Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

ninebeanrows

Sponge Bob wrote: »

There is another storm on the night of the 05 / 06 which could be of interest were it to move a tad south. Not worth a thread right now though and probably dependent on the setup in the aftermath of the 'Dublin' storm.......... as we should call this one

What are you talking about? Please stop this trolling and do not reply to this message on this thread. PM me if you have any problems with this.

darkman2

GFS control run has it slightly further South and not achieving quite as much depth but maintaining a very tight gradient.



UKMO going for the slightly more Northern track. Going down to the wire with this one.

Redsunset

Just wanna point out too that although the GFS haas the system tracking to the north west there are a number of sets showing a more southerly track, all eyes on the ECM

maquiladora

12Z HIRLAM the most southerly of the 12Z models.

Deep Easterly

ECM taking the low further north, more or less in line with the HIRLAM chart Maq posted above.

ninebeanrows

ECM shows a rapidly intensifying low racing to be centred in central Scotland @ 72hrs.

Would bring a swathe of very strong winds across the country. Extreme in places.

The low bombs over 30mb in just 24 hours and is beginning to appear that it will be quite disruptive for some areas.

ninebeanrows

The storm has an uncanny resemblance to the Stephen's Day Storm of 1998.

It really is very similar.

Below are the charts tracking the 1998 Storm from 0z 26th

sunbabe08

sweet jaysus, that storm is gonna hit us good on tuesday :eek:

DOCARCH

ME (well at least on RTE forecast after 6pm news) still has low centre tracking across the country with strongest winds for the south coast.

Birdnuts

If its anything like the 98' storm then my in-laws near Belmullet are in for one hell of a night:eek:

maquiladora

Looks like the UK Met Office will have to change their warnings. As expected, ECM has shifted the track further north.

Should be interesting to see if the northward trend continues on the 18Z GFS.

maquiladora

DOCARCH wrote: »

ME (well at least on RTE forecast after 6pm news) still has low centre tracking across the country with strongest winds for the south coast.

That was based on the 0Z ECM. The ECM has now come into line with the other models on its latest run and tracks the low north of us.

Deep Easterly

Another exclusively Donegal event so. It seems to me that the over the last few years, that winter storm tracks have been tending more and more northwards, not so much in a linear sense but overall in general. The last half decent storm here in the west was Jan 2009

M.T. Cranium

Also looks similar to 5-6 Jan 1991 especially the origins of that storm.

May be more than just a Donegal (and Mayo) coastal event on the ECM track in particular. I think it's becoming more certain after this model consensus shift but would say tomorrow 12z runs for more assurance on that.

Min

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Also looks similar to 5-6 Jan 1991 especially the origins of that storm.

May be more than just a Donegal (and Mayo) coastal event on the ECM track in particular. I think it's becoming more certain after this model consensus shift but would say tomorrow 12z runs for more assurance on that.

I was at a funeral for that storm, and it caused damage at my local church where a part of the ceiling collapsed.
There was a funeral there and it had to be held at the bottom of the church.

If we had one like that again, it would be powerful enough.

Deep Easterly

Exeter latest 60hr:

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVJ89.TIF

further south!

Birdnuts

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Also looks similar to 5-6 Jan 1991 especially the origins of that storm.

May be more than just a Donegal (and Mayo) coastal event on the ECM track in particular. I think it's becoming more certain after this model consensus shift but would say tomorrow 12z runs for more assurance on that.

On the latest Fax charts it looks to my untrained eye that it "bombs" up the West coast like Hurricane Debbie

Harps

Interesting FAX, hope for you yet DE!

Hooter23

Rain is so heavy right now in galway wind picking up too
Quite a vicious band of rain that was big plastic table out garden thrown up in the air by the gusty winds.
And theres no storm due till monday night lol

Redsunset

Yep has continued to deepen in each run on the ECM so brings it away, so just a very wet and windy period for majority of country.

Su Campu

I had a feeling from the word go that this would deepen sooner and track more north than the models were showing.

Irishmarinelife

Weathercheck wrote: »

The storm has an uncanny resemblance to the Stephen's Day Storm of 1998.

It really is very similar.

If I remember correct, wasn't there a few inches of snow at sea level in the west the morning after that storm?

Deep Easterly

EMHI HIRLAM 18z run:



Taking the north root but interesting expansive zone of gales (force 8/9) running up towards the west coast. Low is deepening so we should see even stronger winds being projected beyond the limits of the timeframe of this particular run over the next few ones. (contingent, of course, on whether this track is locked onto or not by the higher res outputs)

maquiladora

18Z GFS goes on a more southerly track. Less intense system.

ninebeanrows

18z bumps it south abit.

Would be quite wild for much of Ireland.

And yes as alluded to by DE, there is wide swathe of winds associated with the frontal passage which will bring widespread severe gales and storm winds in places.

The most noteworthy thing about this system is its speed combined with it undergoing rapid intensification while crossing the country and also the heavy rain.

Going to be a hairy night.

ninebeanrows

So what is the reality of this.

Places like Roches Point could see gusts to 80 knots perhaps higher.

For the likes of Dublin and Casement, gusts 60-70KT likely.

Combined with driving rain.

Although the peak of the high winds will just last 3-4 hours.

maquiladora

Quite a lot of the 18Z GFS ensembles show an even more southerly track but as an even weaker, open system.

maquiladora

18Z HIRLAM a bit further north than its 12Z. At 60 hours isobars are packed tighter than any other model on Meteociel. Some intense winds for Scotland if that came off.

maquiladora

A final chart before 2012.

jirafa

Could be batten down the hatches time.......:D:D:D:D:D:):):)