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Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

  • 29-12-2011 4:41pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    A very mobile period of weather is ahead of us and we are expected to continue under the strong zonal pattern for the medium term. It will be cool/cold at times and also very mild at times.

    The next 5 days will be windy and breezy throughout but a notable peak in winds has been focused around next Tuesday (3rdd January). A developed low pressure will exit Newfoundland eastwards on January 1st traveling steadily east before interacting with a forecast jetstreak by January 2nd. It will intensify strongly and is expected to push to our north into Scotland, replacing a cold maritime airstream.

    The storm system will be well developed with a large windfield extending from its center. Strong and widespread gales will develop on Monday evening and overnight. The system is likely at this point to be strong enough to cause widespread gales but has the potential to become develop further.

    Models are keen to develop a band of 70knot+ 925hpa winds in association with the warm front and develops widespread sustained 10metre winds of 30-35 knots inland with upto 50 knots in coastal locations.

    It seems like it will be a widespread wind event, even if at this point, nothing to be overly alarmed by.

    925hpa wind forecast (Used as a tool to estimate gusts)

    Rtavn10813.png


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    GFS & UKMO have it just north of Scotland

    A few other models have the low South east of Iceland with another low forming over N.Ireland and N. England.

    12010306_2912.gif

    12010312_2912.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    The day I go back to work :(

    Ahh well, I look forward to reading through this entire thread once it starts to pick up :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Strongest winds well north on the 18z, looks like it could develop into a strong storm though so an interesting one to watch for the next few days

    gfs-0-114_cjl5.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 194 ✭✭rilz


    I love a good storm in winter. My outside xmas tree could get a hat-trick - Blew over yesterday - blew over today - One more time hey.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    GFS 0Z run. Windy but nothing special.

    186607.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Models are having trouble resolving this, but I believe it has potential to develop around 0300-0600 Tuesday. One model (GEM) fails to develop it at all, but ECM looks bullish. Temperature trend will be "anti-diurnal" which has been flagged as a trigger for very strong winds in past cases. Anti-diurnal means cold in daytime and mild at night basically, due to timing of fast-moving warm sector. Could be 12-13 C briefly as this feature blasts across Ireland. Should be interesting anyway.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    This morning's ECM has the low really deepening, but not before it reaches Ireland.

    em.gif

    Maybe it is just me but seem a little odd that the surface trough would deepen so much while crossing overland before it really bombs over the north sea; though without doubt this model is taking the jet stream and other upper profiles into account. Still early days and plenty of room for upgrades (and downgrades obviously!)


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Track has slipped further south on the 06Z GFS.

    Gusts for the south and east up to 130 km/h if that came off.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Yes the 6z would bring some surprisingly strong winds.

    You have a storm racing across the country while undergoing rapid intensification.

    Dropping 10mb in just 6 hours. Although the severe wind threat would likely just last 4-6 hours.

    We would be talking about gusts to 70 knots inland and above that in some exposed spots.

    Quite a bit of uncertainty surronding this yet, as to when it intensifies.

    Rtavn901.png

    Rtavn961.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Doesn't look like being as bad, but the whole set up reminds me of the Stephen's Day Storm of 1998.

    Same set up although the latest models aren't as bullish as this

    Rrea00119981226.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 171 ✭✭Madpaddy79


    Ah ya gotta love boards.ie. Someone opens a tread about possible cold next week, 140 posts, Mod opens yet another storm in tea cup tread, attracting hardly any comments,as it has not happened 3 times I recall now after the dramatic titles, then proceeds to close the cold discussion. Tut tut. Hope it doesn't turn out cold!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    I'm sick of these wind/storm treads , is this the highlight off our winter this year ;(


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Madpaddy79 wrote: »
    Ah ya gotta love boards.ie. Someone opens a tread about possible cold next week, 140 posts, Mod opens yet another storm in tea cup tread, attracting hardly any comments,as it has not happened 3 times I recall now after the dramatic titles, then proceeds to close the cold discussion. Tut tut. Hope it doesn't turn out cold!!

    Just because it hasn't stormed in Dublin doesn't mean there hasn't been a storm.

    There was only 1 thread that was wrong and that was about three weeks ago and i hold my hands up but that one fooled a whole lot of experts so it doesn't really bother me!

    The other 2-3 storms have given very bad conditions to northern and northwestern areas.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,963 Mod ✭✭✭✭greysides


    Madpaddy79 wrote: »
    Tut tut. Hope it doesn't turn out cold!!

    Yes, that thought occurred to me too.....:D

    All part of the game.

    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert

    The ultimate purpose of debate is not to produce consensus. It's to promote critical thinking.

    Adam Grant



  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Madpaddy79 wrote: »
    Ah ya gotta love boards.ie. Someone opens a tread about possible cold next week, 140 posts, Mod opens yet another storm in tea cup tread, attracting hardly any comments,as it has not happened 3 times I recall now after the dramatic titles, then proceeds to close the cold discussion. Tut tut. Hope it doesn't turn out cold!!

