15:30   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Madpaddy79 View Post
Tut tut. Hope it doesn't turn out cold!!
Yes, that thought occurred to me too.....

All part of the game.
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