Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

maquiladora

Just coming into view at the end of the hi-res NMM 12Z run.

Storm is 10mb deeper than the GFS at 36 hours (as far as it goes).

Gusts up to almost 80mph on the southwest coast. 70-75mph gusts inland in the south. 60-70mph gusts pretty much everywhere else.

We'll get a proper view of it on this model on the 18Z.

Deep Easterly

Some really serious winds for the North Sea for Tuesday as well, and as much as I love storms, I really wouldn't like to be on an oil rig during this one.

M.T. Cranium

Would take the more intense depictions, the initialization seems a bit off as the storm is currently below 984 mbs from 987 mb reading at Banquereau where the wind is 32 kts gusting 42 (and passed three hours ago by the windshift). Satellite imagery shows a tightly wound spiral at about 46N 54W for an 18z position.

Perhaps ECM will have a better grasp. The MTC model places the low near Belmullet at 03z at 968 mbs deepening to 948 near Dundee by 09z. Would suggest that Weathercheck's wind predictions likely to verify but would add possible 70-75 kt gusts in exposed areas of central Ireland due to rapid pressure drop on approach.

maquiladora

Can't really tell much from the 12Z ECM on Meteociel based on the 24 and 48 hour frames because it moves so quickly. I guess it looks similar to the GFS but a tad further north?

WeatherUnderground map will show it better.

Edit : 964mb off the northwest coast at 39 hours. Further north and more intense than the GFS.



Reaches 954mb over Scotland.

Min

Met Eireann going for violent storm force 11 winds along NW coasts.

maquiladora

Min wrote: »

Met Eireann going for violent storm force 11 winds along NW coasts.

Yep. Siobhan said gale force winds over land and reaching 11 on northwest coasts.

All depends on the track, if it ends up being closer to the GFS then the west/southwest/south would be getting strong winds, if not then the northwest would get the worst of it, but they are used it up there. :P

Min

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep. Siobhan said gale force winds over land and reaching 11 on northwest coasts.

All depends on the track, if it ends up being closer to the GFS then the west/southwest/south would be getting strong winds, if not then the northwest would get the worst of it, but they are used it up there. :P

Yes they are, they have everything that will blow down, blown down already.

It does seem ME are getting a bit more concerned about the storm.

Sponge Bob

Todays IR Images from HERE, composite of 06 12 and 18z

DOCARCH

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep. Siobhan said gale force winds over land and reaching 11 on northwest coasts.

She did not go into much detail and did not show chart for tomorrow night. Keeping her cards...close......to............her.....................chest. Ahhhhhh. :P

Redsunset

I actually thought they were still making no biggy of it. Feel myself too that it will be no great shakes either, away from north west.

Su Campu

ASCAT winds at 1323 and 1502 today.






Ship WKPY reported 45 knot winds on the southern side of the low at 18 Z.

ninebeanrows

Su Campu wrote: »

ASCAT winds at 1323 and 1502 today.



Ship WKPY reported 45 knot winds on the southern side of the low at 18 Z.

Yes, surprisingly strong. Models show it weakening slightly or staying at this intensity over the next 12-18 hours.

maquiladora

In case anyone missed it, MT has updated the daily forecast thread with his latest thoughts on this.

Redsunset

12z ECM

maquiladora

18Z GFS should be interesting. I think we'll see it shift the track further north a bit more in line with the other models, but ya never really know.
Looking forward to see how the hi-res model handles it too.

Still no warning from Met Eireann yet. I'd say that will go up later tonight or early tomorrow morning.

North Atlantic WV loop : http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

Deep Easterly

Just to compare the ECMWF 12z run with the ECMWF 00z run for 0600utc Tuesday:



Very little change in the actual track and intensity of its storm low projection, only real significant difference I can see it that the low is not quite as low on the 12z run (about 5.0mb higher)

maquiladora

NWS have shifted the track slightly south since the chart at 14:52.

Min

Siobhan gave a more generalised storm for Monday night and early Tuesday.

maquiladora

Min wrote: »

Siobhan gave a more generalised storm for Monday night and early Tuesday.

Forgot to watch it. What was different from the last one?

Min

maquiladora wrote: »

Forgot to watch it. What was different from the last one?

Yeah.

The violent storm force 11 for the NW had disappeared.

She had a synoptic chart with wet and windy over the storm system, no details on how powerful the storm would be.

But it will have squally showers in it's wake.

Nothing spectacular in other words, not high on detail.

dsmythy

Surely too much development going on already for it to be any further south than the other storms ths season? I'd say a wild one in the NW on the way anyway.

Deep Easterly

Pretty much 'as you were' on the latest EMHI:

http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,419

If anything, there seems to be a subtle decrease in windspeeds along the west coast but maybe just being a little too pedantic.

ninebeanrows

I am prempting that the NAE will show this further south! Just comparing T+9 on the 18z to t+15 on the 12z.

Do i have a problem!:D:eek::o

18z +9


12z Equiv +9

Deep Easterly

Weathercheck wrote: »

Do i have a problem!:D:eek::o

Yep, you do!

Here you go WC, you are right, slightly further south:




For anyone who is interested in animating charts, this is a great site:

http://www.myspacegens.com/handler.php?gen=animatedimage

you can upload up to 50 images, set speed of each one and keep the whole quality of the image.

Uploading is a sinch too on this little pic uploader site: http://wthax.org/process

ninebeanrows

GFS 18z trending slightly deeper slightly further north at this point.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Come on, have a hug, there there

maquiladora

Yep 18Z GFS going a bit further north, I was expecting that, I think it had the most southerly track of all the 12Z models.

18Z NAE is further south so far alright.

ninebeanrows

Rapidly deepening and moving storm hitting Ireland at T30hrs on 18z GFS

Centre further north but more intense on this run.

ninebeanrows

Ummmmm Looks quite severe for some on the 18z

Deep Easterly

In other news, thunderstorm off the west coast at the moment. It will of course die out before it reaches here.