    Is that you Darkman2? :D:D:D:D

    D


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Madpaddy79 wrote: »
    Ah ya gotta love boards.ie. Someone opens a tread about possible cold next week, 140 posts, Mod opens yet another storm in tea cup tread, attracting hardly any comments,as it has not happened 3 times I recall now after the dramatic titles, then proceeds to close the cold discussion. Tut tut. Hope it doesn't turn out cold!!

    ^^^ This Guy Clearly doesnt understand the meaning of "Possible" and how chaotic the atmosphere can be even in the short term ..:rolleyes:


    Have to say though... ECM ,the west coast is pretty much gonna have Gale force gusts from 2moro for POSSIBLE near 72 hrs! Anyone investing on wind power? :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Looks worrying this run. Bit deeper and bit further north as a result.

    This one has lots of potential.

    Widespread gales and then a real bash of violent storm force for the northwest.

    But widespread sustained above 30kts gusting 70kts+

    Rtavn841.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Deeper on the 12z GFS, looking like a widespread event for a change with potential for some serious gusts around here

    gfs-0-87-3h_lbp8.png

    Really bombs on this run, 985mb to 945mb in 24 hours!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    GFS 12Z Upgrade i would say

    186650.png


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    No one wants to post the UKMO - no?;)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Harps wrote: »
    Deeper on the 12z GFS, looking like a widespread event for a change with potential for some serious gusts around here

    Really bombs on this run, 985mb to 945mb in 24 hours!

    Beautiful chart!! really nasty looking cold front associated with the low as well. :) Could we be looking at the first major squall line of the season??

    Wait, must not get carried away.. it too far out to be real..!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EoELEGKVBo


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    I was thinking of you when I saw the chart :D About time we get a good nationwide event

    On the UKMO, the centre is well north but it deepens to 945mb by the time it reaches us, that'd be a serious storm if a bit further south. Still a lot of uncertainty on track & intensity as always but hopefully it doesn't go the way of every other storm this year and track north.

    UW96-21_uhh9.GIF


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    darkman2 wrote: »
    No one wants to post the UKMO - no?;)

    UW96-21.GIF?30-17

    Ummh i wonder will this be the true track as she deepens earlier also
    Not too unlike the 1998 storm at the moment

    archives-1998-12-27-0-0.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    This 5 day cloud cover forecast from met.fu Berlin has, like the ECMWF, the low not really bombing until it passes to our east, though the run is only updated once every day so hopefully a more encouraging run tomorrow:

    http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/terra3d/video/skycover.mpg


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    This system is currently a small low pressure area that originated up near MT's neck of the woods and will not change much as it makes its way across the northern US over the weekend, though its associated upper trough deepens. It will have a minor effect in the northeastern US states, but the system following behind it looks like a right Nor'easter and should bring widespread snow chaos to much of those states early next week.

    Our system gets caught under the RRQ of a strong 180 knot jet streak, and I would be more confident at this stage that the models will do a better job of resolving this jet, given the better data coverage. I would imagine that there will be less chops and changes with this system's track than there were with Joachim, but I have a hunch it will deepen sooner and turn a bit further north than they are showing at the moment, à la Rosenbloom rule. That may not make much difference to the actual winds we will get but I can see that slight shift northwards taking place as I think the Azores ridge will hold strong.

    186661.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Our system gets caught under the RRQ of a strong 180 knot jet streak.

    I wonder Su, is this the very reason that the ECMWF this morning did not develop the low fully until it passed to our east? in that under such a strong jet, the wave depression barely even gets a chance reach its mature stage by the time it reaches us? Anyways, ECMWF 12z rolling out soon, it better be a good 'un! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 171 ✭✭Madpaddy79


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Madpaddy79 wrote: »
    Ah ya gotta love boards.ie. Someone opens a tread about possible cold next week, 140 posts, Mod opens yet another storm in tea cup tread, attracting hardly any comments,as it has not happened 3 times I recall now after the dramatic titles, then proceeds to close the cold discussion. Tut tut. Hope it doesn't turn out cold!!

    ^^^ This Guy Clearly doesnt understand the meaning of "Possible" and how chaotic the atmosphere can be even in the short term ..:rolleyes:


    Have to say though... ECM ,the west coast is pretty much gonna have Gale force gusts from 2moro for POSSIBLE near 72 hrs! Anyone investing on wind power? :rolleyes:
    I
    It's more about the "atmosphere" in boards.ie!! Now back to the topic


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    ECMWF has low taking on a more southerly track than that of the GFS:

    186664.gif

    at face value it seems to have a tighter gradient over the south of Ireland as it passes over but hard to tell just going by these 24hr increment charts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Evelyn talking about perhaps storm force winds and 20-30mm rain in South on Tuesday?!:eek:


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    ECMWF keeps us guessing with another totally different track and later bombing, the southern part of the country getting hit this time albeit less severe.

    ECM1-96_afi7.GIF

    Does anyone have a link to the 6 hour ECM charts? Someone posted it a few weeks ago, think it was a Slovenian site or something similar

    Edit: Beaten to it again!


This discussion has been closed.
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